I write in the early morning of 8 June 2017, General Election day. Within 24 hours, most results will have been counted and announced. Some will come in later in the day on the 9th.
Against almost all expectations (including my own) the election looks as if it may be close-run. Predictions from polling organizations offer everything from a hung Parliament (no overall House of Commons majority) to a solid Conservative HoC majority. However, few if any “experts” are now predicting the 100+-majority landslide that seemed almost inevitable just a few short weeks ago. What happened?
To my mind, what happened to the “Conservative landslide” is that voters suddenly woke up to Theresa May as a brittle, nervy, unhealthy (type-1 diabetes) woman who, though clever at the Westminster version of office politics (outmanoeuvring opponents etc), is not really a national leader. Her “strong and stable” mantra played well at first against a Labour Party frontbench that was (and still is, largely) a joke, but May’s U-turns on policy damaged her and her party badly. The impression was twofold– first, that policies which impact upon almost every family in the land had not been properly thought through; secondly, that faced with public and newspaper opposition, Theresa May was willing to trim or even abandon her policies. “Strong and stable” became “weak and vacillating”. There is a third aspect: Theresa May was seen suddenly as someone who might be ruthless in stamping on such as the pensioners whose votes are so vital to the Conservative Party.
There is that “backroom person suddenly given power” thing about Theresa May. Her career outside politics was at the banks’ cheque-clearing organization, BACS, hardly exciting or cutting-edge work. In fact, as MP and minister, Theresa May did not shine and her long tenure as Home Secretary was marked by absurd initiatives and continuing mass immigration, as well as by the sacking of 20,000 police officers. Her main focus was on careerism, becoming a minister, then plotting for years to become Prime Minister.
The people around Theresa May are not impressive and had been kept in the background by the Conservative election machine. In particular, clown prince Boris Johnson was not prominent. When he did emerge, he messed up (again).
Jeremy Corbyn, on the other hand, went during the campaign from looking like a mixture of crazed radical and ineffectual duffer to looking quite reasonable and, in a word, electable, at least to many. Corbyn too was surrounded by people at best mediocre: Diane Abbott (replaced a day before the election on grounds of “ill-health” after several staggeringly-bad TV and radio interviews); Dawn Butler; Angela Rayner. All deadheads.
Corbyn had been the hate-figure of the mass media, the Jew-Zionist-Israel lobby and the Conservative Party to such a great extent that he eclipsed those around him. In the end, ironically, that may have played well for Labour. The Presidential-style campaign pitted May against Corbyn and, as May’s campaign unravelled, Corbyn’s did not and Corbyn himself began to look a lot more reasonable than May to many.
Labour has promised much. It may not be able to deliver; but the Conservatives seem to offer nothing but ever-more poverty, low pay, poor prospects, more “austerity” nonsense and repression of free speech, egged on by the Jewish Lobby which is so powerful in the Conservative Party (Theresa May herself being a member of Conservative Friends of Israel, as are 80% of Conservative Party MPs).
Few, if any, expect Labour to somehow “win” the election, either by getting a House of Commons majority (practically impossible in view of Labour’s long-term shrinkage and the dominance of the SNP in Scotland) or by becoming the largest party in the HoC. However, Labour now looks as if, far from shrinking its MP numbers from 229 to 200 or even 150 as many (including me) had thought likely, it might retain a Commons bloc (cadre?) not very much reduced from where it was after 2015. A small increase is also not now impossible.
The small Conservative majority in the House of Commons (6, but in practice more because of the non-voting of the Speaker, Sinn Fein MPs, suspended MPs etc) might as easily decrease as increase. A hung Parliament would leave the Conservatives as the largest party, almost certainly, but unable to rule except as a minority government, outvoted easily by hostile parties, notably Labour and SNP.
Could Labour form a minority government? The convention is that the largest party in the Commons has first chance to cobble together sufficient Commons support. As Bagehot put it, a government is formed when a party has “the confidence” of a majority in the Commons. If the Conservatives as largest party could not agree something with the SNP, then Labour might try, with a greater prospect of success. Labour social policies are closer to those of the SNP. The same is true in the foreign policy arena.
If the Conservatives achieve a majority greater than that presently enjoyed, then the above will be –in the American sense– moot and irrelevant. If, however, the Conservatives have no majority, then it is quite likely that Labour, even if not the largest party, will be able to form a minority government.
The only fly in that ointment is that the SNP has fewer than 60 seats in the HoC. It may well have only 40 or 45 after the election. If Labour ends up with, even, 250 (20 more than where Labour was before the election was called), that will still be far fewer than 300 even with SNP support, 326 being the necessary number. That would necessitate support from LibDems, Plaid Cymru, Northern Irish MPs etc. Difficult.
One thing is for sure: if the Conservatives lose seats, then Theresa May will have to resign. Corbyn is in a better position. His power comes from the members, who still seem to support him strongly. Moreover, the anti-Corbyn Labour MPs (many of whom are pro-Israel mouthpieces) lose either way. If Labour does reasonably well or not too badly in the election, Corbyn’s position will be upheld. On the other hand, if Labour is badly defeated in the election, the most aggressively anti-Corbyn MPs will lose their seats. They are toast either way.
Looking beyond the election, there will be a space for a new social-national movement down the line. The System parties are increasingly less capable of sorting out Britain’s problems.
Update, 5 December 2018
Looking again at what I wrote 18 months ago, the only glaring error was in assuming that Theresa May would resign if the Conservatives lost seats. They lost seats, they lost their Commons majority, but Theresa May stuck.
I underestimated the limpet quality of a backroom careerist type who had plotted for many long years to become Conservative leader and Prime Minister. She may be hopeless as a Prime Minister, but, by Jingo, she’s there and nothing short of a grenade under her bony **** is going to remove her! I suppose that she might try to hang on even after her (vulgar term) “deal” on Brexit sinks this week or next. That would have to trigger either a no-confidence vote in the Commons or the equivalent in the Conservative Party.
7 thoughts on “General Election Day 2017”
Good article. Well done. Hope you are correct.
To be honest Labour doesn’t stand a dog’s chance in hell. Conservatives on the other hand stand to gain either way. If the Cons gain seats then it is a Stasi style dictatorship for us all, end of free speech with Zionism firmly in control…1984 with fascism of the worst kind…worse than Mussolini, almost approaching Israel…the end of Great Britain as every last screw, nail and pin will be privatised and every city will have numerous food banks, mass unemployment and obscene levels of public debt.
If the Cons lose five or six seats, or worse, then May gets the chop! But then what? Which personification of evil will replace her? Who could be worse? Bojo? Fallon? Rudd? These people are all evil two faced liars…so we lose loser May and gain an even more evil yes-person (I suppose is the pc term for little shits these days)!
Then just think how many more false flag terrorist attacks will happen like Borough Market-London Bridge, Westminster Bridge, Manchester.
By the way, did you know, that driving your car/van/truck on to the pavement to mow down pedestrians is the common or normal way Israelis deal with unwanted Palestinians in Israel? These fake terrorist attacks in Britain are all Mossad style.
However tough Corbyn appears I bet he ultimately bends to the Zionists. Not long now before we see him do a Bojo and don a kippa at the not-Wailing Wall. That wall is actually part of the Roman fortress. The whole Wailing Wall thing is just a fake like the rest of Israel.
This election is irrelevant really because the whole Establishment edifice needs to be replaced. QED as the Romans used to write! About time King Arthur rode out of his cave in Alderley Edge and saved the nation from the Zionist tyranny we are about to endure at the hands of our Israeli trained police.
I was aware that Jew settlers in Israel/Palestine run down Palestinian Arabs, but was unaware that it was a State tactic.
The result of the UK election is still uncertain as I write (not quite 0100 in the morning) but seems that a hung Parliament is not unlikely.
Theresa May is toast unless the Cons win seats overall. Even then, maybe.
There is an emerging UK police state, Zionist controlled via politics and msm. A hung Parliament might at least slow that.
The reality is that the Nationalist movement in this country has been misdirected. Nothing is achieved by tap-tapping away on the internet and endless discussion of esoteric issues that don’t matter to the public. The Alt Right is based on an American metapolitical strategy. It is not suitable for British conditions. What is needed is an authentically British metapolitics, based on real issues and community engagement instead of all this internet nonsense.
Also, I am deeply offended by the implication made by some Nationalists (I appreciate not here) that the public are stupid or somehow deficient in their knowledge and understanding. This is not true. It is painfully obvious where the deficiencies are: it is with us. Why should people support us? We never discuss that question. We don’t say anything relevant to their lives and instead live in a bubble.
As I type this, I am watching the smug traitors on the BBC gloat about the destruction of my country. There is now even a possibility that Labour might secure a majority, and although I doubt that will happen, it is extraordinary that such a possibility would even be mooted. Jeremy Corbyn is a wet treasonous upper middle-class bourgeois twit who should be working as an obscure geography teacher, but he is taken seriously because – to give him his due – he respects the public and addresses their issues. We need to learn from this.
As a former Labour Party activist (very many years ago), I always knew that the decline of Labour was exaggerated. I wish I had gone with my initial instincts on this, based on experience, which told me that Corbyn was a serious threat.
There is no dressing this up, I’m afraid. All this talk from Nationalists of a “collapse” or a “civil war” is complete and utter nonsense. Utter tripe and foolishness from people who need to grow-up.
I appreciate your excluding me from most of the defaults you mention. I do not see a civil war as imminent (under present conditions). Anyway, as it stands, the nationalists of various kinds have no army!
Not completely in agreement about Internet activism being useless even if it can be “slacktivism” or a reason not to do other political work. After all, the Jewish-Zionist element would not be so determined to repress free speech online were it without effect.
If you read some of my blog posts, you will see that I see a way forward as being relocation of social-nationalists to a “safe zone” where face-to-face networks can be established without interference, where MPs etc can be elected. A Clausewitzian “secure base”.
It may be that traditional political work (as per LibDems, UKIP) has its place, but UKIP tried for 25 years with only limited effect (if you take away the EU Parliament MEPs elected under a more sympathetic system, almost no effect).
Well it looks like Corbyn is going to challenge May’s policies while being debated in the chamber. If he can defeat May and the Conservatives then the Queen’s Speech can not then go ahead.
At this point the Queen will be obliged to ask Corbyn if he can form a government. If Corbyn can and also get his policies through parliament then he will be the next PM.
If Corbyn fails then it will be another election in September. If this happens the youth will vote Corbyn in to power, Brexit will be cancelled and the NHS will be saved.
The other scenario is that Mossad will unleash another dozen false flag terrorist events just like London Bridge, Westminster Bridge, Manchester, Nice (read Brighton) etc etc. End result will be a government of national unity with May as PM and Corbyn as Deputy PM or some such confidence trick… Since Westmister is a total charade ordered by Rothschild, ‘pay yer money an’ take yer pick’ as the saying goes!
Personally I’m going for umpteen terrorist attacks Mossad style, followed by a five year government of national unity. This will result in a fascist state in the UK of unrivalled brutality, as the filthy rich scum pass us in to third world status, after they have stripped us bare!
Merry Christmas Mr Orrance as the Japanese prison camp commander said!
My view is that there is a 60-40 chance (at least) that the Queen’s Speech vote will be passed. LibDems may abstain, for one thing. Corbyn does not have the numbers to defeat the Cons on the Queen’s Speech unless numbers of Conservative MPs abstain (or vote against) and that is unthinkable.
Theresa May shows no sign of understanding how precarious her situation is. As I tweeted a week or two ago, she would be no good in a crisis (arguably a Prime Minister’s sine qua non). I think that I have already been proven correct in this.
However, she may last for a few months. I doubt that she can go on beyond Christmas.
ps: I am not going to post on this site your other comment. It is libellous to several people and organizations on its face and I have no way of knowing how accurate any of the claims you make about Britain First, Candour, London Forum etc may be.