[Hitler enters Vienna in 1938, after the Anschluss, and to general acclamation]
Tweets seen
"Terms like 'far-right' are now being stretched by liberal progressives to try and silence, stigmatise and shut down voters who question the established consensus among elites. Many voters can now see this"https://t.co/dmSQkhk9mG
By my use of Electoral Calculus, that might translate to Lab 476 Commons seats (overall majority 302), Con 68 (official Opposition), LibDems 62, SNP 13, Reform UK 4, Plaid Cymru 4, Greens 2 (Northern Ireland 18, Others 3).
What kind of “democracy” is it, though, when a party (Labour) might get 39% of the popular vote, yet get about 72% of the seats in the House of Commons (476 seats)? A strict 39% of seats would be 253 seats.
Another party (Conservatives) might get 19% of the popular vote, meaning, on strict mathematical equivalence, about 124 seats, not the mere 68 conferred by FPTP voting.
As for Reform UK, its present or forecast 17% should confer (under proportional voting) about 111 seats. The forecast under FPTP voting— a mere 4.
There again, the LibDems, with only 10% of the popular vote, are forecast to have 62 seats, almost the same as under a strict proportional allocation (65).
Can such an electoral system even be called “democratic”? Open question.
The DDR was a strange little country, in which I spent a couple of days in 1988; actually, not quite as small a country as commonly imagined: about 42,000 sq. miles, as against England’s 51,000, but with an overall density of population about a third of England’s (the UK as a whole has about 94,000 sq. miles).
Thérèse Coffey's constituency is on a knife edge. Lib Dems, lend your votes to Labour and a grateful nation will thank you. This needs to be reciprocated by Labour up and down the country. This is a generational opportunity to crush the Tories once and for all.#politicslivepic.twitter.com/yuNfo47v8l
— paulusthewoodgnome 🇺🇦💙 (@woodgnomology) June 12, 2024
Interesting both in itself and re. the tactical voting point.
“Two men have been jailed for a total of 67 years for shooting and stabbing to death an 18-year-old in east London.
Awadh Saleh and Rio Burton-Devine, both aged 25 from east London, were found guilty of the murder of Abubakar ‘Junior’ Jah, 18, at the Old Bailey today.
Judge Mark Dennis KC sentenced the pair to 36 years and 31 years respectively for the ‘brutal and cowardly’ attack in 2021.”
[defendant]
What will London be like in 2034 or 2044?
The System parties have no real answers.
Late tweets
This seems like a bit of a tipping point / watershed moment. My gut tells me that a decent proportion of Tory voters were waiting on this moment – using it as a test to see if Reform really could be considered a legitimate political force.
By my use of Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html], that actually puts the Cons in a marginally better position than other recent polls, by reason of the slip in Labour’s position, but it still means Lab 466 (overall majority 282), Con 70, LibDem 70, Reform UK 4, Greens 2.
Were Labour to recover to 40%, the number of Con MPs would reduce to 51; were Labour to rise to 41%, the number of Con MPs would be a mere 42.
https://t.co/ImFdML1ebM Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken Conservatives in a poll for 1st time. Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov.The findings will come as a blow to Rishi Sunak after a disastrous election campaign & risks triggering panic
— ML ie @randlight which has been deactivated why ? (@LightfootMarg) June 13, 2024
ITV Debate tonight – When questioned by Reform UK's Nigel Farage on why should the public trust the Conservatives on immigration, Tory Penny Mordaunt calls on the recent Prime minister's record to defend her – the Tories are a joke!#itvdebate#VoteReform#NigelFaragepic.twitter.com/DdEiD5IEPk
Penny Mordaunt is campaigning not so much for the Conservative Party as for her own political career (in fact, her career full stop, for she has no other). It seems 50-50, at best, that she will be re-elected anyway.
Labour is as dull as ditchwater, as witness its pathetic Manifesto for the General Election, but I do not think that it much matters now. The main aim of 80%+, maybe even 90%, of the electorate is to get rid of the Conservative Party not just for the next 5 years but permanently. Starmer and fake Labour will only fail to sweep all before them —by default— if something so devastating happens to their campaign that it is hard to imagine what.
Late music
[a rainy night in Tunis; I last trod that pavement in 1986]
On this day in 1938, Austria became part of the German Reich, the forces of the Wehrmacht having crossed the border unopposed on the previous day, welcomed enthusiastically by crowds of Austrian people passed en route:
“On the morning of 12 March 1938, the 8th Army of the German Wehrmacht crossed the border into Austria. The troops were greeted by cheering Austrians with Nazi salutes, Nazi flags, and flowers.[57]
For the Wehrmacht, the invasion was the first big test of its machinery. Although the invading forces were badly organized and coordination among the units was poor, it mattered little because the Austrian government had ordered the Austrian Bundesheer not to resist.[58]
That afternoon, Hitler, riding in a car, crossed the border at his birthplace, Braunau am Inn, with a 4,000 man bodyguard.[53] In the evening, he arrived at Linz and was given an enthusiastic welcome.
The enthusiasm displayed toward Hitler and the Germans surprised both Nazis and non-Nazis, as most people had believed that a majority of Austrians opposed Anschluss.[59][60]
Many Germans from both Austria and Germany welcomed the Anschluss as they saw it as completing the complex and long overdue unification of all Germans into one state.”
[Wikipedia]
“Most people...” in the UK etc were no doubt being informed, or misinformed, by newspapers owned by or influenced by “the usual suspects” (the “you-know-who”…). The enthusiasm of Austrians for Anschluss was therefore a shock to them.
Their crowdfunder [https://www.givesendgo.com/sammelia] has now reached £60,532. The minimum level of donation is a mere £4. Help these people and their cause.
[Laura Towler and her husband, Sam Melia, with one of their small children, another being expected to be born very soon]
I myself do not, at least as yet, have any crowdfunder, but am due to be sentenced this week (for allegedly having written unwelcome truths on this blog).
Tweets seen
Russia responded to unprecedented Western sanctions with an “indecent gesture” – CBC
In early February, Vladimir Putin joked that he wanted to show a “well-known gesture” to the sanctions-imposing West, but would not do so because there were “many girls in the room.” Instead,… pic.twitter.com/MGWnMR0UKX
“Russia responded to unprecedented Western sanctions with an “indecent gesture” – CBC.
In early February, Vladimir Putin joked that he wanted to show a “well-known gesture” to the sanctions-imposing West, but would not do so because there were “many girls in the room.”
Instead, the Russian president boasted about the country’s economy and its ability to expand its military-industrial complex in the face of unprecedented sanctions, writes CBC journalist Briar Stewart.
Indeed, over the past two years, the Russian government has managed to circumvent sanctions and limit inflation while investing nearly a third of its budget in defense spending. He also managed to increase trade with China and sell his oil to new markets, in part by using a shadow fleet of tankers to get around a price cap that Western countries hoped would reduce the country’s military budget.
In 2022, Western countries froze Russia’s sovereign assets worth $300 billion. Then more than 16 thousand sanctions were introduced. European airspace was closed to Russian aircraft, and hundreds of Western companies left Russia or curtailed their activities.
But today there are the latest iPhones and MacBooks on Russian shelves because government and business have largely been able to adapt. Russia has relied on Asia, and especially China, as its main economic lifeline. Russia’s ability to produce weapons and use its oil money to finance them is a pressing issue for Ukraine, which is struggling with arms and ammunition shortages, and for its allies.
“However, there are no simple steps left to tighten the sanctions regime. It’s a game of cat and mouse. Any delays in making decisions on additional sanctions give Russia the opportunity to adjust its policies and its economy,” the article says.”
The British Tories are now falling to lows in the polls we've not seen since the final days of the Liz Truss premiership. The party is in a death-spiralhttps://t.co/UkQl6UYyjf
The “Conservatives” have given up trying to win, or even not badly lose, the 2024 General Election. They are now focussed on giving whatever they can while they can, not to their “core voters” but to the very core of that core, the wealthiest 1% or 2%.
67% of Britons think it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes during their attack on Gaza
Quote of the Day: "What disability group can you serve in the army?"
With anyone. If a person can tie a grenade to himself and jump into a dugout, that means he is fit,” – Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatoly Bargilevich pic.twitter.com/lWx7jCxeWY
Ukraine has never been famous for great minds, but that quoted remark must take the biscuit for recent comments by members of the Kiev regime. That man is the Chief of their General Staff!
I’m not that easily cancelled! The MSM can try, but they haven’t realised yet it’s them that are finished. I'm now FINALLY free to speak the truth without fear of the Ofcommunist censors. This is why I HAD to leave GB News and go independent. My story…https://t.co/Puyv9xE64hpic.twitter.com/zMVEukUoaX
The hate monster? Seriously? Are we, and police Scotland, being run by a fucking primary one class? Or are they just allowing the lowest IQ idiots to dictate to them? Frankly, it doesn’t even matter. It’s offensive to any half intelligent adult. pic.twitter.com/tXNjBzpoiD
That is the level on which much of the police force seems to be, now. Incapable of doing their proper and authorized job(s), and wasting enormous time and money behaving like a poundland KGB or Stasi, spying on tweets and blogs, and “monitoring” what the British people say about the migration invasion, about corrupt and/or useless MPs, and about those “special interest groups” and cabals which hide in the shadows, controlling or influencing events to our detriment.
US Columbia University Vice President Gerald Rosberg could not directly answer “yes” or “no” to the question of whether Palestinians are human. pic.twitter.com/ECNKSe8ZyT
"I think it's time for politicians in Washington to face reality. Chuck Schumer came out of a meeting at the White House and said, 'It's simple, $60 billion and Ukraine will win. If you don't give them $60 billion, they'll lose.'" How they plan We're now in… pic.twitter.com/GRRXLk66fz
“Senator Ron Johnson: “I think it’s time for politicians in Washington to face reality.
Chuck Schumer came out of a meeting at the White House and said, ‘It’s simple, $60 billion and Ukraine will win. If you don’t give them $60 billion, they’ll lose.'”
How they plan. We’re now in a two-year bloody stalemate, and I think you really need to start asking yourself, is it worth spending another $60 billion to fan the flames of the bloody stalemate? Because every day more and more Ukrainians die, more and more Russian conscripts, more and more Ukraine is destroyed. If you care about the Ukrainian people, you should worry about this too.
We don’t have a winning strategy. The administration does not lay it out. If we are going to support Ukraine, it must be done in a way that forces Putin to come to the negotiating table and end this war. I don’t hear it at all. I hear that President Biden hasn’t even talked to Russia on this issue. And I would be very interested to know what happened in Istanbul shortly after the war began, when Boris Johnson, essentially halfway through the Biden administration, torpedoed the peace agreement.
So we really need to do a complete re-evaluation of this issue. And we should secure our own border before sending $60 billion down the rat hole to secure other countries.”
Quite. In fact, you could give the Zelensky regime USD $60BN or $600BN, and it would make no difference. “Ukraine” (Kiev regime) cannot “win”, even to the extent of “taking back” Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk, let alone anything more ambitious.
The present Ukraine is a failed state, and in fact a fake state.
🇵🇸 This is what Khan Younis, a city in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, looks like today pic.twitter.com/JV180rNlSX
Russian troops advance even though Zelensky says Moscow's forces are 'stopped' – Newsweek
“Russia’s offensive has been stopped,” Zelensky told French broadcaster BFM TV on Monday. “Our command, our military stopped Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine.” But Western analysts say… pic.twitter.com/uqhklu4ESR
“Russian troops advance even though Zelensky says Moscow’s forces are ‘stopped’ – Newsweek.
“Russia’s offensive has been stopped,” Zelensky told French broadcaster BFM TV on Monday. “Our command, our military stopped Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine.”
But Western analysts say Russian troops continue to advance in the Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Kharkov and Luhansk regions. “Russian troops recently achieved confirmed successes in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdeevka and Donetsk amid ongoing positional battles along the entire line of contact on March 12,” Newsweek quotes analysts.
In the Kupyansky direction there is progress in the area of the village of Sinkovka. In the south, Russian troops are regaining positions lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Fierce fighting broke out around such settlements as Robotino, Urozhainoye and Staromayorskoye.
To repel the Russian onslaught, Kyiv has mobilized some of its best units, equipped with American-made armored vehicles and tanks, Newsweek notes.“
“I don’t want to cross this line”: Scholz again stated that he is against the supply of Taurus missiles to Kyiv
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Wednesday that supplying Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles would be “irresponsible,” Politico reported.
Ian Robert Millard 