Tag Archives: exit poll

Diary Blog, 4 July 2024

Afternoon music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piano_Concerto_(Bliss)#Dedication_and_American_links]
[Golden Gate Bridge, California]

Tweets seen

He has got to be better than the smug retired actor who is the Conservative Party candidate.

Whether it happens this summer or next, sooner or later the Russian “Stavka” will order a general advance across Eastern Ukraine. Russia cannot lose this war and will not lose it.

The Labour Party 1997-2010 created the system that resulted in this, the Conservative Party 2010-2015 made such events more common, and the Liberal Democrats enabled the Conservative Party from 2010-2015.

All System parties.

Vote Reform UK or elsehow today.

More music

Late tweets seen

If so, rather disappointing for me. I wanted the Conservative Party to be all but wiped out, primarily. 130 MPs will mean that it can still present itself as a potentially viable party of government, as it did after 1997. Very disappointing and irritating.

That means that the “2-3 main parties” scam rolls on, at least until 2029.

For social nationalism, there is no “Parliamentary road”…

Assuming that the exit poll is accurate, this is the triumph of the unmeritorious. Unmerited “elected” dictatorship for Labour. Unmerited success for the LibDems, getting 61 seats off little more than Ed Davey clowning and falling off sailboards etc. The “dustbin” party… Also, the unmerited survival of the Conservative Party, even if only as a rump party of ~131 MPs, but still enough to be the official Opposition.

The SNP, reduced to ~10 MPs at Westminster, is pretty much a dead duck as a party of Scottish government in the future, as is, now, any faux-“Independence” for Scotland.

As for Reform UK, I think that ~13 MPs constitute as good a result as they realistically could have expected. For the past 9 years, the LibDems have had fewer MPs: 8 in 2015, 12 in 2017, and 11 in 2019, yet look at them now— 61 MPs predicted. Reform UK could be there, or beyond there, in 2029. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_(UK)#General_elections.

Late music

Diary Blog, 22 December 2019

The madness of the “politically-correct” continues…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7817647/The-University-York-forced-apologise-saying-negro-lecture-civil-rights-heros-book.html

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Corbyn

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7818831/Jeremy-Corbyn-tweets-happy-Hanukhah-message-sparking-fierce-response-Jewish-editor.html

Corbyn is still trying to say to the Jews, “hey, man! Respectttt!”. What an idiot. “They” will hate you whatever you say. Anyway, why wish them “Happy Hanukah”?

Many misguided Christians think that the Jewish religious festival of “Hanukah” is somehow analogous to Christmas, the profound Christian religious festival of birth and peace. Wrong. “Hanukah” is, like most other Jewish religious festivals, an ethno-nationalist celebration of resistance and victory (of Jewish triumphalism if you like), in this case the rebellion of the Jews against their Greco-Syrian overlords in the 2nd Century B.C. (or “B.C.E.”):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanukkah

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanukkah#Story

What was the Jewish response to Corbyn’s olive branch? “Jeremy Corbyn‘s annual ‘happy Hannukkah’ message to Jews in Britain and around the world has prompted a furious reaction from, amongst others, the editor of a Jewish newspaper, who told the Labour leader: ‘go f*** yourself!’“… [Daily Mail]

Need one say more? Corbyn has seen and experienced the way in which the Jewish lobby has conspired against him and the Labour Party for over four years. Why give them the satisfaction of throwing a peaceful greeting back in your face? Just cold-shoulder them.

As with the Diane Abbott situation, Corbyn seems incapable of learning from experience…

Meanwhile, Labour leadership contender Rebecca Long-Bailey is attacked by the Daily Mail (which seems to be afraid of her…):

  • “Labour frontrunner Rebecca Long-Bailey has said her political outlook was shaped by watching her father worry about losing his job at Salford Docks
  • But the Shadow Business Secretary, born in September 1979, would only have been two when the docks closed in 1982.” [Daily Mail]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7818065/Momentum-founder-advising-Labour-leadership-hopeful-Rebecca-Long-Bailey.html

Well, if Jews can be terribly upset about the death or disappearance of remote relatives that they never even met, and indeed who died or disappeared long before they, the descendants, were even born, why should Rebecca Long-Bailey not…? (well, you get the idea…).

Priti Patel “to be given power over sentencing” [Daily Mail].

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7818217/Home-Secretary-Priti-Patel-set-handed-control-sentencing-powers.html

Just when I thought that the news in Britain could not get madder…

BekVduHIIAAj-ug

Labour Friends of Israel member Rachel Reeves MP wants to launch a purge in the Labour Party:

https://politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/108741/excl-rachel-reeves-urges-labour-expel-member-over

Was the recent General Election fixed?

That is a good point. I can only think that most postal votes are held by older people, most older people vote Conservative these days, so…Maybe.

https://twitter.com/MargrainLynda/status/1208426751635968001?s=20

Looks like there is something rotten in the state of Boris…

Blyth Valley

I am reading “mainstream” analyses saying, as my blog did in the days since the General Election, that the Conservatives only have those Northern and Midland seats “on loan”, though I do not use that term. I said that the Cons have “shallow roots” there.

The msm are still trying to say that huge numbers of voters turned to the Conservatives; but we know that the Conservative vote increased by a mere 1.2% nationally over 2017. The real story was and is the collapse of trust in Labour and support for Labour. It is probably true that the Con vote increased in those Northern and Midland areas by more than the national average, and did not increase, or it fell, in some other areas.

In the most striking result, perhaps, Blyth Valley went Con after 69 years (the seat was established in 1950 and won by Lab, by Alfred Robens who later, as Lord Robens, was chief of the National Coal Board).

The 2019 Con vote, however, only increased by 5.8% over 2017. The real story is earlier: the Con vote increased from 13.3% in 1997 to 15.9% in 2001, was 13.9% in 2005, and 16.6% in 2010; not much difference. However, the 21.7% the Cons got in 2015 jumped to 36.9% in 2017, then 42.7% in 2019.

What happened? What happened was that national sentiment increased and “proletarian” old-style “socialist” sentiment took second place to that.

Only once in the 69 years did the Conservatives come 2nd where there was a third candidate at Blyth Valley, and that was in 1960 when an Independent stood. The Conservative Party has otherwise always come 3rd or 4th.

In 2010, there was an identifiable “national” vote at Blyth Valley: BNP 4.4%, UKIP 4.3%, English Democrats 0.8%. So 9.5% in toto (Conservatives 13.3%, LibDems 27.2%, Lab 44.5%).

In 2015, only UKIP represented a kind of “national” vote, and received 22.3%, beating the Conservatives (21.7%). Lab won with 46.3%. You can see that Labour only beat the combined UKIP/Con vote by a couple of points.

In 2017, no UKIP or other “national” party, and Labour’s vote surged to 55.9%, easily beating the Conservatives’ 36.9%, but in 2019, Brexit Party stood, getting 8.3%, and the Labour vote collapsed to 40.9%, allowing the Conservatives to win on 42.7%.

For me, the dynamics are clear. The Brexit vote only went partly to Brexit Party (which also was probably perceived as not fully “national”. The Conservatives benefited, though —as said above— by only 5-6 points over 2017. Turnout was 3 points down from 2017. The Brexit Party votes were probably from former Labour voters. Labour only lost to the Cons at Blyth Valley by 1.8 points. Those 8.3% Brexit Party votes were crucial. Had Brexit Party not been there, the vote would have been closer by far; Lab might have won.

The old “proletarian” certainties have disappeared at Blyth Valley, along with the coal mines. Only traces remain. That has cut the ties binding the voters to Labour.

Leaving the Brexit issue aside, as presumably will be the case next time, it can be seen that Blyth Valley will either revert to Labour or may go to a new party, so long as it is both “national” and “social”…

That may be the case in most of the new “Conservative” seats.

NHS

What was that that Boris-idiot was saying about “no plans to sell off NHS”?

Dan Hodges, faux-proletarian, who lives in his mother’s house in Blackheath (she being the once-famous actress, Glenda Jackson), describes Corbyn supporters as “parasites”…So speaks the scribbler who scribbles for the Mail on Sunday (formerly for the Sunday Telegraph) and of whom Wikipedia says: “Hodges is the son of the actress and former Labour MP Glenda Jackson and her then husband Roy Hodges.[4] He worked as a parliamentary researcher for his mother between 1992 and 1997, describing it as ‘straight-forward nepotism’.” “His former colleague Mehdi Hasan described his…role with The Daily Telegraph as one where he “now performs the role of the right’s useful idiot”. “In 2014, Hodges co-founded the Migration Matters Trust, a pro-immigration pressure group chaired by Barbara Roche, Lord Dholakia and Nadhim Zahawi and run by Atul Hatwal.”

I know which group of (((parasites))) I should prefer to see driven out of Labour!

Boris Johnson “not in charge of his own government” [The Independent]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ken-clarke-boris-johnson-government-dominic-cummings-election-a9256871.html