Chesham and Amersham
By-election day.
I looked at the runners and riders a while ago: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2021/06/06/diary-blog-6-june-2021-including-the-upcoming-by-elections-chesham-and-amersham-and-batley-and-spen/; and https://ianrobertmillard.org/2021/06/16/diary-blog-16-june-2021-including-final-look-at-tomorrows-chesham-and-amersham-by-election/.
I concluded that the most likely result would be a Conservative win, though probably with a greatly-reduced vote-share. Now, however, it seems that there is a serious possibility of one of those unexpected LibDem (and, in the further past, Liberal Party) by-election upsets: Eastbourne, Orpington etc.
Well, I still think that a Con victory is more likely than not, but if the 2019 Con vote halved, and if the LibDem 2019 vote were to double, then…
My main interest in the by-election will be the Labour result. 12% or so in 2019, but Labour has come close to losing its deposit in the past, most closely in 2010. If I had to bet, I should say that Labour may lose its deposit today.
Tweets seen
Yes. I keep seeing crazy “rabbits”, mostly at or beyond retirement age, walking around on clifftops or alone on empty pavements, masked. Idiots. Complete idiots.
…and the prize for Hypocrite of the Day goes to Mark Lewis, the Jewish solicitor who moved to Israel in 2018 after having been found guilty on several charges by the Solicitors’ Regulation Authority.
“The main thing in life is to treat others as you wish to be treated”, says he!
See, for example: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/01/11/update-re-mark-lewis-lawyer-questions-are-raised/.
Afternoon music
BBC Radio 4 PM
Just listening to the PM radio show. Pretty pathetic (as usual). Most of the time taken up with the “panicdemic”: virus variants, measures taken across Europe, blah blah…
More tweets about today’s by-election
Well, 2010 is a long time ago now, but do those people really not remember that, when the LibDems were offered ministerial pay and privileges for propping up the regime of David Cameron-Levita, they almost bit his hand off in their eagerness to cash in?
In reality, we have only a facade of democracy.
Labour in particular wants desperately to hold on to the fiction that it is a “national” party, fighting every seat, when the reality is that it is dead in much of the south of England outside London, dead in Scotland, and dying in the north of England and Midlands. A niche party for some ethnic minorities, some public service workers and a few other smallish groups.
Late tweets
Alternative view: a persistent expenses-blodger and thief.
Alternative view: Britain has imported millions of unwanted immigrants in the past 50 years. They have been breeding prolifically. That is the main reason that housing is in short supply and/or priced at ludicrously high levels.
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 
So the Clown Party (formerly a serious political party and STILL WOULD be if their senile dementia addled members had elected who they should have in 2019 namely the far more intelligent and naturally able, Jeremy Hunt, rather than Coco The Clown) is a bit worried about losing the seat of Chesham and Amersham, are they?
Well, they should be. Many people (NOT just Tories) in these kind of ‘safe’ Tory ares like Chesham and Amersham and here in Brentwood and Ongar don’t wish to see the Green Belt around our towns and villages be bulldozed for more housing development caused by the Conservative Party totally failing to control immigration to this country properly.😡🤬🙄☹️
In Chesham and Amersham they also have the added worry of that HS2 white elephant. If it goes ahead then much more extensive mitigation of its damaging environmental effects needs to put into place eg a longer tunnel under the Chilterns.
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WHY are you STILL tweeting your patently unscientific crap, Mr Hitchens?🙄🙄🙄🙄🤬🤬🤬😡😡😡
WHY are you STILL encouraging lawless YOBS to ignore the LAW and to help to put decent, vulnerable people into an early grave or fall gravely ill with sometimes LIFELONG bad consequences for their health?🙄🙄🙄🙄😡😡😡🤬
Have you heard of ‘Long Covid’?🙄🙄🙄🙄
WHY don’t you crawl back under that rock you emerged from last year and stop causing trouble for already hard pressed police officers or our doctors and nurses who have seen far too many deaths caused by the vile likes of you!
Why don’t you just shut the hell up and piss off to degenerate Yankee land where libertarian extremists like you have caused 600,000 deaths and counting.
Fuck off, you evil man!🙄🙄🙄😡😡😡🤬👌
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So your average fanatical Jewish Zionist in the Zionist state acts like a Nazi German in the 1930’s/1940’s?
Well, that would be a surprise but not to those intelligent enough to not believe the type of pro-Israel propaganda put out by the likes of The Scum or no doubt those fakes at so-called GB ‘News’.🙄🙄🙄
Such charming people, Israelis! Why are we associated with them so much? We should distance ourselves or we will end up with a 9/11 event like the USA did.😡☹️😞😞☹️
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Yes, good people of Chesham and Amersham, don’t do what the rather silly people of Hartlepool did and elect a Tory MP but elect Sarah Green instead! Unlike the idiots of Hartlepool, you should not wish to endorse a government that failed to take Covid-19 seriously from day one, failed to take any genuine restrictive travel measures from the START of the crisis, failed to mandate facial mask wearing early enough, ended the first lockdown too soon, didn’t order a second lockdown last year early enough, and let new variants like the one from India and the Delta variant into the country where they could spread easily.
The only part of their response they have done relatively well is the vaccine rollout!
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I wish people would swear at you, Mr Hitchens, you bloody weirdo! You are a total crank and anti-social misfit as regards your nutty opinions on Covid-19. I hope after this crisis is finally over you disappear into obscurity never to be seen or heard of again!
At one time you had a tiny bit of credibility but after this past year with your continual anti-scientific ranting what little credibility you did possess is surely at an end!
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Why are people wearing masks, asks libertarian nutty extremist, Peter Hitchens?
Maybe, just maybe, they are doing it because they think it is act of SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY to try and porotect their own health AND that of OTHERS?🙄🙄🙄
Of course, it should go without saying, that the concept of looking out for others interests is completely anathema to libertarian extremists. Being anti-social and downright selfish is the very basis of that degenerate creed Mrs Thatcher so unwisely began to introduce to Britain with the all too predictable results of Britain’s horrific death rate from Covid-19 today.
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If the Tory vote doesn’t drop further then the Liberal Democrats will need to get a further 4% or more from the Labour Party and Green supporters. That should be achievable. I would be surprised if the Labour vote holds up to any great extent especially at the moment. As in 2010’s general election the Labour vote there has gone down to near deposit losing levels before and that was a general election situation.
It would be a laugh if the crank ‘let’s kill/murder yet more people’ anti-lockdown nutter candidate polled a few hundred votes and gifted the seat to Sarah Green via a split ‘Tory’/Libertarian extremist nutcase vote!
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The result could be desperately close as it was in the Berwick Upon Tweed By-Election in 1973 when Alan Beith won the seat from the Tories under a similar left wing leader in Edward Heath by a tiny margin of just 57 votes which set a new post war record for narrowest by-election winning margin that still stands today. Amazingly, Alan Beith continued to hold the seat for his party until he stood down in 2015.
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Well, m’Lord of Essex, incumbency is a strong factor for an MP. Look at Caroline Lucas at Brighton Pavilion. She only just got there the first time, but has strengthened her position with every election. If a sitting MP bleeds support over the years, it probably means that he/she is NBG (no bloody good), eg John Woodcock.
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Many Lib Dem MPs are conscientious with their constituency duties. They have little option not to be since building-up a personal vote is often one of the best ways they can use to hang onto their seats whereas Labour and Tory MPs can rely on the party label vote more.
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Well, m’Lord of Essex…credit is due! You called the Chesham and Amersham result right!
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As well as being a staunch opponent of HS2, the previous Tory MP had another good point in her favour in that she was the chairwoman of the Buckinghamshire branch of the excellent environmental group called the Campaign To Protect Rural England (CPRE). I am not aware of any other Tory MP to have held such a position. That should be commended.
I believe Neville Chamberlain was involved with the CPRE at one time and was a mover behind the creation of Green Belts.
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Yes, m’Lord of Essex, the deceased MP was not *all* bad. I think that she was pro-animal welfare too.
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