Category Archives: Farage

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Diary Blog, 6 June 2024

21 Comments

Morning music

[equestrian statue of Marcus Aurelius]

Tweets seen

He has a point, albeit a very obvious point, and that is so even if “Robinson” is basically “controlled opposition”.

In the end, civilization is created and maintained by iron necessities. It rests easy on the bones of the vanquished. If chaos and evil prevail, the opposite happens; in that case, culture and civilization and everything decent disappears, untermenschen scrabble around atop the ruins of once-great cities, and tread on the bones of those who were civilized and cultured, but just too tolerant of decadence and evil.

See also: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/01/26/the-tide-is-coming-in-reflections-on-the-possible-end-of-our-present-civilization-and-what-might-follow/

Clacton

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/nigel-farage-immigration-clacton-bursting-point

“Former Tory voters in Clacton have been switching to Reform UK over Nigel Farage’s stance on immigration.

GB News ventured up to the coastal constituency to get a feel on the ground ahead of Farage’s launch near Clacton Pier.

Immigration was the main issue raised by residents, with the cost-of-living crisis and net zero also salient issues.

Speaking hours before Farage’s arrival, Andrew Humphries told GB News: “Immigration is a massive thing, especially how it impacts on the rest of society.

“I’ve been waiting for a couple of years now for housing. My family has been here for 40 years and I’ve seen the decline of the town.

“You’ve got to help your own first before you look out for others.”

Humphries, who described himself as typically a non-voter, claimed there is a “good chance” Farage will win and argued the two-party system is broken.

Steve Schaffer, who moved to Clacton in 1957, explained his support for Farage.

“This is only a small country,” he claimed. “We’re struggling. We can’t build enough homes. The schools and hospitals are full. It’s reaching bursting point. We’ve got to stop it or slow it down somehow.”

Despite witnessing a dip immediately after the 2016 referendum, the salience of immigration has soared in recent years.

Immigration and asylum is the third most important issue in the minds of Britons, analysis by YouGov has shown.

Rozerin Altin, who was just 18, added: “I’m the oldest of six girls. I don’t want little boys going into girls’ changing rooms. I care about women’s rights. If you care about that then you should vote for Reform UK.“

[GB News]

Immigration generally should be the first and most important issue. The other important matters —economy, pay, State benefits, housing, NHS, public services, educational standards etc— are all affected, hugely, by the migration invasion.

GE 2024

People (including some “experts” etc) were saying until very recently that polling numbers for Con and Lab would converge, as they always have done. Mechanistic, formulaic thinking.

I have disagreed. I still disagree. For me, the main thing is that almost everyone, barring about (?) 10%-20%, most of whom are elderly lifelong Con voters now in their 80s and 90s, has realized that the Sunak/Liz Truss/Boris-idiot/Theresa May/Cameron-Levita Con governments have run the UK into the ground, and have been actually totally useless.

It has been clear to me for quite some time that, barring those ingrained and very elderly Con loyalists (or lifelong habit-voters), almost no-one is going to vote “Conservative” in the upcoming election. Maybe 20%, maybe 15%, or even as low as 10% nationwide. My guess would be about 18%.

The polls are still moving: the Cons are still descending. Labour has slid somewhat from its (?) 49% high to around 40%. The uninspiring prospect of Israel-puppets Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Liz Kendall etc fails to excite many voters, but I doubt whether Labour’s overall vote will be below, or much below, 40% in the end. I am thinking 40% or 42%.

The polling statistics seem clear: Labour beats Con on almost all topics, from economy and NHS through to “best PM” and even immigration. That means that, where there is a straight fight between a Labour candidate and a Conservative Party one, Lab will usually beat Con.

The joker in the pack is Reform UK. The difference in 2024 as compared to UKIP in 2015 and Brexit Party in 2019 is not really in the policy “offering”; that is all but identical. So is the leadership (Farage, mainly). The difference lies in the context.

In 2015, UKIP failed only because it was cheated by the rigged FPTP voting system. 12%+ of the popular vote, yet no seats won. That, and because the full horror of the mass migration invasion was still not understood, in its effects, by enough people.

In 2019, Farage stabbed Brexit Party in the back to help the Con Party achieve its faked “landslide” (43.6% popular vote, about one point above Labour’s “landslide of 1997).

Today, in 2024, things have moved on. Brexit was deliberately mishandled and has been negative in its consequences for that reason.

The immigration tsunami has brought in, quite literally, millions (more) of unwanted non-Europeans since 2015.

We see the “unelected” little Indian money-juggler, Sunak, throwing taxpayer money at both Israel and “Ukraine” (the brutal and dictatorial Jew-Zionist regime in Kiev).

Another aspect is the extent to which UK society has fallen apart since 2015, and especially since the 2020-2022 “panicdemic” or “scamdemic”.

Potholed and unrepaired roads have become “totemic” of it. NHS failings. The continuing migration invasion, of which the “small boats” crossing the Channel (in reality, ferried across by Royal Navy, RNLI, Border “Farce” etc) comprise only about 5% of all immigration. The slow collapse of law and order. The increasing overall cost of living.

Reform UK is still a bit of a one-trick-pony, both in policy and personnel, but it has at least a chance now of getting a handful of MPs.

More importantly, a high popular vote for Reform UK will hole this rotten misgovernment below the waterline, and that is exactly why many (including former Con voters) will vote for it.

In fact, were Labour supporters and LibDem supporters, in seats where either Labour or LibDems have no chance, to vote tactically for the party best placed to beat the Con candidate, or for Reform UK, the Cons might be left with an MP cadre in the single figures.

Well, not long to go now. Exactly 4 weeks (28 days) from today.

More tweets

In 2008/2009, I wrote and published a restricted-distribution geopolitical study which, inter alia, featured the very important central position of Turkey.

Turkey has various problems, but it also has several strengths. A huge supply of water, firstly. That is very important now. Another asset is the fact that Turkey is a fairly large net food exporting state. That may sound underwhelming, but it means that, if push comes to shove, Turkey can feed itself. A large and efficient military force, too.

Turkey is now moving towards a neutral position, despite its NATO membership.

Another “Israeli” war criminal.

The Israeli state can only do what it does because of its “diaspora” support outside Israel— the Zionist influence in the USA, France, UK etc.

Historical note

Aspects of National Socialist Germany

National Socialist Germany. 1933-1945. 6 years of peace, 6 years of war.

More tweets seen

Reform UK is an easy way for people who would never vote Labour to send a message and/or a kick to the Conservative Party.

Talking about giving the Conservative Party a kick…see below

Holden has aged hugely since he (allegedly) groped a woman at a party in 2016; I think that the photo in the report was from 2018, so only 6 years ago. He is still only 39. Hard to believe, looking at him as he now is.

Of course, someone acquitted by a jury supposedly leaves court without a stain on his character…

He is supposedly in a relationship of some kind with the political editor of the Sun “newspaper”, one Kate Ferguson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Holden_(British_politician)#Personal_life.

[Kate Ferguson]

Holden strikes me (I had not even heard of him until yesterday, despite his being Chairman of the Conservative Party— they have had so many in recent years) as a dishonest type. Just my impression of him now that I have seen him in film clips and heard online from him and about him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Holden_(British_politician)

“Put a beggar on horseback and he rides it to death” [German proverb]

One way to cheat Holden out of his prize would be for a few civic-minded people to stand for election as “Independent conservative” or similar. That might weaken the kneejerk Con habit-vote, especially if Reform UK does well.

So far, the Basildon and Billericay constituency has been safely Con, though, since established in 2010: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basildon_and_Billericay_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

The sheer gall and dishonesty of bastards such as Holden exemplifies the Sunak Con government and its several predecessors.

[“Billericay Dickie“]

More music

[Irish (IRA) volunteers c.1920]

Late tweets

On the one hand, heartbreaking, but on the other hand heartening. People can be so resilient.

Israel and its Western support network may imagine that their crimes are without punishment, but group-karma will eventually take hold of them, whether in the 21stC, 31stC or later.

Those animal-looking robots give me the creeps, if truth be known…

Late music

[Levitan, Vladimirka]

Alt-Right, Andy Ngo, animal welfare, daily blog, Defence, diary blog, elections, environment, Farage, free speech, historical, historical revisionism, Ian Millard, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Matt Goodwin, MPs, Nick Griffin, Nick Griffin, Party Politics, Reminiscences and Musings, Rishi Sunak, Russia and Russian relations, society, Starmer, The Great Replacement, the Great Reset, Uncategorized

Diary Blog, 5 June 2024

36 Comments

Morning music

Tweets seen

“In 2019, Antifa beat me on the head and face, causing a traumatic brain injury as I suffered bleeding on my brain. As I struggled to get away, they threw drinks in my eyes to blind me so I couldn’t get help. I remember their laughter as I was bleeding from my ear and eyes. I was lucky to survive and recover.

Many leftists on social media are celebrating that someone hurled a drink in the face of @Nigel_Farage today as he was campaigning in Clacton, Essex. They’re reveling in the fear that a victim feels when being hit in the eyes with an unknown liquid—in a country that suffers acid attacks. The celebrations are emblematic of a level of political violence that the left tolerates and desires on their political opponents.“

Perpetrators of violent attacks, such as that in Clacton yesterday, must be punished properly. I doubt whether the present minor judiciary has the will to do that.

I blogged about these issues several years ago:

Repulsive Jo Brand, Repulsive BBC

Farage has been attacked before, as was Nick Griffin (in 2010, I think).

Very true. If only, though, the British and French had retained control of the Middle East and North Africa after WW2. No crazy demagogues, no “Israel”, no war…

See also: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/03/07/when-i-was-not-arrested-in-egypt/.

[The Corniche, Alexandria]

Manchester, apparently. Here, though, on the Hampshire coast, it is 16C and partly cloudy, partly sunny.

By my use of Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html], a similar result: Labour 488 MPs (majority 326), Con 82, LibDems 43, Greens 1, Reform UK 0, Plaid 3, SNP 14 (and Northern Irish 18).

Almost but not quite a Con wipeout.

I myself still think that <50 is a possibility for the Cons. I concede that the many experts and specialists are against me, but my reasons are as previously blogged:

  • the fact that few 2019 and earlier Con voters now think of the Con Party and Government as anything other than completely useless;
  • that there are many (or are there?) “secret” Reform UK intending or possible voters; and
  • that there are many voters who will vote tactically to sink the Cons, even if many of the same voters hate, despise or fear Starmer-Labour.

A point or so fewer for the Cons, a point extra for Labour, a point extra for the LibDems, and a point or so more for Reform UK, and the Con cadre of MPs would reduce to only 30.

This is no exact science.

“This is a guest post from an anonymous 25-year-old member of Gen-Z. They live in London. They work in Westminster. And they are utterly fed-up with the dire state of the country.

If you believe the polls then the Tory party is about to be completely rejected by my generation, Gen-Z, the members of which were born in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Remarkably, just 5% of us are planning to vote Tory next month while a staggering 83% are planning to either vote Labour, Lib Dem, Green, or SNP.

But as one of those few right-leaning Zoomers, let me tell you —even that 5% figure is deeply misleading. Why?

Because, as Matt pointed out on Twitter/X, one enormous problem facing the Tories today is not just the remarkably low number of Zoomers who are planning to vote Conservative; it’s that the few Zoomer conservatives who do exist are also utterly fed-up and frustrated with the party and want to see it completely obliterated.

And why do they feel like this, exactly?

Well, consider my own story.

I’m writing this at 3am in the morning and I have less than four hours before I need to get up and start my morning routine for work.

But, once again, the neighbours who live downstairs, below my flat, have decided to have another all-night party. And unlike me, they don’t have to wake up for work.

Because, unlike me, they don’t have to work.

They qualify for social housing; their rent is subsidised by the large and rising amount of council tax I am forced to pay each month —on top of ruinous income taxes, national insurance contributions and student loan repayments.

The majority of the tenants in my housing block are unemployed; I see few of them leaving the house for work in the morning.

My interactions with them are limited to hostile glaring mixed in with the occasional attempted mugging. On the rare occasion I have female company I have to escort my dates to and from the bus stop to stop them being sexually harassed.

What scraps of my salary the State allows me to keep are eaten up immediately by rent. I pay almost half my post-tax income to live on an ex-council estate in Zone 3, London, with the smell of weed continually hanging in the air.

Unless I achieve an income of more than £200,000 it will simply be impossible to secure a mortgage on a house the same size as the one my parents bought in 1989.

My friends work in high-powered finance and legal careers but, like me, struggle on with flatshares well into their late 20s, if not their early 30s.

They are spending the best decade of their life working until midnight seven days a week for the chance to attain the same middle-class lifestyle their parents achieved much earlier in life.

The reward for being wildly successful financially in 2024? To live in a semi-detached house that was built for unskilled professionals in inner London a century ago.

And that’s not all …

If I decide to have children, which you might think ought to be encouraged given the demographic crisis facing Western nations like Britain, I will have to contend with extortionate childcare costs, or deprive my household of a second income.

Renting a three-bedroom flat in a safe part of London will cost in excess of £3,000 a month; my children will have to grow up in far more cramped conditions than I did, most likely having to share a room and perhaps dodging stray bullets.

The only feasible route out of this incredibly depressing situation is to leave the city I grew up in and commute two hours both ways from a town I have no local connection to —where I have no friends or family living nearby.

Even with cheaper housing, I will still have to send my kids to local schools where they will be bombarded with relentless propaganda about how to ‘change their gender’, acknowledge their ‘whiteness’, and apologise for the British Empire.

It is certainly true that previous generations of young people faced more challenging circumstances. I am not (yet) being asked to walk across No Mans Land and into a sea of barbed wire and machine guns.

But it is one thing being asked to suffer for a cause like liberty in Europe, or to grimace through destitution because of seemingly uncontrollable events like the Wall Street Crash. It is quite another to be economically enslaved to the point of infertility to sustain a growing population of resentful dependents. 

And I am one of the lucky ones...”

[from the Matt Goodwin blog on Substack].

A long piece to paste on the blog, but worth reading, I think, despite the several obvious gaps in the author’s reasoning.

More tweets

Some mugs are still sending fraudster “Jack Monroe” (Melissa Hadjicostas) money every month via Patreon! Utter utter mugs.

“A certain” ethno-religion…

Barwell is a silly little guy. A joke. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Barwell.

As for Goodwin’s rhetorical questions…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalergi_Plan.

Barwell seems to imagine that, as the (white/Brit) workforce ages, it can simply be replaced by black, brown (etc) imported equivalents. Not so. A high proportion of the imports (and offspring thereof) are parasitic and/or useless, with a smaller proportion actively criminal or terroristic.

Barwell’s thesis (to thus dignify it) seems to be that, as —say— 1M Brits age, retire, or die, the thing to do is to import 10M unwanted non-European immigrants in the hope that 10% of them can replace the 1M Brits who have checked out of the labour market (or life). What about the notional 9M other imports? They may be (and most are) useless, or near-useless, but all need/want/demand housing, food, water, shelter, NHS services, money…

Not sure whether that is Krakow or the rebuilt (post-WW2) old central part of Warsaw. Maybe the latter. I saw both on several trips to Poland in 1988 and 1989, but I should probably not recognize much of the newer areas now, judging by photos I have seen. The changes, esp. in Warsaw, have been immense.

Late tweets

Exactly what this blog has been saying for quite a while.

The 2024 General Election result, using Electoral Calculus, and based on the latest YouGov polling: Cons with only 55 MPs; LibDems on 63, and they are the official Opposition; Reform UK, significantly, with 3 MPs (presumably including Farage), and Greens on 2. Also important, the SNP with only 14 MPs.

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangeTactical
Fraction		Pred Seats
CON44.7%37619.0%0321-3210%55
LAB33.0%19740.0%2973+2945%491
LIB11.8%810.0%550+555%63
Reform2.1%017.0%30+30%3
Green2.8%17.0%10+10%2
SNP4.0%483.1%236-340%14
PlaidC0.5%20.7%20+20%4
Other1.1%03.2%00+00%0
N.Ire 18 00+00%18

Worth reading in full.

Late music

[Berlin, 1945: Marshal Zhukov inspects the ruins of the Reichstag]
Alt-Right, basic income, daily blog, diary blog, elections, Farage, free speech, historical, Ian Millard, immigration, Liz Truss, Matt Goodwin, MPs, Party Politics, society, Starmer, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

Diary Blog, 4 June 2024

29 Comments

Morning music

[Watercress Line, Hampshire; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watercress_Line]

“Jack Monroe” and other frauds

I have covered on the blog, in past years, various aspects of the fraudulent “grifting” of “Jack Monroe”, but even today there are, it seems, utter mugs around who not only believe her nonsense but also send money to her.

I have also covered, to a lesser extent, other similar frauds: Simon Harris, aka “Man Behaving Dadly” (Essex Jew who blagged £600,000 from Essex County Council, as well as large amounts from individual mugs online); “Supertanskiii” (whose modus operandi is to post tweets etc shouting angrily and often vulgarly at “the Tories”, while asking mugs to send her money; what will she do when her beloved fake “Labour” turns out to be as bad, or worse?); Julia Grace Patterson (her u.s.p. is that she was briefly a medical doctor in the NHS —for about 2 years—); Mike Stuchbery (see https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/10/23/a-few-words-about-mike-stuchbery/) etc.

Then of course, there is the “Captain Tom” fraud/embezzlement/”grift”, carried out by the daughter and son-in-law of the ancient ex-officer who raised millions (supposedly for the NHS) by that now-famous yet brainless stunt of traversing his garden lawn on a Zimmer frame thousands of times a few years ago. “Captain Tom” himself was no doubt sincere; his daughter is just a freeloading fraud.

As the BBC might say “other fraudulent grifters are available“…

Even I myself was briefly taken in by the Depher fraud (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gxg4jd0ggo), and gave a few pounds a couple of times.

…and still sob-storying about “her boy“, who must be 20 years old now, and who (it is said) was mostly taken care of by others, not by drink/drug wreck “Jack Monroe”.

A black woman in Bristol was imprisoned for doing but a fraction of what “Jack Monroe” has done. I am hardly likely to intone “is it ‘cos she is black?“, but it hardly seems fair or just when “Jack Monroe’s” behaviour has been 100x worse… see https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13283627/black-lives-matter-blm-fraud-bristol-colston-statue-protest.html.

I still fail to see how “Jack Monroe” asking for money to sue Lee Anderson and Martin Daubney (and then spending the money on her own pleasures and whims) is any different to what Xahra Saleem did.

Other tweets seen

The BBC must be defunded.

Not that I have much time for Farage, for several reasons. For one thing, “net zero” migration would still, if implemented, mean about 200,000 non-whites entering the UK and staying indefinitely, because about that many persons (mostly whites people, i.e. real British people) leave every year to try to find a decent life is Australasia or North America etc.

Well, of course, Sunak has all the charisma or “in-touch-ness” of a limp lettuce, something that Sunak has in common with ludicrously over-promoted and now washed-up 49-day-PM Liz Truss.

That reminds me: I have heard and seen nothing, for weeks if not months, about or from Woollyhead Trussbanger (Kwasi Kwarteng), who lasted only 38 days as Chancellor, yet received a payoff for those 38 days of nearly £17,000 (in addition to salary etc): see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwasi_Kwarteng#Dismissal.

Woollyhead will get another quite decent payoff, because he is not contesting his safe seat at Spelthorne (Surrey), which has only once elected a non-Conservative— in 1945. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spelthorne_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

I can only imagine that Woollyhead has a very good job offer somewhere. Who on Earth would employ him? Puzzling. still, there it is.

Controlled opposition. The Conservative Party is generally pro the Jewish/Zionist/Israel lobby, and Israel itself. So is Farage. So is Goodwin. Get the picture?

Only a social-national party or movement can save the future of this country, but such a party or movement does not exist. The nearest is Patriotic Alternative, I suppose.

Hard to believe.

I too, like tweeter “@JoeeggJoe”, think that the Cons have the potential to fall further. Now that Farage is Reform UK leader, Reform may increase its support, not so much because Farage is wildly popular but simply because Reform now as a very identifiable leader, which was not the case with Tice.

I also tend to think that there is a bloc of “secret Reform UK” voters, unwilling to admit to it publicly or to poll canvassers, but who, on 4 July (or before that, in postal voting), will put their X by Reform UK candidates, either because they support Reform UK anyway, or because they see it as the best way, where they live, of kicking the Conservative Party).

The clowns at Westminster are far more amusing (usually, though, unintentionally) than the huge number of officially-approved and unfunny “comedians” we see in the msm.

Good grief! Ecce the new Mayor of “Derry” (“Londonderry”, as was). So much for Irish nationalism! The SDLP, and Sinn Fein, are as fake as the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Is this what the IRA and others struggled for, all those years, all those decades, indeed all those centuries?!

More music

I like The Shadows for several reasons. Firstly, their music reminds me of my fairly early years of childhood, I having been born in 1956 (and so was about 6-7 in 1963). Secondly, their originality and quality. Thirdly, their music evokes a sense of the optimism of England in the years of the early/mid 1960s. Fourthly, they are or were unmistakably English, for all their enthusiasm for Americana (eg their piece, F.B.I.) in those Atlanticist years.

I remember seeing their name on the outside of the Kursaal in Ostend (Belgium) in the summer of maybe 1963, maybe 1965, along with that of Cliff Richard, when they were his backing group.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shadows.

Nigel Farage attacked in Clacton

The smug look on the little bitch’s face says it all. Entitled. Probably pig-ignorant. Probably either a student or a trustafarian, or maybe unemployed. My money would be on her being a student of some kind, probably from an affluent family.

Almost certainly pro-mass migration and the invasion of the UK.

Regular readers will be aware that I am no fan of Farage’s “controlled opposition” “conservative nationalism” but this must be punished. I doubt that that will happen.

I wrote a piece about this type of sub-terrorism some years ago, when Farage was again the victim of an idiot milkshake-thrower, and the terminally unfunny supposed “comedienne”, Jo Brand, “joked” that it should have been battery acid.

Repulsive Jo Brand, Repulsive BBC

Will the police track down and arrest the woman who today attacked Farage? I wonder…

Obviously, today’s attack was very predictable, and Farage does not seem to have effective personal protection.

I wonder whether Farage will get more votes because of what happened today. Maybe. Certainly, I have scoured the Press looking for any mention of his Conservative Party opponent, one Giles Watling, but without result. Watling is invisible in Clacton. Farage is the only game in town, both for those who like his candidature and those who hate it (and him).

Farage is probably a good deal more sanguine about the attack today than I should be in his position. I am restricted in what I can express, by reason of my free speech trial last year, which has had at least a marginally chilling effect on my freedom of expression, but I think that my regular readers will be able to read between the lines.

The perpetrator should be identified and arrested, though. At least that.

I see that a 25-y-o woman from Clacton has now been arrested: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/04/milkshake-thrown-nigel-farage-campaign-clacton/.

I presume that we shall know more about her when she appears in the magistrates’ court.

[the guilty party: note the “entitled” smug smirk]

I have now seen a small piece about Giles Watling, on the BBC website:

“Mr Watling told BBC Essex that Mr Farage “doesn’t give two hoots” about the constituency.

“This is all about Nigel, as ever,” said the former actor, who appeared in 1980s BBC sitcom Bread.

“I don’t want to see the residents of Clacton-on-Sea taken for granted and sacrificed on the altar of his vanity.”

Mr Watling said he felt it was his job to “transform Clacton’s future” by using government funding he had secured.”

[BBC]

Watling himself seems rather remote from the majority of Clacton residents and voters. I notice that, in the photo on the BBC website, he is wearing a Garrick Club tie:

[Giles Watling, Conservative Party candidate for the Clacton constituency, 2024, wearing his Garrick Club tie; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrick_Club]
[Garrick Club tie]
[Garrick Club— dining room]
[Garrick Club— entrance]

Does Watling have much in common with most of his constituents?

Basic Income

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockton,_California#Experiment_in_Guaranteed_Basic_Income

“As part of a privately funded experiment in Universal Basic Income in 2019, the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (S.E.E.D.) conducted a pilot project that gave a $500 stipend to 125 randomly selected residents for an 24-month period with “no strings attached.“[51] “

[Wikipedia]

“SEED was a Randomized Control Trial that distributed $500 a month for 24 months to 125 recipients. The cash was unconditional, with no strings attached and no work requirements, and recipients were selected randomly from neighborhoods at or below Stockton’s median household income.

Results gathered from the first year, which spanned February of 2019 to February of 2020, found recipients obtained full-time employment at more than twice the rate of non-recipients. Recipients were less anxious and depressed, both over time and compared to the control  group. They also saw statistically significant improvements in emotional health, fatigue levels and overall well being. Recipients had a greater ability to pay for unexpected expenses.

People spent the SEED money on basic needs, including food (nearly 37%), sales/merchandise (22%, on home goods, clothes/shoes and discount/dollar stores), utilities (11%) and auto costs (10%). Less than 1% was spent on alcohol and/or tobacco.”

https://www.stocktondemonstration.org/press-landing/guaranteed-income-increases-employment-improves-financial-and-physical-health

In my view, Basic Income must be the way to go, with AI and robotics impacting employment and set to do so more. The alternative to Basic Income is to have a tiny sliver of the population ultra-wealthy, a wider layer wealthy, and about 80% of the population near-destitute.

More tweets seen

When is the Judicial Conduct Investigations Office going to remove Myerson from sitting as a Recorder (p/t judge)? He is plainly unfit.

The same goes for his role as King’s Counsel and barrister: https://www.barstandardsboard.org.uk/for-the-public/reporting-concerns.html#How%20to%20report%20a%20concern.

I have noted before on the blog how Myerson sometimes tweets dozens of times in a day; the other day nearly a hundred. An obsessive.

So far today, by my count, Myerson has tweeted and retweeted about 28 times. On a Tuesday, and mostly this afternoon. Relatively modest by his standards.

Well worth reading the whole thread. It happened not in 1980s (or 1950s) South Africa, not in Russia, not in Kazakhstan, nor in China, but in one of the wealthiest states of the USA, California. So much for “the land of freedom”. Really bad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Proudfoot.

“Managed” decline? Hardly! “Mismanaged” maybe. “Uncontrolled“, really.

Nasty little Con scribbler-careerist James Forsyth [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Forsyth_(political_aide)] seems to be to be a very unpleasant little shit (I concede, though, that I have never met him).

Forsyth and his wife, Allegra Stratton, have been albatrosses round the neck of the Conservative Party for over a decade. Sunak was best man at their wedding in 2011.

Allegra Stratton [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegra_Stratton] was one reason why “Boris”-idiot sank as PM. As for Forsyth, he was appointed Political Secretary to Sunak in December 2022. Since then, well…

‘Nuff said?

(actually, it comes as a shock to discover that the Forsyths are in their mid-40s now. Tempus fugit…).

Late tweets

“Amir Bohbout, military analyst of the Israeli website: The Israeli Air Force is not ready for Hezbollah drones and this is a fact. Hezbollah has thousands of drones at its disposal, and this means that if we increase the depth of our attacks to 40 or 100 kilometers and Hezbollah feels that it is in a war situation, then it will send a large number of drones here.“

As predicted on this blog quite a while ago, eventually Israel and particularly the Tel Aviv region will face fleets of thousands of drones. Also, powerful missiles in very large numbers.

“Oil reserves of different regions of the earth Middle East by far in the top. Recently, a report in the British Parliament revealed that Russia has discovered unimaginable oil in areas of the Arctic that Britain also claims. The report says that the volume of oil in this discovery is more than 510 billion barrels.“

Late music

[painting by Arnold Bocklin]

Alison Chabloz, Alt-Right, Brexit, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, daily blog, diary blog, elections, Farage, free speech, Ian Millard, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Nigel Farage, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, the Great Reset, Uncategorized

Diary Blog, 22 March 2021

21 Comments

Alison Chabloz

The persecuted satirical singer-songwriter, Alison Chabloz, faces trial under the notorious bad law of the Communications Act 2003, s.127 on 30-31 March 2021 (next Tuesday and Wednesday).

She has now blogged about her present situation: https://alisonchabloz.com/2021/03/22/alison-chabloz-legal-update-march-2021/.

Alison’s blog is otherwise found here: https://alisonchabloz.com/.

[Notes: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/medialse/2012/10/19/section-127-of-the-communications-act-2003-threat-or-menace/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Act_2003#Malicious_communications].

[Alison Chabloz]

Alison Chabloz welcomes attendance by supporters (Westminster Mags, Marylebone Road, London; nearest Underground–Edgware Road; trial starts at 10.30, but anyone can enter at any time).

Tweets seen

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1373245861191430146?s=20
Image

I scored the same as John Rentoul this time: 6/10. I did not know the answers to questions 2, 5, 9, and 10.

That is the extraordinary thing about the misnamed Scottish National Party. It has scarcely any of the characteristics of any form of nationalism.

The other extraordinary thing about the SNP is that it took it about 37 years from its foundations in the early 1930s to get even one MP into the House of Commons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party#House_of_Commons_2.

The number of Scottish MPs at Westminster varied, in those years, from 72 to (the present position) 59.

The SNP had no more than half a dozen MPs until 2015 (except for the mid/late 1970s, when it had 11). In 2015, the SNP won 56 out of 59 Commons seats (that fell to 35 in 2017, but rose again to 48 in 2019).

What happened in the years 2010-2015? The near-collapse of support, in Scotland, for the existing System parties: Conservative, Liberal Democrat and, above all, Labour, which lost 40 out of its 41 Scottish seats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Outcome.

[2015 General Election: a map of the results, showing each constituency as a hexagon of equal size, with the black lines showing separations in regions]
[similar map for the 2017 General Election]
[similar map for the 2019 General Election; and note the erosion of Labour support in England]

The SNP is of course a System party itself: pro-Jewish lobby, pro-Israel, pro-immigration, pro-finance capitalism. Domestically, in policy terms, it is mostly somewhere around where Labour was in the mid 1970s.

For me, the interesting speculation is as to whether, should support for the “three main” System parties collapse in England, a new social national party might not do what the SNP did in Scotland. Despite the absence of any credible nationalist (let alone social-national) party in England, it might be possible, in an extreme situation. The considerable though brief success or near-success of the weak conservative nationalist parties, UKIP and Brexit Party, has shown what might still be possible.

More tweets

https://twitter.com/dicksblackbess/status/1374029446349488130?s=20
https://twitter.com/dicksblackbess/status/1373923862396686338?s=20

Much of what has happened and is still happening in the UK (and the EU states, and Australia/New Zealand) in the past year or so has been a mass psychological experiment, on a huge scale. Social conditioning. Part of the “Great Reset”…

https://twitter.com/dicksblackbess/status/1373748049151995910?s=20
https://twitter.com/SilkenThread88/status/1373916345172160520?s=20

Late tweets

…and I wonder what (((lobby))) is behind it all, though well-concealed?…

Late music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_von_Dohn%C3%A1nyi]
Alt-Right, Angela Rayner, Boris Johnson, Conservative Friends of Israel, daily blog, diary blog, Douglas Murray, ethnostate, Farage, free speech, historical, historical revisionism, Ian Millard, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Katie Hopkins, Labour Friends of Israel, Mark Collett, MPs, Nick Griffin, Nick Griffin, Party Politics, society, Starmer, The Great Replacement, The Great Reset, Uncategorized

Diary Blog, 11-12 June 2020

9 Comments

An enemy of the British people

Madeline Odent's home in Hertfordshire was visited by police on Wednesday, following a series of tweets she sent on Tuesday explaining how household chemicals can destroy some statues
[above: Madeline Odent]

“Police arrived at the home of an Oxford-educated museum curator last night after she tweeted a guide on how to use domestic chemicals to destroy bronze statues in the wake of recent Black Lives Matters protests.

Madeline Odent, the privately schooled curator of Royston Museum in Hertfordshire, sent an inflammatory series of tweets last night to her 5,164 followers, which was then shared thousands of times.

In the posts, the American-born banker’s wife revealed how to dissolve bronze statues, saying that the damage would be ‘irreversible’ and ‘practically impossible to stop’.” [Daily Mail]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8407725/Hertfordshire-police-arrive-home-museum-curator-tweeted-destroy-bronze-statues.html

A Jewess tweets support for the criminal Odent:

Quelle surprise. The gravediggers of our European heritage.

A war is coming, which may be in part a race war, but is really better considered as a culture war. The above Daily Mail report makes it clear that the woman featured has, in effect, declared war on the people of Britain and on all white Northern European culture and civilization.

There are many like her in the UK, often in privileged or influential positions. They think that they themselves are immune, protected by wealth, privilege and a police force which now often seems to have inbuilt bias towards affluent yet anti-British persons.

Latest news about the race/culture war in the UK

“Scout founder Robert Baden-Powell statue to be removed in Poole following criticism from campaigners, accusing him of racism and homophobia.” [BBC News]

Many are asking when the police or government will act properly to protect these vestiges of our proud history. The answer is— probably never, because Westminster has fallen, the mainstream media have fallen (long ago), the police have fallen, the whole edifice of society is at least falling, and soon it will be up to the British people to take the necessary actions, those actions that “established authority” has quite deliberately decided not to take, to protect our culture, civilization and future.

Monkeyworld UK, 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8408095/Shocking-footage-shows-Hackney-police-officer-wrestle-suspect-passersby-selfies.html

https://twitter.com/MarkACollett/status/1270973854349959170?s=20

Rather than helping the officer the man gets his mobile phone out and starts filming as the suspect is heard screaming at the officer to leave him alone
Black Lives Matter and 'slave owner' were among the phrases daubed on the statue of Queen Victoria in Woodhouse Moor Park in Leeds before being removed today.

Who or what is behind the war on white people and our history?

Not the blacks, who are almost invariably incapable of organizing anything. No, you have to look to the Zionists and others embedded in the power structures. They are the ones who are using “Black Lives Matter” etc for their own purposes. Put another way, this is part of “The Great Replacement”, or to express the same idea in yet another way, “White Genocide”.

Not just the USA; the UK too. In fact all of Europe. The propaganda is incessant.

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/tv-ads-and-soaps-are-the-propaganda-preferred-by-the-system-in-the-uk/

Some tweets seen this morning

[above: one of the “Che” quotations that his latter-day supporters prefer to forget…]
https://twitter.com/UK_4_Democracy/status/1270603977621671936?s=20

I am not exactly a fan of Katie Hopkins (or Churchill, for that matter), but her comments here are worth a hearing:

…and to shoplift with impunity, I suppose!

More seriously, resist facemasks, resist the petty tyrants trying to enforce “social distancing” etc. The virus has pretty much come and gone. The British people can now rise up and cast off their shackles. Only then can they fight in the upcoming culture wars.

Interesting

The patience of the British people is not inexhaustible: https://www.iambirmingham.co.uk/2020/06/10/lynch-mob-mentality-coventry-two-black-youths-chased-crowd/

Labour chooses suicide

The Labour Party thinks that all it has to do to win a general election is to wait for Boris-idiot and his government of fools to mess up. Well, there is some basis for that, as witness the latest opinion polling, but it is probably more accurate to say that the two parties are converging in the polls, but that all that is happening is that the Conservative Party is reverting to a slight lead over Labour.

When one looks at Labour Friends of Israel Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner bending the knee in fealty to the anti-British mob, it becomes impossible to see them as leading a government.

The Conservative Party did not win the 2019 General Election; Labour lost it. See below:

[above: voter migration 2017-2019]

In 2019, the misnamed “Conservatives” did not gain many voters (contrary to the msm narrative); their vote increased by only one percentage point vis a vis 2017. Labour, however, lost eight points vis a vis 2017. Half of those Labour losses were former Labour voters simply abstaining.

A major reason why Labour failed in 2019 is because very many English and Welsh people thought of it as anti-white. I doubt that Labour can get back from that. Politics is becoming polarized, partly on racial lines but more on racial-cultural lines.

The present government is plainly incompetent, but I doubt that Labour can persuade the voters that it can be trusted either.

My conclusion from the above is that the British people are crying out for social-national leadership, though largely unconsciously.

The latest UK censorship news…

https://twitter.com/Periander_Smith/status/1271190528638562304?s=20

Idiots like Piers Morgan start balls rolling but then find out that they keep rolling and end up doing damage all over the place. The msm talking heads, “our” corrupt and stupid MPs, the “celebrity” idiots, all bowing down to the black/brown mobs and “antifa” thugs, and all bending the knee in sign of fealty to the forces of evil destruction….where do they think this will end, this thing that they themselves have triggered? Either in the destruction of our civilization or in the destruction of the inferior elements in it.

That’s (((their))) idea. It’s called “The Great Replacement” and, if carried out, will be the end of everything decent in Western culture and civilization in the end…

Below, today’s thick Irish tweet of the day:

https://twitter.com/LeftyIrishBear/status/1271188649166635008?s=20

“N-word“? Oh, he must mean “nigger“…

and a notorious Jew twitter troll (below) thinks that “the answer” is to “edit out” the word “nigger”… In the immortal words of Mandy Rice-Davies, “well, he would, wouldn’t he?”

Yes, let’s censor Fawlty Towers because one character in one episode uses one arguably undiplomatic word once or twice. Because the BBC now would never use offensive words…oh, no, wait…

https://twitter.com/MetcalfeDavid/status/1271180226870087682?s=20

Hello

Greetings to all well-intentioned readers of my blog this evening. Anyone (((not well-intentioned))), get lost while you still can. Apropos of nothing…

Some more tweets seen

I disagree with Griffin here. Leave Marx in Highgate Cemetery. In fact, give him some company, such as anyone who wants to destroy British or any white European history and culture. Give him thousands of companions…

https://twitter.com/MarkACollett/status/1270590973303799808?s=20

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2012/11/thoughts-on-emigration.html

Peter Hitchens writing about “where to go if one were to emigrate”. When you examine it, not so easy to decide (assuming you have a choice) as may be at first imagined.

Of course, anyone emigrating from the UK now is giving up the struggle against the untermenschen and barbarians…

The next few years (2020-2027) can be compared to the period 1987-1994. Huge changes.

The Tim Montgomeries of this world never quite awaken to what is behind manifestations such as the “bending knee” nonsense promoted by UK/USA msm, politicians, “celebrities” etc. (((NWO/ZOG))).

The “Tim Montgomeries” of this world regard events such as the tearing down of white Northern European history as just…events. Nothing behind it all. A kind of unplanned, unexpected wave of events, akin to a car crash. No, monsieur Montgomerie! Wake UP!

Wake up to the ZOG conspiracy that is behind this. Evil hiding in plain sight.

Oh, and, Montgomerie, forget this meaningless “right/left” idea. The true basis is European v. non-European.

Again…

Build “bridges” to the evil untermenschen who want to bury us? No!

Here (below), an example of camp “Conservative” decadence. Matthew Parris:

So let’s write some history, in a way that will have “Conservative” decadents such as Matthew Parris and Fraser Nelson tearing out their own hair…

Late night music

Friday 12 June

Header media

As far as the UK is concerned, Coronavirus is now almost in the past. What is not in the past is the damage done (by “lockdown”/shutdown) to the economy. To say that is not to prioritize “money” before “people”. Countries without functioning economies cannot maintain sophisticated or even adequate health services (and if you think that Cuba proves otherwise, look more closely at Cuba).

Mandela statue

“What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander”, it is said. There is a possibility that the “freedom-fighter” will have his statue in London relocated to the bottom of the Thames soon.

I should imagine that, overall, Nelson Mandela did a great deal more harm in this world than the Bristol merchant and slave-trader Edward Colston.

In fact, this morning I heard some typical BBC Radio 4 propaganda piece about Robben Island, where Mandela was incarcerated after having been found guilty, in the 1960s, of plotting to start a race war in South Africa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robben_Island

The BBC drone or guest broadcast that he himself had visited Robben Island, which he said is 7 miles off the coast (it’s 4 miles, but I suppose that I may have misheard kilometres as miles).

Robben Island Village
[above: Robben Island Village on Robben Island, South Africa]

By the way, when Mandela, who had been (somewhat) educated as a lawyer, turned to direct political violence in the mid-1950s, he was no naive young man. He was nearly 40 years old. In fact he failed his LLB (law degree) three times and only finally passed it in 1988, when he was a celebrity prisoner aged 70.

Incidentally, Mandela was not sent to Robben Island for “political activism”, but for conspiring to start a race war and for conspiring to commit sabotage etc. In the UK today, he would be convicted of terrorist offences on similar facts.

Most of the defence advocates for the several defendants were Jews.

At the end of the trial (which took 8 months), Mandela was allowed to make a 3 hour speech! Try that in a British court! So much for Mandela having been chucked into prison after an unjust show trial…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rivonia_Trial

In fact, Mandela was moved from Robben Island in 1982 to another prison, where he had his own quarters and was given medical care at a high level (including a prostate operation at a hospital). Later, he was moved again, and lived in a house inside that prison. He even had his own cook! Hardly the GULAG archipelago…

“Mandela’s 70th birthday in July 1988 attracted international attention, including a tribute concert at London’s Wembley Stadium that was televised and watched by an estimated 200 million viewers.[190] Although presented globally as a heroic figure, he faced personal problems when ANC leaders informed him that Winnie had set herself up as head of a gang, the “Mandela United Football Club”, which had been responsible for torturing and killing opponents—including children—in Soweto.” [Wikipedia]

I shall be interested to see whether Mandela’s statue in Parliament Square, London, is taken down by action directe.

Perplexing

Saw tweets from a very biased, anti-British, anti-white, academic historian (and now author), but what perplexes me is the reference here:

https://twitter.com/lottelydia/status/1271005571752361984?s=20

I had previously assumed (for several reasons) that this person must be Jew or part-Jew (despite the “Irish” surname), but this tweet puzzled me.

Admittedly, I am probably not very deeply informed about Jewish dietary rules (they call them kashrut), but my understanding is that oats, being vegetable, are what Jews call parev, i.e. neither dairy produce nor meat.

Surely “milk” made from oats is still parev, however like real milk it is? In any case, I had thought that anything parev could be eaten with either meat or dairy produce, so long as those two were themselves not mixed. I expect that I am missing something (or was the tweet a kind of joke?). (and why am I wasting time on this? I think that I need some breakfast myself…).

For those blissfully unaware of the existence of the above individual, she is “Lecturer in Twentieth-Century British History, Equality and Diversity Officer, World Histories Convenor“: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/history/about/staff/clr1y14.page and here are a couple of her recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/lottelydia/status/1270678894367170560?s=20
https://twitter.com/lottelydia/status/1270679595210194944?s=20

Remember what Hitler said, that the Jews have never created a civilization, but have destroyed many…

Tweets just now seen

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenUK/status/1271354710130331648?s=20

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenUK/status/1271361728027209728?s=20

Ha ha! “What goes around comes around”…”Nel-son, Nelson Mandel-l-la!“…

https://twitter.com/GreenwoodOutlaw/status/1271370819730620417?s=20

https://twitter.com/MilesBettah/status/1271370810721255426?s=20

Musical interlude

A concert given in 1942 in Berlin.

[above: Wilhelm Furtwängler conducting the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra at a 1942 concert given at an AEG company plant]

Meet fire with fire

I read that the “Black Lives Matter” demonstration (anti-white semi-riot) planned for tomorrow (Saturday) has been called off because (real) British counter-demonstrators have been massing. Or as the traitorous Daily Mirror puts it, “Black Lives Matter protest in London’s Hyde Park cancelled over far-right fears“. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/black-lives-matter-protest-londons-22180297

[above: “Antifa” slut holds placard]

Proof that the only way to stop this kind of (covertly) officially-approved anti-British insurrection is by meeting it on its own ground.

Tweets seen

[above: picture of scribbler Peter Hitchens in Oxford, refusing to bend the knee in sign of fealty to “black power”]

I agree with Hitchens when he will not accept “Triumph of the Will” as title for a picture of himself. The real Triumph of the Will should not be trivialized.

Editorial use only. No book cover usage.Mandatory Credit: Photo by Nsdap/Kobal/Shutterstock (5879009f)Triumph Des Willens (1934)Triumph Des Willens - 1934Director: Leni RiefenstahlNsdapGERMANYScene Still...Das Dokument Vom ReichsparteitagLe Triomphe de la volonté

Tweets seen

For my account of my own “voluntary” (involuntary) encounter with the Essex Police, see below: https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/07/13/when-i-was-a-victim-of-a-malicious-zionist-complaint/

Now (Friday evening) I have just heard Cressida Dick, Common Purpose member and Commissioner of Metropolitan Police, say that those [i.e. “Black Lives Matter” non-whites and “Antifa” idiots and thugs] planning to come to London tomorrow to “protest” [i.e. deface and/or tear down statues of historical personalities] should not come to London because there are those “intent on disorder” [white British people —mainly, overwhelmingly— intent on defending their history, culture and civilization from untermenschen and/or the mob].

The inference is clear: the Metropolitan Police Commissioner is basically on the side of the mob, of the untermenschen, of the traitors. The mob are those merely “protesting”, the defenders of Britain are those “intent on disorder”. She just wants the “de-legitimizing” of the British people —and European bloodlines— to be done without [white] “disorder”…

The ordinary police are just tools, and are under the command now of subversives posing as “senior police officers”.

Peter Hitchens: “A combination of fiery Leftism and Ukip-type patriotism could be the very thing to sweep away the So-Called Conservative Party which represents nothing except the careers of its MPs and the interests of its donors” [Peter Hitchens, Daily Mail]

As usual, Hitchens gets it half-right… Britain does not want or need UKIP-style fake “patriotism” but true social-nationalism. Oh, and ditch that fake “left/right” stuff, that was outworn even before the Second World War.

Where Hitchens is at least on the right track is in noticing that the new revolutionary party (if one emerges) and its victory can be, I hope will be, both social and national; it needs to be both.

This made me laugh:

BBC World Service

The World Service was so good in the 1970s, 1980s, but is now pretty much unlistenable. Politically correct, with ignorant presenters, and all run (quite obviously) on a shoestring.

Oh, well, time to say goodnight. Goodnight England…

Alt-Right, by-elections, Farage, immigration, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Stoke Central By-Election: Final Word before Polling

6 Comments

I have blogged twice previously about the upcoming Stoke Central by-election:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/01/18/stoke-on-trent-central-preview/

and

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/01/26/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/

in which I predicted a very close race. In the latter post I suggested that UKIP and Paul Nuttall could finally crack it and defeat Labour in a former Labour heartland. That post was written on 26 January, since which date Paul Nuttall and UKIP have run one of the least impressive campaigns seen for a long time. Labour is now  (21 February) 8/13 odds-on favourite, with UKIP out at 9/4, having been at one point 10/11 favourite.

The latest polling seems to suggest, however, that UKIP and Labour are neck-and-neck in the affections of the voters:

http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/survey-predicts-tight-result-in-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30149927-detail/story.html

As the Stoke Sentinel report says, turnout will therefore be key. UKIP voters tend to be older, tend to vote, tend to be more motivated politically than Labour voters now are. Those factors favour UKIP strongly. Against that, the NHS is a major issue, which favours Labour (especially because Nuttall seems to have flirted with market forces in the NHS, albeit some years ago). Immigration, race, and culture is probably a combined major issue under the surface, something which is often obscured in polling by reason of the pervasive political correctness.

All weather forecasts are showing that Polling Day, Thursday 23 February 2017, will be a cold, wet and windy day across the country, featuring “Storm Doris”. That will depress voting numbers in Stoke Central, which is already one of the least-voting constituencies in the UK (in 2015, the turnout was 49%).

On the face of it, Paul Nuttall seems a poor candidate and UKIP a bit of a joke. However, it was revealed during the campaign that the Labour candidate, Gareth Snell, is a spotty and rather unpleasant Twitter troll, who posted, only a few years ago, some juvenile-level insults about women. He also grievously insulted EU Referendum Leave voters, in one of the most Brexit-friendly parts of  the UK.

In addition, Gareth Snell seems not to have had a job outside local Labour and connected union politics, living off his council allowances and expenses.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4219874/Labour-s-election-candidate-caught-sexist-rant.html

One has to ask whether Stoke Central voters want to be represented by such an unpleasant person. We shall see.

Prediction

It may be foolish to predict anything now that the race seems so close, but I am still inclined to think that UKIP might crack it despite everything that has happened. In the end, if Labour wins, Stoke Central gets another and particularly useless Labour MP, whereas if UKIP wins, Stoke Central really is on the map.

The main indicators still look good for UKIP:

  • turnout
  • voter motivation
  • voter age profile

as against which Labour has on its side

  • traditional Labour voting pattern
  • Muslim voters [6%+].

Conclusion

This looks bad for Labour. Either Labour loses to UKIP or Labour scrapes a pathetic fingertips win. If the former, Labour will go into a tailspin and its MPs will be lining up to find new jobs after 2020; if Labour “only just” wins, then Labour’s decline continues anyway.

As for UKIP, only a win will do. A win keeps the UKIP train clattering along its rusty rails. If UKIP loses here, then that is derailment or the end of the line, whichever metaphor might be preferred.

Update, 14 July 2025

Well, in the end, Gareth Snell won the by-election for Labour with 37.1% of the vote. UKIP’s Paul Nuttall got 24.7%, and the Con Party candidate, Jack Brereton (who was later elected MP for another seat, Stoke on Trent South, 2017-2024), got 24.3%.

Snell was re-elected at the 2017 General Election, but was unseated at the 2019 General Election by the Conservative candidate, Jo Gideon, who however stood down before the 2024 General Election (she was then 71: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Gideon). Snell was then returned as MP at the 2024 General Election.

Paul Nuttall eventually resigned from UKIP, which became more or less dormant after that, or co-incident with that. Nuttall thereafter faded from political life until (surprisingly) he made a comeback, having been appointed Deputy Chairman of Reform UK in early July 2025. He therefore is (again, surprisingly), not necessarily washed-up, politically. He is still only 48. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall#UKIP_Leadership.

So there it is. At time of writing, Snell is still the MP, though it is an open question as to what will happen at the next general election. Reform UK may clinch it.

Arguably oddly, in May 2025 Snell married Ruth Smeeth, now also “Baroness Anderson” and a Labour peer (as well as Israeli agent and former informant for the U.S. Embassy in London). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Smeeth.