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The System and its entourage of “woke” idiots is very fragile. Even a picture of the cover of a book is enough to trigger a panic.
Tweets seen
Unless a nuclear missile lands on Kiev one day.
So the “Conservative” Party has now alienated the” “young” generally (maybe 90% of those under 30), the working families, the unemployed, most voters under 60, both those who support “refugees” incoming and also those who do not want more migrant-invaders, those renting properties because unable to buy, those wanting clean rivers and other environmental improvements, and now those who are sick and/or disabled and who are not already anti-Con.
Many, perhaps most, of those getting disability benefits are over 60, i.e. the only demographic until recently still supporting the Conservative Party.
The trend of things electoral seems to be that the hard core of Conservative Party support for the expected 2024 General Election will be persons over 60 who 1. have no opinion either way about the migration invasion, who 2. are homeowners without any mortgage obligation, who 3. are not short of money, 4. who do not receive any State benefits at all (beyond the State Pension itself), and 5. who do not object to a government (at Cabinet level) largely composed of non-whites.
There is at least a possibility that Sunak will suspend the Triple Lock on State pensions, as he did when Chancellor. As I predicted on the blog at the time, that first decision cut away the bedrock of pensioner electoral support for (and trust in) the Conservative Party; the fall in Con Party fortunes dates from that time a couple of years ago.
I begin to think that Sunak will be lucky to keep even 20% of the popular vote, though I still see Labour as not offering anything much to the British people (and, after all, Starmer’s policies are not, in reality, going to be much different to those of Sunak).
I should think that, despite the fact that the Sunak government is doomed, the next election in terms of seats will be decided by many voters making their decision in the final days of the campaign.
More tweets seen
I did not know that he was still around; I recall reading his book, Coup d’Etat, around 1978. Some British Army fellow “borrowed” it, and I was unable to get it back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Luttwak; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%89tat:_A_Practical_Handbook
It is a notorious fact that armies and states often prepare to fight the last war, the war already fought. In 1939, Poland collapsed within 5 weeks after powerful German forces invaded from the west, indeed from west, north, and south simultaneously on and after 1 September 1939.
The Polish forces were hopelessly outmanouvered and outgunnned. They withdrew to the southeast, only to be outplayed when Soviet forces invaded from the easterly direction on 17 September 1939. Faced with attacks from all sides, the Poles had no choice but to surrender de facto by 6 October 1939, though there never was a formal surrender.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland.
Notoriously, the Poles, in one famous engagement, made a hopeless cavalry charge against the latest German tanks. The Germans were fighting (as it turned out) the Second World War, whereas the Poles were using the tactics not even of the First World War but of the 19th Century.
Scrolling on to 2023, we see the Polish Army more powerful than it has been for centuries, but its strength lies in armour, and in numbers. Second World War strengths. The Russians may or may not be able to equal that, not without general mobilization, but Russia also has well over 6,000 nuclear weapons of various kinds, mostly missiles. Nuclear missiles (etc) against tanks?
The old Soviet Union also had “suitcase bombs”, capable of destroying city centres to a diameter of perhaps two miles. Does Russia have a similar programme now? I do not know, but would not bet against it.
What is disturbing at present is that, even more than in 1939, the war drums are beating far louder than the plaintive cries for peace.
Not just in Poland and Ukraine, but across the world, especially in the USA and UK, and in the EU.
It is a warning, “a shot across the bow”. The fastest, most advanced Russian missiles, with nuclear warheads, cannot be intercepted at present. Stop fuelling the Kiev regime, stop getting entangled in war with Russia.
Late tweets seen
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 