Brexit, elections, Party Politics, Uncategorized

Last Word Before the 2019 EU Elections

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The last Brexit Party rally before the poll has taken place, at Olympia in West London:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7055483/Brexit-Partys-EU-election-success-topple-Corbyn-vows-Farage.html

3,000 people paid £2.50 to hear Nigel Farage speak. How many System politicians can get 3,000 to hear them speak? In fact, few would even get an audience of 300. Maybe 30, but only if entry were gratis. In fact, many of those listening to Farage had also paid a voluntary £25 donation to Brexit Party (read the report).

The size of the rally was not quite as impressive as those of Mosley in the 1930s, but you can’t have everything!

On 16 July 1939, Mosley addressed 30,000 at Earl’s Court in West London.

Returning to our contemporary political reality, here are the latest opinion poll readings:

Note the variation between the YouGov and ComRes polls. There is usually variation, but not such wide variation. The YouGov poll is the more recent, relying on polling done in the past 3 days (19-21 May). It shows Brexit Party at 37%. The Conservatives have slumped to a miserable 5th place, on merely 7%! This is incredible! As for Labour, it has been overtaken by the LibDems.

Obviously, EU elections are not the same as Westminster ones, but I think that we are seeing more here than the sort of EU election surge that we have seen before with both UKIP and to a lesser extent and long ago (in 1989) the Green Party.

Anecdotal evidence is always suspect, but then so are “statistics”. I concede that I meet few people these days, but everyone that I do meet, or encounter, or hear, is voting Brexit Party in the EU election.

I am inclined to believe that, with only a day to go, Brexit Party is still, even now when it is polling around 37%, being underestimated. I should not be surprised were Brexit Party to top 40% on Thursday.

It is clear that the most fixated Remainers are gravitating to the LibDems, with most of the rest voting Labour. The new party, Change UK, has sunk like a stone and I shall be surprised if it gets a vote of 5% (as polling indicates). Its “rallies” have all been tiny meetings, with audience numbers often in single figures. Even its main London meeting audience (disregarding journalists) only numbered about 40.

MSM scribblers and the Twitterati wastes of space are now discussing as to whether the EU elections constitute a kind of referendum on UK EU membership. How can it be, when the Labour, Conservative and even Green parties are internally split?

It is clear to me that the EU election in the UK will be dominated by Brexit Party candidates. What is really significant is that Brexit Party doing really well will give it a launching pad for Westminster.

The important poll will be the Peterborough by-election on 6 June. If Brexit Party can win that, it will be on its way.

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/notes-from-the-peterborough-by-election/

People are angry about what has happened in and to this country over decades, since 1989 particularly. Finally they have realized that the guilty parties are literally that, the political parties (and their own apathy, but let’s not look in the mirror…). The Conservatives, having destroyed so much over the past decade, are the primary target for the wrath of the people, including that of many who until recently were themselves voting Conservative.

Brexit and its betrayal has finally crystallized the feelings of disappointment and treachery.

The Conservatives are facing a perfect storm in the EU elections:

  • the pathetic Prime Minister, Theresa May;
  • the mediocre or poor level of most other leading Conservative MPs;
  • Brexit, fake Brexit, and betrayal of the popular decision in the 2016 Referendum;
  • the rise of Brexit Party to near 40% in vote-share and perhaps, on the day, beyond;
  • the defection of Conservative pro-EU/Remain voters to the LibDems

The real crisis for the Conservative Party will come after the EU elections. The Peterborough by-election was noted above. The Conservative Party is rated by the bookmakers as no better than a 20/1 shot for that by-election. Incredible when one considers that from 2005-2017, Peterborough had a Conservative MP who was beaten in 2017 by only 607 votes (1.3%). Even when Peterborough had Labour MPs in the 1990s, 1980s etc, the Conservatives were always closely second-placed.

Then there is the Conservative Party membership, officially 124,000 but most of those are people in the sixties, seventies, eighties or even nineties. The active membership may be no more than a few thousand. This is important for several reasons: lack of canvassers etc, lack of subscriptions, but also the fact that, once Theresa May goes, if MPs cannot elect a new Conservative leader outright, the top 2 in the MPs ballots will go for general membership vote. Who will the aged Conservative membership pick? Will their chosen leader be in any way acceptable to the British public as a whole? That seems doubtful.

What an odd system, when a Prime Minister can resign and then be replaced by some new leader, chosen by about 150 Conservative MPs or —at most— by maybe 60,000 aged Conservative Party members, and who then becomes Prime Minister automatically, with no obligation to call a general election until 2022!

People in the UK are outgrowing both the present political/electoral system and the existing System parties.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oswald_Mosley

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/notes-from-the-peterborough-by-election/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterborough_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/12/what-is-brexit-party-why-does-it-exist-what-are-its-chances/

Latest

Brexit Party now (22 May 2019 at 1800 hrs) at 38% for EU elections (acc. to Opinium)

Meanwhile, Panelbase has a new poll re. Westminster elections: Labour on 31%, Conservatives way behind on 21%, Brexit Party on 19%.

Using Electoral Calculus [ https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html ], that Panelbase poll indicates that a general election held now would produce the following result: Brexit Party bloc of 19 seats. Labour majority of 44 seats. Conservative loss of 132 seats, including those of Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Justine Greening, Stephen Crabb, Boris Johnson, Grant Shapps etc. Happy time! (except for the Labour majority, but the Cons have to be stamped on now; should have happened long ago)

u-boatnight1

Update, 23 May 2019

Election day, 1800 hrs. I happened to see an interesting Twitter thread analysis from a journalist. From a couple of days ago. Read the whole thread.

Update, 27 July 2019

It will be be seen above that the videos of Mosley’s massive 1939 rally in London are now “not available” because YouTube (aka, for many, “JewTube”) has closed the account. This is part of a huge censorship campaign now spreading across the Internet. (((They))) are behind it. It is a covert censorship, banning and barring operation to close down free speech in the UK and across the Western world. It affects, inter alia, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Amazon; many others too.

CZpdYWeW0AQXGc_

In view of the duty to fight the evil noted, I have posted, below, other links.

https://www.oswaldmosley.com/

http://www.freepdf.info/index.php?post/Mosley-Oswald-My-life

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Life_(Oswald_Mosley_autobiography)

This is also interesting

16 thoughts on “Last Word Before the 2019 EU Elections”

  1. I notice Peston claiming the other night that in his words “he has met very few MP’s who don’t think Boris will not become leader and PM” – if so, then it will be by default and he will no doubt rule briefly!

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    2. Most MPs (Con ones too) despise Boris Idiot, but at same time recognize that Boris is “popular” as a kind of public entertainer. Even a few percent on Conservative Party national vote would save the skins of dozens of Con MPs, so they may vote for Boris as leader purely out of self-interest. In the country generally, he is by no means as popular as the Daily Mail makes out. A Boris Con Party leadership means a Corbyn premiership, probably.

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      1. After Leadsom’s resignation tonight i wonder if May will still be PM by the time of the Euro Elections?

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      2. I just heard of the resignation. Just before the EU elections! If Andrea Leadsom were an officer or soldier in the field she would be court-martialled! Theresa May is clinging on. I am not sure why. I can only imagine that she is waiting until her party is all but wiped out tomorrow. Even then, why wait?

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    1. I just read your linked article. Thanks for that. Simon Jenkins writes so not because his conclusion must be, but because he wishes it to be. He has left out another alternative: that enough people are disgusted by the MPs in the Commons that they replace them (whether in 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022), either by the Brexit Party getting enough seats or by the Brexit Party splitting votes and so resulting in the destruction of the Conservative Party. The Labour Party may be sliding too. That is the importance of the Brexit Party, its role in breaking down the post-1945 and even post-1918 norm.

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  3. Andrea Leadsom is a slimy little snake but that should be expected from a member of the CONSservative Party. If she was an honourable lady then why didn’t she resign from the cabinet in November when Mayhem’s Remain In All But Name ‘withdrawal’ agreement was unveiled? Still, she isn’t as bad as Michael Gove now he really is an untrustworthy and two faced weasel/backstabber and also a rabid pro Zionist who may as well be a member of Likud rather than the British Tories.

    I wonder who they will choose to replace Teresa with? I have an awful feeling their pet ethnic and Islamist Savid Javid will be the one rather than the court jester Boris.

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    1. I despise all or almost all likely “Conservative” leader-candidates, obviously. I daresay that Boris Idiot will face much opposition from MPs who know him all too well, but at the same time the Con MPs know that, thanks to the uncritical msm, Boris has profile as a “serious” candidate with the public, which is infuriating in view of his patent incompetence, dishonesty and stupidity. A little Eton and Oxford gloss and a little Greek and Latin still goes a long way in Britain…

      Those MPs need their party not to be slaughtered, in order to keep their seats. On the most basic level £80,000 a year, very generous expenses too, outside incomes available (eg would a pretty thick fellow like Johnny Mercer MP get that £80,000, the expenses –eg 2nd home in London etc– AND about £100,000 from “consultancy” fees in any other job? He would be lucky to get £50,000 if not an MP). There are hundreds like him.

      That is Boris’s trump card, his (supposed) public profile.

      As to Sajid Javid, and incredibly for a Home Secretary, he supported the lawless “antifa” idiots and I have seen how he doormats for the sinister “Campaign Against AntiSemitism” too. He’s a blot on the political scene. Potentially a danger. He might do anything. Rootless.

      I think that many Con MPs may support Rory Stewart, but that is more or less a guess, really: I don’t know how much MP support he has.

      Of course, there is a distinction between Theresa May as Con leader and Mrs May as PM. She may resign as Con leader and STILL be PM until there is a new Con leader. So she may in theory be PM for weeks or even months. Or she may just go and leave the country in the hands of another. Constitutionally tricky. If Theresa May resigns as Con leader, but tries to hang on as PM, she would be vulnerable to a confidence vote in the Commons.

      It may be that Labour will bring a confidence vote whoever is standing there. Would the Con vote in the Commons stand up? Would the DUP support it?

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      1. Rory Stewart does seem to be the only potential replacement who isn’t a snide little piece of excrement/total backstabber/creep (Michael Gove being a particularly bad example) or wholly lacking in the IQ department. It is said the Tories don’t always choose someone from the front runners so he is in with a chance. Boris has a parliamentary seat which is now within range of falling to Labour so, perhaps, Tory MPs may not wish to have as PM someone who could lose their constituency? He should have stayed at that plum and very safe Tory seat in the lovely town (I’ve visited it) of Henley.

        As the Tories now don’t even make the pretence of being conservative let alone actually being that way inclined I suppose Phillip ‘the Undertaker’ Hammond could be PM soon!

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      2. I know Henley on Thames very well, both the town and the river, on which I have both rowed (early 1970s) and operated an underpowered local hire launch (1977, I think). I was brought up (partly) only about 8 miles from there. I even (in 1972 or 1973) visited the then Conservative Party office (Michael Heseltine was the MP then). Admittedly, I was last in Henley many years ago.

        The latest poll https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131809405127790594 —if realized— would mean Lab 260 MPs (66 short of majority), Brexit Party 163, Con 127 (and Boris Idiot would have to find a job).

        MSM talking heads saying that whoever wins Con leadership will “have to” hold a General Election this year. I wonder. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, surely?

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    1. The ONLY form of voting for this quasi religious CULT that makes ANY form of sense. If only the British would take more interest in politics and not be mesmerised by cultists like Farage. Mind you, the fact they don’t perhaps isn’t their fault entirely when we have such an archaic electoral system that effectively prevents true political diversity from being expressed. Put simply, FPTP has snuffed out many political philosophies ie nationalism so much that many Brits simply don’t know they exist thereby making Tory snake oil salesmen like Farage appear credible. People on the Continent with PR grow up knowing politics involves loads of different viewpoints and would find our fossilised ‘choice’ between. Tory and Labour very bizarre.

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      1. Yes again. British politics has been a cricket or football game. Two sides and a clear winner, usually. It is morphing into 3-dimensional chess.

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  5. Ian, the Tories might think they have a small chance of retaining many of their seats by trying to cut and run and going to the country pretty much as soon as they have elected a new leader before what I shall now call from this day forward The Drunk’s policy free CULT gets any more traction. It is either that or waiting to the end of this parliament and hoping something turns up.

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    1. Yes. The msm is once again puffing Boris Johnson as the MP everyone loves. My own view is that he is or may be loved by some journalists and by a high proportion of the old ladies who are now the majority of the Con Party, but not by most voters. My impression is that he is very widely despised. Even if three-quarters of the Con Party love him, that only amounts to between 80,000 and 110,000 people out of an electorate of about 40 million. I think that the Cons will be disappointed if they do elect him.

      I had thought that a general election this year was very likely. Brexit Party has changed everything. The Cons may try to limp on and hope that Brexit Party deflates as UKIP did. Whether their new leader can get support enough in the Commons even to survive is an open question.

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