Tag Archives: Hung Parliament

Diary Blog, 5 July 2026

Morning music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Alfv%C3%A9n]

Tweets seen

The Israeli Jews, and those supporting the Israeli state in countries such as the UK, carry a karmic burden of guilt which, sooner or later, will have to be expiated.

Resign from what, though? So far, Burnham is neither Labour leader nor Prime Minister. He may become both soon, but I doubt that he will last very long or be very (if at all) popular.

That opinion poll translates into a Commons with about 295 Reform UK MPs (over 30 short of a bare majority), 98 Lab (weak official Opposition), 71 Cons, 53 Greens, 52 LibDems, 45 SNP, 12 Plaid [etc].

So a Reform UK minority government, only able to do anything via the votes of the Con MPs. Also, the Cons, Labour, LibDems , Greens, and SNP all having between 40-100 MPs.

A useless Parliament of that sort might help to pave the way for a social-national upsurge, whether electoral or, more likely, otherwise.

[“father was close friend with Nathan Rothschild backed Jewish immigration into England 1922
as Colonial Secretary he pushed Balfour Declaration creating Israel
refused Hitler’s peace offers after France fell 1940
led England to a prolonged, ruinously expensive conflict that accelerated the empire’s collapse
Strakosch (jewish financier) paid his £40k+ gambling debt 1930s
famously said “My heart is full of sympathy for Zionism” in Jerusalem
“]

I do not agree 100% with the second tweet above, but do agree maybe 70%. Europe’s path and the consequences of taking that path since 1945 cannot be laid completely or solely at the door of one prominent individual, though Churchill does carry a large measure of guilt.

Starmer-stein may end by getting an Israeli state burial on the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem, like the otherwise unlamented Robert “Maxwell”.

Bickering, and petty power-plays, and egoism/egotism plays, are the natural situation, until the next historic wall of faith arises.

Ha. The wheel of Fate and fortune is turning.

More music

[Botanical Gardens, Uppsala Castle, Sweden]

An abandoned homestead in Ireland

As blogged previously, in the early 20thC Ireland only had 1% tree cover, which has now, over the past few decades, increased to over 11%, perhaps over 12%. The potential, though, is huge.

The old Anglo-Irish, Protestant Ascendancy Irish, owned old castles, or Georgian houses; many still do. On the other hand, as I noticed when I was first in Ireland in the 1970s, the Roman Catholic Irish who are the bulk of the population preferred to live, given the opportunity (i.e. the funds), to build modern bungalows and other —usually quite ugly— houses, often with little in their gardens beyond lawn. Practical, in that climate, though. Roofs that keep out the rain; central heating…

My parents were friendly, long ago, in the late 1970s and 1980s, with a number of Irish people who lived in the counties around Dublin; they were all involved with racing, or other equine activities, in some way. One couple were involved in training horses, and the husband, whose name I forget (thanks to Google help, I recall now) was Tom Taaffe, who rode the Grand National winner, Quare Times, in 1955. I never met him, but did meet his very charming wife in England; that would have been late 1970s, maybe 1977 or 1978. Sometime around then.

I recall visiting, in 1985 or 1986, the home of one family of that circle; my parents were staying there at the time. Punchestown House, near Naas, County Kildare. The family, Doyle by name, were wealthy Roman Catholics involved in all sorts of business. They also owned a stud farm there.

Their home was a very comfortable large modern house, and what interested me was that, right there, a stone’s throw away, stood the ruins of the original house, 18thC but totally taken over by Nature. No roof to speak of, and no window glass. There was even a big tree growing through the remains of the roof area.

I suppose that English people in that position might try either to rescue the old house (if at all feasible), or build a modern copy. Perhaps, anyway.

Triggered by that memory, I just used incredible Google AI to bring back the detail I had forgotten. I see now that that one of that hospitable couple’s sons, Jack Doyle, an Olympic showjumper sponsored by Kerrygold, and whom I met (mid-1980s) in both England and Ireland, is still involved in all such activities— showjumping, stud farm etc.

Google AI is an incredible resource. I just fed in a few details about how my father and I drove to visit a lady (friendly with that Doyle family) and who lived at Baltyboys House, Blessington, County Wicklow, not very far away, a house previously the home of famous ballerina Ninette de Valois. Our hostess filled us up with Irish whiskey in mid-afternoon, and was very hospitable. I knew no more of the background until today, and now only thanks to Google AI.

Turns out that that lady, an Australian, was the wife of famous racing trainer Vincent O’Brien. I had no idea until today. I thought at the time that she was probably a widow. Turns out that Vincent O’Brien lived mainly elsewhere, in another large house, in Tipperary. I also had no idea that, at one time, one of the daughters of the O’Brien couple also lived there, and was married to one of the producers of the James Bond film, Thunderball, someone called McClory, whom I now see led a very adventurous life: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McClory.

You live and learn…

More tweets

[“I have a regular customer who is very senior within the NHS. She said that racism is massively on the rise, and it seems to be all she deals with now. But, she said, its not racism from white British people as the impression is given in these reports and surveys, its cross-ethnic racism.

There are fractions between different Asian groups that refuse to work with each other, or within African groups that bully each other, or the Asians won’t work with the Africans, or abuse against the East Asians like Phillipino or Vietnamese. And then, of course, the British nurses that get abuse from non white ethnic groups, both patients and staff.

Widespread racism in Sandwell and Birmingham maternity care, review finds – BBC News”]

Multikulti societies rarely if ever work, not for long anyway.

Utter dystopia. Not in 100 years’ time, or 50 years, or 20 years. Now.

Late film-history video

Late music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C5%ABcija_Gar%C5%ABta]
[prehistoric praying mantis trapped in amber]

What Now for General Election 2019?

Introduction and background

I have blogged within the past day about the result of the UK local elections:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/the-uk-local-elections-have-been-held-my-view/

We have seen what happened in those elections:

  • the Conservative Party humiliated and suffering a defeat worse than many (but not I) anticipated;
  • the Labour Party, though losing few seats (82), also humiliated, in that, at this point in the conventional electoral cycle, the norm is for the governing party to lose and possibly lose heavily, but for the official Opposition party to make gains, perhaps considerable gains;
  • the Liberal Democrats, who have not, in general, recovered since their rout at the 2015 General Election (and who in fact did worse at the 2017 General Election in terms of popular vote share —7.4% in 2017 as against 7.9% in 2015— though better in terms of House of Commons seats —12, up from 8), had a “good” result in these local elections, more than doubling the number of LibDem councillors.

Local councillors elected (only about a third of the over 20,000 total were in contest this time) were 3,561 (Con), 2,023 (Lab) and 704 (LibDem); others (mainly Independents) elected numbered 1,310, a large increase.

The totals of local government seats now held (mostly council seats) by the three main System parties: Con 7,615, Lab 6,327, LibDems 2,576.

The 2019 local elections gave the System parties the following vote shares: Con 28%, Lab 28%, LibDems 19%, Others (and spoiled votes) 25%.

The electoral swing percentages: 7% down for Con, 1% down for Lab, and 8% up for the LibDems.

It can be seen from the above that these elections were disastrous for the Conservatives, not successful for Labour. As to the LibDems, their upsurge was mainly a protest vote by pro-Remain former Conservative voters. Not very important. I do not want to waste more time than I have already on washed-up UKIP or on the Green protest vote.

Had the Nigel Farage vehicle, the Brexit Party, been contesting the local elections, the Conservative and Labour parties would have done very much worse, the LibDems about the same (their votes coming exclusively from Remainers and from those who think that mass immigration actually somehow benefits the people of the UK).

The 2019 EU election

It is now too late for the EU election not to be held in the UK. The pathetic “deal” cobbled together (as I write this, not quite agreed between Theresa May and Corbyn) will not be able to prevent the EU election happening. Thus Brexit Party comes into play.

Look at the film clip below. Nigel Farage arriving at a rally in Newport, Wales, on 30 April 2019. His reception is not just warm or supportive; it is ecstatic, an ovation by followers who seem almost to worship him.

Reminiscent of the entry of Adolf Hitler into the speech hall at Nuremberg in 1934, as shown in Triumph of the Will [dir. Leni Riefenstahl, 1935]. None of the substance and depth, of course, but superficially rather similar.

Opinion polls: Brexit Party was recently running at about 30% (2 May) and may by now be higher, maybe even 35%. That figure, though, relates purely to the upcoming EU elections

As regards Westminster elections, Brexit Party was running at 14% a few days ago, but it might well rise, perhaps considerably, from there. Labour is on about 30% and Conservatives around 25%.

Brexit Party is pretty much the only game in town as regards the EU election in the UK. Indeed, if Conservative/Labour do agree some unsatisfactory last-minute and cobbled-together “deal” to put to the EU, i.e. “Brexit In Name Only”, Brexit Party might well do even better on 23 May.

Possible General Election 2019

The System parties are assuming that, if some kind of limited faux-Brexit is presented to the British people, with or without a fake “Second Referendum” or “People’s Vote”, that that will shoot the Brexit Party’s fox. I’m not so sure.

There is huge dissatisfaction around, not only around Brexit (from both main directions), but also around the continuing other issues that bedevil the UK: the continuing low levels of pay and “welfare” (social security), overcrowded rail, poorly maintained roads, the spending cuts of a decade now impacting services such as NHS and police; immigration is continuing on a very large scale, too.

The msm and Westminster Bubble crowd have not fully caught up with what is happening. Look again at the Con, Lab and LibDem local results. Labour did not do well in terms of pressing ahead, but did not much slip back. The Conservatives suffered a really big hit. The LibDems did well mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.

In any 2019 General Election, the Conservatives, under whoever is their new leader, would face a three-front war: against Labour, LibDems and Brexit Party. It has been assumed up to now that Brexit Party would take the role and have the effect of being a spoiler alone. Maybe now it might be more than a mere spoiler. Half the Conservative voters of 2017 are saying that they will not vote Conservative next time. I have already blogged about how that could mean a loss of 100 or even 200 Commons seats for the Conservatives. Most ex-Con voters will vote Brexit Party.

It may well be that Brexit Party can do well enough to create its own bloc of seats. Maybe 50. Maybe even 100. Labour will also benefit from the Conservatives losing votes to both Brexit Party and the LibDems.

I cannot see the LibDems doing better than staying at about the same level that they are on now (12 MPs), but votes for them from former Conservative voters may easily let in either Labour or the Brexit Party, depending on the seat in question. Having said that, it is not impossible that a small number of LibDem candidates might slip past the Con, Lab and Brexit party candidates in closely-fought 3-way or 4-way splits.

So the Conservatives will be losing Remain votes to the LibDems, Leave votes to Brexit Party. It may be, also, that those floating voters whose priorities lie elsewhere than with the EU/Brexit situation will go with Labour.

The Conservatives may be left as a niche party for the wealthy, the smug affluent, the buy to let parasites, the Zionist Jews etc. In a sense that was always so, but other categories of voter made up the weight in elections.

The Conservative Party may be permanently reduced to a hard core of 25% of the electorate, and perhaps to an even lower level than that. The ethnic minorities (except the Jews) are estranged from the Conservatives and are fast-increasing in number. The “blacks and browns” etc vote Labour. Many of the English/British (i.e. white) middleaged and elderly are either disappearing by effluxion of time or are defecting to Brexit Party; only 16% of voters under 35 favour the Conservatives; only 4% of those under 25. Very many of the young or quite young vote Labour or Green.

The msm seems to be saying now that the most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as biggest party in the Commons. I tend to stick with my prediction of 2+ years standing, that Labour will be the biggest party, though without a majority, if an election really is called this year. There is an outside chance that Labour might get a majority, but if its remaining Northern English base continues to erode, a Commons majority is not going to happen.

Notes

https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-what-bruising-results-mean-for-labour-and-the-conservatives-11710446

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

Some tweets

In the clip immediately below (from Sky newspaper review), journalist Brendan O’Neill, with loudmouth “Fleet Street Fox” (Susie Boniface), addresses the Labour lack of success in the local elections:

In fact, there were no less than 39,000 spoiled papers in all! Many had “BREXIT”, “Brexit Party” or Swastikas drawn on them…

https://twitter.com/EddieDempsey/status/1124075048984350727

and here below we see Lisa Nandy MP trying to avoid mentioning that the Labour vote is now at least partly (in some areas, almost entirely) an ethnic non-white vote. Seems that the Conservatives of Smethwick, at the famous 1960s by-election, were right: “if you want a n****r for a neighbour, vote Labour”! Lisa Nandy is trying to say that “graduates” (meaning “the educated”?…hardy ha ha in the era of “everyone gets a First” degrees) prefer Labour. Everyone and his dog is now a nominal “graduate”, who has gone to “uni” and got a crap (in many cases) “degree” leading to (also in many cases) a low-wage job, thus (ditto) leading to socio-political dissatisfaction…

 

Afterthought

My main article, above, says nothing about Change UK, the new party for Remainers and pro-Zionists. The article does not cover Change UK because Change UK is doomed and (as I said in another blog post) all but pointless. It is running at about 4% in the opinion polls re the EU elections, but better (some polls even had it recently at 10%!) re. any general election.

Readers will recall that UKIP had support, at the 2015 General Election, of 12.6%, yet gained no MPs (except for the ex-Con MP, Carswell). UKIP’s support was evenly spread throughout England and Wales; it had no Schwerpunkt or concentration of support in a few constituencies (which is how the LibDems and Greens, both with lower levels of support nationally, score). It follows from that that Change UK, even with 10% of votes (5% is more likely) has no chance of getting anywhere in any general election in 2019.

The significant thing about Change UK is that it will pull even more votes from the Conservatives, already losing votes to Brexit Party and LibDems.

Update, 7 May 2019

In the past days, while “Change UK” has apparently already sunk without trace (and almost nothing is heard about it), Brexit Party is really developing into something. Today, it was announced that there will be EU elections in the UK on 23 May, only 16 days from today. Brexit Party looks odds-on to be largest UK party and perhaps to take most of the seats allocated to the UK.

and nearly 2,000 people (see link below) turning out for Farage and his Brexit Party in Peterborough, where a by-election will be held in early June.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/nigel-farage-brexit-rally-peterborough-16240485

Update, 11 May 2019

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed that if a Westminster general election were called, Labour would reap the largest share of the vote with 27%; the Brexit party would garner 20% ahead of the Conservatives on 19%. The Liberal Democrats would win 14%, followed by ChangeUK (7%) and the Greens (5%) with Ukip trailing on 2%.” [The Guardian]

Update, 18 May 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1128326/Brexit-news-Michael-Portillo-UK-EU-withdrawal-general-election-Brexit-Party-Theresa-May