Tag Archives: No deal

The Latest Boris-Brexit Noise— What Happens Now?

For those new to this blog, I shall briefly outline my view: I have always favoured Leave/Brexit, certainly since about 2010. The EU, which was originally the EEC, a group of nation-states in mainly North and West Europe co-operating together and trading freely, has become a monster.

The EU has allowed millions of non-whites from Africa and Asia to invade its shores. It has encouraged that invasion and has attempted to resettle those millions and their offspring in countries and places. The EU permits Roma Gypsy thieves and scavengers free movement from their nests in Eastern Europe to the West. The EU Commission, the body which really directs the EU (the Parliament providing mainly a mere facade of “democracy”), has had its tame lawyers and most of the tamed EU states pass laws against “holocaust” “denial” etc, which echo the laws against heresy and blasphemy promulgated in the late Middle Ages. It is clear that the EU is on a course, planned from the beginning, of centripetal convergence. The aim is a “European” (meaning geographically European) superstate whose controlled and monitored citizens will be largely non-European and/or of mixed race, as provided for under the Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan:

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

At the same time, I am extremely opposed to Boris Johnson and his pack of mainly non-British idiots and schemers posing as a Cabinet. They are just a manifestation of ZOG (Zionist Occupation Government).

The above positions have created a conflict, because Boris Johnson has tried to hijack the Leave/Brexit cause, calculating that, in such a polarized political environment, he and the Conservative Party might count on the support of perhaps 50% of the voters, whereas otherwise, Conservative Party electoral support now only amounts to about 35%, at most.

I blogged previously about the dissonance:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

So now, Boris-Idiot has been railroaded into asking the EU for an extension of time, which he has done, despite his brave words about how he would rather “be dead in a ditch” than make any such request.

I suppose that any other Prime Minister of the UK would have complied with the newly-imposed legal requirement; a few might perhaps have considered refusing to comply. Boris is once again unique in having come up with a schoolboy “plan” to send a photocopied letter to the EU, while not signing it! In what world is that the act of a statesman? It is the act of a naughty schoolboy trying to be clever. Did Boris-Idiot think it up alone, or did his mad adviser, Dominic Cummings (see Notes, below) assist?

In any case, surely it is clear to me that merely failing to sign such a letter in such circumstances does not invalidate the request. To take a similar type of case, if two heads of state or government meet to sign a treaty already agreed in all details, is the treaty ineffective if one such VIP, as a joke, signs in invisible ink, or pretends to sign using a pen without ink? To my mind, the answer must be in the negative. The formal signing is merely the public show. True, in that case, the VIP would have at least mimicked the required act. Having said that, who but a charlatan public entertainer posing as politician and statesman would try such a stunt? I can only think of one, off-hand…

In my opinion, the sending of the letter, albeit in rough photocopied format, albeit unsigned by the person posing as Prime Minister, is still a valid request, a valid request from one EU government to the EU, not from one individual. If the Supreme Court of the UK pronounces upon these questions, no doubt they will first be analyzed in detail.

I predicted from the start, as soon as the 2016 Referendum was held, that the EU ZOG/NWO matrix would work to defeat the intention of a majority of the voters. The idea would be either to remain in the EU or to leave in name only. I see no reason to change that view. The Boris “deal” is no better and indeed arguably worse than that finally achieved by Theresa May. Even “No Deal” would be a scam in the hands of Boris and his ZOG/NWO colleagues. The only difference would be a bias toward the USA and not so much toward the EU part of the NWO/ZOG conspiracy/consensus. The ultimate result would be the same.

What now?

Electorally, this in itself may not harm the Conservative Party. Perhaps even the reverse. The “broad masses” of voters are in any case not only interested in Brexit. What is giving support to the Conservative Party is not anything that that party is doing or not doing, but what Labour is doing or not doing. The weakness of Labour is the main factor. The opinion polls are now all very firmly putting the Conservative Party well ahead of Labour, in some cases by more than 10 points. Unless Labour can pull its socks up pretty soon, it is toast, unless events move on the ground: economic collapse, any chaos via No Deal Brexit etc. Even should that happen, it is not clear that Labour would or could reap any electoral benefit. The Conservatives might, in those circumstances, be damaged, but not enough.

What about Brexit Party? My sense is that it has “lost its mojo”. It might get 15% in any general election held soon, it might get only 10%. Enough to take the gloss off any Conservative win, but not enough to prevent it. One should never completely write off the egregious Farage, but in the end he has had no Westminster success, at least to date.

For me, it is clear that a social-national movement must arise. At present it cannot, because the basic conditions do not exist: no germinal social-national party exists, no revolutionary situation which that party might both exploit and command exists.

Notes

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7592291/Madness-IAN-BIRRELL-finds-one-small-sign-sums-state-divided-nation.html

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalergi_plan

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/les-eminences-grises-of-dystopia/

A few extra thoughts

Twitter is a very unreliable guide to the public mood. If you only took Twitter into consideration, you would imagine that 90% of the population want the UK to remain in the EU (most polls put it at or below 50%).

“Hate”: we hear a lot about “hate” from certain groups, whereas in fact those groups are themselves the chief purveyors of hate:

  • Remain whiners;
  • Jew-Zionists;
  • post-Marxists and pseudo-“socialists”, such as the “HopeNot Hate” and “UAF” crowds.

Not infrequently on Twitter are encountered individuals manifesting all three of the above.

Part of the delusionary tendency of Remain is the idea that people who want out of the EU are poorly-educated, have never travelled (save to somewhere such as Magaluf) and are extremely stupid. I suppose that such ideas bolster the Remain whiners’ sense of self-worth. Sadly for them, their ideas about this are, like their ideas on other subjects, suspect. I myself was once measured at 156 IQ, have a degree from somewhere at least semi-decent, have post-professional qualifications in law (in three countries) etc. I once had a personal library of 2,000+ books, have lived in, worked in or visited dozens of countries, speak a foreign language etc…Should I feel inferior to Remain whiners, most of whom are in every way less intelligent, educated, travelled and experienced than me?

Remain whiners are, in my opinion, often the kind of people who, in the 1950s and thereafter, carefully read books to make sure that how they lived and behaved was certified “U” and not “non-U”. In other words, Remain whinerdom seems to be yet another manifestation of British suburban snobbisme… See, for example, the tweet below

Silly Remain woman comes from Oxfordshire to march (pointlessly) with hundreds of thousands (we are told) of others, contra Brexit. Sees a group of drunks in a pub who claim to be pro-Boris Idiot. That gives her the chance to tweet (the main purpose of the day) about how they are or may be “racist” (which of course would be terrible…). One of the drunks has no teeth. Ha ha! Look at him! What a hillbillie! The woman does not fail to note on her Twitter profile that she worked for the DTI, BBC and Reuters. She forgot to mention that she reads the Observer (well, probably—if she can guess about people, so can I).

As for the “million-strong” march, its effect will be the same as all other large marches in London. Zero.

Also:

Brexit is the Devil, though! I despise Boris Idiot, but smug Remain whiners like that woman from Wallingford have me almost defending him!

Same Remain woman tweeted this:

It is pretty clear that most of the hysterical young Remain whiners of 2016 have grown up a bit, but that the middleaged and elderly Remainers have not quite understood that the times have left them behind. I would be prepared to bet that all those Wallingford Remainers support mass immigration, and fake or other “refugees” as well! After all, those elderly Remainers will not live long enough to see Wallingford (a pleasant Thames-side small town which I knew as a child) turned into yet another urbanized or suburbanized black/brown multikulti hellhole…

Looked at a few more tweets by Sarah Hurst; here’s one just seen (so I was right —see above— give that man a cee-gar!):

Further and minor exegesis

I should add that, while for me it is important to get out of the EU, my main socio-political focus is on the racial and cultural future of the UK and, beyond the UK, Europe (EU and non-EU). There is no point stopping free movement from the EU if the UK is still going to be importing blacks and brown (etc) in huge number. Another point of huge importance (for the UK and beyond) is the necessity for a “cultural revolution” and chistka.

Update, 30 November 2020

The Jewish or half-Jewish anti-Brexit Remainer woman from Wallingford, mentioned in the body of the blog post above, is an enemy of “English nationalism”:

Actually, she is comedy gold, reading some of her tweets. Dual nationality (UK/USA, apparently), and she celebrates Thanksgiving in Wallingford because she spent 12 years in the USA but “cannot afford” to return there (implying that she wishes that she could).

She apparently stockpiles tinned food (buying extra regularly), in which I am with her— it is a good idea if you can afford to do so and have storage space (see also Dennis Wheatley’s memoirs, Drink and Ink, in which he says that he not only did the same in the years 1938-40, in case food was rationed should war break out, but urged the readers of his newspaper column to follow suit).

As to her recent tweets to the effect that Brexit might result in food shortages, the incompetence of Boris-idiot’s government might indeed cause such shortages now. Her tweets are, however, often just unintentionally funny, as when she cries poverty while also spending over £300 at a go in Waitrose.

Oh, and she thinks that Lord Sumption, until fairly recently a Supreme Court justice, is “a dangerous lunatic”!

I have my own idea as to who might be a dangerous lunatic…and I am not alone in that…

That woman reminds me of several things, such as “why are persons of Jewish origin always alien, ‘strangers in a strange land‘ as the Old Testament has it? More than just strangers; hostile strangers.

Also, why are “Remain whiners” also, almost invariably, facemask and “lockdown” zealots?

Incidentally, the woman in question also poses as a expert on Russia. Here is an example of her “expertise”:

If an attempt at humour, not terribly amusing.

More from her? She retweeted this:

Good.

The Choice Is Not “Boris or Remain”: You Can Be For Brexit Yet Also Be Against Boris Johnson And His ZOG Cabinet

Preamble

The UK is in an extraordinary political and Constitutional mess. What is more extraordinary is that the person who should be trying to sort it out, as Prime Minister, is not only not doing so (and is in any case incapable of doing so, being totally unfit for his office), but is actively making the situation worse.

I do not often support the words of pro-Israel drone Douglas Murray,  but he has it at least largely right here [see below]:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436835/MPs-decided-know-better-public-says-political-author-DOUGLAS-MURRAY.html

Boris Johnson etc

I have blogged in the recent past about Boris Johnson and also about his eminence grise, Dominic Cummings:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/les-eminences-grises-of-dystopia/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/01/boris-johnson-a-kind-of-coup-detat-and-the-likely-early-general-election-thoughts/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/boris-angela-and-macron-too/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/06/we-may-be-on-the-brink-of-political-disintegration/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/07/25/the-boris-johnson-cabinet/

I have been saying for years that Boris Johnson is unfit for any office. Finally, after a decade or more, much of the the msm and also the more aware part of the public are catching up with me. I despise pretty much everything about Boris Johnson, who has been puffed for years as “Prime Minister in Waiting” by a dozy, complaisant or conspiring Press, radio and TV.

Boris is an idiot, the very words used to describe him by Israeli Embassy political intelligence officer Shai Masot, caught by Al Jazeera TV conspiring with former Labour MP Joan Ryan. The exact words? “…Boris is busy, you know. You know he is an idiot, but so far he has become the minister of foreign affairs without any kind of responsibilitiesWe like Boris”. Of course (((they))) do! Boris-Idiot will do anything that the Jewish lobby, Israel, or the “tail-wags-dog” USA want.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2017/jan/07/israeli-official-shai-masot-discredit-uk-mps-undercover-video

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-idiot-shai-masot-sir-alan-duncan-filmed-secret-camera-take-down-mps-israel-a7515566.html

What is it about the UK, that an idiot is suddenly thought some kind of minor genius if he went to Eton and Oxford and can recall some of the Latin and Greek he learned at school? What is there in Boris behind the rote-learned classical Greek and the carefully-cultivated, careless “English” “upper class” persona? Which of course is largely a fake, because Boris is part-Jew, part-Circassian Turk, part God-knows-what, born in the USA, brought up partly there and also in Belgium.

Behind all the playacting, behind the Eton and Oxford, behind the pathetic am-dram reprise of Winston Churchill, what is in the middle of the onion? Anything? Nothing?

Boris Johnson, as I have repeatedly said (and with increasing frustration as he has been repeatedly promoted to the level of his incompetence— the Peter Principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle), Boris is unfit to be in public life at all. In fact, he has outdone the Peter Principle, in that he has been incompetent in all of the jobs he has ever had (with the arguable exception of the editorship of The Spectator), yet has talked his way, with a fair wind from connections and msm, to become journalist, editor, MP, Mayor of London, MP again, Cabinet minister, and now Prime Minister, despite having been incompetent in all or almost all of those roles.

This government is an entirely illegitimate pro-Israel regime. All of its ministers and most of its MPs are members of Conservative Friends of Israel. Some are part-Jew, some  full, e.g. Grant Shapps, dodgy business type from the Hertfordshire Borshch Belt, who was head of the youth wing of UK “Bnai Brith”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%27nai_B%27rith

This government is undoubtedly the least impressive in living memory. Few of its members, if any, have real or substantial achievement to their name. Some, notably East African Asian Priti Patel, incredibly now again a Cabinet minister after having been sacked by Theresa May, are or were Israeli agents, certainly agents of influence, possibly more.

There is no doubt that the Boris Johnson government is set to increase the repression of free speech where it affects Jews and Zionism. There are probably secret plans to introduce the mediaeval-style laws against “holocaust” “denial” that we see in several other European states. That alone means that Boris-Idiot and his Cabinet and his government have to be removed. Whatever it takes. At present, Boris Idiot would find it hard to introduce such repressive laws (unless with the help of Labour Friends of Israel MPs), tightening even further the repression introduced (mainly) under Tony Blair and also Theresa May. The Commons votes might not be there for that. However, were the —misnamed— Conservatives to win a Commons majority, we should expect all sorts of police-state actions to increase as the “Conservative” ranks would be padded out with unthinking newly-elected lobby-fodder.

That horrible bastard John Mann, who might well soon have been deselected by his local Labour Party anyway, has now accepted a well-paid role as the Government’s “anti-Semitism” “tsar” and will not be standing for re-election :

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7754dd94-d191-11e9-bfe0-b5ac4ce6ca95

Note the following:

Mann, who will be based in the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, claims his sole aim is to make the UK a haven for the Jewish community.” (it already is, and that is a major problem).

In her last act as prime minister, Theresa May appointed Mann, who backed Brexit and this week voted with the government to try to block emergency legislation intended to stop no-deal, as an independent adviser to the government on tackling anti-semitism.”

“Boris Johnson has since upgraded the role, underlining the importance the government attaches to the issue.” [The Times].

There you have it: Theresa May and Boris Johnson (both of part-Jew origins: one of Johnson’s great-grandfathers was an Orthodox Jew rabbi in Lithuania!) head and headed the two most pro-Jew and pro-Zionist governments in British history. Arguably the two worst-ever from other points of view too.

CmmGfz5WgAAWy1mCm3s14vW8AA8yIkCtdcka4WAAApkQ6C7_6DhaW4AA5xQV

What about Brexit?

I have been pro-Brexit for years, well before the 2016 Referendum. Britain must try to get out of the EU “lobster-pot” (easy to enter, almost impossible to exit). I tweeted (until the Jew-Zionists had me barred from Twitter in 2018) and have blogged (since late 2016) about these matters.

Other states have voted not to go further into the lobster-pot. They were forced to “rethink” and “vote again”…Likewise, if states like Portugal and Austria elected any “far right” MPs, the EU cold-shouldered them until the “mistake” was “corrected”. The same squeeze is now being put onto Hungary and Italy. This is a tyranny, though —so far— of the “iron fist in velvet glove” variety.

As soon as the 2016 Referendum was over, I was predicting a long campaign by NWO/ZOG/EU to reverse the Referendum one way or another. Either Remain, or “BRINO” (Brexit In Name Only). I have no idea to what extent the criminal mishandling of the Brexit negotiations was deliberate, but I have my suspicions. Anyway, there it is.

The EEC was supposedly a matter of intra-Europe free trade and a customs union to facilitate that. When the UK joined the EEC and then voted (in a fixed referendum, in which the pro-EEC side had 10x the money to buy publicity etc…) to remain, in the 1970s, the bloc was still mainly beneficial. However, just as Bismarck’s Zollverein paved the way for a German unitary (unified) state in the late 19th Century, so the EEC paved the way for a transformation of the free states of Western and Central Europe into the EC and then, via Maastricht, the EU. The precursor to a one-Europe state.

I might not even object to that, were that EU superstate to be a true federation of equals and not under sinister “New World Order” [“NWO”] control, but that is not the case. NWO and “ZOG” [“Zionist Occupation Government”] work together to impose, over time, a ghastly and repressive tyranny, one that encompasses both Europe and North America and which aspires to control the whole world in time. George Orwell was a prophet. The EU is only part of the way towards the ultimate destination.

BhFozwVCQAAjLNT

We are therefore left with a paradox: I want the UK to get out, fully out, of the EU, but also want an end to the present Boris Johnson “Conservative” government.

There is no place for my views in the present black-and-white msm narrative being put before the public, which narrative has room only for a binary choice:

  • No Deal Brexit + Boris; or
  • Remain/Brexit In Name Only/EU-approved “deal” + No Boris.

I reject that binary choice. It is just a couple of flickering shadows on the wall of the cave.

The best thing would be for the UK to leave the EU, and for the Conservatives to be heavily defeated at a general election.

There is no prospect that Corbyn and his deadheads can run a successful government either, so that might well open the door for a real social-national movement and party (which latter does not exist at present; it must first exist, naturally).

Desperate times, desperate measures. Only when people need real leadership from a social-national party and leader can that party and leader arise from obscurity to their true stature.

https://twitter.com/mark57902240/status/1170424225087283204?s=20

Update, 9 September 2019

I wrote the words below some three months ago, in an earlier blog post about Boris-Idiot. They have worn rather well, if I say so myself. Give that man a cee-gar!

“We keep hearing that “Boris Johnson has the ability to be Prime Minister, but does he have the necessary character?”

My response is “where has Boris Johnson proven that he has the ability?”; on the contrary, he has, if anything, proven that he has not the ability.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1313&v=dXyO_MC9g3k

Update, 28 September 2019

Gove, quite plainly either drunk or (more likely) drugged (again) in the Chamber of the House of Commons! See below

https://twitter.com/Aidan63499469/status/1177372771279605761?s=20

Update, 2 October 2019

“You heard it here first”…

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1179312525709627393?s=20

Update, 8 October 2019

After Brecon and Radnorshire, What Now For Brexit Party and the Conservatives?

My original blog post (with updates to 2 August 2019) about the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/06/21/brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-2019/

The result of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election of 1 August 2019

  • LibDems 13,826 votes (43.5%)
  • Conservatives 12,401 (39%)
  • Brexit Party 3,331 (10.5%)
  • Labour Party 1,680 (5.3%)
  • Monster Raving Loony 334 (1%)
  • UKIP 242 (0.8%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

The LibDems won fairly decisively, but with a smaller majority than the betting might have been suggesting. I have posted several informative links below.

Why did the LibDems win, why did the Conservative Party not win?

For me, the most important aspect beyond the headline result is the fact that the Conservative ex-MP, Christopher Davies, would have won, perhaps even handsomely, were it not for the candidature of Brexit Party, which received 3,331 votes.

The LibDem majority over the Conservatives was only 1,425. In other words, had Brexit Party not been standing, the Conservatives would almost certainly have won, and probably by nearly 2,000 votes. The Brexit Party received a vote-share of only 10.5% (LibDems 43.5%, Conservatives 39%), but that was more than enough to sink the Conservative candidate.

The Labour vote has suffered a general decline in the constituency over the years (all-time high was 57.69% in 1964), but this was its lowest-ever vote-share (5.3%). I attribute that partly and perhaps mainly to tactical voting: Labour supporters voting against the Conservatives (mainly) in a situation where Labour had no real chance anyway (the Labour vote here has not exceeded 20% since 2001 (21.4%). However, the 5.3%, barely enough to retain the deposit, does tend to support my view that Labour is now the party of the blacks and browns, the public service workers and those mainly dependent on State benefits.

The Sky News Political Correspondent tweeted something interesting about the Labour vote in Brecon and Radnorshire, which had been in the 10%-18% range since 2005 and until this by-election’s collapse to 5.3%:

Brecon and Radnorshire is almost entirely white British in demographic terms (Powys, the county in which is situated the constituency, is said to be 99.3% white British). In white British areas, Labour increasingly has no chance. Labour scarcely speaks to or for white British people now. This has implications that go far beyond Brecon and Radnorshire.

The Conservatives and Brexit Party down the line

Brexit Party is one of two parties that emerged in 2019 despite having no real policies (the other being the pro-EU, pro-Remain, pro-Jewish lobby party, Change UK, which sputtered to a halt almost immediately and now scarcely exists).

There is no doubt that the early promise of Brexit Party has somewhat blunted since its great 2019 EU elections success. The recent Peterborough by-election was nearly won, but not quite, Brexit Party losing to Labour by a mere 683 votes. Now we have another, though less unexpected, disappointment. Nigel Farage and his large meetings held before both the EU elections and the Peterborough by-election built up a head of steam and a head of expectation, but so far that pressure has just tooted into the void, at least as far as Westminster is concerned.

The political landscape has just suffered an earthquake. Boris Johnson (aka, to me, “Boris-idiot”) is now, incredibly, Prime Minister (or Fool posing as “King for a Day”), having been put there by about 92,000 Conservative Party members (out of about 50 MILLION voters, in other words by about 1 out of every 500 or so eligible voters). He has “pledged” (for what little his pledges are worth) to leave the EU “deal or no deal” by 31 October 2019. If that seems about to happen, I am assuming that the anti-“no deal”/WTO MPs will block it and/or vote for a no-confidence motion. That might in turn cause Boris Johnson to trigger a general election.

Alternatively, the EU might offer Johnson a form of words that he can present to the Commons as a workable “deal” (in the now familiar vulgar terminology). The UK can then pretend to leave the EU but in reality stay in, or kick the can down the road by means of an extension, which Johnson himself seemed to find acceptable recently. The Commons might block the former, but probably not the latter.

An extension (as mooted) might last until 2021 or even 2022. In 2022, new electoral boundaries will be in place in the UK. MP numbers are set to be reduced from 650 to 600. Those changes will hit both Labour and the LibDems hard.

If the Conservatives can hang on until 2022, their chances of survival (as individual MPs and as a party of government) look better. In the meantime, Boris-idiot can go on posing as Prime Minister, and his Cabinet of Conservative Friends of Israel, enemies of the people, can (with the help of their Labour Friends of Israel accomplices) pass more repressive laws to destroy (real) “democracy” and (real) civil rights in the UK…

CZpdYWeW0AQXGc_

Bso85QHCEAA1yun

scan25

That, at least, could have been the scenario had the Conservatives a majority or at least a working majority (reduced by Brecon and Radnorshire to 1 MP vote) and so able to continue as a government. As it is, whatever happens on 31 October, it cannot be long now before Labour moves a no-confidence motion. If not in November, then surely in December or early next year.

Brexit Party has not yet proven that it can win Westminster seats, but it has proven that it can prevent the Conservative Party winning. In Peterborough, the successful Labour Party candidate got 10,484 votes (30.9%). The Brexit Party got 9,801 votes (28.9%). The Conservative got 7,243 votes (21.4%). While it may be that not all of those who voted Brexit Party would, in lieu of that, have voted Conservative, most would have done; hardly any would have voted Labour, in my opinion anyway. It is clear that, without Brexit Party, the Conservatives would have won Peterborough. The same is true in Brecon and Radnorshire.

Boris Johnson may have shot Brexit Party’s fox by going all-out (supposedly) for a “no deal”/WTO Brexit if the EU does not play ball, but he has not killed that fox, just wounded it. If the UK leaves on a “no deal”/WTO basis, then Brexit Party probably will deflate to nothing, though it may reinvent itself even then. However, it seems unlikely that the majority of MPs of all parties will not block such a departure. If that happens, then Boris Johnson, however much he tries to play the Leave “tribune of the people”, will be seen by Leavers as a waste of space, “all hat and no cattle”. In that scenario, the anger of the Leave-preferring voters will devolve upon both Remain MPs and Boris-idiot. Brexit Party will then, like Antaeus treading on his native earth, be revived and take on new strength.

What Boris Johnson and the Conservatives would like is for Brexit Party to just disappear, thus leaving the Conservatives to trample all over the hopelessly-split Labour Party and the LibDems. What is more likely is that the UK will not leave the EU on any real basis by the beginning of November. Brexit Party will thus put up 650 MPs and the Conservative Party will be slaughtered. Most hard-core Leavers will vote Brexit Party, most hard-core Remainers (especially in the South) will switch to the LibDems. For Boris Johnson and the Conservatives, a two-front war. Apart from Brexit issues, anyone who believes in the Welfare State, in decent public services, in animal welfare, will not vote Conservative. Anyone hostile to Jewish Zionism, likewise.

The Brexit Party may only get 10%-20%, so say 15%, nationwide, but that alone all but destroys any hope for a majority Conservative government. My own efforts at working it out using Electoral Calculus [see Notes, below] indicate Conservative Party as largest party in Commons, but without a majority and quite possibly worse off than now.

Much depends on the LibDem vote. At present, the opinion polls show intended LibDem vote somewhere in the 15%-25% range, with latest educated guess (via Ipsos/MORI) at 20%.

That might give a Conservative majority of as much as 74. However, even if that poll is accurate, it is unlikely that the Conservatives will actually maintain a lead of 10 points over Labour. If Labour were able to achieve 30% instead of 24%, which is well within the parameters of reasonable possibility, then the Conservative Party would be 20 MPs short of a majority, i.e. worse off than now.

There again, even if Labour were still on 24%, but if Brexit Party could reach to 15% at the expense of the Conservatives on 29%, the Conservatives would be no less than 57 MPs short of a majority.

On the other hand, If Brexit Party can get 20%, LibDems 20%, Labour 25% and Conservatives 30%, the Conservatives would be about 35 MPs short of a majority.

It is a game one can play for hours.

Conclusions

The LibDems are back in the game, if only by default. They have much of the Remain vote, they have a (notionally) fresh and energetic leader, they have the votes of those disliking the other two main System parties as well as those of persons wishing to vote tactically. They have at least the possibility of a 50-seat bloc (again) in the Commons.

Brexit Party is not looking good as a potential party of government but it is looking effective as a way of blocking Conservative Party ambitions. A general election resulting in 30% Con, 30% Lab, 20% LibDem, 15% Brexit Party and 5% Green comes out with Labour as largest party, but 46 MPs short of majority, the Conservatives not far behind and the LibDems with perhaps about 50 MPs. On that basis, the LibDems could, as in 2010, be once again the kingmakers. Plus ca change…

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powys

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/voters-head-to-the-polls-for-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-live-a4202956.html

https://news.sky.com/story/liberal-democrats-win-brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-as-johnson-suffers-first-defeat-as-pm-11775356

https://www.greekmythology.com/Myths/Gigantes/Antaeus/antaeus.html

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Update, 4 August 2019

Worth reading:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/04/boris-johnson-armageddon-clock-what-is-it-counting-down-to

Andrew Rawnsley predicting the demise, quite soon, of both Boris-idiot and the Conservative government (and party):

“As he [Boris-idiot] points the country at the cliff edge and depresses the accelerator, does prime minister Johnson have any idea where this will end? It is a mistake to think that he does. No one knows what he is really up to, including himself. In one breath, he tells us that this is “do or die”; in another, he sets the odds on a no-deal Brexit at “a million to one”;

He [Boris-idiot] has to know that there is a strong possibility that it will mean an autumn general election. The least credible message from Number 10 is that it is not contemplating this outcome”;

Tory strategy for winning an election makes some very big and risky assumptions. One is that the gains harvested by the Conservatives at the expense of Labour among Leave-supporting voters will outweigh Tory losses in Remain-supporting constituencies. Nearly every top Lib Dem target is a Conservative seat, while Scottish Nationalists are hoping to scalp Tory MPs north of the border. The other perilous assumption is that Nigel Farage’s party will fade away or fold up. The leader of the Brexit party is enjoying being the object of renewed attention and displays no signs of wanting to retire again. He declares that he does not trust the prime minister and he has a bitter history of mutual loathing with Number 10’s chief strategist, Dominic Cummings.”

One lesson from the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that the Brexit party doesn’t have to do all that well – it polled barely a double-digit share on Thursday – to hurt the Tories. If the Conservatives could have added the Brexit party vote and that of Ukip to their tally, they would have held the seat with just over half the vote, rather than narrowly lose it to the Lib Dems. They’d hope to put a harder squeeze on the Brexit party in a general election, but couldn’t be absolutely confident. All the hazards of this strategy will be multiplied many times over if an election takes place after 31 October. In one scenario, we would still be in the EU, breaking the Tory leader’s “absolute commitment” to his party that Britain will be out “under any circumstances” and hugely boosting the Faragists.”

In the alternative scenario, Britain has tumbled out of the EU without an agreement. That is no longer a threat or a promise. The countdown has reached zero and no deal is a reality. Even in the less chilling versions of a crash-out Brexit – the ones that don’t involve supermarket shelves being stripped bare by panic-buying and children dying for lack of life-critical medicines – I wouldn’t want to be a prime minister trying to make a case for his re-election when the country has just suffered a big economic shock and the currency is collapsing.”

My suspicion is that the Armageddon Clock isn’t really there to count down the seconds to Brexit day. It is there to remind Boris Johnson how long he has left before it becomes too late to avoid his own doomsday.

Of course, I myself have made, in the above and previous blog posts, similar points to those now made by Andrew Rawnsley. He, however, has the inside contacts (and public profile) which I do not have. I, perforce, have to use simply my own knowledge and powers of reason (also, I am doing this unpaid, pro bono publico!)

I should say that there is little incentive for the Brexit Party to form a pact with the Conservatives unless the Conservatives in effect gift Brexit Party at least 50 winnable seats in return for Brexit Party standing down in the other 600. Such a pact might backfire for the Conservatives in that it would

  1. deprive the Conservatives of a number of seats which, even with Brexit Party standing, the Conservatives themselves might win; and
  2. create a bloc of up to 50 “fourth party” Westminster MPs for the first time, so
  3. making Brexit Party far more electorally credible in subsequent elections.

Meanwhile…

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mps-beg-brexit-party-candidates-not-to-stand-in-their-constituencies-amid-fears-of-split-vote-a4205031.html

If Brexit Party candidates give up their candidature in seats where the Conservative candidates might lose if there is a Brexit Party candidate, then not only has the Brexit Party given up what might be good chances of winning in those seats, but it has restricted itself to standing only in seats where it has, arguably, little chance of winning.

In other words, a one-way electoral pact with the Conservatives almost wipes out Brexit Party’s reason for existing. It might confirm as MPs a few Conservative Eurosceptics, but no political earthquake is going to happen just because of that. The better strategy is to fight all 650 seats and see what happens. If it should be that 200+ Conservative MPs lose their seats, then good.

Update, 23 June 2020

My analysis was not too bad (as good that of Andrew Rawnsley, anyway), but nexpected events happened, as they often do: as we now know, duing the General Election campaign of December 2019, Nigel Farage, for whatever reason, decided to stand down all his Brexit Party candidates standing in Conservative-held seats. That killed Brexit Party stone dead and ensured a Conservative Party victory by default. 2017 Labour voters did not, most of them, vote Conservative, but some did, in some seats. A relative few defected to the LibDems or what was left of Brexit Party, but almost as many as all of those simply decided not to vote.

Result: a Conservative Party majority of about 80.

Brexit is To Some Extent Only a Metaphor: What Could It Mean?

Foreword

At time of writing, we cannot escape talk of “Brexit”: the May “plan” or “deal” (i.e. Brexit In Name Only), “No Deal Brexit” (real Brexit), “Citizens’ Vote” aka “Second Referendum” (no Brexit, and rubberstamped via a plebiscite of stampeded and fearful voters) etc.

We have seen a plethora of statistical analyses, forecasts, assertions, particularly from the better-funded “Remain” side, as to the economic effect of various types of Brexit. There has been less attention paid to the socio-political effects. In addition, it may be that the wood is becoming obscure, obscured by the trees.

My View

Perhaps I should proclaim my own viewpoint first of all: the UK joined the EEC (supposedly) as a way of trading freely within the bloc. EEC became EC, various add-ons came into effect, then there was Maastricht, after which the EC became the EU, all without the peoples of the various “EU” states ever having had a say, except in Ireland, Denmark and France (which held referenda). In Denmark, two referenda had to be held before the “right” result was obtained; in France, there was a 50.8% vote in favour, rather lower than the UK’s Leave majority vote (52%, or for pedants, 51.89%) in the UK’s 2016 Referendum.

The EU has become a dictatorial, oppressive and repressive bloc, largely under the control or very strong influence of the Jew-Zionist element. Its “holocaust” “denial” laws echo the laws against heresy or blasphemy in the Europe of the late Middle Ages and Renaissance. From being a bloc of European race and culture, it has gradually been subverted by transnational finance-capitalism, Zionism etc, and has attempted to continue with the Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan, in other words the destruction of European race and culture and the “Great Replacement” of Europeans (i.e. of…us) by those of backward race and culture. Thus we saw Angela Merkel inviting migration-invasion by “blacks and browns” under the cloak of being “refugees” (which few actually were or are). This was deliberate, not the “mistake” many imagined. Merkel is a Charlemagne (Coudenhove-Kalergi) Prize-winner!

In the words of Coudenhove-Kalergi himself:

“The man of the future will be of mixed race. Today’s races and classes will gradually disappear owing to the vanishing of space, time, and prejudice. The EurasianNegroid race of the future, similar in its appearance to the Ancient Egyptians, will replace the diversity of peoples with a diversity of individuals.”

The above would in fact spell the end of Europe as a positive evolutionary force. Europe would go the way, indeed, of the ancient Egyptians and others— become decadent, mixed-race; finally, both race and culture disappearing, leaving behind only half-understood monuments, relics and ruined buildings, and a degenerate race crawling over the ruins.

As for those who have influence and control in and over the EU, we see a bunch of freeloading hypocrites, Jew-Zionists and doormats for Zionism, including the now-dead paedophile Leon Brittan, Nick Clegg, “lord” Neil Kinnock (and let’s not forget his grasping wife “lady” Glenys…) etc etc.

The EU is not “Europe”, but a caricature of it.

For several reasons and including all of the above, I came down on the Leave side in the 2016 Referendum.

The 2016 Referendum

Whatever may be said about “lies” and “fake news” (and there was at least as much on the Remain side as on that of Leave), the vote was honestly counted and the result was, in round figures, 52% Leave, 48% Remain. Britain voted to leave the EU, and it matters not at all that a certain proportion failed to vote at all, or that 48% is “nearly” half, or that it was “so close” as to be a draw (a particularly pathetic argument in a country with Britain’s First Past The Post traditions and voting system).

The Years Since the 2016 Referendum

David Cameron-Levita had complacently assumed that Remain would win the Referendum easily. He was as out of touch on that as he was generally. Clueless. Once the Referendum produced the “wrong” result, I assumed (it turns out correctly) that the ZOG/NWO conspiracy would do what it has done in previous cases (in other countries), which is to hold another vote or to make sure that Brexit became meaningless.

The British public has now been subjected to 2-3 years of fear-propaganda to soften it up for either “Brexit In Name Only” or a so-called “final vote” (aka “people’s vote”), i.e. a Second Referendum which will, they hope, produce the right result, i.e. Remain.

Part of all that is the notion that Leave voters were idiots or at least not as educated as Remain voters (a doubtful proposition) and that they did not really understand why they were voting Leave.

My Views About That

Most people who voted Leave in 2016 did so partly because the EU has become a tyrannical octopus and/or because the UK has been flooded by low-wage labour and also riff-raff thieves and parasites such as Roma Gypsy clans from countries now in the EU such as Bulgaria, Romania etc.

Many also voted Leave as a proxy for voting against the System political parties, and in particular the Conservative Party with its evil attacks on the disabled etc and its general faux-“austerity” (for the poor only), trashing of public services etc; the LibDems too, with their craven and self-seeking support for the Conservative government 2010-2015, and their support for mass immigration. Not that the Labour Party was not a target too. Many Labour seats were heavily Leave, especially in the North of England, where the Pakistani Muslim rape gangs were humoured by Labour for so long. That may have nothing to do logically or officially with the issues in the Referendum, but in the real world, there were many reasons, valid in their own way, for voting Leave. People “wanted their country back”. The Referendum was a way to make the System listen for once.

What Might Happen if the 2016 Referendum is not Honoured…

Those voting Leave and who still want out now may number 55% of the electorate, 50% or 45%. Estimates vary and opinion polls are unreliable, though it seems unlikely that Leavers are fewer than 45% of the electorate, at lowest. Leavers were always more committed, more angry than Remainers. A vocal but small minority of Remainers have pushed the agenda for nearly 3 years now. You see them on Twitter, mostly the same sorts of people (several but not many types). Pseudo-liberalistic lawyers, “media folk” etc. As for the Jews, while some individual Jews favour Leave, most support Remain. As a group, Jews are for Remain, for the EU and its repressions, against UK national sovereignty, against the real British people.

It should be added that, while most non-UK EU citizens were barred from voting in the 2016 Referendum, Irish (and some other EU) citizens resident in the UK could vote, as could all the ethnic minorities in the UK so long as the voters concerned were resident in the UK and either UK or Commonwealth state citizens.

I leave aside consideration of why Scotland voted Remain: if Scotland thinks that “independence” means leaving the UK but becoming a province of the increasingly-repressive EU (and allowing non-European migration-invasion too) then one can only shake one/s head despairingly. However, if only votes in England in 2016 are taken into account, Leave won by about 55% to 45%. If the votes of ethnic minorities are then taken out, the figure can be estimated to be something like 60% to 40%. In short, Leave was a valid result.

If the Leave vote is dishonoured, however and whyever that happens, there will be a backlash. That backlash may not be only about leaving the EU or remaining in it, but will import other issues: mass migration-invasion, “austerity”, the trashing of public services, pay, the now-punitive “welfare”/DWP system, the crimewave by non-whites (some English too). The 2016 Referendum was about more than the EU simpliciter; the backlash will be the same.

As to what form any backlash will take, “those who live will see”…

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Treaty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/01/however-brexit-ends-mays-stitch-up-will-corrode-trust-democracy/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/5533081/Kinnocks-have-six-state-pensions-worth-185000-per-year-says-think-tank.html

 

 

Tweets on the subject:

https://twitter.com/huntedfellow/status/1068080143304929280

https://twitter.com/Sage_Opinion/status/1068665698598207488

https://twitter.com/RichardAENorth/status/1068690456798728192

https://twitter.com/ShipBrief/status/1068581885595582465

https://twitter.com/LBSProtect/status/1068640396203499521