Hartlepool By-Election 2021— preliminary look

A by-election is to be held on 6 May 2021 at Hartlepool. The by-election is being seen as a barometer measuring support for the Labour Party, as well as that for the Conservative Party government. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9438925/Keir-Starmer-course-humiliating-defeat-Hartlepool-election.html.

The by-election is seen as an important one, and that fact has already resulted in Wikipedia giving it a dedicated article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hartlepool_by-election.

Polling seems to show that this is essentially a straight fight between Con and Lab:

A poll - commissioned by the Communication Workers Union (CWU) and conducted over the phone - suggests North Yorkshire farmer Ms Mortimer will walk away with a 20 percentage point increase on the votes won by the Tories in December 2019. Pictured: The predicted split in votes

There are likely to be at least 10 candidates in all, possibly 11 or 12.

Hartlepool has been held by the Labour Party since its creation in 1974. The Labour vote peaked, perhaps surprisingly, when Peter Mandelson was the candidate in 1997. Over 60%. The lowest trough was in 2015, when Labour scored 35.6% (UKIP second with 28%). Labour recovered to 52.5% in 2017, but crashed back to 37.7% in 2019.

The Conservative Party vote peaked early, in the first election of 1974 (45.7%). The Con trough was in 2001 (20.9%).

Brexit Party, represented by its deputy leader, Richard Tice, might have succeeded in 2019 had Nigel Farage not stabbed his own party in the back in order to help the Conservatives win the General Election. Even so, Tice managed a 25.8% third placing, not far behind the Conservative candidate. Reform Party is the forlorn reincarnation of Brexit Party, but already seems doomed. Even Farage, its “leader” until recently, has jumped ship.

Hartlepool vote share graph.png

Labour’s national problems have been intensified in Hartlepool by its candidates of recent years. Mike Hill, the MP since 2017, stepped down because he was facing sex pest allegations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Hill_(British_politician). A pretty dull Labour Party drone, who worked in trade unions and public libraries before becoming an MP.

Now Labour is facing further problems, this time with its new candidate, Paul Williams [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Williams_(Labour_politician)], an NHS medic: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56460823, though it can probably be said that the story (about old tweets by Williams) is overblown.

Official portrait of Dr Paul Williams crop 2.jpg
[Paul Williams, Labour Party candidate at the 2021 Hartlepool by-election]

Williams is obviously a careerist, and was the MP for Stockton South 2015-2017, when he lost to the Conservative candidate. He has also tried to become a Police and Crime Commissioner.

On paper, Williams looks like a solid candidate, with a solid background in healthcare as a GP etc, but is said to have been not very liked when MP for Stockton South. He is pro-EU in a very anti-EU part of the UK.

Labour’s national profile at present is not encouraging. The Jewish lobby managed, after a four-year struggle, to bin Jeremy Corbyn, replacing him with Keir Starmer, married to a woman who is a Jewish lawyer, and whose children are being brought up as Jewish.

Starmer is doing no better than Corbyn did in gaining public trust or popularity.

The Conservative candidate is Jill Mortimer, a farmer from North Yorkshire: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-hartlepool-candidate-admits-doesnt-23821830. She looks like a pain in the neck but, as she says in that Mirror report, a place like Hartlepool might benefit from an active MP.

An interesting intervener is Northern Independence Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Independence_Party], which is disliked by the Jew claque on Twitter— a good sign. Its candidate is Thelma Walker, who was a Labour MP from 2015-2017: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelma_Walker. Her candidature may stop Labour from winning, in what looks like being a fairly close contest.

I do not feel inclined to call the result, as yet, though obviously Labour is on the back foot. If the Conservative Party wins, it will not be because there is sudden enthusiasm for it, or for Boris-idiot, but because Labour is sliding to oblivion. If Labour loses, Hartlepool may go down in British political history as the beginning of the end for the Labour Party.

Update, 9 May 2021

Well, in the end, the Conservative Party candidate won easily: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

Out of over 70,000 eligible voters, fewer than 30,000 turned out to vote. Official turnout was 42.7%. Of those (nearly) 30,000, only about 8,500 voted for the Labour Party candidate. 8,500 out of a possible 70,000…

The beginning of the end for the Labour Party.

8 thoughts on “Hartlepool By-Election 2021— preliminary look”

  1. Whilst I don’t like Labour, I hope the probable Tory idiot doesn’t win. Hartlepool would be sending a terrible signal to the rest of the country that it approves of the grotesque mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic by the morons of Boris and Priti ‘let me intentionally MURDER tens of thousands of those hated old white people by refusing to implement ultra-tough travel restrictions to Britain FROM MARCH 2020 as I should have done’ Patel.

    Patel is a MURDERER and having such a vile person as her as Home Secretary should NEVER be be given ANY sort of reward.

    It was either her or Boris who sanctioned this murderous and incredibly callous course and they should, as a consequence, be held responsible for it. If I had my way either or both of them would be either given a good old-fashioned long-drop British hanging or be given a 50 years to life without parole (LWOP) sentence in a prison cell as the Tories admired Yanks often do to their worst criminals.

    Like

  2. Sounds like Labour has an excellent candidate there! It would be better to have a qualified and highly educated person as a former GP as an MP particularly in these COVID-19 times than a a probable dim country yokel Tory farmer! The Tories, to my knowledge, only have one former GP on their benches in Westminster ie the MP for a seat in Leicestershire! We really don’t need yet another Boris The Buffoon supporting thicko in the House!

    Not content with their criminal mishandling of Covid-19 the Tories are breaking every previous promise they have ever made regarding immigration to this country including Cameron’s one made as recently as 2010 to get immigration down to the, “low tens of thousands” . Boris and his criminal sidekick of Patel has allowed the migration of up to FIVE MILLION HK Chinese despite the fact we are grotesquely overcrowded already and the fact HK ceased being a British colony as long ago as 1997.🙄🤬😡☹️😞

    In the sixties, one Tory campaign in an election then boldly stated, “if you want a nigger for a neighbour vote Labour” but under Patel and Boris the slogan should be “if you want a possible new transmitter of a deadly virus in the future Chink for a neighbor then vote CONServative”

    JUST DON’T vote for the globalist open borders supporting FAKE CONServative Party, Hartlepool!

    Like

  3. So the Labour candidate is a very pro-EU guy in a part of the country which is heavily anti-EU!

    So what! EU withdrawal was only wanted by the Tories to get back some cheap votes from Farage The Grifter’s lot and to get them out of paying higher taxes resulting from EU regulations/tax avoidance measures!

    Genuine nationalist reasons for Brexit which are the only real credible reasons for wanting it and the only real basis for making it a success such as those that were espoused by the likes of Enoch Powell are not acknowledged by the Tories.

    The CONServatives wanted Brexit for libertarian globalist reasons ie their juvenile and unworkable fantasy of a ‘Global Britain’ and it has already resulted in us having an even WORSE immigration policy than we had before!🤬😡😞☹️

    Brexit is indeed ‘Brexshit’ under the globalist Tories as the Remainers/Rejoiners call it!

    Brexit under Tory misrule is ONE HUGE CON!

    Like

  4. We all know that lefties are often prone to utter lunacy and to flights of fantasy but that Northern Independence Party surely takes the biscuit!

    Now, it is one thing for lefties in Scotland and Wales like the SNP and Plaid Cymru to advocate independence for their respective parts of the United Kingdom but advocating the creation of a breakaway state for NOT England as a whole but for just one part of it is crazy!

    Even Cornish independence makes more sense as they at least have the beginnings of a unique language revival and some coherent identity! By all means pursue the aim of a Northern devolved assembly/parliament within the UK or even within an independent England but partitioning England into separate states is a loony idea too far!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s