Afternoon music
Battles past
Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections 2023
Tamworth constituency has a fairly ancient history (on various different boundaries and names), going back to the 13th Century. Its most famous MP was Sir Robert Peel, who represented the town from 1830-1850 (he was MP for three other places from 1809-1830), and who was Prime Minister 1834-1835 and 1841-1846: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Peel.
The most recent MP, the appropriately-named Chris Pincher, was rather less distinguished, having been finally forced to resign in 2023 after several years of having been accused, then eventually adjudged guilty, of having sexually molested men, including MPs, in bars.
Looking at his Wikipedia entry, it seems that Pincher only became an MP in 2010, at age 41, and had done nothing very interesting prior to that (though Wikipedia is not infallible). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Pincher.
Tamworth, on its present boundaries, was held by Labour from 1997 (when the present seat was brought into being) until 2010; Pincher failed to secure the seat in 2005, but took it in 2010 with a vote-share of 45.8%. Thereafter, his percentage vote increased at every election, peaking in 2019 at 66.3%.
At that 2019 election, Labour Co-op came in second, but poorly, on 23.7%. The other 4 candidates were very much also-rans, only the LibDems retaining their deposit (with 5.3%).
The by-election will be held on 19 October 2023, and has attracted 9 candidates: Conservative, Labour, LibDem, Green, UKIP, Reform (the latest Farage vehicle), Britain First, Monster Raving Loony, and an independent. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-66864806 for candidates’ details.
This is probably a Con-Lab 2-horse race, with the LibDems possibly having a slim outsider chance. The Guardian has talked to a few voters: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/30/tamworth-voters-byelection-tories-chris-pincher
The Government is obviously deeply unpopular, and also seen as useless. However, Labour is not much liked either. There may be protest vote possibilities, but the main object may be to send a message to the Government, and I suppose that a vote for Labour is most likely to cause the Government pain, if it results in the by-election ending with a Labour win.
Hard for me to call. I have only once even driven through the town, and that was long ago. Not an area I know. Overall, it seems to me that the LibDems are too marginal here to have much chance, so it is between Con and Lab. To elect the Labour candidate would require a huge swing, but I think that it must be possible, as public feeling now stands.
If Labour can pull it off at Tamworth, the 2024 General Election will look sealed. The over-used word “seismic” comes to mind.
So we turn to Mid-Bedfordshire.
Nadine Dorries had to be almost forced out of the seat she had held since 2005, and which had provided her with a good income; both salary and very inflated expenses. She was lucky to have avoided prosecution. A very stupid, entirely uneducated, but withal cunning woman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadine_Dorries.
The by-election, to be held on 19 October 2023, the same day as that at Tamworth, has attracted no less than 13 candidates, mostly minor or crank.
Nadine Dorries scored 59.8% at the 2019 General Election (Labour 21.7%, LibDems 12.6%).
Mid-Bedfordshire has been a Conservative Party seat since the 1920s.
This would normally be a shoo-in for the Conservative Party candidate, but several factors make that less than likely. Anger at the freeloading and fraudulent behaviour of Nadine Dorries. The general anger at the present Government. Perhaps also the fact that the Con candidate is a careerist black: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festus_Akinbusoye.
The Conservative Party candidate is presently Police and Crime Commissioner for Bedfordshire, only came to the UK at 13 from his native Nigeria, and is a Mormon.
The opinion polls have Con and Lab neck and neck, with the LibDems not far behind. Tactical voting may play the decisive role, but does that mean anti-Con voters voting Labour, or voting LibDem?
Reform, the Farage vehicle, is polling around 7%, as is county council chairman Gareth Mackey, standing as Independent.
Very hard to call, but Labour may just have the edge.
I suppose that the other point is that Sunak may be pressured to stand down as Con Party leader if one contest is lost (or only if both are lost?).
[Update, 22 January 2024: in the end, Labour won both by-elections.
At Tamworth, the Labour candidate won with 45.8% of the vote, Con Party in second with 40.7%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Tamworth_by-election.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, the result was even closer, Labour winning with 34.1% of the vote, Con 31.1%, and the LibDems doing well in third on 23.1%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Mid_Bedfordshire_by-election.
In both by-elections, Reform UK proved underwhelming (4th and 5th placed, respectively).
Sunak did not resign, despite the double loss.].
From the news
Tweets seen
Whatever may be said of Labour or Angela Rayner, that tweet is surely correct. The 2024 General Election is Labour’s to lose. The Conservative Party is just dissolving. I notice that evil sociopath Chris Grayling is now not going to stand for re-election.
Having said that, I see many white-haired and grey-haired people at that Labour show. All System parties are dying, and have few young people supporting them.
Exactly. A million a year coming in, and only a few hundred thousand people (mostly real Brits) leaving (for Australia, New Zealand etc) each year. Result— misery.
Actually, many of the replies to the above tweet show how unthinking the self-describing “Left” pseudo-socialists are. They really think that importing millions of backward persons has no effect on housing provision etc; either that, or they do not care. They really should be regarded and treated as outright traitors.
https://twitter.com/jexmotion/status/1711038210954920007
Read that report. Towards the end:
“He must be desperate or in an awful state to go to such pains to try to come into the country that way.“
Or not able to enter legitimately, having no right to enter.
Brainwashed.
Late tweets
Well, looking at Downing Street this evening, does anyone now doubt what embedded group is pulling the strings of both the “Conservative” and “Labour” parties?
“According to the Turkish sources, due to dwindling stocks of Iron Dome missiles, the Israeli army is not supplying ammunition to some units armed with the complex, with the exception of three batteries in Tel Aviv, one battery in Jerusalem and one battery in Netivot in southern Israel.
The seven batteries do not supply any ammunition or fire, and they only have a limited number of anti-aircraft guided missiles in case Palestinian missiles fly towards critical targets. This explains the fact that launches on Ashkelon, Ashdod and Sderot cause virtually no opposition.”
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 
I was really shocked and very angry when I read that post about the huge number of greyhounds dead by neglect or cruelty. Those bastards running that bloody racket known as “the race industry” should pay with their lives. An eye for an eye. Unfortunately, I cannot sign the petition because to do so you must be a resident in the UK.
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Claudius:
Yes. The “dog racing” industry needs reform, at the least.
There have been improvements over the years, though:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greyhound_racing_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greyhound_racing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Racing_greyhounds_and_welfare
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Tamworth is a battle between the Tories and Labour. Unlike in Mid Beds there is no question as to which party is the challenger to the fake Conservatives since Tories and Labour combined got 90% of the vote between them in 2019 and the Lib Dems barely saved their deposit.
As you say, the seat was won by Labour as recently as 2005 and therefore it had a Labour MP until 2010. As a Labour MP was elected fairly recently that should help Labour as it did in Selby and Ainsty.
It is a seat which heavily voted for Brexit and might well be a ‘white flight’ area near to Birmingham hence the seat trending towards the Tories since the mid 2000’s. This could explain why the Tories have a huge vote share in the seat even though I don’t think the constituency is particularly well-off.
It truly is a impressive vote share which is replicated by few other Tory seats even prosperous ‘commuter belt’ seats like mine in Brentwood and Ongar. We have a Conservative Party share of only a fraction more of 68% and we are their tenth safest seat whereas Tamworth is their 54th.
I think this by-election will be a very close contest and due to the Tories at least choosing an English candidate for a change and that extraordinary vote share they might just squeeze home. They should win it even if it is only by a couple of hundred votes.
Labour requires a massive swing of 21% and they can’t rely upon a ready share of tactical votes from Lib Dems to see them over the line since there are so few of them to squeeze so they will need a big direct swing from the Tory voters or for huge Tory abstention to take place. When Labour is the only obvious challenger the Conservative vote should in theory at least hold up a bit better than it would do if the Lib Dems were in second place and competitive.
https://www.electionpolling/battleground/defence/conservative
To the best of my knowledge there has never been a seat in England where the incumbent party held it with a vote share of 65% plus at the previous general election and the challenger party has managed to subsequently overturn the majority at a by-election.
The Lib Dems haven’t done that let alone Labour. Even the SNP have accomplished this only twice I believe.
If Labour do manage it particularly if it is due to a direct swing from the Tories rather than just huge Tory abstention then that is a truly dire warning of what might happen at a general election next year.
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John:
As I said in the blog post, if Labour really do pull off what punters call “the double” at Tamworth and Mid-Beds, I think that Sunak will not be leading the “Conservatives” into the 2024 General Election (or, if he does, he will be leading them into a defeat which might be existential).
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Yes, the wholly unelected squatter in No.10 showing where his allegiances lie and they are not with THIS country but rather with a vicious, patently evil, international law disregarding Apartheid state built upon the blood of British soldiers and innocent Palestinians who just want to live like normal people everywhere.
Utterly pathetic virtual signalling but then that is his normal abysmal level.
A REAL Tory PM like Chamberlain is probably doing cartwheels in his grave at the moment. The formerly prestigious address of NO. 10 is emphatically NOT a place for childish virtue signalling and certainly shouldn’t be when the scenario is supporting that ‘”shitty little country” as a French diplomat once memorably described it.
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John:
I have noticed on Twitter/X that quite a few Indians are very pro-Israel. I suppose that is a kind of proxy rejection of Muslims rather than being pro-Jewish as such. It may also reflect the Indian interest in money and business.
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I thought Sunak was supposed to be the Tory ‘adult in the room’ compared to Liz Truss which is why they dumped her and replaced her with him?
Utterly childish virtual signalling using NO 10 and a giant flag of a state which so brazenly disrespects international law is not my idea of being such a person.
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John:
It constitutes an admission that Downing Street, and all of Westminster, is occupied territory.
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I have to say that I was surprised by the new, and disgusting, act of subservience of the “British” government. To display the Israeli flag all over 10 Downing St. says everything.
I bet millions of ignorant, brainwashed Britons do not know that Isarel was built over the bodies of 750 British soldiers who were murdered by the “patriotic” Israeli terrorists.
https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/conflict-Palestine
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Claudius:
You are right. Most Brits are completely ignorant of the extent to which British people have been targeted by Jewish terrorists. Having said that, I think that many are now awakening to the menace.
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