The by-elections in Stoke Central and Copeland have been held. The public relations people for Labour (UKIP seems to have no public relations section) are still trying to spin positives out of the Stoke result and even the Copeland defeat. The time has come to look to the future based on what can be taken from these by-elections.
The Result in Stoke Central
The Result in Copeland
I blogged before the poll that, if UKIP failed to win Stoke Central, that that would surely be the end or at least beginning of the end for it as a serious contender. I have also blogged and tweeted for 18 months my view that UKIP peaked in 2014. I have no reason to change those views now.
As a candidate, Paul Nuttall was fairly poor, not resilient, not intelligent, not really passionate enough politically. The UKIP organization or administration of the campaign also seemed poor. Overall, as in the past, UKIP seemed to be afraid to really set the campaign alight. The law being what it now is, UKIP could hardly have copied the successful 1960s Smethwick Conservative by-election candidate whose posters said “if you want a n****r for a neighbour, vote Labour”, but UKIP seemed to want to bypass the race/culture question entirely. There was no bite to the UKIP campaign.
The Labour candidate at Stoke Central, Gareth Snell, might fairly be described as “a poorly-educated and spotty Twitter troll, living mainly if not entirely off his allowances and expenses as a local council leader, who seems never to have had a non-political job (except a trade union one of some kind)”. In some respects he was a worse candidate than Paul Nuttall.
One has to bear in mind the heavily-industrial, heavily-Labour-voting history of Stoke-on-Trent. Labour has always had a built-in advantage there. The Conservative candidate, Jack Brereton, though looking like a schoolboy, did well to come a close third to Labour and UKIP, though in fact the Conservative vote increased by only a modest 1.8 points over the 2015 result.
Apathy or hostile apathy was the real winner in Stoke Central. 62% of the electorate did not vote. No party energized them to come out to vote for it.
As to Copeland, the main point that leaps out, apart from the obvious Labour car crash, is the poor performance of UKIP.
UKIP surely must be finished now. It started in 1993 and in the nearly 24 years since then has failed to win a single Westminster seat, save for that of former Conservative MP Douglas Carswell, who is really just a Brexit Conservative and “free market” globalist.
UKIP would have been in a far better position had it won even a couple of seats at the 2015 General Election, but, in the irritating phrase, “we are where we are”. Theresa May’s Brexit policy has “shot UKIP’s fox” on the EU.
That leaves immigration, race and culture. UKIP now seems to have many spokesmen who are not of European race, so UKIP is not even offering the UK a white persona, a white country, if you like.
The conclusion is clear: UKIP is pointless, hopeless and must go.
Labour has been declining for years. Corbyn is both symptom and cause. The disappearance of the industrial proletariat has swept away the bedrock underneath Labour, replacing it by the sand of the “precariat”. Labour imported millions of immigrants, who are now breeding. The social landscape becomes volatile. The political landscape too.
The elimination of “socialism” from Labour led to focus-group rudderlessness, surely personified by Tony Blair, who has no principles, no real ideology, just careerism, self-seeking and politically-correct non-thinking. Labour became a party made in Blair’s image. It has no real ideology any more, not even social-democracy.
By 2020, the House of Commons will consist of 600 MPs, reduced from the current 650. Labour is currently at about 25% in the opinion polls and it is likely that, in 2020, Labour will have between 100 and 200 MPs in the House. Labour cannot now form even a coalition or minority government. It will slowly crumble.
The Future Beyond 2020
A new social nationalist party must be formed. It must be ideologically clear, administratively disciplined, capable of gaining trust and credibility. When a crisis comes, that small party may be able to seize control, as has happened before in history.
Update, 23 April 2019
I am updating because there has been much water under the bridge in the past 2 years and 2 months. Labour did fail to become the largest party in the Commons at the 2017 General Election, held a few months after the above was written. However, the Conservatives lost ground. Labour has trailed in the opinion polls since I wrote the above blog post, but just recently has managed to come back, not really on its own merit but because the Conservatives under Theresa May have had a complete car crash in several respects, especially Brexit. Labour has been sitting on the fence, not exactly a “cunning plan” but effective enough…
Update, 20 November 2020
The world turns…the 2019 General Election finished off the “15 minutes of fame” political career of Gareth Snell. He lost out to the Conservative Party candidate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Snell; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s.
As for the planned reduction of MP numbers to 600 (from 650), that will not now occur.
Update, 6 December 2020
I just noticed that my prediction of Labour MP-strength in the House of Commons (100-200 by 2020) was right: the Labour Party now has 200 MPs (201, if presently-suspended Jeremy Corbyn is included).
At date of writing, and despite the appalling incompetence of the Boris Johnson government, Labour under Jewish lobby puppet Keir Starmer is still trailing a few points behind the Conservative Party.
10 thoughts on “Stoke Central and Copeland: the aftermath for Labour and UKIP”
Good for thought. UKIP will remain effective just as long as the Establishment have a use for it, I suspect, thus it is unlikely to fold just like that.
Labour will remain the main opposition because the Establishment likes Corbyn. Do not think the Establishment has any further use for Blair, since he has already done all the damage he could possibly achieve and been well rewarded for it. Think he is just being used to scare Corbyn.
The Conservatives are the main question. Their new Copeland MP is a local Cumbrian lass who looks and sounds as inept and useless as May. In fact May is becoming an issue because she is quite as incompetent as BoJo in foreign affairs.
Neither May nor BoJo have any moral fibre, neither have any loyalty to Britain and they neither honour not respect the people they are appointed to serve!
So the question is: just how long can incompetent dithering May get away with being the nation’s leader? She looks like she is on the point of having a heart attack, or failing that a nervous breakdown. And it is becoming clear that Brexit is not going to happen, except in name perhaps, as Britain is a main contributor to the European army and our nuclear deterrent will soon be put under French control.
So what about this new Social National Party? Will it ever happen?
I agree about the essential uselessness and shallowness of Boris Johnson. A part-Jew scribbler and self-seeker who has surely gone as high as he can go (higher than he can go credibly, in fact).
UKIP is toast but it suits the System to have “controlled opposition” playing blazered bogeyman to the sort of fools who believe that Corbyn is a major political thinker.
Labour has a long history and will not disappear overnight. In the North especially and places like Stoke Central, support for Labour is instilled along with that for the local football team and mother’s milk. Labour is sliding though and one day will be gone or as good as gone.
UK missiles (few though they are, I think) wkill not be put under French control.
By the time Brexit might happen in some form, around or after 2020, the EU may well have collapsed anyway. I think that it will.
Conservative Party is dying too, but it rides high by default, because of the faster expiry of Labour and UKIP. Most Conservative Party members now are over 80, I believe.
As to Theresa May, she is of course part-Jew and you may know that she has Type 1 diabetes (more common in certain non-European peoples). She has a brittle mentality and I see no sign in her that she would be any use in a real crisis.
I myself, having seen small parties of all types flounder since the mid-1970s, would not found one now unless it could be a serious organization in every way, right from the start. However, there will never be such a good time for a UK (mainly England) social nationalist movement to flourish and grow as between now and 2022. The country needs a new party like that and will need it more in the medium future.
Is Teresa Maybe of partly Jewish ancestry? I have not seen conclusive proof of this on the web. Speaking personally, I must admit I’ve always had my suspicions about her in this regard for a long period of time now. After all, she doesn’t look particularly English.
I believe that she is half-Jewish. Her father was a Church of England vicar (though that is not conclusive either way), but her mother had an odd name, Saida, possibly North African. Of course at one time there were Jewish populations there. Also, Teresa May has Type 1 diabetes, common among Jews. Her policy toward Israel and the UK Jewish/Zionist lobby is one of craven support and compliance.
I agree wholeheartedly with you on the subject of that local Cumbrian lass being elected as the new Tory MP for Copeland. I was watching the coverage of the by-elections on the BBC and that woman was pitiful. Talk about a total Tory airhead. The CONservatives are almost as bereft of real political talent as the Labour Party and Lib Dems are.
I have found this: http://semiticcontroversies.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07-is-theresa-may-jewish.html
If she isn’t in any way Jewish, then her complete subservience towards the Jewish/Zionist Lobby makes her a very big shabbos goy and this also makes it even more shameless. Either way, that compliance and complete non-dissent towards them makes her unfit to be Britain’s PM.
She may, of course, have tried to hide behind an English-sounding name to hide her real origins. Many Jews have historically done this. Trevor Howard (the famous British film star) was a Jew along with Michael Howard (Hecht).
If you were sitting on a filthy great big obsolete battleship steaming across the ocean watching silly windbag biplanes frishing about in the sky, would you bother?
The obsolete battleship which is passing (and might possibly even have passed already) in to obsolescence is the Labour Party.
It is flanked by Rothschild’s pet Conservative obsolescent battleship, the Liberal Democrats obsolescent battleship, the Greens obsolescent battleship.
In fact all Rothschild’s favoured obsolete contraptions from the Bank of England fiat money battleship, his IMF bank obsolete battleship and all the other obsolescent constructions so favoured by Rothschild and all his shills and lick spittles.
‘So what if those windbag biplanes can carry a torpeedo that can blow us out of the water! We’ll blow them out of the sky with our big guns! No problem!’
Later…gulg glug glug…obsolescent battleships sinking all around. Rothschild and a few of his shills and lick spittles clinging to a Carey raft…’Good Lucifer, those cursed Nationalist pilots really are good!’
Rothschild turns to his son. ‘Well we and Lucifer had a good run didn’t we? Should have read a bit more Neitche maybe. Still being eaten half alive by sharks is probably better than being strung up by Nationalists!’
So the spiral cities around Chalyabinsk designed like arms of a swastika swirling around the centre of the town of 700 or 800 people…the bigger conurbations being 1700 to 1800 people in even larger swirling swastikas…around the central core of the city state, is where you developed your idea of Aryan people retreating to in the West Country?
‘Oh this is George, he lives on the north arm of our swastika. And this is Sandra, she lives on the west arm near Henry!’
Swastika swirls actually make a lot of sense because your town then has a centre surrounded by four roads spiralling outward in a well organised format, permitting fields to be farmed in between, by just about everyone.
700 or 800 people would be known personally by everyone. 1700 to 1800 people would mean you knew everyone by sight and most by name. I’ve lived in places with 1500 people and although you don’t know everyone you know most by sight. But if you were born there…
A thousand Aryans living on sun wheel swirls on the plains, hills and fertile little valleys. Moving west with their horses and cattle, with pigs and geese, blue and green eyed children playing together. Maybe a few red haired people too.
The swastika being the natural symbol of us Aryans after all…bronze metal workers, chariot builders, horse breeders. The chosen people will just have to like it or lump it me thinks!
Imagine our towns built like swastika symbols across the landscape! Maybe there’s more to the sun wheel than meets the eye. Perhaps it is the essence of being after all. Think I better go to Chelyabinsk and have a look.
Your comment interests, but seems to have little to do with the recent by-elections! Never mind, this is a (reasonable) free speech zone…