I intend to write in detail about the upcoming Copeland by-election, once the main nominations are announced; this is meant to be a preliminary post containing a few thoughts around the contest.

The Copeland constituency has been in existence on its current boundaries since 1983. The previous constituency, Whitehaven (created during the electoral reform of 1832), was rock-solid Labour (often over 60%) from 1935 until the boundaries were changed in 1983

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitehaven_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

The Copeland constituency has continued Labour since its creation: the Labour vote reached its high-water mark in 1997, in the Tony Blair landslide. In that year, the Labour candidate achieved a vote of over 58%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s

and his successor, Jamie Reed, started off in 2005 with a Labour vote of 50.5%. However, the Labour vote share has steadily declined since then, most recently to 42% in 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

The Conservative vote has been more volatile, ranging in various elections from 29% to 43%. The Conservatives achieved nearly 36% in 2015, only one point down on their 2010 showing.

The UKIP vote in Copeland has mirrored in a modest way those in much of the country: 2.2% in 2005, 2.3% (beaten by the BNP on 3.4%) in 2010, jumping to 15.5% in 2015.

The Liberal Democrats have never done very well in Copeland, their vote share flickering around the 10% mark, not exceeding that in 2010 (one point down from their 2005 showing in fact), then crashing to 3.5% in the 2015 debacle.

In 2010, the Green Party stood for the first time since 1987 but received a vote of less than 1%. That improved to 3% in 2015. There has been debate in Green circles about whether they should withdraw, so as to give Labour their small vote share but (leaving aside the question of whether Green voters do actually favour Labour in lieu –some vote UKIP, according to polls–), the Liberal Democrats seem to be unwilling to withdraw, so it seems likely that the Greens will stand. Copeland contains the Sellafield (formerly Windscale) nuclear plant [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sellafield], which all Labour candidates and MPs to date have backed strongly (it is the biggest –and best-paying–employer by far in the constituency). Indeed, Jamie Reed stood down as MP in order to take up a lucrative (and secure) position at Sellafield.

Jamie Reed was one of the earliest rebels against Jeremy Corbyn, indeed the first to throw down the gauntlet after Corbyn became Labour leader. This is a “rat leaves sinking ship scenario” and very obviously so. Copeland voted Leave in the EU Referendum; Reed is strongly pro-EU. The constituency is also anti-immigration despite having relatively few immigrants and/or non-whites.

Choice of candidate will be key, especially for Labour. Word is that local Labour is not only pro-Sellafield, but anti-Corbyn. If their choice prevails, the candidate will be the same. That might (arguably) help Labour somewhat, but Labour’s generally pro-EU and also pro-mass-immigration stance will not.

Turnout will be very important too. Since the 1980s, turnout has gradually declined from over 83% at one time to not much beyond 60% in recent elections. By-elections usually have far lower turnouts than do general elections. That disadvantages Labour in this case.

Labour has lost the “incumbency factor”, Corbyn is little-regarded by the voting public, Labour is perceived to be pro-EU and pro-mass immigration, as well as disunited and (at least arguably) almost irrelevant. There is also the point that Labour’s Jamie Reed resigned for purely selfish motives (no future as a Labour MP, at least under Corbyn’s leadership; lucrative business career in prospect). These factors will not assist turnout and will not assist Labour.

Jamie Reed’s majority was 2,564 in 2015, 16,750 votes as against 14,186 for the Conservatives (UKIP got 6,148). The Conservatives are tipped by the bookmakers, for what that is worth. Certainly Conservative voters have all to play for here. On the other hand, Labour voters might well be very unenthusiastic. They may not switch votes, but will more likely vote with their feet by staying at home.

If Labour’s vote were to be reduced by about half and the Conservatives’ by about a third, that would leave Labour with (in rough figures) maybe 9,000 votes, the Conservatives with 9,500. This could run very close indeed.

The joker in the pack is, appropriately, UKIP. Even on basis of the above scenario and even if all 2015 UKIP voters vote UKIP this time, it still leaves UKIP with a steep climb. To win, UKIP is going to have to increase its 2015 vote by at least 50%, from 6,000 to (at least) 9,000. On the other hand, it is that kind of shock result that goes down in political history. These things happen. UKIP now has a Northerner as leader. That may help.

So far, UKIP since 2015 has fulfilled my predictions: stagnation (at best) rather than upsurge. Copeland might just provide a (one-off?) breakthrough for UKIP, but only if all the cards were to fall right: a good UKIP candidate, a poor Labour one, helpful headlines around polling day.

This by-election was always going to be close to call. In the absence of nominations, I am not yet ready to call it, but the result will be significant in its effects: the closest by-election since the 2015 General Election. If Labour loses, other Labour MPs may jump ship (the newspapers suggest at least 20). That would of course also be the case, a fortiori, were Labour to come third, which is in fact not impossible, though it would have been unthinkable until recently.

Start with the following proposition: the UK has no social nationalist party. All across Europe, social nationalism is rising and has political expression both in parties such as the Front National and in the political discourse generally. In the UK, the latter has started to occur, but not the former. Britain needs a social national party.

Traditionally, the UK has been resistant to social nationalism, the two bits having been severed: the “Conservatives” (mainly) took the national and “Labour” (mainly) took the social. The one waved the Union Jack, the other brandished a poll card in the left hand and a National Insurance card in the right.

After 1945, the Welfare State mainly initiated by Liberals (and even some Conservatives) was taken up and vastly expanded by the Labour Party. That Labour Party was socialist enough to keep its core vote happy most of the time, while never abandoning totally the patriotic background, at least as a theme.

The Thatcher era changed much and one of the things it changed beyond recognition was the Labour Party, which at first lurched toward an anti-national but more “socialist” model under Michael Foot, then a stagnant period under Neil Kinnock, before abandoning socialism altogether and “rebranding” (significant vocabulary) itself as the vaguely “social” and vaguely “national” New Labour. Under New Labour, you could be a Pakistani Muslim, a Jew Zionist, an EU economic migrant, whatever. You were part of the New Labour “British” club.

What New Labour forgot was most of the real British people, left behind in decaying end-of-pier seaside towns, in the post-industrial wastelands of the North (and Scotland) and in many another setting. They lost both their jobs (at least, the decently-paid ones) and their nation, submerged under the waves of mass immigration which were not only tolerated by the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown regime, but actively encouraged (specifically, to destroy the British and especially English national character and culture), though the full extent of the treason did not come to light for several years. Not only politicians were guilty, but also TV talking heads, Andrew Marr being one obvious example.

Scroll on a decade and 2017 is about to dawn. The BNP had two MEPs elected in 2009, then disappeared forever. UKIP rose on the back of social nationalist feeling, had a number of MEPs elected but failed, in 2015, to break through the moat of the First Past The Post electoral system at Westminster: 4 million votes (nearly 13% of the total) and only 1 MP (and that one a Conservative by any other name). No wonder so many people protest by simply not voting. As for UKIP, it has stagnated because it failed to follow the Front National of France into social nationalism. Instead, it espouses a mixed-message of silly “libertarianism” mixed with flag-waving and occasional lip-service in favour of the NHS and public transport. Result? Failure.

The situation now is that Britain has a notionally economically-conservative party which tries to make “national” noises (despite being in the pocket of Jewish-Zionist cosmopolitans) against a Labour Party which has split noisily between the Blair-Brown rump  (including most of its MPs) and a socialist but anti-nationalist membership insurgency led by “accidental” leader Jeremy Corbyn. Former Labour voters are voting with their feet (failing to vote at all) or voting for other parties. There is, also, the Liberal Democrat Party, but that was mortally wounded in 2015 and is now seen as merely a refuge for votes against other parties rather than as a “destination-vote” party voted for in its own right.

The conclusion I draw is that there is a political vacuum. There is a place for a social nationalist party. However, that party does not yet exist. In the next few years, conditions will be perfect for its launch.

I write only a few hours after the Richmond Park by-election result, which saw the Liberal Democrats win an unexpected victory over former Conservative Party MP (standing as Independent) Zac Goldsmith.

I had not taken much interest in the by-election, mainly because the constituency is atypical, full of the sort of affluent self-described liberals who usually vote soft Conservative or Liberal Democrat and who believe in the EU, multicultural/multiracial Britain, “refugees welcome” (though not in Richmond, of course) and whatever helps to support their own comfortable lifestyles.

The result:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

What struck me first of all was the poor showing of Labour, which lost its deposit for the first time since the constituency was created in 1997. Labour achieved a 12% vote in 2015 and managed 5% even in the 2010 General Election which Labour lost. Labour’s 3.7% vote in the by-election was only 9 times that achieved by the Monster Raving Loony.

UKIP did not stand, which perhaps says something in itself. UKIP had climbed from a vote of 0.7% in 2001 to 4.2% in the 2015 General Election.

Zac Goldsmith had increased the Conservative Party vote from around 39% under previous candidates to 50% in 2010 and 58% in 2015. However, his anti-Heathrow-expansion stance was irrelevant in the by-election, because the decision to expand the airport has now been taken. Another factor was the EU: Goldsmith’s pro-Brexit view was at odds with that of most Richmond voters in the most pro-EU constituency in England.

There were minor candidates: Fiona Syms, estranged or ex-wife of the Conservative MP for Poole. She received 173 votes (fewer than the Monster Raving Loony); a sullen Indo-Pak calling himself “Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir” (real name Ankit Love), representing his “One Love” crank party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Love_Party] (which consists, it seems, of 3 or 4 people). The “maharajah” received 67 votes; there were a couple of other candidates.

What can perhaps be said about this by-election? What does it indicate? That Labour is still sliding and that UKIP has (at best) stalled.

What cannot be said about the Richmond Park result? That voters outside Richmond Park (or the few places like it) are anti-Brexit; that the Liberal Democrats are resurgent. In the end, the only practical result of the by-election is that it reduces by 1 the number of Conservative MPs (and so by 2, in effect, the already-small Commons majority of the Theresa May government).