Diary Blog, 24 June 2022, with analysis of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election result

Morning music

[Shishkin, Before the Storm]

On this day a year ago

Tiverton and Honiton by-election

A stunning reversal for the misnamed Conservative Party. The result: LibDems 53.1%; Conservatives 38.6%, Labour 3.7%, Green 2.5%, Reform UK 1.1%, UKIP 0.6%, Heritage 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%.

The victor, one Richard Foord, is an ex-officer so obscure that, so far, all that Wikipedia can say about him is that he is “a retired Army major who works in a university“.

[Update, same day: Wikipedia has now augmented its profile— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Foord].

Unpacking the result, this was always, and obviously, going to be between the Conservatives, who had held the seat since it was created in 1997, and the LibDems, with most msm “experts” forecasting, until Election Day itself, a modest Conservative Party win. Even prior to 1997, the area broadly covered by the constituency had been Con since 1923.

The LibDems put out a huge effort on the ground, I have read.

The Conservative vote-share almost halved, from 60.2% in 2019 to 38.6% at the by-election. Still it shows what a deeply pro-Con constituency Tiverton and Honiton still is, that nearly 40% of those who voted were still willing to vote Con despite Boris-idiot and his Cabinet of Clowns, and despite the former MP having stepped down after having been caught viewing porn in the Chamber of the House of Commons during a Commons debate.

Those who voted“…ay, there’s the rub. Little more than half of eligible voters turned out to vote (or sent in postal votes). The turnout in 2019 was about 80%. Conclusion: a very large number of former Conservative voters abstained, unwilling to vote LibDem but also unwilling to vote Con. 2019— nearly 36,000 Con votes; 2022— approx. 16,000 Con votes. Boris-idiot must be the main reason for the turning-away by former Con voters, though the peccadillo of the smug farmer who was until recently the MP was another factor, almost certainly.

The Conservative candidate (a woman, after the former male MP’s peccadillo; the thinking is so obvious, you can almost see the Con wheels turning) was a poor candidate; indeed, “thick as two short planks”, like so many State schoolteachers today, but that had little to do with the result.

The previous LibDem high point was in 2001 (35.8%).

What we have here is widespread dissatisfaction and indeed disgust at the present Boris-idiot misgovernment, which resulted at the by-election in much voter-abstention, probably much switching from Con to LibDem, and some tactical voting by those who might formerly have voted Labour.

For me, the most interesting aspect has been the collapse of the Labour vote.

The aforementioned tactical voting no doubt had much to do with the fall in Labour support from 19.5% to 3.7%.

The fall in numerical terms was even more stark— 11,654 Labour votes in 2019 compared to a mere 1,562 at the by-election, out of a total eligible electorate of about 76,000. The same candidate, too.

Interestingly, Labour’s highest vote-share in the constituency was not in the peak Blair years of 1997 or 2001 but in 2017, when Corbyn was Labour Party leader. 27.1%.

The lowest Labour share before this by-election came in 2010 (8.9%).

This is not, by any stretch, a good result for Jew-lobby or Israel-lobby puppet Keir Starmer. Even in 2019, the same Labour candidate managed 19.5%, over five times better than at this by-election. Some of the fall was no doubt by reason of (arguably) intelligent tactical voting; not all, though.

The four pseudo-national parties standing only managed 2.3%, taking all four together (Reform UK being top, at 1.1%).

Conclusion? “Conservatives” despised, and fake “Labour” also despised. As to the LibDem victors, as on previous occasions they have managed to present themselves as some kind of alternative, in the absence of a real one.

Wakefield by-election

The Wakefield by-election requires less analysis. The Labour candidate won easily. Factors were the imprisonment of the former (Con) MP for sexual assault on boys, and the general disenchantment with the Boris-idiot government, in a constituency which has returned Labour MPs since 1932, with the exception of 2019.

The high point for Labour was 1966 (65.39%). Sometimes, however, the margin of victory has been narrow. In recent decades, the Labour vote has been in general but slow decline. Even this by-election resulted in only 47.9%, about the same level as in most recent general elections.

It seems clear that, while the Labour vote-share did increase from 2019 (47.9% from 39.8%), that increase is quite modest. The Conservative decrease was rather greater. Seems that abstentions of former Con voters, rather than switches to Lab, were the drivers here.

As for the plethora of other candidates, only a local Pakistani independent saved his deposit (7.6%). The Yorkshire Party managed 4.3%.

The five broadly “nationalist” or pseudo-nationalist candidates got about 5% as a bloc, the top was Reform UK, on 1.9%, the lowest being Jayda Fransen, standing as Independent, with 0.1% (23 actual votes, out of a turnout of 27,466).

Labour will no doubt hail the Wakefield by-election result as “the Red Wall coming home” or some such. I think not. The Labour result was unspectacular in all the circumstances. I note that the Labour candidate was white English (albeit gay, so ticking at least one “woke” box). It may be that many English voters voted for him partly on the basis that he is white (Wakefield is about 90% white).

The two by-election results will be an unwelcome if not unexpected blow to Boris-idiot, who is hiding in Rwanda (presumably unable to find a fridge this time).

All the same, Labour’s performance has been pretty underwhelming; dull in Wakefield, and (despite the tactical voting aspect) disastrous in Tiverton/Honiton.

I should say that, if the Conservative Party can ditch Boris-idiot, and then somehow manage to find a leader at least not completely hopeless, they might well be able to fend off a Labour victory in 2023 or 2024.

Some good news for once

The world is not without kind people” [Russian proverb].

Tweets seen

What a bad joke news such as that displayed above makes of a century of “Irish nationalism”. Sinn Fein members on their knees for “Black Lives Matter” nonsense, masked, muzzled, and pathetic; and Ireland ruled by a gay half-Indian. De Valera must be spinning in his boggy grave.

As already said herein, the idiot posing as Prime Minister was unable to find a fridge in which to hide, so went to Rwanda.

Jesus H. Christ! Are they day-trippers, or did they just land in rubber boats?

…and that includes serving the Jew-Zionist lobby, eg in the UK.

…and all that can be done is to talk about it online…

Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jun/24/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-hails-eu-decision-russian-forces-encircle-troops-in-lysychansk-kyiv-officials-say-live-news

Russian has taken Severodonetsk. Ukrainian troops still alive and not captured have withdrawn.

We hear less now from msm (and UK military) mediocrities about how Ukraine is winning the war etc. Reality is breaking through, gradually.

Hard to believe the number of “bring it on” idiots in the UK, whose “analysis” seems to consist of “if we get hit, so does Russia“, as if that makes the incineration of their own homes, families and way of life (and themselves) somehow OK, because people in Russia will die too. Of course, they are brainwashed by warmongering propaganda, as were their ancestors in 1939 and 1914 (etc). That, however, was before the nuclear missile had been invented.

Ukraine is not our fight. Ukraine has only been a “state”, a more or less “failed state”, for 30 years. It is shambolic, corrupt, Jew-ridden to the core, and is no “free” “democracy”. The existing “government” of the Jew Zelensky has no legitimacy, and has arrested, and even shot, its most significant opponents. Eleven or more political opposition parties have been closed down by force. Its citizens are among the poorest in Europe, too.

Britain has no historical or other ties to Ukraine, either.

This is a full-on NWO/ZOG strategic and propaganda operation.

Late tweets

When I was in the USA in the early 1990s, I was struck by the fanatical feminism that pervaded the society, and which fanatically supported abortion. Both connected trends were largely if not entirely triggered, from the late 1950s, by Jewish women writers and “activists”. “They” always seem to be at the forefront of the collapse of white Western societies. They try to do the same in Russia but have encountered pushback.

Again, “they” are at the forefront of support for and organization of the migration invasion.

Ha ha! Send those idiots at Glastonbury to the Eastern Front! “Diesen Befehl kommt direkt vom Fuhrer!“…

Well, one can dream…

Late music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Medtner]

10 thoughts on “Diary Blog, 24 June 2022, with analysis of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election result”

  1. Wonderful news about the cat “Chubbs”! Although I could be described as an animal lover, I have a soft spot for cats. I adore them. I will not spoil the moment by commenting on the political situation in the UK or Europe. Long live “Chubbs”!

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      1. Apparently, the former MP for Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish, was quite a conscientious one and pretty well-regarded in the seat, especially amongst the farming community. Whilst he should obviously not have looked at porn in the House of Commons he did resign relatively quickly without being pushed so some credit should be given to him for that. If Boris had been in a similar position he would have hung on for dear life lacking common decency and even the most basic level of personal integrity as he does.

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      2. John:
        Yes, at least the former MP had the decency to fall on his sword almost at once, something Levantine “Boris” would never do. I dare say that the wife of the ex-MP had a few choice things to say to her husband about both his behaviour and the consequences (loss of a well-paid and —usually— secure near-sinecure).

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  2. The globalist, open borders supporting, ‘British’ lying press (lugenpresse) as the Germans would say) report that the Tory defeat in Tiverton and Honiton was the biggest by election upset in history.

    They are only ‘right’ if you take into account the NUMERICAL Tory majority which was 24,200 or so votes over Labour and about another three thousand over the Lib Dems.

    The true measure to take note of is what the Tory PERCENTAGE MAJORITY was which was about 40% over second place Labour and around 45% over the third placed Lib Dems.

    You go by PERCENTAGE MAJORITIES NOT NUMERICAL ones since halving that figure will give you the percentage ‘swing’ the party in second place needs to overcome to win a seat.

    Numerical majorities are not an accurate guide since every seat doesn’t have the exact same number of potential voters in them and, of course, turnout normally varies a bit between every general election.

    It was certainly a very bad Tory defeat but it wasn’t the worst in
    percentage terms. Christchurch in 1993 remains the all time biggest by election defeat inflicted by the Liberal Democrats or the former Liberal Party upon the CON Party.

    The ‘swing’ then was 35.4% whereas last night it was 29.9% and at North Shropshire a few months ago it was 34.2%.

    The Tory vote held up a bit better in Tiverton and Honiton and fell by 21.8% as opposed to North Shropshire’s fall of 31.1%. The Conservative percentage vote share fell by 32.2% at Christchurch.

    Turnout was down from the general election figure of 71.9% as it normally is but was still a relatively healthy 52.3%.

    It appears that the fairly good turnout helped the Tories prevent an even more calamitous defeat. One of the neighbouring seats ie East Devon apparently has the largest number of registered voters aged over 65 in the country and that age group is the strongest one by some margin for the Tories now (that age gap in voting has always existed but has grown hugely over the last few years). No doubt Tiverton and Honiton also has an electorate more elderly than average hence the relatively good turnout and the Tory vote holding up better than in recent by-elections.

    A huge amount of tactical voting by the Labour supporters in the seat helped the Liberal Democrats to their impressive victory.

    This by election result is a shocking defeat and broadly equivalent to that of Newbury in 1993 (a ‘swing’ to the Liberal Democrats of 28.4% from the Tories). It shows there is growing disillusionment and disgust with this government and with Coco The Clown in particular but that the situation is still, just about, recoverable with a decent new leader in place and a clear out of that dud cabinet.

    Going forward it is renewed practice of Labour and Lib Dem voters to ‘gang-up’ upon the Tories which should concern Tory MPs the most.

    Very effectively as this by-election and that of Chesham and Amersham showed they are voting tactically in a devastating and very effective way.

    The Tories could lose power by this one measure alone next time. In 1997, for example, they lost around 30 odd extra seats than they would have done normally because there was a lot of tactical voting in that election.

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  3. Re my point about PERCENTAGE majorities and not NUMERICAL ones ie my seat of Brentwood and Ongar is the Tory Party’s FIFTH safest in the land by its numerical majority of 29,065 over Labour (with the Liberal Democrats in third place by the miniscule margin of just 60 odd votes or so) but by PERCENTAGE majority it is the Conservative Party’s TENTH safest with a percentage majority of 55% and with one of their highest vote shares of 68%.

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  4. Yes, Wakefield was not a hugely impressive result by Labour: their vote share increased rather modestly when the Tory vote fell by 17%.

    I wonder how many voted Labour despite not being inspired by the party because, for once, they allowed an Englishman to be their candidate and how many were put off voting for the official Coco The severely incompetent Clown Party’s Asian candidate who was, even by normal Asian Tory standards, a bit weird and seemingly doing virtually everything possible to not win ie his Harold Shipman and Tories remarks

    The Labour Party, as you say, should be doing a great deal better considering we have a horrifically incompetent cabinet with the worst Home Secretary in British history who I am convinced is a Labour/Lib Dem infliltrator, an international embarrassment/total buffoon as PM and a corrupt and officially criminal extra from ‘The Jewel In The Crown’ as Chancellor.

    Labour is not inspiring people but neither are the fake Conservatives.

    Labour is still on course to dislodge this shambolic government from office not through winning a majority for themselves but through the fact the CONS are the ‘Billy No Mates’ of British politics. Hell, even the not too politically savvy DUP have seemingly wizened-up to the fact that the CON Party is not to be trusted under the buffoon, and considering the despicable way they were treated by Boris and company and consequently will be loath to prop them up in a hung parliament.

    Unlike Labour the CON Party’s only real chance of being in office is to win power OUTRIGHT. Fail to win a majority and they are out of office.

    Something for your average Tory MP think about! If I were one of those people I would be sharpening a knife ready to plunge it into the buffoon’s back because I think it is a pretty well established electoral fact that after these by elections and other evidence Boris is a confirmed vote LOSER.

    The only way the Tories will win next time is to inspire people to vote for them more than Labour can enthuse potential Labour voters. Under this PM and with this dud cabinet and especially because of Labour/Lib Dem infliltrator Priti Awful there is zero chance of doing that.

    Time for this incoherent and massively out of his depth cretin of a PM to go and be replaced by Jeremy Hunt who would, hopefully, sack virtually all those dud ministers and especially get rid of ‘The Wicked Witch of Witham’ and replace her with a decent and genuinely Right-wing Home Secretary.

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