Tag Archives: opinion poll

Diary Blog, 2 December 2023, with thoughts about General Election 2024, Reform UK etc

Afternoon music

Saturday quiz

Well, this week I scraped another narrow victory over political journalist John Rentoul, with 5/10 as compared to his 4/10.

I knew the answers to questions 1, 2, 5, 6, and 10.

Tweets seen

I feel that, with the passing into history of the late Queen, the Monarchy in Britain has ceased to be of any real relevance.

Charles has become a total —and very obvious— mouthpiece for the international conspiracy.

Please refer to previous comment…

That would result, using Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html] in a massive Labour majority of (about) 352: Labour 501 MPs, Conservatives 74, LibDems 35. The only thing keeping the Con Party going would be its history (now trashed anyway), its assets (if any) and its name-recognition among the public.

I notice that it might also mean an undeserved boost to the LibDems, tripling their number of MPs.

Despite that polling, indicating that Reform UK might still win no seats (despite polling nationwide a point higher than the LibDems; more proof that FPTP voting is not working now in the UK), this may not be the end of the show. I think that political academic Matt Goodwin might be right in predicting a surge in support for the rather pathetic latest Farage vehicle (now notionally led by Richard Tice).

If, as Goodwin predicts might happen, Reform UK does surge to, say, 15%, and if the extra 5 points come from Con Party former voters, then the number of Con Party seats reduces to about 30, but Labour would gain, and not Reform UK, which would still be left without any MPs despite, in that scenario, scoring one and a half times the votes of the LibDems, who would end up with about 43 MPs. The voting system is broken.

The reason of course, is that (as with UKIP in 2015) Reform UK has a fairly even level of support nationwide, without the concentrations of votes in some constituencies that the LibDems have.

In fact, to start getting MPs, Reform UK will have to achieve about 18% across the board. If those votes all came from former Con voters, the Con Party vote would have to decline to 14%. In that unlikely (?) scenario, the Conservatives would be left with about 10 MPs and might fairly be said to have been wiped out.

Incidentally, on 18%, Reform UK would still only get about 1 MP.

If Reform UK can take Labour votes as well, a very different picture. Still a huge Labour majority, but the Conservatives left with a rather more respectable 80-90 seats (and LibDems with about 50). Reform UK would still only get one or two MPs, however. Very unjust (not that I have much time for Reform UK, especially after Farage and Tice recently doormatting for Israel and the Jewish lobby).

I take Goodwin’s point though (I should do— after all, I have been making it for years myself): in a situation where both main System parties are determined to do pretty much the opposite of what most voters want, even sheep-like voters start to think how to protest, in the absence of a credible social-national party. Former Con voters may abstain, or may vote (mainly) for Reform UK, maybe LibDem, or other parties; Labour dissenters who dislike Starmer and his Labour Party may protest by (mainly) voting LibDem or Green.

Both main System parties are signed up to the transnational conspiratorial agenda— funnelling blacks and browns into Europe and other formerly almost-entirely white European societies (Australia, New Zealand etc). Also, signed up to the whole globalization project, to the biosecurity pseudo-health state idea, and to the cashless society idea (thus allowing the “central power” to de-bank people, cut off funds etc at will, eventually, e.g. to punish those who say or write the “wrong” things).

At present, GE 2024 is still a year ahead, probably. The only fairly certain fact is that this Government has run out of road, and is hanging on because it cannot think of anything else to do. Indian money-juggler Sunak is as misplaced in his office as were “Boris”-idiot, Theresa May, and David Cameron-Levita; ah, I actually forgot that ridiculous “ho”, Liz Truss. She too.

Sunak will probably decamp to California by 2025 at latest. Remember that nasty little bastard Nick Clegg? He is now living in an affluent suburb near San Francisco.

We are “ruled” by cosmopolitan poseurs of that sort, totally corrupt, and their venality equalled by their incompetence.

More tweets

Yes, but at present there are nearly a million unwanted migrant-invaders coming to live in the UK every year, even after emigrants are taken into account. That makes a continuing and worsening housing situation inevitable.

In a word, yes…

“Ukraine” (Kiev regime)— a failed state, a non-state.

A considerable part of the Ukrainian population might be fairly described as “blockheads” (even before they get drunk).

Please refer to previous comment.

I do not know the politics of Highgate, particularly, so cannot really comment.

Incidentally, that tweeter, John Edwards, a retired fire chief, at one time quite a few years ago would chat to me on Twitter (a pack of Jews had me expelled in 2018), but later had his ear bent to the extent that he tweeted to people that I was “a dreadful fascist“; yet here I am supporting his right to freedom of expression. #MoralHighGround…

Anyone who votes Labour in 2024 expecting any kind of positive change in the UK from that would have to be a total idiot. However, the present Sunak Government is just so hated and despised by almost everyone (my guess, around 85%+) that, in a basically binary electoral/political system, Labour, despite the fact that it offers —realistically— nothing, is almost certain to win big next year.

Britain is now so screwed, and in almost every way, that only a total change to a social-national rulership, combined with a massive cultural and other purge, will save it, if it can be saved.

Hancock should have been tarred and feathered, along with all those in and around government promulgating the absurd “lockdowns” and other “Covid”-related nonsense.

Instead, he is given hundreds of thousands of pounds to eat snails and witchetty grubs in that ridiculous “Jungle” TV show.

My assessment of Hancock from 2019: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/09/09/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-matt-hancock-story/.

Well, dear readers, was I right or wrong?

See also: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/scientists-reveal-jewish-history-s-forgotten-turkish-roots-a6992076.html.

“Israeli-born geneticist believes the Turkish villages of Iskenaz, Eskenaz and Ashanaz were part of the original homeland for Ashkenazic Jews.

New research suggests that the majority of the world’s modern Jewish population is descended mainly from people from ancient Turkey, rather than predominantly from elsewhere in the Middle East.

The new research suggests that most of the Jewish population of northern and eastern Europe – normally known as Ashkenazic Jews – are the descendants of Greeks, Iranians and others who colonized what is now northern Turkey more than 2000 years ago and were then converted to Judaism, probably in the first few centuries AD by Jews from Persia. At that stage, the Persian Empire was home to the world’s largest Jewish communities.

According to research carried out by the geneticist, Dr Eran Elhaik of the University of Sheffield, over 90 per cent of Ashkenazic ancestors come from that converted partially Greek-originating ancient community in north-east Turkey.

[The Independent]

In other words, they have no right (based on claims of ancient settlement) to the lands now known as Israel and Palestine.

There should be an institute somewhat similar to SS-Ahnenerbe which could take DNA and other evidence, in order to investigate such theories and claims.

Should not be too difficult. After all, Zelensky has ripped off tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions, of US dollars, has a $50M villa in Florida, another luxury villa in Italy, probably others as well.

Late music

[painting by M. Lounis]