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A few more thoughts about the Gorton and Denton by-election
The opinion polls suggest that the contest will be between Reform UK and the Green Party. A few commentators are still saying that Labour might have a residual chance. It seems to me that this by-election is different than most —not all— previous ones, in that there is likely to be a split on racial-cultural lines.
Reports suggest that the Muslim, mainly Pakistani, element of the electorate will vote en bloc, and for the Green Party. They have been turned off Labour by reason of the fact that the present government consists almost entirely of Labour Friends of Israel members. The voters will have noticed Starmer-stein’s slavishly pro-Israel policies, and his many pro-Jewish gestures.
The Green Party is now led by a Jew, but one who is supposedly anti-Zionist and not favourable to the Israeli state. The Greens also favour a near-“open borders” immigration policy.
However, Muslims are less than a third of the entire electorate in that constituency. About 30%. Persons identifying as “Christian”, presumably mostly white British, with some of Irish or other origins, are over 40% of the electorate. Apparently, some 27% do not identify by reference to religion; I am guessing that almost all of those are white English/British too. In other words, it may be that about 68% of the electorate is white English/British or at least European.
https://henryjacksonsociety.org/religiousdiversity/cgi-bin/seatdetail.py?seat=Gorton%20and%20Denton
So assuming that most of the Muslims are going to vote Green, that still leaves nearly 70% of voters who may also vote Green, but are more likely to back Reform, or go elsewhere (or not bother to vote).
My guess at this stage is that rather few English/British (etc) voters will vote Labour. Only a few per cent of that group, probably; maybe 10% or, at outside, 15%.
So if it is true that Labour has lost most of the Muslim/Pakistani votes, and also most of its former English/British voter support (after Labour’s disastrous first 18 months in office), one has to conclude that Labour is very much on the back foot, despite the fact that, at GE 2024, Labour hoovered up over half the votes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorton_and_Denton#Elections_in_the_2020s.
The Conservative and LibDem candidates have no chance in this constituency. A few minor parties are standing, including George Galloway’s Workers’ Party. One can never entirely write off Galloway, but if he stands (or another), that will hit the Green and Labour votes, not (at all) that of Reform UK.
In the circumstances, it seems to me that Matt Goodwin and Reform have every chance, but it might yet be closer than many think between Reform and the Greens.
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Ian Robert Millard 