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Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

A Preliminary Look at the 2019 General Election

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The 2019 General Election has been called, enabled partly by the LibDems and SNP, as John Rentoul, the only System journalist-commentator usually worth listening to, has written.

I was surprised that Labour did not block the vote, but I suppose that, with the Government ready to repeal, in effect, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, using a one-page bill, Labour had little choice but to appear unafraid to address the electorate.

So what now?

It it has been axiomatic, since Harold Wilson pronounced his famous dictum, that “a week is a long time in British politics”.

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[Harold Wilson as Prime Minister, pictured in 1967 on the quayside at Hugh Town on the island of St. Mary’s, Isles of Scilly; the young Millard, 9-10 years old, at left]

Harold Wilson was sceptical of opinion polls. When he was in discussion with Lyndon Johnson about the Vietnam War, the U.S. President asked “what are the polls saying?” Wilson later recalled that he had thought that Johnson was referring to the Poles, and that he, Wilson, had tried to recall recent speeches by Gomulka!

That was then. Since then, British politics has given up the realms of commonsense thinking and has taken refuge in ideological spiderswebs and in the reading of electoral tea-leaves.

The opinion polls at present seem to be predicting a Conservative Party victory of as great as a 150-seat majority. Even mainstream commentators are talking in terms of a 70-seat Conservative majority. To me, that would be disastrous. Nothing to do with Brexit (which I favour). For me, to allow the present ZOG/NWO Cabinet of idiots, traitors, aliens and Israeli agents real power would be a calamity for the people of the UK. I have previously blogged about this: see Notes, below.

I am talking about domestic policy and, to some extent, foreign policy. I am talking about the imposition of an elected dictatorship on the British people. I am talking about rule by a concealed Jewish-Zionist lobby. I am talking about worse pay, pensions, State benefits, working conditions, living conditions etc. I am talking about destruction of free speech, too.

Is a Boris-Idiot government (with real power) inevitable? I do not know. Maybe not, but things are looking black.

The first thing to note is that polls usually narrow towards Election Day. At present they point to a Conservative majority of maybe 60. However, if Labour can pull itself up by a few points, that majority might shrink to single figures. Then there are the other parties (in England, mainly) to consider: LibDems and Brexit Party.

Labour

The Jewish lobby has weakened Corbyn and Labour via incessant attacks over four years. Some of the poison has seeped into public perception. The attacks continue. Only today, the “MP for Barrow and Furness —and Tel Aviv”, John Woodcock, was again attacking Corbyn and Labour, under the banner of which he scraped back into the Commons in 2017, though he has now left Labour amid charges of sex pest behaviour, and will soon no longer be an MP (no doubt “they” will find him a well-paid position). Again, I happened to see “former Labour Party adviser” John McTernan today on Sky News All Out Politics. Sky’s Adam Boulton was too polite to point out that McTernan’s advice proved disastrous for Labour in the past, and also for the Australian Labor Party. McTernan on Sky again derided Corbyn. With “friends” like those, Labour needs no enemies!

Labour’s more serious problems are, firstly, that it is unclear about what it stands for. Not just on Brexit. No overarching narrative. In the past, Labour’s position was a given: the voice of the “workers”, meaning the industrial proletariat, other manual and low-paid workers, renters rather than “owners” of freehold or leasehold property.

In those days, meaning until the 1970s, there was no serious racial aspect. Though there had been an influx (ultimately calamitous, by reason of breeding) of blacks and browns since the 1950s but mainly in the 1970s (and of course later), the percentage of blacks and browns and other non-Europeans was small until the 1980s; there was no constant wave of immigration in the hundreds of thousands, as there now is.

In the 1980s, Labour lost its way. The industrial proletariat started to disappear along with its industries. Immigration and births to immigrants started to create raceless and cultureless “communities”, including huge numbers of mixed-race individuals. British culture on TV and radio started to be overtaken by the Americanized cultural takeover that started in or immediately after WW2. The stalwarts of traditional Labour in the Commons and in constituencies started to be replaced by those who were influenced by the anti-white politics of post-Marxism, by the feminist and/or lesbian “sexual politics” movements, by persons who were unaware of the fight that Britain had with Jewish extremists in Palestine in the 1940s.

Such Labour activists were brought up in the 1960s and 1970s and had been indoctrinated by “holocaust” hoaxes and nonsense, such as the films of the faked “diary” of Anne Frank, of Schindler’s List (many people now think, quite mistakenly, that it is a “true story”, unaware that it was an adaptation of a novel, Schindler’s Ark, which was written in 1982 by an Australian who was only a child during WW2, having been born in 1935; he was brought up in New South Wales).

Gradually, Labour became the bastion both of the politically-correct ideologues and of the careerist “centrists” such as Tony Blair and his wife, both affluent barristers with no connection to Labour’s history (Blair’s father was a Scottish professor; Cherie’s father was a dissolute Liverpudlian TV actor). Labour went from being led by elderly Marxist hypocrite Michael Foot to, at first, a middling position under, in turn, Neil Kinnock and John Smith, then to Blair’s neoliberalism, with the Jewish-Zionist element firmly in control.

Labour lost connection with the “working class”, first because the old monolithic, unionized industrial proletariat had gone, and because the new concerns of former Labour areas (mass immigration, race and culture, poor conditions of non-unionized and precarious employment, sexual abuse of English girls by, mainly, Pakistanis, drug abuse) were simply ignored and, indeed, denied by the Labour Party.

Labour, in short, was becoming, under Blair, what it now is: the party of non-Europeans (the “blacks and browns” etc), of those dependent on public funds (public service workers, council employees, NHS people, those living on State benefits). These Labour voters were ruled over by a dictatorial pro-multikulti Common Purpose stratum, above which sat the Labour Friends of Israel MPs and above all the Jewish-Zionist “fixers” of the Lord Levy sort, who arranged the funding, doled out peerages and other “honours” to the compliant and “liaised” with Blair and his courtiers.

Meanwhile, Labour’s leadership became a cosmopolitan and finance-capitalist clique, “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” as one of its degenerate creatures, the Jew “lord” Mandelson put it. By 2010, it seemed to many that there was little difference in substance (as distinct from style) between Labour and Conservative. Labour lost to the Conservatives led by David Cameron-Levita.

Corbyn, though poorly-educated and no sort of leader, gave hope to the “children of the proletariat” (speaking ideologically: many are from rather comfortable backgrounds). His almost miraculous accession to leadership seemed to be a return to old Labour values: community, nationalization, State funding, workers’ rights. I have blogged about the “Hand of God” aspects to Corbyn’s election, eg his getting exactly the number of nominations required, some of which were from MPs who had no intention of even voting for him!

Labour now is a house divided. The Jewish-Zionist lobby may have attacked Corbyn-Labour, but that is only part of the story. Most Labour MPs date from the pre-Corbyn era, most from the pre-2010 era. Some MPs are volubly anti-Corbyn and closer to a careerist “Blairite” or “Brownite” position, such as Jess Phillips (ironically, only elected in 2015).

Labour gives an impression of being split two or three ways, and that is even before Brexit is mixed into the equation. This plays badly, electorally.

So are Labour’s prospects dead? Maybe not. Firstly, it has the support of the non-whites, to a large extent, though that tends to be concentrated in relatively few constituencies. Then it has most of the public service people. Finally, it has the young. Very few under-25s vote Conservative now, only about 4%. Only about 15% of under-35s vote Conservative. The rub is that younger eligible voters tend not to vote. So far.

Corbyn’s policies on utilities, transport and fares, rights for tenants etc may play well for him, if Labour can get them heard amid the Brexit noise and the Boris-The-Idiot-Star clowning and posturing.

Where Labour is undermined is in its disconnect, in visceral terms, from its former core communities: eg in the black-brown MPs Labour has, some of whom seem almost half-witted. Diane Abbott would be Home Secretary under a Corbyn government…

Corbyn’s lack of leadership is also a factor, as is his asinine support for Roma Gypsy thieves and scavengers and for the horrible “tinker”/”traveller” element. That must alienate millions.

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In the end, Labour now has no real reason to exist in its present form. It is somewhat neo-socialist, but not at all “national”. It divides rather than unifies, because it prefers non-Europeans to the white British people among whom and for whom it was founded.

“I am a socialist, but a white man first.” [Jack London]

The Conservative Party

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1189506699457118208?s=20

The above parody tweet was sent to me by a blog reader. It does rather set the scene for the past decade, the “austerity” (inflicted by part-Jews David Cameron-Levita and George Osborne and continued by Theresa May and now —so far— by Boris Johnson, again both part-Jew…) upon the poorer half or more of the UK, while the more affluent half and especially tenth of the population have been “doing rather well”

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I have blogged rather extensively about the Conservative Party and about its leading members, particularly Boris Johnson aka “Boris-Idiot”.

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The Conservative Party, like Labour, has travelled far from its roots, even far from where it was in the 1970s. The old country Conservatives scarcely exist in MP terms now. Like Labour, the Conservative Party is now packed with pretty mediocre MPs, most in it for the money. In fact, many would be flattered to be as good as mediocre. Like Labour, the Conservative Party has ceased to be representative, not only of the country as a whole but even of its traditional supporters. In the 1950s, nearly 5 million people were members of the Conservative Party. Now? About 140,000. Boris Johnson was elected by about two-thirds of those. 92,000 people in a UK which now holds some 70 million. Only 1 in about 500 adult inhabitants of the UK is a member of the Conservative Party.

The trump card of the Conservative Party in this election is that it is not the Labour Party. It has little else to offer, except the Brexit “deal” that Boris-Idiot fluffed and which is worse than that offered to Mrs May 18 months ago. It is only the clown-image, of Boris the Clown, which, bizarrely, is keeping the Cons high in the polls. That, and Corbyn’s rock-bottom ratings.

So Johnson has once again gambled. The gamble is that he can win more Leave-supporting seats than he loses Remain-supporting seats.

Stress points for the Conservatives? Privatization, by the back door, of the NHS; Johnson’s character; the wealthy getting wealthier, the rest getting poorer; privatized rail and utilities; poor pay; the cruelty of the post-2010 benefits system.

LibDems

Ironically, the key to the LibDems taking seats might be Brexit Party taking away Con votes in the South of England, and so letting the LibDems in. That might happen even more if Labour voters in strongly Con areas vote tactically. I do not have much time for Jo Swinson, a pro-finance capitalist and Orange Book LibDem who pays lip service to the Jew-Zionist lobby, but I have to concede that she has put in a couple of stellar performances in the Commons recently.

The LibDems are pro-EU, pro-Remain, anti-Brexit. They are the only party unequivocally Remain. That clarity has to help them. How much it will help them is unclear. They need to get an across the board 20%+ even to regain the number of seats they had in 2010 and 2005. They are presently polling around 18%, but the night is young.

Brexit Party

Brexit Party has lost its mojo somehow. Its stellar start, with the rallies and speeches and huge enthusiasm, seems a long time ago already. I think that the reason is that Brexit is really its only policy, though others will no doubt appear soon. It is largely “the Conservative Party at Leave”, and people do have concerns other than Brexit. I doubt that it can poll much above 10%. It might manage 15% across the board. Chance of gaining more than one or two stray seats seems minimal at present. However, that may change, but BP needs to start attacking the Conservatives, not forever saying how much they want to play ball with them.

UKIP; Change UK

Both washed up, as I have long predicted. Polling at statistical zero. Dustbin of history zone.

Thoughts

There are 6 weeks to go. In 2017, turnout was below 69%. In 2015, turnout was 66% and in 2010, 65%. 2005: 61%. 2001: 59%. Since the 1990s, turnout slumped in 2001 and has gradually increased again but is still several points below the 1990s figures. If there were an unexpectedly high turnout, particularly among the younger voters who generally favour Labour or the LibDems, that could change the picture completely.

At present, the smart money is on the Conservatives. The smart money was on Remain in 2016, on Hillary Clinton to beat Trump, on anyone but Corbyn to replace Ed Miliband. You get the picture. I do not think that Labour can do well on its own merits, but devotees of the Turf will know that frontrunners rarely win. The election is Boris’s to lose, and he may yet do just that, counter-intuitive though that now appears.

Notes

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-december-boris-corbyn-swinson-snp-a9175836.html

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/07/25/the-boris-johnson-cabinet/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/the-latest-boris-brexit-noise-what-happens-now/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/27/a-few-words-about-labours-chances-now/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/19/brexit-party-the-party-of-nothing/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/boris-angela-and-macron-too/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/les-eminences-grises-of-dystopia/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/06/we-may-be-on-the-brink-of-political-disintegration/

Further thought, 31 October 2019

This is an example of where Britain went wrong during the 1980s, 1990s and particularly under the 1997-2010 Blair-Brown era, and which continued on into the 2010-2019 years:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632457/Luxury-Marbella-home-expert-earning-2-000-day.html

This sort of nonsense has to just stop. Now.

Update, 31 October 2019

News heard on the early Today Programme on BBC Radio 4:

  • Farage has been reported as possibly going to direct Brexit Party to stand in as few as 20 seats, all Labour-held, 2016 Leave-voting seats;

Could it be any clearer that Brexit Party is not a serious party, not even a semi-serious protest party? I think that Brexit Party can probably be written off at this point.

The news, if accurate, does reinforce my previously-blogged point that Farage, despite his people skills, speaking skills and public profile, is not really very knowledgeable or effective politically. After all, UKIP was in the end a big Westminster zero after 25 years of operation and, so far, Brexit Party has underwhelmed. No by-election successes, and its polling for Westminster has dropped from 20% at one point to 12% now. My feeling is that Brexit Party could have gone the distance, but missed its moment to morph into a real party.

The other piece of news so far today is polling that, incredibly, shows

  • Boris Johnson “more trusted on NHS” than Corbyn!

Whatever one thinks of Corbyn, this is just mad and bolsters my view that the UK has gone mad, socio-politically. Already, we have had polling, from a month ago, to the effect that part-Jew, part-Muslim origined Johnson, whose father was a part-Jew who worked for the World Bank and was an MP, Boris Johnson who had a U.S. passport until recently, who was born in New York City, was brought up in USA and Belgium before attending Eton and Oxford, and who even belonged to the wealth-saturated and degenerate Bullingdon Club, “has the common touch” more than Corbyn!

On the campaign trail

The latest Ipsos MORI poll gives Conservatives 41%, Labour 24%, LibDems 20%, Brexit Party 7%, Greens 3%.

“Ratings for the Government as a whole are low, with just 19 per cent of voters happy with how it is running the country, including only a third of Conservatives, while 74 per cent are dissatisfied. Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, cautioned: “As Theresa May knows, a poll lead can be lost during a campaign and this puts the Conservatives at the upper margins compared with other polls. Nevertheless it confirms the Conservatives are starting in a strong position.” [Evening Standard]

If the above poll is accurate, we are staring down the barrel of a Conservative majority of 196, according to my use of Electoral Calculus (I gave Scottish results as likely SNP 50% and LibLabCon 15% each). That 196-seat majority would be disastrous for the UK.

Still, the starting gates have only just opened. All the same, Labour needs to hit hard now. For example, instead of weakly accepting that “antisemitism must be addressed” etc, Labour should start defending the British people; point out that many exploiters and parasites in the UK—by no means all, of course– are Zionists. Take the fight to the enemy and Labour might well find that many many British people want the Zionists taken down, their influence and power reduced greatly.

The opinion polls are proving to me that what so many British people want and need is social nationalism of the right sort.

Below, “Conservative” and, quelle surprise, not entirely English (part-Indian?), judging by photos found elsewhere than on her Twitter profile, freelance scribbler seems to have been living under a rock (or under the protection of a trust fund or affluent family) for the past 10+ years.

Ms. Gill does seem to understand that there is the possibility of radical change inherent in the dispossessed UK young (and, indeed, the not so young). She does not want such change and does not exactly identify what change it might be (“economic armageddon” sounds to me suspiciously like socio-political illiteracy), but the change in question could as easily be social national as post-Marxist.

Strange. Perhaps I was too critical. She seems to take a different and more sympathetic view here (or is it just that she is more concerned about things when they affect her own and personal life?): *click on it and read entire thread…

More

Now this [below], if understood by enough people in their 50s and 40s, might be a gamechanger:

Update, 1 November 2019

Below, a very accurate though totally obvious view of what has been happening over the past decade in the UK. Though I would not want any Jew to be Prime Minister, I did like the way in which Ed Miliband had time for ideas, for policy, and for the results of applied policy; a holistic view. That used to be the norm in UK politics, before the rise of socio-political idiocy in or around 2005-2010, the Iain Dunce Duncan Smith-type of nonsense.

I do not recall seeing this [below] on BBC News or Sky:

Alison Chabloz, Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, David Irving, elections, free speech, historical revisionism, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, The Great Reset, the Great Reset, Uncategorized

The Latest Boris-Brexit Noise— What Happens Now?

43 Comments

For those new to this blog, I shall briefly outline my view: I have always favoured Leave/Brexit, certainly since about 2010. The EU, which was originally the EEC, a group of nation-states in mainly North and West Europe co-operating together and trading freely, has become a monster.

The EU has allowed millions of non-whites from Africa and Asia to invade its shores. It has encouraged that invasion and has attempted to resettle those millions and their offspring in countries and places. The EU permits Roma Gypsy thieves and scavengers free movement from their nests in Eastern Europe to the West. The EU Commission, the body which really directs the EU (the Parliament providing mainly a mere facade of “democracy”), has had its tame lawyers and most of the tamed EU states pass laws against “holocaust” “denial” etc, which echo the laws against heresy and blasphemy promulgated in the late Middle Ages. It is clear that the EU is on a course, planned from the beginning, of centripetal convergence. The aim is a “European” (meaning geographically European) superstate whose controlled and monitored citizens will be largely non-European and/or of mixed race, as provided for under the Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan:

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

At the same time, I am extremely opposed to Boris Johnson and his pack of mainly non-British idiots and schemers posing as a Cabinet. They are just a manifestation of ZOG (Zionist Occupation Government).

The above positions have created a conflict, because Boris Johnson has tried to hijack the Leave/Brexit cause, calculating that, in such a polarized political environment, he and the Conservative Party might count on the support of perhaps 50% of the voters, whereas otherwise, Conservative Party electoral support now only amounts to about 35%, at most.

I blogged previously about the dissonance:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

So now, Boris-Idiot has been railroaded into asking the EU for an extension of time, which he has done, despite his brave words about how he would rather “be dead in a ditch” than make any such request.

I suppose that any other Prime Minister of the UK would have complied with the newly-imposed legal requirement; a few might perhaps have considered refusing to comply. Boris is once again unique in having come up with a schoolboy “plan” to send a photocopied letter to the EU, while not signing it! In what world is that the act of a statesman? It is the act of a naughty schoolboy trying to be clever. Did Boris-Idiot think it up alone, or did his mad adviser, Dominic Cummings (see Notes, below) assist?

In any case, surely it is clear to me that merely failing to sign such a letter in such circumstances does not invalidate the request. To take a similar type of case, if two heads of state or government meet to sign a treaty already agreed in all details, is the treaty ineffective if one such VIP, as a joke, signs in invisible ink, or pretends to sign using a pen without ink? To my mind, the answer must be in the negative. The formal signing is merely the public show. True, in that case, the VIP would have at least mimicked the required act. Having said that, who but a charlatan public entertainer posing as politician and statesman would try such a stunt? I can only think of one, off-hand…

In my opinion, the sending of the letter, albeit in rough photocopied format, albeit unsigned by the person posing as Prime Minister, is still a valid request, a valid request from one EU government to the EU, not from one individual. If the Supreme Court of the UK pronounces upon these questions, no doubt they will first be analyzed in detail.

I predicted from the start, as soon as the 2016 Referendum was held, that the EU ZOG/NWO matrix would work to defeat the intention of a majority of the voters. The idea would be either to remain in the EU or to leave in name only. I see no reason to change that view. The Boris “deal” is no better and indeed arguably worse than that finally achieved by Theresa May. Even “No Deal” would be a scam in the hands of Boris and his ZOG/NWO colleagues. The only difference would be a bias toward the USA and not so much toward the EU part of the NWO/ZOG conspiracy/consensus. The ultimate result would be the same.

What now?

Electorally, this in itself may not harm the Conservative Party. Perhaps even the reverse. The “broad masses” of voters are in any case not only interested in Brexit. What is giving support to the Conservative Party is not anything that that party is doing or not doing, but what Labour is doing or not doing. The weakness of Labour is the main factor. The opinion polls are now all very firmly putting the Conservative Party well ahead of Labour, in some cases by more than 10 points. Unless Labour can pull its socks up pretty soon, it is toast, unless events move on the ground: economic collapse, any chaos via No Deal Brexit etc. Even should that happen, it is not clear that Labour would or could reap any electoral benefit. The Conservatives might, in those circumstances, be damaged, but not enough.

What about Brexit Party? My sense is that it has “lost its mojo”. It might get 15% in any general election held soon, it might get only 10%. Enough to take the gloss off any Conservative win, but not enough to prevent it. One should never completely write off the egregious Farage, but in the end he has had no Westminster success, at least to date.

For me, it is clear that a social-national movement must arise. At present it cannot, because the basic conditions do not exist: no germinal social-national party exists, no revolutionary situation which that party might both exploit and command exists.

Notes

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-choice-is-not-boris-or-remain-you-can-be-for-brexit-yet-also-be-against-boris-johnson-and-his-zog-cabinet/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7592291/Madness-IAN-BIRRELL-finds-one-small-sign-sums-state-divided-nation.html

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalergi_plan

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/les-eminences-grises-of-dystopia/

A few extra thoughts

Twitter is a very unreliable guide to the public mood. If you only took Twitter into consideration, you would imagine that 90% of the population want the UK to remain in the EU (most polls put it at or below 50%).

“Hate”: we hear a lot about “hate” from certain groups, whereas in fact those groups are themselves the chief purveyors of hate:

  • Remain whiners;
  • Jew-Zionists;
  • post-Marxists and pseudo-“socialists”, such as the “HopeNot Hate” and “UAF” crowds.

Not infrequently on Twitter are encountered individuals manifesting all three of the above.

Part of the delusionary tendency of Remain is the idea that people who want out of the EU are poorly-educated, have never travelled (save to somewhere such as Magaluf) and are extremely stupid. I suppose that such ideas bolster the Remain whiners’ sense of self-worth. Sadly for them, their ideas about this are, like their ideas on other subjects, suspect. I myself was once measured at 156 IQ, have a degree from somewhere at least semi-decent, have post-professional qualifications in law (in three countries) etc. I once had a personal library of 2,000+ books, have lived in, worked in or visited dozens of countries, speak a foreign language etc…Should I feel inferior to Remain whiners, most of whom are in every way less intelligent, educated, travelled and experienced than me?

Remain whiners are, in my opinion, often the kind of people who, in the 1950s and thereafter, carefully read books to make sure that how they lived and behaved was certified “U” and not “non-U”. In other words, Remain whinerdom seems to be yet another manifestation of British suburban snobbisme… See, for example, the tweet below

Silly Remain woman comes from Oxfordshire to march (pointlessly) with hundreds of thousands (we are told) of others, contra Brexit. Sees a group of drunks in a pub who claim to be pro-Boris Idiot. That gives her the chance to tweet (the main purpose of the day) about how they are or may be “racist” (which of course would be terrible…). One of the drunks has no teeth. Ha ha! Look at him! What a hillbillie! The woman does not fail to note on her Twitter profile that she worked for the DTI, BBC and Reuters. She forgot to mention that she reads the Observer (well, probably—if she can guess about people, so can I).

As for the “million-strong” march, its effect will be the same as all other large marches in London. Zero.

Also:

Brexit is the Devil, though! I despise Boris Idiot, but smug Remain whiners like that woman from Wallingford have me almost defending him!

Same Remain woman tweeted this:

It is pretty clear that most of the hysterical young Remain whiners of 2016 have grown up a bit, but that the middleaged and elderly Remainers have not quite understood that the times have left them behind. I would be prepared to bet that all those Wallingford Remainers support mass immigration, and fake or other “refugees” as well! After all, those elderly Remainers will not live long enough to see Wallingford (a pleasant Thames-side small town which I knew as a child) turned into yet another urbanized or suburbanized black/brown multikulti hellhole…

Looked at a few more tweets by Sarah Hurst; here’s one just seen (so I was right —see above— give that man a cee-gar!):

Further and minor exegesis

I should add that, while for me it is important to get out of the EU, my main socio-political focus is on the racial and cultural future of the UK and, beyond the UK, Europe (EU and non-EU). There is no point stopping free movement from the EU if the UK is still going to be importing blacks and brown (etc) in huge number. Another point of huge importance (for the UK and beyond) is the necessity for a “cultural revolution” and chistka.

Update, 30 November 2020

The Jewish or half-Jewish anti-Brexit Remainer woman from Wallingford, mentioned in the body of the blog post above, is an enemy of “English nationalism”:

Actually, she is comedy gold, reading some of her tweets. Dual nationality (UK/USA, apparently), and she celebrates Thanksgiving in Wallingford because she spent 12 years in the USA but “cannot afford” to return there (implying that she wishes that she could).

She apparently stockpiles tinned food (buying extra regularly), in which I am with her— it is a good idea if you can afford to do so and have storage space (see also Dennis Wheatley’s memoirs, Drink and Ink, in which he says that he not only did the same in the years 1938-40, in case food was rationed should war break out, but urged the readers of his newspaper column to follow suit).

As to her recent tweets to the effect that Brexit might result in food shortages, the incompetence of Boris-idiot’s government might indeed cause such shortages now. Her tweets are, however, often just unintentionally funny, as when she cries poverty while also spending over £300 at a go in Waitrose.

Oh, and she thinks that Lord Sumption, until fairly recently a Supreme Court justice, is “a dangerous lunatic”!

I have my own idea as to who might be a dangerous lunatic…and I am not alone in that…

That woman reminds me of several things, such as “why are persons of Jewish origin always alien, ‘strangers in a strange land‘ as the Old Testament has it? More than just strangers; hostile strangers.

Also, why are “Remain whiners” also, almost invariably, facemask and “lockdown” zealots?

Incidentally, the woman in question also poses as a expert on Russia. Here is an example of her “expertise”:

If an attempt at humour, not terribly amusing.

More from her? She retweeted this:

Good.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

A Few Words About Labour’s Chances Now

64 Comments

I was so pleased that Alison Chabloz got bail this afternoon (after having had to spend three days in prison) that I nearly forgot to blog about Labour’s recent conference, which ended yesterday.

[On Alison Chabloz, by the way, she is free pending appeal, which will not be heard for months in all likelihood. In the meantime, she can post on her website, sing songs, whatever. It seems that her bail is unconditional. She has now spent a total of 5 days or part-days in prison or in court on the breach of condition matter. That means that even if she fails on appeal (which itself will be another day taken off any time to be served in prison), she will only have 22 days to serve including day of release. So really 21 days. Unpleasant but bearable for her, though perhaps not for her persecutors, who have been desperate for their pound of flesh.]

So back to Labour and its chances in the upcoming general election.

I think that we have to start from the baseline that Labour is now a joke. There always were joke elements in Labour, thinking of that old hypocrite Michael Foot and his “donkey jacket” etc. Corbyn in some respects personifies that late 1970s or 1980s Labour. As I have blogged previously, Corbyn is a familiar English “type”, the middleaged-to-elderly and probably white-bearded “socialist”, with his “Lenin” cap and copy of (in the past anyway) the Morning Star, Tribune or at least The Guardian; to be found at allotment gardens, socialist commemorations such as the Durham Miners’ Gala or the annual remembrance of the Tolpuddle Martyrs, at steam rallies or heritage railway stations. I think of Corbyn as one of those Edwardian caricatures, with an outsize head and a little descriptive and humorous caption.

The picture I have of Corbyn is more the amiable type described above than the Corbyn of the 1980s, of the IRA sympathies and crypto-Communism. Like so many of his type then, Corbyn must have found it hard to reconcile the “Green Fascism” (as some term it) of the Provos with the “social rights” bleating of the inner-city Labour Party, let alone whatever back-of-postcard “Marxism-Leninism” Corbyn may have picked up from his truncated course (he dropped out after a year) in Trade Union Studies at North London Poly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn#Early_life , and then to mix that in with some attachment to the British form of representative Parliamentary democracy.

Again, I have tweeted and (after the Jews had me expelled from Twitter) blogged from 2016 about Corbyn’s rather poor intellectual and cultural level, how he is a poor leader (in fact, no leader at all), and about his cartoon political level: “Jews good, Zionism bad; wars bad except for the war against Hitler’s Germany and any wars conducted by Marxists”; “The Battle of Cable Street” in which “the people of East London” “defeated” Mosley and the [British Union of] Fascists; “!No pasaran!” (and other pathetic misunderstandings of the politics of the 1930s).

It is easy to laugh at Corbyn as a politician or generally, though if he is thought unfit to lead a major party or the British government, then he is no more so than have been others, such as David Cameron-Levita, Theresa May or, now, Boris-Idiot.

As the days go on, it is clear that very few people in this country think that Boris Johnson is a fit and proper person to be Prime Minister. Every day that goes by reduces him as a prime ministerial, let alone statesmanlike, figure. It has nothing to do with Brexit. I favour Brexit. I do not favour Boris-Idiot, who is doubling down on Brexit as the only way to keep a bloc or constituency of voters voting Conservative. Johnson’s Cabinet is entirely composed of Conservative Friends of Israel members, who want to impose a ZOG/NWO tyranny on the UK. Most of them are also complete deadheads.

I believe that, for several years now, the voters have been voting against the party they hate most, rather than for the party they support most.

What are Labour’s positive points for voters? What are the negative points?

Labour has a number of policies which might appeal to those voters not completely hostile: promises to tenants, the young generally, the elderly generally, commuters, those faced with ever-higher utility bills etc.

As to the negatives, well, I did not watch much of the recent Labour Party Conference on TV, but a few things did strike me. I saw a wild-eyed and fanatical young man (in fact he looked completely mad) who wanted to abolish all independent schools (was he a teacher? Good grief! I suppose that that is why the main teaching union is called NUT). I also saw the delegates vote to, in effect, open Britain’s borders to almost all immigrants, as well as keep free movement of labour (in reality, that would include “Roma” Gypsy thieves and scavengers) within the EU, as part of keeping the UK within the EU. They also voted to allow all immigrants to receive State benefits, to work, and to vote.

Opinion polls are strongly against abolition of independent schools and against open borders. Most voters also oppose more immigration. The Labour policies (not yet official) would mean yet further hordes of backward immigrants from all over the world coming to the UK, either being supported by the State or driving down pay levels (probably both), occupying housing sorely needed for British people, using stretched services such as NHS, schools, trains, roads etc. Those immigrants would be able, if Labour were in power, to vote (so no truly British party would have a chance), and to import “family members”, so increasing the non-white population even more. Those would then breed. It would mean the end of this country as a decent place for white British people.

Then we look at who would be in a Labour Cabinet. We have already mentioned Corbyn. What about this absurd drunken “ho”?

Emily Thornberry, aka Lady Nugee (her husband being a half-Jewish High Court judge); the photograph below shows the couple at a Zionist dinner, alongside the Israeli Ambassador to the UK.

EmilyThornberryIsraelLobby

Then we have Angela Rayner, who wants to abolish non-State education, as likely Secretary of State… and what about the blacks around Corbyn? Kate Osamor? She might be in Cabinet (she was in the Shadow Cabinet until recent scandals) if Corbyn can form a government. I blogged about her a while ago, after her son (employed by her at £50,000 a year via her MP expenses) was convicted but not imprisoned for drug dealing. He was kept out of prison because his mother pulled strings. I have heard of “the political jungle”, but really…

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/troop-cartload-barrel-or-family/

and who could forget Diane Abbott?!

https://news.sky.com/video/when-the-maths-just-does-add-up-for-diane-abbott-10860592

This idiot could be Home Secretary soon!

When you look at all the negatives, you can see why even those who hate or mistrust the Conservatives are often now unwilling to vote Labour. These deadheads in the highest seats of government…and voting for even more mass immigration. Nein danke.

The opinion polls are all over the place, and in the past month have veered from giving the Conservatives a Commons majority of 200 right through to Labour being largest party but without a majority. Incredibly, Boris-Idiot is still way ahead of Corbyn as Prime Minister material. Truly, Eton and Oxford are the materials that make stupidity shine! Even unpleasant Jo Swinson is ahead of Corbyn, though!

The Survation poll above puts the Conservatives as largest party but (via Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) a huge 54 votes short of a majority (but with the LibDems on 61 seats, a second Con Coalition is possible). The ComRes poll puts Labour ahead, but even further from a majority: 57 short. The LibDems under Jo Swinson have ruled out a coalition with Labour under Corbyn (a sign of how embedded the Jewish lobby now is in the LibDems), but Labour could still just about form a minority government with the votes of SNP, Plaid, Green and some Northern Irish MPs.

Conclusion

Boris Johnson is trying to weaponize Brexit in the hope that it can be his chariot back to power and with a majority. It might work. Certainly, without the Brexit vote, Johnson is toast, the Conservative Party is toast.

Labour has almost caught up with the Conservatives in the opinion polls. That seems to augur well for Labour in the sense that it means that a complete collapse is less likely despite the contempt in which many voters seem to hold the party. As always in the UK, the FPTP voting system, the contrived boundaries of constituencies and the existence of “safe seats” (a high majority of seats are considered “safe” in most circumstances) make the election hard to call. At present, I think that a hung Parliament is still the most likely result. A majority for the Conservatives is also possible. Labour? Hard to be dogmatic, but their best result would probably be to be largest party in the Commons, with a plurality but not majority of seats.

Notes

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-27/exclusive-snp-set-to-back-corbyn-as-caretaker-prime-minister-writes-robert-peston/

c64bh5xw0aiwygy

…by the way… Indians often cannot do two things

  1. Drive;
  2. Handle alcohol.

Here is “Baroness” Chakrabarti at the “Labour” Conference, proving the second contention…

https://www.channel4.com/news/labours-shami-chakrabarti-if-i-were-boris-johnson-i-think-i-would-resign

https://twitter.com/lenathehyena/status/1176565785994641408?s=20

and other tweeters notice her hypocrisy: Shami Chakrabarti favours abolition of independent schools, yet sends her son to Dulwich College! A bit like Diane Abbott, who sent all her children to fee-paying schools while decrying private education…

Update, 27 September 2019, 2300 hrs

This is certainly going to be a vote-winner for Labour as well as being the only right and proper thing to do. Having said that, most people likely to be benefited (literally) by this policy either vote Labour already or do not vote. Only complete idiots would vote Conservative or LibDem if they are reliant on State benefits; they would be turkeys voting for Christmas. Will others, floating voters not on benefits, vote Labour because of this? Some might, but in my view not enough to be very significant electorally, though I might be wrong.

Update, 28 September 2019

The latest opinion poll published (by YouGov, from work done 3-4 days ago, so not quite up-to-date in a fast-moving and volatile political environment).

That would give the Conservative Party a Commons majority of perhaps 48. However, the two other recently-published polls (see above), which were far more favourable to Labour, took their soundings on the same days as did YouGov. Just shows how uncertain is the public mood now.

I happened to see this, from The Times, tweeted by one of the active Jew-Zionists on Twitter (involved with the anti-Corbyn-Labour GnasherJew cabal) and others:

Of course, the Jews want rid of Corbyn and having been trying to depose him for 4 years now, using every lever of influence they have in the msm, as well as over many suborned Labour Party MPs (eg Tom Watson). That despite Corbyn having paid lip service to the “holocaust” fakery etc.

Having said that, there is no doubt that Corbyn is not resonating as much as he might with former Labour voters. The Jewish lobby campaign against Corbyn has, of course, had an effect, though that is not the whole story. Corbyn is associated with the kind of Labour stances that most English people (especially) instinctively know are detrimental to them: mass immigration, fake “equalities” laws, backward-looking 1980s Labour Party socialism etc.

That is rather unfair (it was Tony Blair’s social-democratic Labour that imported the really huge waves of recent immigration after 1997, for example), but there it is. The people have the instinctive feeling that Corbyn-Labour is somehow anti-British (though I myself see it as no more so —in some ways less– than “centrist” pro-Israel Blairite Labour, or indeed the Zionist-ruled “Conservative Party).

Ultimately, my view is the Labour and Conservative parties are both sliding. A new wave will rise up.

Update, 29 September 2019

…and Angela Rayner wants the voting age to be 16. Well, why not? After all, she herself managed to get knocked-up at 16, so she was certainly sensible…oh, no, wait…

In fact, why not reduce the voting age lower yet, so that the in-school brainwashing about the multikulti society can really have an electoral effect…

This is desperate. It’s just the toss of a coin now as to which of the two largest System parties collapses first.

Update, 2 October 2019

John Rentoul is ideologically far from me, but is always worth reading all the same; probably the best-informed of the System commentators:

Update, 28 October 2019

I saw this tweet (the thread is worth reading; click on the tweet):

What I take away from the tweet, mainly, is the first sentence: many (most?) people that that lady meets think that she is basically silly (and in the minority?) for supporting Corbyn-Labour. The tweeter’s Twitter profile reveals that she is from Leeds, which has 8 MPs, 5 of whom are Labour MPs. I do not know Leeds, but know that it is not natural Corbyn territory: e.g. the highest ratio of private to public sector jobs of any major UK city (77% private, 23% public). Leeds is (officially) 85% “white”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds

Even so, the comments (and those of other tweets in the thread) are telling. Corbyn-Labour is just not breaking through beyond Labour’s core vote, and maybe not even there, much.

From the same thread:

What matters, electorally, is the perception.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

If Food Supplies Are Held Up Because of Brexit, The Conservatives Are Toast

18 Comments

The failure of the so-called “political class”, aka Westminster Bubblers, is manifest more clearly every day. We now know, if we did not already know, that the government of this country is in the hands of incompetent chancers, that the Opposition is in the hands of bad jokes, that the British Constitution is not a finely-tuned machine but a broken bit of clockwork, and that the Queen is about as much use as a human rubber stamp.

Brexit looms, but the fact is that now it either will not happen at all or will happen only in some very vague way (Brexit In Name Only). The only way that it can now happen as a real thing is if Boris Johnson, for reasons of blatant self-interest, manages to get it over the line, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

In the law, a saying was always “justice delayed is justice denied”. Apply that to the 2016 Referendum.

 

Now no-one expected that the UK would leave the EU the very next day. There are processes, procedures, timetables etc. However, the British Government, or what passes for it, should have within a short space of time triggered the Article 50 process, which (under the Lisbon Treaty) gives a state wishing to exit the EU two years in which to complete the leave process. In fact, Theresa May did not even send the triggering letter for nearly a year after the 2016 Referendum; she then asked for extension of time when the process should already have been completed.

Had the 2-year process (it can be less— 1 year, 18 months, whatever) been started soon after the Referendum result, the whole Brexit process would have been finished by the Autumn of 2018 at the latest. Now here we are, more than a year later, and with no obvious closure in sight.

I always said, right from the start, that a huge campaign would be waged by the international conspiracy to keep the UK in or tied to the EU. The EU is a major building-block of the New World Order strategy. The UK is a major building-block of the EU. You get my meaning.

I favour the UK getting out of the EU, I favour Brexit, but the Brexit process has been so criminally mishandled that it is hard to avoid the conclusion that that mishandling was done deliberately.

Whatever the truth of all that, the fact is that the sheer duration of this whole process, which has now gone on for over three years, has not only delayed democratic decision from being implemented, but has denied democracy itself. Now it is said by the Remain partisans that it is so long since the 2016 Referendum that huge numbers of people have changed their minds or even just died, and so it is bizarre to implement the Referendum decision.

That view is not without force: the process has dragged on. People may well have a different view now, but that is in part why the process should have been expedited and handled properly. If a general election were called and held and if then the results were delayed in being implemented for 3 or 4 years, I daresay that many people would start to say “I have changed my mind!”…

So here we are, still in a state of uncertainty. I cannot say whether the UK will leave or (in the Remainers’ propagandistic “transformational vocabulary”) “crash out” of the EU “without a deal”, i.e. on basic WTO terms, or whether some “deal” not very dissimilar to Theresa May’s one(s) will be accepted both by the person presently posing as Prime Minister and by the UK Parliament. It is an open question as I write.

What about the next election?

It now appears that any general election will not be called until October (assuming that Parliament is not recalled until October) and so may not happen until November, or even later.

Boris Johnson wanted to make the next general election all about Brexit. That way, fervent pro-Brexit voters would join with those who would vote Conservative-label whatever, giving the Conservative Party a Commons majority fuelled by Brexit anger. That has now been denied to him.

As time goes by, the inadequacies so obvious in Boris-Idiot will become ever more apparent. That is a major reason why Boris needs a swift election. Time is not on his side, in my opinion.

At present, most of the opinion polls put the Conservatives well in the lead, by 3, 5, 10, even 14 points over Labour. Neither the LibDems nor Brexit Party are at 25% in the polls, though a recent outlying poll had the LibDems close to 20%. A national average below 25% will not change political history.

In 2005, the LibDems got 22%, then increased that to 23% in 2010. In 2015, the LibDem vote declined to 7.9%, and in 2017 to 7.4%, but the LibDems’ propensity to embed themselves in particular seats meant that they retained 8 seats in 2015 and (by reason of Britain’s mad and unfair FPTP voting system) won a total of 12 seats in 2017.

At present, the Conservatives are polling generally above 30%, in one outlier at 35%. Labour is in the doldrums, somewhere in the 23%-29% range. That is very poor, bearing in mind the overall situation.

Present polling would place the Conservatives in Commons-majority territory, though the size of that majority could be anywhere from single figures to triple figures.

The Jews have been on Corbyn’s back for years, and he has (perhaps typically) chosen to ignore the threat from them rather than take the war to them. So he has chosen (along with John McDonnell) to parrot “holocaust” nonsense and the like (eg on officially-marked “holocaust” days), rather than fight the lies and fakery of the whole “holocaust” scenario and mega-scam. Meanwhile, Tom Watson, Corbyn’s supposed deputy, someone completely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has chosen this crucial time, of all times, to highlight yet more “Labour antisemitism” propaganda!

In other words, Labour remains a house divided and in fact divided in more ways than one. That does not attract voters. Also unattractive to much of the electorate is the fact that so many Labour MPs now are blacks and browns. The Labour core vote now is really the black-brown part of the population, together with public service workers (notably NHS) and others paid or supported via State monies of one kind or another.

The white British voters are mostly not voting Labour now: the Scottish ones mostly vote SNP and Conservative (about 70% in all), whereas the English are voting primarily Conservative (42.4% in UK in 2017, but that figure disguises a higher percentage in England itself). It is not that voters generally like or respect the Conservatives, but that Labour is a complete turn-off for many. A vote not for, but against…

Labour however has some good cards to play in terms of policy: rail nationalization, utilities regulation, rights of tenants and employees. It is just that it is not being allowed by the pro-Conservative/pro-Israel msm from putting that message effectively to most voters. There is also the point that, despite the complete unfitness of Boris Johnson for public office, his age and vigour (albeit misdirected vigour) helps him vis-a-vis Corbyn, who is presented in the msm as old and (by implication) useless.

I do not see Labour as coming back, in electoral terms, in most of England and Wales outside London and the West Midlands/Northern rustbelts. Could anything change that? There is one thing. Breakdown of public order and/or resupply of basic goods.

The Yellowhammer report, if accurate, indicates the possibility of shortages of fuel, medicines, even fresh food, if the UK leaves the UK without a “deal” of some kind. If that were to happen, then people would rapidly turn, not to Labour, as such, but against the Conservative government.

There are other nuances: Brexit Party has deflated from its stellar start, and the Conservatives have rejected an electoral pact, but if the UK does not fully leave the EU in reality, Brexit Party, like Antaeus, would contact its native earth and be reinvigorated. That would cut into the Conservative vote. On 15%, Brexit Party weakens, but not mortally, the Conservatives’ chances; on anything over 20%, Brexit Party would cull dozens if not hundreds of Conservative MPs even if Brexit Party itself were to win few seats.

Another Con Coalition?

Jo Swinson, entirely in the pocket of the Jewish lobby, has now said that she would never “work with” Corbyn (because of “anti-Semitism”, she says; but she is completely pro-finance capitalism anyway). That would seem to rule out a coalition or arrangement with Labour (so long as Corbyn heads it); it does not rule out a coalition with the Conservatives.

Conclusion

I should say that, at this stage, despite most polls showing the Conservatives many points ahead of Labour, the next general election is quite open. It is unlikely that Labour can win a Commons majority, but it is just about possible that, if chaos or the appearance of chaos soon rules, Labour could, if largest party, come to an arrangement with the SNP and smaller parties (Plaid, Greens, some Northern Irish) to form a minority government.

A Boris Johnson government with a real majority would be a catastrophe. You might as well relocate the UK government to Tel Aviv.

Much depends on whether Boris Johnson makes major mistakes between now and then. Apart from that, the election may well be dependent more than usually upon…events.

Notes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7458401/Labour-Leave-voters-switch-Nigel-Farages-Brexit-Party-vote-Tories.html

 

Update, 14 September 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/13/criminal-gangs-will-cash-in-on-no-deal-brexit-police-warn

Update, 15 September 2019

The opinion polls are all over the place: Opinium just published this poll:

…which would give the “Conservatives” a Commons majority of as much as 92.

On the other hand, ComRes has published this (see below), which might see Labour as the largest party in the Commons (265 seats as against the Conservatives’ 261) but about 61 seats short of a majority, in which case the only way in which Corbyn could rule would be via an arrangement with the SNP (Jo Swinson having already ruled out the LibDems, who on this showing might have 45 MPs), with Plaid Cymru, Green and Irish MPs in the mix. What would the SNP want as an inducement? Probably more funding for Scotland, and the right to call another Independence referendum whenever they like. I imagine that the Kremlin will be taking a keen interest, in view of, inter alia, the nuclear submarine bases in Scotland.

Update, 22 September 2019

The two latest polls indicate the political uncertainty about: the YouGov poll might mean a Conservative plurality in the Commons, but no majority (perhaps about 6 short of a majority, so not so different to the present situation); the Opinium poll, in a general election, would give the Conservatives a Commons majority of around 156!

Enthusiasm lacking at the 2019 Conservative Party Conference!

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Boris Johnson, A Kind of Coup d’Etat and the Likely Early General Election: Thoughts

109 Comments

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1167432703035236352?s=20

The Brexit mess has become entangled with the straight party-political fight. There are many who despise the Conservative Party who are quite hard-line Leave/Brexit partisans. Me for one. To be pro-Brexit is not necessarily to be pro-Conservative Party, and still less to be in favour of Boris Johnson.

The most recent polling (even more recent than that shown above) shows that most voters oppose the tactical prorogation of Parliament, a higher percentage than those who simply oppose (or support) “no deal” Brexit.

This prorogation feels like a coup d’etat even though, in strictly factual or logical terms, it is not one. This may be because the prorogation does not stand alone. At about the same time as the prorogation has been announced, the eminence grise in Johnson’s wake, Dominic Cummings, has taken it upon himself to sack a Special Adviser (SpAd) even though said SpAd worked to Sajid Javid, who was not even informed until the matter was a fait accompli.

There’s more. Boris Johnson is apparently “considering” preventing Conservative MPs who do not show complete loyalty to him over the Brexit matter (or otherwise?) from standing as MPs in a future (perhaps even the upcoming) general election.

These actions display a mindset which could be called dictatorial or even tyrannical. There are some people who should never hold power, not even so much because they might exercize it in a dictatorial way, but because they would misuse it in a tyrannical way.

The mindset of Boris Johnson is basically tyrannical. When he was Mayor of London and (co-incidentally) large-scale riots erupted, he veered between complete panic and a kneejerk tyranny which included his decision to buy water-cannon, which weapons in the end were never used and in fact could not be used (because not approved by the Home Office for use on British streets). Boris-Idiot is useless in a crisis.

People of Britain….beware. This rootless, part-Jew, part-Muslim-origined narcissist, born and largely brought up overseas, will say, or do, or promise, anything at all to get what he wants, which is (and is only…he has no real ideology or ideals, or even plans) to be in the spotlight.

One can only dread what might happen to this country if Boris Johnson is actually able to have and exercize real power, actually able to pass laws directly affecting the people of the UK and their lives. He is unrestrained by any feeling or understanding of, or for, law, ethics, religion, or even simple decency.

Only one thing stands in the way of Johnson— his non-majority in the House of Commons. It now looks as though Johnson’s plan is to use Brexit to achieve a (misnamed) “Conservative” majority in the Commons. Typically, the msm has got it wrong. Johnson does not want a majority to enforce “no deal” or other Brexit. Au contraire; he wants to use the Brexit situation to gamble on getting that Commons majority, after which he and his pro-Israel, pro-Zionist, pro-finance-capitalist Cabinet of criminals and agents of Israel will start to destroy what is left of the freedoms, rights and public decencies left in the UK.

Not long ago, a few months ago, even a few weeks ago, it was possible to think that the Labour Party might become the largest party in the House of Commons after the next general election. I do not think that that is at all likely now.

The Conservative Party can only get a majority in the Commons if Labour is unpopular. That binary choice —Conservative/Labour— was axiomatically the way things were in past decades. The three-party and four-party politics (if the SNP is included, five-party politics) of the past 10-20 years altered that binary, but have not replaced it.

If Brexit Party, or the LibDems, or any other party, could get above (about) 25% of the popular vote, then whichever party did that would reach the FPTP tipping-point and would have a large bloc in the Commons. Below that imprecise level, and the party concerned either gets no MPs or a handful, depending on the degree of concentration of votes in particular constituencies rather than across the board. The Germans, as always, have a word for such concentration, the Schwerpunkt. In 2015, UKIP had no Schwerpunkt anywhere, “only” 12.6% of the popular vote. Result: only 1 MP.

The record low vote-share registered for a successful candidate in a Westminster election was that achieved by Alasdair McDonnell of the SDLP at Belfast South in 2015: 24.5%. That illustrates rather well the problem faced by non-main parties. The Green Party has only ever had one MP, Caroline Lucas. She was elected for Brighton Pavilion in 2010 on a vote-share of 31.9%. The national vote for Green Party was below 1%. In fact, at the General Election 2017, the Green Party still got only 1.6% (a decline from the 3.6% won in 2015), but Caroline Green’s own 2017 vote went up to 52.3%. In 2005, the Green Party candidate at Brighton Pavilion got a 21.9% vote but that was not enough to win (he came in 3rd).

Leaving aside unusual circumstances, exceptional candidates, fairly equal 3-way or 4-way splits in a constituency etc, a party needs about 25% or more  across the board to succeed. The recent polls (meaning those taken since Boris Johnson became leader of his party) all put the Conservatives well ahead of Labour, in one or two cases 11 points ahead. Not that voters generally like Johnson, but even fewer rate Jeremy Corbyn.

Corbyn not only scores below Johnson on every indicator (except “is he ‘caring’?”), but Corbyn, as “potential Prime Minister”, scores even below the LibDem leader, Jo Swinson! JO SWINSON! What can one say? Yes, of course the Jew-Zionist termites in the msm have trashed Corbyn for 4 years, but that is not the whole story. The anti-Corbyn propaganda has been able to hugely amplify Corbyn’s real deficiencies.

Labour is now a point or two behind, not the Conservatives (they are, incredibly, miles ahead of Labour) but the LibDems! The figures differ slightly, but tell similar stories. The most significant fact of all, though, is not that the Conservatives are ahead of Labour, nor that the LibDems are ahead of Labour (the latest poll, from DeltapollUK, in fact has Labour ahead of the LibDems) but that both are below that 25% Rubicon (Con 35%, Lab 24%, LibDem 18%, Brexit Party 14%).

The above poll would, even without any Con-Brexit Party electoral pact, give the Conservatives a Commons majority of somewhere in the region of 124. If that were to happen, there could, somewhere down the line, be actual civil war breaking out, bearing in mind the kind of policies the Cons would implement, e.g. getting rid of State pensions for the under-75s (the first State old age pension brought in by Lloyd George in 1911 was from 70 years of age).

As I have blogged previously, the Labour Party is now, at core, the party for the ethnic minorities, the NHS and other public service workers, and those dependent on State benefits (excluding pensioners). That is why it struggles to get beyond 30% in elections (eg the recent Peterborough by-election).

The Labour Party, at this time of national importance, is almost invisible. I do not entirely blame Corbyn. The previous ZOG/NWO “Labour” governments of Blair and Brown betrayed the (white, esp. English, Welsh) British people in various ways. Corbyn-Labour has tried to reconnect, but how can it when Labour puts up deadheads such as Kate Osamor and Fiona Onasanya as MPs? How can it, when Corbyn expresses support for Irish tinker “traveller” riff-raff and “Roma” thieves and scavengers?

This is not just me talking. Look at those polls, such as the Survation graphic at top of this blog article. Boris Johnson, Conservative Party leader, a part-Jew, of cosmopolitan origins, who attended Eton and Oxford, where he even belonged to the Bullingdon Club, scores better than Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on “does he have the common touch?”! You really could not make it up.

It pains me to have to say it, because Corbyn is at least anti-Zionist (though cringingly half-heartedly when it comes to the Jewish lobby in the UK and France), but I think that Labour is unsalvageable now, whether under Corbyn or not.

Labour is “socialist” now, at least more than at any time since 1997 or even 1992, but that is not enough. It is not “national” in the sense of “nationalist” (neither is the Conservative Party, but Johnson pretends to be, sometimes). What the voters really, unconsciously, want is social nationalism, but there is no party offering that in an acceptable way, and no major party offering it at all. Hence voter apathy.

Can Labour do anything to salvage what might be a general election as soon as November or even October? It could. Whether it will, who knows? My points:

  • If Labour really hit hard on how the Conservatives intend to attack pensioners via sharp and swift increases in pensionable age, via cuts to old age care, via other cuts to pensioners’ incomes;
  • If Labour really went all out to save its white English vote;
  • If Labour made, harder, the points where it has voter support: railways, old age care, utilities; NHS funding, education;
  • If Labour really went into all-out attack on the Jewish Lobby, especially in terms of msm coverage of Labour itself, but also in terms of attacking exploitation of British workers by horrible predators such as Philip Green;
  • If Corbyn stops being or seeming invisible and inaudible.

I have no confidence that Labour can do any of the above effectively. It is in a ghetto of blacks, browns, NHS employees, and people reliant on State benefits. However, these are its core support areas. If it is thought to have abandoned them, Labour might well do even worse.

Brexit Party is proving to be a damp squib so far. It too is not social-national, in fact it is the mirror image of Labour— “national” without being “socialist”…

Brexit Party is now languishing in the polls, around 15%. Good for a “new” party (really the UKIP snake without its old skin), but unless BP can get voter support somewhere well above 20% soon, it will sink the way UKIP did.

Polls usually narrow before Election Day. If they do not, we could be looking at a very solid Conservative Party majority and so a government which, even in advance, is making some of its own MPs uneasy… However, if Labour can somehow recover from 21%-24% to somewhere around 30%, then we may be back to more or less where we are today, a minority Conservative government.

There is an outside chance that, from the desperation of the 30% of eligible voters who do not vote, there might come a surprise anti-Conservative upsurge at the last minute.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alasdair_McDonnell

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Pavilion_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#Results

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/schwerpunkt

Even former Labour Party candidates have not only abandoned Labour but are looking not unkindly upon “one nation” traditional Conservatism!

https://twitter.com/remainwithkate/status/1167366602217742336?s=20

https://twitter.com/_IanMoss/status/1167369085346299904?s=20

https://twitter.com/remainwithkate/status/1167370282971123712?s=20

Meanwhile… a fine example of the Westminster Bubble: a few thousand (thousands, or hundreds?) of demonstrators make noise around the Palace of Westminster, achieve nothing, change nothing, but go home with the delusionary warm feeling that they have…and ITV News reports on it as if at the Storming of the Bastille!

https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1168077918896943105?s=20

These people would, most of them, never throw a stone, let alone a Molotov Cocktail, and they think that they will rattle what is now a near-tyrannical Boris-Idiot government? They will not even rattle the windows of the nearest Waitrose cafe!

Look again at that tweet, above, by one Paul Brand of ITV [nb: since posting of this article, apparently deleted]: “Traffic has been brought to a standstill.” No! Traffic brought to a standstill? At one roundabout in Central London? Call out the Preobrazhensky and Izmailovsky Guards! Notify the Tsar!

More. Here is Katie Hopkins, making a good point about how unrepresentative the Remain side is, though her point about the ethnic minorities could be made equally in relation to the Leave side. Also few blacks and browns. That, in a way, is why the international conspiracy (NWO/ZOG) is encouraging mass invasion of white Europe by blacks and browns (The Great Replacement), because most of the ethnic minorities cannot organize and will not stand up for what we have known as civil rights and freedoms.

https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1168066456497598464?s=20

Of course, Ms. Hopkins supports Israel, so naturally supports Boris-Idiot…

https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1167789420029849600?s=20

Where the opinion polls have been since late last year:

Update, 3 September 2019

A stray tweet seen; if true, may be ominous for “Labour”:

https://twitter.com/DavidStonehous7/status/1168591927081656321?s=20

Meanwhile…

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-prorogue-parliament-brexit-dominic-cummings-email-court-scotland-a9089911.html

Update, 4 September 2019

The above opinion poll, if accurate and if mirrored on Election Day, would be a Conservative Party majority in the Commons of about 92…

Look at the scheiss that entered Parliament in 2010 and 2015, and imagine what another 100 Con MPs might be like. “Load up, load up…”

Update, 8 September 2019

Update, 8 October 2019

Boris Johnson, Brexit, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, Conservative Friends of Israel, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, the Great Reset, Uncategorized

Boris, Angela, and Macron too

123 Comments

Tales of Brexit and Biarritz

We have now seen the political theatre playing what seems to be somewhere between comedy and tragedy, or perhaps an unfunny farce. The talking heads and “experts” of the msm have been scrabbling for meaning amid the obfuscation and posturing. Some “newspapers” have even resorted to “experts” in “body language”:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7380561/Boris-twitchy-anxious-veneer-cordiality-says-body-language-expert-JUDI-JAMES.html

Where does the truth lie? Where does Boris-Idiot lie? Everywhere and non-stop?

I find it infuriating to see, on every news broadcast, that part-Jew public entertainer posing as and (literally) playing the part of Prime Minister of this country. A total charlatan.

We now keep hearing the question, as in the TV game show, “Deal or No Deal?”, and, as in that silly but somehow addictive TV show, there is no skill involved. One just opens all the boxes to see what is inside. No skill, but much calculation as to one’s own best bet. In the case of The Boris-Idiot Show, we should ignore the flim-flam of the “head to heads” with what now are supposed to be “world leaders”. All that Boris-Idiot is considering is his own position and ambition; and was there ever in British politics such an empty ambition?

What After 31 October?

Even more than David Cameron-Levita, this latest ZOG figurehead has no real plans for the people of the UK, no interest in their lives or how to improve Britain’s place in the world. All he wants to do is to be seen as Prime Minister and show off. To that end, his girlfriend has cleaned him up and tidied him up a bit, told him to cut down on the rote-learned classical Greek and Latin and the silly obscure English words from the OED, and tutored him in how to appear, even if briefly, “prime ministerial”.

As noted, Boris-Idiot is the most ZOG [Zionist Occupation Government] Prime Minister ever, and his Cabinet is the most Jewish and Zionist ever, despite the fact that most of them are not Jewish, nor even part-Jew. All (as far as I know) are members of Conservative Friends of Israel. All are also extreme finance-capitalist by ideology, though few if any have ever run a successful private business (unless you include the scams of Grant Shapps etc). They want to destroy the few rights that British citizens have qua employee or otherwise for that matter (eg free speech rights).

Johnson does in fact not much care whether “deal or no deal”, so long as the mass media narrative plays well for him. If “no deal”, then “Boris” plays the Poundland Churchill, standing up for lonely isolated Britain against the EU bullies. If the EU offers enough so that Boris-Idiot can present it as some kind of “breakthrough”, then he can play the role of popular returning Chamberlain, waving his piece of paper and proclaiming “peace in our time with the EU”.

The above two characterizations may seem facile, but that is the level Boris-Idiot is on. He has no serious political or ideological position; it is all showy nothingness, relying on simplistic formulae, 1950s or 1960s boys’ comic-paper cartoons about standing up for Britain etc, and on fooling people too stupid or uninformed to see through what is essentially a con-act. That applies to Brexit too.

I myself favour Brexit, favoured Leave in 2016 and still do, but the Brexit process was criminally mishandled by a load of idiots in the Conservative government(s), possibly deliberately, and so now we career into uncertainty.

At first, Boris was pro-EU, pro-Remain, then “sceptical” (as public opinion moved), then pro-Leave, then voted in Cabinet (during his disastrous months posing as Foreign Secretary) for Theresa May’s “deal”, then he decided that his political future would be better served by acting the part of the “battling Brexiteer”, which meant that, out of 65 million UK inhabitants, the 92,000 Conservative Party members who preferred Leave to Remain (or “Brexit In Name Only” and so Boris-Idiot to Jeremy Hunt) in effect appointed the idiot as Prime Minister, with no popular validation as yet.

If Boris thinks that he can fool people into thinking that he has “achieved” a “better deal” than the Theresa May one, he will take it, knowing that many in the UK are now uneasy at what lies ahead. That also has the advantage for Johnson that he will not have to actually organize the UK and/or try to negotiate trade agreements with other states, something at which he has no experience and probably no aptitude.

If Boris cannot get enough from the EU to fool the public, then the Poundland Churchill will reappear, taking the UK out of the EU on the WTO/No Deal basis. Simple as that. There is no thought either way for what is best for the UK and its people. Everything is “what is best for 1. Boris Johnson and (far behind…) 2. The Conservative Party?”

What will happen if a UK general election happens soon after 31 October 2019? To my mind, Boris-Idiot will have to call one fairly soon, before the economy worsens and before he is fully-exposed as being completely incompetent for his present (or any) office.

Brexit Party is key. If the UK stays formally in the EU, via an extension or otherwise, the Brexit Party will stand 650 candidates, win some seats but more importantly, prevent the Conservative Party from winning dozens and possibly 100+. That would very likely mean that the Con Party will not even be largest party in the Commons.

What if the UK does leave the EU on or before 31 October? If that happens via some stitch-up deal and is in fact Brexit In Name Only (BRINO), Brexit Party will still stand those candidates with hope of a high vote-share.

That only leaves “no deal” or “WTO” Brexit. If that happens, and if it happens without chaos, or before absolute chaos and/or economic recession ensues, then Boris the Poundland Churchill can say to Farage and Brexit Party that they should stand down their troops. Like a Pacific salmon, Farage has spawned and can now die having fulfilled his mission. Will Farage do that? If so, or maybe even if he does not, Brexit Party might have little impact on the Conservative vote, if the UK is seen to have truly left the EU. However, it might still impact the Con vote (if Brexit Party can, ironic as it would be, distance itself from Brexit as sole issue, and seek votes on a wider basis…). It is a gamble. Boris-Idiot is a gambler, a chancer.

Never has the Labour Party been lower in public esteem or public support. Not all Corbyn’s fault. The Jews have mounted an attack on Corbyn for 4 years. Some of the mud has stuck. There are other factors. Corbyn and his allies have not really stood up to the Jew-Zionists. They have continued to parrot support for the “holocaust” fakery etc. There is also the “deadhead” nature of most of the Labour MPs around Corbyn (or not). Blacks and browns prominent, but also some of the English ones. Think Kate Osamor. Think Diane Abbott. The whole package is not electorally appealing beyond the ethnic minorities, beyond some of the public service people, beyond those reliant on State benefits and pensions.

I was until recently convinced that Labour would end up as largest Commons bloc after a 2019/2020 general election. Now? I cannot say with any confidence. That might still happen. Alternatively, the Conservatives might be largest bloc, as now, but with fewer MPs. There is now even a small chance (God forbid) that, in the absence of a popular Opposition, and in the possible absence or effective absence of Brexit Party, the Conservative Party might win a majority in the Commons. Boris Johnson might just survive as Prime Minister against the odds (and against merit), and with real power.

If that were to happen, the future really would be cast into the hazard.

Update, 20 October 2021

Having noticed that the blog post has had a few hits today and in recent days, I felt that I should update it.

Well, I was more or less right. “Boris” played the Poundland Chamberlain in the end. He then (as I predicted) called a swift General Election which, in December 2019, gifted him and the risibly misnamed “Conservatives” with an 80-seat majority, which the msm proclaimed to be a “landslide victory”, despite the fact that the Conservative Party popular vote scarcely increased on its 2017 showing.

The factors which propelled a clown (a sinister clown) into power by rigged “popular acclamation” were twofold, basically: the key factor was the collapse of the Labour Party popular vote from 40% (2017) to about 32% (2019); the second factor of importance was that political snake-oil  salesman, Nigel Farage, cynically sabotaged his own Brexit Party, then unilaterally decided to stand down most of its candidates. In the circumstances, amid the Brexit kefuffle, that all but guaranteed a Conservative party victory, though the extent of it must have been beyond the wildest dreams of both part-Jew “Boris” and the Jewish lobby (which was desperate to do down Corbyn)…

Since the 2019 General Election, “Boris” has of course brought in quasi-dictatorial laws giving his Friends of Israel regime wide-ranging social and police powers, all on the back of the 2020-2021 “Covid-19” “panicdemic”. A story, at time of writing, still unfolding.

Brexit, elections, immigration, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized

The EU Is On The Way Out

12 Comments

Introduction

My attention was caught by this tweet [below], posted by the political scientist Matthew Goodwin (who used to block me on Twitter, I think, but we’ll say no more about that for now).

In Germany, the economy is contracting. For the first time (as far as I know) since 1945, Germany is doing worse economically than the present Eurozone states as a whole are doing (and they are not doing well either). In Italy, the League (formerly Northern League) has a plurality of support. Italy is now actively standing against the attempt of the international conspiracy to flood Europe with blacks and browns.

Discussion

A few years ago, it seemed possible that the EU was going to collapse politically:

CtnA-SlXEAQNZuu

Now, that seems less likely, at least in the short term and on the surface, if only because the System parties and politicians across Europe are hunkering down to protect “their” project (the EU-superstate NWO/ZOG project) out of which those parties and individuals have done so well for themselves. In addition, most of the insurgent parties are at present trying to destroy the EU from within, or to alter it radically, rather than pushing for their home states to exit the EU.

Britain is a major part of the EU not only because of its economic strength (even now), but also because the UK is the ideological, attitudinal, military halfway house between the mainland of Europe and the USA.

If Britain leaves the EU on WTO terms, the economic damage to the UK will be real, but do not underestimate the damage to the EU itself. The EU project is on a knife-edge both politically and economically. Brexit might well push the EU over the edge, especially now that the world economy as a whole is slowing. The EU may not “officially” fall to pieces for a while, but in reality it is like a tree, the trunk of which has been cut through, but which has not yet crashed to the ground.

Conclusion

We are looking at the resurgence, not far down the line, of the core peoples of Europe. I am not talking about “civil war” as experienced by people in recent decades or centuries. We are looking at culture war, socio-economic war, race war, religious war, all tied up together, entangled. This may continue for decades once it starts. Out of it may emerge, in the end, a society of a different kind altogether. God mote it be!

Afterthought

As far as the UK domestic political situation is concerned, we see attempts within the pathetic and incompetent British “political class” to stop “no-deal” Brexit. If one or other such attempt succeeds, then the major System parties are toast, first and foremost the Conservative Party. Brexit Party will challenge all Conservative MPs at the next, perhaps very soon, general election. That must unseat many of them, perhaps most of them. A Conservative Party of little more than 100 MPs is now a realistic possibility. As to Labour, its core vote now cannot be much higher than 25%. Brexit Party may not get more than a few dozen MPs in the short term, but it has the possibility of changing the face of British politics forever by weakening and perhaps destroying the two main System parties, now seen as colossi on legs of straw.

Notes

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7365809/PETER-OBORNE-Red-lights-flashing-economic-hurricane-coming-scared.html

Update, 10 June 2020

Well, now we know that there was a General Election (in December 2019). In that campaign, Nigel Farage stabbed his own party, Brexit Party, in the back, by standing down all Brexit Party candidates who were standing against Conservative candidates. This all but guaranteed a Conservative Party victory.

It now seems even less likely than before that the UK will leave the EU in reality. We have the much-discussed BRINO, Brexit In Name Only, maybe for years, in most respects. However, we now have an unexpected aspect: Coronavirus. This, or rather the panicky shutdown of several countries’ economies by their own governments, has placed the EU in even more of a pickle. Watch this space.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, by-elections, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, elections, Jewish lobby in UK, MPs, Party Politics, society, Uncategorized

Could the LibDems Win A General Election in 2019-2020?

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Background

Nearly eight years ago, when I still had a Twitter account (read “before the Jew-Zionists prevailed upon Twitter to expel me”), I tweeted that the LibDems were finished. At that time, around 2011, the height of the Con Coalition, the LibDem careerists were signing up to pretty much everything required of them by the misnamed “Conservatives”. In fact, even now in 2019, new tales come to light about how totally supine the LibDems in coalition were: recently, for example, it was revealed that the LibDems agreed to screw down harder on the sick and disabled in return for a 5p tax on plastic shopping bags.

The public were so disgusted by the LibDems 2010-2015 that the LibDem support and vote in the country hit almost rock-bottom in 2015. The 2010 general election had seen so-called “Cleggmania” and a popular vote of 23%, resulting in 57 House of Commons seats. In fact, that 23% was only 1 point above the level achieved in 2005 under the LibDems’ former (1999-2006) leader, Charles Kennedy; the LibDems in 2010 had 5 fewer seats than they had in 2005.

Naturally, the UK’s unfair First Past The Post [FPTP] political system left the LibDems with far fewer Commons seats than they “deserved” by reference to their popular vote. 23% of the 2010 popular vote “should” have given the LibDems about 150 MPs, not 57.

The 2010 hung Parliament result gave the LibDems their chance to demand proportional representation, instead of which their leadership (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander and David Laws, mainly) accepted from the Conservative Party leader, David Cameron-Levita, the mere promise of a referendum on Alternative Vote [AV], a halfway house between FPTP voting and proportional representation [PR].

Gordon Brown, on behalf of Labour, the then Prime Minister, was willing to offer the LibDems immediate AV, via a new law to be passed by Labour and LibDem MPs, but the LibDems instead (and to my mind inexplicably) chose the Conservative offer of a mere referendum on AV over the Labour offer of immediate AV. When they did that, it was already clear that the LibDems (so called “Orange Book” LibDems, meaning pro-finance capitalist LibDems) much preferred to make common cause with the Conservatives.

This “Orange Book” “liberalism” underpinned what the LibDems did in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015. The “Orange Book” itself took the LibDems far from the positions of the old Liberal Party and even from those of the LibDem party itself during the time when it was in the hands of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy.

The authors of the Orange Book favoured socio-political positions not far from those of leading members of the Conservative Party post-2000: effectively anti-Welfare State, pro-business, socially-judgmental, favouring so-called “choice” etc.

It is striking how many of the Orange Book authors have, in the years since its publication, been hit by scandal:

  • David Laws: found to have cheated on his Parliamentary expenses to the tune of about £40,000; many thought him fortunate not to have been prosecuted for fraud;
  • Chris Huhne: prosecuted and imprisoned for the very silly crime of perversion of the course of justice relating to a speeding offence [cf. Fiona Onasanya];
  • Mark Oaten, exposed as a coprophiliac and user of “rent boys”; since when Oaten has represented the International Fur Trade Federation, a largely Jewish body despised by animal-lovers worldwide. Oaten was also a supporter of fox-hunting.

“Only” three, but three out of only nine LibDems who wrote the Orange Book (Oaten admitted that in fact his research assistant had written his, Oaten’s, designated chapter, and that he, Oaten, had not even read that chapter, let alone the rest of the book). Of the other LibDems involved, Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg both lost their Commons seats in 2015 and 2017 respectively, gratefully then accepting lucrative directorships from transnational finance-capitalist companies.

The LibDem fortunes since the days of the Con Coalition

The LibDem popular vote crashed in 2015, sliding from its 2010 level of 23% to only 7.9%. MP numbers were slashed from 57 to 8.

In 2017, the LibDem popular vote slumped further, to 7.4%, though by the quirk of the FPTP voting system combined with the way boundaries are drawn, the LibDems actually managed to increase the number of LibDem MPs from 8 in 2015 to 12 in 2017.

The present situation

Nick Clegg took the Zuckerberg shilling (or should that be million?) and became an apologist for Facebook. He was replaced by Tim Farron, someone who was from an earlier, Nonconformist tradition within the LibDems and their ancestor-party, the Liberals. For example, “Farron was one of only two Liberal Democrat MPs to vote against the under-occupancy penalty (also known as the bedroom tax) in 2012.” [Wikipedia]. Farron was in the anti-Orange Book Beveridge Group [see Notes, below].

In 2017, Farron in turn was replaced by another Orange Book author, Vince Cable. Then, in 2019, Jo Swinson took the reins. She, though very much of the Orange Book persuasion, is more identified publicly with “socially liberal” than with “fiscally conservative” positions. Jo Swinson held the positions of PPS, and then Business Minister, during the Con Coalition period, but has managed to escape too great an identification with the social policies of the Coalition. Surprising, really, in that she

  • “Almost always voted for reducing housing benefit for social tenants deemed to have excess bedrooms (which Labour describe as the “bedroom tax”)”;
  • “Consistently voted against raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices”;
  • “Consistently voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability”;
  • “Consistently voted for making local councils responsible for helping those in financial need afford their council tax and reducing the amount spent on such support”;
  • “Almost always voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits“;
  • “Almost always voted for reducing the rate of corporation tax“

[see: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11971/jo_swinson/east_dunbartonshire/votes]

I have to say that I have always seen Jo Swinson as a ghastly bitch, who, like her husband (Duncan Hames, also a LibDem MP from, in his case only, 2010 to 2015) has been mainly a careerist type in politics; in Jo Swinson’s case, her brief period in provincial commerce before 2005 can only be seen as underwhelming, at best.

My view of Jo Swinson is, admittedly, mainly a personal impression based on what I have seen on TV etc. Her voting record on domestic UK issues must give pause, though, to those who see her as enlightened, socially compassionate etc.

Jo Swinson is a LibDem leader who does not frighten the Conservative horses. That could be key. In 2017, there were, if memory serves, 35 seats where the LibDems were in close 2nd place; there were many others where the LibDem was in close 3rd place. Most of those are Conservative-held seats. The implication is clear: if Brexit Party weakens an already-flagging Conservative vote, scores of (mainly) Conservative seats could fall, many to the LibDems. The Brexit Party is a major factor here.

Then we have the Remain vote. About 48% of the UK, famously, voted Remain. All three System parties were split in the 2016 Referendum, but the LibDems less so than the other two. As a party, the Conservative Party is now seen as basically Leave; the Labour Party is seen as sitting on the fence. That leaves the LibDems as the sole unalloyed Remain party. How that translates into votes and then into seats is another question. For one thing, people are likely to vote in any 2019/2020 general election on various issues, not only Brexit. However, Brexit is probably the one leading issue at time of writing.

The British electoral system is a bad joke. We know that a simple matter such as how the boundaries are drawn can alter everything:

c64bh5xw0aiwygy

In 2022, new boundaries will come into effect, along with the reduction of MP numbers to 600 (from the present 650). The Conservatives will be far less affected than Labour and the LibDems. It has been suggested that the LibDems will be all but wiped out by those changes. Perhaps, but any 2022 or later general election is still at least 2-3 years away. We are looking at the very strong likelihood of a general election within maybe only 2-3 months or so. The Conservatives would like to wait longer, but how can they, when they have a majority of one or none?

Boundaries and other factors make the popular vote indeterminative. In 2005, Labour’s popular vote was 35.2%, and the Conservative vote was not far behind (32.4%), yet Labour ended up with 355 MPs, while the Conservatives won only 198!

If the LibDems can gather to their banner the bulk of the votes of those for whom the number one issue is Brexit and for whom Remain is the only way to go, and then add those votes to the LibDem core support (which may be as low as 7%), then it is not impossible to conceive of the idea of the LibDems under Jo Swinson getting a vote at least as high as Charles Kennedy’s 22% or Nick Clegg’s 23%, and possibly even higher. As against that, many voters will not support the LibDems under any circumstances, either because the party is pro-EU Remain, or because it is seen as weak on immigration (but are the other two System parties any better?) or because most voters remember the LibDems as doormats for the Conservatives during 2010-2015.

In order to form the largest bloc in the House of Commons, the LibDems would have to get a popular vote in the region of 35% or 34%, both Lab and Con getting below 30%. Even then, the LibDems would be or might be at least 100 seats short of a majority.

As I have blogged previously, I do not think in terms of a LibDem surge, but more a concatenation of circumstances —LibDems as sole Remain party, weakening of Conservative vote because of Brexit Party, disenchantment with Labour— drawing votes away from the other parties and so to the LibDems. LibDems as largest Commons bloc? Unlikely but, now, not totally impossible.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Orange_Book:_Reclaiming_Liberalism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Oaten#Scandal_and_resignation

https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Susan_Kramer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8508098/David-Laws-broke-the-rules-and-must-pay-a-price.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Laws

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Expenses_claims

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Criminal_conviction

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Farron

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beveridge_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Cable

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Swinson

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 13 September 2019

Well…

So there it is: Jo Swinson could never work with (be in coalition with? proffer “confidence and supply” to?) Jeremy Corbyn and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

It’s against her “principles” to support any criticism of Jews or Israel, it seems. Pity that her principles did not extend to refusing to work with evil part-Jew manipulators such as George Osborne and David Cameron-Levita. She and most of the LibDem MPs voted for all or most of the measures which for a decade have demonized, impoverished and actually killed sick, disabled and poor people in the UK via the “welfare” “reforms” of evil part-Jap Iain Dunce Duncan Smith and the Jew “lord” Freud (etc).

I was right about Jo Swinson. My instinct told me that she is an evil bitch. I was right.

https://twitter.com/misslucyp/status/1172941119287648256?s=20

Update, 17 September 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/16/lib-dems-would-need-gargantuan-swing-hit-200-seat-target/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Some LibDems are actually saying that the LDs could get hundreds of MPs in the upcoming general election! Proof positive of their disconnection from reality. People are mostly going to vote LibDem (if at all) only as a way of hitting out at the more major parties. There is no “LibDem surge” as such, but (as I have repeatedly blogged) there is a desire on the part of many Remain partisans to vote against the Conservative Party (mainly).

We have been here before, as when pathetic David Steel urged his rank and file to “prepare for government” (in 1981): http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=42

I imagine that the LibDems will pick up some seats, maybe even 50, but what will prevent Jo Swinson getting 200 or becoming PM is that no-one really wants a LibDem government (well, about a tenth of the voters might…), but many more will vote LibDem negatively, to block other parties or to signal pro-EU Remain support.

Update, 8 October 2019

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 24 October 2019

https://twitter.com/jameshirst91/status/1187268475477213185?s=20

Update, 27 October 2019

Well, my prediction that the LibDems want another “Con Coalition” becomes firmer daily; the Labour reaction is scalding (or should that be “scalded?):

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1188389011917852674?s=20

https://twitter.com/MikeH_PR/status/1188347126352437248?s=20

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/27/bid-libdems-snp-december-9-election-rejected-stunt-tories-labour/

Update, 20 March 2020

Well, my analysis in the above article was right, but the basic facts changed in that Brexit Party candidates standing in Conservative Party-held seats were ordered by their duplicitous leader, Farage, to stand down. That order applied to all Conservative-held seats, even those held by the most committed pro-EU MPs!

That decision by Farage, which betrayed his own candidates and supporters, meant that dozens of pre-election Conservative Party MPs kept their seats when, had Brexit Party stood candidates, they would have lost them to the LibDems.

The LibDems were on track to win several dozen MPs until Brexit Party self-destructed.

Jo Swinson’s decision to push for a General Election, and Corbyn’s silly willingness to be shamed into going along with that, led directly to the victory of the Conservative Party at the 2019 General Election. It led directly to Boris Johnson, a part-Jew, part-Turk public entertainer, as Prime Minister. Disastrous.

My more recent pre-General Election blogging guessed the LibDem result almost exactly. I predicted that the LibDems would get fewer than 10 seats. They got 11. So nearly right, anyway.

As for Jo Swinson, her doormatting for the Jewish lobby paid off, in that she was made a fake “baroness” and elevated to the House of Lords once she lost her Commons seat.

Boris Johnson, Brexit, by-elections, Campaign Against AntiSemitism, Deadhead MPs, Defence, elections, immigration, Jewish lobby in UK, Labour Friends of Israel, MPs, Party Politics, society, The Great Replacement, Uncategorized, white flight

Can Labour Win A 2019 General Election?

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Introduction

Two days ago, I wrote a blog piece entitled “Can The Conservatives Win A General Election (or are they doomed)?”

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/07/28/can-the-conservatives-win-a-general-election-or-are-they-doomed/

My conclusion was that the Conservatives are unlikely to “win” a general election in the sense of achieving a House of Commons majority, but that it is not unlikely that the Conservative Party might, after a general election in late 2019 or early 2020, still be the largest party, i.e. the party with the largest number of MPs.

Until recently, I thought that Labour would probably be the largest party in the Commons after a 2019/2020 general election; now I am unsure. I still think that Labour might beat the Conservatives in terms of numbers of MPs, but the chances must now be close to 50-50.

I now want to lay out my thoughts about Labour’s chances

Just as the Conservative Party has been running out of rank and file members and also (good) ideas for several decades, the Labour Party, though in recent years, under Corbyn, increasing its membership and activist support base, has at the same time been —-what would be the correct term?–laagering or hunkering-down or being concentrated in ever-fewer loyal constituencies. The membership of the Conservatives is still getting older on average (the majority now being over 51, and almost 50% being 65+ years old), whereas the Labour membership is more evenly-aged and far greater in numbers. The Conservatives can muster, at least on paper, about 160,000, whereas Labour has over 500,000 members or registered supporters. All the same, Labour now has 247 MPs, while the Conservative Party has 311.

It is a truth universally acknowledged…that it is better to win 2 constituencies barely than it is to win 1 constituency by a huge majority. That in a nutshell is the problem faced by both major System parties but particularly Labour:

“Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party now has the 10 of safest seats [sic] in the UK, according to a new House of Commons analysis of marginal constituencies…The briefing adds that the number of very safe seats – those won by a margin of over 50 per cent – increased by 21 in 2015 to 37 in June’s election. Labour have all of the top 28.” [The Independent]

Piling up votes in safe seats does nothing, or very little, for a political party under the British “First Past The Post” [FPTP] electoral system. Labour is piling up empty votes. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that Labour is now, to a large extent “the party of the blacks and browns” and other ethnic minorities (except Jews). The tendency of the ethnic minorities to huddle in concentrations, whether for historical, economic, cultural or other reasons, has resulted in concentrations of the Labour vote in areas already historically Labour-voting.

Another aspect to the above is the flight of white English people out of areas becoming “diverse” (in reality, changing from white non-diverse to non-white non-diverse), thus concentrating in those “ghetto” constituencies (or particular wards within constituencies) the “ethnic” vote.

Coming to Brexit, Corbyn has managed to sit on the fence so far. More Labour voters voted Remain than voted Leave, but more Labour constituencies voted Leave than voted Remain, another proof of the concentration of the Labour vote.

In one sense, Corbyn’s fence-sitting means that Labour can in theory appeal to both Leave and Remain voters; in practice, it may make Corbyn and so Labour seem undecided and indeed the victim of events, rather than the setter of the agenda.

Beyond all that, though, Labour has a policy message which might appeal to many, if it can be heard: nationalization or more regulation of public utilities and rail transport, curtailment of the excesses in the private-rental housing sector, an end to the demonization, bullying and even quiet killing by neglect of the disabled, sick, unemployed etc.

Even if Labour is the party of “blacks and browns”, that voter bloc, when combined with the votes of public service workers and those dependent on State benefits, must in theory add up to a vote of something like 30%.

Many commentators have said that, after a period of fragmentation, voters are returning to the main two parties. They say that because, in 2017, the main two parties got 89.1% of the popular vote (Conservative Party 48.8%, Labour Party 40.3%). This consolidation, however, was the result of specific factors which no longer apply.

In 2017, the LibDem popular vote slumped further from its post-Con Coalition collapse in 2015: from 7.9% in 2015 to 7.4% in 2017. Likewise, UKIP, having attained 12.6% in 2015, fell back to 1.8% (UKIP contested only 378 seats). In other words, Con and Lab were really the only two games in town in 2017.

The situation today is very different. The LibDems can appeal on several fronts: to Remainers, because the Liberal Democrat Party is the only unalloyed Remain party of any importance; to those who dislike both main System parties; to the “socially liberal” in London and the South of England (mainly). The LibDems are therefore in theory able to draw from the dissatisfied of both Labour and Conservative. It is important to understand that this is not a “LibDem surge”, more a negative vote against the two main System parties and Brexit Party, though also a vote for a clearly pro-EU party, the only one left [in England].

Then we have Brexit Party. Its mere existence, even on 10% or 15% of the nationwide popular vote, means that the Conservative Party can almost certainly not get a Commons majority. If Brexit Party stands (as promised) in 650 seats and gets an average 20%, then Conservative MPs will die like flies as their seats are taken by the LibDems, by Labour and, in a few cases, by Brexit Party itself.

Labour is fighting against the Jewish-Zionist contrived “antisemitism” protest or faked “storm”. That is not too interesting to the general public, but may support a wider narrative about “Corbyn the extremist”, someone supposedly not patriotic, a supporter of radical and in some cases very unpopular causes in the past. There again, there is the public scepticism about whether Corbyn can do the job of Prime Minister. However, it might be said in response that if Boris-idiot can do it, why can Corbyn not do it? That does rather beg the question, though…

Looking at the electoral picture in the round, I think that Labour will be able to mobilize its core vote of maybe 25%, maybe beyond that to 30%. The Conservative vote is tied to Brexit Party. If BP stands in 650 seats and if BP can get 15%, then I cannot see the Conservative Party getting more than about 30%. The LibDems will siphon off quite a few Remainer votes from both Lab and Con; overall that LibDem vote might amount to 15% or even 20%. “Socially-liberal” Jo Swinson is very pro-capitalist and her party might be an option for pro-EU former Conservative voters as well as some pro-EU and anti-Corbyn Labour ones.

The upshot seems to be that any 2019 or early 2020 general election might produce a Commons with Labour as largest party but as many as 60 MPs short of a majority; alternatively, a Conservative bloc far larger than that of Labour but still about 10 short of a majority. In other words, about where things are now.

My conclusion is that Labour might “win” in the sense of becoming the largest party in the Commons, but cannot at present get a majority.

Notes

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-safe-seat-marginal-constituencies-house-of-commons-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-a7886571.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom

Update, 21 September 2019

This, below, is all too typical of the sort of person now prominent in “Labour” and what is left of the trade unions:

“Riccardo La Torre, firefighter and Eastern Region Secretary of the Fire Brigade Union, branded the coast patrol “despicable” and said: “These have-a-go, racist vigilantes have no place in any kind of enforcement or emergency activities and will only serve to make conditions and tensions worse.”

“These groups claim to be the voice of the working class, but now they want to act as an arm of the authorities by patrolling beaches to apprehend struggling working-class people desperately trying to get to safety.” [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/far-right-britain-first-beach-patrols-calais-dover-anti-migrant-a9113471.html]

So “Riccardo La Torre” (que?), a regional secretary of the Fire Brigade Union, thinks that migrant invaders from Africa and the Middle East are “working class people, trying to get to safety”?!

From, er, France? There you have in a nutshell, the craziness that is much of “Labour” now. Alien migrant-invaders are “working class people” who should be allowed to occupy the UK at will (and be subsidized too)! Note the fag-end “Marxism”, trying to shoehorn the facts into some 1980s polytechnic back-of-postcard Marxism-Leninism.

Update, 23 September 2019

This creature might well be Home Secretary under a Labour government…

https://twitter.com/PaulWal96323461/status/1175921860481036289?s=20

Alt-Right, Boris Johnson, Brexit, elections, historical, MPs, Party Politics, Uncategorized

Can The Conservatives Win A General Election? (or are they doomed?)

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We are where we are, in the now-ubiquitous phrase. The prime-ministerial chair once occupied by the likes of Pitt, the 1st Duke of Wellington, Gladstone, Lloyd George, Churchill, Attlee, Harold Wilson, Margaret Thatcher etc is now occupied by a public entertainer of mixed ethnic and cultural origins, born in New York City, brought up partly in the USA and Belgium, and until recently a dual passport-holder. A rootless cosmopolitan playing out a performance as an “upper-class” “Englishman” caricature. Am-dram Churchill. Poundland Churchill.

Boris Johnson, Boris-idiot, Boris the clown. More to the immediate point, Boris without a majority, soon. As a child of eight years, Boris Johnson wanted to be “world king” and has for decades schemed and cheated and lied in order to get to the nearest position (outside the monarch’s own ambit) that England allows: the rank of Prime Minister. However, he has not become “King of the World”, but “King for a Day”, the traditional role, in the Revels, of the Jester or Fool (“…for who but a Fool would be King for a Day?”).

The Conservative Party elected Boris Johnson its leader. Conservative MPs voted to reduce the field to two. Conservative Party members, some 140,000 of them, voted and 66% of them, about 92,000, preferred Boris Johnson. It is not my purpose of this article to rail more than en passant against the absurdity that allows a prime minister to resign and for her successor to be, in effect, elected by 92,000 (mostly very elderly, mostly rather well-off financially) Conservative Party members (out of about 50 million voters generally). This article is for the purpose of examining electoral chances.

First of all, we have the Brexit chaos. I favoured Leave. I still favour Brexit. However, the whole process was criminally mishandled by the Conservative government of Theresa May.

How will Brexit affect a general election? I assume that the House of Commons will not allow a WTO or “no deal” Brexit, and so any general election that is then called will see Boris Johnson parking his tanks on the lawn of Brexit Party and trying to go all out for, effectively, the Leave vote of 2016. There are dangers for the Conservative Party in that.

Brexit is not the only issue in a general election. Some more affluent voters may vote Conservative for tax or other reasons even if they oppose Brexit. Also, many in the population will never vote Conservative even if they favour Brexit. Many despise Boris Johnson and will never vote Conservative as long as he is the leader. This is, if chess, three-dimensional chess.

However, now that the Conservatives under Johnson present themselves as the “Leave”/Brexit party, it can be assumed that a sizeable number of former Conservative voters who favour staying in the EU will migrate, at least temporarily, to the only significant Remain-supporting party, the LibDems. Where else can they go? It might be argued that many Conservative MPs favour Remain, and that those MPs will receive a special vote based on that. Don’t count on it. The label is the primary motor, and if Conservative means Leave, many Remain voters will leave…the Conservative Party.

If the next general election is called without the UK having left the EU, or having left on terms dictated by the EU (Brexit In Name Only), then Brexit Party will be waiting to snap up the hard-core Brexit vote.

Brexit Party intends, at present, to contest all 650 seats. Its mere presence ensures that dozens, maybe even beyond a hundred, Conservative MPs will lose their seats, in some cases to Brexit Party, but in more cases to the LibDems or Labour.

There has been talk of a Conservative/Brexit Party electoral pact, but that carries the danger of gifting the Brexit Party a bloc of seats. which might challenge the Conservative Party more strongly later.

Labour, though now called by msm commentators a Remain party, is more nuanced. Corbyn’s fence-sitting tactic, though much criticized, is all that he can do in a circumstance where Labour-held seats were more often (about 60%) Leave-voting, though most Labour voters voted Remain (because, as I blogged recently, Labour votes are increasingly concentrated in fewer and fewer seats).

It may be, anyway, that Labour voters have concerns other than, or as well as, Brexit: low pay, the Conservative attacks on the social welfare and benefits system, the burgeoning crime and disorder problem etc.

The composition of the Boris-idiot Cabinet and government will not attract many former Labour, LibDem or floating voters.

My conclusion is that the Boris Johnson government may struggle to attract the votes of more than 30% nationwide. Recent opinion polls have put the Conservatives at anywhere between 23% and 30%. Labour has been between 18% and 28%. LibDems around 16%-20% and Brexit Party 14%-20%.

If the Conservatives continue to lean towards Brexit strongly, they risk losing many of their pro-EU voters to the LibDems, but if they try to fence-sit or move more towards Remain, many of their previous voters will vote for Brexit Party or stay at home.

There is also the Boris Factor, but we see that, even though there has been a “Boris Bounce”, its effect has been slight. The Conservatives are still polling at or below 30% (as is Labour). Indeed, it could be argued that, for many former Conservative voters, especially in marginal seats, Boris-idiot is not an attraction but a turn-off. I concede that that is a guess, but it is at least an educated one.

I have fed various recent opinion poll results into the Electoral Calculus calculator [see Notes, below], and it is quite hard to come up with a Conservative majority in the Commons. Most results show a hung Parliament with either Lab or Con as largest party. Only one showed a Conservative majority (of one vote). In several cases, both main System parties were as many as 80 MPs short of a majority.

Now we all know that the “glorious uncertainty” of the Turf is carried over to the field of battle of British elections. It is hard to predict elections in Britain and “a week is a long time in British politics”, as Harold Wilson said. Also, Electoral Calculus is a fairly rough guide. Having said that, it seems clear that, at least in the short term, the Conservatives are on the back foot here. Any gamble to increase the Conservative majority in the Commons may well backfire, as in 2017. That would mean the end of The Clown as Prime Minister, but would also mean something of a political and even Constitutional crisis.

These should be fertile days for social nationalism, but we are as yet not even in the game…

Notes

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Afterthought, 29 July 2019

David Cameron-Levita as Prime Minister always made sure that the interests of pensioners were prioritized, in particular by introducing the “Triple Lock” on State pensions. Pensions have been one of several issues taking greater prominence over the years by reason of the increasing average age of the population of the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Pension_(United_Kingdom)#Pensions_Act_2007

There were clear practical political reasons for this policy. Support for the Labour Party at elections is fairly even across the half-dozen usual age groups, whereas support for the Conservative Party is concentrated among the old and middle-aged: just under 50% of all Conservative votes are those of persons aged over 65 years. Hardly any young people intend to vote Conservative (in the 18-24 age group, below 4%).

The loyalty of the over 65s has been reinforced by pensioner-friendly policies. There are signs now that the Conservatives intend to, in the oft-seen phrase, “throw the pensioners under a bus”. In 2017 Phillip Hammond wanted to remove part of the Triple Lock, but the DUP insisted on its retention in part-payment for DUP “confidence and supply” support in the Commons.

The Conservative Party is already getting some flak from the elderly for the BBC’s announcement that free TV licences will be withdrawn for those of 75+ years. There are rumblings about bus passes for pensioners. Overall, it is clear that the free market crazies now in the ascendant under Boris-idiot want to target the elderly as they have already done the disabled, sick, unemployed etc.

The Labour Party is now the party of the blacks and browns, those dependent on State benefits, and of the public service workers. The Conservative Party is now the party of the rich, the affluent, the buy-to-let parasites and the like, and (many of) the elderly. If the elderly who are not particularly well-off desert the Conservatives, the Conservative Party is in big trouble, because only about 10%-15% of UK voters can really be described as rich or even affluent, certainly no more than 20%. In 2017, the Conservative vote amounted to 42.4% of votes cast. If half or more of those votes suddenly disappear, the Conservative Party is quite likely to disappear with them.

Further Notes

https://www.ipe.com/countries/uk/peers-call-for-removal-of-triple-lock-on-uk-state-pension/www.ipe.com/countries/uk/peers-call-for-removal-of-triple-lock-on-uk-state-pension/10030786.fullarticle

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/27/pensions-triple-lock-questions-answered

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-over-75s-licence-fee-18335538

Update, 3 February 2023

Well, we all now know that, in December 2019, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party won a supposed “landslide” at the General Election. In fact, the Conservative Party vote was only 43.6% of votes cast, but Labour’s vote fell to 32.1%, and that decided the matter.

Key was the decision of Nigel Farage to stab in the back his own candidates and supporters by withdrawing Brexit Party from serious contention. That was the key act that ensured a Johnson/Conservative win.

Brexit Party ended up with 2% of the vote nationwide. Had Farage and Brexit Party gone all out to win from the start, Brexit Party might have got 15%, which though giving Brexit Party few if any seats, would have tipped the balance back to hung Parliament territory.

Other factors were the elderly and late middle-age voters sticking with the Conservative Party, and the relentless and mainly Jewish anti-Corbyn campaign in the msm, which helped to crush Labour’s chances.