[This article will be updated as necessary, with updates posted at the foot of the main article]
The Batley and Spen by-election is set down for 1 July 2021. Nominations are open until the late afternoon of 7 June 2021, three days from time of writing, but the main parties and some others have already declared. It is likely that any further candidatures will either be crank or joke.
Batley and Spen was created in 1983. There have been several boundary changes over the years. One particular Conservative Party MP held the seat until 1997, succeeded by a Labour Party MP who held the seat until he retired in 2015.
Batley and Spen area voted about 60% for Brexit.
The constituency remained Labour, with Jo Cox as MP from 2015 to 2016 when she was assassinated. The subsequent by-election was rigged, in that the System parties agreed that Labour should put up a candidate unopposed by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties. Pathetic UKIP followed suit.
The result was that Labour secured nearly 86% of the vote. All other candidates lost their deposits. Turnout was very low, not much more than 25%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Batley_and_Spen_by-election.
The percentage of the vote won by Tracy Brabin, the TV actress selected by Labour in 2016, declined steadily from that 86% high: 55.5% in 2017, and 42.7% in 2019. Now, in true Blairite fashion, Tracy Brabin has jumped ship in order to become Mayor of West Yorkshire, a newly-created and rather powerful role which also pays rather more than an MP’s salary— £105,000 plus expenses [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_West_Yorkshire].
It must be a possibility that Tracy Brabin could see support for Labour sliding, and weighed up the odds.
Parts of the constituency have high non-white populations (mainly Indians and Pakistanis), while others are still largely English. I have been unable to discover exact proportions for the constituency as a whole.
The Conservative Party candidate is one Ryan Stephenson, a councillor in Leeds (10 miles to the northeast); Stephenson is also the Chairman of the West Yorkshire Conservative Party, and a director of an academy trust. https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/conservatives-choose-leeds-councillor-ryan-stephenson-as-candidate-for-batley-and-spen-by-election-3243396.
Labour is represented by Kim Leadbeater, the sister of assassinated MP Jo Cox. She was not even a member of the Labour Party until fairly recently, and the usual rule (that members of the Labour Party have to have been members for a year until they can be selected as candidates) was waived in her case.
Ms. Leadbeater is apparently a former lecturer in physical health, who also works as a personal trainer, but spends much of her time working for the Jo Cox Foundation.
When I had a Twitter account (a pack of Jews had me expelled in 2018), I tweeted rather extensively about the Jo Cox Foundation. My conclusions were unfavourable. I now notice that there were, in 2019 (when accounts were last published), six paid employees, and the salary cost of those six was around a quarter of a million pounds altogether.
The candidature of Ms. Leadbeater smacks of desperation on the part of Labour. They seem to be aiming, five years after the assassination of Jo Cox, for a sympathy vote.
Ms. Leadbeater, like most of the other candidates, is local or at least from a nearby area, which is perceived to be important.
The LibDems have chosen as candidate a LibDem councillor, Tom Gordon, whose council seat is in Knottingley, 20 miles east of Batley.
The Green Party has selected a rugby player, 29-y-o Ross Peltier [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Peltier], who seems to be the only non-white in the contest.
A relatively new entrant to politics is the Yorkshire Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_Party], which came third (behind Lab and Con) in the 2021 West Yorkshire Mayoral Election. Its vote share was 9.7%, though, only narrowly defeating the Green Party (9.2%); there were 7 candidates in toto.
Yorkshire Party has a number of councillors in Yorkshire.
The well-known speaker and former MP, George Galloway, is standing, under the aegis of the Workers’ Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Galloway; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers_Party_of_Britain.
Two “nationalist” candidates, both from tiny parties, and neither with a good track record, are contesting the by-election: Anne Marie Waters [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Marie_Waters] of For Britain, and Jayda Fransen [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayda_Fransen] of British Freedom Party but standing as Independent because the Electoral Commission has as yet not “approved” BFP to stand in elections (so much for “democracy” etc…).
Neither Fransen nor Waters has much chance of even retaining a deposit. Jayda Fransen has made a short YouTube video about her Batley and Spen campaign:
I have blogged about both Anne Marie Waters and Jayda Fransen in the past: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2020/09/11/diary-blog-11-september-2020-including-a-few-notes-about-jayda-fransen-and-her-new-british-freedom-party/; and see also https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/04/04/a-look-at-some-uk-political-and-social-realities/.
Batley and Spen by-election: analysis and provisional prediction
This is probably going to be between the two main System parties, but there are complications.
In 2019, Labour won on 42.7% of the vote, with the Conservative Party second on 36%. The LibDems, on 4.7%, were beaten into fourth by a new entrant, Heavy Woollen District Independents [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Woollen_District_Independents], which scored 12.2%. The candidate for HWDI was not the leader, who is or was an ex-UKIP member called Lukic, who himself had scored 2% as Independent in the 2017 election at Batley and Spen.
It seems that HWDI is standing no candidate this time, but there is still time to declare, so that is not certain. I cannot say whether those who voted HWDI might now transfer their vote to Yorkshire Party. Perhaps.
I give little credence to the two minor British nationalist candidates, whose votes would probably have been tiny anyway, even had they not split whatever vote each might have had without close competition. Both are anti-Islam (or anti-Islamist), both are pro-Israel to some degree, neither has achieved much politically, though I commend anyone who keeps trying in the conditions of State repression, Jew-Zionist conspiracy and migration-invasion prevalent in the UK today.
I am not expecting either of those two ladies to score as high as 5% in Batley and Spen, or to get 5% even between the two of them. If either does retain her deposit, then she will have done well, indeed very well.
George Galloway? I hope that my bias against him does not prevent objectivity (he tweeted negative comments about me on Twitter, years ago, and also blocked my then Twitter account). He does not accept that old-style socialism died in and after 1989, and he is as outdated as the Battleship Potemkin.
I am unsure as to what level of support Galloway has among Muslims in Batley and Spen. Some, probably. All the same, if he scores 5%+ and retains his deposit, that would count as a major victory for him.
The LibDems likewise. They will be hoping, at best, for retention of their deposit, but I would expect them to end up with less than 5%.
Yorkshire Party? Perhaps the joker in this pack. I have no way of assessing their chances, except by reference to that mayoral election recently. 9.7% was a good result for a relatively new party (founded 2014 as “Yorkshire First”). They are very unlikely to win this by-election; the question is, if they do get a high-ish vote (over 5%), which of the two main System parties will be most damaged?
The Labour candidate is a mark of Labour desperation. Someone only there because her sister was assassinated (and later canonized, or at least beatified, by the System and msm).
The constituency having a fairly high non-white population (no exact figures found, but around a third), Labour’s expectations must be to win between a third and a half of the vote as a whole. Labour is now largely a black/brown party in terms of its voters; public service workers account for much of the remainder.
If the white population of Batley and Spen has turned away from Labour, even if not voting Conservative, then Labour has a problem.
My present feeling is that the Conservative Party candidate might win this. Labour is just not what most people want at present. The recent YouGov poll suggesting that about 37% to 23% think that Boris-idiot would make a better PM than Keir Starmer is stunning, even though I myself despise “Boris”. Likewise, latest polling on “Westminster voting intention” puts the Cons around 40% and Labour around 30%.
Ironically, the fact that the Labour candidate at Batley and Spen has not been a member of the Labour Party for very long might actually help her with the voters! On the other hand, voters may feel that, if Labour nationally is sliding, and unlikely to form a government any time soon (if ever), then they may as well vote in as MP someone who might be listened to by Government, and thus help the area more. Just a thought.
Much will depend on turnout; also on whether either or both of Galloway and the Yorkshire Party do well, and on whose votes those two take. Galloway will be aiming largely at the Muslim vote; as to Yorkshire Party, hard to say, but maybe they aim to capture white formerly Labour voters. If that is so, then Labour is again in trouble.
The Labour Party vote in Batley and Spen has been eroding steadily since the rigged 2016 by-election. Tracy Brabin jumped ship because she feared defeat at the next general election.
My feeling at the moment is that the Conservative Party might win this, but that it could either be very close, or it could be a total rout for Labour. My head says the former, but my heart is screaming for the latter.
Update, 6 June 2021
“John Rentoul@JohnRentoul Paul Halloran, the 3rd placed candidate in Batley & Spen in 2019, standing aside in by-election – boost for the Tories“
The reference there is to Paul Halloran, the candidate at Batley and Spen of the “Heavy Woollen District Independents” in the 2019 General Election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s. He scored 12.2%, a very creditable result. I mentioned the fact in my blog post of yesterday about the upcoming Batley and Spen by-election (1 July 2021): https://ianrobertmillard.org/2021/06/04/the-batley-and-spen-by-election-2021/.
It seems that the said Halloran has now joined the no-chance Reclaim Party set up by the actor Laurence Fox, who now stands for free speech (except, it seems, where Jews disapprove or are mentioned). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurence_Fox.
Halloran, Fox, and Reclaim Party have issued a statement: https://mailchi.mp/a466726a0fd3/media-statement-the-reclaim-party-and-paul-halloran?e=d4fb63896d.
It is clear that Reclaim Party will never amount to anything. As far as the Batley and Spen by-election in July is concerned, the stand-aside will obviously help the Conservative candidate, but what is unknown is by how many votes. Halloran received 12.2% of the vote in 2019, true, but Fox, in the recent London Mayoral Election, only 1.9%. I suppose that it might be surmised that Halloran, had he stood, might have garnered 5% of the by-election vote, possibly 10%, and maybe even 15%+, but the fact is that that is pure speculation. We do not know.
What we do know is that the above news is probably a blow for Labour. A few percent might decide this contest.
Update, 7 June 2021
The tweet below gives an idea of the local government situation within the Batley and Spen constituency area:
Says it all…
Kirklees Council has a plurality of Labour councillors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirklees_Council.
Update, 7 June 2021
The Green Party has dumped its candidate at Batley and Spen: https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/19354923.ross-peltier-ex-bulls-star-by-election-candidacy-revoked/. Another candidate will be selected, apparently. I thought that that was impossible after close of nominations (which was late today), but maybe there are exceptions.
Update, 8 June 2021
Seems that I was right, and that Green Party will now not be represented: https://news.sky.com/story/batley-and-spen-sixteen-candidates-to-contest-by-election-on-1-july-12327304.
The non-candidature of the Green Party will probably be a minor help to Labour; however, Green Party only had a 1.3% vote share in 2019.
A host of minor and crank candidates came forward on the last day of the nomination period (7 June 2021):
- Alliance for Green Socialism [https://green-socialist.com/];
- Christian Peoples Alliance [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Peoples_Alliance], which was founded in 1999, has won a handful of local council seats, and has contested a few Westminster seats, never reaching 1% of votes cast;
- English Democrats [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Democrats], founded 2002, which has perhaps 2,000 members and has had limited local election success, but which has never scored as high as 5% in any Westminster election;
- Official Monster Raving Loony Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Monster_Raving_Loony_Party], founded 1982; usual Westminster vote is below 1%;
- Heritage Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kurten#Heritage_Party], founded 2020. Came fourth in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election (1.6% vote);
- Social Democratic Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK,_1990%E2%80%93present)], founded 1990 in this form. Has attempted numerous Westminster elections, but has never risen beyond statistical zero;
- Rejoin EU;
- UKIP [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party]. UKIP is of little account now, though it still has, apparently, as many as 20,000 members (on 2019 figures at least).
Some of those candidatures (UKIP, English Democrats, Heritage) will affect the contest between the two major contenders, taking away a few percent from the Conservatives, and the Green non-candidature will probably increase the Labour vote by a similar amount.
The contest has, in my view, just become tighter.
Update, 13 June 2021
A few news reports seen: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57429588; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57282364; https://www.dewsburyreporter.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-batley-and-spen-by-election-is-not-about-me-3268697.
Interesting piece from Spiked: https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/06/10/batley-and-spen-this-is-bigger-than-red-v-blue/.
Update, 14 June 2021
Update, 16 June 2021
Update, 20 June 2021
Update, 21 June 2021
That Owen Jones YouTube piece is quite interesting; worth watching.
Looks as though both the white English voters and the brown Muslim voters are abandoning Labour. That may mean that Labour is up that well-known creek without a paddle…
I thought that Galloway might get 5%, then I thought 10%. Now I am wondering if he might not get 20%, or even more, and (as he says he might) beat Labour into third place. If that were to happen, Labour might get a vote around 20% or even below that…
Update, 22 June 2021
“The final fortnight of the Batley and Spen by-election has turned ugly up in West Yorkshire. Yesterday, the Mail on Sunday columnist Dan Hodges quoted an anonymous Labour official claiming that ‘We’re haemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters and the reason for that is what Keir has been doing on antisemitism… he challenged Corbyn on it and there’s been a backlash among certain sections of the community.’
Predictably such an incendiary quote sparked fury among Labour MPs with the hunt now on for the possible culprit. But as tensions rise in the seat and polls show a narrow six point lead, one familiar face seems all too happy to cause as much controversy as possible. Step forward George Galloway, the man who is incidentally polling at six per cent in this seat and who was sacked from TalkRadio in 2019 after claiming Tottenham Hotspur’s Champions League defeat meant there would be ‘no Israel flags on the cup.‘” [The Spectator] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/galloway-gets-the-gang-back-together-in-batley-and-spen.
The fact is that Labour has been retaken by the Jewish lobby. Corbyn, its recent leader, is suspended and may be expelled. Keir Starmer is a Jewish lobby puppet, married to a Jewish woman lawyer, and they have children being brought up as if fully-Jewish.
Starmer has actually said, outright, that he is “a proud Zionist” who puts Israel first!
Labour has gradually, over a couple of decades, become the party of the blacks and browns, some public service workers, and a few other and smaller groups such as some of the “woke” Twitterati twits etc.
White (i.e. English) people generally have already abandoned Labour to a large extent. If, at Batley and Spen, the brown Muslim people are abandoning Labour, then Labour has no solid bloc supporting it. On the premises just shown, that would leave Labour with only a small minority vote.
It may be that that process of abandonment has not yet gone far enough to collapse Labour’s vote entirely, and it might even happen that Labour can pull the rabbit out of the hat and win, but that does look very unlikely.
What percentage vote-share will Labour get at Batley and Spen? It could be anywhere from 40% right down to 20%. When I first started this blog post, I was thinking that Labour would probably lose, but come a close second, with maybe as much as 40% or more of the vote. Now? Not sure. Again, my head is more cautious, thinking maybe 40%, but my instinct is again screaming out that Labour is going to go down to below 30%.
I thought, a month ago, that Galloway would do well to get 5% of the vote, but having seen some reports, it seems that the Muslims in the constituency are equating a vote for Labour with a vote for Israel. Galloway and his “Workers’ Party” may well end up with 10% or more of the vote. Goodbye Labour, if so.
We shall soon see.
Update, 23 June 2021
Semi-interesting analysis of recent by-elections by msm/System politics drone, Mark Wallace, who —incidentally— foolishly blocked me on Twitter when I had a Twitter account (a pack of Jews managed, via their usual concerted complaining, to have me expelled in 2018): https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chesham-amersham-by-elections-free-punch-who-want-hit-most-1064686
While the Mark Wallace analysis is (if I say so myself) far less interesting than what I myself have blogged, his article being scarcely riveting, it was not complete rubbish, whereas that New Statesman article is simply substandard. It ties in Conservative Party support to what is happening with the “dreaded” (though actually overblown) “virus”, to the exclusion of all else. Very poor.
Labour is failing because it no longer has an identity, no longer has a purpose, nor any vision of a decent future, especially for white English people. The Conservative Party is “succeeding” at present because it is not Labour. Simple as that, in a more or less rigged, and more or less binary, electoral and political system.
I suppose that the only answer Kim Leadbeater can give is “White English people have pretty much binned Labour; if the blacks and browns abandon Labour, Labour has nothing left…”
Why does it take people who are not themselves British in any real sense to stand up for the values of this country? Where are the English people? Where is puppet-candidate Kim Leadbeater? Where is Labour? Where, indeed, is the misnamed “Conservative” Party?
Strange people, more frightened of Jayda Fransen and her few followers than by a migration invasion by millions of non-Europeans…
A pretty standard analysis from a professor at Oxford University. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/23/batley-spen-byelection-labour.
I should say that one big difference between the situation at Batley and Spen, as compared to that at Chesham and Amersham is that, at Chesham and Amersham, Labour voters who did not abstain voted LibDem tactically. I very much doubt, though, that many LibDem voters at Batley and Spen will vote Labour tactically, though some may.
Another difference: at Chesham and Amersham, the 2019 Labour vote was 12.9% of votes cast (20.6% in 2017); at Batley and Spen, the LibDem vote in 2019 was only 4.7% (2.3% in 2017).
In other words, tactical voting is of less importance in this particular by-election.
Update, 24 June 2021
That BBC report gives the Muslim population, as a proportion of the electorate of Batley and Spen, as being around 20%. If most of them abandon Labour, that would halve, more or less, the 2019 Labour vote. Almost halve it, anyway.
If most whites (English) and most browns (Muslims etc) abandon Labour, then what does Labour have left in a place like Batley? 10% of the vote? 20%?
We shall soon see.
Meanwhile, the Jewish/Zionist lobby is desperate to save Keir Starmer, its puppet Labour Party leader, from humiliating defeat (despite the fact that most Jews vote Conservative):
George Galloway seems to be growing in popularity in Batley and Spen:
Update, 25 June 2021
That piece made me laugh. Galloway really put the silly Channel 4 bimbo in her place. For Channel 4, the main talking point in Batley and Spen is that Galloway’s supporters are allegedly attacking the Labour candidate, Kim Leadbeater, because she is a lesbian.
It really is time for Channel 4 to have its rice bowl taken away.
The report did cover the Conservative and LibDem candidates as well. The Con man was, well, just that, in my opinion. A cautious woodentopped product of a Conservative Party public relations machine. No obvious original thought in his head. As for the LibDem, a pathetic damp squib limp-wrist, to be frank.
The more I see on TV etc about the by-election up there, the more I think it likely that Labour is going to get thrashed, which would mean that the Conservative Party will win, though not on merit.
English Democrats: It has been brought to my attention that Therese Hirst, the candidate for the English Democrats, was profiled in the Yorkshire Post: https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/english-democrats-announce-candidate-for-batley-and-spen-by-election-as-reform-uk-decide-not-to-stand-3263028
Batley and Spen Labour Party by-election candidate Kim Leadbeater runs away from Muslims and others who do not want their young children taught about lesbianism etc. She is said to be a lesbian herself, and the “teaching LGBT-etc in schools” thing may damage her campaign with some voters, particularly Muslims.
Update, 26 June 2021
Update, 27 June 2021
The above statement was apparently made a year or two ago, and was posted on Twitter by a dissident Labour Party member in August 2020. I have been so far unable to find out in what year Starmer made that statement (assuming that he did) but he has anyway made plain many times that he fully supports the Jewish lobby and Israel. If he did not support it/them, then he would not have been “put in” as leader! I imagine that his Jewish wife would also have a few words to say to him!
Hardly surprising that many in Batley and Spen are not interested in helping Starmer by voting for Labour and Kim Leadbeater. Not only Muslim voters. Many others are very angry at the Jew-Zionist cabals that infest UK politics.
Exactly. The former Batley and Spen MP was a brainless ex-soap “star” (of whom I had never heard). Now Labour has selected another person with no real political profile.
The organized Israel/Jew lobby naturally want Zionist-controlled Labour and Kim Leadbeater to win. Voters of Batley and Spen take note…
Update, 28 June 2021
Kim Leadbeater, the Labour candidate, is plainly as thick as two short planks, and has quite obviously been drilled to deliver pathetic soundbites such as “there is no magic money tree“. She is one personification of why Labour is going nowhere but down.
As for the white English voters, who are at least 75% of the electorate, most of them had already given up on Labour even in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s.
If in 2019, Tracy Brabin and Labour only got 42.7%, almost half of that that would have been the Muslim vote. If, in this by-election, most of that Muslim vote disappears to Galloway (or to abstention), that would seem to reduce Labour to a vote-share around 30%. If half of the English former (2019) Labour voters also abstain or vote elsewhere, the Labour vote might reduce to around 20%, or less. That might knock Labour into third place.
Having said that, there is still all to play for at Batley and Spen. The Labour candidate still has as ammunition her local roots, the tradition of Labour voting locally, and the sympathy vote around the assassination of her sister (former MP Jo Cox) by a socio-political dissident. I have to say that I myself am sceptical that that sympathy vote even exists, but there it is.
Incidentally, there has been much msm and Twitter noise around the egg attack on Labour leafletters. Has it not occurred to anyone that that may have been locals expressing their opinion of the last thick-as-two-short-planks MP, Tracy Brabin, who was, it seems, one of those attacked?
Update, 29 June 2021
Update, 30 June 2021
Well, polling day is tomorrow. I shall post the result(s) here as well as on my daily blog.
It may be that Labour can still pull the rabbit out of the hat, but to my mind the campaign has sunk Labour, because it has exposed their candidate, Ms. Leadbeater, as a near-idiot who only joined Labour weeks ago, and is very obviously being used as a puppet to get a sympathy vote based on the 2016 Jo Cox assassination. A sympathy vote which I do not believe exists anyway in any strength.
The rigged 2016 by-election was won by Labour with a 85% vote-share only because Conservatives, LibDems and UKIP did not contest the seat, and on a miserable 25% turnout. It might even be argued that, in 2016, 80% or more of the eligible voters at Batley and Spen did not have sympathy…
My guess? 1. Conservative Party; 2. George Galloway (Workers’ Party); 3. Kim Leadbeater (Labour); 4. Yorkshire Party.
Update, 2 July 2021
The result of the by-election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.
My feeling was that Labour would lose, and quite possibly come third. I was not correct. Labour won narrowly or, as they say on the racecourse, “by a neck, cleverly”.
Labour got a vote-share of 35.3%. The Conservative candidate got 34.4%. George Galloway, under the banner of the Workers’ Party, did better than many expected (21.9%); I at least got that right.
All other candidates, 13 in number, lost their deposits; LibDems 3.3%; Yorkshire Party 2.2%. The other 11 received vote-shares below half of one percent each. UKIP, on 0.4%, just beat the Monster Raving Loony (0.3%).
The small and supposedly “nationalist” parties were, as expected, an embarrassment. The English Democrats, whose candidate (Therese Hirst) actually wrote to my blog comments page to request a mention, seem to have withdrawn their candidature.
The For Britain party leader, Anne Marie Waters, got 0.3% (97 votes). Jayda Fransen did even worse, though on a par with her previous forays into doomed electioneering: 0.1% (50 votes). [nb. percentages approximate].
I shall discuss the result further on my blog post for 1 July 2021.