Morning music
Tweets seen
I never believe “them” without corroborative evidence.
Exactly. Eternal “victims”, even when they are victimizing others.
A mere caution, for attacking an elderly man in the street.
Natalie Elphicke
Whatever the facts of that, there are facts that are indisputable: Natalie Elphicke could have stood at GE 2024 as Con Party candidate. She received 56.9% of the vote in 2019 under that aegis.
I was puzzled as to why Natalie Elphicke crossed the floor, she after all knowing that a general election had to be called sometime before a date in January 2025. Does she have some better offer from outside Parliament? Seems doubtful to me.
Natalie Elphicke gives me a dual impression: not particularly intelligent, but particularly focussed on her own ambitions.
Incidentally, many may be misled by the academic section of her biographical details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Elphicke#Early_life_and_career.
As a former member of Lincoln’s Inn, I have met several people over the years who were (as was Natalie Elphicke— see the Wikipedia entry) beneficiaries of Hardwicke scholarships. None impressed.
I saw this comment:
“Hardwicke Scholarships aren’t that prestigious. A mere submission of an application is more than enough to win one. They give about 150 away each year, and not many more people apply to each inn for a scholarship, surprisingly enough.” [online commentator].
I think that the real figure is nearer to 100 than 150.
To intrude a personal comment, I recall a young blonde lady barrister who (unsuccessfully, in all cases) opposed me in court a number of times during 2002-2008 when I was in chambers in Exeter (she was in another set, also in Exeter). She was a former Hardwicke scholar, just like Natalie Elphicke. I used to think of her as “Mrs Malaprop”, because her use of English was so poor. Comically so. A pretty poor barrister in terms of both legal knowledge and presentation, in my view, though wearing a sense of self-importance as thick as a suit of armour.
I had better not name that lady, mainly for reasons of propriety (I am too poor now to be worth suing; and there would be no basis for such a suit anyway). I just looked her up online for the first time, and found that she is still in Exeter, and still in the same chambers as she was 20+ years ago, apparently flourishing like the green bay tree.
I note that, having been Called to the Bar in 1994, only a few years after me, Natalie Elphicke decided to leave the Bar and to convert to be a solicitor (something that, at least then, basically meant filling out a few forms).
Natalie Elphicke only worked as a lawyer for a year or two, as a salaried employee of the Inland Revenue (as was; now HMRC) during 1995-1997. She married her now ex-husband, Charlie Elphicke, in 1995. They have two children. She appears to have returned to legal work for a year or two during the years 2011-2013, before helping to found a company which was dissolved 2-3 years later.
After that, her husband’s connections seem to have got her a couple of brief public appointments in the years 2016-2019, as well as the CEO job at the Housing and Finance Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Finance_Institute. This may not be very lucrative, though, looking at the Institute’s funding. Hard to say.
Ah…[10 mins later…]… seems that my hunch was correct: that HFI CEO position is entirely unpaid: see https://members.parliament.uk/member/4795/registeredinterests.
Many will know that, though having displayed (performative?) “loyalty” to her disgraced MP husband, Charlie Elphicke, during his trial, Natalie Elphicke had by then already taken over as MP for Dover in 2019. She separated from him in 2020, and later divorced him, prior to which she sold her story to the Sun “newspaper” for £25,000. https://www.kentonline.co.uk/deal/news/mp-wife-of-naughty-tory-paid-25k-to-tell-all-234749/.
I have to say that I agreed (and still agree) with Natalie Elphicke’s comment at the time of her husband’s unsuccessful appeal (against sentence only— he had been sentenced to 2 years, plus £35,000 costs, and was released after a year) that the 2-year sentence was harsh. He had really done very little: “During his trial the court heard how Elphicke groped one of his accusers, chased her around his house, and sang “I’m a naughty Tory, I’m a naughty Tory.” [Wikipedia].
I should have thought that a suspended sentence would have been enough. From what I read at the time, his three crimes were all just silly, really; almost identical, too, and surely only just coming within the “sex crime” area. Pathetic more than anything, in my opinion.
To my mind, if crimes and criminals can be divided into “bad, sad, or mad“, Charlie Elphicke’s conduct was surely “sad“, with a dash of “mad“, but nothing seriously “bad“.
Having —whether rightly or wrongly, and I think rightly— identified Natalie Elphicke as a “go for the main chance” opportunist, why on Earth did she defect to Labour? Looking at the electoral statistics for Dover, she had a very good chance of being re-elected. Maybe Starmer offered her a peerage (seems unlikely, though), or some quango chair (more likely), or a safe Labour seat (relatively unlikely, surely?).
I admit, Mrs. Elphicke’s motivation is still puzzling to me.
As to Charlie Elphicke, I had little time for him when he was an MP, but I have to say that his fall from status and relative affluence has the elements of a minor Greek tragedy. Apparently, he now lives in a small rented flat somewhere like Earl’s Court, and may (I do not know) be either unemployed or working in some obscure occupation. I can find no record of him still on the Solicitors’ Register, and the same is true of Natalie Elphicke, but as far as I know both are still able to practise; again, I cannot say.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-61276734
While looking up the above details, I noticed this story from the Daily Mail in 2022: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10367265/Naughty-Tory-Charlie-Elphicke-makes-700-000-profit-selling-cliffside-home-Kent.html.
Turns out that the Elphickes bought a house on the Kent coast for about £800,000 in 2012, and were able to sell it only a decade later for over £1.5M. The house almost doubled in value in 10 years. A commentary upon the house-price madness in this country.
More tweets
There is also no evidence that Reform UK is getting anywhere. Nothing lower than an across-the-board 20% will win any seats; even a few percent more may only win a small handful, maybe 3-5. 11%, 12%, even 15%, is “nowhere” territory in seat-winning terms.
The LibDems and Greens are on a lower nationwide support, yet have seats in the Commons because their vote is concentrated, here and there.
Having said that, I make two points. Firstly, most intending Reform UK voters know perfectly well that RF is not going to win many, if any, seats. Their vote is a protest vote and/or a way of kicking the Sunak government and Conservative Party, by weakening greatly the Con Party vote in almost every constituency, but without voting Labour.
Secondly, as mooted yesterday, there may be a number, perhaps even a large number, of “secret Reform UK voters”, who do not show up in the opinion polls because they say “Don’t Know” or nominate a mainstream party out of embarrassment. Very English, arguably.
I doubt whether the usual general election convergence will happen this time. People hate and despise the useless Conservative Party governments of the past 14 years, and especially the past 5 years. That includes a huge number of 2019 or previous Con voters.
In fact, I should not be surprised were the Lab-Con gap to widen, though more because the Cons may slide again rather than because Labour increase their percentage.
A plurality of voters do not know where Starmer stands. For Starmer, that may be what he wants.
Telling…
That must be “value” olive oil. The last bottle I bought (extra-virgin olive oil, first cold pressing, but not a single-estate or special one) was nearly £13.
“Incredible posting by Simon Myerson (1) @JewishMirelle’s statement can be opinion and defamatory. (2) Myerson is re-publishing a likely defamatory statement. (3) He’s a KC suggesting to someone on twitter that their statement might not be defamatory. (4) He’s the KC who acted for Pete Newbon according the Telegraph. #GroundhogDay“
Myerson again.
Honest opinion is now a defence [Defamation Act 2013, s.3].
I think that I shall quit now, while I am ahead. I have not been in Bar practice for 16 years, and do not, in general, keep up with changes in the law.
General Election news
According to my use of Electoral Calculus, that might result in a House of Commons with 541 Lab MPs, 46 LibDem, 28 Con, 12 SNP, 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Green, and 18 various Northern Irish.
On those figures, what Disraeli described as “the great Conservative Party, which destroys everything“, would be itself almost destroyed, reduced to a rump of 20 MPs; not even the official Opposition, which would be the LibDems.
Such a result would be a strategic defeat for the SNP too. 12 MPs, down from 56 (out of 59) at the 2015 peak, and 48 at the 2019 GE.
I get the impression that the SNP’s version of fake “nationalism” (blame England/the UK for everything, keep importing non-whites into Scotland, and think it normal to have a Pakistani as First Minister) has well and truly foundered on the rocks of socio-political reality). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party#House_of_Commons.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html.
Of course, a change in the Labour vote of even one point either way would add several to (or subtract several from) the Conservative total, and even more to or from the Labour total.
More tweets
A twisted and evil woman.
“Ukraine knows that it’s all over” While the UK is preoccupied with the general elections, Kyiv “cannot withstand Putin’s brutal attack,” reports the British The Telegraph. Main points:
Kiev was forced to transfer thousands of soldiers to the northeastern part of the front line to try to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region.
The war is reaching a critical point as Western interest in helping Ukraine risks weakening again.
Zelensky seems to understand that time is running out for Ukraine: over the weekend he called on Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to take part in the upcoming “peace summit” in Switzerland.
Zelensky’s team is concerned about the shift of attention in the United States to internal elections: Ukraine is receding into the background.
The harsh reality is that Ukraine risks simply running out of people to fight.“
Exactly.
I have, on the blog, been saying for 2 years that Russia cannot lose this war, and will not lose it.
Ian Robert Millard 
Royal Navy Singers 1938The lyrics might not be acceptable today, except if sung in rap music by blacks.
We are allowing our beautiful English language to be altered and degraded by intolerant outside influences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io0pegiMVtg
LikeLike
Royal Navy Singers 1938
The lyrics might not be acceptable today, except if sung in rap music by blacks.
We are allowing our beautiful English language to be altered and degraded by intolerant outside influences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io0pegiMVtg
LikeLike
So an effectively non removable Labour ‘elected’ dictatorship where the MAJORITY of the electorate is STILL NOT wanting them to govern us with 100% of the power it is then.
FFS, isn’t it about time this country got into the 20th Century let alone the 21st Century we are actually living in and tried to institute a REAL democracy at long last by having Proportional Representation/fair votes?
https://www.makevotesmatter.org.uk
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk
LikeLike
John:
As you say. If Labour were to get 50% of the popular vote, it would, depending on other factors, get well over 90% of Commons seats.
LikeLike
I think their maximum vote share will be 47% and they will probably go no lower than 40%. Of course, it is the vast gap between the two big parties that our archaic, unfit for purpose, electoral system will exaggerate into an absolute clobbering of the Conservative Party. It always turns a decent lead into a ‘winner’s bonus’ when one party ‘wins’ but the lead is so large the effect will be larger than normal.
‘Britain’s Stupid Party’ might well come to regret their fanatical opposition to Proportional Representation/fair votes and ultra-staunch defence of ‘pure’ First Past The Post.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_past_the_post_voting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation
LikeLike
John:
That is, of course, correct. On 20%, under PR, the Cons would still get 130 seats, whereas under FPTP, it could be as few as 20.
LikeLike
What too many people don’t realise is that the ‘pure’ First Past The Post voting system leads to HUGE numbers of ‘wasted’ votes that don’t contribute in ANY way to the overal election result across the country.
Last time in 2019, around 14,000,000 votes or about 50% of the total were cast for unsuccessful candidates in the one MP per seat constituencies. This was NOT a ‘one off’ as many might think as around the same amount of ‘wasted votes’ occurs at EVERY general election. Put simply, if you don’t cast a vote for the winning candidate/MP in your seat you have immediately ‘wasted’ your vote.
There is actually another type of ‘wasted’ vote in our system ie those cast for the winning candidate/MP over and above that needed for that person to be elected.
As you only need ONE more vote over your nearest opponent to be elected this can involve large numbers of votes.
In my ultra-safe Tory seat of Brentwood and Ongar in Essex the Tory MP won by 29,145 votes so even the Tory voters here ‘wasted’ a total of 29,144 votes. Across the country as a whole about 20% of votes cast last time were surplus votes not needed for a candidate to actually win but just contributed to majorities in those seats.
LikeLike
John:
There are two basic points at issue.
If you are a “democrat”, even to the extent that I am, then you must be concerned at the relatively undemocratic consequences of FPTP voting.
The other point is that FPTP voting leads to entrenchment of useless MPs, and governments without real validity.
LikeLike
Despite an impressive vote share performance last time in the Dover constituency for the Tories, the seat is prone to high swings and normally goes with the political tides so there would been a good chance Natalie Elphicke would have been kicked-out as the Tory MP.
Even in the disastrous 1983 general election for Labour, their candidate retained second place with a decent share of the vote whereas in many other seats in Southern England the Liberal/SDP Alliance emerged as the second placed party.
Dover is a classic ‘swing’ seat.
LikeLike
John:
That still does not explain why Natalie Elphicke bolted. As one of those tweets explained, had she fought the election and *lost* rather than giving up in advance, her payoff from the Commons would have increased by over £5,000. Not a fortune, but worth having. She must have been promised the chair of some bs housing quango, something like that.
Had I been in her position, I should have fought the Dover election, with at least a 50-50 chance of success.
LikeLike
On those Yougov figures, your Tory stronghold seat of New Forest West and my ultra-safe Tory constituency of Brentwood and Ongar (Tory numerical majority of 29,145, a vote share of 68% and a PERCENTAGE MAJORITY of 54.9% over Labour) will be staying Tory but not many other seats will!
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative
LikeLike
John:
Unfortunately, Desmond Swayne is one of the least useful and one of the laziest constituency MPs; in fact, I would call him effectively useless. Not my opinion alone, but also that of lifelong Con voters. However, there are enough of the latter (70 y-o, 80, 90, 100 y-o lifelong Con voters) here, unthinking, uncaring, to keep Swayne in the clover to which he has become accustomed.
Ironically, though, I agree with *some* of Swayne’s views. He is just no good as a constituency MP.
In areas such as this, the Con vote is weighed, not counted. Anyway, the other candidates are usually poor. Labour usually comes 3rd here.
“This constituency covers the part of the New Forest which is not covered by New Forest East, and southern coastal settlements just outside its boundaries. The largest settlements are Fordingbridge and Ringwood which are inland and coastal New Milton and Lymington.”
“For all areas the relevant local authority has a higher than average proportion of retired people, and a lower than national average extent of social housing and rented housing.[2] Housing types include far above average detached and semi-detached properties.[2] Coast and forest are contained in this area.”
[Wikipedia]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Forest_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The locals mostly vote on the basis of things like lower taxes (promised, though not fulfilled). I do think that there is discontent now though, and people are noticing their abandonment by central, county and local government (potholed roads, few police patrolling etc).
LikeLike
Also, the few police officers that ARE employed more concerned with looking at mean tweets criticising the LGBTQI alphabet soup crowd and other favoured minorities than dealing with drug dealing, rapes, gang rapes, burglaries etc. So much for having the self-proclaimed ‘party of law and order’ in office since 2010!
Time for our police to be cleansed of PC mania! Time to reform the PC Stazi!
They haven’t modelled our criminal justice system on a well-governed country like Singapore over their term in office:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime
t
My safe Tory seat since 1974 had our dedicated 1930’s built police station closed down for all of our loyalty to the party.
LikeLike
Labour came second in my seat last time but it was by a tiny amount with the Liberal Democrats just 0.1% behind in third place.
LikeLike
A decent Home Secretary who takes his responsibilities for the maintenance of law and order and effective border controls seriously:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/singapore-is-waging-a-war-against-drugs-death-penalty-an-effective-deterrent-shanmugam
LikeLike
It is more than a little embarrasing to have Barrow In Furness in Cumbria pointed to as an infamous ‘brown town’ ie a hotspot of drug abuse/drug trafficking and its related criminality by the Home Secretary of our ex colony of Singapore in their parliament and used as an example by him of the potential effects of ‘going soft’ on drugs in that country by relaxing their notoriously ultra-tough laws on this subject:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/strong-growing-support-death-penalty-singapore-neighbouring-countries-agree-effectiveness-shanmugam-4316501
LikeLike
The Tories will be getting even lower support than the paltry 20% indicated in that Yougov poll if they don’t stop that new intensely annoying ad featuring Roland Rat coming-up all the time on Youtube as soon as you want to watch a video. I have had it appear at least 15 times today!
A Presidential style-campaign only works for a party if your leader can relate to ordinary people like ‘The Iron Lady’, Margaret Thatcher, could and if such a leader is MORE POPULAR than your main opponent. That is not the case with the unelected Extra from It Ain’t Half Hot Mum!
LikeLike
John:
In British Constitutional theory, a Prime Minister only there by reason of the resignation or removal of his/her predecessor is still validly Prime Minister but, in the real world, it looks like cowardice if the said PM does not subject himself/herself to immediate election by the people; he/she requires the notional validation of a popular vote via a general election. The people dislike PMs who do not do that (Gordon Brown, Liz Truss, Sunak, Callaghan etc).
LikeLike