EU Elections 2019 in Review: Brexit Party

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So we come finally to the summit: laurels and oak leaves to the victor. Brexit Party rode its tank over the prostrate bodies of the other parties.

In the EU Elections 2019, Brexit Party was in 1st place, received 5,248,533 votes, a vote-share of 30.7%, resulting in 29 new MEPs. A party which scarcely existed a month or so before the poll.

The Brexit Party vote numbered over one and a half times the vote of the second-placed party, the LibDems, far more than double that of the Labour Party (which was 3rd), about 3x the vote of the Greens, and between 3x and 4x the vote of the Conservatives. As for UKIP and Change UK, which scraped in together in 6th/7th place (excluding SNP, Plaid Cymru and Northern Irish parties), the Brexit Party vote was 10x higher than that of either of them.

Brexit Party was 1st in 9 of the 11 (ex-Northern Ireland) EU constituencies. In Scotland and London it came in 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Brexit Party emerged, apparently from nowhere (perhaps not entirely so, though) and was soon holding rallies where thousands of people turned up to hear Nigel Farage (mainly). They even paid to hear him.

Here is Farage talking in Peterborough, where the vital by-election will be held this Thursday 6 June 2019:

I find it amusing that the Peterborough by-election will be held on 6 June 2019, 75 years to the day after the Normandy Landings of 1944. I have not seen Brexit Party making much of that, but it may have at least a limited effect.

Brexit Party has somehow managed to run an incredibly professional campaign including social media campaign, as with this ad for the EU Elections:

There is no doubt about it, though: Brexit Party must win the Peterborough by-election to keep its momentum going. So far, its campaign has gone well, resulting in Brexit Party, which started as 5/4 second favourite (after Labour), now quoted by bookmakers and on the betting exchanges as not only favourite but very heavily odds-on, (this morning at 1/5, but now, as I write, already yet firmer at 1/6!). https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics for updates.

I am updating my own [first written 9 May 2019] look at the by-election on a daily basis:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/notes-from-the-peterborough-by-election/

So what is the future for Brexit Party and what is its effect on other parties?

Well, as I write, an opinion poll has Brexit Party as the most popular party for voters intending to vote in the next UK general election:

According to Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html ] , the approximate result of that, if applied in the real next general election, would be Brexit Party 322 seatsLabour 129 seats, Conservatives 93 seatsLibDems 26 seats (I have assessed the main Scottish votes as SNP 40%, Con 20%, Lab and LibDem 15% each).

In the above scenario, Brexit Party would be only 4 seats short of a Commons majority.

Another poll  (they are both very recent) comes to slightly different results in the poll but hugely different results in the Commons! Indicative of the volatility creeping or seeping into UK politics.

On the immediately-above scenario, Brexit Party would still be largest party in the Commons (Brexit Party 219 seats, Lab 177, Con 156, LibDems 47) but would be 107 seats short of a majority.

Many may say that all either of the above polls would mean in practice (apart from Nigel Farage as Prime Minister!) would be a quasi-Conservative (real Conservative) minority or coalition government and no big change politically in the end. I disagree. The Conservative Party has nearly 200 years of history (some would say more, including its informal origins long before the 1830s). Brexit Party has no history, no traditions, no roots. A shallow plant. Labour too has long tradition and history.

Once those corrupted old parties are mainly uprooted, once people see that there is a world beyond utterly corrupt LibLabCon and its mirages, the way becomes a lot easier for near-future social nationalism and for pan-European real co-operation of free nations for a new world and a new Europe. For race and culture!

Notes, musings and updates

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/12/what-is-brexit-party-why-does-it-exist-what-are-its-chances/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/european-election-results-tories-brexit-party-farage-no-deal-eu-a8931561.html

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/02/peterborough-prepares-for-byelection-that-could-see-first-brexit-party-mp

Brexit Party is certainly not social-national, even if it is a way-station on that journey.

Brexit Party is planning a large rally on 4 June 2019, two days before the actual by-election at Peterborough. The last one they held in the city attracted 2,000 people who actually paid to attend! This one? We shall see. This one is free, so who knows, though the auditorium which seems to be the largest space at the chosen location (The Cresset, Bretton) only has 850 seats: https://www.cresset.co.uk/functions-and-events/conferences/

It may be that the exhibition space at the same place is larger.

The Remain whiners are still desperately tweeting against Brexit Party. See, for example (below) a tweet by angry lesbian scribbler and msm “celebrity” Emma Kennedy, who tweets endlessly on things she thinks she knows about (she used to get angry at me on Twitter until I muted the silly woman). Her “Brexit supporters are ignorant knuckledraggers” viewpoint is very very typical of Remain whiners, who so often imagine themselves to be well educated and intelligent and Leave partisans to be the reverse. She has evidently not considered the alternative view, i.e. “anyone who keeps voting for the LibLabCon parties, who have detailed policies sometimes but rarely carry them out, is a fucking idiot”! Discuss.

In fact, in that regard, stand up, Emma Kennedy! She now supports the LibDems, who fooled millions in 2010 with a lot of talk about human rights, helping the disadvantaged, having a fairer voting system. They betrayed every single one of their manifesto promises!

Someone answers the same tweet of Emma Kennedy, who evidently has time on her hands…(but she herself does not deign to answer the tweeter; of course not— he disagreed with her kneejerk flawed view and lack of logic…)

Actually, Emma Kennedy never replies to those who contradict her nonsense, as here, where she had tweeted that some black Remain nonentity should have stood at Peterborough (I agree. He should have: when he lost, it would have provided a laugh, and in the unlikely event that he won, he would at long last have a job!)

Oh, dear. Seems that most people disagree with Emma…

and

Seems that some people do not give angry scribbler Emma the respect that she thinks that her “ideas” (derivative, flawed) deserve. Don’t they know that she is a “celebrity“?! I mean, she was on Celebrity Masterchef only, er, 7 years ago (in 2012)…and was writing children’s books from 2007 to, it seems, 2011…Ah, well, time can be cruel…

I really should not waste too much time on someone unknown to most people, but it seems to me that Emma Kennedy is rather typical of the Remain whiners: abusive, unable to see that the EU is no guarantor of human rights or civil rights (in reality), sure that she and her Remainiac colleagues are both right and far far more intelligent and better-educated than the Leave/Brexit “fucking idiots”.

What would she make of me? Well, in fact I already know, because (before Twitter expelled me in 2018) she tweeted to the effect that I am a “Nazi” etc (and even if so, does that mean that I am always wrong??). She of course has no idea that I once had my IQ tested at 156, and was (like her) a lawyer (a practising barrister as well as an expat international lawyer; she was a failed solicitor in the 1990s: she did 3 years in the City of London but admits that she was “no bloody good”).

Likewise, Emma Kennedy of course has no idea that I have visited (and even lived in) countries all over the world, from Kazakhstan to the USA, and Egypt to Australia, from the Caribbean to Southern Africa, from the Arabian Gulf to Russia, Poland etc etc (to name but a few places). That would not fit her constipated Hampstead/msm world-view, in which the typical Leave/Brexit supporter is someone of low IQ, poorly-educated, who has never travelled beyond his home in a “left behind” town such as Clacton or Margate, and has of course never met any persons of other race or culture.

By the way, this (below) is the African loudmouth that Emma Kennedy and various other idiotic Remain whiners, pro-immigration whiners etc wanted to see stand as a candidate at the Peterborough by-election:

His name is Femi Oluwole (from the name, I presume Nigerian origin). Who/what is he? Until the EU elections, I had never heard of him. His Twitter account (@Femi_Sorry) says that he is a “law grad”. That seems to be the sum total of his life achievement to date. Age? 20-something; maybe 30. He does not appear to have a job, as such, or a profession. He works for “Our Future Our Choice” [https://www.ofoc.co.uk/], which says (in small print and buried in its website) that “OFOC is powered by: Best for Britain, Open Britain, and The European Movement”.

Powered by”? In other words, “funded by”. The EU is funding “OFOC” (and him), in other words. It has several people working full-time for it, and its office is in very expensive Millbank Tower, where the Labour Party, Conservative Party, EU and UN organizations etc have or have had offices.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millbank_Tower

http://www.millbanktower.co.uk/

This Femi person may pretend to be some kind of semi-amateur social media activist, but the big guns of the EU propaganda machine are behind him, broadcasting to his 177,000 apparently rather silly Twitter followers. Ironic that here we have a directly-involved organization, paid ultimately by the EU, and involving itself in a by-election (not for a party but against a party —Brexit Party), yet the Femi person and others make much of the supposed foreign funding for that party!

Below, a tweet from “Femi”, which to me shows that logic is not his strong point.

Another? It seems that “Femi” does not understand the UK political system or the British Constitution:

I wonder whether this Femi will ever get a real job? Doubtful. Another example of the wonderful multikulti “diverse” UK. He does not seem to have understood that Peterborough (where black Africans are “only” 1.4% of the population) had an African MP until quite recently. It was not a successful experiment.

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/21/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-fiona-onasanya-story/

Still, there it is. “Femi” is going around Peterborough, loudly talking mostly at (and insulting) the locals, filming himself and unwittingly causing even more voters to vote Brexit Party on 6 June…I suppose that he assumes that he will be offered a political position by a System party, or even become an MP at some point. Ha ha. Don’t count on it.

 

11 thoughts on “EU Elections 2019 in Review: Brexit Party”

    1. Last time I looked they were still heavily odds-on (1/7). Logically, all or almost all Leave/Brexit votes are going to go Brexit Party. In the Referendum, Peterborough was 61% or more Leave. Then the infamously-termed Conservative “shitshow” over Brexit (and rail, and prisons, and justice system, and “welfare”, and almost everything else) has collapsed the Con vote. As I blogged, any intelligent Conservative voter who wants Labour to lose has to vote Brexit Party today, to keep Labour out.

      Many LibDem voters will vote Labour tactically, but many will stick with LibDems. The anti-Brexit Party vote is therefore badly split. As for former Labour Party voters, some will defect to Brexit Party or LibDems.

      I have no reason to think that the Conservative or LibDem candidates have any real chance of winning. The only fly in the Brexit Party ointment is that BP may not be as organized as Labour in getting people to actually vote. However, Brexit Party voters seem energized to vote, whereas Labour supporters who are still Labour may not be, especially after the monkeyshow of 2017-19.

      I think that Brexit Party will win and win handsomely, getting over 40% of the vote. If Brexit Party were to lose, that would not only be a big blow for it in itself, but seriously dent its future prospects.

      https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/notes-from-the-peterborough-by-election/

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      1. I think the result will be broadly inline with the national opinion polls in which Labour has just retaken the lead. Labour’s vote nationally has fallen substantially since the general election of 2017 and has, on average, dropped by about fifteen points – a percentage fall of approximately 37%. Labour outperformed it’s national vote share average of 2017 in this seat by about 7% . The Tories have dropped by more. Peterborough is a Labour Party seat held by them when the party is in opposition so their vote should hold up better because of these two factors. Also, Peterborough has many Asian Muslims who are very loyal to Labour and who are very unlikely to vote Tory let alone for the Brexit Party who they will perceive as ‘racist’ despite the fact it is a liberal-left globalist party like all the rest on immigration/race/Islam issues – the issues that Tory Boy Nigel got a hump about and left UKIP over. Muslims also ( I have to hand this to them) go and vote unlike too many Britons.

        I think we could see something like the result in Heywood and Middleton in 2014 where the Tory vote fell and went to UKIP whereas the Labour vote held up well ie a Labour victory by a very small margin of a couple of hundred votes but a smaller vote share than in that by-election and which could be as low as the upper 20’s.

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      2. If Brexit Party loses, it will be because Labour is a party for blacks and browns now, and more generally because any (even mildly) nationalist party is on the backfoot when the cities are full of non-Brits

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  1. I have had a look on the electoral calculus site which was updated on June 3rd and what it says about the Peterborough constituency is interesting as even with the national opinion polls being very volatile at the moment and with Tory Boy’s Personality Cult surging the forecast for that seat is still for a Labour win at the next election albeit on a low vote share and with only about 800 votes to spare. I think the by election will produce something similar with not a great deal of vote share difference between Labour, the globalist media-puffed vanity show, the Lib Dem’s and the Tories. We could witness a By election win by Labour on a low vote share which may be lower than the Eastleigh By Election of 2013 which UKIP nearly won.

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  2. Also, the recent comments by President Trump about the NHS being a part of any new US-UK trade deal may prove to be a crucial factor that will help the Labour candidate squeak home in a Labour held seat whilst that party is the official opposition. Nigel Farage doesn’t seem to realise as the globalist Tory Boy that he is that many people in this country whilst not necessarily being Labour Party fans are wary about the concept of free market forces and economic globalism being allowed to run riot and this is especially the case when it comes to the public services.

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  3. Well, the Brexit Party lost – although narrowly (600) votes, which presumably means that some Lib Dems and Greens voted Labour in-order to keep Brexit Party out. Also, it would not surprise me if Labour used bloc voting from migrants and the Asian Muslims to hold onto the seat! On a related matter i notice Farage showing his “narcissistic” side by showboating outside No 10 with a letter “demanding” involvement in the Brexit discussions – which says it all really and illustrates his huge ego!

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    1. Farage showed his highest card after the EU elections, but has now been trumped by Labour’s Peterborough victory. As you say, it was the ethnic minority vote that swung it for Labour. Maybe only 10,000-20,000 in all in the constituency, meaning 5,000-10,000 votes on a 48% turnout (I think that the Muslims turn out more than English whites anyway) but more than enough to swing the result. Labour is really black/brown now. One bright spot: Lisa Forbes MP seems to be anti Jew Zionist, so that’s something.

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