Why did 2017 Labour voters not vote Labour in 2019?
Presumably, “anti-Semitism” counts as “extremism” in the minds of YouGov (God knows why; to me it just seems to be a commonsense attitude of self-defence!). “Extremism”…only 3% thought that that was a reason not to vote Labour.
What does “leadership” mean in this context? Corbyn only (demonized by the msm for over 4 years)? Diane Abbott?
Half or just over half the voters have heard of the names of three of the Labour leadership contenders, the remaining six contenders (more may enter the lists later) being unknown to the majority of voters. Even uncultured loudmouth Jess Phillips is only known by name to 42% of the electorate. She will be mortified.
As to who voters would like as Labour leader, Keir Starmer leads the pack, but only on 9%, just ahead of Jess Phillips on 8%…
Next General Election?
The trend is towards greater volatility. The new Conservative Party MPs from the North and Midlands may disappear if either radical Labour or a new party can capture the voters’ newly-fickle allegiance.
Many of the new Conservative seats are held with small majorities. Not all. The main point anyway is not the size of the majority or the swing, but the volatility. Labour had held some of those seats since they were established, in some cases a century ago.
What has happened is that the deep-seated loyalty of many former industrial areas to Labour has been eroding for a number of years (for 30 years, arguably). That allegiance has not been replaced by a similar loyalty to the Conservative Party. It has been replaced by an angry volatility.
The allegiance of the long-held Conservative areas in the South of England and elsewhere (East Anglia etc) is of a different nature, based largely around self-interest, though habit also plays a part. Low taxes (income taxes, inheritance tax, taxes on capital gains, council tax etc), and a lazy reluctance to spend much (or any) time on ideology.
In the Northern and some other formerly industrial areas, it was different. Heavy industry, socialism or at least social-democracy, areas with a high level of community on the basis of class solidarity. That whole ambience has been eroding for decades and that erosion has now affected the political sphere in a noticeable way.
That Labour ambience has not been replaced by a Conservative equivalent, just as the heavy industry of the past has not been replaced by anything solid or secure. There is, in short, a vacuum. The Conservatives rushed into that vacuum because they were, indeed are, the only game in town beyond Labour. The other two possibilities, Liberal Democrat and Brexit Party were perceived as small (and so possible wasted votes), but also as adjuncts of the Conservatives.
The LibDems were mortally wounded by having not only concluded alliance with the Conservatives in 2010, but also by the way in which the LibDems behaved during the years 2010-2015, the years of the Con Coalition. There was a certain “f***-you” arrogance about the LibDem ministers of those years, horrible little blots such as Danny Alexander and, of course, Nick Clegg himself. At times, they seemed to be worse than even the Conservatives.
Jo Swinson voted for all of the terrible measures the Conservative Party brought in, from bedroom tax to the hounding of the sick and disabled. Well, the bitch has learned now that the voters were not asleep after all. And all Swinson’s weaselling about that, and all her doormatting for the Jews, could not save her (she lost her own seat) or her party. In fact, Boris-idiot’s then elevation of Jo Swinson to instant “baroness” may just have finally attached to the LibDems the chains that will sink them and send that party to the bottom. The voters are disgusted by Jo Swinson.
As for Brexit Party, its standing down of candidates in seats held by the Conservatives showed to voters in Labour-held seats that Brexit Party was/is a pro-Conservative fake party controlled by a devious con-man.
The result? Not a Conservative triumph so much as a Labour rout, but the result is similar.
A new party could capture a huge number of votes in the right circumstances, now that vast areas of the country are politically-volatile. Not only those voters who voted, but also the third of voters so disengaged that they did not vote, despite being registered to vote.
Amusing tweets seen re. Boris-idiot:
I have for some years made the point that Boris-idiot has managed to fool many people (including many who should have known better) that he is some kind of great brain, based on his ability to speak a few lines of rote-learned Latin or Greek, together with a few long and never-seen words trawled from the Oxford English Dictionary.
Those “talents” do not in themselves show great intelligence. I myself can still recall and speak a few chunks of A Month in the Country [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Month_in_the_Country_(play)] in the original Russian, learned in the early 1980s along with The Cherry Orchard and other works from the (mostly) 19thC Russian canon. In fact, I would put myself up against Boris-idiot in any activity or sphere (except rugby and degeneracy) with the full expectation of defeating him.