The Political Mood is Changing

There has been a see-sawing between the two main System parties for several years. At first, say in 2014-2015, it looked as though Labour was about to go into possibly terminal decline. I have no doubt that, had any of the pro-Israel, pro-EU candidates in the first post-GE 2015 Labour leadership contest (Liz Kendall, Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper) won, that would have come to pass. As we know, Corbyn won that contest, and Labour, though it came in second at the 2017 General Election, reduced the Conservative government to minority status. Since then the parties have generally been close together in the opinion polls, with the Conservatives usually slightly higher.

Since the 2017 election, the only difference between the two is that Corbyn has been favoured by fewer as a potential prime minister. Theresa May had the edge but no ringing endorsement (a typical result was Corbyn 25%, Theresa May 35%, Don’t Know 40%). I have not seen a recent poll about the System party leaders, but there have been recent polls vis a vis the upcoming EU election and re. Westminster voting intentions (the next general election might in theory only be in 2022, but there seems to be an acceptance that it might in fact be this year, as I predicted was not unlikely).

Here are recent poll results (questions asked about 3-8 days ago), collated by Britain Elects. The position of Nigel Farage’s pop-up Brexit Party is volatile, but it is plainly one of the two most favoured; UKIP is evidently some way behind all of Brexit Party, Labour and Conservative Party, but the important point is that both Brexit Party and UKIP will take votes mainly from the Conservatives in the EU elections (always assuming that the UK participates) and (if Brexit Party and UKIP put up candidates) in the general election of 2019 (if it happens). There are also local elections coming (2 May 2019) but the beneficiary there will be Labour, UKIP not being able to fight most seats and Brexit Party not standing at all.

It can be seen that YouGov is more bullish on Brexit Party’s chances than is ComRes, and that BP’s ratings vary daily or so even from a single pollster. However, there is some reason to believe that Farage’s new vehicle is riding even higher now (some estimates put its reach at over 30%).

An amateur or perhaps semi-professional psephologist has come up with this seat prediction for the EU election in the UK (based on a YouGov opinion poll):

Well, that’s for the EU Parliament. What about Westminster? The msm consensus now is what I have been predicting for a couple of years, Labour probably the largest party, but without overall majority. Where does that leave the Conservative Party? Quite possibly up a certain well-known creek without a paddle.

As I said here above, only a few years ago Labour looked like collapsing into becoming a niche party with maybe a 25% popular vote. Now things look very different: Corbyn has bent like the bamboo before the wind as the Jews (and the heavily Jew-influenced msm) have accused him of “anti-Semitism” (the Circuit judge in the Alison Chabloz appeal hearing recently confirmed that “anti-Semitism” is not a crime in England anyway…pass it on…).

The Zionist storm has been ferocious around Corbyn since 2015, but he simply sways with the wind. If I had not read that Corbyn scarcely reads books (one of his ex-wives said that he read not one book during their 4 years together!), I would take Corbyn for an acolyte of Sun-Tzu.

Well, much has happened since Corbyn took over. A membership/support base of about 200,000 has become one of 500,000+, Labour no longer has financial problems, its members and supporters are often young, and its poll ratings are finally improving.

Now it is the Conservative Party that may be facing an existential crisis. We read that only about 5% of Conservative rank and file members want Theresa May to stay as Leader, that donations have completely dried up, that the median age of Conservative Party members is 51 (with many over 80 or even 90), and that the supposed 120,000+ membership number is either only a paper figure or shows huge numbers of completely inactive members who take no part in the party even locally or socially, but are signed up to bank direct debits.

Only 16% of voters under 35 intend to vote Conservative, while the figure for under-25-years is a mere 4%. True, Conservative voters have always been mainly middle-aged and elderly, but not to this extent.

The Conservatives have usually trumped Labour on competence (in public perception, but God knows why…), but that is now faltering. The Conservatives can say that a Corbyn government would be incompetent, but the voters have seen that (as with David Cameron-Levita) the Theresa May Conservative government has been proven so: the NHS deteriorating, the police incapable of stopping the rise in violent crime, the increase in Internet snooping and monitoring of ordinary white British citizens by police, MI5 etc, the numbers being made homeless or literally starved to death thanks to the incompetent “welfare” “reforms” of Iain Dunce Duncan Smith and the jew “lord” Freud etc; then there are the potholed roads, the bursting and inefficient railways, not to mention the millions of unwanted immigrants, often from backward, violent and useless ethnic groups, flooding in almost without restraint. Police stations have been closed and sold, prisons are in a appalling state, people are imprisoned for saying anything against the Jews, but given small fines for bad crimes of violence. Then there are the squeezes, over a decade, on incomes.

The appalling muddle over Brexit has crystallized such feelings about this government’s sheer incompetence.

About half the chairmen of local Conservative parties have said that they will be voting Brexit Party in the EU elections. The Conservative Party is a party which is folding. The leader has no credibility, Cabinet members have neither loyalty nor discipline, its MPs are also without discipline, and it seems that donations have dried up.

A damning Survation poll of 781 Tory councillors today found 76% want the Prime Minister to resign – with 43% saying she must go immediately” and “One councillor questioned in the study said: “The Conservative Party is dead. It will take a strong leader to dredge it out of the mud.””

[Daily Mirror]

The Daily Mail has a similar story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943297/Devastating-poll-shows-40-Tory-councillors-Nigel-Farages-new-party.html

I am embarrassed to be a member at the moment. This will be a case study of (predictable) incompetence which has made our country and party a laughing stock around the world.” and “I will not vote Conservative nationally again. I have been a lifetime supporter and a Conservative councillor for 33 years.

[Daily Mail]

It was the early symptom of the membership demographic problem (aka “an ancient membership…”), from 2010, that led to the Conservative Party trying to plug the door-knocking gap by bussing in hordes of young Con activists and/or employees via the disastrous Mark Clarke tour, because many constituency associations had almost literally no-one willing to canvass voters, mostly because, while some constituency associations had 200 or even 300 members, all of them were either infirm or far beyond retirement age.

More generally, it can be seen that there is a move to radical and even revolutionary politics. MSM scribblers are starting to take notice:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943195/The-political-centre-disappearing-grave-danger-lies-ahead-says-JOHN-GRAY.html

To listen to strong “Brexiteers”, one would imagine that Brexit is the only issue. Poorly-educated and perhaps not very intelligent msm scribblers, such as Susie Boniface, the so-called “Fleet Street Fox” (a Remain partisan), make the same mistake in reverse. Susie Boniface writes that the voters of Newport West, in the recent by-election, voted for a Remain-supporting (Labour) MP despite the fact that the area (not the exact area) voted Leave in 2016. She infers from that that voters have changed their mind on EU membership. No, they simply wanted a MP who (supposedly) believes in public services, decent pay and fair benefits for those that need them. Is it so hard to understand such things? Maybe if you are a London-based scribbler making a few hundred thousand a year and writing to an agenda…

We can see, looking ahead, that people are turning away from the System parties because the needs of the British people are simply not being met on any of the issues raised above. For the moment, those for whom Brexit is all-important have the safety-valves of UKIP and Brexit Party; on other issues, for many, Corbyn-Labour will fill the gap, for a while. In the end, though, only real social nationalism can offer a future for the real British people. 2022 may be the decisive year.

Note on Voting Percentages

The “glorious uncertainty” of British politics (oddly-drawn constituencies, FPTP voting etc) makes popular vote percentages of less importance than would be the case in a system of even passing fairness.

As can be seen from the linked charts, below, the Conservatives under Theresa May got a higher popular vote percentage (42.3%) in 2017 than the party had managed since Margaret Thatcher in 1983 (42,4%), yet only 317 MPs (currently 312) as against Mrs. Thatcher’s 376! In 2015, under David Cameron-Levita, the Conservatives got a popular vote of 36.9%, yet ended with 330 MPs!  That’s the British system of voting— ridiculous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#UK_general_elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

General Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susie_Boniface#Personal_life

Update, 22 April 2019

recent msm comment:

Note that the percentages shown below relate to the views of Conservative councillors, and not those of rank and file members (or ordinary voters):

Labour has problems as well…; but it is a measure of how angry and frustrated voters are that not even the prospect of Diane Abbott (here seen drinking a canned alcoholic mojito on the Underground/Overground) as Home Secretary is (much) denting Labour’s poll rating now!

Meanwhile…

 

The racially and culturally inferior are allowed to flood into the UK and the rest of Europe, and in the UK are tolerated, given housing, given food money and more if they start breeding. Meanwhile, for the British, life becomes harsher daily:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/21/stephen-smith-liverpool-seriously-ill-emaciated-man-denied-benefits-dwp-dies

21 thoughts on “The Political Mood is Changing”

  1. If Farage thinks his party will change the political landscape then he must be more deluded thsn he looks, although i believe that deep down he knows it won’t but in the short term some voters will fall for his scam allowing him to get back onto the gravy train! It also makes me wonder if “Parliament” will try extra hard for a deal – in order to avoid the EU elections and stop the Brexit party? Off topic the JC is at it again! https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/harry-potter-is-gringotts-picture-antisemitic-1.482785

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    1. Ha ha! Very funny!

      Re. Farage: Brexit Party in itself will change nothing, *except* that, at a vital moment in UK political history, it will deprive the Con Party of votes. That could be crucial, weakening the Cons re. any general election this year. UKIP may be better ideologically than Brexit Party, but there is not very much to choose, really, and UKIP’s day is done.

      Following your suit and going off-topic, it occurs to me that, *if* (which I still very much doubt) Boris Johnson were to become Con leader, and so PM by default, the DUP would really be able to weigh itself in gold tribute in exchange for those lifesaving few votes in the Westminster monkeyhouse.

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  2. Speaking of Ireland, this grouping which has just registered as a political party seem quite interesting, although no idea their position on Israel etc!

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      1. Sounds more or less OK on most of the main issues, judging by this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_(Ireland,_2016)

        I am not very fully informed about Irish politics today, so have no idea whether this is a “two men and a dog” party (like “For Britain” in the UK) or something real.

        I notice that Ireland, like the UK (the latter thanks to scheming globalist/Zionist Tony Blair) has a requirement for political parties to be “registered” and so monitored, controlled, fined and, if it suits, just shut down…Martin Bell called that (UK) Act of 1997 “profoundly undemocratic”. It has been used to whip in the BNP and others.

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    1. Just read that. Very sad. Poor guy has lost everything (on the emotional level), it seems. In an ideal world, these countries would be under European, pref. British control, as they were before the full effects of the disastrous Second World War were felt (in some ways they are even now being felt).

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      1. Spot-on. Most of the countries we used to rule haven’t done very well for themselves under independence. Singapore has but you soon run out of names after that one with Zimbabwe being a particularly notorious example at the other end of the scale with its descent from the well-run and prosperous ‘Breadbasket of Africa’ under a British colonial governor and Ian Smith to your typical, starving, economic and social basket case under black independent rule.

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      2. Yes indeed. I have never visited Singapore, but I did see “Zimbabwe” under its then name of Rhodesia, in 1977.

        Aged 20, I was taught to play hide and seek amid vast tracts of tall yellow grass and rocky outcrops. International sanctions were in place, which meant that many goods easily available in the UK were either unavailable or very expensive in Salisbury, the capital (now, of course, “Harare”). I myself, used to browsing in Charing Cross Road, missed books the most (having said that, most white Rhodesians seemed not to require much intellectual stimulation anyway). The main bookshop in Salisbury seemed to specialize in books about how to look after your dog, horse, goldfish etc, together with the works of Wilbur Smith.

        However, new cars from around the world (except the UK, it seemed!) were around, despite petrol rationing, and the local beer, Lion lager (usually referred to as Simba —pronounced “Shumba”—), was good, as was Castle pilsner from South Africa. In fact, I preferred Castle, which was marginally more expensive. If you wanted wine, though, forget it! At that age, I drank mainly beer, orange juice or water anyway. No Chateau Margaux.

        Now look at “Zimbabwe”. When I see Harare on TV, I can hardly believe it. A beautiful city and country reduced by a few decades of African rule to complete degradation in every way. I thought that South Africa would go the same way after 20 years of ANC misrule post-early 1990s. I concede that I was too pessimistic: I forgot that the proportion of whites was far higher than had been the case in other African countries. South Africa is getting down there though, sliding faster downhill with every passing year…

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    1. The report says that, after release from prison, he “may” face deportation! MAY? He should be shot!

      BTW, I just read some of the other crime reports in that newspaper. Is it just my impression that there seems to be a bad problem up there with serious sex crimes, or is it the newspaper sensationalizing?

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      1. Well there has been three “serious” sex assaults recently – which is unusual for the area! I believe at least one is certainly linked to “foreigners” – an attack by two men on a bridge! They maybe linked to the others but not sure. Generally the “area” is pretty safe, unless a person gets caught up in the drunken nightlife and becomes a victim!

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      2. I understand. When I lived in Almaty, Kazakhstan, for a year (1996-97) there were a few murders, including the torture-murder of someone who apparently lived almost opposite me on a major street (Prospekt Lenina), and who was tied to a chair before being killed. He had met his two killers at a casino. I myself never went near such places. Had a generally peaceful year.

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      3. Furthermore to your question, rapes etc are pretty unusual, although with the “slowly” increasing diversity they are becoming less rare. I will say we had a spate of “individuals” either following, or in some cases “exposing” themselves to women and girls and nearly all turned out to be non-white! I suppose that is the price we have to pay for a more diverse and tolerant society!

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  3. Re The National Party of Ireland, I believe it isn’t a bad party in general apart from its stance on a so-called ‘United Ireland’ which seems to me to have never truely existed in practice as the only time that island has been one constitutional unit was when it formed an integral part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland pre 1922. Before then, the place wasn’t a modern unified state and was just a small collection of quasi statelets under the nominal authority of a High King. Interfering Yanks like Pelosi or whatever her surname is please, finally, take note.

    At any rate, no genuinely Democratic Party or government should pursue a policy of annexing part of another country without seeking to obtain the consent of those living there.

    In general, I am pretty relaxed about LGBT rights including gay CIVIL marriage. It shouldn’t be allowed in church unless the religious denomination agrees. Yes, it is changing the definition of marriage but unlike globalist traitors Tories and Labour changing the traditional definition of who constitutes the British nation, flooding us with a myriad of foreigners from every country as a result of doing that arising from their beliefs what real long term and substantial harm to society is caused by two men or two women obtaining a civil marriage certificate?

    I have only been reticent about supporting two of the law changes in this area ie gay adoption because that isn’t just an individual right and the gay age of consent. It is possible to argue, without being intolerant, that the age of 16 is too low. The old age of 21 was a bit on the high side so it would have been fine for Parliament to have set it at 18 like they nearly did in 1994.

    I think the lesbian, gay and bisexual issue should be separated from transexualism. I would be a lot more cautious about this part of the LGBT spectrum.

    I think this party will probably have a hard time getting elected in the Republic since that country uses a very specific version of PR called the Single Transferable Vote which uses ranked ballots ie preference voting so people who have strong opinions as this party undoubtedly does normally find it harder to gain sufficient support to get elected unless they get decent numbers of transfers from the supporters of other parties. Nationalist parties are often demonised by the press so that could be a problem for them.

    In general though, this party is a big improvement upon the crap we get over here including the nonsensical, globalist media puffed Brexit ‘party’ of Thatcherite Tory drunk bore Nigel Farage.

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    1. Thank you.
      Ireland has changed hugely since I first went there in the 1970s. When I returned, in the mid 1980s, Dublin was already rather different (busier, perhaps more prosperous; only my impression). I have not been there since then, in the eras when the “Celtic Tiger” rose and fell. I know Ireland now only or mostly from TV and radio.

      I find those questions of sex rather secondary from the political point of view. Ages of consent (heterosexual or homosexual) vary widely in various jurisdictions. Even in Europe, ages of consent vary between 14 and 18, with most around 14-16: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_consent_in_Europe

      In fact, the situation is far more complex, as the Wikipedia article shows. For example, the Netherlands, 1990-2002, “operated what was in effect an age of consent of 12, subject to qualifications”. The problem with these questions is that the simpler kind of people (deprived of the witch-hunts of their rural ancestors) want to be told that (as in UK), for example, 16 is fine, but 15 means that the man (of whatever age) is a “paedophile” and deserving to be shot etc.

      As far as gay marriage is concerned, my view is that the UK “civil partnership” eliminated most if not all of the nuisance and injustice of the previous situation (eg re. inheritances etc); however, I think that “marriage”, under that name, should be reserved for men and women. We are just talking about names and/or perceptions, really, from the legal point of view at least.

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      1. Re. civil partnership – Cameron -Levita and others in Government insisted it would not lead to Gay Marriage, then low and behold he snook it in – despite not being in his manifesto! The irony is that the “Bill of Rights” – which was included in said manifesto never materialized and which we are still waiting for nearly three years after Brexit!

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      2. The LGBT rights issue was one of the few areas of policy Nick Griffin didn’t really reform the party’s attitudes to and should have done not just because it would have been the right thing to do anyway but because the party could have stolen a much needed march on UKIP which still contained some backward Tories and had a consequent need to appease them and did. This would have given the BNP a positive means of differing itself from UKIP and attracting the possible support of gay, lesbian and bisexual socially conservative patriots worried about Islamism.

        Basically, Nick should have changed the party’s line to endorsing civil partnerships. Also, this would probably have helped to rid the party of the nuttier elements as having an extreme stance on the issue tends to attract these types.

        I certainly agree with your general point about sexual issues and party politics. It is better as a matter of pure politics to give these issues a back seat. They shouldn’t be used to define a nationalist party. Virtually none of the successful Continental parties take extreme positions on the LGBT issue (Marine Le Pen’s party, for example, endorses civil unions and there are quite a few gay Frenchmen and women who vote for it). The AFD has a lesbian woman as a co leader.

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  4. Bob Matthews, the main push for gay marriage came from the Liberal Democrat part of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition rather than the Tories. However, that being said, I think this policy would still have seen the light of day eventually even under. a Tory majority government not just because they are becoming ever more liberal-left inclined but also because they saw that measure as a means to hold off the total collapse of Tory support in inner city areas (most gays live in London ext) so gay/lesbian/bisexual voters would vote Tory instead of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green in the still Tory-held marginal seats. Remember, this minority group is still mainly white so they don’t have a natural antipathy towards the Tories as many ethnics do.9

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