In recent weeks, the decline of established or System political parties across the “West”(together with the System mainstream media that supports them) has become common currency among commentators. One does not have have to look at the United States, France etc to see that the narrative has resonance; it is happening in the UK too.
In Britain, a General Election is about to be held, an election which has only one serious contender for the mantle of government. In England, only the Conservative Party has any chance of forming a government. The bookmakers have that chance at something like 1/30 (thirty to one on) for a majority government, whereas Labour is around 40/1 against.
Day by day, new blows hit Labour: dozens of MPs quitting or about to quit; sitting MPs openly disrespecting the party leader, Corbyn; opinion polls showing Labour between 23% and 30% (mostly about 25%) with Conservatives on 40% to 50%; other polls showing how far Labour has fallen in its previous heartlands.
The latest polls from Scotland show the Conservatives on about 30%, second to the still-dominant SNP, but with Labour at perhaps only 18% (on some showings, as low as 15%). In Wales, the figures are equally stark: Con 30%, Labour 20%. We have not seen such in our lifetimes. I was born in 1956 and for most of the years since, until very recently, Labour dominated the heavily-industrialized regions of Scotland and Wales. The heavy industry is now mostly departed, along with the industrial proletariat. The volatile “precariat” which replaced it was still willing to vote Labour in return for social security, free education and the NHS. That bought or traditional loyalty and fealty is now rapidly breaking down. We see not even the possibility, but the probability that the Conservatives will push Labour into second place in Wales and third place in Scotland.
In England, there is, as yet, no “third party” to challenge the two main System parties. UKIP is a dead duck, becoming daily more akin to the Monster Raving Loony Party or one of the smaller faux-nationalist groups such as the English Democrats which are, in effect, offshoots of provincial Conservative Party constituency associations. UKIP built up slowly to a peak in 2014. since when it has steadily deflated. It will win no MPs in the General Election of 2017 and will slowly submerge into oblivion.
The Liberal Democrats are now reprising their role as the catch-all dustbin for homeless votes and voters. They may get a few seats in the upcoming election, perhaps ending with a small bloc of about 15. However, they cannot be seen as a party going places. Their success would be merely to survive at all.
Labour will be reduced to between 100-200 seats, probably around 150 (out of 650) in the 2017 General Election. Boundary changes before 2022 will then reduce Labour further. It is not now unlikely to see Labour as a party which, within a decade, may disappear entirely or dwindle to a few dozen seats. The only demographic which now favours Labour above Conservative is that of non-whites. That seems to be Labour’s future: a smaller niche party supported mainly by non-whites and public sector workers.
Peter Oborne has said that Conservative support is “a mile wide and an inch deep”. Very true. However, its main weapon is that it has no opposition. This is where social nationalism’s chance comes in. By 2022, the world will be very different. African millions will be heading to Europe, Middle East waves of migrants and/or refugees the same. The European Union may by then have collapsed, or collapsed in effect. There may be nuclear war in the Middle East.
In the socio-economic realm, we see that robotics and automation are taking away more jobs. In the future, even before 2030, that might include jobs formerly thought immune: doctors, lawyers etc. The voices asking for Basic Income might become a clamour.
In the above-mentioned conditions, a real social national movement could and, I believe, can triumph in Europe including the UK, more specifically in England. Identity. National/cultural family. Home. Homeland. Opposition both to Jewish Zionism and to Islamism (the socio-political expression of Islam). Grail Europe not Business Europe. Genetics and robotics in service of the people and its future.