Tag Archives: Israeli agents

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Diary Blog, 29 July 2025, including a look at Peter Kyle, the rather “dodgy” MP for Hove and Portslade

38 Comments

Afternoon music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enigma_Variations]
[river Severn]

Tweets seen

If so, though, surely it would be better not to mention it, and let the Israelis continue to hit decoys…

Peter Kyle. Member, Labour Friends of Israel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Kyle

See hereinbelow for a more detailed look at that one.

Translates, approx., to: Reform 347 MPs (majority of 21), Labour 139, LibDems 67, Cons 35, SNP 28, Greens 6 (etc).

Monkeyworld.

I hold out little hope for Corbyn’s “real Labour” party. I should place its appeal somewhere in the 5%-10% area, and I doubt that it will be able to contest more than a hundred seats. However, in a few of those seats, it might have enough of a concentration of votes to win; in some others, it will split the vote to enough of an extent to topple existing Labour MPs, mostly to the benefit of Reform UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/29/famine-gaza-israel-war-starvation-hunger

[“Within 48 hours, Jerusalem is expected to make a critical decision: if Hamxs refuses to release the hostages, Israel may move to formally annex parts of Gaza. Unlike military withdrawals, which can be executed at any time, annexation is a near-permanent step. Under Israeli law, reversing annexation isn’t simple, it requires either a supermajority of 80 Knesset members or a national referendum. In other words, once annexed, the land doesn’t come back without a political war.”]

So Lebensraum for American and Israeli Jew settlers, basically, and the Palestinian Arab population “deported to the East” (somewhere), into Israeli Jew-constructed and Israeli Jew-guarded concentration camps which, given that the Israelis are starving the Arab population, refusing to supply medical attention to them, and just killing them outright by shooting them, would amount to “killing camps” or —would the appropriate term be?— “extermination camps”…

I wonder whether the Israeli population as a whole, or the Israeli political milieu and military/security apparat have thought much about what might happen down the line if/when Israel eventually gets defeated on the battlefield? Something akin to what happened in southern Israel in late 2023 but on a vastly bigger scale. When people are treated the way the (Israeli) Jews have treated those, the Arabs, who, pre-1948, owned most of Palestine, their revenge will be bloody indeed.

Talking point

More about Peter Kyle MP, Starmer-stein Labour, the Jews Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein etc, and corruption at the heart of government

“After university, Kyle worked as an aid worker and as a project director for the charity Children on the Edge in Eastern Europe and the Balkans helping young people whose lives had been affected by the political instability created by the Bosnian War and Kosovan War, helping to establish an orphanage in Romania.[3][4][5]

In 2006, Kyle became a Cabinet Office special adviser focusing on social exclusion policy.[4]

From 2007 to 2013, he was deputy chief executive of the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations (ACEVO). In 2013, he became chief executive of Working for Youth, a newly formed charity focusing on helping unemployed youth.[6]

[Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Kyle]

Kyle is MP for Hove and Portslade, by Brighton. The associations are obvious. Heavy Jewish and also heavy gay influences.

Wasn’t Peter Mandelson also involved in organizing youth clubs etc before he became a political figure?

More tweets seen

[“One year on from Southport, our country & children are even less safe and more at risk Our borders? Completely and utterly out of control Our communities? Being used to host thousands of other young men from war-torn nations who are breaking our laws Our state? Now so absurd it is literally importing members of the Taliban while gagging the press Our government? More interested in controlling our speech than our borders and security All this is the very opposite of how a responsible government would have responded to Southport“]

The Southport atrocity, terrible as it was, was merely a tiny fraction of what has happened in this country by reason of the importation of millions of inferior people.

As for Starmer-stein, well…it surely is obvious now (as I blogged well over a year ago, around the time of GE 2024) that he is, to put it politely, in the wrong job.

[Zelensky’s version of Fiddler on the Roof...]

Talking point

From my one-time Twitter account (which was closed down at the instigation of a pack of Zionist Jews in 2018).

Late tweets seen

(((Patron Law)))…

Mark Lewis is both negligent and dishonest. He was “puffed” by the msm to a ridiculous extent during and after the phonehacking scandal about 13-15 years ago.

See also:

Update re. “Mark Lewis Lawyer”— Questions Are Raised…

Pseudo-conservative globalist greaseball Fraser Nelson once again admitting, in effect, that he is a traitor to the British people, their society, way of life, and their future.

Ha ha! Trump really is becoming a little bit silly now…

…let alone in the 1960s… but that was before the UK became the dustbin of the world.

Late thought

On “British” TV news today, impossible to escape the ridiculous “lionesses” nonsense. Pretty obvious why it is being pushed so hard; a distraction from the real UK and real world news. Several different agendas being pushed at the same time.

Late talking point

I think that a lot of people in England are exactly of the same mind, mutatis mutandis.

Late music

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C4%81nis_Ivanovs]
Alt-Right, animal welfare, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, daily blog, Defence, diary blog, elections, environment, Farage, free speech, historical, historical revisionism, Ian Millard, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, Lucas Gage, Matt Goodwin, MPs, Party Politics, Rachel Reeves, Reminiscences and Musings, Russia and Russian relations, society, Starmer, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized, wildlife, Yvette Cooper

Diary Blog, 13 July 2025

44 Comments

Afternoon music

[Lazienki Park, Warsaw, last seen by me in 1989]

Blast from the past

I notice that a blog post from 2016, one of the earliest on this blog, has had a hit, the first for years:

Reports and Lies

Tweets seen

Perhaps if the black “yoots” (aka petty black gangsters) were to stop shooting and stabbing each other? Maybe that would help? Just a thought…

The police are sometimes called “woodentops”, sometimes for good reason.

The main good thing about that officer, as far as I know, is that the malicious Jewish lobby dislike him (because of the much-reported incident involving liar/perjurer Gideon Falter of the fanatical Israel-lobby group “Campaign Against Antisemitism”, or “CAA”): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Rowley_(police_officer)#Commissioner_of_the_Metropolitan_Police

Overall, though, yet another careerist and idiotic quasi-traitor, it seems.

More Israeli war crimes. Every day, more atrocities. Speak out about what the Israeli Jews are doing and also about the link between Israel and the Jewish communities in the USA, UK, France etc. The latter act in concert with the former.

All very interesting.

[“Italian PM Giorgia Meloni hosted Volodymyr Zelensky at the Rome conference dinner – to remind Ukraine of its crushing debt to Europe, L’AntiDiplomatico reports. The dinner, hosted by “the duplicitous Meloni,” was formally meant to reaffirm economic support. In reality, it was a partial reckoning: The debt must be paid – they just need the right mechanism. According to the publication, the conference served as an opportunity to determine who would take charge of reconstruction – effectively seizing Ukraine’s wealth.”]

Irrelevant, because Ukraine east of the Dnieper, which is where almost all of the war damage is located, will be Russian territory before very long.

…and that actually happened, unlike the “German SS officer sniper” in the “faction” film, Schindler’s List…

Incidentally, I think that many naive people think that Schindler’s List, adapted from the novel, Schindler’s Ark, is “history”, a factual account of events, whereas it is actually “faction”, i.e. mixed fact and fiction. You might compare it to the book and film, Day of the Jackal. In the latter, most of the main characters existed, as did most of the surrounding factual basis— the Algerian conflict, the OAS, General de Gaulle, the rebel leaders etc. The story, however, was a skilful blend of real events and made-up events and people.

As a matter of fact, the author of Schindler’s Ark (at time of writing of this blog still alive at the age of 89), was only a small boy in the early 1940s, and is Australian. His book is a novel, not “history” as such.

Rachael Maskell. Think I have not heard of her previously. Looks and sounds actually insane, as Dan Hodges says (and rarely do I agree with him!). She must be mentally-ill. Alternatively, she looks as if she might be affected by some drug or other. Her demeanour is very odd.

This is what Wikipedia says about Rachael Maskell: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachael_Maskell.

On the face of it, not Jewish, and identifies as “evangelical Christian” (like many pro-Israel non-Jews), though I note that her family seems to have been tied-up with some Jewish individuals.

53 years old, apparently unmarried, and has lived entirely, it seems, in areas not much or at all blighted by mass immigration— Highcliffe in Dorset, Winchester, Norwich, and the London Borough of Barnet (a heavily-Jewish area).

Very pro-Jew and (?) pro-Israel: https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-06-13/debates/EAE3C409-8761-4044-90CC-B1A26085D755/JewishCommunityContributionToTheUK

MP for York Central since 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/York_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

56.6% of the vote in 2024, so pretty firmly ensconced, it seems. Let’s see if Reform can get rid of her in 2028 or 2029.

Rachael Maskell MP— plainly treacherous. An enemy of all British people.

Incidentally, in that same 2019 House of Commons debate, part-Jew Ruth Smeeth (now in the House of Lords as “Baroness Anderson”), a proven agent of both Israel and the U.S. Embassy in London, and involved heavily with the malicious and mainly Jewish “Hope not Hate” group, said the following:

“As my hon. Friend is touching on the battle of Cable Street, I feel that I should put on the record my pride that my grandmother spent the 48 hours in the run-up to the battle of Cable Street—she lived in the east end of London—putting razor blades into tomatoes to throw at Nazis. I take a great deal of pleasure in being able to contribute to such an important debate, because the Jewish contribution to British life has had many different forms.” [https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-06-13/debates/EAE3C409-8761-4044-90CC-B1A26085D755/JewishCommunityContributionToTheUK].

Leaving aside the fact that members of Mosley’s British Union of Fascists [BUF] were not National Socialists (I wish they had been, and wish they had fought for European race and culture instead of, as many did, fighting 1939-45 in British uniform against German forces, often in North Africa and then Italy).

Ruth Smeeth is pro-Israel, pro-ZOG, pro Jewish political street violence (members of her own family were also hard-core criminals and gangsters), and here we see her true nature exposed from her own mouth.

Ruth Smeeth has admitted in that extract that she thinks that street terror by criminal Jews is a “contribution to British life”.

With a grandmother of that sort, well…what can one say?…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Smeeth. Treacherous, an apologist for criminal activity and political street violence, and an agent for at least two foreign states. Now sits in the degraded “House of Lords”, and rules over the people she spied upon.

Ecce the “anti-fascist” type…

Westminster is an evil swamp now. Drain the swamp, or wash it away.

More music

[Central Warsaw, mid 1940s. Now all rebuilt. That square is the Old Town Market Square or Rynek Starego Miasta. I myself was there a number of times in 1988 and 1989; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Town_Market_Square]
[Rynek Starego Miasta in a recent photograph; More or less as I recall it from the 1980s. Life goes on, even after terrible destruction…]

Another “blast from the past”

Another old blog post (from 2017) had a hit or two today. I think that the ideas in it still stand up pretty well:

Aspects of the New Society

More tweets

Good grief! What’s happening?! I agree with Dan Hodges again. Twice in a single day. Unglaublich...

I would, had I the political power, “stop the boats”.

How? By shooting down all cross-Channel invaders, and by rooting-out those facilitating the invasion (both on the European mainland and in the UK itself).

I should also “stop the boats” by degrading and punishing the Navy and Border Force (“Farce”) if they were to prove unable or unwilling to do their duty, then by replacing those orgs with another marine force, and/or by “privateers”, i.e. licensed “stop the boats” motor vessels crewed by bounty-hunters.

Further, I would task special forces (or, again, private and specially-licensed bounty-hunters, if necessary, i.e. if the SAS, SBS etc refuse to do their duty), those “privateers” or “bounty-hunters” to be charged with eliminating the gangsters in the EU (France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany etc) who are facilitating much of the invasion. Also, the fake “charity” “grifters” and other pro-invasion traitors.

Whatever it takes. Whatever it takes.

More tweets

Rachel Reeves is very quiet. Must be having a quiet weekend cry at her grace-and-favour bolthole, Dorneywood, despite her not even having been attacked at Manchester Airport.

About time the UK had people, whether on the police front-line or at the Treasury, capable of doing a proper job. At 10 Downing Street, too.

[“Jo White – Labour MP for Bassetlaw (Nottinghamshire). Jo’s husband John Mann (Baron Mann) held the Bassetlaw seat from 2003 to 2019. During that time, Jo was her husband’s office manager. Jo’s journey to becoming an MP herself in 2024 was assisted by donations from the following: £5,000 from Labour mega donor Stuart Rodin. Mr. Rodin has given approximately £570,000 to Starmer’s Labour Party. He is chairman of the Israeli venture capital firm Hetz Ventures. Hetz employs prominent ex-members of The Mossad and IDF. £8,350 from pro-Israel lobbyist Trevor Chinn. £18,000 from Palace Yard Communications. Jo has received freebies and hospitality from the Football Association and funded international trips. With her husband comfortably ensconced in the Lords, her £93,904 salary, expenses and her generous donations, Jo is doing very well for herself financially as an MP. On 9th July, Jo voted for the Universal Credit and PIP Bill that will result in further hardship for sick and disabled people. Jo also voted to stop the #WinterFuelPayment for pensioners. @UKLabour @jowhite__#WelfareReformBill“]

Jo White MP…yet another Jewish lobby/Israel lobby puppet flying a fake “Labour” flag:

“White was born in 1964 in Stamford, Lincolnshire.[1] She has an identical twin, Deb Davies, who was elected as a Labour councillor in Newport, Wales in 2012.[2] In 2022, she stated she had recently discovered their partly Jewish ancestry.[3]” [Wikipedia] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_White.

Every. Single. Time. (almost).

Jo White and her husband John Mann (another Israel puppet) have been freeloading off the British taxpayer for at least 24 years, one way or another, and still are.

Animal magic

I noticed, when I spent about 3 months in Turkey in 2001 (my third visit) how kind most Turks are to cats.

More Israeli/Jewish harassment

More tweets

OK, but where is your condemnation of Jew-Zionist anti-free speech intimidation campaign and “lawfare” (abuse of the legal system) in this country, Goodwin? That is the main repression of free speech in the UK (as you know but refuse to say).

When I was a victim of a malicious Zionist complaint…
The Slide of the English Bar and UK Society Continues and Accelerates
Diary Blog, 15 January 2022, including an outline of the failure of the latest Jew-Zionist attempt to prosecute me
Diary Blog, 16 March 2024, including an account of my recent free speech trial and sentencing
Diary Blog, 17 March 2024, including the aftermath of my sentencing hearing

Who or what group encouraged the invasion of Sweden?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Lerner_Spectre

From the horse’s mouth.

Every. Single. Time.

Ironic, though, that Sweden, which now allows in every piece of trash from the backward parts of the world, is the only country to which I have ever been refused admission; at the port of Malmo, in 1982. The Swedes said that I was not carrying enough money to go around the Gulf of Bothnia to Finland. I was put back on the ferry to Travemunde, a small port on the then border between East and West Germany, the same day I arrived.

I would say “so another traitor speaks“, but of course Sajid Javid is not exactly a traitor, because he is not in any real sense British anyway; an apostate Pakistani Muslim who worships Israel and the Jews, and follows the crazed evil “teachings” of “Ayn Rand” (Alysa Rosenbaum), a mentally-disturbed Jewish woman sometimes called “the philosopher of selfishness”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand.

Bin both “Ayn Rand” and Sajid Javid.

Incidentally, I see that Penny Mordaunt, chucked out by the voters, and who did not get a consolation peerage, is now trying to stay in the career loop via the old “antisemitism” racket, like mentally-unwell sex pest John Woodcock (now “Lord Walney”) and others.

See also:

Diary Blog, 9 February 2021, including an assessment of “Lord Walney” (John Woodcock)
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness and the General Election 2017

Woodcock/Walney was sacked from his government “role” (job) recently, either because he is useless or because he is a pathetic sex pest and/or loonie: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2pddvwgg8o.

…says the fanatical and very unpleasant Jew-Zionist who conspired with the so-called “Campaign Against Antisemitism” and “UK Lawyers for Israel” (“CAA” and “UKLFI”) for years to get me both disbarred and prosecuted. Typical Jew-Zionist hypocrite.

For those unaware of the existence of this blot on the Bar of England and Wales, Myerson was briefly a Recorder (part-time judge) who was sacked about a year ago (though allowed to call it “resignation”) after he repeatedly abused people on social media. Also, his sworn testimony in the fairly recent libel case of Wilson v. Mendelsohn, Newbon (deceased), and Cantor was not believed by the trial judge (who said so impliedly, if not expressly), which must say something about Myerson.

Exclusive: pro-Israel judge ‘no longer holds office’ after sanction for social media abuse

Good news but, by 2029, Yvette Cooper will be 60 anyway. Losing her Commons seat will, in my view, not be anything like the punishment that should be visited upon this would-be dictator, traitor, and expenses fraudster. Still, there it is, I suppose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvette_Cooper

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontefract,Castleford_and_Knottingley(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s

Exactly. Bin the (existing) System parties first.

Late tweets

On the face of it, very impressive.

It seems clear that the USA was induced by the American Jewish lobby and Israel directly to attack Iran because Israel was in serious danger of losing the recent contest, its international airport closed, its ports mostly closed or avoided by foreign ships.

Those underground facilities in Iran indicate a long-term goal— regional hegemony. If Israel disappears, that leaves Iran as sole regional “superpower”, which may be why the craven Gulf Arabs are now effectively satraps of Israel and the USA. They are afraid of Iranian/Persian power.

War with Russia would be mad, but that does not mean it cannot or will not happen.

The real invasion (not the fantasy “Russian invasion”) continues, and will continue— unless the order is given to open fire, and neither Starmer-stein, nor Carpetbagger Kemi, nor Farage and his crew, will ever give such an order. They are all System fakes.

Late music

[Shishkin, The Mordovino Oak]
daily blog, Defence, diary blog, elections, free speech, historical, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, Russia and Russian relations, society, the Great Reset, Uncategorized

Diary Blog, 15 February 2023, including a few thoughts about the SNP

8 Comments

Afternoon music

[Brook Green, Hammersmith (London)]
Diary Blog, 15 February 2022

On this day a year ago

Diary Blog, 15 February 2022

Scottish National Party

As blogged previously, I do not necessarily oppose “Independence” for Scotland, but it seems that many Scots are adamantly opposed, and that either there is no majority for it or only a very small majority.

I suspect that many Scots think “what Independence?” when Scotland would probably still be in NATO (i.e. under de facto American/NWO control), still in the EU (i.e.under EU control), still subject to the diktats of international finance-capitalism, and overall almost certainly poorer per capita.

Still, if a significant majority of the Scots were to clamour for “Independence”, I would say “so go…“, but it really would have to be 60% at a bare minimum; in reality, to make it work, 75% or more.

The SNP had almost no MPs until 2015 [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party#House_of_Commons] and has not repeated that 2015 high despite now being fairly well entrenched as ruling party. 48 out of 59 Westminster MPs, but only 64 out of 129 in the Scottish Parliament, which latter represents a vote-share below 50%, and probably represents also a truer reflection of the party’s popularity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party#Scottish_Parliament_2.

The SNP is even less secure in terms of local councils: 453 out of 1,226 council seats in the latest elections (2022), though that is its best performance ever, and does put the SNP in first place: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party#Local_councils.

Speaking personally, for me the SNP is fake “nationalism”, having little to do with race and culture.

I do not think that the SNP will fall back to where it was before 2015. It has an electoral niche, which is a kind of social-democracy in policy terms, but underpinned by the faux-“nationalism” which sets it apart, superficially, from the other System parties “up there” (I am on the southern coast of England). The SNP of course is a System party. You only have to look at the lip-service it pays to the Jewish lobby/Israel lobby.

The SNP has also been even more repressive in terms of free speech than the Westminster regimes of recent years; Police Scotland has embraced its Poundland Stasi role with unseemly alacrity.

I imagine that many Scots, perhaps a majority, will prefer to stick with the UK rather than become poorer outside it. Whisky, tourism, and financial services cannot provide income enough to support an “independent” Scottish state, and North Sea oil/gas, even if partly under control of Edinburgh, is (arguably) a declining or depreciating asset, especially if supposedly “green” policies are pursued.

In terms of Westminster governments, though, the 59 Scottish seats are important. Without them, the UK Labour Party will find it difficult to form a government (even with SNP support), unless the presently-forecast huge landslide actually happens; such a landslide may happen this year or next but, if so, will not be repeated.

Tweets seen

The trigger for the resignation may have been the SNP’s crazed promotion of the trans nonsense, but Sturgeon was “too big for her boots” in other ways as well, pretending that she was (sort-of) a world statesman and leader of a (sort-of) state.

Nicola Sturgeon has often been compared (approvingly or not) to the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who resigned not long ago. A lazy comparison though, arguably; after all, New Zealand is over 103,000 square miles in area, has over 5,000,000 people, and is a recognized state.

Scotland, though also having over 5,000,000 people, is only 30,000 square miles in area and, though a distinct country historically and to some extent culturally, is not a state, and has not been since 1707.

There is, though, no reason why Scotland cannot be a state again, so long as its people are willing to pay the price in various ways. It is clear, surely, that about half are not.

https://twitter.com/JoshTaylorBoxer/status/1625816294443429890?s=20&t=j8fQd1HlpE30KpSZXLWq1A

More tweets

https://twitter.com/AlisonTissingt5/status/1625816943813971970?s=20&t=j8fQd1HlpE30KpSZXLWq1A

The most egregious lie of “Jack Monroe” must be that, when Grenfell Tower was still burning, she went there (why? 60 miles from Southend where she lives), was “waved through the police cordon” (how? why?), and pretty much took charge (why? She did at one time, long before, have a job at the Essex fire brigade, but only answering the telephone). She also claims to have had the building plans of Grenfell Tower (how? why?).

Incidentally, while (as of today) 502 utter mugs are still each sending “Jack Monroe” between £3.50 and £44 each month via Patreon, her recent book has bombed. According to Amazon, it is selling about 268 copies per month at present, and secondhand hardback copies are up for sale for as little as £7, only a month after publication.

From the newspapers

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11753881/Israeli-firm-sought-influence-30-elections-world.html.

“An Israeli firm sought to influence more than 30 elections around the world for clients by hacking, sabotage and spreading disinformation, according to an undercover media investigation published Wednesday.

Following the latest revelations, Israel might also face increased pressure to rein in its cutting-edge cyberware and technology sector which was spotlighted in another media investigation led by Forbidden Stories in 2021.

It highlighted how the powerful Israeli-made Pegasus spyware had been sold by the cyber intelligence company NSO Group Technologies to governments and used against at least 50,000 people around the world.“

[Daily Mail].

In the old (1960s?) slogan, “Hitler was right“…

More music

[Peder Monsted, Sunset over a Danish Fjord]

More tweets

Might be interesting, but I shall wait and buy a used copy later, hopefully for £5-£10 (needs must…the Amazon price for a new copy is £25).

Incidentally, this semi-dramatized documentary about M.R. James, narrated by the late Bill Wallis in 1995, is well worth seeing:

I am just now watching another, and more recent, documentary about M.R. James:

Late tweets

https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1625408076298833923?s=20&t=j8fQd1HlpE30KpSZXLWq1A
[the sign above that door reads “Wine Hall”]

Late music

[Levitan, Above Eternal Peace]

Alt-Right, by-elections, Farage, immigration, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Stoke Central By-Election: Final Word before Polling

6 Comments

I have blogged twice previously about the upcoming Stoke Central by-election:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/01/18/stoke-on-trent-central-preview/

and

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2017/01/26/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/

in which I predicted a very close race. In the latter post I suggested that UKIP and Paul Nuttall could finally crack it and defeat Labour in a former Labour heartland. That post was written on 26 January, since which date Paul Nuttall and UKIP have run one of the least impressive campaigns seen for a long time. Labour is now  (21 February) 8/13 odds-on favourite, with UKIP out at 9/4, having been at one point 10/11 favourite.

The latest polling seems to suggest, however, that UKIP and Labour are neck-and-neck in the affections of the voters:

http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/survey-predicts-tight-result-in-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30149927-detail/story.html

As the Stoke Sentinel report says, turnout will therefore be key. UKIP voters tend to be older, tend to vote, tend to be more motivated politically than Labour voters now are. Those factors favour UKIP strongly. Against that, the NHS is a major issue, which favours Labour (especially because Nuttall seems to have flirted with market forces in the NHS, albeit some years ago). Immigration, race, and culture is probably a combined major issue under the surface, something which is often obscured in polling by reason of the pervasive political correctness.

All weather forecasts are showing that Polling Day, Thursday 23 February 2017, will be a cold, wet and windy day across the country, featuring “Storm Doris”. That will depress voting numbers in Stoke Central, which is already one of the least-voting constituencies in the UK (in 2015, the turnout was 49%).

On the face of it, Paul Nuttall seems a poor candidate and UKIP a bit of a joke. However, it was revealed during the campaign that the Labour candidate, Gareth Snell, is a spotty and rather unpleasant Twitter troll, who posted, only a few years ago, some juvenile-level insults about women. He also grievously insulted EU Referendum Leave voters, in one of the most Brexit-friendly parts of  the UK.

In addition, Gareth Snell seems not to have had a job outside local Labour and connected union politics, living off his council allowances and expenses.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4219874/Labour-s-election-candidate-caught-sexist-rant.html

One has to ask whether Stoke Central voters want to be represented by such an unpleasant person. We shall see.

Prediction

It may be foolish to predict anything now that the race seems so close, but I am still inclined to think that UKIP might crack it despite everything that has happened. In the end, if Labour wins, Stoke Central gets another and particularly useless Labour MP, whereas if UKIP wins, Stoke Central really is on the map.

The main indicators still look good for UKIP:

  • turnout
  • voter motivation
  • voter age profile

as against which Labour has on its side

  • traditional Labour voting pattern
  • Muslim voters [6%+].

Conclusion

This looks bad for Labour. Either Labour loses to UKIP or Labour scrapes a pathetic fingertips win. If the former, Labour will go into a tailspin and its MPs will be lining up to find new jobs after 2020; if Labour “only just” wins, then Labour’s decline continues anyway.

As for UKIP, only a win will do. A win keeps the UKIP train clattering along its rusty rails. If UKIP loses here, then that is derailment or the end of the line, whichever metaphor might be preferred.

Update, 14 July 2025

Well, in the end, Gareth Snell won the by-election for Labour with 37.1% of the vote. UKIP’s Paul Nuttall got 24.7%, and the Con Party candidate, Jack Brereton (who was later elected MP for another seat, Stoke on Trent South, 2017-2024), got 24.3%.

Snell was re-elected at the 2017 General Election, but was unseated at the 2019 General Election by the Conservative candidate, Jo Gideon, who however stood down before the 2024 General Election (she was then 71: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Gideon). Snell was then returned as MP at the 2024 General Election.

Paul Nuttall eventually resigned from UKIP, which became more or less dormant after that, or co-incident with that. Nuttall thereafter faded from political life until (surprisingly) he made a comeback, having been appointed Deputy Chairman of Reform UK in early July 2025. He therefore is (again, surprisingly), not necessarily washed-up, politically. He is still only 48. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall#UKIP_Leadership.

So there it is. At time of writing, Snell is still the MP, though it is an open question as to what will happen at the next general election. Reform UK may clinch it.

Arguably oddly, in May 2025 Snell married Ruth Smeeth, now also “Baroness Anderson” and a Labour peer (as well as Israeli agent and former informant for the U.S. Embassy in London). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Smeeth.