Morning music

On the blog 3 years ago

On the blog 2 years ago

On the blog 1 year ago

Saturday quiz

Well, my 5/10 this week once again trumped the 4/10 scored by political journalist John Rentoul. I knew the answers to questions 1, 3, 4, 8, and 9.

Tweets seen

Trump might do anything. One cannot predict it, because he is the personification of random unpredictability.

Europe slides ever-faster down the slope of utter decadence.

Would not be surprised to find that the Israelis, in conjunction with the Jewish lobby in Argentina, are behind this.

So who is in favour?

[“On this day two years ago. Don’t say @s_m_marandi didn’t warn you.

“If the United States gets involved, have no doubt, the US will be swept out of Iraq by the resistance and all its assets in the Persian Gulf will be destroyed. All these regimes with US bases will be destroyed and the oil and gas markets will cause a situation where the global economy will collapse, so be careful about making stupid mistakes.”]

Marandi is an Iranian academic.

Whatever you give “them”, (((they))) will complain, demand more, and turn on you in the end. Not just “Israel” and nominal Israelis, but also the type as a whole. Look at the behaviour of Zelensky.

Burnham is even a member of Labour Friends of Israel, just like Starmer-stein.

Israel— a rogue state, which has a very wealthy and influential “fifth column” in this country (as in some others).

Whatever the arguments, the fact is that pensioners will be worse-off under Labour after 2030 (when Burnham says the Triple Lock will go) and, quite possibly, before then. Result? 99% of pensioners (a third of the electorate, and maybe as much as 50% of the actually-voting electorate) will not be voting Labour. Largely but not just because of the Triple Lock being dumped. It is the whole direction of travel.

Late tweets

That funny woman tweeter is obsessed with, inter alia, cutting off Triple Lock money going to pensioners. Yes, only 12% of people of 65+ years vote Labour. That will now shrink to about 1%-2%, I expect. That means that 98% of those 65+ will vote somewhere other than Labour. Probably Reform, most of them.

The point, though, previously also made on the blog, is that people aged 65+ mostly actually vote. The other age-groups vote in far smaller numbers, proportionately.

The 65+ age group is about a third of the electorate, and must be at least 40% of those that actually turn out to vote (or vote via postal ballot). Maybe even 50%

Labour will therefore not be getting the votes of anything up to 50% of the total of those (of all ages) that vote, even before taking into consideration the votes of the <65 age groups.

Burnham-Labour has already alienated the under-24 age group by the recently-announced benefit cuts and changes.

Anything can happen in politics, but it would take a near-miracle for Labour to get to 35% of the poll, and that is surely their minimum if they want to be sure of a Commons majority.

That latest poll translates to a Commons with about 342 Labour MPs (so a majority of seats), 155 Reform (official Opposition), 55 Cons, 51 LibDems, and 20 SNP [etc].

Uncertain now how accurate such predictions are. Restore may only be getting 3% of the opinion poll votes, but that is enough to badly damage Reform in marginal seats. As to Labour, I doubt whether its present relative popularity will continue, but there is no doubt that many of Burnham’s recently-announced policies are quite popular:

I myself agree with all but three of the policies listed there.

My feeling right now is that Reform, though so disappointing (pro-Israel, pro-Jewish lobby, pro-finance-capitalism and —in some respects— globalism, is still the main game in town in terms of at least pseudo-national populism. I can see many more presently Conservative votes going to Reform.

If I am right, and the Con vote reduces to, say 12% by 2028/2029, and the Reform vote rises to, say, 30%, then the post-election picture would be very different: that would give Labour maybe 265 MPs (far short of a majority), and Reform would have more MPs than Lab, 281. The LibDems would be on 53, the SNP 23, Greens 3 and the Con Party only 2. Near-wipeout. That would effectively finish off the Con Party.

As to government, Reform would be unable to form even a workable minority government despite having a plurality of MPs, but Labour would just about be able to function as a minority government with LibDem and SNP [etc] support.

I agree with that lady tweeter on that subject. For many years I broadly supported foxhunting as a colourful historical spectacle with long roots in England, but for many years now I have strongly opposed it (and most other field sports) by reason of my love for animals and, in minor key, also my dislike of, or distaste for, all foxhunters that I have ever met (at least as an adult).

I have to say that the bridge attacks are a brilliant tactical move by the Russian side.

Kiev is on both sides of the Dnieper, but the more important part of the city is on the western or right bank.

Late muse

I happened to see a travel show presented by an American of whom I had not previously heard, one Stanley Tucci [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Tucci]. Apparently a well-known film-maker and actor (well, I cannot know everything…). A New Yorker whose grandparents or great-grandparents emigrated from Calabria to America before the Second World War or, possibly, before the First World War.

It seems that the show was made in 2021, so 5+ years ago.

The programme showed him in Tuscany, then in Sicily. Mostly about the Italian regional cuisine(s). Not terribly dull, though hardly riveting, but of course this is an area covered many times in similar vein (think Rick Stein, Jamie Oliver, and many others).

When in Sicily, this Tucci expressed the view that immigration improves any society! Very wrongheaded. What many now call a “luxury belief” held by those (usually the affluent) who prefer not to see the downsides of mass immigration from backward parts of the world such as black Africa, North Africa etc.

Even without having to hear his wrongheaded views about the migration-invasion of Italy, I have to say that I found the aforesaid Tucci not someone to whom I warmed. He lacked the charm of some similar TV tourists.

Never mind. It filled an empty hour.

History as rarely seen

An historical and historic film sent to me today. Worth hearing or reading (subtitled)

Late music