Morning music
Battles past
From the newspapers
“Israel has denied it was responsible for the blast at a hospital in Gaza that the Hamas claims killed at least 500 people and has more trapped under rubble
Video from the hospital showed fire engulfing the building and the hospital’s grounds strewn with bodies, many of them young children. Hundreds of people were reportedly seeking shelter at the hospital at the time of the blast, which Hamas has called a ‘horrific massacre’ and a ‘crime of genocide‘.”
More Israeli/Jewish lies.
More about the Israeli attack on a hospital. Worth reading not least because Jew-Zionists in the UK, USA etc are still claiming that the Palestinian side was responsible via a “failed rocket” of some sort.
Name. Shame. Punish.
Tweets seen
…because the “American mainstream media” is almost all owned and/or controlled and/or heavily influenced by Jews and/or Jewish interests.
Typical Jewish/Israeli hypocrisy. “It’s heartbreaking that we are forced to destroy hospitals full of suffering people“…
No accident. Deliberate targeting of a hospital. A war crime by any standard.
“The simulacrum of the human“…
Israel itself was built on lies:
- Most Israelis are not descended from ancient “Israelites” but from Khazars:
- Much of the WW2 “holocaust” narrative, used to give legitimacy to the migration-invasion of Palestine by Jews in the mid/late 1940s, is not true, notably the “gas chambers” fable;
- The migration-invasion of Palestine by Jews in the mid/late 1940s was neither necessary nor justified. Jews massacred large numbers of Palestinian Arabs, and buried the bodies in mass graves, afterwards stealing the land, houses, apartments etc of the murdered victims.
The “holocaust” narrative is still, 80 years on, being used as cover for the continuing Israeli/Jewish military and other crimes.
Regev— an Israeli/Jew liar. Never believe anything “they” say.
Speaking of which:
Jew-Zionist loony and troublemaker pretends to fear “a worldwide pogrom“. I suppose that I should not comment.
Same loony seems to think that the inhuman destruction of the hospital in Gaza should not be noted or criticized because it is a so-called “blood libel” (the mediaeval belief that some Jews killed and/or ate European children).
In any case, even if we leave aside the hospital attack and the 500+ killed there, look at what the Israeli Jews are doing generally in Gaza. Massive destruction. Massive attacks on areas full of civilians, about half of which are children, and a quarter of which are young children under 11 or 12 years of age. Also, the cutting off of water supplies, food supplies, gas, electricity, medical supplies etc.
Meanwhile, in the UK, several people individually (including me) are being prosecuted under a law (Communications Act 2003, s.127) which is so open to abuse (mainly from Jewish/Zionist cabals) that the Law Commission has officially recommended its repeal.
I should add, belatedly, that my alleged sins are said to date from 2020 and 2021— nothing to do with the present Israel/Palestine situation.
Of course, both China and Russia are hardly known for human rights, but then look at the USA: Abu Ghraib, Bagram, Guantanamo Bay, the bombing of civilians (admittedly nowhere near the Israeli level. Israel is beyond the pale).
More from the newspapers
“A Tory candidate standing in the forthcoming by-election once suggested that families using food banks should ‘f*** off’ if they could afford TVs and phones.
Andrew Cooper is standing for the Conservatives in Tamworth, Staffordshire, as voters go to the polls tomorrow after previous MP Chris Pincher was forced to quit after a sleaze scandal.
In an insensitive Facebook post in October 2020, Mr Cooper appeared to question whether people needed to use food banks.“
“...Mr Cooper told the BBC that there needed to be better incentives to get people into work.”
[Incentives? Higher pay?]
[Daily Mail]
The candidate also cannot spell, it seems (“YOR” for “YOUR“).
Sounds like a fairly moronic individual. Director of an engineering company called GEFCO, formerly owned by Russian interests.
I saw a photo of Andrew Cooper in a local newspaper: https://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/read-this/tamworth-by-election-2023-tory-candidate-andrew-cooper-parents-4375867.
In that report, the photo shows him wearing a blue suit with two military medals (in the Russian fashion, too, i.e. the actual medals, not just the ribbons).
The medals appear to be (the photo is not very clear) the equivalent of “campaign” medals, one for Iraq and one for service of at least 30 days with the NATO force in Kosovo. I am not very well-informed about medals, so I may not be quite right about that.
I blogged briefly recently about tomorrow’s two by-elections: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2023/10/08/diary-blog-8-october-2023-including-a-look-at-the-upcoming-tamworth-and-mid-bedfordshire-by-elections/.
I find the Tamworth by-election hard to call. I think that it must be between Con and Lab. I think that it may be close, but Labour has a pretty good chance here.
What interests me is the question “if both by-elections are lost, will Sunak resign, or at least face calls to resign?”
More tweets
Well, who knows? With a day to go, there seems all to play for, not only for Lab and Con, but for the LibDems too.
At a guess, I too would have looked (pre-2020) at the Cons as the most likely choice by far (Nadine Dorries scored almost 60% in 2019), but people even in very “Conservative” areas are now mightily angry (mixed with apathy in view of the convergence of most Con/Lab policy). Not sure whether those former Con voters will vote Lab, though. I am inclined to think abstention or voting LibDem might be more popular.
The betting markets are often wrong on by-elections. Still, at present the betting exchanges have the Cons odds-on, Labour around 3/1 and LibDems around 5/1.
Sounds plausible, but that LibDem bet at 5/1 could be value.
It would be superb, though unexpected at present, to see that horrible bitch accredited to the UK also expelled (or whatever).
I suppose that Murray is referring to having been arrested on the basis of yet another malicious and lying complaint by the evil bastards of the “Campaign Against Antisemitism”, the same ones who are behind my politically-motivated trial late next month.
Looks like the pathetic Indian money-juggler and doormat for Israel is on the way out.
More about Tamworth
Further research into the Conservative Party candidate seems to confirm my earlier comments about his medals (Iraq and Kosovo): he enlisted in the Staffordshire Regiment, and served for 6 years. His final rank was Lance Corporal: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-cooper-38367816a/?originalSubdomain=uk, and it seems that his specialism was as a sniper.
Cooper himself self-describes as “Progressing from Sniper to Lance Corporal in the Staffordshire Regiment of the British Army. Completing tours such as Iraq, Kenya, Kosovo and Bosnia performing duties including surveillance, target acquisition and official duties in France for Queen Elizabeth II“; and
“Experienced, effective and diligent Railway Engineer with a strong track record in the sector following on from a distinguished military career. I specialise in railway maintenance and asset management but also have significant experience of railway engineering projects.”
Cooper having been a railway engineer for 17 years, I should think that he does a lot more good in that field than he might as an MP.
Well, there it is. We shall know the result late tomorrow, or early on Friday.
I think that Labour will win at Tamworth; not so sure about who will win in Mid-Beds. The bookmakers prefer Labour at Tamworth, and the Cons in Mid-Bedfordshire.
More tweets
“FAZ: Russia is using the situation in Israel to discredit the United States and distract attention from Ukraine.
After the Hamas attack, the Russian President, on the one hand, spoke out for Israel’s right to defend itself, on the other hand, he condemned the blockade of Gaza, comparing it to Leningrad, and confirmed his commitment to the two-state principle.
Despite the fact that Russia has good contacts in the region and called for de-escalation of the conflict, Western countries in the UN Security Council rejected Moscow’s proposal. Frankfurter Allgemeine explains this by saying that Russia has intentions to use the new conflict to its advantage. The newspaper points out that the Russian president calls the situation in Israel “a striking example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East” and accuses Washington of not taking the “fundamental interests of the Palestinian people” into account.
In addition, according to the German newspaper, the Kremlin is using the conflict to divert attention from Ukraine. “The prospect that Israel will now receive Western weapons and ammunition that Kyiv might otherwise receive is emboldening the power apparatus and the media” in Russia.
Moscow also benefits from rising oil prices, which fill government finances.“
“America has been condoning Israeli war crimes for years, recalls Scott Ritter It is not unusual that the Israeli military bombed a hospital in Gaza, killing 500 people.
Such tactics are consistent with the IDF’s “Mowing the Grass” doctrine, which involves disproportionate violence against not only militants, but also civilians, including children, US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter said in an interview with the Judging Freedom YouTube channel.
At the same time, he said, Washington is in no hurry to introduce an embargo, stop or at least criticize Tel Aviv, whose army is actually committing war crimes with the help of American weapons. Moreover, the United States has been turning a blind eye to this fact for many years. “We know what Israel is doing. We support what Israel is doing, so any talk in the US about compassion for the Palestinian population is one hundred percent false. We have never sympathized with the Palestinians. We have always supported Israel’s perspective and strategic goals, even if they include the “Cut the Grass” policy,” Ritter emphasized.”
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 
Hello, I hope you can see this and post it. There are many AI-generated images mimicking 19th-century paintings; most of which are of Russian origin. Look at this gorgeous young woman, it seems painted by Bouguereau or Winterhalter
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Claudius:
Thank you, though that is usually not my kind of art. Sometimes.
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What a hateful person that Tory MP Andrew Cooper is! He reminds me of the sadistic English MPs who gloated over the Irish famine saying that it was a wonderful thing. Monsters like that are also usually [REDACTED]
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He is only a candidate not an MP at the moment and by the weekend might well still be just a candidate ! When did they gloat? At the time of the famine or more recently?
The Irish Famine was regrettable but contrary to Irish nationalist propaganda it wasn’t a deliberate planned ‘genocide’ but due to British government incompetence and their absurd faith in market forces as a wonderful thing with no possible downsides.
Yes, the British government had an addiction to ‘market forces’ long before the ‘blessed Margaret’ ever appeared on the scene!
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Something funny among so many horrible things. The man who posted this video is a wonderful person who has adopted and rescued well over a dozen cats. He has built a real home for them within his property. I have been following his YT channel for over three years.
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Claudius:
Thank you. What an aggressive little creature.
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Yes! My wife would call him “a horrible little toad” (LOL) How many funny expressions the English language has!
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If the CONServative Party contains many people like Alison Pearson and I suspect it does then, frankly, they have no one to blame but themselves for their extreme levels of unpopularity.
She is a moron for the most part from what I have read of her articles on various topics. She was wrong on Covid and like many of those people she has little sensible to say about global warming or new technology like electric cars which ARE the future whether idiotic people like her want to acknowledge it or would prefer to act like King Canute and try and stop or hold back technological progress.
Yes, there are some environmental issues with electric cars and the batteries being used for them but many billions of pounds are being spent to lessen them eg Toyota will soon be selling solid state battery cars which are safer and these can be used for renewable energy storage as well.
The Conservative Party used to be a serious political party at one time and the Daily Telegraph was a serious broadsheet Tory-supporting newspaper then along came libertarian crackpots ie the UKIP and Farage lot and now look at the Telegraph and the Tory Party!
Mrs Thatcher would have had no truck with climate change denialists and their fellow travellers and you can see some decent speeches by her on climate change on Youtube.
But then Maggie had done a real job before becoming an MP or leader of her party and PM now the Tories elect clowns like Boris or people like Sunak who has only shuffled some money around on a computer screen at Goldman Sachs.
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Before I would have said that for once the Tories had chosen a decent by-election candidate for a change but now after reading what he has said that Tory candidate for Tamworth sounds like a right insensitive arsehole.
I think he might well have ‘put his foot in it’ and lose the seat for his party. I did think the Tories could well hold Tamworth as I wrote on your earlier piece. My reasoning was that it is very much a two party contest between the Tories and Labour in a seat where they had 90% of the vote share between them last time and where the Lib Dem vote is so small there is virtually no opportunity for that vote to tactically assist Labour in winning the seat as happened in Selby and Ainsty etc. The Conservative Party also won the seat in 2019 with a very high 66% share of the vote which is one of their very highest shares in the entire country. As far as I am aware no party has successfully won a by-election in England where the incumbent defending party has such a huge share of the vote. Tamworth looks to be a ‘white flight’ area from Birmingham which might explain why the seat has trended towards the Tories over the last few general elections along with a very big vote for Brexit in 2016.
I still think the Tories might just about hang on due to these factors but who knows? I suspect if Labour or Tories win it it will be by under a thousand votes or even less.
If the Tories do lose it then that would be a very potent demonstration of their unpopularity and a bad omen for the general election. They need a sea change in thir fortunes quickly as time is now rapidly running out.
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John:
my sense, rightly or wrongly, is that Sunak has run out of road.
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It is very difficult to predict what might happen in Mid Bedfordshire. From looking at its local and general election results on Wikipedia and information on its demographic profile elsewhere it does seem more similar to North Shropshire than to Selby and Ainsty.
Unlike the latter seat, Mid Bedfordshire has NEVER had a Labour MP and if you look at the current make-up of the seat which dates from 1997 you will see that even in Bliar’s landslide the Labour Party was still 7,000 votes adrift from winning it whereas the neighbouring seat of South West Bedfordshire was very nearly lost by the Tories ie they only retained it by 130 odd votes.
Mid Bedfordshire is clearly the most Tory inclined seat in Bedfordshire with North East Bedfordshire secondary to it in that respect.
One thing that is strange about the seat is that the only real opposition locally to the Tories comes from Independent councillors. I think the Liberal Democrats have just one councillor in the Bedford Council part of the constituency, Labour have none, the Greens a solitary councillor who was elected this year in the rather posh town of Ampthill whilst the rest are Tories/Independents.
According to Electoral Calculus the seat is wealthier than the national average which would favour the Liberal Democrats rather than Labour and other sources say it has a large number of graduates and this is also above the national average and that would favour the Liberal Democrats as well.
It isn’t a completely hopeless seat for Labour in a by-election as quite a few seats in Southern England still tend to be like my own in Brentwood and Ongar but, on the other hand, its electoral history and demographic profile suggest it isn’t massively favourable to them either.
I still tend to think the demographics of the seat are better for the Liberal Democrats than Labour.
I can’t predict the result with any degree of confidence apart from believing that whoever wins won’t be winning it by much. I suspect we will see a close three way split with a winning vote share of 35% or below which would be one of the lowest winning shares in history and a numerical majority of 1,000 votes or less.
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John:
Yes, I think that Mid-Bedfordshire will be close. LibDems only scored 12.6% in 2019. Labour received 21.7%. (Con 59.8%).
If it is true (as polls indicate) that only 30%-32% will vote Con today (Thursday), where will the other c.30% former Con vote go? I suspect much of it will abstain. If that means that say half of the 2019 Con voters, about 15% or 20% of the 2019 voters, are going to vote and vote elsewhere today, then even if they all vote LibDem, that might only take the LibDem vote to where the Con vote is, around 32%. Whereas, were all those voters to vote Labour, that would put Lab on about 42% and a winning number.
It is a by-election, and people know that in a year or before a year, a General Election will be held, so I am assuming that the Con vote this time will be very low, maybe only 20%, rather than the 32% the polls have been suggesting. Hard to say where the chips will fall, but the LibDems must have at least a good chance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
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Yes, the Lib Dems are starting off from a low base. If they are to win they will need to put on a decent amount of vote share ie 17% plus and probably a bit more than that. They have won from third place before ie the Berwick Upon Tweed By-election in 1973 (won by 56 votes!) and more recently in North Shropshire where they started off with an even lower ten percent of the vote.
It can be done with some effort. I think they will need to squeeze the Independent candidate’s vote. According to the two published opinion polls he was getting a decent chunk of the vote but I believe that he won’t get that on the day. Apparently, he is a popular local figure and councillor but unless he is standing on a local platform which only he represents why vote for him in a PARLIAMENTARY by-election?
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I doubt whether the Tory vote will fall to as low as 20%. If it did it would represent a truly calamitous result and the decline would be a bigger drop ie over 39% than even the all time current record holder of a 32% drop of the Tory vote share at the famous Christchurch By-election in 1993.
If that happened then I would expect the Tories to dump Sunak within a week or so. Simply put If he presided over a huge drop and percentage decline of the Conservative Party vote share in what had been a safe Tory stronghold seat of that extraordinary magnitude he would have to go.
I think that even at worst the Tory vote share will still be an absolute minimum of 25% and probably a fraction higher ie 27 or 28%.
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One factor that might help the Tories narrowly retain the seat or enable the Lib Dems to squeeze a win is that the turnout might not fall from the general election as much as it has done in other by-elections.
The general election in 2019 had a 72% turnout which nowdays is a very good one and even excellent for Tory-held seats. Tory constituencies, on average, normally have higher turnouts than Labour seats but quite a few don’t get to the 70% figure let alone above that.
It seems that the electorate in Mid Bedfordshire is pretty engaged compared with other seats.
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