If Food Supplies Are Held Up Because of Brexit, The Conservatives Are Toast

The failure of the so-called “political class”, aka Westminster Bubblers, is manifest more clearly every day. We now know, if we did not already know, that the government of this country is in the hands of incompetent chancers, that the Opposition is in the hands of bad jokes, that the British Constitution is not a finely-tuned machine but a broken bit of clockwork, and that the Queen is about as much use as a human rubber stamp.

Brexit looms, but the fact is that now it either will not happen at all or will happen only in some very vague way (Brexit In Name Only). The only way that it can now happen as a real thing is if Boris Johnson, for reasons of blatant self-interest, manages to get it over the line, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

In the law, a saying was always “justice delayed is justice denied”. Apply that to the 2016 Referendum.

 

Now no-one expected that the UK would leave the EU the very next day. There are processes, procedures, timetables etc. However, the British Government, or what passes for it, should have within a short space of time triggered the Article 50 process, which (under the Lisbon Treaty) gives a state wishing to exit the EU two years in which to complete the leave process. In fact, Theresa May did not even send the triggering letter for nearly a year after the 2016 Referendum; she then asked for extension of time when the process should already have been completed.

Had the 2-year process (it can be less— 1 year, 18 months, whatever) been started soon after the Referendum result, the whole Brexit process would have been finished by the Autumn of 2018 at the latest. Now here we are, more than a year later, and with no obvious closure in sight.

I always said, right from the start, that a huge campaign would be waged by the international conspiracy to keep the UK in or tied to the EU. The EU is a major building-block of the New World Order strategy. The UK is a major building-block of the EU. You get my meaning.

I favour the UK getting out of the EU, I favour Brexit, but the Brexit process has been so criminally mishandled that it is hard to avoid the conclusion that that mishandling was done deliberately.

Whatever the truth of all that, the fact is that the sheer duration of this whole process, which has now gone on for over three years, has not only delayed democratic decision from being implemented, but has denied democracy itself. Now it is said by the Remain partisans that it is so long since the 2016 Referendum that huge numbers of people have changed their minds or even just died, and so it is bizarre to implement the Referendum decision.

That view is not without force: the process has dragged on. People may well have a different view now, but that is in part why the process should have been expedited and handled properly. If a general election were called and held and if then the results were delayed in being implemented for 3 or 4 years, I daresay that many people would start to say “I have changed my mind!”…

So here we are, still in a state of uncertainty. I cannot say whether the UK will leave or (in the Remainers’ propagandistic “transformational vocabulary”) “crash out” of the EU “without a deal”, i.e. on basic WTO terms, or whether some “deal” not very dissimilar to Theresa May’s one(s) will be accepted both by the person presently posing as Prime Minister and by the UK Parliament. It is an open question as I write.

What about the next election?

It now appears that any general election will not be called until October (assuming that Parliament is not recalled until October) and so may not happen until November, or even later.

Boris Johnson wanted to make the next general election all about Brexit. That way, fervent pro-Brexit voters would join with those who would vote Conservative-label whatever, giving the Conservative Party a Commons majority fuelled by Brexit anger. That has now been denied to him.

As time goes by, the inadequacies so obvious in Boris-Idiot will become ever more apparent. That is a major reason why Boris needs a swift election. Time is not on his side, in my opinion.

At present, most of the opinion polls put the Conservatives well in the lead, by 3, 5, 10, even 14 points over Labour. Neither the LibDems nor Brexit Party are at 25% in the polls, though a recent outlying poll had the LibDems close to 20%. A national average below 25% will not change political history.

In 2005, the LibDems got 22%, then increased that to 23% in 2010. In 2015, the LibDem vote declined to 7.9%, and in 2017 to 7.4%, but the LibDems’ propensity to embed themselves in particular seats meant that they retained 8 seats in 2015 and (by reason of Britain’s mad and unfair FPTP voting system) won a total of 12 seats in 2017.

At present, the Conservatives are polling generally above 30%, in one outlier at 35%. Labour is in the doldrums, somewhere in the 23%-29% range. That is very poor, bearing in mind the overall situation.

Present polling would place the Conservatives in Commons-majority territory, though the size of that majority could be anywhere from single figures to triple figures.

The Jews have been on Corbyn’s back for years, and he has (perhaps typically) chosen to ignore the threat from them rather than take the war to them. So he has chosen (along with John McDonnell) to parrot “holocaust” nonsense and the like (eg on officially-marked “holocaust” days), rather than fight the lies and fakery of the whole “holocaust” scenario and mega-scam. Meanwhile, Tom Watson, Corbyn’s supposed deputy, someone completely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has chosen this crucial time, of all times, to highlight yet more “Labour antisemitism” propaganda!

In other words, Labour remains a house divided and in fact divided in more ways than one. That does not attract voters. Also unattractive to much of the electorate is the fact that so many Labour MPs now are blacks and browns. The Labour core vote now is really the black-brown part of the population, together with public service workers (notably NHS) and others paid or supported via State monies of one kind or another.

The white British voters are mostly not voting Labour now: the Scottish ones mostly vote SNP and Conservative (about 70% in all), whereas the English are voting primarily Conservative (42.4% in UK in 2017, but that figure disguises a higher percentage in England itself). It is not that voters generally like or respect the Conservatives, but that Labour is a complete turn-off for many. A vote not for, but against

Labour however has some good cards to play in terms of policy: rail nationalization, utilities regulation, rights of tenants and employees. It is just that it is not being allowed by the pro-Conservative/pro-Israel msm from putting that message effectively to most voters. There is also the point that, despite the complete unfitness of Boris Johnson for public office, his age and vigour (albeit misdirected vigour) helps him vis-a-vis Corbyn, who is presented in the msm as old and (by implication) useless.

I do not see Labour as coming back, in electoral terms, in most of England and Wales outside London and the West Midlands/Northern rustbelts. Could anything change that? There is one thing. Breakdown of public order and/or resupply of basic goods.

The Yellowhammer report, if accurate, indicates the possibility of shortages of fuel, medicines, even fresh food, if the UK leaves the UK without a “deal” of some kind. If that were to happen, then people would rapidly turn, not to Labour, as such, but against the Conservative government.

There are other nuances: Brexit Party has deflated from its stellar start, and the Conservatives have rejected an electoral pact, but if the UK does not fully leave the EU in reality, Brexit Party, like Antaeus, would contact its native earth and be reinvigorated. That would cut into the Conservative vote. On 15%, Brexit Party weakens, but not mortally, the Conservatives’ chances; on anything over 20%, Brexit Party would cull dozens if not hundreds of Conservative MPs even if Brexit Party itself were to win few seats.

Another Con Coalition?

Jo Swinson, entirely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has now said that she would never “work with” Corbyn (because of “anti-Semitism”, she says; but she is completely pro-finance capitalism anyway). That would seem to rule out a coalition or arrangement with Labour (so long as Corbyn heads it); it does not rule out a coalition with the Conservatives.

Conclusion

I should say that, at this stage, despite most polls showing the Conservatives many points ahead of Labour, the next general election is quite open. It is unlikely that Labour can win a Commons majority, but it is just about possible that, if chaos or the appearance of chaos soon rules, Labour could, if largest party, come to an arrangement with the SNP and smaller parties (Plaid, Greens, some Northern Irish) to form a minority government.

A Boris Johnson government with a real majority would be a catastrophe. You might as well relocate the UK government to Tel Aviv.

Much depends on whether Boris Johnson makes major mistakes between now and then. Apart from that, the election may well be dependent more than usually upon…events.

Notes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7458401/Labour-Leave-voters-switch-Nigel-Farages-Brexit-Party-vote-Tories.html

 

Update, 14 September 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/13/criminal-gangs-will-cash-in-on-no-deal-brexit-police-warn

Update, 15 September 2019

The opinion polls are all over the place: Opinium just published this poll:

which would give the “Conservatives” a Commons majority of as much as 92.

On the other hand, ComRes has published this (see below), which might see Labour as the largest party in the Commons (265 seats as against the Conservatives’ 261) but about 61 seats short of a majority, in which case the only way in which Corbyn could rule would be via an arrangement with the SNP (Jo Swinson having already ruled out the LibDems, who on this showing might have 45 MPs), with Plaid Cymru, Green and Irish MPs in the mix. What would the SNP want as an inducement? Probably more funding for Scotland, and the right to call another Independence referendum whenever they like. I imagine that the Kremlin will be taking a keen interest, in view of, inter alia, the nuclear submarine bases in Scotland.

Update, 22 September 2019

The two latest polls indicate the political uncertainty about: the YouGov poll might mean a Conservative plurality in the Commons, but no majority (perhaps about 6 short of a majority, so not so different to the present situation); the Opinium poll, in a general election, would give the Conservatives a Commons majority of around 156!

Enthusiasm lacking at the 2019 Conservative Party Conference!

18 thoughts on “If Food Supplies Are Held Up Because of Brexit, The Conservatives Are Toast”

  1. The Tories are trying to unite as many leave voters behind them as possible and according to those polls they are having a lot of success at this. Meanwhile, the Remainers are very split between the newly-revived Lib Dem’s and Labour which under the the absurd undemocratic crap of FPTP will be fatal.

    However, as you say, the Tory strategy heavily relies upon a MEANINGFUL Brexit being delivered and SOON lest doubts creep in about the Tories actually overseeing a REAL form of leaving AND more people belatedly realising that the Tory membership has saddled us with a completely incompetent, LYING/SELF-SERVING (even David Cameron-Levita has woken-up to reality here!) and dangerous CLOWN for PM.

    Boris The Buffoon wants to go to the country as soon as he can for many reasons and one of the most important is if he does yank the country out of the EU via a no deal he doesn’t want either himself or his party to be blamed for people dying through a lack of medicines or the general chaos of petrol and food shortages, transport delays etc. In other words, he wants a general election and to win it before people notice the full effects of a non sufficiently well-planned for/ well enough resourced no deal situation. If Labour and the Lib Dem’s have any sense they will make sure Boris is kept waiting for a longtime yet.

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    1. You are like the famous buses of Flanders and Swann, which are not seen for a long time, and then appear en masse!

      As to your points made, exactly so. Boris-Idiot *needs* a swift election. I am thinking that he wants some little movement by the EU so that he can grasp it, then say “look, I have delivered Brexit with a deal better than Theresa May’s”…but failing that, he might just try to ignore the “no no deal Brexit” law passed. If that happens, then the muddle intensifies, because without an extension, Brexit will be automatic on 31 October. He can then be Poundland Churchill, the Brexit Battler.

      The polls are wide open now: I saw one which would result in a large Conservative majority, another which would leave Labour as largest party and Corbyn as likely PM…

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  2. Jo Swinson seems to be a daft cow on the surface ie ruling-out any form of co-operation with Labour (as if beggars can be choosers!) but there are only about two seats in the country where her party has a reasonable chance of taking them off Corbyn’s party whereas all the other decent Lib Dem chances are in Tory-held seats so her thinking is that if she can shut-down the inevitable Tory argument of ‘Vote for Swinson and you will get Corbyn’ in these seats then enough pro-EU Tory remainers in them will switch to her party to win them.

    The Tories have to guard against the possibility of the Lib Dem’s taking seats like St.Albans and seats like Lewes, St Ives, Hazel Grove etc ie the ones they gained from the Lib Dem’s in 2015 going back to the Lib Dem’s again.

    If they lose sufficient seats like these to the Lib Dem’s then the Tories will have to take more pro-Brexit Labour-voting seats like Ashfield to compensate.

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    1. Would that make a difference, though? If Con seats go to LibDems, yes the Cons might not get a majority, *but* would then make a second Con Coalition with the LibDems. Boris as PM, Jo Bitch as Deputy PM.

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      1. If I were the Liberal Democrat Party I would be very wary indeed of forming another coalition with the Tories and I certainly wouldn’t do it without a Tory promise of holding a referendum on introducing a system of PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION ie not a repeat of that farcical referendum we had in 2011 on the distinctly NON-PR system of the Alternative Vote (AV).

        Ideally, such a referendum would include not just a single choice of PR system but allow us to choose from either the Lib Dem preferred system of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) or the German/New Zealand one called Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP). I believe that MMP would have a better chance of getting sufficient public support to change the system than STV would since MMP doesn’t use a ranked-ballot.

        The Lib Dem’s are very lucky not to have completely disappeared due to that coalition with the Tories and basically they can’t afford to have another near-death experience.

        https://www.makevotesmatter.org.uk

        http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk

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      2. On the other hand, the LibDems can laugh, because after all the evil things for which they voted 2010-2015, here are the mugs or mug-voters again, giving them another chance! Jo Swinson was PPS to Nick Clegg at one point.She is guilty…

        Of course, you have voters now aged 18 who were only 9 or 10 when the Con Coalition was formed. Maybe that explains some of this. I think that the main thing is that few now are really voting *for* the LibDems as such, but voting tactically against others.

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  3. I have a feeling a lot of this increase in the Tory share of the vote is happening NOT in areas where it is needed ie marginal Labour-held seats like Kensington or Ashfield but in massively Tory constituencies like mine in Brentwood and Ongar. There is no point in their increasing the safeness of this seat to an even more loony level as the Tory MP already has a majority of 24,002 ( up from a miserly one of 21,000 in 2015) It is far better to have your vote in the country spread-out more efficiently as you only need to win a seat by one vote more than your nearest opponent under the crazy system of First Past The Post. A Tory majority in Brentwood and Ongar of 24,002 is no more valuable or useful to the party nationally than the Tory majority of 31 in their most marginal seat of Southampton Itchen is.

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  4. Boris-Idiot is now comparing himself to that comic strip character The Hulk on the front page of the Sunday Mail! Call me old-fashioned if you will but I like my PM’s to be sober, sane, serious and thoughtful characters and not total buffoons who the whole globe laughs at.

    If it were not the case that he is a globalist, I would prefer Dominic Grieve to be our PM instead of Boris because at least he does come across as Prime Ministerial unlike The Clown!

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  5. In a country more civilized than the UK currently is, here’s how civil disorder would be dealt with, cost-effectively and cutting out the middle-man:
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/x0qHZfcYZLq7/

    OTOH for those who feel the need to provide employment for otherwise surplus people, consider the remarks of Sir James Fitzjames Stephen in vol.2 of his “History of the Criminal Law of England” (1883) where he dilates on the necessity of causing pain and humiliation to those who maliciously inflict it upon others, and advocates destruction of the earthly shell of the most wicked reprobates as the only practical solution to the problem they present to society. The relevant section may be found by searching for flogging, public school and birching!

    Hitherto I’ve felt rather squeamish about this but reading the latest news reports of random murders in “drug turf wars” and the grinning insolence of defendants in murder trials, a personal Final Solution for some does seem the only way to stop society spiralling into complete chaos.

    PS: enjoy your new “healthy” diet, all you featherless bipeds of the gobal plantation:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/healthy-low-fat-insect-and-plant-protein-launched-in-wales

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      1. That is the truth of it and sadly for us this isn’t just amongst too many ordinary voters but amongst people who have power over us ie politicians of all parties including what is probably the most misnamed party in the world the Conservative Party, police chiefs etc.

        London has a high crime rate now not just because of a lack of sufficiently stiff criminal penalties at the national level, police officers who spend more time looking-out for people who write mean non-pc tweets on Twitter than they do walking the streets and providing a visible police presence and a rubbish mayor in Sadie Khan but because London has too many people in it from violent, crime ridden cultures such as Somalia and other Third World dumps.

        Thanks Tories and Labour for importing these people!🤬😡🤬😡

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      2. Yes. It is now obvious even in the better parts of the capital. The less pleasant areas have been sliding into multi-ethnic chaos for several decades and are now almost indistinguishable from Afro-Asian urban melanges. East London, much of South London, in fact much of London generally. The better areas, meanwhile, look out from behind their burglar alarms and electric gates.

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  6. If you put in the two simple words of London and stabbings into Google’s search box a veritable litany of horrific stabbing murder/assault stories come up. Yet, Boris the PC globalist Buffoon of the self-proclaimed ‘party of law and order’ (WHERE exactly is the effing EVIDENCE for such a bold claim?) is desperate for a general election soon where he and his party will want us to vote for them in our millions on account of that claim and many others.

    Personally, I would rather slit my throat than vote for a party presiding over such a shocking state of utter lawlessness.

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  7. This is something useful the UK Column brought up quite a while back and occasionally reiterate:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4352425.stm
    15 March 2005(!)

    “Tory candidate quits over remark.

    Mr Howard accepted the candidate’s decision “with regret”.

    A Conservative election challenger is quitting after being quoted as wanting a “period of creative destruction in the public services”.
    Danny Kruger, who also works in the Tory research unit, had been due to take on Tony Blair in Sedgefield….”

    And here in 2010 we have Nick Boles MP (in the news some months back over shifting allegiances*) reading from the same (presumably Common Purpose) script:

    https://nakedentrepreneur.blogspot.com/2010/12/is-nick-boles-mp-right-to-call-for.html

    * https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/102574/rebel-tory-mp-nick-boles-quits-local-party

    It’s ongoing and plainly the so-called Conservative Party are just a packet of Bolshevik subversives like all the other fakers on the UK political scene that have any funding at all.

    Speaking of the UKC, they brought up an interesting item Friday week or thereabouts concerning promotion by iirc Extinction Rebellion (banksters’ little helpers) of civil unrest including violence. Will Prevent be investigating? Has any politician suggested they do so? Any activity drowned out by the noise of crickets….

    Some interesting remarks about NGOs’ involvement in U.S. immigration/refugee/asylum charades and discussion of the desirability of Whites adopting same mechanisms and working on community groupings** given the fact of no representation through conventional governmental organs in the US. Rather long but the first 50m or so meritworthy enough

    [audio src="https://traffic.libsyn.com/preview/identitydixie/Rebel_Yell_20190830_150_John_Q._Publius_Nonprofits.mp3" /]

    and/or here among other NGO-related pieces of his:
    https://theanatomicallycorrectbanana.com/home/2019/8/8/the-way-life-should-be-vol-ii-do-not-pass-ngo-do-not-collect-200

    ** see also:
    https://thepioneerlittleeuropeprospectus.blogspot.com/2011/11/pioneer-little-europe-prospectus-by-h.html

    PS: Greg Johnson reports a suggested rebuff to the Trotskyite neural disruptor “raycis’ / raceest”:

    “Replaceist!”

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    1. Danny Kruger, the name seems vaguely familiar from a long time ago. I must have read about him.

      As you say, this is part of a process, and co-ordinated beyond parties. When I returned to the UK to live in 2009, most recent stop having been in France, I was told by someone that it was planned to reduce hugely local government services in some fields. 2009, so a year *before* “Conservatives” won power at Westminster. They merely intensified what was *already* determined policy.

      There are many catspaws out there, like that unpleasant Greta Thunberg creature. Extinction Rebellion are just “useful idiots”.

      Like

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