Morning music
A few more thoughts about the Gorton and Denton by-election
The opinion polls suggest that the contest will be between Reform UK and the Green Party. A few commentators are still saying that Labour might have a residual chance. It seems to me that this by-election is different than most —not all— previous ones, in that there is likely to be a split on racial-cultural lines.
Reports suggest that the Muslim, mainly Pakistani, element of the electorate will vote en bloc, and for the Green Party. They have been turned off Labour by reason of the fact that the present government consists almost entirely of Labour Friends of Israel members. The voters will have noticed Starmer-stein’s slavishly pro-Israel policies, and his many pro-Jewish gestures.
The Green Party is now led by a Jew, but one who is supposedly anti-Zionist and not favourable to the Israeli state. The Greens also favour a near-“open borders” immigration policy.
However, Muslims are less than a third of the entire electorate in that constituency. About 30%. Persons identifying as “Christian”, presumably mostly white British, with some of Irish or other origins, are over 40% of the electorate. Apparently, some 27% do not identify by reference to religion; I am guessing that almost all of those are white English/British too. In other words, it may be that about 68% of the electorate is white English/British or at least European.
https://henryjacksonsociety.org/religiousdiversity/cgi-bin/seatdetail.py?seat=Gorton%20and%20Denton
So assuming that most of the Muslims are going to vote Green, that still leaves nearly 70% of voters who may also vote Green, but are more likely to back Reform, or go elsewhere (or not bother to vote).
My guess at this stage is that rather few English/British (etc) voters will vote Labour. Only a few per cent of that group, probably; maybe 10% or, at outside, 15%.
So if it is true that Labour has lost most of the Muslim/Pakistani votes, and also most of its former English/British voter support (after Labour’s disastrous first 18 months in office), one has to conclude that Labour is very much on the back foot, despite the fact that, at GE 2024, Labour hoovered up over half the votes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorton_and_Denton#Elections_in_the_2020s.
The Conservative and LibDem candidates have no chance in this constituency. A few minor parties are standing, including George Galloway’s Workers’ Party. One can never entirely write off Galloway, but if he stands (or another, on his behalf), that will hit the Green and Labour votes, but not (at all) that of Reform UK.
In the circumstances, it seems to me that Matt Goodwin and Reform have every chance, but it might yet be closer than many think between Reform and the Greens.
Tweets seen
[“Bus Driver Loses Unfair Dismissal Case After Stopping Thief
Last updated 11 minutes ago
On June 25, 2024, 62-year-old driver Mark Hehir pursued the thief on foot from his route 206 bus in north-west London, leaving the vehicle unattended briefly. When the man returned and swung first, Hehir punched back once, an action police called proportionate, but Metroline fired him for breaching safety protocols on assault, vehicle safety, and company reputation. An employment tribunal upheld the dismissal as fair last week, even as MPs and a petition with over 9,000 signatures demand his reinstatement amid public outrage.
This story is a summary of posts on X and may evolve over time. Grok can make mistakes, verify its outputs.“]
https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-mark-hehir-the-hero-bus-driver
The UK is in serious trouble.
Whereas a wall, a squad, and an end would have taken care of the matter for the cost of about 20 rounds of 7.62, plus a Guinness and a bag of chips for each member of the squad.
“Iranian” method would be even cheaper.
Brilliant.
Ian Robert Millard 