Diary Blog, 15 December 2021, including brief assessment of the North Shropshire by-election

Morning music

[The Lion, Forbury Gardens, Reading; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maiwand_Lion]

Interesting travelogue

Lyrics unintentionally amusing in places…

Us and Them

A fairly hard-hitting video by Paul Joseph Watson, “@PrisonPlanet”. I do not rate Watson very highly from the strict political point of view, but his interesting vlogs have awoken many, at least from unquestioning acceptance of the propaganda pumped out by the System.

On this day a year ago

Another ghastly crime against a small child

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310411/TWO-tragic-children-murdered-failed-system.html

This time, the crime involved crazed lesbians, one of which (the actual murderess) was from some (unspecified but looking at the photo probably Irish tinker-“traveller”) “gypsy” origin, according to the newspaper report.

Dismissed as ‘racist homophobes’, the great grandparents who tried to save Star Hobson: Toddler’s injuries were ignored FIVE TIMES by social services after gipsy lesbian stepmother ‘convinced them relatives who raised alarm were malicious’ [Daily Mail].

Is there more of this sort of terrible abuse now, as compared to, say, 1960, or 1930? I do not know. The breakdown of society, and social norms, may be part of the problem, but there is a dearth of reliable information.

The cost of the panicdemic/scamdemic “measures” and relief

Still think that the “Boris”/Sunak “furlough” giveaway, and other nonsense such as “Test and Trace”, has been cost-free to individual members of the public? Think again: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310253/Ministers-consider-plans-raise-state-retirement-age-born-1970s-seven-years.html.

North Shropshire by-election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election.

The by-election in North Shropshire is taking place tomorrow. I have not bothered to blog about it because the seat has until now been considered safe for the Conservative Party. I have just read an appreciation by a Professor Jennings: https://news.sky.com/story/north-shropshire-by-election-could-a-surprise-be-on-the-cards-12495468.

There are 14 candidates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election#Candidates.

The Conservative candidate is one Dr. Neil Shastri-Hurst, who seems to be of mixed origins, and who is both a barrister and a medical doctor (former Army doctor): see https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-branded-callous-over-25530760. The election is plainly his to lose, given the history of the seat.

Conservative Party candidates have won every election for the seat since 1832 (the seat was not in existence between 1885 and 1983), and the Conservative Party vote peaked in 2019 at 62.7%.

Labour, though traditionally usually coming in in second place, came close to ousting the Conservative candidate in 1997; only about 4 points separated the top two that year.

In 2019, the Labour candidate received a vote-share of 22.1%, but the same candidate had scored 31.1% in 2017.

The Conservative Party vote-share has risen uninterruptedly since 1997, whereas the Labour vote has generally declined; the 2017 Labour vote-share was higher than in most years.

It follows that, should the “unthinkable” occur and Shastri-Hurst not be elected, the shock to the Conservative Party (and “Boris”) would be seismic.

Among the 14 candidates are Reclaim Party (the Laurence Fox vehicle), Reform UK (the latest Nigel Farage pop-up), the rump of UKIP, and Heritage, as well as Green Party and the LibDems, whose best result in effect (as Liberal Party) was a second-place 31.6% in 1983.

In the past, it was likely that serious tactical voters would go Labour rather than LibDem, Labour having the higher likelihood of success in the seat, but that is an open question this time. The bookmakers put the Conservatives and LibDems neck-and-neck, and it seems that confidence is not high in the “Boris” camp. Having said that, bookmakers are often a poor source for election predictions, their odds reflecting (mainly) bets placed, many of which are placed far from the constituency.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/13/bookies-make-lib-dems-favourite-in-north-shropshire-poll-owen-paterson-byelection.

Naturally, newspaper reports such as that, showing that the LibDems have a good chance, tend to encourage tactical voting.

As to how much the Conservative vote will be impacted by the smaller quasi-conservative parties such as Reform UK, Reclaim, UKIP and Heritage, hard to say but probably no more than 20% altogether. Still, that notional 20% could be crucial.

Turnout is forecast to be low, not least because many usually Conservative voters seem to despise “Boris” and his misgovernment, and so, unwilling to vote Labour or even LibDem, may simply abstain.

My assessment? I think that the LibDems must have a chance, anyway.

The usual Conservative vote may not turn out (though many will have voted by post already), the overall turnout may be low (favouring other parties), the majority of voters in such a seat will never vote for post-2010 Labour, and the four smaller baby-con parties will tap votes which would otherwise go Con.

The LibDems are not quite as zealous about Covid “restrictions” and “measures” (such as the facemask nonsense) as are the present Government and its Labour “enablers”. That may help the LibDems.

The Conservative candidate is non-white (apparently half-English) in a 95% white English constituency, though that may be of only peripheral importance, looking at non-white “Conservative” MPs elsewhere. I had never heard of him until today but, reading about him, he seems to be very much a “head over heart” person; the voters may not warm to him.

There again, many people just want to give both the “Boris” circus and the Labour “enablers” (who have just saved the Government’s bacon yet again) a good kick. That has to favour the LibDems. Still, fairly open even now.

It will be interesting to see how misnamed “Labour” does, too. About 31% in 2017, but only 22% in 2019 (both times under Corbyn). Now, under “Covid” zealot Starmer? If Labour cannot get at least 20%, it will be significant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency).

Tweets seen

So to get a peerage now, if you cannot donate a million to a System political party, you have to do noteworthy things such as…set up a charity or “good cause” which closes after a year or two with all its monies “gone” under suspicious circumstances, then fail to become either an MP or Mayor of London, and then…oh. that’s it, except that it helps to be black or brown these days.

It has been a little while since antifa cheerleader Mike Stuchbery mentioned me on Twitter. Well, one “good turn” deserves another! https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/10/23/a-few-words-about-mike-stuchbery/.

At least Stuchbery has given up describing himself as “historian“. Now it is “journalist/content editor“…

A rigged contest between an incompetent government and the official opposition that is enabling most of that government’s dictatorial “Covid” laws and regulations.

I have blogged before about potential minority Labour governments which would depend on SNP support. Problem would be that the SNP would like another Independence referendum, or even actual Independence. The hypothetical minority Labour government could not of course grant the latter without a referendum. As to the former, the SNP would probably make the holding of such a referendum a sine qua non of any Commons support.

Were a Scottish Independence referendum to be held, and were the SNP to win a majority for breaking away from the UK, as soon as the break happened, there would be no SNP MPs at Westminster. That Labour government would then fall.

On the figures modelled, Labour could then govern with LibDem support, but recent elections have shown the Conservative Party far larger in the Commons than Labour. No SNP might mean no Labour government ever again. An interesting conundrum for Labour, if those modelled figures were to match electoral reality in the next 2-3 years.

More tweets

That Tom Harwood person is obviously a “slithey tove”, and careerist, who is quite knowingly “controlled opposition”.

Pretty sad that a government can use the Whittys and Fergusons to give faked “credibility” to their agenda —or rather the agenda of a transnational conspiracy of which “Boris” and his clowns are mere puppets— and then use scribblers and talking heads to spread the fake news.

Strange anomaly

For some reason, far more hits on the blog today than usual; several hundred, in fact. The other unusual statistic is that two-thirds today are apparently from Germany, which is very anomalous. There are usually a few hits from Germany, but not hundreds! Deutschland erwache!?

For those who may be interested, this blog usually gets about 80% of its hits from the UK; the rest come from all over the world, though most are from the USA, Australia, and a few other countries (France, Germany, Canada, and —oddly?— China are usually represented). I have had hits from almost every country, even places such as Burkina Faso, Paraguay, and (once only, I think!) Antarctica. Perhaps Adolf, emerging from an Antarctic opening from the hollow Earth (by submarine or flying saucer?), with devotees of the Welteislehre! Only joking…

Early evening music

Late tweets

The atomization of the population, and the sophisticated tools now in use for repressing any collective political or socio-political dissent, may lead to a wave of “lone wolves”, unless a proper social-national movement comes into existence soon. That possible wave of lone wolves would be a pity, because only a social-national movement can save us.

Just imagine…that could, and in fact would, be President of the USA if Biden were to snuff it while in office! Still, look at Biden himself. Come to that, who are we to talk, looking at Boris-idiot, Gove, and the rest of that pack of clowns?

I would compare these venal MPs to members of another old-established occupation, but at least those others give their customers pleasure, and/or a presumably required service, and at least the public does not end up footing the bill.

I did not know that, not that that matters, I not being a voter in North Shropshire.

I have a better and more just idea, but do not think that I can express it. I might add that I am surprised that Griffin, a Cambridge graduate, cannot spell the word restaurateur.

Already, Oxford is very different to what it was, not in the time of Zuleika Dobson, or that of Brideshead Revisited, but to what it was in the early 1960s.

I recall going once or twice with my mother in or about 1962 to some kind of Oxfam volunteer thing on, I think, a Saturday (we lived between Reading and Wallingford, so not hugely far from Oxford). I recall tables strewn with donated clothing in some kind of church hall or the like. People were sorting them, I think.

I do remember fairly empty roads, even in Oxford itself. I think we drove past the famous meadow track where the 4-minute-mile had been broken in 1954; my mother remarked on it. Anyway, the point is that the city and surroundings seemed uncrowded, quite different to the congested Oxford of today, where driving and especially parking is a nightmare.

Inflation 5%…not very long ago it was about 2.5%. Then we have the “proposal” to increase the pension age more rapidly than had been planned before the “panicdemic”.

Still think that “furlough” payments, and the rest of the “Covid” madness, came at no cost to the individual citizen? Think again…

Late music

Incidentally, the hall where that noble performance of Bruckner’s Ninth Symphony was recorded, on 7 October 1944, was destroyed by Allied bombing only weeks, or even days, later. There is now nothing left of the Beethoven-saal but a few stones and a couple of plaques. Wikipedia has the date of its destruction as 1 January 1944, which is probably a mistake (it may have been 1 January 1945).

2 thoughts on “Diary Blog, 15 December 2021, including brief assessment of the North Shropshire by-election”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s