Tag Archives: LibDems

Boris Johnson, Brexit, elections, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

General Election 2019 Daily Updated Blog

39 Comments

I have already given a preliminary opinion piece about the upcoming general election:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/10/30/a-preliminary-look-at-the-2019-general-election/

and in other blog posts have examined Boris Johnson and his Cabinet, Corbyn, the various political parties contending, and some of the main issues in considerable detail.

I am now inclined to blog daily with any significant news. I start with the Daily Mail report below.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7638411/Nigel-Farage-prepares-unveil-Brexit-Party-election-hit-list-HUNDREDS-seats.html

The essence of the report is that Nigel Farage tried to form an electoral pact with the Conservatives, which has now been rejected by “leading Conservatives”. Farage has left the offer open until 14 November, like the businessman he is. The reason for the rejection seems to be that the Conservatives are unwilling to accede to Farage’s demands. Another connected reason would be that the Cons would have to give the Brexit Party a free run in at least some seats.

Since the 19th Century, the Conservative (and Unionist) Party has made it a point of honour to stand a candidate in every Westminster constituency. Another point is that, if Brexit Party were to end up with even a small bloc of seats, BP might later strike out from that citadel and be a far greater danger to the Conservatives. Once a party has more than a tiny number of Westminster seats, it’s launched, it’s a player.

Most Brexit Party members and candidates are far closer to Conservative Party ideology than that of the Labour Party. To some extent, that is true of BP voters too, at least in the South of England.

The Brexit Party has lost its mojo recently. By-election misses, poll doldrums (as Boris-Idiot tried to capture the Leave/Brexit vote). Brexit Party a few days ago was at its lowest in the polls since the Spring: only 7%.

However, one can never quite write off egregious Farage. His bold gambit in demanding that the Cons comply with conditions such as effectively gifting him a bloc of seats may energize Brexit Party now that the Conservatives have so contemptuously refused the proposal.

Boris Johnson is no “One Nation” Prime Minister. He was jeered and booed when leaving Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge, yesterday. The Conservatives may have been at 42% in the polls a few days ago (published yesterday but work done a week ago) but I doubt that that can be maintained.

Brexit Party has the power to hit Labour, but it has the ability to hit the Conservatives worse. There are large numbers of seats where a Brexit Party candidate can mean a Conservative candidate losing to a LibDem, or to Labour, or even, who knows, even to…a Brexit Party candidate.

If (at present, a big if) Farage and Brexit Party can pick up speed, increasing support from the recent 7% to 15% or more, Boris-Idiot is toast, along with the Conservative Party. The Conservatives may then find themselves, not with the solid majority they want but worse off than they are now.

The BBC’s outline:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49826655

Update, 2 November 2019

(Mike Ashley is a barrow-boy “entrepreneur” who makes Alan Sugar look like Andrew Carnegie).

(might mean a Con majority of 90+, if accurate…)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/02/boris-johnson-brexit-populism-tories-lifeline

“The polling website Britain Elects has interpreted these as showing a current Tory vote share of about 35%, roughly 10 points ahead of Labour; and the analytical website Electoral Calculus has extrapolated a Tory majority on 12 December of about 70. That would be by far the party’s largest since Margaret Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987. There are obvious flaws to this suggestion that Johnson will win decisively. In 2017, May had an even bigger initial poll lead, but it shrank to almost nothing by election day. And this year’s contest is potentially more volatile still.” [The Guardian]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/30/the-guardian-view-on-a-volatile-electorate-disunited-and-unpredictable

“The fanfare at the launch of a general election tends to obscure the reality that Britain’s voting system involves hundreds of very particular local elections. That constituency variation, combined with unusual volatility in party identification, makes the poll due on 12 December highly unpredictable. Brexit has shuffled conventional loyalties, forcing the Conservatives in particular to seek support on unfamiliar terms.” [The Guardian]

Update, 3 November 2019

In a sign of the increasing volatility and unpredictability of the UK electorate, the latest opinion poll now places Conservative Party on 36%, Labour Party 28%, LibDems 14%, Brexit Party 12%.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/tory-majority-doubt-telegraph-poll-shows-lead-just-eight-points/

By Electoral Calculus calculation, that could still give the Conservatives a Commons majority of 40+, but is a long way below other recent estimates. In 2017, the Conservatives started the General Election campaign very far ahead of Labour, but the advantage had almost disappeared by polling day. Another few days and Labour would have overtaken.

“Jewish families will leave the UK if Jeremy Corbyn wins general election, Tory chair James Cleverly says” [Daily Telegraph]. Yay!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/jewish-families-will-leave-uk-jeremy-corbyn-wins-general-election/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Update, 3 November 2019

These connected tweets made me laugh. Ghastly old Jewish “ho” Edwina Currie got a shock while canvassing for the “Conservative” candidate in the High Peak constituency of Derbyshire:

Surprisingly (perhaps not very), she ignores the occupier’s plea that he is very busy and engaged on a conference call; she just ploughs on regardless.

Jesus! If that ghastly apparition appeared outside my home on Halloween, after dark, I would arm myself with a mallet and a wooden stake!

Meanwhile, on the national stage, Nigel Farage has announced that he himself will not be contesting any seat, but that Brexit Party will now be contesting at least 600 seats.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7644269/Nigel-Farage-says-WONT-stand-MP-snap-election.html

This will obviously have an effect on Conservative vote-shares in those constituencies and on the number of Conservative MPs returned. To what extent that is so depends on how high the support for Brexit Party goes. If only 5%-10%, maybe not so serious. If 10%-15%, possibly enough to prevent a Conservative majority in the Commons. If anything like 20%+, it is Goodnight Vienna for the Conservatives, especially if Labour and the LibDems also increase their shares.

The Conservatives are taking the Brexit Party effect seriously, which is why they just offered the Brexit Party chairman, Richard Tice MEP, a safe rural Conservative seat if he would defect (he has, it seems, refused).

Update, 4 November 2019

Conservative Party candidate for Gower, one Francesca O’Brien, wrote that those living on State benefits should be “put down”:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50283520

and now it seems that Ross Thomson [Con, Aberdeen South] will not be standing for re-election after having been caught engaging in gay sex assaults.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7644987/Tory-MP-wont-fight-General-Election-Labour-MP-claims-tried-stick-hand-trousers.html

I have only one regret about this nasty little shit leaving the Commons: I was going to include him in my “Deadhead MPs— An Occasional Series”. Plenty of fish, though.

In a way, the Ross Thomson story is the tale of how the Conservative Party has become something totally alien. A few extracts from his Wikipedia entry:

“Prior to entering politics, Thomson worked as a store trainer for department store Debenhams“;

“On 5 October 2016, Thomson repaid expenses relating to a night’s stay in an Edinburgh hotel with a male friend whom he subsequently hired.[16]“;

[“hired” the “male friend” on his MP’s expenses, of course…was he giving the “male friend” a test drive?]

“On 3 November 2019 MP Paul Sweeney accused Thomson of sexual assault in the Strangers’ Bar in October 2018.[22] Denying wrongdoing, later the same day Thomson announced that he would not stand for re-election as the Member of Parliament for Aberdeen South, saying that allegations of groping had made his life ‘a living hell’. [23] However, this was later contradicted when it emerged that he only stood down when the chairman of his local Conservative Association refused to sign his nomination papers to allow him to stand as a Conservative candidate.“;

“On 6 February 2019, various newspapers reported unsubstantiated claims that Thomson had been escorted by police from the Strangers’ Bar of the House of Commons the previous evening. Initial reports indicated that police had attended following reports of “sexual touching” of patrons by the MP. Eyewitnesses claimed that Thomson had repeatedly groped several young men also present in the bar, grabbing their bottoms and genitals. No prosecutions followed and a Conservative Party investigation is yet to conclude, but the Parliamentary Commissioner on Standards dismissed the complaint.[28][29][30][31] Thomson has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, citing the allegations as politically motivated.[32]“

The damn cheek of the bastard! He has the gall (re. the above) to say that he is a victim! (because he has been “trolled” online about his degenerate behaviour).

Here he is, a couple of years ago, weaselling about the Bedroom Tax:

All that, and now I read that the bastard is in favour of mass immigration and wanted to make the UK a friendlier place for “refugees” and other migrant-invaders! This creature was (is still, for the next few days) a Conservative Party MP!

Breathing cleaner air, the latest news about Brexit Party seems to be that BP is going to put up 600+ candidates unless Boris-Idiot complies with several demands. Looks as though Brexit Party is going to rain on the “Conservative” parade (if Brexit Party can climb higher in the polls, at least)…

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-party-farage-general-election-dup-corbyn-labour-a9183851.html

Back in the (((swamp))), I see that “they” have arranged a suitably well-paid safety net for sex-pest depressive and Israel mouthpiece, John Woodcock, who had to resign the Labour whip when he was exposed, so ending his political career(ism). He is going to be engaged in spying on social nationalists and trying to close down free speech. I blogged about this unpleasant individual a couple of years ago:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/john-woodcock-barrow-and-furness-and-the-general-election-2017/

The comments (hundreds of them) under that tweet are very amusing…(click on the tweet to read the thread).

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-woodcock-counter-far-right-extremism-home-office-job_uk_5dc07343e4b0615b8a9743e0

Update, 5 November 2019

I just noticed the date. How will history remember these years of our lives in England’s long history?

Remember remember

The 5th of November

Gunpowder, treason and plot,

Life is short and memory long

And traitors deserve to be shot

[I suppose that, in these febrile and unfree times, I should add that the poetic whimsy above does not constitute any injunction or incitement to anyone to be beastly to MPs, or indeed to anyone, whether mentioned in this blog post or not…]

Back to boring old General Election news, and it seems to me that today marks the start of the real campaign. Corbyn is at least vocalizing the reality, that the Boris-Idiot Cabinet of Israeli agents and doormats for the Jewish lobby plans to impose a “free market” dystopia on the British people. When/if enough people realize that, the Conservative Party lead will evaporate.

The government of David Cameron-Levita promised to build 200,000 new affordable houses. Not one was built. If the UK stopped importing unwanted blacks, browns etc, new houses would be unnecessary anyway, but that is another issue. The point is that promises are cheap and, in the mouth of Boris-Idiot, easily made.

I saw cocaine-abusing Israel doormat Michael Gove today on Sky News. One of the (in the end) five tweets by reason of which I was wrongfully disbarred in 2016 was that describing Michael Gove, entirely accurately, as a “pro-Israel, pro-Jew expenses cheat”. At that time, the public was unaware that Gove was also a cocaine-snorter. He looked drugged or drunk in the Chamber of the House of Commons recently. When will the British people wake up to the corrupt political/msm milieux, aka “the (((swamp)))”?

Seems that Robert Largan, “Conservative” candidate for High Peak (Derbyshire) is tweeting mostly about Alison Chabloz, with the odd negative attack on the Labour candidate and present MP, Ruth George. Largan seems obsessed with “anti-Semitism”, but then he is an accountant working for Marks & Spencer in London.

All Mr. Largan has to do now is learn to regularly shove cocaine up his nose (I shall be polite and assume that he does not already do so…) and he will be welcome at Gove’s degenerate parties…

Largan has tweeted or retweeted nine or ten times about Alison Chabloz in the past few days. His other tweets mostly try to attack the Labour candidate, Ruth George, using “guilt-by-association”. It is clear that Largan has nothing much useful to say to the voters of High Peak. He seems mostly interested in keeping in with a certain (((lobby))).

Here is what Largan and all “Conservative” MPs and candidates now support (click to listen):

High Peak’s “Conservative” candidate (who lives in a chi-chi part of London) is in fact a member of Conservative Friends of Israel. Quelle surprise…In fact, he went on a (subsidized?) trip to Israel only a few months ago. The cheek of the bastard! Surely he could wait until becoming an MP before freeloading?! I wonder whether he will be elected. I hope not. There are enough Israel-doormats in the Commons already.

https://cfoi.co.uk/cfi-coordinates-delegation-to-israel-with-conservative-parliamentary-candidates/

Some people are taking things into their own hands:

Meanwhile, there is movement in the opinion polls. While all polling shows that the Conservative Party is well ahead, a minority of polls are now showing a diminution in that lead.

That polling would result in a Conservative Party majority of about 16 seats, according to Electoral Calculus. Boris-Idiot would welcome that, though it is far from the recent predictions of 100-seat majorities. I sense a slight change in the air. Corbyn and Labour are never going to be flavour of the month with most voters, but I sense a new determination on the part of many to try to stop Boris-Idiot and his satraps from becoming an elected ZOG/NWO tyranny, as they assuredly would be, had they a majority in the Commons.

Another poll:

Brexit Party will have to get a long way up from 11% to make a really big impact. That YouGov poll would still give Boris-Idiot a Commons majority of as much as 126 seats; but things are now starting to move. The ice is beginning to melt.

Below: desperate…

This, below, from the Daily Mail Comments section, made me laugh! (capital letters in original)

“LABOUR ARE NO LONGER THE PARTY OF THE WORKER……..PREFERRING THE PROFESSIONAL SHIRKER….THE INCOMING(Postal vote) B>U>R>K>A …AND THE PIE MUNCHING BACK STREET LURKER!”

Latest: Phillip Hammond not seeking re-election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/philip-hammond-to-step-down-as-tory-mp-after-22-years

Update, 6 November 2019

Yet another Conservative Party MP has decided to give up politics. Lazy half-Jew chancer and general waste of space Ed Vaizey will not be again contesting Wantage, a safe Conservative seat. He would undoubtedly have been re-elected, but his chance of further ministerial preferment (he was Secretary of State for Culture for several years, absurdly) would have been minimal, at least in the short term. He was obviously unwilling to stay on as a backbench MP for years, or indefinitely, and unlike many MPs, does not need the money.

Alison Chabloz has commented on the attack both on her and on Labour candidate Ruth George by prp-Israel Marks & Spencer accountant and “Conservative” candidate for High Peak, Robert Largan:

https://alisonchabloz.com/2019/11/06/why-the-entire-system-is-unfit-for-office/

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

A Preliminary Look at the 2019 General Election

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The 2019 General Election has been called, enabled partly by the LibDems and SNP, as John Rentoul, the only System journalist-commentator usually worth listening to, has written.

I was surprised that Labour did not block the vote, but I suppose that, with the Government ready to repeal, in effect, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, using a one-page bill, Labour had little choice but to appear unafraid to address the electorate.

So what now?

It it has been axiomatic, since Harold Wilson pronounced his famous dictum, that “a week is a long time in British politics”.

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[Harold Wilson as Prime Minister, pictured in 1967 on the quayside at Hugh Town on the island of St. Mary’s, Isles of Scilly; the young Millard, 9-10 years old, at left]

Harold Wilson was sceptical of opinion polls. When he was in discussion with Lyndon Johnson about the Vietnam War, the U.S. President asked “what are the polls saying?” Wilson later recalled that he had thought that Johnson was referring to the Poles, and that he, Wilson, had tried to recall recent speeches by Gomulka!

That was then. Since then, British politics has given up the realms of commonsense thinking and has taken refuge in ideological spiderswebs and in the reading of electoral tea-leaves.

The opinion polls at present seem to be predicting a Conservative Party victory of as great as a 150-seat majority. Even mainstream commentators are talking in terms of a 70-seat Conservative majority. To me, that would be disastrous. Nothing to do with Brexit (which I favour). For me, to allow the present ZOG/NWO Cabinet of idiots, traitors, aliens and Israeli agents real power would be a calamity for the people of the UK. I have previously blogged about this: see Notes, below.

I am talking about domestic policy and, to some extent, foreign policy. I am talking about the imposition of an elected dictatorship on the British people. I am talking about rule by a concealed Jewish-Zionist lobby. I am talking about worse pay, pensions, State benefits, working conditions, living conditions etc. I am talking about destruction of free speech, too.

Is a Boris-Idiot government (with real power) inevitable? I do not know. Maybe not, but things are looking black.

The first thing to note is that polls usually narrow towards Election Day. At present they point to a Conservative majority of maybe 60. However, if Labour can pull itself up by a few points, that majority might shrink to single figures. Then there are the other parties (in England, mainly) to consider: LibDems and Brexit Party.

Labour

The Jewish lobby has weakened Corbyn and Labour via incessant attacks over four years. Some of the poison has seeped into public perception. The attacks continue. Only today, the “MP for Barrow and Furness —and Tel Aviv”, John Woodcock, was again attacking Corbyn and Labour, under the banner of which he scraped back into the Commons in 2017, though he has now left Labour amid charges of sex pest behaviour, and will soon no longer be an MP (no doubt “they” will find him a well-paid position). Again, I happened to see “former Labour Party adviser” John McTernan today on Sky News All Out Politics. Sky’s Adam Boulton was too polite to point out that McTernan’s advice proved disastrous for Labour in the past, and also for the Australian Labor Party. McTernan on Sky again derided Corbyn. With “friends” like those, Labour needs no enemies!

Labour’s more serious problems are, firstly, that it is unclear about what it stands for. Not just on Brexit. No overarching narrative. In the past, Labour’s position was a given: the voice of the “workers”, meaning the industrial proletariat, other manual and low-paid workers, renters rather than “owners” of freehold or leasehold property.

In those days, meaning until the 1970s, there was no serious racial aspect. Though there had been an influx (ultimately calamitous, by reason of breeding) of blacks and browns since the 1950s but mainly in the 1970s (and of course later), the percentage of blacks and browns and other non-Europeans was small until the 1980s; there was no constant wave of immigration in the hundreds of thousands, as there now is.

In the 1980s, Labour lost its way. The industrial proletariat started to disappear along with its industries. Immigration and births to immigrants started to create raceless and cultureless “communities”, including huge numbers of mixed-race individuals. British culture on TV and radio started to be overtaken by the Americanized cultural takeover that started in or immediately after WW2. The stalwarts of traditional Labour in the Commons and in constituencies started to be replaced by those who were influenced by the anti-white politics of post-Marxism, by the feminist and/or lesbian “sexual politics” movements, by persons who were unaware of the fight that Britain had with Jewish extremists in Palestine in the 1940s.

Such Labour activists were brought up in the 1960s and 1970s and had been indoctrinated by “holocaust” hoaxes and nonsense, such as the films of the faked “diary” of Anne Frank, of Schindler’s List (many people now think, quite mistakenly, that it is a “true story”, unaware that it was an adaptation of a novel, Schindler’s Ark, which was written in 1982 by an Australian who was only a child during WW2, having been born in 1935; he was brought up in New South Wales).

Gradually, Labour became the bastion both of the politically-correct ideologues and of the careerist “centrists” such as Tony Blair and his wife, both affluent barristers with no connection to Labour’s history (Blair’s father was a Scottish professor; Cherie’s father was a dissolute Liverpudlian TV actor). Labour went from being led by elderly Marxist hypocrite Michael Foot to, at first, a middling position under, in turn, Neil Kinnock and John Smith, then to Blair’s neoliberalism, with the Jewish-Zionist element firmly in control.

Labour lost connection with the “working class”, first because the old monolithic, unionized industrial proletariat had gone, and because the new concerns of former Labour areas (mass immigration, race and culture, poor conditions of non-unionized and precarious employment, sexual abuse of English girls by, mainly, Pakistanis, drug abuse) were simply ignored and, indeed, denied by the Labour Party.

Labour, in short, was becoming, under Blair, what it now is: the party of non-Europeans (the “blacks and browns” etc), of those dependent on public funds (public service workers, council employees, NHS people, those living on State benefits). These Labour voters were ruled over by a dictatorial pro-multikulti Common Purpose stratum, above which sat the Labour Friends of Israel MPs and above all the Jewish-Zionist “fixers” of the Lord Levy sort, who arranged the funding, doled out peerages and other “honours” to the compliant and “liaised” with Blair and his courtiers.

Meanwhile, Labour’s leadership became a cosmopolitan and finance-capitalist clique, “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” as one of its degenerate creatures, the Jew “lord” Mandelson put it. By 2010, it seemed to many that there was little difference in substance (as distinct from style) between Labour and Conservative. Labour lost to the Conservatives led by David Cameron-Levita.

Corbyn, though poorly-educated and no sort of leader, gave hope to the “children of the proletariat” (speaking ideologically: many are from rather comfortable backgrounds). His almost miraculous accession to leadership seemed to be a return to old Labour values: community, nationalization, State funding, workers’ rights. I have blogged about the “Hand of God” aspects to Corbyn’s election, eg his getting exactly the number of nominations required, some of which were from MPs who had no intention of even voting for him!

Labour now is a house divided. The Jewish-Zionist lobby may have attacked Corbyn-Labour, but that is only part of the story. Most Labour MPs date from the pre-Corbyn era, most from the pre-2010 era. Some MPs are volubly anti-Corbyn and closer to a careerist “Blairite” or “Brownite” position, such as Jess Phillips (ironically, only elected in 2015).

Labour gives an impression of being split two or three ways, and that is even before Brexit is mixed into the equation. This plays badly, electorally.

So are Labour’s prospects dead? Maybe not. Firstly, it has the support of the non-whites, to a large extent, though that tends to be concentrated in relatively few constituencies. Then it has most of the public service people. Finally, it has the young. Very few under-25s vote Conservative now, only about 4%. Only about 15% of under-35s vote Conservative. The rub is that younger eligible voters tend not to vote. So far.

Corbyn’s policies on utilities, transport and fares, rights for tenants etc may play well for him, if Labour can get them heard amid the Brexit noise and the Boris-The-Idiot-Star clowning and posturing.

Where Labour is undermined is in its disconnect, in visceral terms, from its former core communities: eg in the black-brown MPs Labour has, some of whom seem almost half-witted. Diane Abbott would be Home Secretary under a Corbyn government…

Corbyn’s lack of leadership is also a factor, as is his asinine support for Roma Gypsy thieves and scavengers and for the horrible “tinker”/”traveller” element. That must alienate millions.

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In the end, Labour now has no real reason to exist in its present form. It is somewhat neo-socialist, but not at all “national”. It divides rather than unifies, because it prefers non-Europeans to the white British people among whom and for whom it was founded.

“I am a socialist, but a white man first.” [Jack London]

The Conservative Party

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1189506699457118208?s=20

The above parody tweet was sent to me by a blog reader. It does rather set the scene for the past decade, the “austerity” (inflicted by part-Jews David Cameron-Levita and George Osborne and continued by Theresa May and now —so far— by Boris Johnson, again both part-Jew…) upon the poorer half or more of the UK, while the more affluent half and especially tenth of the population have been “doing rather well”

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I have blogged rather extensively about the Conservative Party and about its leading members, particularly Boris Johnson aka “Boris-Idiot”.

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The Conservative Party, like Labour, has travelled far from its roots, even far from where it was in the 1970s. The old country Conservatives scarcely exist in MP terms now. Like Labour, the Conservative Party is now packed with pretty mediocre MPs, most in it for the money. In fact, many would be flattered to be as good as mediocre. Like Labour, the Conservative Party has ceased to be representative, not only of the country as a whole but even of its traditional supporters. In the 1950s, nearly 5 million people were members of the Conservative Party. Now? About 140,000. Boris Johnson was elected by about two-thirds of those. 92,000 people in a UK which now holds some 70 million. Only 1 in about 500 adult inhabitants of the UK is a member of the Conservative Party.

The trump card of the Conservative Party in this election is that it is not the Labour Party. It has little else to offer, except the Brexit “deal” that Boris-Idiot fluffed and which is worse than that offered to Mrs May 18 months ago. It is only the clown-image, of Boris the Clown, which, bizarrely, is keeping the Cons high in the polls. That, and Corbyn’s rock-bottom ratings.

So Johnson has once again gambled. The gamble is that he can win more Leave-supporting seats than he loses Remain-supporting seats.

Stress points for the Conservatives? Privatization, by the back door, of the NHS; Johnson’s character; the wealthy getting wealthier, the rest getting poorer; privatized rail and utilities; poor pay; the cruelty of the post-2010 benefits system.

LibDems

Ironically, the key to the LibDems taking seats might be Brexit Party taking away Con votes in the South of England, and so letting the LibDems in. That might happen even more if Labour voters in strongly Con areas vote tactically. I do not have much time for Jo Swinson, a pro-finance capitalist and Orange Book LibDem who pays lip service to the Jew-Zionist lobby, but I have to concede that she has put in a couple of stellar performances in the Commons recently.

The LibDems are pro-EU, pro-Remain, anti-Brexit. They are the only party unequivocally Remain. That clarity has to help them. How much it will help them is unclear. They need to get an across the board 20%+ even to regain the number of seats they had in 2010 and 2005. They are presently polling around 18%, but the night is young.

Brexit Party

Brexit Party has lost its mojo somehow. Its stellar start, with the rallies and speeches and huge enthusiasm, seems a long time ago already. I think that the reason is that Brexit is really its only policy, though others will no doubt appear soon. It is largely “the Conservative Party at Leave”, and people do have concerns other than Brexit. I doubt that it can poll much above 10%. It might manage 15% across the board. Chance of gaining more than one or two stray seats seems minimal at present. However, that may change, but BP needs to start attacking the Conservatives, not forever saying how much they want to play ball with them.

UKIP; Change UK

Both washed up, as I have long predicted. Polling at statistical zero. Dustbin of history zone.

Thoughts

There are 6 weeks to go. In 2017, turnout was below 69%. In 2015, turnout was 66% and in 2010, 65%. 2005: 61%. 2001: 59%. Since the 1990s, turnout slumped in 2001 and has gradually increased again but is still several points below the 1990s figures. If there were an unexpectedly high turnout, particularly among the younger voters who generally favour Labour or the LibDems, that could change the picture completely.

At present, the smart money is on the Conservatives. The smart money was on Remain in 2016, on Hillary Clinton to beat Trump, on anyone but Corbyn to replace Ed Miliband. You get the picture. I do not think that Labour can do well on its own merits, but devotees of the Turf will know that frontrunners rarely win. The election is Boris’s to lose, and he may yet do just that, counter-intuitive though that now appears.

Notes

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-december-boris-corbyn-swinson-snp-a9175836.html

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/07/25/the-boris-johnson-cabinet/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/the-latest-boris-brexit-noise-what-happens-now/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/27/a-few-words-about-labours-chances-now/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/19/brexit-party-the-party-of-nothing/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/boris-angela-and-macron-too/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/les-eminences-grises-of-dystopia/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/06/we-may-be-on-the-brink-of-political-disintegration/

Further thought, 31 October 2019

This is an example of where Britain went wrong during the 1980s, 1990s and particularly under the 1997-2010 Blair-Brown era, and which continued on into the 2010-2019 years:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632457/Luxury-Marbella-home-expert-earning-2-000-day.html

This sort of nonsense has to just stop. Now.

Update, 31 October 2019

News heard on the early Today Programme on BBC Radio 4:

  • Farage has been reported as possibly going to direct Brexit Party to stand in as few as 20 seats, all Labour-held, 2016 Leave-voting seats;

Could it be any clearer that Brexit Party is not a serious party, not even a semi-serious protest party? I think that Brexit Party can probably be written off at this point.

The news, if accurate, does reinforce my previously-blogged point that Farage, despite his people skills, speaking skills and public profile, is not really very knowledgeable or effective politically. After all, UKIP was in the end a big Westminster zero after 25 years of operation and, so far, Brexit Party has underwhelmed. No by-election successes, and its polling for Westminster has dropped from 20% at one point to 12% now. My feeling is that Brexit Party could have gone the distance, but missed its moment to morph into a real party.

The other piece of news so far today is polling that, incredibly, shows

  • Boris Johnson “more trusted on NHS” than Corbyn!

Whatever one thinks of Corbyn, this is just mad and bolsters my view that the UK has gone mad, socio-politically. Already, we have had polling, from a month ago, to the effect that part-Jew, part-Muslim origined Johnson, whose father was a part-Jew who worked for the World Bank and was an MP, Boris Johnson who had a U.S. passport until recently, who was born in New York City, was brought up in USA and Belgium before attending Eton and Oxford, and who even belonged to the wealth-saturated and degenerate Bullingdon Club, “has the common touch” more than Corbyn!

On the campaign trail

The latest Ipsos MORI poll gives Conservatives 41%, Labour 24%, LibDems 20%, Brexit Party 7%, Greens 3%.

“Ratings for the Government as a whole are low, with just 19 per cent of voters happy with how it is running the country, including only a third of Conservatives, while 74 per cent are dissatisfied. Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, cautioned: “As Theresa May knows, a poll lead can be lost during a campaign and this puts the Conservatives at the upper margins compared with other polls. Nevertheless it confirms the Conservatives are starting in a strong position.” [Evening Standard]

If the above poll is accurate, we are staring down the barrel of a Conservative majority of 196, according to my use of Electoral Calculus (I gave Scottish results as likely SNP 50% and LibLabCon 15% each). That 196-seat majority would be disastrous for the UK.

Still, the starting gates have only just opened. All the same, Labour needs to hit hard now. For example, instead of weakly accepting that “antisemitism must be addressed” etc, Labour should start defending the British people; point out that many exploiters and parasites in the UK—by no means all, of course– are Zionists. Take the fight to the enemy and Labour might well find that many many British people want the Zionists taken down, their influence and power reduced greatly.

The opinion polls are proving to me that what so many British people want and need is social nationalism of the right sort.

Below, “Conservative” and, quelle surprise, not entirely English (part-Indian?), judging by photos found elsewhere than on her Twitter profile, freelance scribbler seems to have been living under a rock (or under the protection of a trust fund or affluent family) for the past 10+ years.

Ms. Gill does seem to understand that there is the possibility of radical change inherent in the dispossessed UK young (and, indeed, the not so young). She does not want such change and does not exactly identify what change it might be (“economic armageddon” sounds to me suspiciously like socio-political illiteracy), but the change in question could as easily be social national as post-Marxist.

Strange. Perhaps I was too critical. She seems to take a different and more sympathetic view here (or is it just that she is more concerned about things when they affect her own and personal life?): *click on it and read entire thread…

More

Now this [below], if understood by enough people in their 50s and 40s, might be a gamechanger:

Update, 1 November 2019

Below, a very accurate though totally obvious view of what has been happening over the past decade in the UK. Though I would not want any Jew to be Prime Minister, I did like the way in which Ed Miliband had time for ideas, for policy, and for the results of applied policy; a holistic view. That used to be the norm in UK politics, before the rise of socio-political idiocy in or around 2005-2010, the Iain Dunce Duncan Smith-type of nonsense.

I do not recall seeing this [below] on BBC News or Sky:

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

A Few Words About Labour’s Chances Now

64 Comments

I was so pleased that Alison Chabloz got bail this afternoon (after having had to spend three days in prison) that I nearly forgot to blog about Labour’s recent conference, which ended yesterday.

[On Alison Chabloz, by the way, she is free pending appeal, which will not be heard for months in all likelihood. In the meantime, she can post on her website, sing songs, whatever. It seems that her bail is unconditional. She has now spent a total of 5 days or part-days in prison or in court on the breach of condition matter. That means that even if she fails on appeal (which itself will be another day taken off any time to be served in prison), she will only have 22 days to serve including day of release. So really 21 days. Unpleasant but bearable for her, though perhaps not for her persecutors, who have been desperate for their pound of flesh.]

So back to Labour and its chances in the upcoming general election.

I think that we have to start from the baseline that Labour is now a joke. There always were joke elements in Labour, thinking of that old hypocrite Michael Foot and his “donkey jacket” etc. Corbyn in some respects personifies that late 1970s or 1980s Labour. As I have blogged previously, Corbyn is a familiar English “type”, the middleaged-to-elderly and probably white-bearded “socialist”, with his “Lenin” cap and copy of (in the past anyway) the Morning Star, Tribune or at least The Guardian; to be found at allotment gardens, socialist commemorations such as the Durham Miners’ Gala or the annual remembrance of the Tolpuddle Martyrs, at steam rallies or heritage railway stations. I think of Corbyn as one of those Edwardian caricatures, with an outsize head and a little descriptive and humorous caption.

The picture I have of Corbyn is more the amiable type described above than the Corbyn of the 1980s, of the IRA sympathies and crypto-Communism. Like so many of his type then, Corbyn must have found it hard to reconcile the “Green Fascism” (as some term it) of the Provos with the “social rights” bleating of the inner-city Labour Party, let alone whatever back-of-postcard “Marxism-Leninism” Corbyn may have picked up from his truncated course (he dropped out after a year) in Trade Union Studies at North London Poly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn#Early_life , and then to mix that in with some attachment to the British form of representative Parliamentary democracy.

Again, I have tweeted and (after the Jews had me expelled from Twitter) blogged from 2016 about Corbyn’s rather poor intellectual and cultural level, how he is a poor leader (in fact, no leader at all), and about his cartoon political level: “Jews good, Zionism bad; wars bad except for the war against Hitler’s Germany and any wars conducted by Marxists”; “The Battle of Cable Street” in which “the people of East London” “defeated” Mosley and the [British Union of] Fascists; “!No pasaran!” (and other pathetic misunderstandings of the politics of the 1930s).

It is easy to laugh at Corbyn as a politician or generally, though if he is thought unfit to lead a major party or the British government, then he is no more so than have been others, such as David Cameron-Levita, Theresa May or, now, Boris-Idiot.

As the days go on, it is clear that very few people in this country think that Boris Johnson is a fit and proper person to be Prime Minister. Every day that goes by reduces him as a prime ministerial, let alone statesmanlike, figure. It has nothing to do with Brexit. I favour Brexit. I do not favour Boris-Idiot, who is doubling down on Brexit as the only way to keep a bloc or constituency of voters voting Conservative. Johnson’s Cabinet is entirely composed of Conservative Friends of Israel members, who want to impose a ZOG/NWO tyranny on the UK. Most of them are also complete deadheads.

I believe that, for several years now, the voters have been voting against the party they hate most, rather than for the party they support most.

What are Labour’s positive points for voters? What are the negative points?

Labour has a number of policies which might appeal to those voters not completely hostile: promises to tenants, the young generally, the elderly generally, commuters, those faced with ever-higher utility bills etc.

As to the negatives, well, I did not watch much of the recent Labour Party Conference on TV, but a few things did strike me. I saw a wild-eyed and fanatical young man (in fact he looked completely mad) who wanted to abolish all independent schools (was he a teacher? Good grief! I suppose that that is why the main teaching union is called NUT). I also saw the delegates vote to, in effect, open Britain’s borders to almost all immigrants, as well as keep free movement of labour (in reality, that would include “Roma” Gypsy thieves and scavengers) within the EU, as part of keeping the UK within the EU. They also voted to allow all immigrants to receive State benefits, to work, and to vote.

Opinion polls are strongly against abolition of independent schools and against open borders. Most voters also oppose more immigration. The Labour policies (not yet official) would mean yet further hordes of backward immigrants from all over the world coming to the UK, either being supported by the State or driving down pay levels (probably both), occupying housing sorely needed for British people, using stretched services such as NHS, schools, trains, roads etc. Those immigrants would be able, if Labour were in power, to vote (so no truly British party would have a chance), and to import “family members”, so increasing the non-white population even more. Those would then breed. It would mean the end of this country as a decent place for white British people.

Then we look at who would be in a Labour Cabinet. We have already mentioned Corbyn. What about this absurd drunken “ho”?

Emily Thornberry, aka Lady Nugee (her husband being a half-Jewish High Court judge); the photograph below shows the couple at a Zionist dinner, alongside the Israeli Ambassador to the UK.

EmilyThornberryIsraelLobby

Then we have Angela Rayner, who wants to abolish non-State education, as likely Secretary of State… and what about the blacks around Corbyn? Kate Osamor? She might be in Cabinet (she was in the Shadow Cabinet until recent scandals) if Corbyn can form a government. I blogged about her a while ago, after her son (employed by her at £50,000 a year via her MP expenses) was convicted but not imprisoned for drug dealing. He was kept out of prison because his mother pulled strings. I have heard of “the political jungle”, but really…

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/troop-cartload-barrel-or-family/

and who could forget Diane Abbott?!

https://news.sky.com/video/when-the-maths-just-does-add-up-for-diane-abbott-10860592

This idiot could be Home Secretary soon!

When you look at all the negatives, you can see why even those who hate or mistrust the Conservatives are often now unwilling to vote Labour. These deadheads in the highest seats of government…and voting for even more mass immigration. Nein danke.

The opinion polls are all over the place, and in the past month have veered from giving the Conservatives a Commons majority of 200 right through to Labour being largest party but without a majority. Incredibly, Boris-Idiot is still way ahead of Corbyn as Prime Minister material. Truly, Eton and Oxford are the materials that make stupidity shine! Even unpleasant Jo Swinson is ahead of Corbyn, though!

The Survation poll above puts the Conservatives as largest party but (via Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) a huge 54 votes short of a majority (but with the LibDems on 61 seats, a second Con Coalition is possible). The ComRes poll puts Labour ahead, but even further from a majority: 57 short. The LibDems under Jo Swinson have ruled out a coalition with Labour under Corbyn (a sign of how embedded the Jewish lobby now is in the LibDems), but Labour could still just about form a minority government with the votes of SNP, Plaid, Green and some Northern Irish MPs.

Conclusion

Boris Johnson is trying to weaponize Brexit in the hope that it can be his chariot back to power and with a majority. It might work. Certainly, without the Brexit vote, Johnson is toast, the Conservative Party is toast.

Labour has almost caught up with the Conservatives in the opinion polls. That seems to augur well for Labour in the sense that it means that a complete collapse is less likely despite the contempt in which many voters seem to hold the party. As always in the UK, the FPTP voting system, the contrived boundaries of constituencies and the existence of “safe seats” (a high majority of seats are considered “safe” in most circumstances) make the election hard to call. At present, I think that a hung Parliament is still the most likely result. A majority for the Conservatives is also possible. Labour? Hard to be dogmatic, but their best result would probably be to be largest party in the Commons, with a plurality but not majority of seats.

Notes

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-27/exclusive-snp-set-to-back-corbyn-as-caretaker-prime-minister-writes-robert-peston/

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…by the way… Indians often cannot do two things

  1. Drive;
  2. Handle alcohol.

Here is “Baroness” Chakrabarti at the “Labour” Conference, proving the second contention…

https://www.channel4.com/news/labours-shami-chakrabarti-if-i-were-boris-johnson-i-think-i-would-resign

https://twitter.com/lenathehyena/status/1176565785994641408?s=20

and other tweeters notice her hypocrisy: Shami Chakrabarti favours abolition of independent schools, yet sends her son to Dulwich College! A bit like Diane Abbott, who sent all her children to fee-paying schools while decrying private education…

Update, 27 September 2019, 2300 hrs

This is certainly going to be a vote-winner for Labour as well as being the only right and proper thing to do. Having said that, most people likely to be benefited (literally) by this policy either vote Labour already or do not vote. Only complete idiots would vote Conservative or LibDem if they are reliant on State benefits; they would be turkeys voting for Christmas. Will others, floating voters not on benefits, vote Labour because of this? Some might, but in my view not enough to be very significant electorally, though I might be wrong.

Update, 28 September 2019

The latest opinion poll published (by YouGov, from work done 3-4 days ago, so not quite up-to-date in a fast-moving and volatile political environment).

That would give the Conservative Party a Commons majority of perhaps 48. However, the two other recently-published polls (see above), which were far more favourable to Labour, took their soundings on the same days as did YouGov. Just shows how uncertain is the public mood now.

I happened to see this, from The Times, tweeted by one of the active Jew-Zionists on Twitter (involved with the anti-Corbyn-Labour GnasherJew cabal) and others:

Of course, the Jews want rid of Corbyn and having been trying to depose him for 4 years now, using every lever of influence they have in the msm, as well as over many suborned Labour Party MPs (eg Tom Watson). That despite Corbyn having paid lip service to the “holocaust” fakery etc.

Having said that, there is no doubt that Corbyn is not resonating as much as he might with former Labour voters. The Jewish lobby campaign against Corbyn has, of course, had an effect, though that is not the whole story. Corbyn is associated with the kind of Labour stances that most English people (especially) instinctively know are detrimental to them: mass immigration, fake “equalities” laws, backward-looking 1980s Labour Party socialism etc.

That is rather unfair (it was Tony Blair’s social-democratic Labour that imported the really huge waves of recent immigration after 1997, for example), but there it is. The people have the instinctive feeling that Corbyn-Labour is somehow anti-British (though I myself see it as no more so —in some ways less– than “centrist” pro-Israel Blairite Labour, or indeed the Zionist-ruled “Conservative Party).

Ultimately, my view is the Labour and Conservative parties are both sliding. A new wave will rise up.

Update, 29 September 2019

…and Angela Rayner wants the voting age to be 16. Well, why not? After all, she herself managed to get knocked-up at 16, so she was certainly sensible…oh, no, wait…

In fact, why not reduce the voting age lower yet, so that the in-school brainwashing about the multikulti society can really have an electoral effect…

This is desperate. It’s just the toss of a coin now as to which of the two largest System parties collapses first.

Update, 2 October 2019

John Rentoul is ideologically far from me, but is always worth reading all the same; probably the best-informed of the System commentators:

Update, 28 October 2019

I saw this tweet (the thread is worth reading; click on the tweet):

What I take away from the tweet, mainly, is the first sentence: many (most?) people that that lady meets think that she is basically silly (and in the minority?) for supporting Corbyn-Labour. The tweeter’s Twitter profile reveals that she is from Leeds, which has 8 MPs, 5 of whom are Labour MPs. I do not know Leeds, but know that it is not natural Corbyn territory: e.g. the highest ratio of private to public sector jobs of any major UK city (77% private, 23% public). Leeds is (officially) 85% “white”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds

Even so, the comments (and those of other tweets in the thread) are telling. Corbyn-Labour is just not breaking through beyond Labour’s core vote, and maybe not even there, much.

From the same thread:

What matters, electorally, is the perception.

Alt-Right, Boris Johnson, Brexit, Carl Benjamin, Colin Robertson, Count Dankula, elections, free speech, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Mark Meechan, Millennial Woes, MPs, Party Politics, Paul Watson, Prison Planet, Sargon of Akkad, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

Brexit Party, The Party of…Nothing

142 Comments

Background

My attention has been caught by a recent tweet from a Brexit Party MEP previously unknown to me:

At first, I thought that that tweet was a fake and/or a parody, or perhaps tweeted in a spirit of satire. No. It is real and it is meant to be taken at face-value. The bastard really is urging Brexit Party members, supporters and voters (of which I am not and have never been one, by the way) to give money to one of the organizations ferrying migrant-invaders across the Mediterranean from North Africa to civilized Europe.

When many people who support —or did until now support— Brexit Party criticized Nielsen’s support for this people-ferrying soi-disant “charity”, the new MEP’s response was textbook System-politician:

The thread of further comments on Twitter is worth reading. All UK political life is there, from well-meaning but stupid ladies (sitting in suburban or rural comfort) who just want to emote about “saving children”, and the sort of basically malicious “anti-racist” idiots (Jewish or otherwise) who want as many non-Europeans as possible to invade the EU and especially the UK, to more sensible people who see that the UK’s population has increased from about 55 million in the 1980s to about 65 million or even 70 million now, most of which is via immigration and from births not only to immigrants but also now to their children and indeed to those children’s children (a demographic time-bomb: experts now say that European-race, i.e. white, people will be in the minority in the UK by 2070 at latest. My guess? 2040. Already some British cities are minority-white).

That does not, it seems, alarm Henrik Nielsen.

Nielsen was born in 1959 in Copenhagen, is 60 years of age and was at one time the head of the anti-EU campaign in Denmark. Why he opposes the EU I do not know. He seems rather at home as an MEP.

Nielsen is married to one Sharon Ruth Bierer, also a dentist, born in London and who has been a director of dental-oriented companies in London. The name Bierer is often of Jewish origin, but not always. Nielsen and his wife have two adult children, Jacob and Laura, the latter of which is, remarkably, the policy director of Labour Leave, the Labour Party pro-Brexit organization.

Nielsen and his wife own a rather pleasant-looking villa in Puglia (Apulia), southern Italy, which they rent out at £300+ per day.

https://www.babyfriendlyboltholes.co.uk/properties/fantese/147900/

https://twitter.com/Reimer_Bard/status/1174128181235933184?s=20

I agree there with tweeter “Reimer Bard”. Brexit Party is faux-nationalist even as compared to its previous incarnation, UKIP.

Finally, the person that Nielsen is supporting in his tweets is this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magid_Magid . A Somali immigrant who claims to have funded a “gap year” by working for only 9 weeks (at 12 hours a day). I suppose that it is just about possible.

Brexit Party

I have blogged several times before about Brexit Party, about its stellar explosion onto the UK political scene, about Farage’s impressive public meetings, about its possible impact on the Conservative vote etc; its EU elections success. I have also chronicled its lack of direct success so far in Westminster by-elections: Peterborough, and then Brecon and Radnorshire. That “close but no cigar” aspect has deflated the Brexit Party bubble somewhat, as has the noise around the person I am pleased to call Boris-Idiot and around the whole current Brexit hullabaloo.

Let’s look again at Brexit Party. It is or is owned by a private company itself controlled by Nigel Farage. In that it has similarity to Momentum, the Labour Party group, which is, or is owned by, a company itself controlled by a couple of Jews.

I have blogged before about the fact that Brexit Party is a party without policy (save for leaving the EU). That is both its strength (i.e. a clear message) and its weakness (the voting public has concerns other than just the EU and Brexit).

I have blogged about not only the strange policy-free nature of Brexit Party but also about its strange mixture of candidates. No less than three out of the Brexit Party EU elections candidates were former Revolutionary Communist Party members (one, Claire Fox, a defender of the IRA Warrington bombing, is now a Brexit Party MEP). Some Brexit Party candidates were of non-European ethnicity, and some of those are now MEPs, including a couple of Jews and a Pakistani.

It is hard to see the ethnic, cultural or ideological ties binding the Brexit Party MEPs inter se. Even the faux-“libertarian” “small state”-ism of many of them does not seem to fit all.

There seem to be more than just a few links between Brexit Party and the Trump set-up.

What is really behind Brexit Party? There is already a Brexit Party Friends of Israel organization. What is the gameplan? To offset any real nationalist upsurge by containing it in the Brexit Party box? Possibly. It worked with UKIP…

Brexit Party electorally

To my mind, the Brexit Party upsurge bubble has been, if not burst, then somewhat punctured, and so partly-deflated. Farage has made the mistake of sitting on the fence between outright support for Boris-Idiot’s supposed Brexitism, and opposition to the Conservative Party. That has weakened Brexit Party to some extent. All the same, and crucially in a situation where is is no real social-national or even small-c conservative-national party, voters in England and Wales are going to have the usual false choice in the next general election: the System parties, or joke candidates such as Monster Raving Loonies and tiny socialist or other parties, or…Brexit Party. It may be that, in desperation, many will vote Brexit Party.

At present, Brexit Party is not breaking through re. Westminster. The latest two polls (published today and yesterday) put the figures as:

CON: 33% (-1) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 23% (+3) BREX: 10% (+1) GRN: 4% (-2)

CON: 32% (-) LDEM: 23% (+4) LAB: 21% (-2) BREX: 14% (-) GRN: 4% (-3).

Those results, fed into Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

make a Conservative majority of either 38 or 46 (I have taken the Scottish results as 50% SNP).

This is frightening. It means that, were there no significant change in the polling, there could be a Boris-Idiot ZOG/NWO [Zionist Occupation Government/New World Order] dystopian regime, an elected dictatorship, in place by the end of the year. If that happens, democracy in any real sense will have died and only determined non-electoral resistance will be able to fight against it.

Having said that, polling often narrows before an election, but Labour is going to have to pull its socks up “majorly” (to use a Trump-ism) if it is going to keep even its present complement of MPs. I suppose that the silver lining would be that many pro-Zionist Labour MPs would go, but that would be little comfort to the British people ruled over by a ZOG dictatorship.

What about Brexit Party itself? Its polling is running between 10% and 15%, which is nowhere. At present, it has no prospect of getting MPs and would have to raise its game to about 25% across the board before getting even a small bloc of MPs. That is not impossible, but if British people see Brexit Party MEPs (who may not even be British by origin…) lecturing them on the supposed “goodness” of supporting migration-invasion etc, the polling will not improve and may even decline in percentage terms.

No social-national party, no conservative-national party, the Conservative Party a ZOG/NWO regime in the making, Labour the party mainly of the blacks and browns, the LibDems supporting both finance-capitalism and migration-invasion, and fake-nationalist Brexit Party joining the multikulti “celebrations”…

This is bad…

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Overgaard-Nielsen

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2007/feb/21/health.comment

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/oRrDJeifXXGU0NIuKgR2GxWikdU/appointments

https://www.homeaway.co.uk/p61527

https://www.babyfriendlyboltholes.co.uk/properties/fantese/147900/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark_and_the_European_Union

https://dbs.bh.org.il/familyname/bierer

https://brexitcentral.com/author/laurabn/

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Update, 21 September 2019

Meanwhile, the msm (in this case, the Daily Mail) persists in calling Roma and other Gypsy thieves and scavengers “Romanians and Bulgarians”…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7488181/Homeless-camp-Londons-Mayfair-cleared-police-crime-wave.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed_desktop_news

23 September 2019

The Remainers’ intellectual dishonesty, exposed in a tweet from an emeritus Professor of Government, no less; nailed by Andrew Neil…

A few thoughts…

I saw this piece in The Guardian. Interesting anyway, but what struck me was some of the language:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research

“If you look at the more genuinely Welsh areas, especially the Welsh-speaking ones, they did not want to leave the EU,” Dorling told the Sunday Times. “Wales was made to look like a Brexit-supporting nation by its English settlers.”

I wonder what The Guardian would say about any analysis of UK voting patterns (in general elections, as well as referenda) that called areas with huge numbers of blacks and browns etc “not genuinely English”? Or described the blacks, browns, Chinese etc as “settlers”…For that matter, what about any analysis of voting patterns in North London that referred to “its Jewish settlers”?

A few more tweets

The real problem here was that direct populist democracy, i.e. the 2016 Referendum, was grafted onto the longstanding system of representative democracy (elected MPs, political parties, Parliament). It’s like a train trying to run on lines of the wrong gauge. Or to put it another way, trying to graft a pear to an apple.

Worth reading

http://altrightnotright.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AltRight-NotRight171130.compressed.pdf

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

If Food Supplies Are Held Up Because of Brexit, The Conservatives Are Toast

18 Comments

The failure of the so-called “political class”, aka Westminster Bubblers, is manifest more clearly every day. We now know, if we did not already know, that the government of this country is in the hands of incompetent chancers, that the Opposition is in the hands of bad jokes, that the British Constitution is not a finely-tuned machine but a broken bit of clockwork, and that the Queen is about as much use as a human rubber stamp.

Brexit looms, but the fact is that now it either will not happen at all or will happen only in some very vague way (Brexit In Name Only). The only way that it can now happen as a real thing is if Boris Johnson, for reasons of blatant self-interest, manages to get it over the line, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

In the law, a saying was always “justice delayed is justice denied”. Apply that to the 2016 Referendum.

 

Now no-one expected that the UK would leave the EU the very next day. There are processes, procedures, timetables etc. However, the British Government, or what passes for it, should have within a short space of time triggered the Article 50 process, which (under the Lisbon Treaty) gives a state wishing to exit the EU two years in which to complete the leave process. In fact, Theresa May did not even send the triggering letter for nearly a year after the 2016 Referendum; she then asked for extension of time when the process should already have been completed.

Had the 2-year process (it can be less— 1 year, 18 months, whatever) been started soon after the Referendum result, the whole Brexit process would have been finished by the Autumn of 2018 at the latest. Now here we are, more than a year later, and with no obvious closure in sight.

I always said, right from the start, that a huge campaign would be waged by the international conspiracy to keep the UK in or tied to the EU. The EU is a major building-block of the New World Order strategy. The UK is a major building-block of the EU. You get my meaning.

I favour the UK getting out of the EU, I favour Brexit, but the Brexit process has been so criminally mishandled that it is hard to avoid the conclusion that that mishandling was done deliberately.

Whatever the truth of all that, the fact is that the sheer duration of this whole process, which has now gone on for over three years, has not only delayed democratic decision from being implemented, but has denied democracy itself. Now it is said by the Remain partisans that it is so long since the 2016 Referendum that huge numbers of people have changed their minds or even just died, and so it is bizarre to implement the Referendum decision.

That view is not without force: the process has dragged on. People may well have a different view now, but that is in part why the process should have been expedited and handled properly. If a general election were called and held and if then the results were delayed in being implemented for 3 or 4 years, I daresay that many people would start to say “I have changed my mind!”…

So here we are, still in a state of uncertainty. I cannot say whether the UK will leave or (in the Remainers’ propagandistic “transformational vocabulary”) “crash out” of the EU “without a deal”, i.e. on basic WTO terms, or whether some “deal” not very dissimilar to Theresa May’s one(s) will be accepted both by the person presently posing as Prime Minister and by the UK Parliament. It is an open question as I write.

What about the next election?

It now appears that any general election will not be called until October (assuming that Parliament is not recalled until October) and so may not happen until November, or even later.

Boris Johnson wanted to make the next general election all about Brexit. That way, fervent pro-Brexit voters would join with those who would vote Conservative-label whatever, giving the Conservative Party a Commons majority fuelled by Brexit anger. That has now been denied to him.

As time goes by, the inadequacies so obvious in Boris-Idiot will become ever more apparent. That is a major reason why Boris needs a swift election. Time is not on his side, in my opinion.

At present, most of the opinion polls put the Conservatives well in the lead, by 3, 5, 10, even 14 points over Labour. Neither the LibDems nor Brexit Party are at 25% in the polls, though a recent outlying poll had the LibDems close to 20%. A national average below 25% will not change political history.

In 2005, the LibDems got 22%, then increased that to 23% in 2010. In 2015, the LibDem vote declined to 7.9%, and in 2017 to 7.4%, but the LibDems’ propensity to embed themselves in particular seats meant that they retained 8 seats in 2015 and (by reason of Britain’s mad and unfair FPTP voting system) won a total of 12 seats in 2017.

At present, the Conservatives are polling generally above 30%, in one outlier at 35%. Labour is in the doldrums, somewhere in the 23%-29% range. That is very poor, bearing in mind the overall situation.

Present polling would place the Conservatives in Commons-majority territory, though the size of that majority could be anywhere from single figures to triple figures.

The Jews have been on Corbyn’s back for years, and he has (perhaps typically) chosen to ignore the threat from them rather than take the war to them. So he has chosen (along with John McDonnell) to parrot “holocaust” nonsense and the like (eg on officially-marked “holocaust” days), rather than fight the lies and fakery of the whole “holocaust” scenario and mega-scam. Meanwhile, Tom Watson, Corbyn’s supposed deputy, someone completely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has chosen this crucial time, of all times, to highlight yet more “Labour antisemitism” propaganda!

In other words, Labour remains a house divided and in fact divided in more ways than one. That does not attract voters. Also unattractive to much of the electorate is the fact that so many Labour MPs now are blacks and browns. The Labour core vote now is really the black-brown part of the population, together with public service workers (notably NHS) and others paid or supported via State monies of one kind or another.

The white British voters are mostly not voting Labour now: the Scottish ones mostly vote SNP and Conservative (about 70% in all), whereas the English are voting primarily Conservative (42.4% in UK in 2017, but that figure disguises a higher percentage in England itself). It is not that voters generally like or respect the Conservatives, but that Labour is a complete turn-off for many. A vote not for, but against…

Labour however has some good cards to play in terms of policy: rail nationalization, utilities regulation, rights of tenants and employees. It is just that it is not being allowed by the pro-Conservative/pro-Israel msm from putting that message effectively to most voters. There is also the point that, despite the complete unfitness of Boris Johnson for public office, his age and vigour (albeit misdirected vigour) helps him vis-a-vis Corbyn, who is presented in the msm as old and (by implication) useless.

I do not see Labour as coming back, in electoral terms, in most of England and Wales outside London and the West Midlands/Northern rustbelts. Could anything change that? There is one thing. Breakdown of public order and/or resupply of basic goods.

The Yellowhammer report, if accurate, indicates the possibility of shortages of fuel, medicines, even fresh food, if the UK leaves the UK without a “deal” of some kind. If that were to happen, then people would rapidly turn, not to Labour, as such, but against the Conservative government.

There are other nuances: Brexit Party has deflated from its stellar start, and the Conservatives have rejected an electoral pact, but if the UK does not fully leave the EU in reality, Brexit Party, like Antaeus, would contact its native earth and be reinvigorated. That would cut into the Conservative vote. On 15%, Brexit Party weakens, but not mortally, the Conservatives’ chances; on anything over 20%, Brexit Party would cull dozens if not hundreds of Conservative MPs even if Brexit Party itself were to win few seats.

Another Con Coalition?

Jo Swinson, entirely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has now said that she would never “work with” Corbyn (because of “anti-Semitism”, she says; but she is completely pro-finance capitalism anyway). That would seem to rule out a coalition or arrangement with Labour (so long as Corbyn heads it); it does not rule out a coalition with the Conservatives.

Conclusion

I should say that, at this stage, despite most polls showing the Conservatives many points ahead of Labour, the next general election is quite open. It is unlikely that Labour can win a Commons majority, but it is just about possible that, if chaos or the appearance of chaos soon rules, Labour could, if largest party, come to an arrangement with the SNP and smaller parties (Plaid, Greens, some Northern Irish) to form a minority government.

A Boris Johnson government with a real majority would be a catastrophe. You might as well relocate the UK government to Tel Aviv.

Much depends on whether Boris Johnson makes major mistakes between now and then. Apart from that, the election may well be dependent more than usually upon…events.

Notes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7458401/Labour-Leave-voters-switch-Nigel-Farages-Brexit-Party-vote-Tories.html

 

Update, 14 September 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/13/criminal-gangs-will-cash-in-on-no-deal-brexit-police-warn

Update, 15 September 2019

The opinion polls are all over the place: Opinium just published this poll:

…which would give the “Conservatives” a Commons majority of as much as 92.

On the other hand, ComRes has published this (see below), which might see Labour as the largest party in the Commons (265 seats as against the Conservatives’ 261) but about 61 seats short of a majority, in which case the only way in which Corbyn could rule would be via an arrangement with the SNP (Jo Swinson having already ruled out the LibDems, who on this showing might have 45 MPs), with Plaid Cymru, Green and Irish MPs in the mix. What would the SNP want as an inducement? Probably more funding for Scotland, and the right to call another Independence referendum whenever they like. I imagine that the Kremlin will be taking a keen interest, in view of, inter alia, the nuclear submarine bases in Scotland.

Update, 22 September 2019

The two latest polls indicate the political uncertainty about: the YouGov poll might mean a Conservative plurality in the Commons, but no majority (perhaps about 6 short of a majority, so not so different to the present situation); the Opinium poll, in a general election, would give the Conservatives a Commons majority of around 156!

Enthusiasm lacking at the 2019 Conservative Party Conference!

Brexit, elections, immigration, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

The EU Is On The Way Out

12 Comments

Introduction

My attention was caught by this tweet [below], posted by the political scientist Matthew Goodwin (who used to block me on Twitter, I think, but we’ll say no more about that for now).

In Germany, the economy is contracting. For the first time (as far as I know) since 1945, Germany is doing worse economically than the present Eurozone states as a whole are doing (and they are not doing well either). In Italy, the League (formerly Northern League) has a plurality of support. Italy is now actively standing against the attempt of the international conspiracy to flood Europe with blacks and browns.

Discussion

A few years ago, it seemed possible that the EU was going to collapse politically:

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Now, that seems less likely, at least in the short term and on the surface, if only because the System parties and politicians across Europe are hunkering down to protect “their” project (the EU-superstate NWO/ZOG project) out of which those parties and individuals have done so well for themselves. In addition, most of the insurgent parties are at present trying to destroy the EU from within, or to alter it radically, rather than pushing for their home states to exit the EU.

Britain is a major part of the EU not only because of its economic strength (even now), but also because the UK is the ideological, attitudinal, military halfway house between the mainland of Europe and the USA.

If Britain leaves the EU on WTO terms, the economic damage to the UK will be real, but do not underestimate the damage to the EU itself. The EU project is on a knife-edge both politically and economically. Brexit might well push the EU over the edge, especially now that the world economy as a whole is slowing. The EU may not “officially” fall to pieces for a while, but in reality it is like a tree, the trunk of which has been cut through, but which has not yet crashed to the ground.

Conclusion

We are looking at the resurgence, not far down the line, of the core peoples of Europe. I am not talking about “civil war” as experienced by people in recent decades or centuries. We are looking at culture war, socio-economic war, race war, religious war, all tied up together, entangled. This may continue for decades once it starts. Out of it may emerge, in the end, a society of a different kind altogether. God mote it be!

Afterthought

As far as the UK domestic political situation is concerned, we see attempts within the pathetic and incompetent British “political class” to stop “no-deal” Brexit. If one or other such attempt succeeds, then the major System parties are toast, first and foremost the Conservative Party. Brexit Party will challenge all Conservative MPs at the next, perhaps very soon, general election. That must unseat many of them, perhaps most of them. A Conservative Party of little more than 100 MPs is now a realistic possibility. As to Labour, its core vote now cannot be much higher than 25%. Brexit Party may not get more than a few dozen MPs in the short term, but it has the possibility of changing the face of British politics forever by weakening and perhaps destroying the two main System parties, now seen as colossi on legs of straw.

Notes

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7365809/PETER-OBORNE-Red-lights-flashing-economic-hurricane-coming-scared.html

Update, 10 June 2020

Well, now we know that there was a General Election (in December 2019). In that campaign, Nigel Farage stabbed his own party, Brexit Party, in the back, by standing down all Brexit Party candidates who were standing against Conservative candidates. This all but guaranteed a Conservative Party victory.

It now seems even less likely than before that the UK will leave the EU in reality. We have the much-discussed BRINO, Brexit In Name Only, maybe for years, in most respects. However, we now have an unexpected aspect: Coronavirus. This, or rather the panicky shutdown of several countries’ economies by their own governments, has placed the EU in even more of a pickle. Watch this space.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, elections, immigration, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

We May Be On The Brink Of Political Disintegration

4 Comments

In the Notes, below this article, is the text of a Guardian piece by the well-known expert on the British Constitution, Vernon Bogdanor. Worth reading, but what struck me apart from its detail was that one possibility mooted as a way out of the Brexit impasse is a so-called “government of national unity headed by someone such as Keir Starmer or Yvette Cooper“. YVETTE COOPER?! You mean (he means) Yvette Cooper the expenses cheat and greedy careerist freeloader? Yvette Cooper the “refugees welcome” hypocrite, who thinks that British people should all have to put up with culturally-backward hordes invading their country, their neighbourhoods, even their own homes? (Needless to say, Yvette Cooper and her equally greedy, cheating, freeloading husband, Ed Balls, have somehow avoided sharing their own comfortable large home(s) with the migrant-invaders). Yvette Cooper, the total doormat for the Jewish-Zionist lobby?

That sounds to me more like a government of national disunity!

In fact, though it may be largely factually correct, the Guardian piece shows to what extent the mainly London-based chattering classes and msm milieux are out of tune and in fact completely out of touch with what I take to be the majority of the population.

A “government of national unity”? In order to deal with a crisis entirely inflicted upon the people by the political class and more particularly the Conservative Party? It is not so much about Brexit itself as about the way in which persons governing despite being unfit to govern have criminally mishandled Brexit. I myself favoured Leave and Brexit in 2016, and still do, but (in the immortal words of Johnny Mercer MP), this is “a shitshow” and most of it has been and is a Conservative Party shitshow.

I expect that many will see my view as unnecessarily apocalyptic. I disagree. Many opinion polls have shown how very disenchanted the voters really are, to the point where many are willing to vote for Brexit Party, a party which, apart from the UK leaving the EU, has no policies at all. That willingness, to vote for a new party without any real policies (even in outline) also supports my view that voters at present are voting against the parties they oppose, rather than for parties they support.

There is no social national party for people to support (obviously I do not bother to examine again the bad-joke “parties” of recent years: Britain First, For Britain, the rumps of the old NF and BNP etc). UKIP too, which —as I predicted since 2015— is now so “yesterday” that I almost forgot to include it. There is a political vacuum.

As it is, the voters are left, at present, with the LibLabCon parties, i.e. the System parties, and the Brexit Party. Anyone (meaning anyone white and English, or Welsh, the Scots having the faux-“nationalist” SNP) and discontented with the way the UK is, can only either refuse to participate or can vote Brexit Party as a protest (or vote of hate against the System parties).

How has it come to this, that instead of the UK leaving the EU in a fairly orderly fashion, the government and msm are now talking in terms of food shortages? This is unbelievable! Those responsible are mainly the ministers and MPs of the Conservative Party, who after all have been in power now for over 9 years, including of course the 3 years since the 2016 Referendum. It is they who have messed up the negotiations, they who have blithely said that everything will be all right, they who have been the Government. Not Labour, not the LibDems, not Brexit Party.

Now we come to Boris-idiot. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is, to me, no more acceptable or believable than food shortages as a result of Brexit. To me, he is not a legitimate Prime Minister of this country. He is totally unfit to be a prime minister of anywhere. He is only there because of the flaw in the UK’s constitutional arrangements, by which flaw a prime minister can resign without that prime minister’s successor having to call an immediate general election. In the case of Boris Johnson, he is also there because spineless Conservative Party MPs thought (I doubt rightly) that Boris-idiot was or is more “electable” than any of his opponents in the Conservative Party leadership contest, and so would give all Conservative Party MPs a better chance of electoral survival.

When you see Boris-idiot, you have to factor-in to everything that he says or writes that his primary and often only purpose is his own selfish interest.

Now we are told that Johnson is set on either leaving the EU on bare WTO terms or (if he can frighten the EU enough) getting a better “deal” than did the absurd bad-joke PM, Theresa May.

Boris-idiot’s calculation is very very obvious: if the EU makes even a slightly better offer, Boris “Tribune of the People” and “Conquering Hero” presents that to the House of Commons, which then either accepts it (so anointing Idiot as “great statesman” who would probably then win a general election if held fairly soon thereafter), or rejects it (so casting Idiot as “heroic but conspired against”).

On the other hand, if the EU refuses to make a better offer, Boris The Poundland Churchill can shake his fist at Brussels, take or try to take the UK out of the EU on WTO terms, and if that is blocked in the Commons, hold a general election, casting himself again as that “Tribune of the People” against Remainer (especially Labour, LibDem and SNP) MPs and Brussels eurocrats.

Whatever happens, keep eyes focussed on the fact that Boris Johnson is doing whatever he is doing for short-term political advantage. Having supported the fake “austerity” of his fellow part-Jews David Cameron-Levita and George Osborne, Boris Johnson now flashes the cash everywhere: NHS, police, whatever. Shallow 18th Century style largesse-politics.

Is Boris-Idiot correct in his calculations? Will be be borne back to power on a wave of anti-EU anger? I doubt it.

Let us say that there are food shortages (whether caused by Brexit, hold-ups at the ports, miscalculations by the large supermarket chains or panic-buying by the urban masses in the British cities). Who will be blamed? The EU? Perhaps, partly, at first. However, I believe that the people will also and in any event before long start to blame (and with reason) the “Conservative” government.

If the UK does not leave the EU on 31 October, then government remains paralyzed by its lack of a Parliamentary majority. If an election is then held, Brexit Party will stand in 650 constituencies and so enable the slaughter of dozens and even hundreds of Conservative MPs.

Boris Johnson is probably calculating that, if he can take the UK out of the EU on 31 October 2019, the voting public will see him (however ludicrous that may be to you and me) as a strong leader (when he is neither) who has kept to his word. He can then in effect call a general election and hope to win a Commons majority because either Brexit Party will fade away or not stand candidates, or will be sidelined by the electorate.

No doubt Johnson will hope that, like Pacific salmon who die after spawning, Brexit Party will expire, having reached its goal of a UK exit from the EU. Such a calculation may be misplaced. How Brexit Party would present itself if the UK really does leave, at least on paper, on 31 October, I am unsure. Perhaps by saying that the exit is not sure, not definite or that Brexit may possibly be reversed by an incoming government.

One thing is certain: Brexit is about more than Brexit and, that being so, Brexit Party itself, should its leader Farage so decide, could morph into a party of general faux-nationalist discontent. That sounds vague, but what is more vague than a party with neither policies nor ideology?

There is more going on than Brexit, of course. All the problems the UK has will still be there on 1 November: mass immigration (which will not stop after Brexit, far from it!), NHS decline, social security and housing defects and shortages, the increase in violent crime, social decadence and decline; and so on.

The msm and TV talking heads, the metro-“liberal” journalists, lawyers, media folk etc, all insulated by affluence, mostly London-centric, were shocked by the 2016 Referendum result, by the 2017 election results, by the immediate failure of their briefly-cherished “Change UK” pro-Jewish joke party, by Trump’s election too. In a word, these people are out-of-touch. Their experience of the years 2010-2019 is not the same as that of well over half the UK population.

My view is that a coming general election might produce a big shock again. The only thing preventing a landslide for a social-nationalist party is that, quite simply, no social national party exists.

In the no doubt upcoming 2019 or possibly early 2020 General Election, I believe that neither of the main System parties will do well. I believe that both the LibDems and Brexit Party could do well, if only as a reaction against the main two.

The two main System parties have both been losing not only loyal voters but their own raisons d’etre, and their heart.

Labour will keep the votes of the blacks and browns generally, as well as those of the public service workers and those dependent on State benefits. It may not keep the votes of those it has taken for granted for a century: the British (i.e. white) poorer people as such. They are now either voting with their feet (i.e. not voting) or voting desperately elsewhere. In 2005 or so, BNP; 2010-2015, UKIP. Now they vote, some of them, Brexit Party. I put the Labour vote as likely to be around 30%.

The Conservative Party cannot now appeal to Thatcherite-style “aspiration”. That was something real back in the 1980s. I remember sitting in a branch of Wheeler’s (fish restaurant) in Blackheath in 1986 or 1987. At the next table, a young plumber (the tables were not far apart and he was a little loud) and his girlfriend talking about his income, his house-purchase plans etc. Afterwards, my then girlfriend and I mused about the social changes then in train (a young tradesman and girlfriend eating at Wheeler’s and buying a house). Could that happen now? Perhaps, but it would be unusual, I think.

The Conservative vote nationally is now mainly that of the rich and affluent (nothing new there), which would be no more than 5% to (at most) 20% of the population. There are some older but not affluent people who still vote Conservative out of long habit, even against their own interests, but they are a dwindling stock. That is why the Conservative MPs backed Boris-idiot as their leader, because they hoped that this part-Jew public entertainer could jolly along enough unthinking voters to make up the numbers. All the same, I should not put the Conservative vote now much above 30%, and that might fall back to 20% if the UK experiences significant disruption or economic dislocation soon.

The LibDems may soon be able to corner the Remain vote in the South of England.

Brexit Party might just be the recipient of any further or renewed “roar of rage” from an electorate in pain. If that happens (meaning if Brexit Party gets at least 20% of the popular vote), then the Conservatives will soon be “an ex-party”, at least so far as government is concerned.

Many might say, so you get rid of a Conservative MP and put in a small-c conservative Brexit Party MP, what’s the difference? Well, it’s not that simple anyway (because LibDems and Labour might capture more Con seats than does Brexit Party), but the good thing is that many many evil Conservative Party MPs will be out of UK politics, many for good. Connections and career paths will be ruined. I don’t much like Champagne, but if that happened, I might make an exception. If the damage were great, I might even drink Bollinger instead of mere champagne-type such as Sekt.

A similar picture might emerge in the North as regards Labour (if Conservative voters vote Brexit Party to keep Labour out), but one thing at a time! The main thing is to cull the hundreds of Conservative Friends of Israel. And it could soon happen.

The way lies open, not far away, for social nationalism on a scale never before seen in the UK.

Notes

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/06/mps-thwart-boris-johnson-no-deal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Bogdanor

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Update, 23 December 2020

My analysis was right, but my prediction not right as far as the chances at an election of the Conservative Party were concerned. I failed to foresee that con-man Nigel Farage would stab his own candidates and Brexit Party members in the back, and stand down virtually all Brexit Party 2019 General Election candidates, thus gifting the Conservative Party and Boris-idiot an 80-seat Commons majority.

Alt-Right, animal welfare, Boris Johnson, Brexit, by-elections, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

After Brecon and Radnorshire, What Now For Brexit Party and the Conservatives?

1 Comment

My original blog post (with updates to 2 August 2019) about the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/06/21/brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-2019/

The result of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election of 1 August 2019

  • LibDems 13,826 votes (43.5%)
  • Conservatives 12,401 (39%)
  • Brexit Party 3,331 (10.5%)
  • Labour Party 1,680 (5.3%)
  • Monster Raving Loony 334 (1%)
  • UKIP 242 (0.8%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

The LibDems won fairly decisively, but with a smaller majority than the betting might have been suggesting. I have posted several informative links below.

Why did the LibDems win, why did the Conservative Party not win?

For me, the most important aspect beyond the headline result is the fact that the Conservative ex-MP, Christopher Davies, would have won, perhaps even handsomely, were it not for the candidature of Brexit Party, which received 3,331 votes.

The LibDem majority over the Conservatives was only 1,425. In other words, had Brexit Party not been standing, the Conservatives would almost certainly have won, and probably by nearly 2,000 votes. The Brexit Party received a vote-share of only 10.5% (LibDems 43.5%, Conservatives 39%), but that was more than enough to sink the Conservative candidate.

The Labour vote has suffered a general decline in the constituency over the years (all-time high was 57.69% in 1964), but this was its lowest-ever vote-share (5.3%). I attribute that partly and perhaps mainly to tactical voting: Labour supporters voting against the Conservatives (mainly) in a situation where Labour had no real chance anyway (the Labour vote here has not exceeded 20% since 2001 (21.4%). However, the 5.3%, barely enough to retain the deposit, does tend to support my view that Labour is now the party of the blacks and browns, the public service workers and those mainly dependent on State benefits.

The Sky News Political Correspondent tweeted something interesting about the Labour vote in Brecon and Radnorshire, which had been in the 10%-18% range since 2005 and until this by-election’s collapse to 5.3%:

Brecon and Radnorshire is almost entirely white British in demographic terms (Powys, the county in which is situated the constituency, is said to be 99.3% white British). In white British areas, Labour increasingly has no chance. Labour scarcely speaks to or for white British people now. This has implications that go far beyond Brecon and Radnorshire.

The Conservatives and Brexit Party down the line

Brexit Party is one of two parties that emerged in 2019 despite having no real policies (the other being the pro-EU, pro-Remain, pro-Jewish lobby party, Change UK, which sputtered to a halt almost immediately and now scarcely exists).

There is no doubt that the early promise of Brexit Party has somewhat blunted since its great 2019 EU elections success. The recent Peterborough by-election was nearly won, but not quite, Brexit Party losing to Labour by a mere 683 votes. Now we have another, though less unexpected, disappointment. Nigel Farage and his large meetings held before both the EU elections and the Peterborough by-election built up a head of steam and a head of expectation, but so far that pressure has just tooted into the void, at least as far as Westminster is concerned.

The political landscape has just suffered an earthquake. Boris Johnson (aka, to me, “Boris-idiot”) is now, incredibly, Prime Minister (or Fool posing as “King for a Day”), having been put there by about 92,000 Conservative Party members (out of about 50 MILLION voters, in other words by about 1 out of every 500 or so eligible voters). He has “pledged” (for what little his pledges are worth) to leave the EU “deal or no deal” by 31 October 2019. If that seems about to happen, I am assuming that the anti-“no deal”/WTO MPs will block it and/or vote for a no-confidence motion. That might in turn cause Boris Johnson to trigger a general election.

Alternatively, the EU might offer Johnson a form of words that he can present to the Commons as a workable “deal” (in the now familiar vulgar terminology). The UK can then pretend to leave the EU but in reality stay in, or kick the can down the road by means of an extension, which Johnson himself seemed to find acceptable recently. The Commons might block the former, but probably not the latter.

An extension (as mooted) might last until 2021 or even 2022. In 2022, new electoral boundaries will be in place in the UK. MP numbers are set to be reduced from 650 to 600. Those changes will hit both Labour and the LibDems hard.

If the Conservatives can hang on until 2022, their chances of survival (as individual MPs and as a party of government) look better. In the meantime, Boris-idiot can go on posing as Prime Minister, and his Cabinet of Conservative Friends of Israel, enemies of the people, can (with the help of their Labour Friends of Israel accomplices) pass more repressive laws to destroy (real) “democracy” and (real) civil rights in the UK…

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That, at least, could have been the scenario had the Conservatives a majority or at least a working majority (reduced by Brecon and Radnorshire to 1 MP vote) and so able to continue as a government. As it is, whatever happens on 31 October, it cannot be long now before Labour moves a no-confidence motion. If not in November, then surely in December or early next year.

Brexit Party has not yet proven that it can win Westminster seats, but it has proven that it can prevent the Conservative Party winning. In Peterborough, the successful Labour Party candidate got 10,484 votes (30.9%). The Brexit Party got 9,801 votes (28.9%). The Conservative got 7,243 votes (21.4%). While it may be that not all of those who voted Brexit Party would, in lieu of that, have voted Conservative, most would have done; hardly any would have voted Labour, in my opinion anyway. It is clear that, without Brexit Party, the Conservatives would have won Peterborough. The same is true in Brecon and Radnorshire.

Boris Johnson may have shot Brexit Party’s fox by going all-out (supposedly) for a “no deal”/WTO Brexit if the EU does not play ball, but he has not killed that fox, just wounded it. If the UK leaves on a “no deal”/WTO basis, then Brexit Party probably will deflate to nothing, though it may reinvent itself even then. However, it seems unlikely that the majority of MPs of all parties will not block such a departure. If that happens, then Boris Johnson, however much he tries to play the Leave “tribune of the people”, will be seen by Leavers as a waste of space, “all hat and no cattle”. In that scenario, the anger of the Leave-preferring voters will devolve upon both Remain MPs and Boris-idiot. Brexit Party will then, like Antaeus treading on his native earth, be revived and take on new strength.

What Boris Johnson and the Conservatives would like is for Brexit Party to just disappear, thus leaving the Conservatives to trample all over the hopelessly-split Labour Party and the LibDems. What is more likely is that the UK will not leave the EU on any real basis by the beginning of November. Brexit Party will thus put up 650 MPs and the Conservative Party will be slaughtered. Most hard-core Leavers will vote Brexit Party, most hard-core Remainers (especially in the South) will switch to the LibDems. For Boris Johnson and the Conservatives, a two-front war. Apart from Brexit issues, anyone who believes in the Welfare State, in decent public services, in animal welfare, will not vote Conservative. Anyone hostile to Jewish Zionism, likewise.

The Brexit Party may only get 10%-20%, so say 15%, nationwide, but that alone all but destroys any hope for a majority Conservative government. My own efforts at working it out using Electoral Calculus [see Notes, below] indicate Conservative Party as largest party in Commons, but without a majority and quite possibly worse off than now.

Much depends on the LibDem vote. At present, the opinion polls show intended LibDem vote somewhere in the 15%-25% range, with latest educated guess (via Ipsos/MORI) at 20%.

That might give a Conservative majority of as much as 74. However, even if that poll is accurate, it is unlikely that the Conservatives will actually maintain a lead of 10 points over Labour. If Labour were able to achieve 30% instead of 24%, which is well within the parameters of reasonable possibility, then the Conservative Party would be 20 MPs short of a majority, i.e. worse off than now.

There again, even if Labour were still on 24%, but if Brexit Party could reach to 15% at the expense of the Conservatives on 29%, the Conservatives would be no less than 57 MPs short of a majority.

On the other hand, If Brexit Party can get 20%, LibDems 20%, Labour 25% and Conservatives 30%, the Conservatives would be about 35 MPs short of a majority.

It is a game one can play for hours.

Conclusions

The LibDems are back in the game, if only by default. They have much of the Remain vote, they have a (notionally) fresh and energetic leader, they have the votes of those disliking the other two main System parties as well as those of persons wishing to vote tactically. They have at least the possibility of a 50-seat bloc (again) in the Commons.

Brexit Party is not looking good as a potential party of government but it is looking effective as a way of blocking Conservative Party ambitions. A general election resulting in 30% Con, 30% Lab, 20% LibDem, 15% Brexit Party and 5% Green comes out with Labour as largest party, but 46 MPs short of majority, the Conservatives not far behind and the LibDems with perhaps about 50 MPs. On that basis, the LibDems could, as in 2010, be once again the kingmakers. Plus ca change…

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powys

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/voters-head-to-the-polls-for-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-live-a4202956.html

https://news.sky.com/story/liberal-democrats-win-brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-as-johnson-suffers-first-defeat-as-pm-11775356

https://www.greekmythology.com/Myths/Gigantes/Antaeus/antaeus.html

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Update, 4 August 2019

Worth reading:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/04/boris-johnson-armageddon-clock-what-is-it-counting-down-to

Andrew Rawnsley predicting the demise, quite soon, of both Boris-idiot and the Conservative government (and party):

“As he [Boris-idiot] points the country at the cliff edge and depresses the accelerator, does prime minister Johnson have any idea where this will end? It is a mistake to think that he does. No one knows what he is really up to, including himself. In one breath, he tells us that this is “do or die”; in another, he sets the odds on a no-deal Brexit at “a million to one”;

“He [Boris-idiot] has to know that there is a strong possibility that it will mean an autumn general election. The least credible message from Number 10 is that it is not contemplating this outcome”;

“Tory strategy for winning an election makes some very big and risky assumptions. One is that the gains harvested by the Conservatives at the expense of Labour among Leave-supporting voters will outweigh Tory losses in Remain-supporting constituencies. Nearly every top Lib Dem target is a Conservative seat, while Scottish Nationalists are hoping to scalp Tory MPs north of the border. The other perilous assumption is that Nigel Farage’s party will fade away or fold up. The leader of the Brexit party is enjoying being the object of renewed attention and displays no signs of wanting to retire again. He declares that he does not trust the prime minister and he has a bitter history of mutual loathing with Number 10’s chief strategist, Dominic Cummings.”

“One lesson from the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that the Brexit party doesn’t have to do all that well – it polled barely a double-digit share on Thursday – to hurt the Tories. If the Conservatives could have added the Brexit party vote and that of Ukip to their tally, they would have held the seat with just over half the vote, rather than narrowly lose it to the Lib Dems. They’d hope to put a harder squeeze on the Brexit party in a general election, but couldn’t be absolutely confident. All the hazards of this strategy will be multiplied many times over if an election takes place after 31 October. In one scenario, we would still be in the EU, breaking the Tory leader’s “absolute commitment” to his party that Britain will be out “under any circumstances” and hugely boosting the Faragists.”

“In the alternative scenario, Britain has tumbled out of the EU without an agreement. That is no longer a threat or a promise. The countdown has reached zero and no deal is a reality. Even in the less chilling versions of a crash-out Brexit – the ones that don’t involve supermarket shelves being stripped bare by panic-buying and children dying for lack of life-critical medicines – I wouldn’t want to be a prime minister trying to make a case for his re-election when the country has just suffered a big economic shock and the currency is collapsing.”

“My suspicion is that the Armageddon Clock isn’t really there to count down the seconds to Brexit day. It is there to remind Boris Johnson how long he has left before it becomes too late to avoid his own doomsday.“

Of course, I myself have made, in the above and previous blog posts, similar points to those now made by Andrew Rawnsley. He, however, has the inside contacts (and public profile) which I do not have. I, perforce, have to use simply my own knowledge and powers of reason (also, I am doing this unpaid, pro bono publico!)

I should say that there is little incentive for the Brexit Party to form a pact with the Conservatives unless the Conservatives in effect gift Brexit Party at least 50 winnable seats in return for Brexit Party standing down in the other 600. Such a pact might backfire for the Conservatives in that it would

  1. deprive the Conservatives of a number of seats which, even with Brexit Party standing, the Conservatives themselves might win; and
  2. create a bloc of up to 50 “fourth party” Westminster MPs for the first time, so
  3. making Brexit Party far more electorally credible in subsequent elections.

Meanwhile…

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mps-beg-brexit-party-candidates-not-to-stand-in-their-constituencies-amid-fears-of-split-vote-a4205031.html

If Brexit Party candidates give up their candidature in seats where the Conservative candidates might lose if there is a Brexit Party candidate, then not only has the Brexit Party given up what might be good chances of winning in those seats, but it has restricted itself to standing only in seats where it has, arguably, little chance of winning.

In other words, a one-way electoral pact with the Conservatives almost wipes out Brexit Party’s reason for existing. It might confirm as MPs a few Conservative Eurosceptics, but no political earthquake is going to happen just because of that. The better strategy is to fight all 650 seats and see what happens. If it should be that 200+ Conservative MPs lose their seats, then good.

Update, 23 June 2020

My analysis was not too bad (as good that of Andrew Rawnsley, anyway), but nexpected events happened, as they often do: as we now know, duing the General Election campaign of December 2019, Nigel Farage, for whatever reason, decided to stand down all his Brexit Party candidates standing in Conservative-held seats. That killed Brexit Party stone dead and ensured a Conservative Party victory by default. 2017 Labour voters did not, most of them, vote Conservative, but some did, in some seats. A relative few defected to the LibDems or what was left of Brexit Party, but almost as many as all of those simply decided not to vote.

Result: a Conservative Party majority of about 80.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, by-elections, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Could the LibDems Win A General Election in 2019-2020?

2 Comments

Background

Nearly eight years ago, when I still had a Twitter account (read “before the Jew-Zionists prevailed upon Twitter to expel me”), I tweeted that the LibDems were finished. At that time, around 2011, the height of the Con Coalition, the LibDem careerists were signing up to pretty much everything required of them by the misnamed “Conservatives”. In fact, even now in 2019, new tales come to light about how totally supine the LibDems in coalition were: recently, for example, it was revealed that the LibDems agreed to screw down harder on the sick and disabled in return for a 5p tax on plastic shopping bags.

The public were so disgusted by the LibDems 2010-2015 that the LibDem support and vote in the country hit almost rock-bottom in 2015. The 2010 general election had seen so-called “Cleggmania” and a popular vote of 23%, resulting in 57 House of Commons seats. In fact, that 23% was only 1 point above the level achieved in 2005 under the LibDems’ former (1999-2006) leader, Charles Kennedy; the LibDems in 2010 had 5 fewer seats than they had in 2005.

Naturally, the UK’s unfair First Past The Post [FPTP] political system left the LibDems with far fewer Commons seats than they “deserved” by reference to their popular vote. 23% of the 2010 popular vote “should” have given the LibDems about 150 MPs, not 57.

The 2010 hung Parliament result gave the LibDems their chance to demand proportional representation, instead of which their leadership (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander and David Laws, mainly) accepted from the Conservative Party leader, David Cameron-Levita, the mere promise of a referendum on Alternative Vote [AV], a halfway house between FPTP voting and proportional representation [PR].

Gordon Brown, on behalf of Labour, the then Prime Minister, was willing to offer the LibDems immediate AV, via a new law to be passed by Labour and LibDem MPs, but the LibDems instead (and to my mind inexplicably) chose the Conservative offer of a mere referendum on AV over the Labour offer of immediate AV. When they did that, it was already clear that the LibDems (so called “Orange Book” LibDems, meaning pro-finance capitalist LibDems) much preferred to make common cause with the Conservatives.

This “Orange Book” “liberalism” underpinned what the LibDems did in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015. The “Orange Book” itself took the LibDems far from the positions of the old Liberal Party and even from those of the LibDem party itself during the time when it was in the hands of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy.

The authors of the Orange Book favoured socio-political positions not far from those of leading members of the Conservative Party post-2000: effectively anti-Welfare State, pro-business, socially-judgmental, favouring so-called “choice” etc.

It is striking how many of the Orange Book authors have, in the years since its publication, been hit by scandal:

  • David Laws: found to have cheated on his Parliamentary expenses to the tune of about £40,000; many thought him fortunate not to have been prosecuted for fraud;
  • Chris Huhne: prosecuted and imprisoned for the very silly crime of perversion of the course of justice relating to a speeding offence [cf. Fiona Onasanya];
  • Mark Oaten, exposed as a coprophiliac and user of “rent boys”; since when Oaten has represented the International Fur Trade Federation, a largely Jewish body despised by animal-lovers worldwide. Oaten was also a supporter of fox-hunting.

“Only” three, but three out of only nine LibDems who wrote the Orange Book (Oaten admitted that in fact his research assistant had written his, Oaten’s, designated chapter, and that he, Oaten, had not even read that chapter, let alone the rest of the book). Of the other LibDems involved, Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg both lost their Commons seats in 2015 and 2017 respectively, gratefully then accepting lucrative directorships from transnational finance-capitalist companies.

The LibDem fortunes since the days of the Con Coalition

The LibDem popular vote crashed in 2015, sliding from its 2010 level of 23% to only 7.9%. MP numbers were slashed from 57 to 8.

In 2017, the LibDem popular vote slumped further, to 7.4%, though by the quirk of the FPTP voting system combined with the way boundaries are drawn, the LibDems actually managed to increase the number of LibDem MPs from 8 in 2015 to 12 in 2017.

The present situation

Nick Clegg took the Zuckerberg shilling (or should that be million?) and became an apologist for Facebook. He was replaced by Tim Farron, someone who was from an earlier, Nonconformist tradition within the LibDems and their ancestor-party, the Liberals. For example, “Farron was one of only two Liberal Democrat MPs to vote against the under-occupancy penalty (also known as the bedroom tax) in 2012.” [Wikipedia]. Farron was in the anti-Orange Book Beveridge Group [see Notes, below].

In 2017, Farron in turn was replaced by another Orange Book author, Vince Cable. Then, in 2019, Jo Swinson took the reins. She, though very much of the Orange Book persuasion, is more identified publicly with “socially liberal” than with “fiscally conservative” positions. Jo Swinson held the positions of PPS, and then Business Minister, during the Con Coalition period, but has managed to escape too great an identification with the social policies of the Coalition. Surprising, really, in that she

  • “Almost always voted for reducing housing benefit for social tenants deemed to have excess bedrooms (which Labour describe as the “bedroom tax”)”;
  • “Consistently voted against raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices”;
  • “Consistently voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability”;
  • “Consistently voted for making local councils responsible for helping those in financial need afford their council tax and reducing the amount spent on such support”;
  • “Almost always voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits“;
  • “Almost always voted for reducing the rate of corporation tax“

[see: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11971/jo_swinson/east_dunbartonshire/votes]

I have to say that I have always seen Jo Swinson as a ghastly bitch, who, like her husband (Duncan Hames, also a LibDem MP from, in his case only, 2010 to 2015) has been mainly a careerist type in politics; in Jo Swinson’s case, her brief period in provincial commerce before 2005 can only be seen as underwhelming, at best.

My view of Jo Swinson is, admittedly, mainly a personal impression based on what I have seen on TV etc. Her voting record on domestic UK issues must give pause, though, to those who see her as enlightened, socially compassionate etc.

Jo Swinson is a LibDem leader who does not frighten the Conservative horses. That could be key. In 2017, there were, if memory serves, 35 seats where the LibDems were in close 2nd place; there were many others where the LibDem was in close 3rd place. Most of those are Conservative-held seats. The implication is clear: if Brexit Party weakens an already-flagging Conservative vote, scores of (mainly) Conservative seats could fall, many to the LibDems. The Brexit Party is a major factor here.

Then we have the Remain vote. About 48% of the UK, famously, voted Remain. All three System parties were split in the 2016 Referendum, but the LibDems less so than the other two. As a party, the Conservative Party is now seen as basically Leave; the Labour Party is seen as sitting on the fence. That leaves the LibDems as the sole unalloyed Remain party. How that translates into votes and then into seats is another question. For one thing, people are likely to vote in any 2019/2020 general election on various issues, not only Brexit. However, Brexit is probably the one leading issue at time of writing.

The British electoral system is a bad joke. We know that a simple matter such as how the boundaries are drawn can alter everything:

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In 2022, new boundaries will come into effect, along with the reduction of MP numbers to 600 (from the present 650). The Conservatives will be far less affected than Labour and the LibDems. It has been suggested that the LibDems will be all but wiped out by those changes. Perhaps, but any 2022 or later general election is still at least 2-3 years away. We are looking at the very strong likelihood of a general election within maybe only 2-3 months or so. The Conservatives would like to wait longer, but how can they, when they have a majority of one or none?

Boundaries and other factors make the popular vote indeterminative. In 2005, Labour’s popular vote was 35.2%, and the Conservative vote was not far behind (32.4%), yet Labour ended up with 355 MPs, while the Conservatives won only 198!

If the LibDems can gather to their banner the bulk of the votes of those for whom the number one issue is Brexit and for whom Remain is the only way to go, and then add those votes to the LibDem core support (which may be as low as 7%), then it is not impossible to conceive of the idea of the LibDems under Jo Swinson getting a vote at least as high as Charles Kennedy’s 22% or Nick Clegg’s 23%, and possibly even higher. As against that, many voters will not support the LibDems under any circumstances, either because the party is pro-EU Remain, or because it is seen as weak on immigration (but are the other two System parties any better?) or because most voters remember the LibDems as doormats for the Conservatives during 2010-2015.

In order to form the largest bloc in the House of Commons, the LibDems would have to get a popular vote in the region of 35% or 34%, both Lab and Con getting below 30%. Even then, the LibDems would be or might be at least 100 seats short of a majority.

As I have blogged previously, I do not think in terms of a LibDem surge, but more a concatenation of circumstances —LibDems as sole Remain party, weakening of Conservative vote because of Brexit Party, disenchantment with Labour— drawing votes away from the other parties and so to the LibDems. LibDems as largest Commons bloc? Unlikely but, now, not totally impossible.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Orange_Book:_Reclaiming_Liberalism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Oaten#Scandal_and_resignation

https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Susan_Kramer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8508098/David-Laws-broke-the-rules-and-must-pay-a-price.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Laws

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Expenses_claims

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Criminal_conviction

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Farron

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beveridge_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Cable

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Swinson

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 13 September 2019

Well…

So there it is: Jo Swinson could never work with (be in coalition with? proffer “confidence and supply” to?) Jeremy Corbyn and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

It’s against her “principles” to support any criticism of Jews or Israel, it seems. Pity that her principles did not extend to refusing to work with evil part-Jew manipulators such as George Osborne and David Cameron-Levita. She and most of the LibDem MPs voted for all or most of the measures which for a decade have demonized, impoverished and actually killed sick, disabled and poor people in the UK via the “welfare” “reforms” of evil part-Jap Iain Dunce Duncan Smith and the Jew “lord” Freud (etc).

I was right about Jo Swinson. My instinct told me that she is an evil bitch. I was right.

https://twitter.com/misslucyp/status/1172941119287648256?s=20

Update, 17 September 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/16/lib-dems-would-need-gargantuan-swing-hit-200-seat-target/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Some LibDems are actually saying that the LDs could get hundreds of MPs in the upcoming general election! Proof positive of their disconnection from reality. People are mostly going to vote LibDem (if at all) only as a way of hitting out at the more major parties. There is no “LibDem surge” as such, but (as I have repeatedly blogged) there is a desire on the part of many Remain partisans to vote against the Conservative Party (mainly).

We have been here before, as when pathetic David Steel urged his rank and file to “prepare for government” (in 1981): http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=42

I imagine that the LibDems will pick up some seats, maybe even 50, but what will prevent Jo Swinson getting 200 or becoming PM is that no-one really wants a LibDem government (well, about a tenth of the voters might…), but many more will vote LibDem negatively, to block other parties or to signal pro-EU Remain support.

Update, 8 October 2019

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 24 October 2019

https://twitter.com/jameshirst91/status/1187268475477213185?s=20

Update, 27 October 2019

Well, my prediction that the LibDems want another “Con Coalition” becomes firmer daily; the Labour reaction is scalding (or should that be “scalded?):

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1188389011917852674?s=20

https://twitter.com/MikeH_PR/status/1188347126352437248?s=20

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/27/bid-libdems-snp-december-9-election-rejected-stunt-tories-labour/

Update, 20 March 2020

Well, my analysis in the above article was right, but the basic facts changed in that Brexit Party candidates standing in Conservative Party-held seats were ordered by their duplicitous leader, Farage, to stand down. That order applied to all Conservative-held seats, even those held by the most committed pro-EU MPs!

That decision by Farage, which betrayed his own candidates and supporters, meant that dozens of pre-election Conservative Party MPs kept their seats when, had Brexit Party stood candidates, they would have lost them to the LibDems.

The LibDems were on track to win several dozen MPs until Brexit Party self-destructed.

Jo Swinson’s decision to push for a General Election, and Corbyn’s silly willingness to be shamed into going along with that, led directly to the victory of the Conservative Party at the 2019 General Election. It led directly to Boris Johnson, a part-Jew, part-Turk public entertainer, as Prime Minister. Disastrous.

My more recent pre-General Election blogging guessed the LibDem result almost exactly. I predicted that the LibDems would get fewer than 10 seats. They got 11. So nearly right, anyway.

As for Jo Swinson, her doormatting for the Jewish lobby paid off, in that she was made a fake “baroness” and elevated to the House of Lords once she lost her Commons seat.

Alt-Right, Boris Johnson, Brexit, elections, historical, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

Can The Conservatives Win A General Election? (or are they doomed?)

1 Comment

We are where we are, in the now-ubiquitous phrase. The prime-ministerial chair once occupied by the likes of Pitt, the 1st Duke of Wellington, Gladstone, Lloyd George, Churchill, Attlee, Harold Wilson, Margaret Thatcher etc is now occupied by a public entertainer of mixed ethnic and cultural origins, born in New York City, brought up partly in the USA and Belgium, and until recently a dual passport-holder. A rootless cosmopolitan playing out a performance as an “upper-class” “Englishman” caricature. Am-dram Churchill. Poundland Churchill.

Boris Johnson, Boris-idiot, Boris the clown. More to the immediate point, Boris without a majority, soon. As a child of eight years, Boris Johnson wanted to be “world king” and has for decades schemed and cheated and lied in order to get to the nearest position (outside the monarch’s own ambit) that England allows: the rank of Prime Minister. However, he has not become “King of the World”, but “King for a Day”, the traditional role, in the Revels, of the Jester or Fool (“…for who but a Fool would be King for a Day?”).

The Conservative Party elected Boris Johnson its leader. Conservative MPs voted to reduce the field to two. Conservative Party members, some 140,000 of them, voted and 66% of them, about 92,000, preferred Boris Johnson. It is not my purpose of this article to rail more than en passant against the absurdity that allows a prime minister to resign and for her successor to be, in effect, elected by 92,000 (mostly very elderly, mostly rather well-off financially) Conservative Party members (out of about 50 million voters generally). This article is for the purpose of examining electoral chances.

First of all, we have the Brexit chaos. I favoured Leave. I still favour Brexit. However, the whole process was criminally mishandled by the Conservative government of Theresa May.

How will Brexit affect a general election? I assume that the House of Commons will not allow a WTO or “no deal” Brexit, and so any general election that is then called will see Boris Johnson parking his tanks on the lawn of Brexit Party and trying to go all out for, effectively, the Leave vote of 2016. There are dangers for the Conservative Party in that.

Brexit is not the only issue in a general election. Some more affluent voters may vote Conservative for tax or other reasons even if they oppose Brexit. Also, many in the population will never vote Conservative even if they favour Brexit. Many despise Boris Johnson and will never vote Conservative as long as he is the leader. This is, if chess, three-dimensional chess.

However, now that the Conservatives under Johnson present themselves as the “Leave”/Brexit party, it can be assumed that a sizeable number of former Conservative voters who favour staying in the EU will migrate, at least temporarily, to the only significant Remain-supporting party, the LibDems. Where else can they go? It might be argued that many Conservative MPs favour Remain, and that those MPs will receive a special vote based on that. Don’t count on it. The label is the primary motor, and if Conservative means Leave, many Remain voters will leave…the Conservative Party.

If the next general election is called without the UK having left the EU, or having left on terms dictated by the EU (Brexit In Name Only), then Brexit Party will be waiting to snap up the hard-core Brexit vote.

Brexit Party intends, at present, to contest all 650 seats. Its mere presence ensures that dozens, maybe even beyond a hundred, Conservative MPs will lose their seats, in some cases to Brexit Party, but in more cases to the LibDems or Labour.

There has been talk of a Conservative/Brexit Party electoral pact, but that carries the danger of gifting the Brexit Party a bloc of seats. which might challenge the Conservative Party more strongly later.

Labour, though now called by msm commentators a Remain party, is more nuanced. Corbyn’s fence-sitting tactic, though much criticized, is all that he can do in a circumstance where Labour-held seats were more often (about 60%) Leave-voting, though most Labour voters voted Remain (because, as I blogged recently, Labour votes are increasingly concentrated in fewer and fewer seats).

It may be, anyway, that Labour voters have concerns other than, or as well as, Brexit: low pay, the Conservative attacks on the social welfare and benefits system, the burgeoning crime and disorder problem etc.

The composition of the Boris-idiot Cabinet and government will not attract many former Labour, LibDem or floating voters.

My conclusion is that the Boris Johnson government may struggle to attract the votes of more than 30% nationwide. Recent opinion polls have put the Conservatives at anywhere between 23% and 30%. Labour has been between 18% and 28%. LibDems around 16%-20% and Brexit Party 14%-20%.

If the Conservatives continue to lean towards Brexit strongly, they risk losing many of their pro-EU voters to the LibDems, but if they try to fence-sit or move more towards Remain, many of their previous voters will vote for Brexit Party or stay at home.

There is also the Boris Factor, but we see that, even though there has been a “Boris Bounce”, its effect has been slight. The Conservatives are still polling at or below 30% (as is Labour). Indeed, it could be argued that, for many former Conservative voters, especially in marginal seats, Boris-idiot is not an attraction but a turn-off. I concede that that is a guess, but it is at least an educated one.

I have fed various recent opinion poll results into the Electoral Calculus calculator [see Notes, below], and it is quite hard to come up with a Conservative majority in the Commons. Most results show a hung Parliament with either Lab or Con as largest party. Only one showed a Conservative majority (of one vote). In several cases, both main System parties were as many as 80 MPs short of a majority.

Now we all know that the “glorious uncertainty” of the Turf is carried over to the field of battle of British elections. It is hard to predict elections in Britain and “a week is a long time in British politics”, as Harold Wilson said. Also, Electoral Calculus is a fairly rough guide. Having said that, it seems clear that, at least in the short term, the Conservatives are on the back foot here. Any gamble to increase the Conservative majority in the Commons may well backfire, as in 2017. That would mean the end of The Clown as Prime Minister, but would also mean something of a political and even Constitutional crisis.

These should be fertile days for social nationalism, but we are as yet not even in the game…

Notes

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Afterthought, 29 July 2019

David Cameron-Levita as Prime Minister always made sure that the interests of pensioners were prioritized, in particular by introducing the “Triple Lock” on State pensions. Pensions have been one of several issues taking greater prominence over the years by reason of the increasing average age of the population of the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Pension_(United_Kingdom)#Pensions_Act_2007

There were clear practical political reasons for this policy. Support for the Labour Party at elections is fairly even across the half-dozen usual age groups, whereas support for the Conservative Party is concentrated among the old and middle-aged: just under 50% of all Conservative votes are those of persons aged over 65 years. Hardly any young people intend to vote Conservative (in the 18-24 age group, below 4%).

The loyalty of the over 65s has been reinforced by pensioner-friendly policies. There are signs now that the Conservatives intend to, in the oft-seen phrase, “throw the pensioners under a bus”. In 2017 Phillip Hammond wanted to remove part of the Triple Lock, but the DUP insisted on its retention in part-payment for DUP “confidence and supply” support in the Commons.

The Conservative Party is already getting some flak from the elderly for the BBC’s announcement that free TV licences will be withdrawn for those of 75+ years. There are rumblings about bus passes for pensioners. Overall, it is clear that the free market crazies now in the ascendant under Boris-idiot want to target the elderly as they have already done the disabled, sick, unemployed etc.

The Labour Party is now the party of the blacks and browns, those dependent on State benefits, and of the public service workers. The Conservative Party is now the party of the rich, the affluent, the buy-to-let parasites and the like, and (many of) the elderly. If the elderly who are not particularly well-off desert the Conservatives, the Conservative Party is in big trouble, because only about 10%-15% of UK voters can really be described as rich or even affluent, certainly no more than 20%. In 2017, the Conservative vote amounted to 42.4% of votes cast. If half or more of those votes suddenly disappear, the Conservative Party is quite likely to disappear with them.

Further Notes

https://www.ipe.com/countries/uk/peers-call-for-removal-of-triple-lock-on-uk-state-pension/www.ipe.com/countries/uk/peers-call-for-removal-of-triple-lock-on-uk-state-pension/10030786.fullarticle

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/27/pensions-triple-lock-questions-answered

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-over-75s-licence-fee-18335538

Update, 3 February 2023

Well, we all now know that, in December 2019, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party won a supposed “landslide” at the General Election. In fact, the Conservative Party vote was only 43.6% of votes cast, but Labour’s vote fell to 32.1%, and that decided the matter.

Key was the decision of Nigel Farage to stab in the back his own candidates and supporters by withdrawing Brexit Party from serious contention. That was the key act that ensured a Johnson/Conservative win.

Brexit Party ended up with 2% of the vote nationwide. Had Farage and Brexit Party gone all out to win from the start, Brexit Party might have got 15%, which though giving Brexit Party few if any seats, would have tipped the balance back to hung Parliament territory.

Other factors were the elderly and late middle-age voters sticking with the Conservative Party, and the relentless and mainly Jewish anti-Corbyn campaign in the msm, which helped to crush Labour’s chances.