A few more thoughts about the Gorton and Denton by-election
The opinion polls suggest that the contest will be between Reform UK and the Green Party. A few commentators are still saying that Labour might have a residual chance. It seems to me that this by-election is different than most —not all— previous ones, in that there is likely to be a split on racial-cultural lines.
Reports suggest that the Muslim, mainly Pakistani, element of the electorate will vote en bloc, and for the Green Party. They have been turned off Labour by reason of the fact that the present government consists almost entirely of Labour Friends of Israel members. The voters will have noticed Starmer-stein’s slavishly pro-Israel policies, and his many pro-Jewish gestures.
The Green Party is now led by a Jew, but one who is supposedly anti-Zionist and not favourable to the Israeli state. The Greens also favour a near-“open borders” immigration policy.
However, Muslims are less than a third of the entire electorate in that constituency. About 30%. Persons identifying as “Christian”, presumably mostly white British, with some of Irish or other origins, are over 40% of the electorate. Apparently, some 27% do not identify by reference to religion; I am guessing that almost all of those are white English/British too. In other words, it may be that about 68% of the electorate is white English/British or at least European.
So assuming that most of the Muslims are going to vote Green, that still leaves nearly 70% of voters who may also vote Green, but are more likely to back Reform, or go elsewhere (or not bother to vote).
My guess at this stage is that rather few English/British (etc) voters will vote Labour. Only a few per cent of that group, probably; maybe 10% or, at outside, 15%.
So if it is true that Labour has lost most of the Muslim/Pakistani votes, and also most of its former English/British voter support (after Labour’s disastrous first 18 months in office), one has to conclude that Labour is very much on the back foot, despite the fact that, at GE 2024, Labour hoovered up over half the votes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorton_and_Denton#Elections_in_the_2020s.
The Conservative and LibDem candidates have no chance in this constituency. A few minor parties are standing, including George Galloway’s Workers’ Party. One can never entirely write off Galloway, but if he stands (or another, on his behalf), that will hit the Green and Labour votes, but not (at all) that of Reform UK.
In the circumstances, it seems to me that Matt Goodwin and Reform have every chance, but it might yet be closer than many think between Reform and the Greens.
Tweets seen
Trump is considering a range of military scenarios against Iran proposed by the Pentagon, including raids and special forces operations, but remains open to diplomatic solutions and negotiations with Tehran, The New York Times reported:https://t.co/feLwB4naQwpic.twitter.com/SxhNSVZsWU
[“Bus Driver Loses Unfair Dismissal Case After Stopping Thief
Last updated 11 minutes ago
On June 25, 2024, 62-year-old driver Mark Hehir pursued the thief on foot from his route 206 bus in north-west London, leaving the vehicle unattended briefly. When the man returned and swung first, Hehir punched back once, an action police called proportionate, but Metroline fired him for breaching safety protocols on assault, vehicle safety, and company reputation. An employment tribunal upheld the dismissal as fair last week, even as MPs and a petition with over 9,000 signatures demand his reinstatement amid public outrage.
This story is a summary of posts on X and may evolve over time. Grok can make mistakes, verify its outputs.“]
– Border force interception: £2,750 – Three months in a hotel: £13,500 – Murder investigation and prosecution: £600,000 – Court proceedings and legal defence: £100,000 – Cost of 29y imprisonment: £1,572,786
Whereas a wall, a squad, and an end would have taken care of the matter for the cost of about 20 rounds of 7.62, plus a Guinness and a bag of chips for each member of the squad.
This is Emma. She spends her days helping people from Gorton and Denton who have fallen into drug and alcohol addiction. I won’t go into details but this work is very close to my heart. People like Emma are the real heroes. She’s voting Reform 👍 pic.twitter.com/q13oII7Kyq
In 2025, Ukrainian armed formations launched more than 130,000 munitions on Russian civilian facilities, an increase of over 40,000 from 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador at Large on Kiev’s War Crimes Rodion Miroshnik said at a briefing:https://t.co/VOppBBmVIzpic.twitter.com/wsbSry0j7b
As I blogged previously, in relation to both the USA election and Labour’s present situation in the UK.
The difference lies in the fact that the people of the UK had 14 years of inept “Conservative” misgovernment 2010-2024, and the voters wanted the Cons out, at almost any price.
Having said that, and as previously noted several times on the blog, out of every 20 eligible voters in the UK at GE 2024, and in rough figures, about 8 were so disenchanted with the whole political process, with society, and with the political choices available, that they voted with their feet (did not vote at all).
For me, the most significant figures would be the 8 out of 20 who did not vote, and the 2 that voted Reform UK.
Obviously, Labour, Starmer-Labour, has little real popular mandate, particularly in view of the fact that Labour’s “4 out of 20” or “4 out of 12” would have included those who, faced with a Lab-Con fight in many constituencies, voted Lab to do down the Cons; the same, in reverse, may also be true, though to a lesser extent; those who voted Con to prevent Lab from winning. Negative voting.
There is at present, or as yet, no sign of a real social-national party emerging in the UK.
I think that Matt Goodwin may be right, i.e. that Reform UK will emerge as the real opposition to Labour in the public mind.
Reform UK now has 5 MPs, though all are rather underwhelming. Reform should of course (were the electoral system not both illogical and unfair) have had about 93 MPs, not the mere 5 awarded to them under FPTP.
It is ridiculous that a party, Reform UK, can get 14.29% of the popular vote and end up with 5 MPs, and that another party, the LibDems, can be voted for by only 12.22%, yet end up with 72 MPs! That does offend the still quite strong sense of fairness and fair play in this country.
Come to that, Labour itself captured only 33.7% of the popular vote, not greatly more than double the vote of Reform UK, yet now has 411 MPs.
A pure proportional-voting system would have given Labour 219 MPs, the Conservative Party 154, Reform UK 93, LibDems 79, and Green Party 42.
In other words, under pure proportional voting, on GE 2024 vote figures, the UK would still be under a Labour Party government, but it would be a minority one.
In practice, 320 MPs give a UK government a Commons majority. Under the proportional-voting scenario, and in order to get over the line, Labour would have been required to compact with either the Conservative Party, or with Reform UK, or with both the LibDems and Greens. I suppose that that last choice would have been the most likely— Labour with LibDem and Green support.
Having said that, were there a fairer and more proportional voting system in the UK, voters would be able to cast their votes knowing that, unless they were to vote Monster Raving Loony Party or the like, their votes would almost certainly result in at least one MP of their preference getting elected. On GE 2024 figures, even George Galloway’s party, Workers’ Party, would have had 4 or 5 MPs in the Commons (0.73% of the popular vote, 210,194 actual votes).
There is little doubt in my mind that, were the UK voting system fairer, most UK voters would not be voting for the System or “legacy” parties. Not only would Reform UK surge forward, but a real social national party might be able to capture both the imagination and the votes of the British people. That, of course, is why System politicians want to retain the present voting set-up.
Tweets seen
What a beautiful country we used to have, before diversity and multiculturalism destroyed it 🏴 pic.twitter.com/quoSPIGpGs
That is about Simon Myerson, Leeds-based barrister and one of the “CAA” and “UKLFI” Jew-Zionist crowd, who was sacked as a Recorder (p/t judge) several months ago as a consequence of his extremely unpleasant and persistent social media trolling.
According to Myerson, the terrible slaughter visited upon the people of Gaza is, “legally”, not “genocide”, presumably because not all Gazans have been killed or wounded (“only” 150,000+, i.e. about a tenth of the population), and because the Israelis at least claim not to intend eliminating all Gazans or other Palestinian Arabs from Israel/Palestine.
Well, could not a similar claim, mutatis mutandis, be made by Germany about the Europe-resident Jews of the early 1940s?
Not my area of law (when I had “areas of law”). In any case, my own view of the Gaza slaughter is not based on some “dancing on a pin” legal sophistry. I say, just look at what the Israelis have been doing, and what they continue to do. Whether it is called “genocide” or not is irrelevant, really.
I have noticed that some of the non-Jews (who are pro-Jew-Zionist or, maybe better said, pro-Israel), and some of those who are part-Jew (what the Reich termed Mischlingen) but Zionist, are actually more fanatical than many of those who are fully-Jewish. Strange. That phenomenon has been covered on the blog, on this very popular page: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/07/18/theyre-coming-to-take-me-away-ha-ha/.
“A public meeting descended into chaos after locals were told hundreds of illegal migrants staying at a hotel could soon be getting access to ‘free private healthcare’.
The bombshell accusation was made during a fiery debate led by members of Trafford Council, in Greater Manchester, sparking an outcry of anger from local residents.”
Funny to see decorative BBC presenter Martine Croxall put in her place by Galloway. He made the point, inter alia, and which I had not remembered, that boundary changes will mean that the constituency will disappear for the next general election.
As for Ms. Croxall, despite the questions she asked in the interview, and that Galloway thought favoured the Labour Party, if she herself does not habitually vote Conservative, I’ll eat my hat.
Gorgeous George: Labour is in existential crisis in the North because nobody knows what Labour is or what it stands for ..and they don’t like what they see. I regard the Labour Party as jackals in sheep’s clothing. I want to tear the sheep’s clothing away.#BatleyAndSpenpic.twitter.com/wbbAhrA9Is
The final day of campaigning is taking place in Batley and Spen before voters go to the polls tomorrow. They’re being asked to choose an MP to replace @TracyBrabin, who left the post to become the first Mayor of West Yorkshire. Polling stations will be open from 7am-10pm pic.twitter.com/5RJsGcTLML
Telling how the @UKLabour brand is now so toxic & doomed in #BatleyAndSpen that the Labour candidate, Kim Leadbeater, is not even mentioning her party allegiance on her own literature, just two days before polling pic.twitter.com/0OFJDmrqlJ
Labour MP for over 20 years and a Labour council have brought Batley and Spen to its knees. Kim Leadbeater is actually campaigning about issues caused by the Labour council.
As a outsider who has never been to the area, I cannot see how electing a silly ignorant woman like Kim Leadbeater could do anything at all for the people of Batley and Spen. She is just a ventriloquist’s dummy yapping about “magic money trees” and “diversity”. She is not even a very good dummy. Dishonest, too.
Chance of holding Batley and Spen as low as 5%, say key Labour figures | Byelections | The Guardian LABOUR SAYS CHANCE OF WINNING BATLEY IS 5% ~ so why vote for Labour or their chums the Tories ! ? https://t.co/vjUPs9uuyW
“Everyone will be watching Batley and Spen,” said one backbencher, who said a poor result for Labour could suggest “there’s potentially another 20-50 seats across the north that we are going to lose”.
Exactly. The reason is not “Starmer” (poor leader, and a Jewish-lobby puppet, though he is), still less “Corbyn”, but (as I have blogged repeatedly) because there is now no reason for the Labour Party to exist. What the English people need (but do not consciously know that they both need and want) is social nationalism in a credible and powerful form. It does not presently exist.
The small pseudo-nationalist parties standing at Batley and Spen are not what is required at all. In fact, in most respects, and leaving aside the pro-Islamist element, Galloway’s “Workers’ Party” is closer to credible/powerful social nationalism than is the Anne Marie Waters vehicle “For Britain”, or Jayda Fransen.
Part of the problem is that the Zionist-controlled msm label anything akin to social nationalism as “far right” and/or “neo-Nazi”, which are —more or less— meaningless labels. The public are frightened or offput by such propaganda, of course.
The top reason given for not voting Labour in Hartlepool was Sir Keir Starmer’s so called leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. Many in #BatleyAndSpen agree. #StarmerOut#Newsnightpic.twitter.com/JjYCkVl3JP
Note that only 2% would not vote Labour because of perceived “anti-Semitism”. 2%. Meaning that 98% of voters are not interested in the Jew-Zionist lobby’s whining. Corbyn did far better than Starmer as Labour leader, despite the basically Jewish-controlled or influenced msm running a 4-year hate campaign against him.
I would go further, and aver that people in the UK would vote for an openly “anti-Semitic” party if it were also anti-Islamist and if, also, its other policies, leadership, and organization were credible and powerful.
As for the by-election at Batley and Spen, even if Labour manages, which I doubt, to retain the seat, that would not change Labour’s long-term strategic decline.
Freedom is on the line in the Batley and Spen by-election. We cannot become a society in which mobs can force teachers into hiding. But that is what happened at Batley Grammar. And Labour and the Tories are ducking the issue, writes @OlliePurserSDPhttps://t.co/9HEyiiHXVz
Import backward populations and you import their politics and their social issues. Not just Pakistanis and similar nationalities. Look at the Jews too. Yes, they may send their offspring to Eton, and/or to Oxford or Cambridge…a small but strategically-placed special-interest group.
Reminder of what “New Labour” was…and much of Labour still is
A poster from a few years ago, but Yvette Cooper is still there, still an MP, still getting paid (more now, about £85,000, plus huge expenses); she also grabs more by being Chair of a Commons select committee; and her Bilderberg-attending husband, Ed Balls, also once an MP, is coining money in business. They own buy-to-let properties as well. Parasites.
Oh, and she still supports importation of as many blacks and browns as possible, and has even said that British families should welcome the invaders into their homes (though she and Balls have three homes and numerous rental properties yet have not asked any migrant invaders to stay as their guests…).
Oh…nearly forgot: Yvette Cooper is yet another Labour Friends of Israel member, just like Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy etc…
Typical of what Labour now is…i.e. a pack of parasites and hypocrites.
More tweets
Do you support this without qualification too, @Keir_Starmer? When will you realise that it is highly inflammatory to not qualify what the limits of your Zionism is? Many atrocities have been done in the name of Zionism! #StarmerOut#BatleyAndSpen
Starmer has said quite openly that he puts Israel first, before the people of the UK. He has said that he supports Zionism without qualification. Israel is a state founded on terrorism, deceit, ethnic cleansing etc. It is a rogue state. It buys or otherwise suborns politicians in countries such as France, the UK, USA etc.
Below, former Labour MP, Joan Ryan, hearing from Israeli intelligence official, Shai Masot, about how he has a one-million-pound slush fund from Israel, in order to buy British MPs:
Anyone, whether at Batley and Spen or elsewhere, thinking of voting Labour, should watch the above videos. True, the Conservative Party is equally infested. More widely, the UK as a whole is infested.
Labour members in the North of England are even more critical. If he loses in Batley and Spen, 50% of northern Labour members want him to quit, while 42% want him to stay. 3/8
Younger Labour members are the least confident in the party’s prospects of winning – 90% of 18-24 year olds think Labour is unlikely to win the next election. 6/8
I notice that the bookmakers have the Conservatives even more strongly odds-on than in previous days. About 2/9. Labour is a poor second, around 7/2. As for Galloway, about 14/1. Having said that, betting odds reflect national sentiment. In a discrete and quite small area such as the constituency in question, the contest may look very different.
It may be that I am wrong to think that the result will be Con, Galloway, Lab, in that order, but that is still my feeling.
I notice that social media is awash with tweets from the Labour support machine. Not necessarily relevant.
“”If we can’t win white working class voters in Hartlepool and if we lose South Asian voters in Batley, this raises the question of where in the North can we ever win?“” [Labour Party official, from BBC] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57639970.
Put another way, if Labour cannot win Northern England seats, and has already abandoned Scotland, where can it win? Only in parts of London and Birmingham where there are large numbers of West Indians, public service workers, and Twitter twits?
Ian Robert Millard 