Tag Archives: Conservatives

Party Politics, Uncategorized

The Newport West By-Election

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On 4 April 2019, a by-election will be held at Newport West, the former seat of Labour MP Paul Flynn, who died recently.

Paul Flynn was generally well-regarded, except by the Jew-Zionists, who deplored his principled opposition to Israel and to, in 2013, (the then) H.M. Ambassador to Israel appointed despite being a Jew and admitted Zionist (and so perhaps having dual or conflicted loyalties: see Notes, below). Flynn retweeted my tweets once or twice, I think, when I still had a Twitter account, but also criticized me once. Well, de mortuis nihil nisi bonum, so we’ll say no more of that.

Newport West

The constituency was created in 1983. It was won that year by the Conservatives, who received 38% of votes cast (Labour 36.6%, Liberal Party 24.2%, and Plaid Cymru 1.2%). That result turned out to be anomalous, in that Paul Flynn won for Labour in 1987 and held the seat until his recent death.

This is a Lab-Con marginal. The Liberal Democrats peaked in 2005 at 17.9% (third place), plateaued at a similar figure in 2010, slumped to 3.9% in 2015 (fifth place) and collapsed further (to 2.2%, again fifth-placed) in 2017.

Plaid Cymru is irrelevant here, peaking at 7.2% in 2001 but usually found at or near the bottom of the poll at under 2% (and sometimes under 1%).

UKIP peaked here in 2015 at 15.2% (third) and again achieved a third place in 2017, but on a miserable 2.5%.

Other candidates have stood occasionally over the years (Green, Referendum Party, BNP and Independents), but are not even marginally significant (BNP 3% in 2010, beating UKIP).

As to the only significant contenders, Labour and Conservative, Labour’s vote peaked in 1997 at 60.5%; its lowest ebb (apart from 1983) was in 2015 (41.2%). So much for the “personal vote”. After Corbyn replaced Miliband as Labour Leader, Labour’s vote increased, in 2017, to 52.3%.

The Conservative Party vote stood lowest in 1997 (24.4%) and highest in 1987 (40.1%). Its 2017 vote, at 39.3%, was the Con best since 1987, though the Con vote has held up above 30% (perhaps surprisingly so) since 2010.

Opinion

There are several reasons to think that the Labour vote will sink back: a new and untested candidate, the death of a fairly popular longstanding MP, Labour’s perceived pro-mass-immigration stance. Also, the fact that Labour is sending out mixed messages about Brexit in a constituency which voted Leave more heavily than the UK average (nearly 54%). The “Corbyn factor” seems, so far, to have been a positive rather than a negative.

If I were putting money on this, I should probably still back Labour to win, though the Conservative candidate may do well and might just do it. As to the others, they can probably all easily be written off. The interesting side-bet will be how high or low UKIP scores. My guess? Under 5%, anyway (if UKIP stands at all; if not, the Con candidate will be boosted, probably).

Notes

The 2016 EU Referendum results were not directly voted for or collated by constituency, and in Wales the vote was arranged by reference to local authority boundaries, in this case designated as “Newport”, not “Newport West”. I have taken the Leave vote relating to Newport West as standing at or about 54%, but other estimates have it as about 56%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#List_of_constituency_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/analysis/102182/analysis-brexit-set-dominate-newport-west

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/17465965.newport-west-by-election-to-be-held-on-april-4-following-death-of-paul-flynn/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Flynn_(politician)

Afterthought, 1 March 2019

Candidates have not yet declared. It is unknown whether any candidates of a broadly “nationalist” character will stand. UKIP is a possible but not inevitable contender. What would be significant would be anyone standing for the “Independent Group” of MPs. That group is not yet registered as a party (and may never be); until it is, it cannot put up candidates under “Independent Group”, but only as “Independent”. Having said that, if a candidate were to be endorsed on TV etc by the rebel MPs as the candidate, in effect, of the Group, then that would have an effect. It would split the Labour vote and almost certainly let in the Conservative candidate, though it is just on the fringe of possibility that, in a 3-way split of main candidates, the (in effect) IG candidate might just win. Hard to see it happening but not totally impossible.

My guess is that the “Independent Group” will not put up a quasi-IG candidate, because

  • voters would not know what his/her policy views might be (except pro-EU Remain, which is the minority view in Newport West);
  • there would be little time in which to select a candidate and, because of the disorganized way in which IG has been established (step up, Chuka Umunna…), there are no selection procedures in place;
  • any IG candidate (in all but name) would be likely to go down in flames, so this is a battle that the IG MPs will probably sidestep.

Update, 4 March 2019

The candidature listing is still open. So far, 6 candidates have declared: Conservative, Labour, Plaid Cymru, Green, and two wild cards, “Renew” and “Abolish the Welsh Assembly”. The obvious non-declarers, so far, are the LibDems, UKIP and anyone adherent to the “Independent Group”. However, as stated, there is still time in which to declare.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47414610

Update, 6 March 2019

Update, 9 March 2019

The candidate list is now complete:

  • Labour – Ruth Jones
  • Conservatives – Matthew Evans
  • UKIP – Neil Hamilton
  • Plaid Cymru – Jonathan Clark
  • Welsh Liberal Democrats – Ryan Jones
  • Green Party – Amelia Womack
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party – Richard Suchorzewski
  • Renew – June Davies
  • SDP – Ian McLean
  • The For Britain Movement – Hugh Nicklin
  • Democrats and Veterans Party – Phillip Taylor

I see no reason to alter my view of the contest as expressed in the blog.

Update, 30 March 2019

I was just considering to what extent, if any, the meltdown of the House of Commons over and around Brexit will affect this by-election. The obvious protest vote would be for UKIP, which as noted above only scored 2.5% in 2017, though it managed 15.2% at its 2015 peak. Both were 3rd places. To win, UKIP has to beat both main System parties. On paper, that is near-impossible, but we are in interesting times.

Update, 2 April 2019

Update, 5 April 2019

The result was that Labour won with nearly 40% of the vote, but less than 38% of those eligible could be bothered to vote. Labour’s candidate was thus endorsed by only about 15% of those eligible.

The Conservatives came a fairly but not very close second. UKIP came third (again). “For Britain Movement” got less than 1% and came right at the bottom of the list of 11 candidates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Tactical Voting, the Only Way Around the First-Past-The-Post Electoral System (but it may be pointless anyway)

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The UK has, famously or infamously, a First Past The Post [FPTP] electoral system. Winner takes all. There was some logic supporting such a system in, say, the 1950s, when over 90% of the electorate of the UK voted Conservative, Labour or Liberal, and in fact almost entirely for the first two. In the 1950 General Election, nearly 97% of those who voted voted for the “three main parties”. At that time, the FPTP system provided stability and a certainty of result in most general elections. Indeed, most UK adults were actually members of those parties. Even as late as 1983, 65% of UK adults belonged to a political party, mostly the “big three” and in fact mostly the “big two”. That contrasts with somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5% now, in 2019.

The figures are not entirely what they seem, of course: millions were inducted into the Labour Party by default, via their trade union membership (itself then compulsory in many industries and occupations); the Conservative Party was also packed by people who joined at least partly because they wanted to belong to Conservative clubs, i.e. social clubs (with bars). Labour also had social clubs: as it might be, the Toytown Working Man’s Club or Labour Club. Millions also belonged to the Young Conservatives (a mainly social organization and, unofficially, dating forum).

The above reflected the relative homogeneity of the UK population at the time. That homogeneity and cohesion has been shattered by social and demographic changes. We see now that FPTP voting does not reflect even the votes cast, let alone wider opinion. The chart below, for example, shows the votes cast in the South East of England, vis a vis Westminster seats won, in the 2015 General Election. Even that chart does not tell the full story, leaving out the views of those who had to compromise because there was no party which reflected their true views standing in the particular constituency: they therefore voted for the nearest party to them, ideologically, or just refused to vote (33.6% of those eligible to vote did not vote! I wonder what kind of party might capture that more-than-a-third of eligible voters?)

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Also, we see that the way in which constituencies are sliced-up is a fairly arbitrary one:

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The Boundary Commissions for the four UK countries delineate the constituency boundaries in such a way as to preserve a notional “balance”, a completely outdated one, based on that 1950s paradigm. So we see that some constituencies are “safe” Conservative or Labour and that a few are or were in the past Liberal Democrat/Liberal . A minority of seats are designed to be “marginal”, whether Con-Lab, Con-LibDem, LibDem-Lab.

The result of the above system is that, at time of writing, 80% of voters do not think that any party speaks for their views or for them.

To put it another way, there is a battle between anger and apathy.

Obviously, there should be a more responsive electoral system, based on one of the proportional voting systems already in use in many countries. However, FPTP is still the voting system in use in the UK for Westminster elections. That being so, tactical voting is the only way in which the ordinary voter can influence the result.

Take a fairly random example, Chesterfield, the constituency of Tony Benn for many years. Chesterfield, first contested in the 1880s, has been regarded as a safe Labour seat for most of that time. The Conservatives won it only once, in 1931, when the Liberals, who had won the seat several times previously, declined to stand. The Liberal Democrats won in 2001 and 2005, after the retirement of Tony Benn. Labour won again in 2010, 2015 and 2017.

The point here is that Labour has in most Chesterfield elections won, when it has won, because the anti-Labour vote was split, usually between Liberal Democrat and Conservative, in the past between Liberal and Conservative, and once only (2015) among LibDem, Conservative and UKIP (which attained a strong 3rd place).

Tactical voting could, at times, in fact quite often, have prevented Labour from winning Chesterfield. The same is true in many Lab or Con seats across the country.

The sting in the tail is that, yes, the voter can vote tactically, but all that does, usually, is to replace one System dummy with another, and one label with another. In a situation where 80% of voters think that no System party represents them or speaks for them, that is cold comfort.

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Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesterfield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_United_Kingdom_general_election

 

historical, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Will Both Main Parties of the System Split? Will New Parties Emerge?

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We hear rumblings about Labour and possibly the Conservatives splitting and thus engendering a new “Centrist” party, possibly even two new parties. If that were to happen, it would of course be good from the social-national viewpoint. We need the political monolith to crumble and to fracture.

We see from the latest polling that, when asked who would be better as Prime Minister of the UK, 39% answer Theresa May, 19% prefer Jeremy Corbyn, but 40% say Don’t Know. This is perhaps a clearer picture of the real state of public opinion than “which party will you vote for at the next general election?”, which, at present, polls as seen below:

The variations in “main party” support show uncertainty but also dissatisfaction. That is surely the mood today: a useless and unpleasant Government, a useless and half-crazed Opposition, and no other party with the support or credibility to present an alternative. Another very recent poll indicated that nearly 80% of voters say that none of the “main parties” speak for them or represent them (I am assuming that the LibDems are also still taken to be a “main party” despite the obvious fact that the LDs are totally washed-up)..

We are told that there may be splintering, with MPs from both of the (real) main System parties ready to jump ship.

Labour Party

I have blogged previously (see my WordPress archive) about how I feel that supernatural forces (yes, sounds weird, but look at what happened, in detail…) put Corbyn –who in himself is entirely unfitted– into office as Labour leader. Looked at with cold objectivity, Corbyn is lucky to be an MP, let alone the leader of his party: his school career was an abject failure, and his tertiary education (at a poor polytechnic, reading Trade Union Studies, a real Mickey Mouse degree), lasted only a year before he dropped out. His work history before he became an MP was likewise risible: he spent a few weeks as a reporter for a rural local newspaper in Shropshire, the Newport and Market Drayton Advertiser (does anything really ever happen in such bucolic surroundings?) before, at age 19, spending 2 years or so overseas, firstly –for 1 year– as a youth worker and teacher of geography in Jamaica for the VSO aid organization (volunteers get flights, accommodation and pocket money); he then toured Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.

To digress a little into the speculative, was this relatively early exposure to the women of Jamaica and South America a factor in Corbyn’s later sexual interest in blacks and Latinas? He had, famously, an affair with Diane Abbott, and later married a Chilean political dissident, with whom he had two children.

After returning to the UK, Corbyn embarked on his “Trade Union Studies” Mickey Mouse degree, but, as noted, dropped out after one year. He then became a trade union organizer, mostly for NUPE, the union which mainly consisted of lower-paid public sector workers, such as hospital cleaners. That seems to have lasted months rather than years.

Incredibly, despite his very poor academic and work background, he was appointed a member of a district health authority at the age of 23 or 24. He also became a Labour councillor. He was elected to Parliament nearly a decade later, at age 33, in 1983.

Corbyn has never organized anything effectively beyond, arguably, a few small demonstrations and marches. The recent revelations from his former wives and associates to that effect and in respect of his scarcely ever reading a book, or even bits and pieces (not even Marxist theory etc), certainly chime with my view, formed mostly over the past few years (though I was aware of him since the 1980s), that he is intellectually poor, no great thinker, and not even passably interested in ideas (that was where I felt that Corbyn’s predecessor, Ed Miliband, scored to some extent, albeit that of course I would never in any way “endorse” a Jew as a UK political leader).

It is clear that Corbyn, and so Corbyn-Labour, has few policy ideas beyond what amount to a rehash of the Labour Party policies of the 1970s and 1980s, though refreshed slightly via books such as The Spirit Level and theoretical policies such as Basic Income (not that I myself oppose those, as far as they go).

One funny aspect of the Corbyn/Labour debate is that many “Corbynists” or “Corbynites” spend much time decrying the “racism” of (real/white) British people, yet think that the fact that Corbyn is always surrounded by blacks and browns (both in and outside Parliament) will have no effect on whether voters will decide to support Labour at the next General Election! A word to the wise….it will.

The Jew-Zionist element of course “has it in for” Corbyn and so Labour. Most of the MPs who are anti-Corbyn most actively are Jews and/or are pro-Jew, pro-Israel and/or have received monies from Israel or Israeli sources in the past (or still do). There have been repeated attempts to unseat Corbyn as Labour leader. These have all failed, but have obviously damaged Labour’s standing among the voters. Now there is persistent media chatter about the formation of a breakaway party. The Zionist or pro-Zionist MPs are in the forefront. How many will actually leave Labour is doubtful. Four or five are regularly mentioned in the msm, always including half-Nigerian fathead Chuka Umunna, who was so overwhelmed by scrutiny of his private life when he stood for the Labour leadership in 2015 that he burst into tears and withdrew, only 3 days in. Very impressive…

It has to be doubted whether even the most anti-Corbyn MPs, such as Zionist Luciana Berger, will abandon the Labour label, when push comes to shove. I am sure that she and others will have noted the fate that overtook teen-girl-spanking Simon Danczuk after he was deselected: as Labour candidate in 2015, he received 20,961 votes, but as Independent in 2017, only 883. Danczuk came 5th out of 6 candidates and, with a vote-share of only 1.8%, lost his deposit. Danczuk now seems to tweet about Bangladesh, so is presumably being paid to promote Bangladeshi things somehow, while his ridiculous ex-wife, Karen, has lost her well-paid fake job as Danczuk’s “assistant” and is either living on the dole or subsisting off occasional “z-list celeb” tabloid stories about her grisly sex life, romances, exercise routine etc. No wonder that the “redtop” Press is sliding to oblivion!

It may be that only MPs who have already been chucked out of Labour, or who face deselection, or who jumped before they were pushed (such as pro-Israel sex-pest John Woodcock), will take the shilling (or shekel). [for more about Woodcock, see Notes, below]

I doubt that many if any Labour MPs in safe-ish Labour seats will jump ship`to stand as candidates for a new “Centrist” party, especially if it is mainly Jewish in MPs and membership (thus creating the impression of being a doomed political ghetto). It could only succeed if at least a significant minority of MPs were to join; say 30. Fewer than that and the new party would have no credibility with the electorate. In any event, in few constituencies would such a party have a chance of success. More likely, the new party would open up the contest, allowing unexpected candidates to win. In some cases, the winner will be the Conservative candidate.

Many older people (like me now, I suppose!) recall the SDP and its swift demise: in 1981, the SDP had 29 MPs, all except one owing their “SDP” seats to having been elected under the Labour banner (the one exception was a Conservative). In the first general electoral test, in 1983, the 29 were whittled down to 6, then again to 5 in 1987.

Conservative Party

One reliable fact to hang on to in respect of the misnamed Conservative Party is that most of its MPs are, and have long been, spineless. Not for nothing was Mrs Thatcher described as “the only man in the Cabinet”. Few will throw away safe seats with majorities of thousands (in some cases tens of thousands) in order to protest about Brexit (whether from a Remain or Leave direction). One of the few might be Anna Soubry, who with her small majority of 869 may have little to lose. Still, one has to ask whether she would really join with even pro-Zionist “Labour” “centrists” in a new party, especially if few (or no) other Conservative Party MPs join her. The Member for Broxtowe (or, as I prefer, “the Member for Plymouth and Angostura”) has little incentive to jump, really, at the age of 62. Still, you never know.

Conclusion

This is not going to happen. If I am wrong on that and it does happen, the MP contingent will be all or almost all from Labour. The SDP all over again.

One aspect which I think will sink the supposed “centrists” is that people are starting to get very angry in the UK, especially England, about immigration and its negative consequences, about Jew-Zionist influence and control over mass media, politics, law etc, about Brexit and how the 2016 Referendum result has been betrayed, and about how this rotten “Conservative” government has failed to organize anything in respect of it; also about how the government and politicized police are allowing serious crime to flourish while at the same time persecuting people who make speeches (Jez Turner) or sing satirical songs (Alison Chabloz) or even post silly Internet jokes (“Count Dankula”). People are sick of potholed roads, of public transport both expensive and packed (often with non-whites), of being ripped off by utility companies, banks, you name it.

In other words, people want solutions, even “extreme” ones, not another version of what already exists. In the next few years will arrive the best chance for social nationalism since the 1930s.

 

Notes

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6686639/Jeremy-Corbyn-drove-friends-flat-WANTED-Diane-Abbott-naked-bed.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6685423/How-Jeremy-Corbyns-joyless-approach-life-drove-wife-away-affair-Diane-Abbott.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)

https://www.ft.com/content/f9b00620-2f9c-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochdale_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/john-woodcock-barrow-and-furness-and-the-general-election-2017/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Soubry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broxtowe_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/15/chuka-umunna-withdraws-from-labour-leadership-contest

Update, 18 February 2019

Well, it seems that I was wrong about Luciana Berger being unlikely to leave Labour. She has resigned from Labour (though not as MP), alongside useless creature Chuka Umunna, Angela Smith, Ann Coffey, Chris Leslie, Mike Gapes and Gavin Shuker. Out of the seven, three Jewish, one or two maybe part or “crypto”. The others are all doormats for Zionist cabals.

I shall post a separate blog post about this now, but I note a few points:

  • Mike Gapes MP, a Zionist Jew (who blocked me on Twitter without my ever having tweeted to him);
  • Chuka Umunna MP (see post above) and: “In August 2018, The Guardian reported that “Umunna and fellow Labour MP Chris Leslie, are widely believed to be laying the groundwork for the creation of a new [political] party although both have denied this.”[68] In October 2018, it was announced that Umunna would serve as the chairman of a new centrist think tank called Progressive Centre UK. It was revealed that he would be earning £65,000 a year for his work on the advisory board” [Wikipedia]; and “Umunna is associated with the Labour Friends of Israel; along with Liam Byrne, he made an official visit to Israel in October 2012 as part of the LFI’s UK-Israel Economic Dialogue group” [Wikipedia];
  • Angela Smith MP: pro-Zionist, very very interested in money (an expenses cheat)…“[Angela Smith] is one of 98 MPs who voted unsuccessfully to keep their expense details secret in 2007. She defended her vote on the grounds that it would help member-constituent confidentiality, and to help prevent the private addresses of MP’s being readily available to the public.[18]In 2009, Smith was one of the MPs whose expenses were highlighted by The Daily Telegraph during the Parliamentary expenses scandal, as she had submitted expenses claims for four beds for a one bedroom flat in London.[19]

    Smith employs her husband as her Senior Parliamentary Assistant on a salary up to £40,000 [now £50,000].[20] The practice of MPs employing family members has been criticised by some sections of the media on the lines that it promotes nepotism.[21][22] Although MPs who were first elected in 2017 have been banned from employing family members, the restriction is not retrospective – meaning that Smith’s employment of her husband is lawful.” [Wikipedia];

  • Gavin Shuker MP, a pro-Zionist of Jewish or part-Jewish origins, though he was also apparently a “pastor” of some small Christian sect in Luton at one time;
  • Ann Coffey MP: pro-Zionist. “During the expenses scandal of 2009 it was revealed that Anne Coffey claimed £1000 per month for the interest on the mortgage of her London home and £160 per month for a cleaner.[8][9] In addition to her salary of £60,000 in 2007 she claimed £150,000 for staff salaries and office costs plus reimbursable expenses” [Wikipedia];
  • Luciana Berger MP: prominent Zionist Jewess;
  • Chris Leslie MP: careerist Blair-Brown drone and pro-Zionist.

Thoughts about the resignations:

The seven MPs were almost all living on borrowed time. Luciana Berger faced a (withdrawn) vote of no-confidence only recently. Mike Gapes is 66 (only 4 years older than me, but he looks about 20 years older). Ann Coffey is 72. The others were facing possible deselection. Chris Leslie, a typical bland careerist, obviously saw that his career in Parliament had ground to a halt, with no possibility of ministerial preferment even in a Labour government.

This is a Zionist group mass media event rather than a Labour “split”. Labour still has 241 MPs. The 7 departees will all lose their seats at the next general election. They have not formed a party, as yet anyway, and, as I blogged, would have no chance of success if they did.

Party Politics, Uncategorized

Is the Theresa May Government About To Crash Out?

23 Comments

This was the Daily Mail report today:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6585357/Bercows-secret-kill-Brexit-plot-Tory-saboteur-No-10-warns-PM-fall-Wednesday.html

Bloomberg analysis of Theresa May’s difficulties:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/ministers-tell-may-to-ask-corbyn-for-help-when-brexit-deal-dies

There now seems to be a serious chance that there will be a general election in the first few months of 2019, something I predicted (though not with great confidence) in previous blogs over the past year.

In previous blog posts, even recently, my prediction was that any general election in 2018 or 2019 would result in a hung Parliament but with Labour as largest party. The end result would then probably be a Labour minority government.

The Daily Mail seems to think that an early 2019 General Election, possibly as early as March, would result in a crashing defeat for the Conservative Party.

What has caused this situation is not so much Brexit, or the fear of Brexit, as the sheer incompetence of the present Government. Look at one of the least competent Cabinet Ministers (even in a poor Cabinet), Chris Grayling, who has been a member of this Cabinet and the two previous ones! A typically-psychopathic type, if I may play the armchair psychologist, who has messed-up in every job that he has ever had. Here he is explaining or rather not explaining what the Government will do if (when) Theresa May’s pathetic “deal” is rejected by the Commons:

Incompetence is a killer vote-loser for any government. Taking the years 2010-2019 as effectively one government and not three, we can see incredible incompetence across the board, from social security/”welfare” issues, pensions, HS2, transport (especially rail) generally, nuclear power, the Brexit mess (failure to prepare for a WTO Brexit from the beginning), continuing mass immigration, NHS issues…you name it.

True, many (including me) have little confidence in the competence of any Corbyn-led Labour government, but will the voters prefer to vote for Corbyn-Labour, which might be incompetent, or for a “Conservative” Party which has been proven, in spades, to be incompetent and incapable?

What about Brexit itself? It may be that Brexit, though certainly a major issue for the voters, will not play to the decisive advantage of either party. About half the country favour Remain, about half prefer Leave, with divisions in both main camps. It should be recalled, though, that “Brexit” and “Leave” are to some extent manifestations of dissatisfaction with the general way in which Britain is working, or rather not working for many many people.

My money at this stage is still on a hung Parliament with Labour as largest party, because there are huge numbers of people who will not vote Labour (ever, anyway, whatever), others who will not vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn, yet others who will not vote for a Labour Party in which deadheads such as Diane Abbott and Dawn Butler might well become Cabinet ministers.

Even psephologists struggle with election predictions. It is the “Glorious Uncertainty” of both the English racecourse and the (mainly) English electoral system. Raw percentages count for only so much, because of First Past The Post voting and the way that boundaries are sliced up.

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In the end, the “True Blue” and “Deepest Red” constituencies are not the deciders. The marginal constituencies decide. How many marginals depends. Some put true marginals at 50 (out of 650), others at 100 or even 150.

One has to make an educated guess. My guess is based on the fact that life has become progressively tougher (financially and in other ways) for most people over the past 8 years; in fact the past 10 years, 2 of which were Labour, but mostly the past 8, which have been years of “Conservative” rule. In those years, only the most wealthy or affluent 10%, maybe even 5%, have really prospered, as seen in the cartoon below from the days of the Con Coalition

b-cisxdiqaa7qj_-jpg-large

The roads are potholed, the railways expensive and chaotic, the social welfare system has become both cruel and shambolic, mass immigration continues all but unabated, education has become a joke, pay in real terms is greatly less than it was in 2010, let alone 2005, crime is often not even investigated by the police, and most local authorities are both cash-starved and incompetent. The Army has shrunk to 78,000 men (and women, now), and the same is true, mutatis mutandis, of Navy and RAF.

Does any of the above encourage people to vote Conservative? I think not. They might not all vote Labour, and there are no other options with much credibility, but it may be that enough people will either vote Labour or stay home to give Corbyn-Labour a majority. I am tempted to predict that. On balance, though, I think that I stick with hung Parliament as my present prediction, always recalling, as Harold Wilson famously said, that “a week is a long time in British politics”.

Below, an amusement: me aged 9 or maybe just turned 10, with then PM Harold Wilson. St. Mary’s, Scilly Isles, September 1966. I am the eldest boy in the photo.

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Party Politics, Uncategorized

The Lame Duck Government

6 Comments

At time of writing, it appears that Theresa May has seen off an attempt by the “Brexiteers” under Jacob Rees-Mogg to unseat her as Leader of the Conservative Party. The 48 letters necessary (15% of Conservative MPs) have as yet not been received by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. The present number received is unknown but thought to be somewhere around 30. To my mind, that establishes that

  • most Conservative MPs have the backbone of a jellyfish;
  • some Conservative MPs are afraid of doing anything that might precipitate a general election in which many would or might lose their seats;
  • some Conservative MPs are afraid that, in the absence of any credible challenger to Mrs. May, she would get over 50% of votes straight off and so not only beat off the challenge but (under applicable rules) be safe from challenge until late 2019 or early 2020 (depending on when the MPs were polled).

So we now look at the likely continuation of the Theresa May government at least into mid-2019; but will such a government be able to govern except in the formal sense?

Already (as I predicted), the Democratic Unionists [DUP] have fired warning shots by abstaining from votes and even voting against the Government. They, unsurprisingly, think that Theresa May is going to break —indeed, has already broken— the limited support agreement between the two parties. It seems clear that that inter-party agreement is running out of road. If the DUP does not support the Government, no matter that the DUP commands only 10 MPs, the Government’s legislative programme will be crippled (I am glad to note…). If, in addition to that, Conservative Brexiteers also fail to support the Government, then the Government is helpless.

Now we read that Amber Rudd, a dangerous and stupid woman just brought back into Cabinet by her friend Mrs. May, has said that, if the “deal” agreed between the EU and Mrs. May is not confirmed by the Commons, there might “have to be” a so-called “Final Referendum” on whether the UK remains in or leaves the EU.

So there we have it. It has happened before in other EU states: the people vote unexpectedly against the wishes of the EU, so the EU makes sure that there is another vote which changes the popular vote result. In the UK, there has been nonstop fear propaganda for two and a half years. Of course there may now be a popular majority for Remain! Vast sums have been spent frightening the life out of the British people and thousands of Remain whiners have spent their lives on social media backing that fear campaign.

What I take away from the above is that, for social nationalists, we are pretty close to having to say goodbye to the politics of constitutional democracy. Even when a limited measure of national sovereignty is clawed back, “they” make sure, by money, by msm and social media propaganda and by manipulation of the news agenda etc, that the popular will is over-ridden. Combine that with the high birth rate of the non-whites in the cities and you can see that traditional politics is largely a waste of time for us.

As for the present government, the chances are that, in the absence of a majority, it will soon cease to function as a legislating entity and will live out its remaining time as a purely executive one. That makes a Labour government even more likely at some point in the next few years. Apres? Le deluge…

Update, 15 December 2018

“It’s over. If Brexit happens at all – and for the first time I’m beginning to think it won’t – it will be on terms that keep the worst aspects of EU membership. Britain will be humbled in the eyes of the world, having tried to recover its independence and been faced down. The largest popular vote in our history will be disregarded, and the nation that exported representative government exposed as an oligarchy. Plus – and I know this sounds almost trivial next to those calamities, but it matters to me – the Conservative Party might never recover.” [Daniel Hannan MEP, writing in the Daily Telegraph]

Update, 22 December 2018

On 12 December 2018, the requisite number of letters having been received by the Secretary of the 1922 Committee, a No-Confidence vote was held. Theresa May was backed by 200 Conservative Party MPs; 117 voted against her. This equates to a split of 63%-37%. Theresa May is now safe from challenge until December 2019 (but may resign before that date).

Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Corbyn is Set For No.10

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Preamble

  • I am not, nor have I ever been, a member, supporter or voter for the Labour Party;
  • No feelings (of any importance) were hurt in the creation of this blog post

Background

The latest opinion polls have Labour at around 40%, with the Conservative Party at a couple of points ahead, perhaps only one point. This is remarkable, after a year (in fact three years) in which Labour has been pretty much demonized. The Jewish-Zionist element in the Press, on TV and radio, on social media too, has attacked Jeremy Corbyn and Labour nonstop, with a constant whine about “anti-Semitism” and other aspects of Corbyn’s and others’ supposed beliefs or behaviours.

At the same time, many Labour MPs, perhaps the majority, have tried on several occasions to unseat Corbyn and to install a Labour leader who is more acceptable to the Jewish-Zionist lobby. So active have been some “Labour”-label MPs in plotting against Corbyn that newspapers discovered that they rented a regular “safe house” in the countryside where they could conspire in secret.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-critic-mps-hold-13043018

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-labour-mps-plot-coup-against-corbyn-over-anti-semitism-row/

I have previously blogged about how it seemed “destined” for Corbyn and the anti-Zionists to take over Labour: how Corbyn was only able to be on the ballot paper the first time because several MPs who had no intention of voting for him yet nominated him! Even so, Corbyn only got the exact number of nominations he required (plus his own vote). That exactitude speaks to me of supernatural intervention (see my own similar experience of 1978 below this blog post).

Why is it necessary for Corbyn to lead Labour? Why would a Corbyn premiership be a good thing?

Until Corbyn took over as Labour leader, the Jewish-Zionist element controlled both main System parties in the UK. Now, “they” control only one, whereas Labour is fitfully breaking free (though its leaders still feel the need to offer lip-service to the “holocaust” narrative etc).

The best aspect of Corbyn leading Labour is that hundreds of thousands of recent Labour members and supporters now exist, many of whom have been radicalized, not so much by Corbyn or Labour as such, but by the fact that they now see through the Zionist influence and power working against and inside Labour (ex-Israel propaganda employee Ruth Smeeth MP, Jess Phillips MP, disgraced alleged sex pest John Woodcock MP, John Mann MP, Chuka Umunna MP etc). Those Labour supporters have in many cases been radicalized, ironically, by the sheer hate-filled dishonesty of the Zionist fanatics themselves. Those hundreds of thousands are not, and are not yet ready to go, overtly social-nationalist, but they have cast off most of the shackles of Zionist mind-control and that is very significant for the future.

A Corbyn-Labour government would take the whole UK politico-social matrix to the brink. Power would be cast into the hazard, and that can only be good for those of us sacrificing, thinking and fighting for the future in the as yet shadowy ranks of social nationalism.

Labour’s Chances

In 2022, boundary changes will reduce presently Labour seats by about 30. Only a few Conservative MPs will be affected (and the LibDems will be all but wiped out). Labour may struggle if 2022 is the date of the next General Election. However, there is every chance of a General Election in 2019, just as the possibly chaotic Brexit events are occurring. The economy is about to tank. Big investors are pulling out of the UK. London properties in the highest priced categories are not selling. Huge numbers of families are going to be hit even harder shortly by reason of the implementation of the botched Iain Dunce Duncan Smith “Universal Credit” “reform”. All of that plays to Labour’s advantage.

Against the above, all that the Conservative Party has in its quiver is yet more lip-service about controlling mass immigration (which the “Conservatives” have failed to do in 8 years; words are cheap…) and negative public relations about Corbyn, Labour etc. My assessment is that even the existence of Diane Abbott and other ethnic minority deadheads as potential Cabinet ministers (!) may not be enough to win over for the Conservative Party the floating voters in marginal seats, and they are the ones that count.

My conclusion is that, albeit probably on a minority-government basis, Labour will be in power and Corbyn in Downing Street before 2022 and quite likely by mid-2019.

Final Word

In the blog post above, I promised to give an example of when I myself was the subject of what might be called “Divine intervention”. I could give a number of examples, but here is one: after returning from Rhodesia in 1977, and doing some part-time or short-term jobs in the UK for a year or so, I conceived the idea in January 1979 of visiting a mountain in the far West of Ireland, on the Dingle Peninsula (then not the tourist destination that I believe it now is). I had no money at all, really, and the First Class rail and ship ticket would be £126 in the money of the time. At that moment, I received a tax refund, from work done at least 2 years previously, of exactly £126! I had not applied for any refund. Makes you think…

Update, 19 January 2022

Well, I was right about a general election in 2019, but wrong about the result of the General Election of 2019. I had, perhaps, underestimated the influence of Britain’s basically Jewish-controlled msm on the mass of the voters. Also, the msm was constantly puffing stupid “Boris” Johnson as a dynamic and charismatic “prime minister in waiting”.

We know that happened from there. “Boris” won that election, and has been pretty disastrous. Meanwhile, Labour was retaken by the Israel lobby under puppet Labour leader Keir Starmer.

Final note: those proposed boundary changes have been scrapped.

Deadhead MPs, elections, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

System MPs In The UK Parliament–Mediocrity (At Best)

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I was moved to write today because of a TV programme which I did not in fact see but which has been widely reported. On BBC1 Question Time, a “Conservative” MP, one Ross Thomson [Con, Aberdeen South], was put in his place by Kezia Dugdale, the former leader of Scottish Labour. Thomson had been claiming that the simplistic Universal Credit idea thought up by (incredibly thick) Iain Dunce Duncan Smith MP would “get people off benefits and into work”. Kezia Dugdale had to point out that, so far, 37% of people receiving Universal Credit are in fact employed (but underpaid). Thomson just ignored the facts and ploughed on, a characteristic of, especially, “Conservative” MPs of recent years (Priti Patel is another egregious example).

Reading the above, I was impelled to look up this Ross Thomson. I found that the little twerp (now 31) only ever worked outside politics for 2-3 years, which he spent working for Debenhams stores and in a call centre. Once he stepped onto the “politics” gravytrain in 2012 and at age 25 (as Aberdeen local councillor, then MSP, then MP), he gave up trying to (pretending to) make a living in the more usual way.

His Question Time humiliator, Kezia Dugdale, was herself only employed on the political fringe (as a campaign manager etc) for a while before becoming a full-time politico (finishing as disastrous leader of Scottish Labour: the System looks after its own— she is now a columnist for the Scottish Daily Record newspaper). It goes beyond the scope of this blog post to muse overlong as to why so many women in frontline UK politics are lesbians.

The above thoughts led on to my wondering, not for the first time, why mediocrity rules in UK politics. Indeed, to be merely mediocre at Westminster is to be winning! Most MPs and “peers” do not even achieve mediocrity but are disastrously poor in every way.

The main problem stems from the First Past The Post voting system, which was fine in the 19th Century —simple policies and issues, uneducated voters, clear party divisions— but is simply out of date and not fit for purpose today. In 21st Century Britain, someone can be pro-animal welfare, anti-mass immigration, for private enterprise but pro-State control or regulation of utilities and transport. For which party does that voter vote? Conservative? Labour? Green? UKIP? LibDem? The one-size-fits-all politics is not our reality any more.

Furthermore, the FPTP voting system means that, once the MP is in a seat, it is almost impossible to dislodge that person.

Then there is the selection procedure, which varies from party to party, but which (even in a supposedly non-System party such as the now-finished UKIP) excludes anyone thought “racist”, “anti-Semitic” etc. Also, it is to be noted that some of the worst MPs have come out of restricted shortlists such as the Conservative Party “A” List. Even so, the sheer lack of quality of Westminster candidates now is staggering. Take some fairly random examples that have caught my attention over the past few years:

  • Justin Tomlinson [Con, North Swindon]: a comprehensive school, followed by Oxford Brookes University (the old Oxford Poly), where he obtained a bog-standard “business” degree. After that, he managed a small nightclub in Swindon, Wiltshire, bearing the name “Eros”(!) as well as (according to his own CV…) operating “a small marketing business” and serving on the local council; elected MP 2010.
  • Louise Mensch [Con, Corby 2010-2012], a scribbler (in the past) of braindead “chick-lit” “novels”, who was placed on the Con “A” List by David Cameron-Levita. The people of Corby, her new seat, were sold a pup. She was a poor constituency MP and was accused, while on the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee, of being in the pocket of Rupert Murdoch (who later employed her as a columnist). She had to admit, belatedly, to have been an abuser of hard drugs which “had messed with her head”, one possible reason why she was and is known as someone who frequently gets even basic historical and political facts wrong. Resigned as MP in 2012 after about 18 months in the position and moved to New York (domicile of her Jewish American second husband), where she failed in various internet activities and was employed for a while as “columnist” for the UK Sun “newspaper” before eventually being dismissed or at any rate not retained.

LouiseMenschDrugging

  • Liz Kendall MP [Lab, Leicester West]. On paper well-qualified to be an MP, the reality is that this woman is as thick as two short planks, as her appearances on BBC This Week have made painfully obvious. Pro-Israel to the hilt (possibly part-Jewish), her 4.5% vote in the Labour leadership contest made her a laughing stock.
  • Iain Duncan Smith MP [Con, Chingford]: this part-Japanese serial liar and obvious sociopath has managed to parlay a sub-par secondary education (at “secondary modern” and Merchant Navy schools) and six years as a (surely mis-gazetted?) Guards officer (where he stuck at Lieutenant) into becoming an MP and, in time, Cabinet Minister! His faked CV (claiming degrees from the University of Perugia and the so-called “Dunchurch School of Management”) became notorious only after he had become politically prominent. His cretinous attempts to “reform” the “welfare” system have led to administrative chaos, dishonesty (flowing from the top…) and misery for millions. A stupid, greedy and evil man.
  • Diane Abbott [Lab, Hackney North and Stoke Newington]: Jamaican; somehow got into Cambridge University, where she scraped a degree in History. Less than two years as fast-track trainee at the Home Office (obviously unable to hack it), then a “race relations officer” for the then NCCL; then she did some researcher and press jobs for a few years. A ghastly woman: pro-abortion, a moneygrubber, expenses blodger and freeloader, openly anti-white. Now quite possibly Home Secretary of a Corbyn-Labour government!DKWRQw3WsAIEnNI

I could list dozens, possibly hundreds, of other examples. The fact is that 90% of the House of Commons could be removed with no negative effect on anyone but those purged. The contrary, in fact.

Notes

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-question-time-clash-tory-13406586

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Thomson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kezia_Dugdale

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2002/12_december/19/newsnight_ids_cv.shtml

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Tomlinson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louise_Mensch

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Kendall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iain_Duncan_Smith

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_Abbott

Addendum 20 October 2018

…and look at this one, a near (?) mental case

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_O%27Mara

Update, 7 December 2018

More about the aforesaid little twerp (Ross Thomson MP)

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1624720/aberdeen-mp-ross-thomson-tricked-by-underhanded-yet-blindingly-obvious-tv-prank/

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3582471/ross-thomson-tory-mp-instantgrammes-drugs-channel-4/

see also

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/troop-cartload-barrel-or-family/

Update, 23 December 2020

Ross Thomson is no longer an MP. The reasons are elucidated here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Thomson#Sexual_misconduct_allegations

A Labour MP, Paul Sweeney (who lost his seat in the 2019 General Election) claimed in November 2019 (rather suspiciously, a full year after the alleged event) that in 2018 he had been sexually assaulted by Thomson in a bar within the Palace of Westminster.

Thomson denied the charge and was later cleared by the Commons Standards Committee, but in the meantime his local Conservative Party chairman refused to sign Thomson’s nomination papers. This meant that he could not stand as a Conservative candidate.

In the event, the short-notice Conservative Party candidate was beaten soundly by the SNP candidate at the 2019 General Election.

Thomson has since returned to what seems to be complete obscurity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54731242

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/former-labour-mp-lodges-appeal-23153724

Brexit, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

Reality and Semblance in the Upcoming UK General Election

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First of all, semblance. The msm have been attacking Labour and especially Corbyn-Labour ever since his election as Labour leader. Corbyn himself is said to be “a friend of terrorists” (from the IRA to HAMAS and Black September), a paid tool of Iran, as well as (not very crypto-) Communist and “anti-Semite”. In fact, the attacks on Corbyn have come, ultimately, from only one source, the UK Jewish-Zionist lobby.  You see it on Twitter. Pretty much all of the Zionist Jews on Twitter say the same things or raise a little storm at the same time. Like a shoal of fish.

The Jewish-Zionist lobby controls the anti-Corbyn MPs in Labour. Slowly, they are being removed or are resigning. John Woodcock has resigned from Labour (though not as MP! He wants to keep getting his pay and very inflated expenses for as long as possible!); Michael Dugher resigned as MP too (and was found a suitably-lucrative job outside politics…); Simon Danczuk (like Woodcock) was mired in sex scandal –apart from anything else– and tried to get re-elected as Independent, only to be humiliated; Luciana Berger tried to get a better-paid job as Mayor of Liverpool, but failed. Others are jumping ship or being shunted toward deselection.

So there we have the semblance: the manufactured storms in the msm about “anti-Semitism” and the other stormlets re. Corbyn as IRA collaborator in the 1970s or 1980s. These mean something to an older generation, perhaps, and of course the “anti-Semite” label means something to the approximately quarter of a million Jews in the UK (hardly any of whom vote Labour now anyway).

However, the anti-Corbyn propaganda is not reaching most people under 40 and, still less, those under 30. They are mostly not much interested by the fact that Jews and/or pro-Israel persons hate Corbyn; as for the “Corbyn was pro-IRA” stuff, even if there is some truth in it, that was mostly about 40 years ago, before they were even born. The under 40s are likely to vote on the basis of reality, meaning their reality.

What do I mean by “reality”? One person’s reality is another person’s “unimportant detail” or “cloud cuckoo land”. That is what most of the msm and the “Remain” whiners failed to understand about the pro-Brexit Leave vote in the EU Referendum: for an affluent family in London or the Home Counties, what mattered was (the perception) that the UK’s economy might be depressed by Brexit, that their daughter might be prevented from taking up that unpaid intern position at a Milan fashion house, that their son might not be able to get a lucrative job as a lawyer or accountant with a transnational enterprise in Brussels, Berlin or wherever; that their holiday home in Provence might lose value; that they might not get cheap Eastern European labour to help in the house or garden; that it might take longer to drive off the ferry during holidays etc.

On the other side, a man in the North of England was asked during the Referendum campaign whether he was worried that UK GDP might suffer if the UK exited the EU. His reply: “not really, it’s only me and the dog anyway…”! Easy to scoff, but that was his reality and arguably as “real” as the paper figures for economic performance are to the staff of the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme. What matters to the soldier in the battle? That the battle was won (or lost), or that he lost his life?

Reality for huge numbers of people (potential voters) in the UK means incredibly expensive and often now basically unaffordable housing (whether rented or bought), expensive and overcrowded transport and roads, an NHS which has declined perceptibly for many years, poor pay, fewer real civil rights, a largely-destroyed social security system, a continuing migration-invasion (though perception re. that is blunted because of the huge, pervasive race-mixing propaganda everywhere, eg in TV ads).

Now when those voters vote, most are going to vote on the basis of that reality, not on the basis that Jews (who are in any case not much liked or trusted, on the whole, by most British people) dislike Corbyn or his supporters, or because Corbyn’s connections with the IRA in the 1970s were very doubtful.

The above musings explain why I think that Labour’s vote is likely to be higher than most commentators in the msm expect. In their reality, what matters is whether Labour is “anti-Semitic”, or anti-EU, or anti the (supposedly) free market, or whether “the economy” might be damaged by Brexit or by a Labour government. Those commentators inevitably think as conditioned by their own circumstances and peer group. They make £100,000 or even (in some cases) £500,000+ a year, and certainly not less than £50,000, whereas the “average” (not median) salary in the UK is only around £28,000 and many many people (either employed or not) are actually surviving on as little as half of that.

The msm commentators own their own homes, often outright; they do not have to spend a third or even half their income on rent; au contraire! Many are actually buy to let parasites themselves! They do not have to live in shared houses, or on decaying council estates.

I am willing to accept that about 25% of the voters will vote Conservative at the next general election whatever the defaults of the governments since 2010, either out of self-interest or because of an ingrained dislike of Labour (or because they see a photo of Diane Abbott on Election Day!). That percentage might even be 35%. The other 65% to 75% is in the hazard. Everything depends, in the crazy UK First Past The Post electoral system, on what happens in the 50-150 more marginal constituencies. In our electoral system, a party needs a concentration of support, a Schwerpunkt. Thus it is that the Green Party, which has about 2% support, has an MP (in Brighton…) yet UKIP, which had a nearly 12% overall vote in 2015, has no MPs.

Though no psephologist, I should say that Labour has every chance of becoming the largest party in the House of Commons after the next general election, even if falling short of a majority. Because voters will vote on their reality, not on newspaper semblance.

Final thoughts

Thinking about blocs of support, Labour has, in broad brush terms, the under-40s, maybe even the under-50s; also the ethnic minorities (except Jews); also almost anyone earning the average salary or less. I cannot see the Conservative Party winning a Commons majority.

Update, 11 December 2020

Looking at the above article more than two years after it was written, my conclusion was wrong even though my reasoning was correct. Ironic.

I underestimated the suggestive power of the mass media and overestimated the common sense of the average voter.

Having said that, only a small number of 2017 Labour Party voters moved to be Conservative Party voters in 2019. The Conservatives increased their vote over that of 2017 by only about 1 point, but Labour’s vote declined by 8 points, and nearly half of that was 2017 Labour voters refusing to vote at all in 2019.

elections, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

Impressions of The System Parties in the UK in 2018

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The System in the UK is like a rotten wooden building, perhaps a termite-riddled one in the tropics. It stands until a storm or strong wind knocks it down. In the purely political sense, the building is the “three party system”, while the storm or strong wind (which has not yet hit) is a revolutionary situation, a radical movement, or a war.

Introduction and the LibDems

We have just had the three main-party conferences. I include the Liberal Democrats out of custom and long practice, though they have surely come to, or close to, the end of the line now. They still have 12 MPs (peak was 62, from 2005-2010, under the egregious Charles Kennedy, then 57 MPs under the ghastly hypocrite Nick Clegg from 2010-2015), but there is every reason to think that (as I predicted since 2011) the LibDems are really washed-up this time. Best advice is that the projected 2022 boundary changes would leave the LibDems with, on present voting, 4 MPs.

LibDems think back to the superficially-similar trough of the 1950s (sub nom Liberal Party) and imagine that another “revival” can occur. I doubt it. Politics has moved on from vague “centrism”.

I did not follow the recent party conferences closely. I saw news reports, Twitter reports etc. The major difference between the Labour and Conservative conferences was in terms of attendance and the median age of attendees. The Labour conference was well-attended and seemed to be more mixed in terms of age than the Conservative equivalent, where the average attendee was about ?80 years of age (young by comparison to most “Conservatives” in the constituencies, though, where the norm may be 85 or 90).

The Conservative Party

The Conservative Party is now a “virtual” party, where the facade is maintained via millions of pounds from “City of London” (often Jewish) donors, and which has few members: it still claims 100,000, but many suspect that the true number is maybe 40,000 or even 20,000, with active members even fewer, which is why,  a few years ago, the Jew Shapps [Grant Shapps MP] put together the ultimately disastrous Conservative Party “Road Trip” bus jamboree, organized by the degenerate and now (politically, certainly) washed-up Mark Clarke and his slut girlfriend India Brummitt (whose jaw was once dislocated during their, er, private play).

Clarke was banned for life from the Conservative Party and as a Conservative candidate for elected office; he was also, a couple of years later (in 2018) effectively sacked (he resigned, notionally) by his employer, Unilever, over an unrelated sexual scandal. India Brummitt was sacked from her job working for thick/ignorant Claire Perry MP [Con, Devizes], but is presently climbing the managerial-bureaucratic ladder in the NHS (see note, below; Clarke’s wife is a doctor in the NHS). As for the Jew Shapps, he resigned from his ministerial post. Another Jew, Robert Halfon MP, a one-time Director of Conservative Friends of Israel, and who (despite being a semi-cripple) had been conducting an affair with another Conservative slut-activist in the same clique, also had to resign as minister a little later.

The point is that those goings-on occurred because the once-solid Conservative Party, which in the 1950s had as many as 5 million members, had shrunk to a few tens of thousands of members, and most of those very aged, infirm, and incapacitated. The vacuum sucked in trash, from Halfon and Shapps to Clarke and India Brummitt (and others of the same ilk). There were other, unrelated scandals (does anyone now remember crass one-time MP Brooks Newmark, yet another “Conservative” Jew MP?).

The Brexit debacle has surely put paid to the (never based on reality) notion that the Conservatives are competent. I supported Brexit and still do, for social-national revolutionary reasons, but there is no doubt that the present government and its immediate predecessors have royally failed to perform with even basic adequacy in regard to Brexit or anything else. Meanwhile, large sections of the population have no decent standard of living, travel, roads, schools, hospitals, pay, housing; and the migration-invasion continues unabated.

Labour

Corbyn has saved the bacon of Labour, but only up to a point. He has increased the membership to over 500,000 and is not an outsider now for next Prime Minister, perhaps as leader of a minority administration, but there are masses of people who will never vote Corbyn-Labour or any Labour. Labour might become the largest party in the Commons, but its chance of gaining an overall majority is slight. The blacks and browns mostly vote Labour and their numbers are increasing fast. The British people have no-one for whom to vote.

The Labour Party under Corbyn promises much and may be unable to deliver. However, there is this: do the voters as a whole prefer a party which promises much and may be unable to deliver to a party which promises almost nothing? Do the voters prefer a Labour Party which may well prove itself to be incompetent to a Conservative Party which has surely proven itself so? “Those who live will see”…

Labour’s millstones round the neck are mostly racial-cultural: immigration (though, again, the Conservative Party has not made good on its promises); the ethnic minority deadheads and freeloaders on its shadow ministerial team (flagship: Diane Abbott…).

SNP

The SNP is pretty much a System party (pro-Zionist, kow-towing to the “holocaust” narrative etc) but will continue to pull in quasi-nationalist votes in Scotland, enough to create or maintain a bloc of MP seats.

The most likely scenario after the next general election is a hung Parliament.

As Hitler said of the Soviet Union in 1941, “all we have to do is kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come tumbling down!” He was very nearly right, too. We need a party or movement which can do the kicking, first.

Notes

” As of 2015, [Mark Clarke] was reported to be a senior marketing analyst at Unilever, but left the company in March 2018 after claims of sexual harassment were made against him. Clarke was the subject of a formal investigation by Unilever in respect of the sexual harassment matter, but resigned before that investigation was concluded.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Clarke_(politician)

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-activist-claims-woke-up-6887551

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3817531/Tatler-Tory-s-mistress-Commons-party-storm-Mark-Clarke-s-lover-sparked-outrage-turning-Gorge-Osborne-s-cocktail-bash.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/news/96912/curry-casual-sex-and-pole-dancing-inside-the-sordid-tatler-torys-activist-outings/

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/india-brummitt-64958967

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(UK)#Near_extinction

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Halfon

Addendum 14 October 2018

It should be noted that “the curse of Mark Clarke” left others in his cabal damaged too. This blog post was not intended to touch on the case of Clarke etc more than peripherally, but it might be noted that one of his closest cronies (and sometimes described as the most seriously “weird”), Sam Armstrong, was prosecuted for rape, the alleged offence having been committed after-hours and in the office of the MP who employed him at the time (in the end he was acquitted at trial, despite the evidence presented against him).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/samuel-armstrong-westminster-rape-allegation-cleared-conservative-party-aide-tories-craig-mackinlay-a8123401.html

It is incredible to me that the once-great Conservative Party should have fallen into the hands of such as these, though. It is possible that, had Armstrong not fallen into scandal, he might have been selected as a Conservative candidate to be an MP in time, despite his underwhelming academic background (grammar school followed by a mixed politics/history degree from Nottingham University) .

Likewise, had Mark Clarke not lost the election at Tooting in 2010 (various scandals about him having come out during the campaign), there is every chance that, as a semi-“ethnic” person and one who was partly brought up in a council house (and so notionally not “remote” from the masses), he might have been fast-tracked into government and by 2017 been at least a Minister of State! As it was, he was dropped from the list of Conservative candidates and described by David Cameron-Levita as “a nightmare”; yet he was still appointed to head Road Trip 4 years later! A Conservative Party slut “peeress” (former councillor) from Buckinghamshire seems to have been involved, but it is all very murky. The larger point is that the present UK political system is very flawed, leading to the selection of unsuitable and shallow candidates who then often become MPs and ministers. I shall blog about this separately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooting_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Newmark

Update, 13 August 2020

Well, nearly two years have elapsed since the last update to this article. The sinister little Con Party activist, Sam Armstrong, somehow managed to get a job as Communications Director at the “interventionist”, pro-Israel, pro-NWO lobby group, the Henry Jackson Society [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Jackson_Society]: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/staff/samuel-armstrong/

At time of writing, his latest tweet was this:

His lucky escape at the rape trial is of course not noted on his Henry Jackson profile.

As to the rest of my article, well…I  have seen nothing about Con “activist” Mark Clarke for years. He seems to have sunk without trace after Unilever sacked him. His girlfriend at time of the writing of my article, India Brummitt, is now “General Manager, Medical Specialties” at the NHS trust that runs Guy’s and St. Thomas’ Hospitals in London: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/india-brummitt-64958967

I have occasionally seen tweets or comments by another of Clarke’s little cabal, one Andre-something or other, a scribbler for some online news outlet.

On the wider picture, the vagaries of the British electoral system and the lack of enthusiasm for Labour resulted in a Con majority of 80 at the 2019 General Election. The result was that Boris Johnson, a part-Jew, part-Turk public entertainer, is now posing as Prime Minister.

Finally, it was recently announced that there will not now be any reduction in the number of Westminster constituencies, and so in the number of seats, from 650 to 600. There may be boundary changes in 2023, but so far there has been no legislation to that effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

 

Party Politics, Uncategorized

Which Way Politically After Brexit?

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It seems to be a virtual certainty that, during 2019, “Brexit” will –at least in name– take place. What that means is still uncertain. It has just been revealed that Theresa May and others have been secretly working to undermine the substance of Brexit and to make it appear as if Britain has left the EU while in reality tying it ever closer.

As soon as the EU Referendum was held, when the result favoured Leave, I assumed that the ZOG/NWO cabals would attempt to subvert it. The Referendum was planned as a public relations exercise, cleverly channelled so that “the people” would rubberstamp the UK’s continuing EU membership. David Cameron (aka David Cameron-Levita) miscalculated. As punishment, he was booted out under the figleaf of resignation, and is now an obscure fringe figure in British politics.

The Theresa May government has little legitimacy. Theresa May inherited her mantle as PM, and then lost credibility during and after the 2017 General Election. She now clings to power by juggling the House of Commons votes of her own rebellious MPs and those of the Democratic Unionist Party (which latter have been, in effect, bought).

Fate now takes a hand. As with Cameron-Levita, Theresa May has few of the attributes necessary to be a Prime Minister. She has made a mess of both the Brexit negotiations and her own plot to “leave” the EU while really staying in it. As a result, she has become something close to a laughing stock with the public.

It is possible that the UK will leave, or as Remainers always say, “crash out” of the EU on the basis of World Trade Organization [WTO] rules. It is possible, though unlikely, that the UK will “leave” the EU (but in effect stay) under the “Chequers” plan of Theresa May. It is possible, though very unlikely, that not even a nominal Brexit will happen.

I do not here want to examine the possible economic consequences in detail, but to look at the political future in the short to medium term.

There has already been a backlash from the public in the 9 days since the Chequers plan was announced. In the old phrase, you can fool some of the people some of the time but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Was that Mark Twain? According to my brief Internet query, no. Abraham Lincoln.

The opinion polls are already starting to move against Theresa May and the Conservatives vis a vis Labour. Labour has pulled a couple of points ahead for the first time in months. The revelation (which only burst upon the public prints yesterday) that Theresa May has been presiding over a secret plot to nullify Brexit will sink her and her party, in my opinion. So far, the Conservatives have been able to rely on the Corbyn Factor (which includes the Diane Abbott Factor etc) to put many voters off voting Labour. Now? Those people might or might not vote Labour, but many will not vote Conservative. They might abstain, they might vote Labour, they might even vote UKIP, which has experienced a rare poll boost in the past week or so.

UKIP is washed up, as I have been tweeting and blogging since 2014. However, it will still stand a small number of candidates in any general election held in 2018 or 2019 and those candidates will take the edge off the Conservative vote. The same is true of any candidate who is anti-EU.

The present weak Conservative government can surely only decline in popularity from here. As I have recently (and previously) blogged, the voters at present are mainly voting against parties rather than for them. A voter may abstain from voting Conservative or make a protest vote rather than voting Labour (or LibDem, bearing in mind that the LibDems are pro-EU).

The electoral mechanics in the UK are such that the result of any general election mirrors the “glorious uncertainty” of the racecourse. However, the present likelihood is that no party will have an overall majority, or that either Labour or Conservative will have a very small majority. That would be not dissimilar to the present situation, where in 2017 the Conservatives won 317 seats; however, a formal majority would require a party to win 326 seats but in fact (because Sinn Fein’s 7 MPs do not attend and so do not vote) 320 for a bare practical majority. Theresa May is 3 MPs short; hence the DUP arrangement.

My present feeling is that, while Labour will never be able to get a working majority in any election in the next couple of years, it could end up as (probably marginally) the largest party and so be able to form a weak minority government of some kind. This would be the best outcome for social nationalism, so long as a credible social national movement can emerge.

On the above premises, a half-cocked Brexit might lead to continuing mass immigration (including non-white immigration), economic slowdown, general malaise and administrative chaos. People will be dissatisfied, and disgusted by the System. On those premises, a real social national movement could gather strength enough to challenge the System by 2022.