UKIP, Farage, Brexit and British Politics

Foreword

I have interrupted the drafting of a far more significant blog post to comment on matters arising from and matters around the resignation of Nigel Farage from UKIP, announced today.

Nigel Farage and UKIP

It is perhaps the conventional wisdom to regard Nigel Farage as a hugely–skilled politician who made UKIP into a major force in British politics. My own view is rather different.

I see Farage as an articulate, fairly intelligent fellow, not very ideological beyond an ingrained free-marketism. Certainly not a great or even wide-ranging thinker. Farage was leader of UKIP (founded 1993) from 1997 to 2016. On the one hand, Farage mobilized and organized UKIP sufficiently to gain, at peak, 24 MEPs and 2 Conservative MP defectors. On the other hand, in 25 years of operation and 19 years under Farage, UKIP never came close to having a new UKIP MP elected anywhere (mainly the fault of the British FPTP electoral system, so be it).

UKIP (as I tweeted and blogged for years) peaked in 2014. Since then it has been on the downward slope. Farage saw that and jumped ship, first giving up the leadership, then getting new and presumably lucrative work as radio talk host on LBC and as a general talking head.

Now Farage has resigned from UKIP because he says that it is becoming a single-issue party obsessed by Islam or Islamism. He also thinks that the new UKIP leader is obsessed with the idea of linking up with “Tommy Robinson” and his large band of followers. Farage’s view is mired in irony though: if there has ever been a one-issue party (or maybe two connected issues) it is UKIP, with its emphases on exit from the EU and mass immigration.

Farage’s own view seems to be that he prefers immigration (so long as notionally “high-skilled”) from India than from EU states. Despite the influx to the UK of low-wage Lithuanians and others, and also Roma Gypsy thieves and freeloaders, that is just mad, or at best very wrongheaded. After all, “race is the root, culture is the flower”.

UKIP’s Electoral Chances

As I have blogged several times, I assess UKIP’s electoral chances as close to zero. At electoral peak in 2014, UKIP might have had several MPs elected, had there been a General Election that year. As it was, the 2015 General Election saw UKIP miss the bus. Its (in round figures) nearly 4M votes (12.6% of the overall vote) were insufficient to win any individual seat, because spread evenly among English and Welsh constituencies.

Any linkage with Tommy Robinson might revivify UKIP to some extent, but in my view not enough to do well electorally. Most of Robinson’s supporters vote UKIP anyway, in all likelihood.

Down The Line

It is possible that, if Brexit either does not happen or happens in a patently false way, then UKIP might do better, but it is not the party for any radical or revolutionary new start for the UK. “Robinson’s” noisy beerswillers will contribute little to UKIP, which I think will still pretty much disappear by 2022 at latest.

Further thoughts, 8 December 2018

UKIP was a major reason why the BNP (which until 2010 often did better than UKIP in elections) failed to take off in the 2005-2010 period. The BNP, though somewhat crude, was a genuine social-national party, not (as was or is UKIP) a partly-fake conservative-nationalist party. The attitude of, eg, the BBC, made that clear. UKIP members were and still are welcome on the Daily Politics show (or whatever it is now called), Question Time etc. The BNP was only allowed on to be trashed or when law and regulation prescribed, mainly during election run-up times.

There were positive aspects to UKIP when it was a live party:

  • UKIP raised the profile of nationalism in the UK;
  • UKIP raised the subject of mass immigration into the UK and the EU, and because UKIP had a platform on msm TV, radio and Press, was able to awake some slumbering people to it and the consequential dangers of it;
  • UKIP may have been the catalyst for the EU Referendum. Even if Brexit is defeated or denied (overtly or not) the national debate has once more awakened many not only to the EU’s faults, but to migration-invasion etc.

Notes

  1. UKIP membership, at one time around 40,000, now stands officially at 23,000 and is believed to be in very steep decline.
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage

11 thoughts on “UKIP, Farage, Brexit and British Politics”

    1. You may be right but I think it more likely at present that the DUP will withdraw support for the Government, thus making it impossible for the Theresa May “shitshow” (in the immortal description of Johnny Mercer MP) to pass any legislation at all, not just this doomed rubbish Brexit “deal”.

      It is not impossible that either there will be a no-confidence vote in the next 7 days or that a few more Conservative MPs will find a backbone and depose Theresa May (what is stopping them to date seems to be that there is no obvious successor in view). There might be a General Election 2019, maybe in March, just in time for Brexit…

      If article 50 is revoked, any confidence the British people (or at least the 60%+ of white English who voted Leave) had in “democracy” in the UK will evaporate. Only today, a survey said that a mere 20% of British people think that the present Parliamentary system etc is “working” for them.

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      1. How would you rate the chances of a second referendum being pursued by the globalists in the Commons and if this happens what question would be on the ballot paper? I tend to think the chances are still fairly low because having another referendum could well appear to too many voters as an all too obvious way of overturning the initial result and something that the political Establishment had planned from the 24th June 2016. They might also be taking a big risk
        putting a no deal option as a choice for the electorate to take. On the other hand a second referendum framed correctly with the media running a ‘Project Fear 2” might prove to be a calculated risk worth taking as a vote to remain could be presented as the public being ultimately responsible for Brexit being cancelled and it not being the result of the Establishment doing it.

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      2. We are in uncharted waters. The “Project Fear” has gained some traction (not least because this government has brought incompetence and lack of planning to a new and in fact unprecedented level). In these circumstances, Remain might well get a 50%-60% vote at any second referendum, but the other 40%-50% of British people (mostly white –or real– English and meaning in other words over half of the white English population) will feel cheated, and rightly so. The same would be true were Article 50 to be revoked. There might be a *real” political backlash which might take a very angry and directly confrontational form.

        There is also the time factor, with only 3 months to go before execution of the Article 50 decision/application. The EU seems willing to delay but maybe not. In any case, I doubt that “no deal” will be on any 2nd Referendum paper!

        It seems to me that, if the Government loses the vote on the “deal”, then Theresa May might be willing to ask the EU for more time and ask to renegotiate, but that just kicks everything down the road, because the EU will not concede much more. Theresa May is as weak as weak can be.

        If, as seems likely, the vote upcoming is badly lost, then I wonder whether it could be said that Theresa May has “lost the confidence of the House” [Bagehot] and then would be surely advised to resign.

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      3. Due to the terms of the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 it is possible for the government to lose yet not be forced into having a general election as there is a 14 day period where it may be possible for an alternative government to be formed under a new PM. Perhaps we could see a Tory/DUP formal coalition?

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      4. I see no possibility of a formal Con/DUP coalition, not when the status of N. Ireland is in flux. I think that a more likely result would be a Conservative Party revolt against Theresa May and the installation of someone else. Maybe Hunt? Surely not Clown Prince Boris. That would be disastrous. However, the Brexit process would be grinding inexorably on. A new Con leader might just revoke the Article 50 decision at the last minute. It might seem to be the only logical step. The down the line political consequences would be huge, though.

        I see the next government after any election as (probably) minority Labour.

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    2. Re the Thanet newspaper report, I wonder whether that haunted-looking “antifascist” woman “activist” made the whole thing up, or whether someone did put a sticker near her Labour Party poster and she made a mountain out of a molehill, like Jews who pester the police to log incidents such as children drawing chalk Swastikas on the pavement (or even on misted-up train windows!) as “hate crime incidents” etc? The latter, probably.

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      1. You may be right and it has presumably raised her profile among the residents of Thanet – as a parliamentary prospective candidate!

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  1. Yes, having Boris as PM would be disastrous for this country despite him being a Brexiteer albeit a VERY LATE convert to the cause. Also he is on record as saying that illegal migrants should be rewarded for their criminal behaviour by being allowed to stay! We would become an even bigger laughing stock in the world than with Teresa Mayhem! Jeremy Hunt was a remainer during the referendum though now says he supports leaving. Whether his conversion is genuine or not must be a matter for debate but at least he does come across as prime ministerial unlike Boris. I have a fear the Tories will, once again, go for the Guardianista PC globalist vote by installing their pet ethnic Sajid Javid as PM should toxic Teresa be ousted. It is a shame Jacob Rees-Mogg has no desire to put himself forward!

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    1. If reports are accurate, Boris Idiot would only be supported by about 30 Con MPs in any leadership contest. One has to realize that MPs know Boris. His laziness. His self-publicizing. His lack of integrity. His lack of real weight intellectually. His cupidity. To be put before Con rank and file members, Boris has to be one of two contenders at top of MPs’ poll and that seems very unlikely. He’s trying, though, as witness his Marr Show appearance today, slightly slimmed down, dark suit, haircut…his new girlfriend must have taken a hand.

      Not so sure about Rees-Mogg. There is more steel in him than at first appears, but he falls uneasily between stools, neither a true aristocrat/near-aristocrat, nor a democrat with the common touch. As you say, though, he may not wish to fight anyway, but that may be because he knows he cannot win. There again, he operates a large City of London wealth fund. As PM, he would have to transfer all that to a blind trust and give up managing it. I consider that an unlikely prospect.

      Sajid Javid has poor judgment (as witness his support for the antifa thugs and would-be thugs and doormats for Zionism). He would be disastrous as PM and, of course, is racially and, to some extent, culturally alien, for all his trumpeting of “Britishness”.

      This all plays well for Labour and Corbyn, albeit that he is weakened by the Diane Abbott/Dawn BUtler/Kate Osamor (etc) factor.

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