Diary Blog, 16 April 2025, including thoughts about cruelty to animals in Egypt, about Reform’s chances of having nearly 200 MPs elected, and about the Runcorn and Helsby by-election

Afternoon music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_MacDowell]
[Hamptons coastline, Long Island]

From the newspapers

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14614247/Dutch-woman-PUNCHES-man-beating-donkey-Egyptian-tourist-site-chases-whip.html

An animal-loving Dutch vigilante who attacked a man she saw beating a donkey in Egypt is now facing a lawsuit.

Astonishing footage shows expat Joke Van der Post punching the animal’s handler before chasing him with a whip as he tries to flee.

In the heartbreaking video – which has since gone viral – the donkey kicks out in agony as it is repeatedly lashed while tethered to a wall on the outskirts of Cairo.

Appalled by the horrific cruelty, the 47-year-old runs at the man before pinning him against a wall and striking him several times shouting, ‘You think you’re f****** normal.’

As the man tries to run away Ms Van der Post, who manages a veterinary practice called the Good Karma Sanctuary, grabs a whip from another donkey handler and chases him off into the distance.

The man filed a police complaint accusing Ms Van der Post of assault and claiming appearing in the viral video has caused him ‘psychological harm’, local media reports.”

[Daily Mail]

Treatment of animals in Egypt is often very bad, and most of the people there are cowardly wastes of space.

It is interesting to note that not only do Europeans run all or almost all of the animal welfare hospitals etc in Egypt, but also most of the efforts devoted to helping the Egyptian children etc born with various handicaps. The locals (I was told when I was there for a few months in the 1990s) regard such accidents or incidents of birth as a curse from God, and so need not be addressed at all. Backward Islamic or quasi-Islamic beliefs.

It is also interesting to note that modern Egypt was run best under the European influence of c.1860-1952 and in particular the years between the First and Second World Wars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Egypt.

In Alexandria, that time is known as the International Period. Far more civilized than Alexandria as it now is.

The Egyptian in that Daily Mail report is typical. Willing to hurt a defenceless donkey, but running away when a European woman confronted him. Pity he was not himself whipped.

I could tell of a number of instances when I saw that Egyptian coward/bully mentality. There are exceptions, and some of the Egyptians are better than that, but I think a small minority.

Look at the pathetic Egyptian Army. As the old joke has it, the only time (in the past few thousand years) when the Egyptians won a military victory was in the second act of Aida.

Really, it has to be admitted that Africa generally, and including North Africa , should be under civilized European rule.

[Egypt and Israel/Palestine etc at night, seen from the International Space Station in 2010; Nile Valley, Cairo (the biggest concentration of light), and Alexandria to the Northwest, with Israel/Palestine also prominent to the Northeast]

See also:

Tweets seen

The land of freedom” (supposedly)…

If Sarah Vine (Daily Mail scribbler, and ex-wife of Israel/Jewish lobby puppet Michael Gove) is not Jew or part-Jew, I’ll eat my hat. Still, she apparently owns at least one book by David Irving, so the question remains at least somewhat open.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Vine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Irving

As for Seldon, as a well-known writer, historian etc, he should know that the USA lost its moral authority long ago, certainly by the time it became a “tail wags dog” state controlled by Israeli and other Jewish and Zionist interests under the two Bush presidents and Clinton, Obama, and Biden. You only have to think of the torture and perversity inflicted at Abu Ghraib, Bagram, Kabul, Guantanamo, and elsewhere.

Many of them will also be adjudged as having deserved to lose their heads, too. Let history judge (?).

Thank God.

Wall. Squad. End.

Wall. Squad. End.

Reform UK, Labour, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election

The most recent opinion poll about nationwide political sympathies:

Well, that poll (with notional LibDem vote around 12%, and Greens on 10%) would result in a Commons with 198 Lab MPs, 187 Reform, and 156 Con (51 Libdems, 27 SNP, 4 Greens). The only possible government on those numbers would be a Reform/Con arrangement of some sort, having a majority of 17, and a working majority slightly bigger. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html.

The polls are variable at present, but all tell the same story— Reform UK either the most popular party or a close second. Bearing in mind that Reform voters are said to be more motivated to actually vote than Lab or Con voters (and that fewer Lab voters vote by post, Con and Reform voters tending —so far— to be older and, by reason of that, less healthy), the real picture could well be even better for Reform.

I see the reality as being that at least a plurality of voters are absolutely sick of what Britain is becoming, and are therefore clutching at the Reform straw even though, in many cases, underwhelmed by both Reform and Farage. The voters who support Reform want to hit out at, and perhaps bury, both Lab and Con.

This should make the Runcorn and Helsby by-election even more interesting. The betting market (which I have found an unreliable guide to by-election results) has Reform as strongly odds-on favourite to win (about 1/3, with Labour around 5/2, and Conservatives around 8/1; there are 15 candidates in all). https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.241434500.

I think and have blogged that Reform will smash it, but I concede that there are a number of factors in play. The constituency has Runcorn town as main voter pool, but even that is over 90% white, so the George Galloway vehicle, Workers’ Party, will probably come in 4th or 5th.

Turnout may or may not be low; if it is, Reform will benefit, probably. I wonder how many former Labour voters will turn out to vote for a nominally “Labour” government that has cheated pensioners, is intent on cheating and bullying the sick, disabled and unemployed, and which is at the same time throwing money at “Ukraine” (the brutal Zionist dictatorship in Kiev) and foreign aid recipients. All that, and while also presiding over ever-worse migration invasion, and the consequent street crime now seen everywhere.

The “experts” are still saying that the by-election will be close between Reform and Labour, but Labour seems less credible with every passing day. No less than 700 migrant-invaders landed on the beaches of England yesterday alone!

The Conservative Party under the Nigerian woman is a busted flush. In any case, in 2024 the Cons only scored 16% in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency.

Any 2024 Conservative Party voters who want to stick it to Labour have no choice but to vote Reform, tactically.

This by-election will be a pure test of the popularity of both Starmer-stein’s fake “Labour” government and of Reform UK. Its importance is huge.

Late tweets seen

[“It is worth remembering at this time that the Tories who are now attacking two-tier Britain and gender gobbledygook are the same party that: -implemented and mainstreamed the Equality Act -commissioned the David Lammy review which set the stage for the Sentencing Council guidelines -commissioned other major reviews that mainstreamed the idea of ‘positive action’ in the workplace that’s now driving anti-white racism -failed to roll back the public sector equality duty and if anything turbo-charged it -promised to “streamline and de-medicalise” the process of getting gender recognition certificates -allowed MPs and ministers from Maria Miller to Gillian Keegan to mainstream gender identity What we need in this country is not more of the same but root and branch REFORM of the entire Blairite legacy —everything from the Equality Act to the Human Rights Act to the European Convention on Human Rights A total reset.”]

I should not like to be in his boots…

Late music

14 thoughts on “Diary Blog, 16 April 2025, including thoughts about cruelty to animals in Egypt, about Reform’s chances of having nearly 200 MPs elected, and about the Runcorn and Helsby by-election”

  1. I suppose the non-entity ‘leading’ the Conservative Party will be pleased today. Her continual ranting about a 0.5% minority has seemingly paid off. The only problem is that most voters do not care about the subject and at any rate it was HER so-called Conservative Party that helped to create the ‘gender ideology’ issue in 2013 when they passed same-sex marriage or gender-neutral marriage as it should be called. If you remove what was the basis of an important societal institution ie the complementarity of two distinct genders ie male and female then do not be surprised if ‘gender ideology’ rears its head a decade later. Passing gender-neutral marriage effectively made the law say there were only humans and differrent genders did not exist.

    Is she going to be honest enough to aplogise on behalf of her party for helping to create and make powerful ‘gender ideology’? I think she should.

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  2. I think Labour will narrowly win in Runcorn and Helmsby. Apart from the posher areas like Tatton (a constituency that really does earn the moniker of Cheshire being ‘the Surrey of the North’) the county tends to follow Merseyside in its political leanings. Over the last thirty years or so that has meant becoming stronger and stronger for Labour and weaker for the Tories and others.

    From looking at the electoral results on Wikipedia for the Halton Council wards which make-up a large part of the Runcorn and Helmsby seat they are very strong for Labour even in bad years for the Labour Party nationally. It seems as if the Labour voters in Runcorn are less likely to actively switch to other parties compared to other seats in the North West when they are dissapointed with the party and so they just abstain.

    If Reform are going to win this by-election they will need quite a few active switchers to them from Labour and to squeeze the Tory vote.

    The national prediction websites like electoral calculus are still saying the seat will stay Labour with the national polls being what they are. It is Labour’s 49th safest seat so it will be hard for Reform UK to win it. I would not discount the possibility of Reform winning but it will be tough unless there are some specific local issues they can use or they go ahead of Labour in the national polls. Runcorn and Helmsby would be one of the last Labour seats to fall if a general election were to be held soon. Labour are pretty entrenched there.

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    1. John:
      I hear what you say, and you may well be right, but my instinct says that Reform will do this.

      I agree with you that 2024 Labour voters, many of them, may abstain rather than vote Reform,but I think that opinion polls seem to be saying that many will switch to Reform at the by-election. One important fact is that it *is* a by-election, too.

      Labour scored just over 50% in 2024.

      If a quarter of the 2024 Lab voters abstain (or protest-vote Green or LibDem), and a quarter move to Reform, that leaves Labour with about 25% of the total by-election vote. Few if any voters who voted elsewhere in 2024 will vote Labour at the by-election.

      Many former Labour loyalists must be appalled at what Starmer-stein, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall etc are doing.

      Reform scored over 18% in 2024. If it can keep at the very least that 18%, and if another 12.5% of the 2024 vote (i.e. a quarter of 2024 Lab vote) switches to Reform, that puts Reform on about 30%. That alone could be enough to swing it. If, in addition, half of the 2024 Conservative Party vote (16% of all votes) vote tactically or whatever for Reform, that might put the Reform by-election vote as high as 38% of all votes. That is my thinking, anyway.

      Only 15 days left, so we shall soon know.

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      1. Yes, it is a by-election and therefore very different from a general election. Even if Reform UK were to win we would still have a Labour government with a vast, unearned majority so the Labour voters in the seat will not be putting at risk the survival of the Labour government should they decide to vote Reform UK on May 1st.

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  3. Yes, the seat will be won on a vote share of between 30% to 40% with my best guess being about 35% to 37%. A decent proportion of Labour and Tory switchers will be needed for Reform to win. The Tories have no chance of winning so if the Tory voters really want to help the seat elect a non Labour MP they should vote Reform.

    Reform are going to need decent vote shares in the Runcorn wards and get good votes in the more Tory inclined
    Chester and Cheshire West council wards like Frodsham.

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  4. As your story of the Albanian drug dealer once again demonstrates Britain is ‘the world’s dustbin’ and has been far too long under Labour AND fake ‘Conservative’ Party governments. This nedds to END. PERMANENTLY. Apart from being ‘squeegee merchants’ and drug dealers do Albanians occupy their time doing anything else?

    There is no need to deport the drug dealer though. Just hang him as in the very well governed country of Singapore (otherwise known as ‘Hang ‘Em High’ City/Executions Inc/’Disneyland With The Death Penalty’):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singapore

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_Drugs_Act(Singapore)

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime

    Or, if one were to feel generous, a 99 year prison sentence as in the great state of Texas:

    https://www.messenger-news.com/2018/02/17/palestine-man-sentenced-99-years-tdcj

    https://www.cnb.gov.sg

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  5. The noose for Albanian, other foreign and British drug dealers:

    https://www.capitalpunishmentuk.org

    Or, we could try other methods such as the firing squad as used in Utah, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Idaho and South Carolina:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Execution_by_firing_squad

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_the_United_States

    It is a not too inhumane method though unfortunately a bit gruesome and overly bloody. Still, as the Bible says, ‘Whoever sheds man’s blood, by man his blood shall be shed for in the image of God made He man’:

    https://gotquestions.org/death-penalty.html

    Firing squad executions are very quick, the prisioner does not require extensive or time consuming preparations for the sentence to be carried out and it is rarely botched. It is also a traditional punishment for some traitors so It would be an appropriate method for executing the likes of ‘Sir’ Two Tier Keir and company.

    https://deathpenaltyinfo.org

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  6. Well, Reform UK are a flawed party but they are better than the globalist anti-British open traitors of Labour and fake libertarian globalist ‘Conservatives’ so I hope Reform UK wins. Voting Labour or ‘Tory’ is akin to banging your head against a brick wall for several times and then the next time you do it expecting you will not get a sore head.

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  7. I would normally be against the use of the ‘ultimate punishment’ for rape and even gang rape because although they are serious crimes (particularly the more horrific gang rape form of it) they are not as serious as murder or drug dealing which is so often a contributing factor behind murders and other crimes.

    That being said I can understand why the countries many of our gang rapists originate from such as Pakistan and Bangladesh do use the death penalty for gang rape.

    Rapists and particularly gang rapists should receive lengthy prison sentences.

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  8. As gang rape is worse than a ‘normal’ rape those who are found guilty of it should get an additional enhancement of prison time to the sentence for ‘normal’ rape.

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  9. I remember making the same point once, that is, most animals shelters and animal hospitals outisde the Western world have been created and are run by White men or women. Is extremely rare for people of other races to be kind to animals.

    For what I have read (travellers diaries and letters spanning two centuries) most Egyptians are horrible people who treat animals in a cruel manner.

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    1. Claudius:
      I do not, so to speak, tar all non-whites with the same brush (and of course there are plenty of Europeans who are unkind or even brutal or cruel to animals) but, overall, looking at the big picture, that is so. Europeans, overall, do take more care of other creatures than the other and, if you like, lesser race-groups.

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      1. Yes, I agree with you; I have seen horrendous cases of cruelty towards animals committed by White people but I would say that those cases are the exception to the rule while among coloured races, that is the opposite. In all cases people who commit acts of cruelty against animals should be put to death, they are monsters beyond redemption. Someone who experiments pleasure torturing a defenceless animal i as vile as the one who enjoys doing the same to a human being. They shoud be executed in the most painful way possible.

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