Is the Theresa May Government About To Crash Out?

This was the Daily Mail report today:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6585357/Bercows-secret-kill-Brexit-plot-Tory-saboteur-No-10-warns-PM-fall-Wednesday.html

Bloomberg analysis of Theresa May’s difficulties:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/ministers-tell-may-to-ask-corbyn-for-help-when-brexit-deal-dies

There now seems to be a serious chance that there will be a general election in the first few months of 2019, something I predicted (though not with great confidence) in previous blogs over the past year.

In previous blog posts, even recently, my prediction was that any general election in 2018 or 2019 would result in a hung Parliament but with Labour as largest party. The end result would then probably be a Labour minority government.

The Daily Mail seems to think that an early 2019 General Election, possibly as early as March, would result in a crashing defeat for the Conservative Party.

What has caused this situation is not so much Brexit, or the fear of Brexit, as the sheer incompetence of the present Government. Look at one of the least competent Cabinet Ministers (even in a poor Cabinet), Chris Grayling, who has been a member of this Cabinet and the two previous ones! A typically-psychopathic type, if I may play the armchair psychologist, who has messed-up in every job that he has ever had. Here he is explaining or rather not explaining what the Government will do if (when) Theresa May’s pathetic “deal” is rejected by the Commons:

Incompetence is a killer vote-loser for any government. Taking the years 2010-2019 as effectively one government and not three, we can see incredible incompetence across the board, from social security/”welfare” issues, pensions, HS2, transport (especially rail) generally, nuclear power, the Brexit mess (failure to prepare for a WTO Brexit from the beginning), continuing mass immigration, NHS issues…you name it.

True, many (including me) have little confidence in the competence of any Corbyn-led Labour government, but will the voters prefer to vote for Corbyn-Labour, which might be incompetent, or for a “Conservative” Party which has been proven, in spades, to be incompetent and incapable?

What about Brexit itself? It may be that Brexit, though certainly a major issue for the voters, will not play to the decisive advantage of either party. About half the country favour Remain, about half prefer Leave, with divisions in both main camps. It should be recalled, though, that “Brexit” and “Leave” are to some extent manifestations of dissatisfaction with the general way in which Britain is working, or rather not working for many many people.

My money at this stage is still on a hung Parliament with Labour as largest party, because there are huge numbers of people who will not vote Labour (ever, anyway, whatever), others who will not vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn, yet others who will not vote for a Labour Party in which deadheads such as Diane Abbott and Dawn Butler might well become Cabinet ministers.

Even psephologists struggle with election predictions. It is the “Glorious Uncertainty” of both the English racecourse and the (mainly) English electoral system. Raw percentages count for only so much, because of First Past The Post voting and the way that boundaries are sliced up.

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In the end, the “True Blue” and “Deepest Red” constituencies are not the deciders. The marginal constituencies decide. How many marginals depends. Some put true marginals at 50 (out of 650), others at 100 or even 150.

One has to make an educated guess. My guess is based on the fact that life has become progressively tougher (financially and in other ways) for most people over the past 8 years; in fact the past 10 years, 2 of which were Labour, but mostly the past 8, which have been years of “Conservative” rule. In those years, only the most wealthy or affluent 10%, maybe even 5%, have really prospered, as seen in the cartoon below from the days of the Con Coalition

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The roads are potholed, the railways expensive and chaotic, the social welfare system has become both cruel and shambolic, mass immigration continues all but unabated, education has become a joke, pay in real terms is greatly less than it was in 2010, let alone 2005, crime is often not even investigated by the police, and most local authorities are both cash-starved and incompetent. The Army has shrunk to 78,000 men (and women, now), and the same is true, mutatis mutandis, of Navy and RAF.

Does any of the above encourage people to vote Conservative? I think not. They might not all vote Labour, and there are no other options with much credibility, but it may be that enough people will either vote Labour or stay home to give Corbyn-Labour a majority. I am tempted to predict that. On balance, though, I think that I stick with hung Parliament as my present prediction, always recalling, as Harold Wilson famously said, that “a week is a long time in British politics”.

Below, an amusement: me aged 9 or maybe just turned 10, with then PM Harold Wilson. St. Mary’s, Scilly Isles, September 1966. I am the eldest boy in the photo.

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23 thoughts on “Is the Theresa May Government About To Crash Out?”

  1. The ‘Wicked Witch of the West’ Teresa Mayhem is now openly advocating cancelling Brexit should she not get her way with that fake withdrawal agreement. If I were her I would shut my evil gob because if there is an election caused by a loss of a no confidence vote like the one in 1979 and with Brexit being cancelled beforehand then it is possible the globalist non Conservative party will go down to its biggest defeat ever as Brexit supporting Tories will abstain.

    Otherwise, Labour will probably be the largest party but not win as that party piles up more massive majorities in its existing safe seats than the Tories do. Conversely though Labour also tends to win the ultra marginal seats as they did in 2017.

    If ever there was a party that deserves to be wiped off the electoral map it is the severely misnamed Consevative Party. It is a shame in some ways it didn’t happen in 1997 with the stupid English of which I am one keeping that vile anti British party on life support.

    I don’t know how someone like that Scottish Curtice chap would define a marginal seat but I think it used to be said a marginal was any constituency that had a majority of up to 20% and would thus change to the 2nd placed party on a ‘swing’ of 10% or less. Certainly, the term has always included seats with a majority of 10% and under.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/insights/ge2017_marginal_seats

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    1. My comment above makes it look as if I voted Tory in 1997 I didn’t as John Major had helpfully demonstrated even then that the Tories were just another left-liberal globalist party. I cast my vote for the Referendum Party.

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      1. Interesting. I have not voted since I was (only just) 18, in late 1974. My candidate got 594 votes (not much above 1% of votes cast) and finished last of four entrants.

        As to Referendum Party, James Goldsmith’s vehicle, you will know that it always or almost always trumped UKIP in elections until the death of its founder, but it was really a one-man-band, like Robert Kilroy-Silk’s Veritas (aka Vanitas).

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    2. As you say.

      One factor which might save some now-Conservative seats is the detestation in many Conservative voters of (in reverse order) the Labour Party, Corbyn and his entourage of mainly black and brown deadheads such as Dawn Butler, Dianne Abbott etc. That is why I bang on about people now often voting against parties, not for parties.

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      1. Indeed so. Apparantly, the Tories went down to their worst defeat since 1906 (at least as far as parliamentary constituencies held rather than vote share where it was the worst since 1832) in 1997 not just because there was fairly widespread switching of Tory voters from the Tories towards voting for so-called ‘New Labour’ but also because many Tories voted for the Referendum Party or just sat on their hands at home and didn’t vote for anyone. This factor was worth another 30 or so seats for Labour and the Liberal Democrat’s. In my own seat of Brentwood and Ongar the Tories still won by a comfortable margin even in that horrendous year for them but my seat would have come close to being a Tory/Lib Dem marginal if the Lib Dem vote hadn’t fallen and their vote here had surged instead of what actually transpired ie the Labour vote substantially increasing in what is one of the seats where Labour even then had no chance of ever winning.

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      2. Speaking personally, I can’t stand the Labour Party and about the only circumstance I could ever see myself voting Labour would be if they made a cast iron promise to either legislate for or hold a referendum on PR or if I lived somewhere like Hastings and Rye where a vote for Labour could get rid of a thoroughly obnoxious Tory left-liberal globalist scumbag mp like Amber Dudd who, sadly, managed to retain her marginal seat in 2017.

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      3. I am hoping that Amber Rudd will be removed either by the voters or elsehow. I think that her days as MP are numbered. The boundary changes of 2010 in Hastings and Rye helped Amber Rudd, whereas the Green Party not contesting in 2017 helped Labour. Majority of 300. She will probably be voted out at the next election, especially if the Greens fail to contest.

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  2. Ha, Ian, an early version of a selfie! Yes, Harold Wilson apparently always went to the Sicily Islands for his holidays.The only selfie I have had taken with someone famous was with the French chef Raymond Blanc after he had done a cookery demonstration in a store in Oxford Street.

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    1. Pity, perhaps, that I have never been very narcissistic in that way. A photo of me in earnest conversation with Prince Charles (in Central Asia, at a small diplomatic reception, our talk lasting all of 4 minutes!) might be good propaganda for me!

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  3. Amber Dudd is truly atrocious even by the very low standards of CONservative Party MPs nowdays not only on account of her rabid belief in liberal-left globalist values but also her fanatical anti-democratic approach towards nationalist dissidents. I think it was probably the voters in the picturesque town of Rye (I’ve visited it) which saved her bacon in 2017. If the Labour vote holds whist a few Tories abstain she will lose next time and that would be a great sight and a good result for the country.

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    1. Amber Rudd is also a fully paid up pro-Jew/pro-Israel drone. She, with Theresa May, was pushing for even more repression of free expression in the UK, especially as regards Jews/Israel/Zionism. That has been blown off course by events, but she has to go before she can revive such legislative proposals.

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  4. As I said, Ian, and as you have proven conclusively there a very vile woman. Fortunately, according to the latest predictions on the electoral calculus site she is on course to lose her seat unless there is a major Tory revival and that is something I doubt this utter shambles of a ‘government’ can achieve and even if it did she might not win her own seat as I don’t think she has much in the way of a personal vote. Boundary changes taking in more of the prosperous Rother council area would be her only hope!

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    1. Any boundary change of that nature would not happen until 2022, along with those already planned. Her brother, Roland Rudd, strikes me as a quietly sinister figure too. He was well-connected during the Blair-Brown elected dictatorship.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Rudd

      Amber Rudd is of course personally involved, or was, with Kwasi Kwarteng MP…

      Overall, Amber Rudd is an enemy of the people. The sooner she ceases to be an MP the better for all of us. A note of warning, though: we have recently seen that Nicola Blackwood, a wealthy (thanks to parents and now husband) waste of space, who was chuckled out as MP after 7 years of uninspired activity in the Commons, is now made a fake “baroness”; worse, brought back into government as a junior minister! This habit of stuffing government with “peers” makes even more of a mockery of the UK’s supposed “democracy”.

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      1. Kwasi Kwarteng! Those thick rimmed glasses she wears aren’t doing her much good!Perhaps, a visit to Specsavers would be a good port of call for the dumb virulently anti-British cow! Mind you, when you have much higher social status people like Prince Harry getting his very desperate leg over with third rate Hollywood ‘actresses’ like Meghan Markle and turning a so-called Royal Family into a worldwide laughing stock her going with Kwasi should come as no great surprise. I suppose this Kwasi creature went to Eton College, did he? My the standards have really dropped there!The Tories are so desperate to be PC correct they can’t even be bothered to select African origin candidates with English names!

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  5. Not only does she have very little in the way of a personal vote, I have read that the voters of Hastings and Rye don’t like her very much with some actively despising her as they say she is a bad constituency mp who doesn’t do much for her constituents. With that taken into account she could well lose her now ultra-marginal seat even against a rising Tory vote share nationwide not that we are likely to see that anyday soon.

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  6. A lookback to the early ’70s to bring to mind when you are next deciding for whom to vote:

    https://archive.org/details/RaceAndPolitics1978

    ‘As a comment on how a multiracial democracy works in practice, it may be fitting to mention here that when the Socialists were in Office in 1969, the leader of the Conservatives, Mr. Edward Heath, promised (January 1969) that if the Conservative Party were again elected to Office (1) Commonwealth citizens will not have the right to settle permanently in Great Britain, (2) no immigrant will be able to stay in Great Britain for an unlimited period, (3) any immigrant admitted will no longer enjoy an absolute right to bring in relatives, and (4) the decision as to whether any immigrant from any part of the world is eligible to be admitted will be made by British authorities in his country of origin. Mr. Edward Heath added: “These are the proposals that the next Conservative Government will carry out. But the matter is urgent.” When later the Conservatives were elected to Office, largely on this assurance, they expediently did nothing to honour their pledge, thus highlighting an inherent weakness in multiracial democracies (in both England and America) where politicians unscrupulously pander to minority fraternities to solicit votes for election to power. . . .

    The author’s concluding comment is imo naive.

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  7. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-vote-live-mps-to-decide-whether-to-back-theresa-mays-deal-today-a4038506.html. After Theresa May’s spectular defeat, i noticed the Sadiq Khan speaking on the BBC claiming that the only alternative is a second referendum, however he deviously suggested that the only questions that should feature on the said referendum should be: remain in the EU or May’s deal! Considering how unpopular her deal is, the chances are that the public would probably prefer to remain! Talk about a scam! Also, damien grieve amendments last week made it potentially more likely that we could remain! Although, I take comfort from the fact with something as “unprecedented” as this, that unforeseen circumstances are a distinct possibility!

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    1. Chaos looms: Con MPs have, almost half of them, not backed PM, but tomorrow in the confidence vote, it may be a different story. If there is an election, quite a number of Con MPs are gone. Will turkeys vote for Christmas? Still, even if all Con MPs back May tomorrow, she still needs more support. Will DUP vote for her? Doubtful.

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      1. The DUP have said they will be supporting the government tomorrow and as May’s pretty obvious attempt to push through a fake Brexit was pretty comprehensively crushed by the House of Commons tonight they should have more confidence in their confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories. Certainly, if it had been passed they would have had no incentive to prevent the CONs from crashing and burning.

        Even in the event of the confidence motion succeeding a general election doesn’t automatically follow now thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 which means a two week period in which an alternative government can be formed elapses before a general election becomes a certainty. As we are now, clearly, in wholly uncharted territory here, who knows what will be contained within the next instalment of this soap opera? Will fanatical Remainers in tneTory Party vote to bring down their own government?

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      2. Thank you for the info re DUP. Of course, they hate Corbyn because of the IRA connection in 1970s and 80s.

        I wonder how many Con MPs will abstain? I doubt that many if any will actually vote AGAINST the Government. It might be close, anyway.

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  8. I doubt whether any will either not least for the fact not all the Tory remainers have ultra-safe seats where the sitting Blue MP could be a paedophile and survive all but the most calamitous landslide defeat ie Dominic Grieve’s Beconsfield but much more marginal ones like Anna ‘Sourpous’ Soubry in Broxtowe who tonight looked as if she had, ONCE AGAIN, hit the bottle like her EU idol Junker.

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