A by-election is to be held on 6 May 2021 at Hartlepool. The by-election is being seen as a barometer measuring support for the Labour Party, as well as that for the Conservative Party government. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9438925/Keir-Starmer-course-humiliating-defeat-Hartlepool-election.html.
The by-election is seen as an important one, and that fact has already resulted in Wikipedia giving it a dedicated article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hartlepool_by-election.
Polling seems to show that this is essentially a straight fight between Con and Lab:
There are likely to be at least 10 candidates in all, possibly 11 or 12.
Hartlepool has been held by the Labour Party since its creation in 1974. The Labour vote peaked, perhaps surprisingly, when Peter Mandelson was the candidate in 1997. Over 60%. The lowest trough was in 2015, when Labour scored 35.6% (UKIP second with 28%). Labour recovered to 52.5% in 2017, but crashed back to 37.7% in 2019.
The Conservative Party vote peaked early, in the first election of 1974 (45.7%). The Con trough was in 2001 (20.9%).
Brexit Party, represented by its deputy leader, Richard Tice, might have succeeded in 2019 had Nigel Farage not stabbed his own party in the back in order to help the Conservatives win the General Election. Even so, Tice managed a 25.8% third placing, not far behind the Conservative candidate. Reform Party is the forlorn reincarnation of Brexit Party, but already seems doomed. Even Farage, its “leader” until recently, has jumped ship.
Labour’s national problems have been intensified in Hartlepool by its candidates of recent years. Mike Hill, the MP since 2017, stepped down because he was facing sex pest allegations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Hill_(British_politician). A pretty dull Labour Party drone, who worked in trade unions and public libraries before becoming an MP.
Now Labour is facing further problems, this time with its new candidate, Paul Williams [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Williams_(Labour_politician)], an NHS medic: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56460823, though it can probably be said that the story (about old tweets by Williams) is overblown.
Williams is obviously a careerist, and was the MP for Stockton South 2015-2017, when he lost to the Conservative candidate. He has also tried to become a Police and Crime Commissioner.
On paper, Williams looks like a solid candidate, with a solid background in healthcare as a GP etc, but is said to have been not very liked when MP for Stockton South. He is pro-EU in a very anti-EU part of the UK.
Labour’s national profile at present is not encouraging. The Jewish lobby managed, after a four-year struggle, to bin Jeremy Corbyn, replacing him with Keir Starmer, married to a woman who is a Jewish lawyer, and whose children are being brought up as Jewish.
Starmer is doing no better than Corbyn did in gaining public trust or popularity.
The Conservative candidate is Jill Mortimer, a farmer from North Yorkshire: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-hartlepool-candidate-admits-doesnt-23821830. She looks like a pain in the neck but, as she says in that Mirror report, a place like Hartlepool might benefit from an active MP.
An interesting intervener is Northern Independence Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Independence_Party], which is disliked by the Jew claque on Twitter— a good sign. Its candidate is Thelma Walker, who was a Labour MP from 2015-2017: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelma_Walker. Her candidature may stop Labour from winning, in what looks like being a fairly close contest.
I do not feel inclined to call the result, as yet, though obviously Labour is on the back foot. If the Conservative Party wins, it will not be because there is sudden enthusiasm for it, or for Boris-idiot, but because Labour is sliding to oblivion. If Labour loses, Hartlepool may go down in British political history as the beginning of the end for the Labour Party.