I have blogged and (before the Jews had me expelled from Twitter in 2018) tweeted for years that the UK should become closer to Russia, and as part of that be supplied with cheap gas and oil for our people.
Absurd non-party ceases non-existent operations.
I have just read an interesting Jewish account of the above; needless to say, hostile, though no more than I have been since I became aware of the existence of For Britain.
Ironic that pro-Israel wastes of space such as Anne Marie Waters (and Prison Planet Watson, “Tommy Robinson”, Laurence Fox, Katie Hopkins etc) always try to curry favour with the Jews, but the Jews hate them just as much.
“For Britain’s most recent accounts reported an income of £150,000 in membership fees and donations. Only £1,400 of that was actually spent on campaigning, while £106,000 was spent on Waters’s salary, pension, travel and security, among other miscellaneous expenses. It had no full-time staff, relying instead on volunteers.” [“Scout News”].
So over 70% of For Britain’s entire income went on the leader’s various personal requirements?
That kind of thing plays into the hands of the Jew-Zionist element and its “antifa” “useful idiots”. Destructive of morale.
The removal of For Britain is actually a positive for social-nationalism. I hope that other fakes of that sort go the same way.
Really? Education Corps (as was), then transfer to (TA/Reserves) Intelligence Corps.
Interesting, though, that the New York Times is puffing Tugendhat, a part-Jew with many international connections.
A “warrior”, though? Ha ha! If you say so…
Britain should be joining with Russia in friendship, and for mutual benefit and development. Britain should not be threatening Russia, and certainly not supplying weapons to a shambolic, corrupt, dictatorial and basically Jewish regime in Kiev.
Britain is itself being badly-damaged by the present (supposedly) “pro-Ukrainian” policy. Everything more expensive for British people, and for what? To continue the war in Ukraine, to cause more death and destruction?
Both sides in what is now the war in Ukraine are running short of supplies, we read. Perhaps. The Russian forces can be resupplied overall, though there may be greater shortages in some specific geographical areas, but the Ukrainians (civilians and fighters) in the cities surrounded cannot be resupplied. Kiev itself is not completely surrounded, as yet.
Ammunition may be a bigger issue for the Ukrainian side than for the Russians. In any case, the weapons of most importance for the Ukrainian side are not small arms, but those donated free of charge by, mainly, the USA and UK— anti-tank and ground-to-air systems, able to be deployed by individuals or small groups. Without those weapons, Russia would by now be far more ahead in achieving its immediate tactical objectives.
Having said that, the civilians and soldiers in the besieged cities of the south and east cannot survive for long without food. Those cities will probably fall quite soon. When they do, huge Russian forces will move from the south and from the east towards Kiev.
I note that Zelensky is again calling for talks with Russia. He knows that he cannot win, as such, and so wants to stabilize the situation (eg by extended ceasefire, and open corridors) before cities now surrounded and under attack surrender or are destroyed.
Russia is going to win this war, in the short to medium term, even if most of its territorial gains are turned into scorched urban and rural wastelands. What happens further down the line is an open question.
This is not a war between very different nations and peoples. It is somewhere between that kind of war and a civil war. In the past, during the Russian Civil War (1917-1922), Ukraine was a battlefield between several contending forces: Bolsheviks, White Guards (pro-Tsarist anti-Bolsheviks), Ukrainian nationalists, and German forces, among others: see [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_People%27s_Republic].
A fairly dull Labour Party careerist, and System drone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Sheerman. Some of these idiots calling for war with Russia seem to forget that a. the UK now has only about 15,000 truly battle-ready soldiers now, b. the RAF’s capabilities (including transport) are now very limited, and c. even one Russian nuclear missile —and they have up to 6,200— landing on London would pretty much destroy the UK as a society, and economy, and state, and for about 50-100 years.
More tweets seen
Preliminary note: good to see that one of the worst Jew-Zionist and/or pro-Israel troll accounts on Twitter, “@GnasherJew”, has been suspended (again). Last time, the usual online “claque” of Jews put up a huge scream, much noisy protest (as usual— absolutely typical), and the account was reinstated. Let us hope that this time the ban will be permanent.
The activities of Jew-Zionists such as “GnasherJew” are the major reason why Twitter, and the comment-Internet generally, has gradually become rather dull; the more interesting Twitter accounts, including my own, and those of David Icke, Katie Hopkins, Alison Chabloz, Patriotic Alternative, and many many others, have been removed. It would be good to see at least some redress, even if not the nemesis that certain malicious Jew-Zionist trolls deserve.
Looks like you really cannot fool all of the people all of the time…
Looks like Indian “clever boy” Sunak’s stock is falling faster than the value of Ukrainian industrial shares…
If Parliament were at least entirely white and British by origin, without blacks, browns, Jews etc, or mixtures thereof, that alone would certainly not solve our national problems, but it would be a start.
Something similar is coming to the UK. Remember wise words from nearly a century ago:
While I am sorry for the civilians caught up in the Ukraine invasion, and also for their companion animals, the Kiev regime, headed by the decadent Jew clown Zelensky, is an integral part of the NWO/ZOG plan, which is why it must be toppled and crushed.
Why is he even in the UK?
Nearest city square. Firing squad. End (in an ideal world, that is…).
I disfavour the judicial death penalty, in fact, but the UK is getting to the point where something will eventually have to be done, not as judicial punishment, but as a public health or social health measure, mandated by the executive.
While I have no personal knowledge of whether the Russian claims are true or not, I did blog quite recently about my own visit to the Porton Down biological research station in Wiltshire, on which visit I was accompanied by the then Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, Mr. Komissarenko, himself a trained biochemical scientist. He was, more recently, director of exactly such a laboratory in Ukraine. Even Wikipedia notes that fact.
Soon, the Covid police state measures come up for renewal in Parliament. Suddenly, we have these scare stories appearing. “Join the dots”, as they say…
“Journalism” and/or similar occupations used to be, at least reasonably, literate. Look at the above tweets. Four sentences, yet three egregious errors: “Stamer” for “Starmer”, “train” for “trail”, and “deceit” for “deficit”.
Pay peanuts, get “university”-“educated” monkeys, I suppose.
As for the substance, it is clear that relatively few members of the public trust or respect either main System party, yet there exists no real alternative; no social-national party or movement has arisen. I discount ridiculous fringe figures such as Jayda Fransen, Anne-Marie Waters etc. In any case, a social-national leader must at least be a man, as a bare minimum.
Incidentally, she was never really a “refugee“, as claimed. Her father went from Yugoslavia (where he had been a “Czech” diplomat), to the UK in 1939. She was later, after WW2, sent by her father from, again, Belgrade to school in Switzerland; from there, she once more went to the UK, then (in 1948) to the USA. She did not suffer in any way from “Nazis”, or indeed Communists.
My feeling was that Labour would lose, and quite possibly come third. I was not correct. Labour won narrowly or, as they say on the racecourse, “by a neck, cleverly”.
Labour got a vote-share of 35.3%. The Conservative candidate got 34.4%. George Galloway, under the banner of the Workers’ Party, did better than many expected (21.9%); I got that right, at least.
All other candidates, 13 in number, lost their deposits: LibDems 3.3%; Yorkshire Party 2.2%; 10 of the other 11 received vote-shares below half of one percent each. UKIP, on 0.4%, just beat the Monster Raving Loony (0.3%).
The English Democrats, whose candidate, Therese Hirst, wrote to my blog comments page to request a mention on this blog, came 6th, with 0.55%.
The small and supposedly “nationalist” parties were, as expected, an embarrassment.
The For Britain party leader, Anne Marie Waters, got 0.3% (97 votes). Jayda Fransen did even worse, though (like Ms. Waters) on a par with her previous forays into doomed electioneering: 0.1% (50 votes). [nb. percentages approximate].
So where to start? Firstly, by noting that the Labour Party’s winning candidate, on 35.3%, not only did worse than any previous Labour candidate in the constituency but also worse than the winning Conservative Party candidate in the first election held for the seat, in 1983 (39.6%).
Leaving aside the rigged 2016 by-election, Labour has gone down steadily in the constituency since 2017: 55.5%, 42.7%, 35.3%.
This does not somehow “save Labour”. The present Government still has a Commons majority of 80, and could in theory be in place until December 2024. Labour still has very little likelihood of being able to form even a minority government after that time. If Scotland were to pull away from the UK, Labour would be in permanent and declining Opposition; even without that, Labour has no future as a party of government.
Other points: Labour and Kim Leadbeater ran a very dishonest campaign, even delivering contradictory leaflets to different streets (depending on the race/nationality of the inhabitants). She evaded the issue of the schoolteacher driven from his home and job by Islamist zealots, for example.
The new MP is already on BBC Radio 4 Today Programme yapping about “people living side by side“, diversity etc etc. Another puppet MP. Useless for the people who elected her.
As for Batley’s chances of getting central government assistance now, forget it. The locals must be a pretty stupid lot. They have elected a communitarian drone whose economic knowledge stops at spouting nonsense about “magic money trees”…
The Conservatives ran a lily-livered campaign, which seemed cunning but ultimately fell flat. The candidate deliberately shunned publicity (I thought, though I am judging from hundreds of miles away). The noise was all about Kim Leadbeater and George Galloway.
I thought that Galloway might get more than 20%, and I was right in that. 21.9%. He must be pleased with such a result.
As far as social nationalism is concerned, there was no social-national candidate, just absurd one-trick-pony candidates playing at politics. Anne Marie Waters and, even less credible, Jayda Fransen.
Labour continues to be the party of, mainly, the blacks and browns, publicly-paid employees and a few other groups. It is less than ever the party of (most of) the white English.
Other points? Well, the pathetic LibDem result was par for the course. Since the 2010 upsurge, the LibDems have lost their deposits in all Westminster elections contested by them at Batley and Spen.
Turnout, at 47.6%, was not especially low for a by-election.
About 73% of those who voted, voted for a System party. Over half of those eligible to vote abstained from voting. So about two-thirds of the entire eligible electorate either voted non-System, or decided not to vote at all.
Good luck to the residents of #BatleyAndSpen you’re going to need it. The sh!t hole you’ve all been complaining about will unfortunately remain one or become worse. Voting the #labourparty AGAIN!! is a disaster. 🤷🏼♀️
A tweet which shows not only how out of touch many Twitter-twits are (where has she been since 2010? Was she in outer space in 2019?), but how mutually-isolated are different socio-political “tribes” in the UK.
Good point. Until the seat is abolished, the Batley and Spen electorate will be represented at Parliament by a communitarian System drone with not an interesting or original thought in her head, dragging down £200,000 p.a. in pay and expenses, and accomplishing nothing, while the voters of Batley moulder in poverty and despair.
When Starmer, Nandy and Rayner signed the Articles of Surrender to the Murdoch/Tory/Zionists The media lies bombardment ended. They kissed the Chief Rabbi's ring. The Labour Palestine justice resistance fights on. 8,000 of them in Batley. https://t.co/ntOvgh0IRf
Political joke Paul Mason opines…in fact, he is right about the two “leaders” that he mentions in his tweet. Social nationalism in terms of electoral politics is scarcely even a bad joke; The two ladies together got only 147 votes at the Batley and Spen by-election, scarcely 0.3% of the total vote. One vote for about every 300 cast. Embarrassing.
Mason is not right about “terror networks” of what he would call, no doubt, “the far right”. They do not even exist, as far as I know anyway. Young men buying samurai swords, young women having swastika-shaped cookie-cutters, and people talking big in pubs, do not constitute a “terror threat”…
As for Mason’s “danger…online“, what he means is that people might be able to persuade other people to a certain viewpoint online. Mason hates free speech, so calls that a “danger”…
“John Smith” gives an accurate, if ungrammatical, riposte to sex pest communitarian grasper Brendan Cox, who thinks that it is worth trashing the UK if a few blacks become England-team footballers.
More tweets seen
The “panicdemic” is such an exercise in applied psychology that dictators, oppressive political regimes, and academic scribblers will probably be using its lessons for decades, and maybe for hundreds of years, rather like the 20thC Chinese techniques called (I believe) hsi nao, or “wash brain”, taken up by the West since the Korean War as “brainwashing”: see the 1963 book, Techniques of Persuasion, by J.A.C. Brown. I once had a copy, bought by me at my school book fair in, I think, 1971.
Such techniques were intriguing to film-makers, and have continued to be. Early examples would include The Manchurian Candidate and The Ipcress File.
Those films focussed on individual subjects, but there is of course “brainwashing” or, more accurately, “conditioning”, of whole masses of people, whether at schools (Eton might be a good example), or during Army training, to take two obvious situations.
Recent studies have concluded that, if people are exposed to fear propaganda for months, they lose the ability to resist it even if logical, rational and credible counter-messages are then delivered to them. Put simply, emotion trumps thought, usually.
Think back to the initial panic about “the virus”, in early Spring, 2020. TV news showing shuttered towns in Italy and elsewhere, the population only allowed to take walks alone or as couples, not interacting with others at all. Curfews. Harsh methods of enforcement (particularly in the part of China where the virus supposedly just appeared as if out of nowhere).
In the UK, we have seen how even the shambolic government regime presided over by Boris-idiot applied ever-stricter laws, “rules”, “guidance” etc (which the police enforced as if all had the force of law).
Police chiefs wanting to check people’s shopping to see whether the items had been “reasonable” purchases! That caused a kefuffle because the regime had tried to impose such repression too early, before the fear propaganda had fully taken hold.
Other examples included police vandalizing beauty spots in the Peak District lest people walk to them, other police (the hopeless police of Derbyshire were arguably the worst) using drones and loudhailers to bully elderly couples walking on the hills, miles from anywhere; in Wales, some farmer and his wife, hysterical (and again calling police) because two people from elsewhere were camping overnight on a nearby hill! “They might spread Covid!“, the pathetic idiots cried and whined (to the newspaper and TV reporters who were, unmolested, also there!).
Shops and other businesses were closed down for months, the employees’ anger largely forestalled or bought off by “furlough” payments. Result: the UK has spent £300 BILLION.
It is said “no matter, interest rates are almost zero”. In that case, why did the UK governments of the part-Jews David Cameron-Levita, Theresa May, and “Boris” Johnson apply so-called “austerity” for a decade, causing a huge amount of misery, in order to “save” far less than the sums now wasted for no good reason? Why was a huge investment in infrastructure not undertaken? Instead, vast amounts have been spent on paying the population to sit at home eating delivered pizza, watching TV, and drinking.
Then came the facemask nonsense. Large-scale trials which showed that facemasks (except the kind used in laboratories) were of minimal utility (and also caused other health problems) were ignored. The Government mandated facemasks (often little more than cloth muzzles or quasi-scarfs) in shops etc. Mandated them on pain of a heavy fine.
At first, up to mid-2020, both the UK Government and the World Health Organization [WHO] disparaged the use of facemasks, but later came under political pressure to change their advice, which is what happened.
The World Economic Forum [WEF] openly proclaimed how wonderful the “panicdemic” was as a driver to start a “Great Reset” of the world.
Well, now we are 18 months on, and the UK public, at least the majority, have shown themselves to be malleable pawns, without any regard for the freedoms won over centuries. One sees many wearing their facemasks even in their own cars, or while walking on windswept clifftops etc. Do they know that they have been brainwashed? Do they even care?
I think that it was the popular music group, Pink Floyd, in the early 1970s, maybe on Dark Side of the Moon, who had a track in which they sang that “…quiet desperation is the English way“. That might have to be changed, these days, to something like “spineless compliance, and apathy, is the English way”…
Meanwhile, we hear that 50,000 or 60,000 people have died in the UK “within 28 days of a positive test” (until recently, it was “from Covid”…), though (what a shock…) apparently no-one at all has died of flu for 18 months in the UK! Incidentally, if someone “tests positive” (often because the tests are flawed), even if having no symptoms, then weeks later dies in a car crash…yes, that’s right…that person “dies within 28 days of a positive test”!
The brainwashed nature of the population can be seen in the relative lack of anger or even questioning at the incongruity. Suddenly, instead of tens of thousands of deaths from influenza etc, there is substituted “deaths from Covid”, but most people are still, even now, obeying the so-called “laws”, “rules” etc. Even though their rational minds must know that this is a kind of scam on a vast scale.
Again, every day now we are seeing such as “today, 20,000 people tested positive”, followed by “and three people died within 28 days…(etc)”
In the UK, the msm has been totally compliant to the wishes of the State. In the msm and the “corridors of power”, only a few independent minds have stood up against the propaganda lies. Peter Hitchens [on Twitter as @clarkemicah] was one. Former Law Lord, Jonathan Sumption, was another. See https://twitter.com/SumptionUpdates.
About 1 out of 1,000 in the UK has died supposedly “of” or “with” or “within 28 days of a test”. Some people claim, speciously, 1 out of 500. Even so, this was never a nation-breaking pandemic. In the wider world, about 1 person has died out of every 4,000 people.
Inmates at the American concentration camp at Guantanamo were forced to wear facemasks nearly 20 years ago. To break them, not to save them from infection. Think about it.
We are facing an attempt, starting in 2022, to implement a new stage of the New World Order conspiracy. Various campaigns are part of that: Covid-19 “measures”, “Black Lives Matter” nonsense, fake “environmental” measures, “anti-racism” campaigns etc.
[This article will be updated as necessary, with updates posted at the foot of the main article]
The Batley and Spen by-election is set down for 1 July 2021. Nominations are open until the late afternoon of 7 June 2021, three days from time of writing, but the main parties and some others have already declared. It is likely that any further candidatures will either be crank or joke.
Batley and Spen was created in 1983. There have been several boundary changes over the years. One particular Conservative Party MP held the seat until 1997, succeeded by a Labour Party MP who held the seat until he retired in 2015.
Batley and Spen area voted about 60% for Brexit.
The constituency remained Labour, with Jo Cox as MP from 2015 to 2016 when she was assassinated. The subsequent by-election was rigged, in that the System parties agreed that Labour should put up a candidate unopposed by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties. Pathetic UKIP followed suit.
The percentage of the vote won by Tracy Brabin, the TV actress selected by Labour in 2016, declined steadily from that 86% high: 55.5% in 2017, and 42.7% in 2019. Now, in true Blairite fashion, Tracy Brabin has jumped ship in order to become Mayor of West Yorkshire, a newly-created and rather powerful role which also pays rather more than an MP’s salary— £105,000 plus expenses [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_West_Yorkshire].
It must be a possibility that Tracy Brabin could see support for Labour sliding, and weighed up the odds.
Parts of the constituency have high non-white populations (mainly Indians and Pakistanis), while others are still largely English. I have been unable to discover exact proportions for the constituency as a whole.
Labour is represented by Kim Leadbeater, the sister of assassinated MP Jo Cox. She was not even a member of the Labour Party until fairly recently, and the usual rule (that members of the Labour Party have to have been members for a year until they can be selected as candidates) was waived in her case.
Ms. Leadbeater is apparently a former lecturer in physical health, who also works as a personal trainer, but spends much of her time working for the Jo Cox Foundation.
When I had a Twitter account (a pack of Jews had me expelled in 2018), I tweeted rather extensively about the Jo Cox Foundation. My conclusions were unfavourable. I now notice that there were, in 2019 (when accounts were last published), six paid employees, and the salary cost of those six was around a quarter of a million pounds altogether.
The candidature of Ms. Leadbeater smacks of desperation on the part of Labour. They seem to be aiming, five years after the assassination of Jo Cox, for a sympathy vote.
Ms. Leadbeater, like most of the other candidates, is local or at least from a nearby area, which is perceived to be important.
The LibDems have chosen as candidate a LibDem councillor, Tom Gordon, whose council seat is in Knottingley, 20 miles east of Batley.
A relatively new entrant to politics is the Yorkshire Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_Party], which came third (behind Lab and Con) in the 2021 West Yorkshire Mayoral Election. Its vote share was 9.7%, though, only narrowly defeating the Green Party (9.2%); there were 7 candidates in toto.
Yorkshire Party has a number of councillors in Yorkshire.
Batley and Spen by-election: analysis and provisional prediction
This is probably going to be between the two main System parties, but there are complications.
In 2019, Labour won on 42.7% of the vote, with the Conservative Party second on 36%. The LibDems, on 4.7%, were beaten into fourth by a new entrant, Heavy Woollen District Independents [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Woollen_District_Independents], which scored 12.2%. The candidate for HWDI was not the leader, who is or was an ex-UKIP member called Lukic, who himself had scored 2% as Independent in the 2017 election at Batley and Spen.
It seems that HWDI is standing no candidate this time, but there is still time to declare, so that is not certain. I cannot say whether those who voted HWDI might now transfer their vote to Yorkshire Party. Perhaps.
I give little credence to the two minor British nationalist candidates, whose votes would probably have been tiny anyway, even had they not split whatever vote each might have had without close competition. Both are anti-Islam (or anti-Islamist), both are pro-Israel to some degree, neither has achieved much politically, though I commend anyone who keeps trying in the conditions of State repression, Jew-Zionist conspiracy and migration-invasion prevalent in the UK today.
I am not expecting either of those two ladies to score as high as 5% in Batley and Spen, or to get 5% even between the two of them. If either does retain her deposit, then she will have done well, indeed very well.
George Galloway? I hope that my bias against him does not prevent objectivity (he tweeted negative comments about me on Twitter, years ago, and also blocked my then Twitter account). He does not accept that old-style socialism died in and after 1989, and he is as outdated as the Battleship Potemkin.
I am unsure as to what level of support Galloway has among Muslims in Batley and Spen. Some, probably. All the same, if he scores 5%+ and retains his deposit, that would count as a major victory for him.
The LibDems likewise. They will be hoping, at best, for retention of their deposit, but I would expect them to end up with less than 5%.
Yorkshire Party? Perhaps the joker in this pack. I have no way of assessing their chances, except by reference to that mayoral election recently. 9.7% was a good result for a relatively new party (founded 2014 as “Yorkshire First”). They are very unlikely to win this by-election; the question is, if they do get a high-ish vote (over 5%), which of the two main System parties will be most damaged?
The Labour candidate is a mark of Labour desperation. Someone only there because her sister was assassinated (and later canonized, or at least beatified, by the System and msm).
The constituency having a fairly high non-white population (no exact figures found, but around a third), Labour’s expectations must be to win between a third and a half of the vote as a whole. Labour is now largely a black/brown party in terms of its voters; public service workers account for much of the remainder.
If the white population of Batley and Spen has turned away from Labour, even if not voting Conservative, then Labour has a problem.
My present feeling is that the Conservative Party candidate might win this. Labour is just not what most people want at present. The recent YouGov poll suggesting that about 37% to 23% think that Boris-idiot would make a better PM than Keir Starmer is stunning, even though I myself despise “Boris”. Likewise, latest polling on “Westminster voting intention” puts the Cons around 40% and Labour around 30%.
Ironically, the fact that the Labour candidate at Batley and Spen has not been a member of the Labour Party for very long might actually help her with the voters! On the other hand, voters may feel that, if Labour nationally is sliding, and unlikely to form a government any time soon (if ever), then they may as well vote in as MP someone who might be listened to by Government, and thus help the area more. Just a thought.
Much will depend on turnout; also on whether either or both of Galloway and the Yorkshire Party do well, and on whose votes those two take. Galloway will be aiming largely at the Muslim vote; as to Yorkshire Party, hard to say, but maybe they aim to capture white formerly Labour voters. If that is so, then Labour is again in trouble.
The Labour Party vote in Batley and Spen has been eroding steadily since the rigged 2016 by-election. Tracy Brabin jumped ship because she feared defeat at the next general election.
My feeling at the moment is that the Conservative Party might win this, but that it could either be very close, or it could be a total rout for Labour. My head says the former, but my heart is screaming for the latter.
Update, 6 June 2021
“John Rentoul@JohnRentoulPaul Halloran, the 3rd placed candidate in Batley & Spen in 2019, standing aside in by-election – boost for the Tories“
It seems that the said Halloran has now joined the no-chance Reclaim Party set up by the actor Laurence Fox, who now stands for free speech (except, it seems, where Jews disapprove or are mentioned). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurence_Fox.
It is clear that Reclaim Party will never amount to anything. As far as the Batley and Spen by-election in July is concerned, the stand-aside will obviously help the Conservative candidate, but what is unknown is by how many votes. Halloran received 12.2% of the vote in 2019, true, but Fox, in the recent London Mayoral Election, only 1.9%. I suppose that it might be surmised that Halloran, had he stood, might have garnered 5% of the by-election vote, possibly 10%, and maybe even 15%+, but the fact is that that is pure speculation. We do not know.
What we do know is that the above news is probably a blow for Labour. A few percent might decide this contest.
Update, 7 June 2021
The tweet below gives an idea of the local government situation within the Batley and Spen constituency area:
Some of those candidatures (UKIP, English Democrats, Heritage) will affect the contest between the two major contenders, taking away a few percent from the Conservatives, and the Green non-candidature will probably increase the Labour vote by a similar amount.
That Owen Jones YouTube piece is quite interesting; worth watching.
Looks as though both the white English voters and the brown Muslim voters are abandoning Labour. That may mean that Labour is up that well-known creek without a paddle…
I thought that Galloway might get 5%, then I thought 10%. Now I am wondering if he might not get 20%, or even more, and (as he says he might) beat Labour into third place. If that were to happen, Labour might get a vote around 20% or even below that…
Update, 22 June 2021
“The final fortnight of the Batley and Spen by-election has turned ugly up in West Yorkshire. Yesterday, the Mail on Sunday columnist Dan Hodges quoted an anonymous Labour official claiming that ‘We’re haemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters and the reason for that is what Keir has been doing on antisemitism… he challenged Corbyn on it and there’s been a backlash among certain sections of the community.’
Predictably such an incendiary quote sparked fury among Labour MPs with the hunt now on for the possible culprit. But as tensions rise in the seat and polls show a narrow six point lead, one familiar face seems all too happy to cause as much controversy as possible. Step forward George Galloway, the man who is incidentally polling at six per cent in this seat and who was sacked from TalkRadio in 2019 after claiming Tottenham Hotspur’s Champions League defeat meant there would be ‘no Israel flags on the cup.‘” [The Spectator] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/galloway-gets-the-gang-back-together-in-batley-and-spen.
The fact is that Labour has been retaken by the Jewish lobby. Corbyn, its recent leader, is suspended and may be expelled. Keir Starmer is a Jewish lobby puppet, married to a Jewish woman lawyer, and they have children being brought up as if fully-Jewish.
Starmer has actually said, outright, that he is “a proud Zionist” who puts Israel first!
Labour has gradually, over a couple of decades, become the party of the blacks and browns, some public service workers, and a few other and smaller groups such as some of the “woke” Twitterati twits etc.
White (i.e. English) people generally have already abandoned Labour to a large extent. If, at Batley and Spen, the brown Muslim people are abandoning Labour, then Labour has no solid bloc supporting it. On the premises just shown, that would leave Labour with only a small minority vote.
It may be that that process of abandonment has not yet gone far enough to collapse Labour’s vote entirely, and it might even happen that Labour can pull the rabbit out of the hat and win, but that does look very unlikely.
What percentage vote-share will Labour get at Batley and Spen? It could be anywhere from 40% right down to 20%. When I first started this blog post, I was thinking that Labour would probably lose, but come a close second, with maybe as much as 40% or more of the vote. Now? Not sure. Again, my head is more cautious, thinking maybe 40%, but my instinct is again screaming out that Labour is going to go down to below 30%.
I thought, a month ago, that Galloway would do well to get 5% of the vote, but having seen some reports, it seems that the Muslims in the constituency are equating a vote for Labour with a vote for Israel. Galloway and his “Workers’ Party” may well end up with 10% or more of the vote. Goodbye Labour, if so.
While the Mark Wallace analysis is (if I say so myself) far less interesting than what I myself have blogged, his article being scarcely riveting, it was not complete rubbish, whereas that New Statesman article is simply substandard. It ties in Conservative Party support to what is happening with the “dreaded” (though actually overblown) “virus”, to the exclusion of all else. Very poor.
Labour is failing because it no longer has an identity, no longer has a purpose, nor any vision of a decent future, especially for white English people. The Conservative Party is “succeeding” at present because it is not Labour. Simple as that, in a more or less rigged, and more or less binary, electoral and political system.
I suppose that the only answer Kim Leadbeater can give is “White English people have pretty much binned Labour; if the blacks and browns abandon Labour, Labour has nothing left…”
Why does it take people who are not themselves British in any real sense to stand up for the values of this country? Where are the English people? Where is puppet-candidate Kim Leadbeater? Where is Labour? Where, indeed, is the misnamed “Conservative” Party?
Strange people, more frightened of Jayda Fransen and her few followers than by a migration invasion by millions of non-Europeans…
Women's sports are now for men who can't compete against other men
I should say that one big difference between the situation at Batley and Spen, as compared to that at Chesham and Amersham is that, at Chesham and Amersham, Labour voters who did not abstain voted LibDem tactically. I very much doubt, though, that many LibDem voters at Batley and Spen will vote Labour tactically, though some may.
Another difference: at Chesham and Amersham, the 2019 Labour vote was 12.9% of votes cast (20.6% in 2017); at Batley and Spen, the LibDem vote in 2019 was only 4.7% (2.3% in 2017).
In other words, tactical voting is of less importance in this particular by-election.
That BBC report gives the Muslim population, as a proportion of the electorate of Batley and Spen, as being around 20%. If most of them abandon Labour, that would halve, more or less, the 2019 Labour vote. Almost halve it, anyway.
If most whites (English) and most browns (Muslims etc) abandon Labour, then what does Labour have left in a place like Batley? 10% of the vote? 20%?
We shall soon see.
Meanwhile, the Jewish/Zionist lobby is desperate to save Keir Starmer, its puppet Labour Party leader, from humiliating defeat (despite the fact that most Jews vote Conservative):
George Galloway seems to be growing in popularity in Batley and Spen:
That piece made me laugh. Galloway really put the silly Channel 4 bimbo in her place. For Channel 4, the main talking point in Batley and Spen is that Galloway’s supporters are allegedly attacking the Labour candidate, Kim Leadbeater, because she is a lesbian.
It really is time for Channel 4 to have its rice bowl taken away.
The report did cover the Conservative and LibDem candidates as well. The Con man was, well, just that, in my opinion. A cautious woodentopped product of a Conservative Party public relations machine. No obvious original thought in his head. As for the LibDem, a pathetic damp squib limp-wrist, to be frank.
The more I see on TV etc about the by-election up there, the more I think it likely that Labour is going to get thrashed, which would mean that the Conservative Party will win, though not on merit.
Batley and Spen Labour Party by-election candidate Kim Leadbeater runs away from Muslims and others who do not want their young children taught about lesbianism etc. She is said to be a lesbian herself, and the “teaching LGBT-etc in schools” thing may damage her campaign with some voters, particularly Muslims.
Update, 26 June 2021
Update, 27 June 2021
The above statement was apparently made a year or two ago, and was posted on Twitter by a dissident Labour Party member in August 2020. I have been so far unable to find out in what year Starmer made that statement (assuming that he did) but he has anyway made plain many times that he fully supports the Jewish lobby and Israel. If he did not support it/them, then he would not have been “put in” as leader! I imagine that his Jewish wife would also have a few words to say to him!
Hardly surprising that many in Batley and Spen are not interested in helping Starmer by voting for Labour and Kim Leadbeater. Not only Muslim voters. Many others are very angry at the Jew-Zionist cabals that infest UK politics.
Exactly. The former Batley and Spen MP was a brainless ex-soap “star” (of whom I had never heard). Now Labour has selected another person with no real political profile.
The organized Israel/Jew lobby naturally want Zionist-controlled Labour and Kim Leadbeater to win. Voters of Batley and Spen take note…
Update, 28 June 2021
Kim Leadbeater, the Labour candidate, is plainly as thick as two short planks, and has quite obviously been drilled to deliver pathetic soundbites such as “there is no magic money tree“. She is one personification of why Labour is going nowhere but down.
If in 2019, Tracy Brabin and Labour only got 42.7%, almost half of that that would have been the Muslim vote. If, in this by-election, most of that Muslim vote disappears to Galloway (or to abstention), that would seem to reduce Labour to a vote-share around 30%. If half of the English former (2019) Labour voters also abstain or vote elsewhere, the Labour vote might reduce to around 20%, or less. That might knock Labour into third place.
Having said that, there is still all to play for at Batley and Spen. The Labour candidate still has as ammunition her local roots, the tradition of Labour voting locally, and the sympathy vote around the assassination of her sister (former MP Jo Cox) by a socio-political dissident. I have to say that I myself am sceptical that that sympathy vote even exists, but there it is.
Incidentally, there has been much msm and Twitter noise around the egg attack on Labour leafletters. Has it not occurred to anyone that that may have been locals expressing their opinion of the last thick-as-two-short-planks MP, Tracy Brabin, who was, it seems, one of those attacked?
Well, polling day is tomorrow. I shall post the result(s) here as well as on my daily blog.
It may be that Labour can still pull the rabbit out of the hat, but to my mind the campaign has sunk Labour, because it has exposed their candidate, Ms. Leadbeater, as a near-idiot who only joined Labour weeks ago, and is very obviously being used as a puppet to get a sympathy vote based on the 2016 Jo Cox assassination. A sympathy vote which I do not believe exists anyway in any strength.
The rigged 2016 by-election was won by Labour with a 85% vote-share only because Conservatives, LibDems and UKIP did not contest the seat, and on a miserable 25% turnout. It might even be argued that, in 2016, 80% or more of the eligible voters at Batley and Spen did not have sympathy…
My guess? 1. Conservative Party; 2. George Galloway (Workers’ Party); 3. Kim Leadbeater (Labour); 4. Yorkshire Party.
My feeling was that Labour would lose, and quite possibly come third. I was not correct. Labour won narrowly or, as they say on the racecourse, “by a neck, cleverly”.
Labour got a vote-share of 35.3%. The Conservative candidate got 34.4%. George Galloway, under the banner of the Workers’ Party, did better than many expected (21.9%); I at least got that right.
All other candidates, 13 in number, lost their deposits; LibDems 3.3%; Yorkshire Party 2.2%. The other 11 received vote-shares below half of one percent each. UKIP, on 0.4%, just beat the Monster Raving Loony (0.3%).
The small and supposedly “nationalist” parties were, as expected, an embarrassment. The English Democrats, whose candidate (Therese Hirst) actually wrote to my blog comments page to request a mention, seem to have withdrawn their candidature.
The For Britain party leader, Anne Marie Waters, got 0.3% (97 votes). Jayda Fransen did even worse, though on a par with her previous forays into doomed electioneering: 0.1% (50 votes). [nb. percentages approximate].
I shall discuss the result further on my blog post for 1 July 2021.
In the public mind, the Zeppelin (used as the generic term for lighter-than-air craft) has passed into history. Its heyday is generally thought of as being the First World War, when the airships were used by the Germans in early “terror” raids over English cities. Not only London: my own grandmother (b.1900), who for some reason now unknown had been sent from Berkshire to a boarding school at Ashby-de-la-Zouch, Leicestershire, actually saw a Zeppelin over her school, probably in 1916.
[a Zeppelin over the Palace of Westminster, London, during the First World War]
Incidentally, the safety problems associated, in the public mind, with airships, were never great, in reality:
Hitchens is correct not only in his main point but also in his view of that Dunt person, who seems (from what I have seen) to have an unerring instinct for coming to the wrong socio-political conclusions.
The Jewish terrorist behind the “Black Lives Matter” nonsense
In fact, I do not agree with Hitchens re. Starmer being “deeply revolutionary”. He may well have read and even edited obscure Trotskyist publications when aged 20. Hitchens himself was a Trotskyist at that age, while I, at age 19 and living in a London attic, read, and regularly, everything from the anarchist newspaper Black Flag to the social nationalist magazine, League Review, and many another publication.
You cannot take someone’s views as they were at age 20 as being their settled viewpoints when they are 50, 60, or 70 years old. Keir Starmer may have more radical ideas than Boris Johnson, but for me the difference is that Starmer may actually have a few ideas, however limited, whereas part-Jew chancer, fraud and (ex?) public entertainer “Boris” has no ideas at all, beyond the schoolboy fantasies of bridges over rivers and oceans, artificial islands, tunnels to Ireland etc; the sort of ideas I had when aged about 13.
I wonder why…
Incidentally, that Silverman individual (“Head of Investigations and Enforcement” at the Jew-Zionist Israel-lobby “Campaign Against Antisemitism” or “CAA”), was exposed in open court a few years ago as having been behind a number of pseudonymous Twitter and other trolling accounts. Most of the victims were women. He was also behind a malicious complaint made about me to Essex police (he lives in South Essex) in early 2017: see https://ianrobertmillard.org/2017/07/13/when-i-was-a-victim-of-a-malicious-zionist-complaint/.
Their primary, and perhaps only, loyalty is to Israel (whether to the Israeli state as such, or to the Jewish people). At least, that is how it seems to me…”@mlewislawyer” is in fact now resident in Israel.
The monarchy in Britain, like so much else (the System political parties, the Bar, the Church —indeed, churches— etc) is now running on empty.
If you listen to the ahistorical nonsense that, eg, BBC World Service has been retailing about the above, the blacks in America have been prevented from being more affluent and/or powerful because of that one incident in one minor city 100 years ago. Oh, of course…
SPLC— a pack of Jews and/or “antifa” apologists.
Anne-Marie Waters and Tommy Robinson. Both pro-Israel, anti-Islam one-trick-ponies. Not real nationalists. Well, they are operating in tandem, it seems. Maybe they should get a rabbi to bless their unlikely (?) union…
I may not be the typical man-in-the-street voter, but I really cannot see any candidate so far declared at Batley and Spen for whom I would vote. Not one.
I should really blog in detail about the upcoming by-election, set down for 1 July 2021. Maybe this weekend I shall post something.
Illusion is something that many prefer to reality, as this cartoon indicates:
“They want not only their daily bread but also their daily illusion.” [Adolf Hitler, talking about many Germans during the decadent Weimar Republic of 1918-1933]
The Green Party
This blog article was prompted by a tweet that I happened to see, tweeted by one Jonathan Bartley, the “co-leader” of the Green Party.
David Davis is wrong on @BBCr4today that all parties are in a worse state than they have been for years. @TheGreenParty membership is growing, we are polling higher than our best ever general election result and have a record number of councillors on a record number of councils.
The Green Party is so large and important now that it has to have not one but two “co-leaders”. Well, jesting aside, there must be some other reason (almost certainly something very very silly) that necessitates two leaders, the other “co-leader” being one Sian Berry.
Bartley seems to have come from an affluent background. He graduated from the LSE aged 23, thereafter floating around Westminster as researcher etc until he founded the think-tank, Ekklesia. He does not seem to have done (or have needed to do) any other work of much substance between the founding of Ekklesia in 2002 and being elected as Green Party co-leader in 2016.
Deputy Leader is 34-year-old Amelia Womack, who was elected to her party position aged 29, having never been elected to any public position (not even as local councillor); neither has she ever had a paid job of any kind, it seems. She is a candidate in the upcoming Newport West by-election:
Now the facts are (i.e. the reality is) that the Green Party of England and Wales, founded 1990, has 1 MP (out of 650), 1 member of the House of Lords (out of 781), 3 MEPs (out of 64 English/Welsh seats), 2 London Assembly members (out of 25), and 178 local councillors (out of 19,023).
The Green Party is polling at somewhere around 5% nationally (it has been as low as 2% in recent years), and only has its one MP by reason of the unusual demographics and the (in 2010, when Caroline Lucas was first elected) 4-way voting split in the constituency of Brighton Pavilion:
In other words, the Green Party is like a tame rat on a wheel. Lots of activity and noise, but nothing really achieved. It’s not that I am opposed to all Green Party policies. I like some of its environmental policies, its support for Basic Income, its concern for animal welfare etc. There has, after all, always been connection between what are now called “green” ideals and social-nationalism. I have even blogged about it:
Where I cannot accompany the Green Party is in its apparent belief that open borders are good, mass immigration of inferior peoples into Europe is good, or that the EU is mostly very good for the UK.
I agree with the Greens when they say that FPTP voting is unfair on them (as on, in the past, UKIP, the BNP and the National Front, among others). Even 5% of votes should give the Greens around 30 MPs, whereas they may soon struggle to retain their one (though Caroline Lucas is a known TV face and probably will stay for a while). However, to say that UK political life is unfair is really just a pathetic bleat even if true (which it is).
At some point, reality will have to dawn on the Green Party members (surprisingly, nearly 40,000 of them). Or maybe not. I think that many Green Party members probably like their nursery politics game, which they must know in their hearts can never lead to serious results; but it makes them feel good and virtuous.
The Green Party is not about to get MPs elected or sweep the country in any way. The Green Party will simply continue as it is, a virtue-signalling pressure group pretending to be a political party. However, relatively few British people will vote for a party that supports both mass immigration and UK membership of the EU; neither will voters give credence to a party which has no one clear leader and which seems to be a refuge (even in its top-most ranks) for perpetual students and/or virtue-signalling and hugely self-deluded persons.
The Nationalist Milieu
It is often said that the plethora of food programmes on TV are a kind of “food porn” for people who rarely if ever cook. Well, the so-called “far right” (I myself never use terms such as “Left”, “Right” etc) or nationalist political tendency is rather like that: the Zionists, their “useful idiot” “antifa” offshoots, the msm too, and of course the System apparatchiki such as police, all like to say that there is a huge “danger” from “far right extremism” etc. If only! In reality, what exists at present is a mixture of hobby politics, “I’m the leader!” (of 2.5 people) parties, and politically-tinged 1970s football hooligan groups, together with System politics under nationalist camouflage (as with UKIP).
People of my vintage (b.1956), will recall (the now notorious) Gary Glitter singing “I’m the leader!” in 1973, a psychology characteristic of both “I’m the Leader!” parties and, usually, “hobby parties” (though every successful political party has to have a credible leader).
The English Democrats
I am starting with the English Democrats because they seem to me to epitomize the “hobby politics” sort of party. They claim(ed) to have over 2,000 members (2015), though I daresay that even that was a gross overestimation. I personally only ever heard of one member by name (my mother-in-law’s former neighbour), and he was a very strange man, a retired pilot aged about 70 (c.80, now). I would not be surprised if that man were fairly typical of the English Democrats’ members.
The English Democrats were founded in 2002. Their best electoral result was in the Mayoral race at Doncaster in 2009, which they won. They would also have won in 2013, had the Mayor not resigned from the English Democrats not long before the election. He still stood but as Independent and lost to Labour by only 590 votes, the EDs having put up their own candidate, who received 4,615 votes.
Police and Crime Commissioner elections have been their second best (highest vote-share just over 15%). In local elections, they have reached over 10% here and there, with their leader, Robin Tilbrook, receiving 18.2% of the vote in an election for the Epping Forest District Council. In Westminster elections, all results have been below —far below— 1% (in 2017, about a tenth of 1% in each of the seven seats contested).
The English Democrats have few policies, and those so bland that they could be espoused by several other parties, including System ones. Even the “English Parliament” idea has been mooted by System MPs occasionally.
“[Robin Tilbrook’s] party agitates for anyone living in England. His notion of Englishness is akin to American notions of “Americanness” – that you can be from any ethnic background and still wrap yourself in the flag.” [from an American newspaper interview]. So someone straight off the boat from God knows where is “English”, so long as living in England, according to that idiot! Even his professed “Euroscepticism” is very muted (and is based on the disproportionate amount of EU funding going to non-English parts of the UK).
The English Democrats are the “hobby politics” party par excellence. Mr. Tilbrook will never be blacklisted by the msm, nor targeted seriously by “antifa” or the Jewish lobby. He will never be interrogated by the police. He has in fact been invited onto TV occasionally and given a polite hearing, e.g. on BBC Daily Politics. He is even a Freeman of the City of London (awarded 2011)! Members of the EDs can write letters to the Daily Telegraph and talk at the bar of their golf clubs without let or hindrance. A waste of time worthy of P.G. Wodehouse.
For Britain Movement
I have blogged about “For Britain” previously. This party, though partly on the right track in terms of policy, is basically a one-trick pony. “You can have any colour so long as it is black!” [Henry Ford, re. the Model T car]; with “For Britain”, you can have any policy so long as it is anti-Islamism. Not that I oppose that view, but it is not enough.
For Britain is not exactly a “hobby politics” party, but it is really just a one-man or one-woman band, closely aligned with the policy-free beer-bottle throwers of the English Defence League and their one-time leader, the person usually known as Tommy Robinson.
The leader of For Britain, Irish lesbian former secretary Anne-Marie Waters (“Maria” originally), certainly has some followers, and For Britain has some members, as witness the local election campaign poster linked below, but how many is unclear. Probably fewer than 100. Quite possibly only about 50.
“The party fielded fifteen candidates in the 2018 local elections, none being elected. The party came last in almost all the seats it contested. In June 2018, the party expelled one of its local election candidates after Hope Not Hate linked him to the proscribed neo-Nazi group National Action and the white nationalist group Generation Identity“
So “For Britain” (which says, pathetically, to the Jew-Zionist lobby, “look, we’re pro-Israel!” in the forlorn hope that the Jews will not hate it), sacked someone at least active enough to get up from his chair and stand as a candidate, simply because the unpleasant “Hope Not Hate” crowd fingered him!
As for Anne-Marie Waters, she herself stood in the Lewisham East by-election of 2018, receiving 266 votes (1.2% of votes cast; 7th place, behind Labour, LibDem, Con, Green, Women’s Equality and UKIP, but just ahead of Christian People, Monster Raving Loony, and 5 other minor candidates). “For Britain” is no good even as a protest vote in a by-election!
Sometimes, I wonder whether this or that group, party or movement or “leader” is not a put-up-job by the enemy, but in reality the likelihood is that these people are just deluded, indulging in near-pointless political activity. Having said that, it suits “Hope Not Hate” and the other manipulators of “antifa” idiots to have something to point at and say, “Look! Nazis/neo-Nazis/Fascists!” (etc).
Who, who would join something as one-dimensional, as limited, as “For Britain”? God knows. Not many have joined, anyway.
Well, here we are at last out of the “hobby politics” and “I’m the Leader” areas, though plenty of UKIP members are hobby politicos. UKIP, though, is the real thing: a functioning political party, conservative-nationalist, and which at one time had two or three MPs (albeit temporary cast-offs), still has 7 MEPs (out of a possible 73), as well as 1 member of the House of Lords, 3 Welsh Assembly members (out of a possible 60) and 101 local councillors (out of a possible 20,712).
UKIP might have broken through to a measure of power in 2015 but did not, and now never will. It peaked in 2014. A succession of poor leaders (the present one is slightly better than those that followed Farage) crippled already-failing UKIP, whose membership, at one time reaching 50,000, is now somewhere below 23,000. UKIP has always been semi-tolerated by the System (inc. the Jew-Zionist lobby) and has now gone over to a basically one-trick-pony policy position which is not far from the offerings of Tommy Robinson, Anne-Marie Waters and the whole effectively pro-Jew and pro-Israel “alt-Right”/”alt-Lite” crowd (the British ones of prominence have in fact recently joined UKIP: “Prison Planet” Watson, “Count Dankula” Meechan, “Sargon of Akkad” Benjamin. All wastes of space).
To join or support UKIP now, except perhaps as a way of protesting pointlessly in an election, is just silly. It could not get one MP in 27 years (leaving aside the Conservative few who defected briefly), not even in 2015 when it was voted for by 1 out of every 8 voters! The voting system is rigged and flawed, and that suits the System parties very well.
UKIP’s vote in 2015 (nearly 4 million votes) fell to less than a seventh of that in 2017.
UKIP too is in the realm of political unreality, at least as far as elections are concerned.
How to go toward a realistic political viewpoint
The short to medium term future is uncertain and likely to bring revolutionary change to the world. I recently blogged about this:
As far as UK politics is concerned, it is clear that the major urban areas are no-go zones for nationalist parties, at least in respect of getting MPs elected. They can only be viewed as recruitment pools at present.
To pretend that a movement or party can be founded, then play the game of System politics, is otiose. UKIP tried that —and was semi-System anyway— yet failed utterly in any attempt to gain power (though I concede that UKIP did obliquely achieve the holding of and result of the 2016 EU Referendum, which result however is now being cynically betrayed by cosmopolitan conspirators such as the Jew Letwin and the virtue-signalling hypocrite Yvette Cooper… even as I write).
The fast-breeding ethnic minorities, including mixed-race elements, are collectively only a few decades away from becoming the majority in the UK. In some cities and towns, they are already the majority. That fact alone makes ordinary democratic politics a no-win situation for social-nationalism.
A social-national movement must be built from the ground up, and on a basis of reality, even if that reality looks, at present, like the sheerest fantasy.
This was just a by-election protest vote and a pretty muted one.
The Greens came 6th, with 924 votes (3.9%).
As for “For Britain Movement”, its candidate came last out of the 11 candidates, getting 159 votes (0.7%). This party is wasting the time of its few members.
Update, 9 April 2019
Judicial Review cases are never dealt with in days. We will hear next week what the government has to say in Reply but only then will the High Court list the first hearing. We are applying for the hearing to be "Expedited". We have a strong case that the UK is Out of the EU!
Update, 12 April 2019; a few thoughts about the near-future EU and local elections
The Brexit mess, so spectacularly mishandled by Theresa May and the idiotic careerists around her, may save UKIP from immediate collapse as a party, inasmuch as many British voters will want to punish the Conservative Party one way or the other. There may be a “perfect storm” for the Conservative Party, pressured on two fronts by both the Leave and Remain sides.
There will soon be elections for the European Parliament, on 23 May 2019. Recent opinion polling seems to be saying that Labour will have a landslide: initial voting intentions show Labour on 37.8% (up from 24.4% in 2016); Conservatives at 23.1% (unchanged), Brexit Party (Nigel Farage’s new party) 10%, LibDem 8%, UKIP 7.5%, Change UK (the recent Lab/Con defector MPs’ vehicle) around 4%, among others.
One has to be cautious in assuming that the above opinion poll reflects the likely outcome. The same poll seems to indicate that, after discussion, many pro-EU voters prefer Change UK (which would hit Labour and LibDem levels), while anti-EU voters may prefer either UKIP or Brexit Party.
Before the EU elections (in which the UK may not participate at all if the UK leaves the UK before 23 May), there will be local elections, on 2 May 2019. The indications are that, in those elections, Labour may also sweep the poll, with Labour benefiting not only from the “pendulum” or “see-saw” effect of elections in a system using FPTP voting, but also from abstentions by usual Con voters (or by their voting for Brexit Party or UKIP).
As far as the local elections are concerned, Labour starts the campaign with several advantages. The decade of spending cuts has finally impacted even the most true-blue Conservative areas. Labour has a army of local activists, thanks to its membership surge under Corbyn. It also has funds from the same source.
The Conservatives have few local activists now and most are beyond retirement age. The party looks tired. The Brexit mess can only be laid at the door of Theresa May and her Cabinet. The Cons will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in the areas voting on 2 May.
There are also strategic factors. The Conservative Party claims 124,000 members, which seems high (average 200 members per constituency). Most are elderly. Few are active. The median age for Conservative voters has also risen, to 52. Recent polling has shown that only 16% of voters under 35 support the Cons, and only 4% of those under 25 do so.
Returning to UKIP etc, the Brexit Party will obviously have the effect of splitting the Leave/Brexit hard core.
Update, 17 April 2019
The “For Britain” “Movement” (can 50 people be a “movement”?) has posted on GAB that they are not “far right” (whatever that means) and in some ways are no more “extreme” than Margaret Thatcher and not even really “socially conservative”. Oh dear…pretty pathetic.
I don’t know why I am even wasting 10 minutes of my ever-shorter lifespan examining this fake “movement” with its 50 members, especially after its recent (latest) electoral debacle at the Newport West by-election (last-placed out of 11 candidates; 159 votes, which represented 0.7% of votes cast).