I just read a typically unsatisfying yet not completely uninteresting article in the New Statesman [below].
The conclusion of that article is that Boris Johnson will be forced to a general election before very long. Unlike msm talking heads, we have no need to say “whoever is the next Prime Minister”: the system is broken, the 100,000 elderly people actually given a vote love “Boris”, and so we, the other 65 million, are having imposed upon us the least honest, least competent, least loyal, least decent, least worthy, least genuinely British Prime Minister in living memory, perhaps ever.
The crunch is coming, but Boris Johnson has never kept to any “pledge” or promise, whether political or personal, so will not be bound by his “Leave EU by 31 October 2019” one either, in my view.
As I have blogged previously, Boris Johnson likes to be presented as a strong maverick character, whereas in fact he is actually rather weak: weak in logic, weak in general knowledge, weak in resolve, weak in ethical standards, weak politically.
Philip Hammond puts it more diplomatically: ” “He is actually a more complex personality than it sometimes seems,” Hammond said of Johnson in his interview. “He is a mainstream conservative on all topics except Brexit. I very much regret his attitude to Brexit. His own story, which is multicultural, multinational and liberal, speaks for itself.” [The Guardian].
Hammond’s words of course are two-edged and allude to Johnson’s part-Jew, part-Muslim, born-in-USA (and brought up largely in USA and Belgium) background, as well as his loose and indeed louche morality.
I may be overthinking this, because I do not see Boris Johnson as a determined —or indeed any sort of— planner (except in terms of trying to become Prime Minister for the past 20+ years), but I wonder whether Johnson foresaw that the Commons would block fulfilment of his “Brexit on WTO terms by 31 October” so-called “pledge”? After all, it would hardly require clairvoyance. The House of Commons has a large Remain majority.
If Boris Johnson “pledges” to leave on WTO terms on 31 October 2019 and if that is then blocked by the Remain majority in the Commons, Johnson can then sigh loudly in public and say “I did my best, but have been stabbed in the back by all those pro-EU MPs…”, thus absolving him from blame for not “delivering Brexit” (the EU will very likely grant further “extensons” etc…). Johnson can then present himself as the Tribune of the People, fighting the corrupt Remain MPs. A hero to fools…
From Johnson’s point of view, perfect. No need to actually negotiate with people who are more intelligent, more knowledgeable, better prepared than Johnson himself ever is, no need to put in much effort and, finally, also parking tanks on the lawn of Farage and Brexit Party (that less certain, though).
What if it goes wrong for Boris-Idiot and there is a no-confidence vote? I am wondering whether the prospect of this stupid clown as Prime Minister, even leaving aside Brexit, might not be enough to make some Conservative Party MPs abstain in a no-confidence vote. I would not bet against it.
If Labour put forward a no-confidence vote, and if that succeeds, it might not mean an immediate general election. The Conservatives can put forward another, less obviously clownish MP as their prime ministerial choice. If all the Conservatives and all the DUP support that person, then that freezes out Corbyn and Labour for a while.
What if there is a general election? If Brexit Party put up a fairly full slate of candidates in England, and if at least some form of Brexit has not happened by then, there might well be an explosion of rage from the half of the country (more than half) that voted Leave in 2016. That explosion might well not spare the Conservatives who have so badly handled the Brexit negotiations for the past 3 years. After all, that inept performance calls to mind the other stupidities of the past decade.
Scotland seems likely to vote at least 40% SNP in a general election, creating (maintaining) a bloc of about 40-50 Westminster MPs. As for England and Wales, if you take out the blacks and browns (etc), and you take out London (and Gibraltar, which has no votes in Westminster elections), the Leave vote was around 70%. What does this mean?
First of all, Brexit is not the only issue. The socio-economic problems of the country play more to Labour’s advantage. What is letting down Labour electorally now is that it is seen to be largely the party of the blacks and browns, the immigrants and their offspring, as well as public service workers, and those reliant on State benefits. I speak in broad-brush terms of course.
The people who are voting Labour now and might vote Labour in any 2019 general election are concentrated in quite few seats, about 200-250, but some polls are saying that only 40% of 2017 Labour voters will vote Labour if there is a general election this year. Translating that into seats is not easy, but it could mean a substantial reduction from the position now.
The above is however affected by the effect Brexit Party might have on the Conservative vote, bearing in mind that, as with Labour, as high as 60% of 2017 Conservative voters say that they will not be voting Con next time.
If Brexit Party puts up candidates all over England and Wales, and scores at least 15% nationwide, the present 312 Conservative seats will reduce to about 250 and possibly fewer. Most will fall to the LibDems or Labour, but no doubt Brexit Party could win a few too. If Brexit Party can score 20%+ nationwide, then there might be only 150 Conservative MPs left.
We are in minority, possibly coalition, territory. Either
- Labour + SNP or
- Labour + LibDems; or
- Conservative + Brexit Party or
- Conservative + LibDems
One intriguing fact is that Boris Johnson is apparently marginally more popular with Brexit Party members than he is with Conservative Party members.
My guess today (in this volatile climate, one alters perceptions almost daily) is that it is a race between Labour’s vote (especially in the North) collapsing and the Conservative vote collapsing in much of the country, and weakened further by the existence of Brexit Party (even if Brexit Party itself scarcely wins a seat).
I cannot see Boris-Idiot lasting for long as Prime Minister— he is completely unsuited for such a position; but having said that, the country has already gone half-mad…
I had scarcely published the above when, about an hour after that, the Guardian published the report below:
“Brussels to offer Boris Johnson extension”… Quelle surprise…
There is also this now:
Update, 10 April 2021
Nearly two years later from when I wrote the above blog post, we look back at the December 2019 General Election and see that most of the analysis was correct. What made the prediction of Conservative Party electoral collapse misfire was the event few —if any— predicted, meaning that Nigel Farage, snake oil salesman, stabbed his own pay in the back, and withdrawing from active participation the majority of Brexit Party candidates, all of whom had actually paid for their own deposits (and more)!
All or almost all Conservative Party candidates were given a clear run by Brexit Party. Brexit Party candidates in some formerly Labour seats where the Conservative Party was always unlikely to win, were allowed to stand, as in Hartlepool, where the Brexit Party 2-i-c, Richard Tice, came a very close third and, had the party not been killed by its own leader, might have pulled off an historic coup in a seat Labour-held since it was created. Farage’s actions destroyed Brexit Party credibility during the campaign.
The net result was that, with most intended Brexit Party votes going to Conservative candidates, the Con Party achieved a huge 80-seat overall majority. Many Conservative candidates, especially in the North, won by fewer than 2,000 votes. Had Brexit Party put up more than a token fight, the Conservative Party might well not have achieved a majority at all.
As for Nigel Farage, after his treachery in 2019, he had the gall to wind up Brexit Party (literally, since it was set up as a private company) and start yet another party, Reform Party or Reform UK, which he then abandoned when offered a great deal of money in business. An out and out, controlled-opposition, con-man.
24 thoughts on “After a 2019 General Election, What?”
Grieve for one only escaped deselection by the skin of his teeth in May on condition he adhere to the Manifesto (no deal better than a bad deal, etc etc).Then at the start of last month he was told by local party activists “to apply for readoption as their parliamentary candidate”.
Last night (or the one before) he was on Newsnight with the Wicked Witch From The East averring he was agin no-deal Brexit and would apply every sinew in furtherance of the ideal of remaining etc etc.
Now wondering if the Chairman of that deselection committee, one Ng, will be acting in due course on intelligence (presumably) received…
By law we’re out (if not already, pace English Democrats) on Halloween and given the pondscum’s inability to organise anything except chaos in the public space I doubt if they will actually get round to implementing the necessary legal measures in time to avert.
O/T: every look at Thornberry reminds me of Stalin-Djushagvili, perhaps it’s the orientalid eyes and/or Armenoid asymmetry of face and forehead. Either way the politics are the same….?
I am convinced that Emily Thornberry is only a “socialist” because her affluent father abandoned her mother and her and for a while they had to live in a council house. Massive chip on shoulder combined with acquisitiveness. Would any real socialist (national or not) be a serial buy to let parasite? I think not. Her husband, the judge, is half-Jew, as you may know.
On your wider comment, EU is now saying that an extension of Art.50 can be had on request. Thus the game continues…
Emily Thornberry is vile even by the normal standards of today’s Labour Party. I remember back to the day of the by-election in Rochester and Strood a few years ago when she negatively commented upon all the white vans in the area that had Cross of St George flags upon them and some of the houses. I agree with her about how tacky some of the displays of the flag were (especially when you consider the flags had the wrong shade of red on them) but it wasn’t the tackiness of it she was really cross about but the SENTIMENT behind it ie English nationalism and the dreaded (from Labour’s point-of-view and her’s) nativism which is to be severely condemned apart from when British Jews show similar levels of ethnic self-awareness etc!
Yes, all things considered, Emily Thornberry is a classic Champagne Socialist Labourite!
Yes. Agree that. The one sure way to destroy Labour would be for Emily Thornberry to “lead” it, thus annoying the anti-Zionists (who distrust her and see her hobnobbing with the wealthy Jew-Zionists— including her own half-Jew husband), but also the more extreme pro-Zionists (who execrate her for defending, albeit half-heartedly, Corbyn) and, even more so, the once-core white working class (what is left of it).
Actually, what she *implied* about the flag of St. George and the houses with Sky dishes and white van etc was not without truth (from the aesthetic or social-aesthetic point of view), as far as it went, but as you say, she hates the national sentiment buried somewhere behind the white vans, England flags, football-strip-wearing and supermarket beer cans.
In fact, I believe that the object of her derision (the small house etc) reminded her of her unhappy teenage years, living very modestly after having been abandoned by her father. Maybe that is also why she, with her husband, have acquired quite a few buy-to-let properties. Insecurity.
Her strong suit comes out in this recent Guardian profile. She is tough. She has endurance.
ps. she is in hospital today. A cycling accident.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the EU gave us another extension before October 31st. Yes, they are terminally bored to death with this long-running saga (aren’t we all?) and yes they do find Britain and our government very awkward members of the club but on the other hand Britain not leaving means they continue to get large annual payments from us into their coffers and the longer we take to leave the more evidence they can show to other countries who may be tempted to leave to not go down that road thus preserving the EU’s unity AND they don’t even need to engage in continual renegotiation which will bore them just give us continual extensions! From their point of view what is not to like?
We will still be in the EU’s nowhere land between being a proper member and genuinely an ex-member. The EU will still be for us like the Hotel California ie you CAN check-out anytime you want to but you can never actually leave!
That was a party political broadcast from Boris’s Clown Party!
Boris-Idiot is going to take the position which is where the line of least resistance (because Boris is weak) intersects with the line of maximum self-interest (because he cares only for his own public image and also his own money situation).
The MPs, most of them, are not going to accept a basic WTO exit, and may bring down the government if Boris-Idiot tries to do that. However, Boris wants to be seen as the popular hero and Tribune of the People (so long as not conflicting with his personal, political and financial survival), so he will not just cave in on the terms already offered.
My guess is that he will ask for an extension despite his (latest meaningless) “pledge” to leave on or before 31 October. The other alternative is that he will be thrown a lifeline by the EU. something akin to the Theresa May “deal” but tweaked and looking as if more…He will then accept it. Brexit In Name Only.
Looks like some other people are coming around to thinking like us that Boris-Idiot could be the first British PM in history to lose his own seat at a general election: https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/boris-johnson-uxbridge
I would be inclined to agree with this article but for the fact that Labour’s choice of candidate may save Boris. Quite a few Tory voters will not vote for a muslim Labour candidate and if they are disgruntled with the Tories they are more likely to vote Lib Dem/Brexit Party or abstain.
Labour would have more of a chance of unseating him with either a white candidate or the ethnic Chinese candidate they had last time.
However, it is an undeniable fact that Uxbridge and South Ruislip is no longer a safe Tory seat and decisively moved into the realm of the marginal seats as of 2017.
Now, if the Tories had shown any level of IQ they could have had Jeremy Hunt as PM and had no risk of having his Premiership being cut short by Jeremy losing the safe seat of South West Surrey! The Tories, however, are not known for being Britain’s ‘stupid party’ for nothing!
Yes. However, the Uxbridge seat has, as I said in the article, many non-white voters. Even the white voters who will not vote Labour if the candidate is brown still damage Boris-Idiot.
It requires Boris to lose about 5,000 or so votes (on 2017 result) for Labour to win. In 2017, nearly 24,000 voted Con and Boris. I do not think it impossible that Brexit Party could get 5,000+ votes, but will only do so if (as seems likely though) Boris lets down Leave voters. If Boris satisfies the pro-Brexit voters, then he might be safe.
ps: I saw this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49062514 which means that Boris-Idiot is going to have, as I thought, a Cabinet of all the idiots. Liz Truss has done better for herself on her back than any woman in England since Lady Hamilton or the 18thC Duchess of Devonshire!
Ha, ha, a grand total of 2,420,000 results come up when you put just three simple words: Boris Johnson Clown into google’s search engine!
One of the latest news articles that emerge from doing that is this excellent and artfully devastating critique from the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com.com/content/1934b77c-a94e-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04
So, it looks increasingly likely that from Wednesday onwards Britain will have its first official clown in No.10 and the Conservative and Unionist Party – the party of PM’s like Salisbury, Baldwin and Chamberlain – will need to be renamed as The Clown Party.
Regret your link contaminated. I found it myself though: https://www.ft.com/content/1934b77c-a94e-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04
So even the clowns repel any suggestion that they support Boris-Idiot!
I am actually coming to the idea that, once the clown has shown his true inability, the Conservative Party will be near-finished. There are some people who, for reasons of habit, mindset, or tax, will vote “Conservative” under any and all circumstances. About 15%-20%. The rest of the whole, 80%-85%, is not “Conservative” unless induced or inspired to be. If I were a Conservative Party MP or CCHQ person, I would be very worried right now.
Further to your comment about Boris-Idiot’s future cabinet being made-up from the considerable choice of Tory deadheads like Liz Truss etc, I saw a report which suggested The Clown would appoint Iain Dunce-Smith to be the Chief Whip! If I were Boris, I wouldn’t be confident Iain would do that job properly with the precarious position in the House of Commons the Tories have especially if Labour call for a vote of No Confidence soon. Now, having Dunce-Smith as Chief Whip wouldn’t be a good move at the best of times but in the present time it is surely tempting fate too much!
I should, under other circumstances, imagine that careerism and greasy-pole-ism would induce MPs to accept ministerial preferment under Johnson, but as it is, I should think that many will hold back either because they see the clown as ultra-short-term PM and/or do not want to be contaminated, in that it may be stigmatizing even to accept office under his premiership. However, there are some who will accept especially a Cabinet post just because it is one…and then of course there *is* the extra money (I think an extra £70,000 a year…). Finally, being in even a derided Cabinet does put MPs in the public and msm eye, and that could be a launch pad for “their own” bid to be PM…
I read another report that said our favourite escapee from a Kampala grocery store ie Priti Patel May be appointed Home Secretary! It seems impossible now for this country to have an ethnic Briton as Home Secretary! We have been systematically shut-out of the four great offices of state! 🤬 I suppose the Tories’s thinking is that having her as Home Secretary will at least mean some rich Hindu and Sikh Asian shopkeepers will vote Tory (two of the few ethnic minorities apart from Jews and Chinese who do) and that Javid (their pet Muslim) can’t bring in votes from Muslims (my advice to the Conservatives is that Muslims will NEVER vote en mass for your party) so they may as well get rid of him!
This proposed government of idiots cannot last long. Boris-Idiot as PM, Priti Patel the (very inept at that) Israeli agent as Home Secretary, suited thug Matt “I worked for mummy and daddy and was a tea-boy for a year at the Bank of England” Hancock, or Liz Truss, as Chancellor (?), David Davis as Foreign Secretary (the only good possible appointment, if so, though he was a joke as Brexit negotiator), Esther McVey as DWP Sec; other deadheads too… I must be dreaming, or rather having a nightmare.
A Boris “government” will pave the way for Corbyn-Labour, quite possibly.
I think it is entirely possible a Boris-Idiot ‘government’ could collapse within a few weeks and thus The Oaf will have less time as PM than Tory PM’s George Canning and The Viscount Goderich who lasted just 119 and 130 days respectively and he will hold the new record for the shortest tenure at No.10.
I see that Sir Alan Duncan who is a Foreign Office Minister has just resigned. The Independent is reporting that the Scots are not too thrilled to have this clown as the new PM and he would be on course to lose the 13 seats the Tories gained in 2017 which were vital in enabling the Tories to have any prospect of being in government after the last general election.
Meanwhile, the Tory MP for Dover and Deal has been charged with three counts of sexual assault against two women. Might we see a by-election there?
On the other hand, we are in safe hands with Johnson as PM!. After all, Brexit is easily solved provided we all believe as the US did when it put a man on the moon. Belief similar to that in the US during the 1960’s is all we need according to him!
The “Age of Belief” or should that be “the Age of Delusions”?
This proposed Cabinet looks like a comedy sketch from a few years ago! Nadine Dorries as a Cabinet minister?! Priti Patel? An Israeli agent as ?Foreign Secretary or ?Home Secretary!
Elphicke’s trial might not be until sometime in 2020. Dover seems to be a bellwether seat, at least since 1979: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
This whole situation is an indictment of our political and electoral systems. It is a national embarrassment to have that clown as PM. Jew-Zionist-favouring Iain Dale was on TV yesterday or today saying what a great PM Boris Johnson might be! Ha ha! Johnson should be worried, looking at Dale’s track record! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iain_Dale#Conservative_candidate_and_blogger
Why do you call Matt Hancock a “suited thug”? David Davis seems to be one of the more sensible Tories and I think one reason he didn’t perform well as Brexit Secretary isn’t solely due to incompetence on his part but also because Toxic Teresa kept him on her very short leash.
I don’t know whether he would make a good Foreign Secretary though he would do better than The Clown 🤡 (pretty much anyone would!). Davis is a bit of a libertarian nutter and that is one reason he opposes ID cards. I can understand why people are wary of this idea considering just how needlessly authoritarian British governments are ie their addiction to PC lunacy and efforts to control the native people’s thoughts etc but I think unless we do have a national ID card scheme we will never to be able to control our borders properly and combat illegal immigration.
Re. Hancock: I have a good instinct, though his public face has mellowed since 2010.
Re. Davis Davis: I predicted (in a restricted-circulation document published in 2008) that David Davis (whose career as MP seemed at the time washed-up) might well return to government as minister, or even Prime Minister. The latter now seems all but impossible, but the former was proven correct in the end. It may not have been his fault that he failed to perform as Brexit Secretary, but “there are many reasons for failure but never an excuse.” I like his regard for civil rights, but am unsure about whether he really has a grip on where the UK is going and how to stop it.
ID cards? Surely if the face is not white, an ID card is unnecessary? If the face is white, then that is more difficult, but I do not see cards as the answer to illegal immigration (in any case, the big problem is *legal* immigration by families, “refugees” etc.
BTW, re. the idea that the countryside should be (further) trashed in order to create rabbit-hutches for more blacks, browns, Chinese and white chavscum, that alone should kill the Conservative Party vote outside the cities.
Yes, one reason why places like my own constituency of Brentwood and Ongar are so Tory is because we expect both local and national Conservatives to protect the Green Belt. Brentwood is a nice place to live and we want to keep it that way so woe betide any Tory who seriously wants to erode the Green Belt for any reason least of all to provide housing for new waves of totally unnecessary immigrants from crime ridden Third World cesspits or for white chavscum from countries like Poland or indeed our own.
Simply put, Brentwood residents do not want that Third World lawless stab city called London to spread further outwards and infect the likes of us!
Understood (by me, but not by the “Conservative” MPs who are in some cases in the pockets of the big jerry-builders who would benefit most by a “build on the Green Belt” policy).
I would say we have a big problem with both totally excessive EU AND NON-EU immigration AND illegal migration to Britain. After all, there are supposed to be, according to some reports, about a MILLION or more illegals in this country! I don’t think ID cards would be a magic wand but I do think they could help a willing government (if only we had one!) to start to get a grip on the illegal migrant situation. If civil liberties have to be curtailed in this regard a bit then so be it. I am in favour of civil liberties more generally-speaking.
As for refugees, we should help them ONLY IF Britain is the nearest safe country which in the vast majority of circumstances it won’t be otherwise we should close off what has become just another route for god knows how many immigrants to come here.
The problem with refugee migration is that our governments have abused what is supposed to be a TEMPORARY method of allowing people with GENUINE fears to have a place of safety BEFORE RETURNING to their own countries.
Why do we Jewish refugees from Nazi Germany still here? Germany isn’t a Nazi country any longer so it is safe for them to go back there!
Send (even more) Jews to Germany?! Be at least a little kind on the poor Germans!
In fact, I suppose that it could be argued that the Bundesrepublik is not the same state as the pre-1945 German Reich. Grey area as to what was inherited by the BRD.
More seriously, I did study, as a belated law student, “asylum”, which was originally called “political asylum” (pre-WW2, pre-Declaration of Human Rights etc). In fact, one of the earliest English legal cases about it (19thC) involved someone from Switzerland, oddly enough (can’t recall the details; maybe he shot the President or something). In fact, asylum generally involved individuals, not millions, though there were influxes of refugees allowed in ex gratia, as with the Jews fleeing the Russian Empire, who were belatedly (and insufficiently) stopped by the Aliens Act 1905: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_England#1880s_to_1920
Numbers are the problem, really.If there were, say, 50 or 100 a year coming to the UK, even I would probably not cut up rough about it. 50,000, 500,000…another matter entirely. An existential racial and cultural crisis.