Tag Archives: UKIP

They’re Coming To Take Me Away, Ha Ha!

Well, not me personally! In fact, the title refers rather to those who have tried to attack me over recent years.

Beyond those who seem to be obsessed with me personally (see below), I have noticed over the past 7-8 years on Twitter (my own account was closed down in 2018) that the platform does seem to attract many people who are mentally not normal in various ways. Indeed, many of those seem to take pride in their flawed mentalities and either proudly proclaim themselves to be this, that or the other, or frequently describe their conditions, medication, battles with the DWP or NHS etc.

I tend to look mostly at the more political side of Twitter, and there one does find a lot of mental instability and worse, and that particularly applies to those supporting Zionism, as well as “antifa” idiots. Most who attack me have mental problems (admitted by the individuals themselves).

When I had a Twitter account, one particular little bumboy even incited his relatively few followers to pour petrol over me and immolate me. I could not be bothered to report it to the police (or Twitter) at the time, though Twitter did suspend the pathetic degenerate’s account for a week. I daresay that he will get what’s coming to him in the end, one way or another. He will probably die of AIDS or something before any punishment comes to him from elsewhere. In the meantime, the same unpleasant little blot on humanity still tweets about me and how “evil” I supposedly am, though he does so only occasionally now. He thinks that he is anonymous and hidden, perhaps. He recently tweeted that he is “absolutely fine” about Nigel Farage being attacked with battery acid. Are the police interested? Probably not, since he has not posted rude pictures of one of the tame thick princelings and/or the Royal Mulatta, and has not tweeted anything “anti-Semitic”. One law for all? Hardy ha ha.

Dr. Tim G. Stevens

There again, we see, here below, another nuisance troll who spends time on Twitter: Dr. Tim G. Stevens, NHS consultant psychiatrist from Essex (via South Africa and Newcastle). He tends to tweet in the Jewish and Zionist interest, despite not being Jewish (certainly not full-Jew). He is in favour of mass immigration in the UK and was anti-apartheid as a Trotskyist student in his native South Africa. All the same, it seems that he has no desire to return to build the wonderful new “rainbow nation” South Africa, ruled as it is by an increasingly violent and corrupt African majority rule “democracy”. He is obviously capable enough of seeing the folly in that, but look at this absurd and recent tweet! 

Proof positive of mental disorder!

At first, Dr. Tim seemed to regard me as a person simply espousing an ideology with which he disagreed, but over time he has become virulently hostile, as can be seen in his tweets here below. 

Dr. Tim’s own mental health seems to have deteriorated between 2016 and 2018, looking at a selection of his many tweets about me. Just my honest opinion, of course. He starts off by being quite thoughtful in 2016, but by 2018 is all-out offensive and stupid.

Looking back at 2016, I wonder whether Dr. Tim started to understand that, in the 1930s, it was the norm for at least the leading or influential National Socialists to be highly educated, intelligent etc. The same is in fact true in 2019 of many social national people, but the Jew-Zionists, the “antifa” idiots etc usually want to portray them as “knuckledraggers”. Perhaps it is this cognitive dissonance that has sent Dr. Tim off the rails, apparently. He has recently been tweeting about how he has clinical depression and is on medication for it.

Even in 2016, Dr. Tim seemed obsessed by me and a couple of other tweeters:

In 2016, I am not (yet?) a “knuckledragger”, but by 2017 Dr. Tim thinks that I am a “sad sack“. Ironic, in view of his own (though only recently publicly-admitted) depressive condition…

In fact, and in case anyone is curious, I myself have never been diagnosed with any mental illness or condition…

An odd thing, though, for a psychiatrist to tweet about someone. Not very professional. I am aware that he has also made very unprofessional comments about others in recent years. Examples: Jo Stowell, photographer, formerly of Bristol, for one; also about Alison Chabloz, the persecuted satirist, singer and songwriter.

Dr. Tim attempts a little cod-diagnosis by tweet. Pathetic. Is this the sort of diagnostic skill he uses on his Chelmsford patients?

Obsessed Dr. Tim replies to someone on Twitter who defended me:

Dr. Tim’s journey downward, from 2016 to 2018…

2016:

2017: Ironic. Self-described depressive case (and actually on medication) “Dr. Tim” describes me (never diagnosed with any mental problem or illness) as a “sad sack”.

It does seem rather unprofessional, though, for an NHS consultant psychiatrist to describe anyone as a “sad sack“. It seems to indicate an odd attitude to his own psychiatric patients, particularly those suffering (like Dr. Tim himself) from depression.

Dr. Tim is also a hypocrite:

Others supported me in 2017, at which time I was still on Twitter:

2018:

Dr. Tim is perhaps angry because my instinct told me that he might be partly-Jewish and I tweeted about it once, several years ago. An educated guess based on his general look (not conclusive by any means), his attitude (he not infrequently tweeting about how others envy his professional status and supposed “success”, for example), his constant tweeting about “anti-Semitism” etc, and his being accepted openly as “one of us” by outright Jew-Zionist trolls on Twitter.

In the past, Dr. Tim claimed that one of his grandfathers was an SS officer who died at Stalingrad. At other times, he seems to have tweeted that the same officer was in the Wehrmacht and not the SS. Either way, he tweeted that he was ashamed of that officer, who (assuming any of it is true) seems to have perished defending Europe from Stalinism.

Now it seems that Dr. Tim believes himself to be part-Jew; he has been tweeting about it:

Dr . Tim tweets further (in answer to tweeters who have been arguing with him over his enthusiastic support for controversial electro-shock “therapy”):

and Dr Tim admits that he often cannot think logically or coherently by reason of his mental condition:

and another person with mental illness “issues” replies.

“@cdaargh”

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/1017900289582600192

Tweeter “@cdaargh”, above, formerly known as “Christine of Aargh”, is someone with mental problems, and who supplements her prescribed medication with self-medication (whisky). She is not known for her diplomacy, as evidenced by this amusingly crazed (though understandable) tweet to the then Prime Minister, David Cameron-Levita, in 2015:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/643091968424288256

[Update, 14 October 2025: now that “cdaargh” has locked her Twitter/X account and stopped tweeting (since 2022), her amusingly-crazed tweets cannot be read, but I cannot fail to commemorate one of her best ones, in which she described the then Prime Minister, David Cameron-Levita as, and so replied to one of his official tweets, “you pus-faced shitlizard wankgoblin“. Legendary…].

She does not mince her words generally:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/506882678277570560

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/506158192385335296

She has been obsessed with me for several years. Examples of her tweets:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/760851570456010752

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/764149046822969350

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/762811505834352640

“@cdaargh”, a Jewess, used to troll anyone on Twitter who chatted with me (about anything):

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/640186495698137088

@cdaargh” linked up with a minor Jewish academic called Ben Gidley, “@bengidley”, who was was secretly using the Twitter name “@inthesoupagain” to troll people (Twitter suspended the account permanently in the end, after which “Soup” —Gidley— started an identical account called “@antinazisunited”, now also apparently suspended, though tweets earlier than May 2019 are still extant). He also seems to run Twitter account “@bobfrombrockley” and other accounts, a fact which has often made me wonder whether he ever gets any work done at Birkbeck or Goldsmiths colleges (University of London)! Another one obsessed with me (and “anti-Semitism”, of course).

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/793827438958555136

“Christine” loved it that I was disbarred, and she was too stupid to see that it did not harm me in the slightest (because I had ceased practice 8 years before). I wonder whether “Christine” herself has ever had a job, let alone a profession? I doubt it.

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/794650967736258561

[Update, 7 February 2026: another of her tweets also deserves immortality: some tweeter asked people what would be their favourite Olympic sport. Her reply? “Catapulting politicians onto a wall lined with spikes“! Again, legendary craziness…]

Quite a number of decent tweeters stood with me against these crazies:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/793825120976384000

“Christine/@cdaargh” admitted that half the tweeters she hit with demands to block me then blocked her instead!

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/726211780972793856

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/725489838057787392

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/692486806097498113

Well, “@cdaargh” only tweets occasionally now. Looks as though she is back down the rabbithole or somewhere. I could show hundreds of other tweets from her in similar vein, but there it is… Her latest tweets at time of writing of this article:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/1139582916432994304

Bye! See you at the tea-party sometime!

A few more tweets from “Christine”:

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/1143214575057342464

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/1143223983665553408

Andrew Roberjot aka “@frankiescar” / “flying”

A Zionist Jew who seems to spend a great deal of time on Twitter is tweeter “@frankiescar”, aka Andrew Roberjot, a kind of legal groupie (though apparently unqualified), who is so odd that he actually turned up to gloat when I was before the Bar Disciplinary Tribunal in 2016. While he is not (as far as I know) actually clinically mentally-disordered, he is an obsessed Zionist who, like Dr. Tim, has an elastic relationship with the truth. Here, below, they discuss my ability as a barrister, and my life at the Bar in the 1980s (in fact, I was still a —belated— student then, and, having spent years in the USA, was Called to the Bar only in 1991):

Roberjot “diagnoses” me! Ah, well, why not? Stevens is little better, and he is apparently a qualified psychiatrist (though I have never heard of one behaving as he does). Note that NHS “consultant psychiatrist” and depressive case Dr Tim “likes” Roberjot’s “diagnosis”…

I wonder whether I should make formal complaint against Stevens to the GMC? His behaviour seems very unprofessional, to say the least. I shall have to think about it. I usually prefer to not bother with the like. On the other hand, “Mark Lewis Lawyer” laughed when people said that they would complain against him. Well, he’s not laughing now…

Note that “@frankiescar” (Jewish Zionist knowall —or know-nothing— Roberjot) agrees with some other crazy Zionist that I was “a prospective Tory candidate” in years past. Not only have I never been a prospective candidate for any party, but have never even belonged to the Conservative Party (or to any System party)! Complete fabrication. Well, after all, what else can you expect from (((them)))?

Mike Stuchbery

Yet another one who has mental “issues” is Mike Stuchbery, who has tweeted against me in the past, gloating at my disbarment etc if I recall aright, though there were so many unthinking deadheads and “antifa” idiots like Stuchbery doing that (especially in late 2016, soon after my disbarment) that by now I have forgotten almost all.

Stuchbery poses as both “journalist” and “historian”. In fact, he was briefly a (later discredited and sacked) supply teacher in a comprehensive school, who now is always asking his Twitter followers for money):

Not all of Stuchbery’s readers on Twitter are sympathetic…

Stuchbery is better known for having quite recently organized people to go to Tommy Robinson’s family’s home, while also organizing the filming of the incursion. What Stuchbery did not anticipate was that Tommy Robinson would turn up later at his, Stuchbery’s, house! Collapse of stout party! In fact, meltdown…

Stuchbery

Stuchbery’s modus operandi is to sit in the rear and co-ordinate information about any broadly “nationalist” activists, from UKIP and Brexit Party through Tommy Robinson and on to social nationalism. He does not expect to be directly involved in the violence he can be said to have incited (he himself claims that his actions fall short of incitement), but he supports it with weasel words, and he certainly does not expect to be called to account for his actions (see photograph above!) . The Tommy Robinson episode may have taught him a lesson, i.e. “what goes around comes around”. I wonder.

Louise Mensch

Then again, we have others, affected by mental problems, drugs, whatever: Louise Mensch, for example. The one-time “chick-lit” scribbler as Louise Bagshawe) and pro-Zionist, who is married to a New York Jew and now lives in Manhattan), was briefly the “Conservative” Party MP for Corby (under her married name, Mensch, not her, er, “maiden” name of Bagshawe):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louise_Mensch

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/former-tory-mp-louise-mensch-denies-she-quit-over-general-election-fears-as-bizarre-marital-spat-8229627.html

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/11/louise-mensch-corby-was-nothing-more-stepping-stone

Before she scribbled “chick-lit” books and became an MP, Louise Mensch worked for EMI, at which time she was a heavy drug abuser. She has admitted being left with “long term mental problems” by reason of her drug abuse.

Apparently, she was also a very promiscuous rock music groupie too, at one time, a fact that the 2010 Conservative Party campaign at Corby failed to mention:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/louise-mensch-university-heavy-metal

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/1910179/louise-mensch-super-groupie

Oxford University has, of course, always been famous for bikes (though mainly of the 2-wheeled type).

LouiseMenschDrugging

[above, Louise Mensch, smoking drugs]

Hard to believe that the Conservative Party made a ghastly and ignorant bitch like that an MP, even if it lasted in the end no more than about 15 months. Oh, well, maybe not, looking at some other MPs…

Louise Mensch has of course admitted being “left with long-term mental problems” because of her drug abuse, and is now notorious for making up claims about supposed Russian involvement in American and UK elections, claims that have recently been exploded by independent research. Even Nick Clegg, for Facebook, has now agreed with that.

Mensch personifies the absurdity of Twitter: with 289,000 “followers” (whether bought or real; perhaps genuine), she no doubt thinks herself very influential, but her real political or other influence is effectively zero.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraMcK42/status/903381817754923008

Louise Mensch was almost manically or hysterically happy when I was disbarred in England, and actually tweeted directly to me to say that she was going to make similar complaint against me to the Bar of the State of New York. She thus managed to display simultaneously not only her lack of any class, but also her ignorance about the New York Bar and its rules, and about US Federal law (including the US Constitution).

Louise Mensch. What a stupid demented cow! When she realized that she had no leg to stand on (little matters such as the U.S. Constitutional free speech provisions, the fact that she was never my client, the fact that I have in fact never practised in New York despite being qualified and Admitted there… etc), she deleted the tweet. In fact, she seems to have deleted all her tweets about me.

https://twitter.com/ElToroSolo/status/634925040400736256

https://twitter.com/perspolicy/status/1033382602307198976

Another point: anyone who thinks that attendance at Oxford University guarantees a good level of knowledge should take a look at types such as Louise Mensch…Like so much of Britain, Oxford University has been living off its hump for a very long time.

Mark Lewis

Abusive Jew-Zionist solicitor Mark Lewis, whose mind has been damaged either by his multiple sclerosis condition or the drugs used to control or ameliorate it, admitted when on trial before the Solicitors’ Disciplinary Tribunal that at times he had no idea what he was doing, saying, or tweeting! After having being found guilty, he fled to Israel with his carer/”partner”.

170217-lewis-die-e1533384703639

Rather than go through all the details of Lewis’s crazed behaviour, I refer the reader to my previous studies about him, which can be found on my blog pages via the search function. Incidentally, he has never even threatened to sue me for any of what I have written about him…

“Slatfascists”

Then we have the persistent Twitter troll (he’s also on GAB and other platforms) known, inter alia, as “‘@slatfascists” or “Dave”. Another one with mental problems — this becomes almost tiresome, but this article is being written to show the strong link between “antifa” (and also some Zionists) trolling and snooping, and mental disorder.

“Slatfascists” is often in contact on Twitter with other “antifa” idiots and also Zionists such as “Mark Lewis Lawyer”. Supposedly Mancunian (like Lewis), his main interest other than trolling/snooping is playing some stupid online game in which the “space cadets” pretend to be commanders of spaceships! Beam me up! Once, “slatfascists” did not take his medication and had a Twitter meltdown. Out of misplaced compassion, I deleted my Twitter comments about the episode. As the Bible says, “do not give that which is holy to the dogs, lest they turn and rend you” (as he indeed did…). Below, “slatfascists” interacts with another disturbed person, who describes himself as a “proud Aspie” (Asperger’s Syndrome person)

[Update, 16 October 2021: “Slatfascists” has closed down his Twitter account, possibly because his identity was allegedly revealed recently. Good riddance; and I hope permanent riddance. Because the “Slatfascists” Twitter account has gone up the chimney, none of his malicious and unpleasant tweets can now be seen]

[Update, 17 October 2021: as predicted likely yesterday, “Slatfascists” is back on Twitter already. A weak-minded little troll with nothing to say].

[Update, January 2022: “@slatfascists” has changed its Twitter name to “@DaveAFAF”]

Update, 27 April 2020

Well, Ben Gidley is, sadly, still around, but his main troll accounts on Twitter have been killed off: @inthesoupagain went up the chimney; @antinazisunited is permanently frozen though the tweets are mostly extant. @BobFromBrockley is still on Twitter, but revealed now as simply a pro-Israel account with some pathetic “non pasaran!” 1930s Popular Front stuff added (the Labour Party supporters on Twitter saw through “BobFromBrockley” long ago).

“Christine” or “@cdaargh” seems to have gone down the rabbithole or (very likely, I think) permanently up the chimney. Her last tweet was in early December 2019, i.e. over 4 months ago.

https://twitter.com/cdaargh/status/1206686493596684294?s=20

Good riddance.

ds3

Update, 12 August 2020

Seems that unprofessional NHS psychiatrist “Dr. Tim” (Tim G. Stevens, of Epping Forest/Chelmsford) cannot stop himself from commenting on me via Twitter. Having said that I am a “sad sack” (despite the fact that he is the one with a diagnosed mental problem, and is on medication for it), he now uses that other term of medical art, “batshit“, about me and others, while chatting on Twitter with a few Jews and yet another nut, a Balkan woman who is a convicted fraudster and embezzler and who claims to be a medical doctor as well as an MBA and various other things. She was convicted in 2013: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2448851/Ex-press-secretary-fleeced-UKIP-MEP-went-spending-spree-disapproving-policies.html

Were I not so lazy, I should probably see what the General Medical Council (GMC) has to say about Dr. Tim, but I cannot be bothered at present. After all, what goes around comes around, eventually.

Update, 14 August 2020

Update, 5 December 2020

The tweeter above is not Jewish, certainly not full, but has been a consistent ally of the Jewish lobby in the UK, especially but not exclusively on Twitter. I believe that she has tweeted against me a few times in the past but her main focus has been to defeat the Corbyn wing of the Labour Party.

Synchronicity. I was recently rereading the memoirs of Hans Eysenck [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Eysenck] who was based for a long time at the Maudsley Hospital (near Denmark Hill, South London).

People with mental problems, and who are not Jewish, often either attach themselves to Jews, Zionism, and Israel, or develop psychoses if they visit Israel. Israeli psychiatrists even have a special label they attach to such manifestations, i.e. “Jerusalem Syndrome”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerusalem_syndrome

What a nice person…Still, “it’s not her fault…she’s mentally ill“…I suppose…(or maybe she’s just not very nice…).

Update, 2 January 2021

Good grief! Another one!

Kamm, half-Jewish, is a hypocrite who pretends to be pro-free speech, but consistently, in my view, manifests the reverse when —important point— the interests of Jews, the Jewish lobby, or Israel are involved. He made sure that he got quoted by the msm Press after I got disbarred in 2016, saying that he was “a near-absolutist on free speech” (but still commended my disbarment at the instigation of a pack of Jews!) See: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2017/07/09/the-slide-of-the-english-bar-and-uk-society-continues-and-accelerates/.

Kamm has also said that persecuted singer-songwriter Alison Chabloz should not have been prosecuted in 2018 for having posted songs satirizing a few of the many hundreds of proven “holocaust” fakes and frauds. Superficially, a pro-free speech position, but not when you understand that what he wants (and proposed) is for major online and offline platforms to quietly ban Alison Chabloz (and others) from saying (or singing) anything! A prize half-Jew hypocrite.

He has now monetized his own mental condition!

Below, Kamm continues to lie…

Liar.

Update, 1 February 2021

and I saw this today:

Ironic…if I am not mistaken, that “antifascist” tweeter, “@jdpoc” (who in the past has tweeted against me) was quite recently tweeting something online about his own mental “issues”…

Update, 17 February 2021

Aargh aargh AAARGH!@cdaarghgone girl. that is to say, I’ve left twitter for good. I hope. For the sake of my mental health. Good luck, and fight fascism.

Looks as though @cdaargh has finally taken her pills and her bottle of whisky back down the rabbit-hole.

In other news, it seems that “Dr. Dim” (see above) has had to apologise to persecuted satirical singer Alison Chabloz, and delete one or more tweets about her, after the NHS trust that employs him took up the matter of his online abusiveness. Talk about eating crow! The GMC should take up the matter.

Update, 21 June 2021

Well, “Dr. Dim” continues to tweet occasionally about Alison Chabloz and others, though I have not seen much about me since Dr Dim was forced, quite a while ago, by his NHS employers, to delete a tweet mentioning me, satirical singer Alison Chabloz, and Jo Stowell (photographer, formerly of Bristol). He lied about all three of us supposedly having threatened him and his family. The bastard even gratefully accepted tweets in commiseration from a number of mugs who follow his Twitter account.

Alison Chabloz got an official apology from “Dr Dim” (Dr. Tim G. Stevens), via his NHS trust, but so far neither he nor his Trust has apologized directly to me. Well, I am not a Jew, so do not harp on about “apologies” all the time.What goes around comes around, in the end…

In the meantime, “Dr. Dim” continues to transgress the NHS code of practice for psychiatrists by publicly posting “diagnoses” of people who are not his patients, and whom he has never even met. Below, George Galloway [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Galloway], a candidate in the 1 July 2021 by-election at Batley and Spen, gets the Dr. Dim treatment:

I think I know who is “not well“…

Update, 16 October 2021: As noted now in the body of the text, “Slatfascists” has closed down his Twitter account, possibly because his identity was allegedly revealed recently, though I have no idea whether the identity “revealed” by a couple of tweeters was the correct one.

Good riddance; and I hope permanent riddance. Unfortunately, because the “Slatfascists” Twitter account has “gone up the chimney”, none of his malicious and unpleasant tweets can now be seen.

Memory lasts longer than tweets…

[note: as updated in the body of the text, “Slatfascists” weakly decided to crawl back to Twitter only a day after having “left”, and continues to troll, pointlessly, as before, now sub nom “@DaveAFAF”]

Update, 27 December 2021

No need to comment, methinks (Stevens is also now suffering from, he has previously tweeted, possibly-terminal cancer).

I see, looking at the above blog post for the first time in a couple of months, that some of the others have also reduced their Twitter trolling as a result of various events.

“The Balkan woman” (Balkan fraud) has not tweeted for about a month, and little before that over the past year, as a result (presumably) of the alleged murder of her son a year or so ago.

“@Frankiescar” (Andrew Roberjot), the “legal people” groupie, troll and Zionist pest, who actually turned up to gloat when I was disbarred by a Bar Disciplinary Tribunal in late 2016), has disengaged, at least in public, from the “CAA” fake charity. He rarely if ever mentions me now; I even see the odd tweet from him with which I can agree! Mirabile dictu!

In fact, Roberjot/@frankiescar has, like so many who attack me, suffered a serious “medical episode” (necessitating a heart operation). #TenGreenBottles…

More about that “Dr. Julia Grace Patterson”, who selflessly (in her own opinion) gave up her medical career in order to spout rubbish, sell facemasks and start a supposedly pro-NHS pressure group…

https://twitter.com/Philosophi__Cal/status/1475255941406892038?s=20

She is now supported by Communist hypocrite and SAGE bureaucrat, Professor Susan Michie (who wants an almost endless “lockdown”, endless restrictions on personal liberty etc):

The Michie woman was even once banned from the UK Communist Party conference for being too extreme! Now she advises the Boris-idiot government of fools.

The fact is that the man at the bar of the local pub knows almost as much about “Covid” as some GPs, and as much as some non-practising “doctors” who run pressure groups and sell things such as cloth facemasks.

It would be interesting to know exactly what (if any) post-qualification medical career that young Patterson woman has had. I suspect not much of one.

Unfortunately, people tend to take “doctor”-somebody as someone who actually knows something in some depth. Often not so (and that is without even looking at the “doctors” of various non-medical subjects who (despite not being medical doctors, academics, or people in religious orders), insist on calling themselves “doctor” this or that on Twitter. I have blogged in the past about political bad jokes such as “Doctor” Louise Raw. Just one of many.

Anyway, back to the (other) lunatics who have (more often) attacked me online.

“Christine of Aargh” (@cdaargh) seems to have gone up the chimney or into a mental hospital, and has not tweeted publicly for well over a year: https://twitter.com/search?q=cdaargh&src=typed_query&f=live.

“Slatfascists” and some others (eg some crazed and apparently incontinent old woman to whom he talks online) only occasionally mention me now, probably because they realize that every time I or my blog are mentioned, my readership increases.

Mike Stuchbery occasionally mentions me, but not so often as at one time; he too probably wants to starve my blog of the “oxygen of publicity”, and has apparently taken up running, with almost (?) manic fervour. As far as I know, his proposed legal action against fake nationalist “Tommy Robinson” has still not come to court, a couple of years on from when he and Roanna Carleton-Taylor (“@oilpaintwitch”) collected nearly £12,000 via GoFundMe for that purpose.

In fact the said Roanna, “Witch of Peace” as was, has had the ludicrously-misnamed “anti-fascist” “organization” (a handful of lunatics), “Resisting Hate” she ran booted off Twitter. Poetic justice…

I have heard little from crazed non-Jewish Zionist idiot Louise Mensch, though I saw in some newspaper that her wealthy Jewish-American husband has managed to get rid of her by divorce. In political terms, she is, if possible, even more of a nullity than she has been for the past 9 years. No-one takes her even semi-seriously now.

As for serial troll Ben Gidley, the minor Jew academic, a few people better-known to the public than me (eg Peter Hitchens) have exposed on Twitter his, Gidley’s, fake Twitter personas, Hitchens perhaps having seen my blog, or former Twitter exposure of that horrible little pest.

A number of crazy or just unpleasant persons who have attacked or insulted me on Twitter have died, and/or suffered other hits, since I posted the main article. As for the rest, such as Kamm, they are still around, but rarely if ever mention me now.

Happy New Year!

Update, 2 December 2022

A few updated facts about those mentioned in the original post.

“@TimGStevens”. “Dr. Dim” has not mentioned me on Twitter since his health deteriorated and he was hospitalized suffering from both delerium and some kind of cancer, though after a long break, he now again tweets occasionally, about one tweet every week or so.

Maybe he learned his lesson after committing a number of unprofessional acts, including having falsely accused singer Alison Chabloz, a lady photographer from Bristol, and me of (all) having threatened his family. He was too lacking in class to apologise directly, but Alison Chabloz received a formal apology, nominally on the bastard’s behalf, sent by the NHS trust for which he works or worked.

Why is an unprofessional loony like that even employed by the NHS and/or Chelmsford and Essex (C&E) Trust? “Answer came there none“.

“@cdaargh” seems not to have tweeted since late 2020, and her Twitter account is locked.

The “Balkan fraud” mentioned on the blog has tweeted only a few times since July 2022. I feel restricted in what I can write about her, because the trial of a couple of defendants accused of having stabbed her son to death over two years ago is still upcoming, set down for some date in 2023.

I probably could write more about her without falling foul of “contempt of court” (she will not, I apprehend, be a major witness anyway) but prefer to leave it until after that trial concludes (assuming that it proceeds). I may have a few more interesting things to say about her then.

In the meantime, said woman has been in hospital for several months, and has tweeted that the nurses and doctors in that hospital have deliberately stabbed her with needles, causing her to go into a coma for 8 weeks. Latterly, she also blames the Metropolitan Police for sending her into a coma (because of “stress”), and says that the police are “harassing” her and her family (what family?).

I expect that I would be criticized for being too suspicious, were I to say that I suspect the genesis of a spurious medical negligence claim and (and/or) another type of money claim (which I shall not specify today).

At her trial in 2013 [https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2448851/Ex-press-secretary-fleeced-UKIP-MEP-went-spending-spree-disapproving-policies.html] the judge sentencing her was very critical of her:

Judge Michael Gledhill QC told Badzak that she would have been jailed for a year had she not been the sole carer for her 15-year-old son, who is studying his GCSEs.

Instead, he suspended her 12-month month prison sentence for two years to ‘avoid wrecking her son’s life’.

Sentencing, Judge Gledhill told her: ‘In November 2011 you were taken on by Gerard Batten on a three-month contract and you were to be paid by the European Parliament. 

‘You knew there would be a delay in payments and you were not to be paid until January. In fact, the European Parliament paid people earlier than expected in December.

‘You doctored your online bank statement with your NatWest account by removing the £2,500 payment so someone looking at the statement would think it had not been paid.

‘That was flagrant dishonesty.

‘In due course Mr Batten was good enough to give you another three-month contract and you threw that back in his face by continuing the lie.

‘By the end of the period he realised you were not working together as satisfactorily as he had hoped when he decided not to issue another three-month contract. 

What did you do? You then took him to an employment tribunal and lost those proceedings.

‘You reported him to the police for fraud, who investigated and took no further action. You issued high court proceedings against him as well.

You did that to deflect attention from your own dishonesty by mounting a wholesale attack on his character. 

‘He said he felt he was on trial and that was your doing.

‘I am going to suspend the sentence only because of your son. He is perfectly innocent of any wrongdoing and I’m not going to wreck his life by sending his mother to prison.‘”

[Daily Mail]

Despite having an MBA qualification, she claimed she was ‘absolutely useless’ with money and ‘never knew what was in her bank account.’

Arlette Piercy, defending Badzak, told the court that she suffered from significant health problems including depression, which had been exacerbated as a result of the proceedings.

Badzak, of Kilburn, northwest London, denied forgery and fraud but was convicted by a jury.

[Daily Mail]

The half-dozen “readers’ comments” are amusing.

Said woman often mentions her MBA, as well as her supposed medical qualifications from (I believe) former Yugoslavia. It may be true, though one has to ask why someone with such qualifications was working as a poorly-paid secretary on a 3-month contract. I believe that, for the past many years (about 9 or 10 years), the woman has been living off State benefits of various kinds.

A 2019 Twitter spat with UK-based minor academic Marko Attila Hoare (who, ironically, himself tweeted against me in past years):

Ha ha!

Andrew Roberjot aka “@frankiescar”. Since the days when the once-described “drunken bankrupt former businessman” constantly trolled my Twitter account, and even turned up at my Bar Disciplinary Tribunal to gloat (((as “they” would))) [for details of that case, see https://ianrobertmillard.org/2017/07/09/the-slide-of-the-english-bar-and-uk-society-continues-and-accelerates/], “@frankiescar” has, like so many others of his type, suffered serious health problems, and even had surgery. He seems to have distanced himself (at least in public) from the worst Jew-Zionist cabal on Twitter, and has not mentioned me for a long time (that in fact has applied to most of “them” in the past 6-9 months).

“@DaveAFAF” aka “slatfascists”. This one has apparently recently been expelled from Twitter. He saw it coming, somehow. His Twitter account does not even say “account suspended” but just “this account doesn’t exist“. In a way, it is incredible that the unpleasant mentally-afflicted bastard was not expelled years ago. All he did (apart from pretending to be an “Elite Dangerous” “space cadet”) was troll people and/or tweet insults about better people than himself. No ideas about society, not even any intelligent political or social commmentary. Typical “antifa” idiot.

“@DaveAFAF” (deceased, though sadly not literally, yet), tweeted, prior to his departure, that he intended to appeal. I presume that he was messaged by Twitter in advance. Anyway, for now it is “good riddance” time…

[“Get down there where you wanted to send me, you unclean spirit!“]

[Update, 3 December 2022: unfortunately, it seems that the troll “@DaveAFAF” has been allowed back on Twitter, at least for the time being, and so far confined to retweeting tweets of others]

That’s all, folks! (for now).

The Elon Musk risorgimento at Twitter is like a breath of fresh air, though I suspect that the Jews are working day and night to destabilize the new order or to influence Elon Musk.

Update, 4 December 2022

Well, “@DaveAFAF” now spins his temporary expulsion as if he himself deleted his Twitter account:

Recent tweets re “@DaveAFAF”:

Update, 7 April 2023

Well, prolific tweeter and political oddity (though not obviously mentally-disordered) Marko Attila Hoare has, for the first time in a few years (I think) tweeted about me:

Apart from the fact that the “clique” did not exist (the tweeters mentioned were just individuals, not closely or organizationally connected with each other), and apart from the fact that none of those mentioned could be described as “vicious“, I do not recall that any of those people “harassed” anyone. Rather the contrary.

I myself have never heard of Damian Read. As for the others, I recall the others from Twitter. A few of them tweeted to me occasionally while I still had a Twitter account (a pack of Jews had me expelled in 2018, and I have not bothered to get myself reinstated).

The only one of that list I have met in person was persecuted satirist and singer-songwriter Alison Chabloz, and that encounter was a 5-minute chat at the now-defunct London Forum, at which I gave a legal talk in 2017.

In theory, I could sue Marko Attila Hoare in libel and, now being very impecunious, would have little to lose, but I do not play games of that sort, luckily for Hoare, who might find such an action expensive even if I lost. Well, I have now a year, minus a few days, in which to decide on that, but I doubt that I shall bother in the end.

Update, 20 May 2023

A few updates, in fact.

I have some interesting thoughts, and information, about Jasna Badzak, but will wait until the trial of those accused of killing her son ends, which will not be for months (it has not even started so far).

Then we have “Dr. Dim” (Tim G. Stevens). He, it seems, is actually addressing the Royal College of Psychiatrists, no less, at their conference in Liverpool in July; on “professional practice” etc.

I never did get that apology from him or his employers in Essex, after he made a completely untrue and, indeed, crazed allegation that singer Alison Chabloz and photographer Jo Stowell (and me) were either threatening to attack, or actually planning to attack, his family!

In relation to that outright and loony lie, Alison Chabloz made official complaint and eventually received apology from “Dim’s” employing NHS trust (he was too lacking in courage and class to do it himself), I was given a half-apology by the NHS trust concerned, was told that the matter was being investigated, but in the end (as I expected), it died on the vine. The third person libelled did not want the bother of making a complaint.

Stevens had to delete his lying tweets, though.

In between then and now, Stevens has actually been hospitalized suffering from serious delusions, but now seems to be ready to pontificate to his fellow-psychiatrists, though he tweets only occasionally now.

As with so much in modern Britain, you could hardly make up such nonsensical behaviour as displayed by Stevens.

Looks as if at least one other person (unnamed, for now) who used to tweet unpleasantly about me is having to face the fact that his days are numbered by reason of a medical condition. #TenGreenBottles…

Update, 25 October 2023

No comment (necessary).

Tweeting to “Dr. Dim” Stevens…

Small (Twitter/X) world…

Update, 27 October 2023

Jew-Zionist loonie.

…and here’s another:

Update, 5 December 2023

Well, it took that one (above) another 5 or 6 weeks actually to shuffle off (Twitter/X) but “they” do tend to cling on like limpets (or should that be “leeches”?)…

https://twitter.com/AngryLevantine/status/1732058353734386167

I have decided to leave Twitter. This is not a decision I made on a whim, or out of vindictiveness. This is something that took hours of careful deliberation amongst myself. I am doing this for my own benefit.

I am doing this because my depression, my anxiety, and my extreme bouts of anger are doing damage to the fight against antisemitism and other causes I care about, and to friendships (if online friendships can even be called that) I valued. I don’t like that my personal issues have become a source of drama and division. I want to be an asset. Not a liability. That is why I am exiting. If I do return here, it will be when I’m in a healthier state of mind. I will leave this up for a day or so before deactivating.”

but a mere hour later—

As if anyone wants to read that loonie’s outpourings.

Update, 7 February 2024

Well, the “Balkan Fraud”, Jasna Badzak, is still occasionally tweeting. As I suspected a year ago, she was thinking of making both a medical negligence claim (based on her bizarre allegation that NHS staff deliberately and repeatedly stabbed her or injected her with something while she was in hospital), or a Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority claim based around the fact of her son’s murder by a gang of blacks a few years ago. I think that she also has it, or had it, in mind to sue the police, but that is a guess on my part. She has now tweeted this:

“…did not pay me anything“…That is her beef. She wants money, always, and preferably other people’s…

Looks like the criminal injuries people turned down her claim, if one was made. I can guess why.

I appeared as Counsel in very few Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority matters, but recall that one reason for not paying an award, or reducing one actually made, is because the applicant is of “bad character” (which includes but is not limited to criminal convictions).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2448851/Ex-press-secretary-fleeced-UKIP-MEP-went-spending-spree-disapproving-policies.html.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10361238/Ukip-MEPs-researcher-lied-about-Euro-Parliament-payment.html

Jasna Badzak, 42, fed Gerard Batten a “pack of lies” about how her wages from the European Parliament had not been paid and she was too poor to travel to work, a court heard.

In fact she had doctored her online bank statement to make it appear as if the £2,500 payment had not been received.

Taken in by her story, the MEP loaned her the apparently outstanding wages, together with a separate £500, believing she would repay him after receiving the cash from the European Parliament.

Records show that in the meantime Badzak enjoyed spending sprees in Gucci and Harrods, Southwark Crown Court was told.

She only offered to reimburse Mr Batten after police began an investigation, and has yet to repay a penny to the MEP.

Badzak, who fled war-torn Yugoslavia 20 years ago and whose relatives died in Nazi concentration camps, said her relationship with the politician deteriorated after she was asked to work on a policy document entitled “Dismantling Multiculturalism” in February 2011.

“[the judge at the Crown Court said that] ‘You doctored your online bank statement with your NatWest account by removing the £2,500 payment so someone looking at the statement would think it had not been paid. That was flagrant dishonesty.

In due course Mr Batten was good enough to give you another three-month contract and you threw that back in his face by continuing the lie.’

When Mr Batten decided not to issue another three-month contract after that, Badzak took him to an employment tribunal and lost, the court heard.

She also reported him to the police for fraud, but detectives investigated and took no further action.

Judge Gledhill added: ‘You issued high court proceedings against him as well. You did that to deflect attention from your own dishonesty by mounting a wholesale attack on his character. He said he felt he was on trial and that was your doing.

I am going to suspend the sentence only because of your son. He is perfectly innocent of any wrongdoing and I’m not going to wreck his life by sending his mother to prison’…

[Daily Telegraph]

Badzak’s conviction dates from October 2013.

As to whether she really has qualifications (from Yugoslavia) as a medical doctor, and whether she really has an MBA from somewhere else, God knows. If so, why was she working for a modest sum as a temporary office-bod? She seems to have been living for at least a decade on various UK state benefits. We shall probably never know.

She used to tweet very disparagingly about me, that I was “just a fool” etc. Very silly.

#TenGreenBottles…

Update, 10 February 2024

[originally posted on Twitter/X in 2023, but retweeted by political academic Matt Goodwin today]

If there were a “pro-Israel” or “Jew-Zionist” category, it would probably be nearer to 90%.

Update, 16 February 2024

Update, 10 April 2024

Well, the Balkan Fraud (Jasna Badzak) has now set up a GoFundMe appeal, and numerous mugs have donated already. She seeks £40,000, ostensibly in order to get medical treatment and generally to “get well” so that she can track down those who appear to have escaped trial for the murder of her son (I believe that three others have been convicted at trial, which trial or trials received enormous publicity in the Sun, Daily Mail etc). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c03xe0j0xwro.

Strange GoFundMe appeal. After all, her medical treatment is free in the UK; you do not have to pay for it. Also, how will giving Badzak money help catch those responsible for her son’s murder?

It looks to me like a kind of scam, frankly. Still, there it is, genuine or not. I think certainly not.

Among the mugs who have already donated, I notice well-known newspaper and online scribblers Carole Cadwalladr, Peter Jukes and (assuming it is the political journalist and broadcaster) Michael Crick.

So far, she has raised over £2,000 for herself.

Update, 29 April 2024

Previously-featured Zionist loonie @AngryLevantine continues:

History is not on the right side of History“…

Update, 5 May 2024

Balkan fraud Jasna Badzak continues to try to scam money out of kind-hearted but unthinking members of the public, having so far failed to get a criminal injuries compensation award (re. the murder of her son a few years ago), and also having, it seems, failed to sue either the NHS or Metropolitan Police for supposedly having “injected her with needles for 5 days” and thus having (allegedly) sent her into a coma and (later) paralysed her.

She claims to be unable to lift a glass or wipe away tears, yet tweets several times daily, asking for money for her GoFundMe appeal. Dozens of —in my opinion— mugs have actually now donated a total of nearly £3,000, in only two months or so.

Somewhere between a lunatic and a horrible snake, in my opinion.

Update, 6 May 2024

I noticed a while ago a fanatical and violent Jew-Zionist, “@leekern13”, on Twitter/X. He has in the past expressed incitement to violence, i.e. to the effect that “antisemites” “should be hurt” etc. That same Jew has now emigrated from his “native” London to Tel Aviv, from where he tweets to the effect that the (UK) Press and TV, and Twitter/X users, “are Hamas”.

[Tweet in question later deleted]

Distasteful and, like so very many other of the most fanatical Jew-Zionists (as shown above in this blog post), mentally afflicted.

Incidentally, this is what the Jew says about Britain, where he was presumably born, brought up, educated (probably free of charge, thanks to those British “antisemitic” taxpayers), and where he was given his career opportunities:

“I’m leaving Britain and moving to Israel.

Even if it wasn’t for the antisemitism I’d be leaving Britain is a dying society I’ll be fine in Israel It’s the most dynamic, creative and positive place I’ve ever been – even though surrounded by Islamic fundamentalist psychopaths who daily try to destroy it .

You can forget the power of positivity and optimism. It’s become taboo in England.

That’s one thing I’ll never understand or make peace with. Britain is a shit hole – but if you try to express positivity, pride and optimism in the idea of salvaging something good about ourselves and improving things – you’ll be shamed and beaten down by smug, elitist morons who have a stranglehold over our culture – a culture that they have made desperately dull and oppressive.

Britain is a place that hates individuals who stick their head above the parapet, hates self-belief, hates pride, and it hates success.

Our enemies have contributed to this grim culture of floundering confusion and self-loathing. Useful idiots do the donkey work. And our leadership seem to lack entirely any connection with the grandeur or grand ideas that drive not just a society forward – but a civilisation.

[Lee Kern]

Like so many of his type, he hates the UK, hates Europe, hates the Arabs and other Muslims (needless to say); basically hates anything not Jewish.

When Israel is destroyed, what is the betting that —if he survives— he will come crawling back to this country that he hates?

Indeed, his recent tweets sometimes seem to be posted from Tel Aviv, and sometimes from the UK (presumably from the North London/South Hertfordshire “Borshch Belt”).

Does he even know what country he is in, or has he “emigrated” to Israel while really still spending much of his time in the UK that he obviously despises (or purports to despise)? (cf. “Mark Lewis Lawyer”).

A complete loonie, like so many others.

Update, 7 May 2024

This one has been tweeting, mainly though not entirely in the “antifascist”/Jewish-lobby interest, for years. Turns out that he is yet another one with what he himself describes as “very severe mental health issues“.

Someone should do a Ph.D. thesis on the links between mental problems, “antifascist” tendencies, and Jew-Zionism. Might be groundbreaking.

Update, 8 May 2024

Another:

Is comment even necessary?

Update, 30 May 2024

Another one:

Myerson, an obsessed Jew-Zionist who tweets up to 100x a day on occasion, is a member of both “UK Lawyers for Israel” and “Campaign Against Antisemitism”, is a barrister based mainly in Leeds, and a Recorder (p/t judge) who has recently been rebuked by the Judicial Conduct Investigations Office for his toxic social media presence.

Update, 10 July 2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_Nichols#Personal_life

Nichols grew up in a mostly secular Catholic family with some Irish heritage. At the age of 22, Nichols started attending weekly services at the Manchester Reform Synagogue; after attending the services, she claimed to have felt more peace than she ever had growing up.[31] She converted to Judaism in 2014 and celebrated her bat mitzvah on her 27th birthday.[32]

Since converting to Judaism, Nichols has faced ongoing abuse for her beliefs, including anti-Semitism from a Conservative Party council candidate for the 2021 Warrington Borough Council election. The candidate sent a message via Twitter to Nichols saying “Keep the Aryan race going”.[33]

In 2021, it was reported that Nichols has post-traumatic stress disorder, having been forced to cut a parliamentary visit to Gibraltar short following a “mental health episode“.[34]

In 2022, Nichols opened up about her struggles with abusive messages and threats of violence she has faced, after a BBC investigation found that she was in the top 5 backbench MPs for receiving abusive and toxic tweets on Twitter.[35][36]

In a 2021 interview, Nichols stated that she identifies as bisexual.[37]

In October 2019, Nichols tweeted that a group of S.S. Lazio fans who had been filmed making Nazi salutes in Glasgow should “get their heads kicked in”. Nichols defended her comments in December that year: “These were people doing Nazi salutes on the streets of Britain… As a Jewish person whose grandfather fought in World War Two, ultimately sometimes I believe that fascism has to be physically confronted”.[28][29]

An article published in The Daily Telegraph in 2019 reported that Nichols had described members of the Green Party as “bourgeois scab fucks” and told one Twitter user, “Hope you lose your virginity”.[30]

[Wikipedia]

A Labour MP…what does that say about not only the Labour Party but the whole political system?

Update, 11 July 2024:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13623233/One-SIX-people-England-antidepressants-data-shows-quarter-population-country-drug.html

Update, 7 October 2024:

…AND… yet another one turns up…

Another non-Jewish pro-Jewish and pro-Israel loonie.

Update, 28 October 2024

That last loonie has been chucked off Twitter/X for violent abuse, so his crazed tweet is now unavailable, sadly.

Above photo shows yet another “antifascist” loonie, one Christopher Eccleston, apparently a well-known actor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Eccleston.

I had never heard of him but, now having read the Wikipedia entry, realize that I have seen him in both Inspector Morse and Poirot.

Apparently, “In his autobiography, Eccleston described chronic anorexiabody dysmorphia and depression, and said that he had considered suicide. Speaking about his poor mental health, he wrote that he was “a lifelong body hater”.[74] He was hospitalised in 2016 with severe clinical depression.[75]” [Wikipedia].

Update, 11 November 2024

Deleted Twitter. if you know me, massive.— Mike Stuchbery (@mikestuchbery.bsky.social) 6 November 2024 at 20:09

Pitiable fake “historian” Mike Stuchbery has apparently departed “permanently” from Twitter/X and has migrated to “Blue Sky”, where he can post “antifascist” messages unchallenged by anyone social-national, or knowledgeable about modern history; he can now continue to “report” anyone whose opinions he dislikes (Twitter just ignored him in recent years).

Sad and half-crazed Stuchbery, now living off the generous German social welfare system (generous enough for him to have, he says, “spent a few weeks in northern Italy” a while ago) has recently moved into a new apartment (presumably in Stuttgart) with a new girlfriend. He is still trying to beg money from mugs online, though.

As for “DaveAFAF”, once known as “Slatfascists”, the Mancunian loony “antifascist”…

Dave. Anti-Fascist As Feck. 𝕏 @DaveAFAF

David. Not using this cesspool now that the owner has ruined it. Find me where skies are blue – same username.

[“DaveAFAF” posting on Blue Sky].

So that idiot has also gone from Twitter/X. I read (true or not) that the police are now interested in some of his activities.

What about Jasna Badzak, the Balkan Fraud? Well, she has not tweeted since May 2024, and her attempted GoFundMe scam has not raised the £40,000 she wanted, but only £3,542, with the last mug-donation £25, some months ago. All other donations ceased nearly 6 months ago.

I have no idea whether Jasna Badzak has “shuffled off” in general, or just online, but quite likely the former.

“Dr. Dim” Stevens has not tweeted since May 2024, and only twice since February 2024.

A few others have “gone up the chimney” since they started to post and plot against me. #TenGreenBottles…

Update, 28 November 2024

Mentally-weird “grifter” and self-proclaimed “historian” and “journalist”, Mike Stuchbery (a stand-in temp schoolteacher a decade ago, sacked from that job after a short while, and “economically-inactive” since then) continues to try to grift from his new online platform on Bluesky, but is now once again, for the (?) 20th or 30th time, making himself out to be more than the straw man he is:

I feature (very, very, very inaccurately) in said documentary. If Elon gets me hurt by some deranged chud, the noise I'll make is unbelievable. leftfootforward.org/2024/11/elon…

Mike Stuchbery 💀🍷 (@mikestuchbery.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T07:43:48.555Z

Stuchbery threatening Elon Musk. As the Germans might say, unglaublich! I am sure that Musk must be quaking in his boots, as straw man Stuchbery threatens to, er, “make a noise“… Quite funny, really. Keep taking the tablets…

A reminder about how Stuchbery often makes empty threats:

(in fact, loonie Stuchbery did know about me, having tweeted many times about me; he’s a joke).

Update, 11 February 2025

Just saw this loonie tweeter again:

Even uses their horrible insult-language. Total loonie.

Update, 18 February 2025

Online pseudo-political “grifter” “Supertanskiii” is, apparently, a SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder”) sufferer, as well.

Update, 21 February 2025

Looks as if Matt Goodwin is finally catching up with me…

People on the Woke Left are the most likely to say they’ve suffered from mental health problems and to say they feel sad, lonely, stressed and depressed

[Matt Goodwin]

Update, 15 March 2025

Jasna Badzak, the “Balkan Fraud”, no longer tweets. She has not tweeted for 10 months. She may even have “snuffed it”, in the vernacular. Either way, another one of my enemies and horribly obsessed trolls gone, it seems. #TenGreenBottles

Paging “Dr. Dim” (Tim) Stevens of Essex (see this blog post, ante); he (himself a mental case, as he publicly admitted online) is a fervent advocate of electro-convulsive “therapy”…

“Dr. Dim”, possibly partly-Jewish (it was never established for sure) was one of the cabal of pro-Israel and pro-Jewish lobby Twitter trolls who often mentioned me and usually insulted me on Twitter and elsewhere. He even made up completely contrived, completely non-existent “threats” allegedly made by me, Alison Chabloz, and another, and apparently reported me (and others) to the police (who, however, realized that the supposed threats were false; the police never even contacted me, though Stevens was not arrested as he should have been (his NHS employers did apologize on his behalf, though).

I do not know whether “Dr. Dim” Stevens is still around, or whether, as he feared, he developed early dementia and/or died of cancer. Still, he’s gone from Twitter/X, having not tweeted for over 9 months. Good riddance. #TenGreenBottles.

Update, 21 June 2025

He is still supporting Israel, even its Gaza quasi-genocide.

Update, 2 October 2025

…and the one below saw fit to tweet, after either my 2016 disbarment or my free speech trial in 2023, in a hostile manner; I think his tweets said that I should have been given a far harsher sentence in 2024 (sentencing hearing). Apparently a retired cop of some kind, he purports to be an expert on policing etc:

[“Folks today I chilled & I drove for 2/3hrs for one of my best friends memorial; en-route I thought a lot privately; my heart is heavy we will never talk again he stood by me for 50yrs when I was broken & after when I repaired myself I’ve no real family & he attended my police passing out parade & cheered me on; some others I lived with in Children’s home at the same time as I joined the police sadly were in YOI & prison I had to work & try hard not to take that route & I didn’t I done why some do as I grew up with so many broken children; I’ll be honest I feel a little lost; I came home & looked to see what was happening in the world & all I saw on here was Anger Hatred & Bitterness I Fucking Hate what this platform has become & some of the accounts I so often see posting their constant angry shite; The only positive? Over 15yrs I’ve been on here I’ve interacted with many some of the most kindest caring of people & on my low days yes even Norm has some many of you have posted the nicest posts many made me feel humble; in fact it’s the main reason I’ve stayed on this platform; some of you will know over recent years I had had enough & was going to close my account & just piss off but I was always talked out of it by you Herbert’s;

Some of vilest of people on this platform often post their Bile Anger Hatred & Bitterness to attract huge numbers of clicks to earn from what’s called ‘Monitorisation’ many of those are Faceless Fuckers who hide behind a Pseudonym often hide behind a picture of a monkey or other photo but rarely not of them & they don’t care who they attack & hurt it’s all about how much money they can earn the damage they cause & leave behind? They really just don’t care; Those of you who have been kind are kind & you interact politely & you are of the best of us; those who I have described above Fuck you as it your types that have reduced this platform from the once pleasant place it was & they often now take TwitterX into the sewers!

Fuck you as it your types that have reduced this platform from the once pleasant place it was & they often now take TwitterX into the sewers! I hope tomorrow I wake in a better mood than I’m currently in cos I’ve really had my belly full of some of the shite on here! To all the decent people on TwitterX I wish you a good week ahead & God Bless You“]

Loonie.

Tweets about kindness etc, after having thrown the first stone at me, someone he had never met or, I imagine, ever heard of (until the msm reported on me).

Hypocrite. Or idiot.

Loonie.

Wikipedia has an entry for that one:

[“Police Review described Brennan as probably being the best known face and voice in British policing and said that “Protect the Protectors” was the primary reason the government of the day reversed its policy on issuing police officers with a side-handled baton which had been originally refused.[citation needed]

Some members of the Police Federation, the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) and the Home Office were critical of Brennan’s outspoken positions.[citation needed] One Police Federation member[who?] was quoted as saying that Brennan “gives outrageous soundbites and simplistic solutions to complex issues. I don’t think he represents the views of many officers.”[2]

In 2013, The Independent offered critical coverage questioning whether Brennan is a convenient “rent-a-mouth” for the media pointing out his propensity to comment on a wide array of matters unrelated to policing, ranging from asylum-seekers to prison gyms. The newspaper also suggested that some in the police force viewed Brennan as “an unelected, unrepresentative, hardline reactionary.”[2]]

[Wikipedia]

Actually, I do not disagree with all of his tweets that I have seen, but his shameless kow-towing to the Jew/Israel lobby after either my free speech trial or my (wrongful/unlawful) disbarment of 2016 makes him ridiculous, in my view.

Update, 27 October 2025

Another one…(or two)

Update, 19 December 2025

Another one…

I happened to notice this piece from 2019 by one Lee “Budgie” Barnett, in which the individual relates how he had a “breakdown” about a decade ago from now:

That individual is or was a Jew who seemed, judging from his cautious tweets, somehow to know something of my political history going back, it appeared, to the 1970s.

Looking at his Twitter account (years ago), I noticed that he seemed to live not far from my own one-time home at Little Venice, London; either that neighbourhood, or nearby St. John’s Wood. During the years 2014-2020, he tweeted about me occasionally, talking to various other Jew-Zionists.

I notice also that the individual’s tweets and other online activity stopped about three years ago, so it looks as though he will not be chatting to other Jews about me in future.

EU Elections 2019 in Review: UKIP

UKIP was finished off finally by the 2019 EU elections.

UKIP received a national vote of 3.6%. It lost all of its MEPs.

I was never very taken by UKIP, with its unwillingness to take on the Jewish Zionist element, with its obvious “conservative nationalist” orientation, with its unwillingness to go fully social-national (or even to the extent of Marine le Pen’s Front National), with its multi-ethnic candidate list and Conservative-lite socio-economic policies. However, UKIP was a stepping-stone to a future, and was at least non-System, though aspiring to join the other System parties (rather than defeat them and then annihilate them).

I have blogged since well before 2017, and tweeted (until barred/expelled from Twitter), that UKIP peaked in 2014 and, after having been cheated by FPTP voting at the 2015 General Election, was sliding to irrelevance and oblivion.

My analysis has turned out to be correct. After Nigel Farage left UKIP, it was led, poorly, by others (Diane James, Paul Nuttall, Henry Bolton) before being taken over by Gerard Batten.

Batten is, in my view, UKIP’s best leader since Farage, but has made the mistake of tying UKIP’s precarious fortunes to “Tommy Robinson”, and also to “alt-Right” wastes of space such as “Sargon of Akkad” (Carl Benjamin), “Prison Planet” (Paul Watson) etc. This was a massive strategic error.

First of all, from my point of view, both Tommy Robinson and the “alt-Right” bad jokes are pro-Jewish, or at least pro-Zionist, pro-Israel. Leaving even that aside and focussing on electoral fundamentals, the UKIP vote relied on nationally-oriented “normal” people, mostly middle-class or working-class (to use somewhat outdated terms). Suddenly, UKIP is associated with Tommy Robinson and thus, by implication, with the tattooed beer-bottle-throwers of the (now defunct) “English Defence League” [EDL]; also with those rather unhealthy-seeming souls of the “alt-Right” vlogging scene, with their extreme “libertarian” views. They always seem to be people who live in darkened rooms with their computer screens, eating fast food and probably drinking carbonated beverages… Once Joe Public associated the likes of those basement-dwellers, and also the EDL-style bottle-throwers and brawlers, with UKIP, UKIP was dead in the water electorally.

True, the NSDAP had the SA, but they were a (more or less) disciplined force, with a command structure, under orders, and guided by both their superiors and political principles.

Tommy Robinson stood for the EU Parliament not as UKIP candidate but as himself, and received c.39,000 votes, though that was a vote-share of only 2.2% [but see Notes, below]. UKIP also contested the North West England election, receiving 3.6% of the votes. The UKIP list for the South West England constituency (which list included “Sargon of Akkad” Carl Benjamin) received a vote of 3.2%.

There is now nowhere for UKIP to go. Its present order of battle includes 29,000 party members (2018 statistic), 1 member of the House of Lords (out of 780), 2 members of the Welsh Assembly (out of 60), and 62 local councillors (out of 20,249).

UKIP cannot even go social-national now, because it has tried to set itself up as non-“racist” etc. Its “conservative nationalism” has been taken over by Farage and Brexit Party. It carries 26 years of baggage. As a party, it is defunct.

I should urge UKIP members who want a real way forward to read my blogs about, for example, creating a social-national base area in England.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_Batten

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#North_West_England_(8_seats)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#South_West_England_(6_seats)

https://gab.com/forBritainMovement/posts/ZUpGd0FLZktQdHFEbHg3cVIwNTEzZz09

Update, 18 September 2019

UKIP sacked its last leader, Gerald Batten, and is now “led” by someone called Richard Braine [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Braine_(politician)], who has decided not to bother to attend his own party conference because only 450 tickets were sold instead of the expected 900!

What a total deadhead! Apart from anything else, Adolf Hitler’s first public speech was heard by only a handful, and the next, more organized one, attracted an audience of only 70! This Braine fellow (I had not heard of him until today) has no respect for his own loyal members.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/17/ukip-leader-accused-of-insulting-party-over-conference-no-show

UKIP has been washed up for at least 4 years. What surprises me more than anything is that even 450 people were willing to pay out for conference tickets, travel, and maybe hotels, to attend a conference for UKIP, which now stands for precisely nothing and is polling at under 1%.

Notes from the Peterborough By-Election

Background

Fiona Onasanya has drunk her last draught from the taxpayers’ trough and has now been removed as MP, the Peterborough seat having been declared vacant on 1 May 2019. We therefore move to the question of who will replace her.

Peterborough

The constituency covers the majority of the city of Peterborough and some rural areas to the East. I myself have visited the city but once, in 1975, and the city I saw in a few hours and 44 years ago is a very different place now. The population increased about 50% in the years 1971-1991 alone, since when it has increased again hugely. The city of 1971 had about 100,000 inhabitants but now has about 200,000 and still increasing. Even that does not tell the full story.

A few years ago, Peterborough was said to have the second-fastest population growth of any city in the UK. In 2007, the Chief Constable of Cambridgeshire noted that, as recently as 2003, 95% of the teenagers in the county had been white (ie English), whereas the figure in 2007 was radically different and the population “diverse”. What is that figure now, I wonder? 50%? Probably far below that.

The true scale of the change is probably covered up. The city’s inhabitants are now 82% white (officially), but many of the white inhabitants are of recent Eastern European origin.

Peterborough constituency and by-election candidates

15 candidates are declared at close of list:

https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true

Conservative Party

The constituency has been a Con/Lab marginal for decades, with the two parties usually but not always within a few points of each other. The Liberal Democrats have come third in every election for decades, except in 2015 when the LibDems came fourth after UKIP (there was no UKIP candidate in 2017).

Stewart Jackson was the Conservative MP from 2005 until 2017, his vote share gradually declining from 42.1% in 2005 to 39.7% in 2015 before, ironically, peaking at 46.8% in 2017, in which year he was replaced by Labour’s Fiona Onasanya (she got 48.1%).

I have blogged previously about Fiona Onasanya, who has wisely decided not to bother standing again (Labour has another candidate, but Fiona Onasanya could, in theory, have stood as an Independent, despite her conviction and brief imprisonment).

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/21/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-fiona-onasanya-story/

The Conservative candidate for the by-election, Paul Bristow, is a local businessman who says that “I run my own public affairs and PR business centred around the medical device industry.” I dare say that Bristow, though one of the most likely to succeed candidates, will have an uphill struggle, the way things are with a Conservative Party in meltdown; I also wonder whether voters will want a “multikulti” public relations man (see Bristow’s website in the Notes, below) as their MP. We shall see.

Labour Party

The Labour candidate is Lisa Forbes. A trade union official, she was Labour candidate for Peterborough in 2015, at which election she apparently fought a fairly strong campaign, finishing second with 35.6% of the vote (the Con vote was 39.6%). For the by-election, she beat one other woman in a contest held using a women-only shortlist.

Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change UK

The LibDem candidate is Beki Sellick, about whom a local newspaper reports:

The Liberal Democrats have selected Beki Sellick as their Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Peterborough. The engineer fought the seat in the 2017 election, finishing third with 1,597 votes. She said: “I’m an ordinary person who’s had a variety of jobs – nationalised and privatised, shop floor and management, full-time and part-time, redundant. And then I started my own business in Peterborough two years ago. I chair our residents association where we run a monthly community café.”

The LibDems (same candidate) got a vote share of only 3.3% in the General Election of 2017, which result was even below the 3.8% they scored in 2015 (cf. 2010—19.6%, and 2005— 14.5%). I cannot see the LibDems winning. They are probably fighting for fourth or fifth place.

One interesting aspect is that Change UK, the new pro-EU and pro-Israel party, is not putting up a candidate. I read somewhere that the very strongly pro-EU and anti-Brexit parties (LibDems, Greens, Change UK) were going to not stand against each other in Peterborough and elsewhere, so as not to split the Remainer vote. Well, it looks like someone forgot to tell the Greens, who are standing, their candidate being one Joseph Wells, about whom nothing much is known.

The Green Party website says about their by-election candidate: “Candidate for Peterborough. Joseph Wells. No Candidate [sic] information at this time. Please check back.”

What a joke the Green Party is! Here we have a by-election held after a scandal. The ideal place for a small party to get some publicity and maybe save its deposit, yet on the day the nominations close, the useless creatures cannot even put out a few basic facts about the poor sap they have chosen as their doomed candidate! Not that it makes much difference: the Greens got 1.8% in Peterborough in 2017. Like the pro-Remain and pro-immigration LibDems, the Greens are unlikely to do well in an area which was over 60% Leave and where many of the English people feel (and have been) swamped by mass migration or “migration-invasion”.

The list closed at 1600 hrs. It is now 1611 as I write. At 1555, 5 minutes before closure of the list, Mark Pack, who does LibDem publicity, was tweeting this!

https://twitter.com/LibDemNewswire/status/1126500859070885888

The LibDems are as useless as the Greens and the new joke party, Change UK!

What is more significant is that Change UK have effectively chickened-out of this contest. Either that or they are just too incompetent even to register a candidate for the only by-election being held! Either way (and as I have previously blogged), they are a total waste of space.

Below, two of the wastes of space of “Change UK”:

So there it is: Change UK are too frightened or too incompetent to put up a candidate at Peterborough (voters might like to remember that at the 23 May EU election too…and at the next general election).

This means that, at the by-election, the Remain or pro-EU vote, which at best is probably no more than 40% of the electorate anyway, will be split between Greens and LibDems (and Labour). Bearing in mind that, in 2017, the combined vote for the LibDems and Greens was only 5.1%, it may be that most Remainers in Peterborough will vote Labour; neither of the two smaller parties has any real chance.

Minor candidates

UKIP is standing, thus splitting the hardcore Brexit vote, but is running at only about 3% in nationwide opinion polling. The candidate is John Whitby, a former UKIP councillor, who came last out of 5 candidates in the recent local election for Fletton and Stanground ward, Peterborough (he got 320 votes out of about 2,000):

Hard to predict UKIP’s vote share at the by-election, except that it will be below 5%. I am guessing that it will be around 2%.

The former journalist and UKIP MEP, Patrick O’Flynn, who now fights for the (post-1990) Social Democratic Party (SDP), is standing, but I would be surprised if he were to get above 1% of the vote. In a way, he was a loss to UKIP, in that he was probably one of UKIP’s more intelligent leaders, particularly on economic issues.

Why O’Flynn has chosen to ally himself with the SDP dead parrot party, God knows. Maybe because he did not want to be an Independent. He, in himself, is not a bad candidate, but the SDP is just silly: in 1992, it put up 10 candidates at the General Election. Total vote was over 35,000 or 0.1%, but individually they did not do badly at average 3,500 votes each. However, since then, their few candidates have registered not thousands, not even hundreds, of votes (at the General Election 2017, 6 SDP candidates stood, and got a total of 469 votes, about 75 votes each; in national terms, statistical zero).

Now we come to the bottom of the barrel: the Christian People’s Alliance (not to be confused with the Christian Party Alliance; yes I know…Judean Popular Front etc…) is standing a Dr. Rogers (not I think a medical doctor, but someone with a Ph.D who is a local teacher). I sometimes puzzle over why people even bother standing for silly no-account organizations like this. Still there it is. He may get 50 or 100 votes, who knows?

There are 2 Independents.

One Goldspink is standing for the faux-“nationalist” English Democrats.

There are candidates for “Common Good” and “UK European Union Party”.

There is a “Renew” candidate. There was one in the recent Newport West by-election: that candidate got nearly 4% of the vote there.

“Howling Lord Hope” of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party needs no introduction: the fat little man wearing a white or yellow suit is a veteran of dozens of elections and in fact was actually elected (unopposed) in a local council election at Ashburton, Devon, many years ago. I imagine that he will beat some of the Peterborough candidates who take themselves more seriously.

Brexit Party

Brexit Party has burst upon the political scene (or should that be “swamp”) and may change everything just by existing. Needless to say (to regular or frequent readers of this blog), I would never “support” a party which is not fully social-national, let alone one that has a “Friends of Israel” section already…Having said that, anything that helps to fragment the “three party” or “two party” FPTP scam, that is conventional politics in the UK, has my blessing.

Brexit Party is mushrooming and now has somewhere around 100,000 “supporters” (by any other name, members) who have, apparently, each donated between £5 and £200,000 (the average is about £30, giving Brexit Party somewhere in the region of £5 million in battle funds).

Below, Nigel Farage, the leader of Brexit Party, arriving in Newport, Wales, to a rapturous and almost ecstatic reception:

and here is a comment about both Brexit Party and Change UK rallies (well, Brexit Party’s 2,000-strong Peterborough rally and Change UK’s pathetic almost empty London meeting…)

another tweeter:

I have blogged recently about the effect of Brexit Party on UK elections from now on:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/05/what-now-for-general-election-2019/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/the-uk-local-elections-have-been-held-my-view/

These were the results of the 2 May 2019 local elections in Peterborough:

Brexit Party of course not standing.

The bookmakers have Brexit Party favourite to win the by-election: just odds-on, but closely followed at 11/10 by Labour. The Conservatives are on 20/1, the LibDems 50/1, Change UK 66/1 (rather ungenerous since they now seem not to be standing!), 100/1 bar. So Greens and UKIP are both 100/1. William Hill are similar but more generous. They have SDP at 125/1 and Green at 150/1.

A week ago, Labour were the favourites. That though was before Nigel Farage and Brexit Party had 2,000 people attend a rally in Peterborough for which, it seems, tickets were sold at £10 a pop. This is not British politics as we know it…most System candidates would struggle to get 200 (or, in some cases, 20) voters to turn out for a meeting where entrance is free!

Britain Elects has, a minute ago, tweeted the following polling for the EU elections:

Those figures might inform us re. the Peterborough by-election, except that Change UK is not, it seems, a factor.

The Brexit Party candidate is Mike Greene, a multi-millionaire businessman and considerable local philanthropist, who supports 40 local charities and good causes. He comes from modest origins and is a local resident who was brought up in or near the city. He was a Conservative until recently.

Conclusion and forecast

Unless something absolutely stunning happens in the next 4 weeks, this is a straight fight between Brexit Party and Labour. The Conservatives seem to be toast. In fact, now that that is plainly the case, I should expect many more Conservative voters to vote tactically for Brexit Party, in order to keep out Labour.

The Remain vote will probably gravitate to the LibDems, but the Greens will take quite a few Remain votes. Other parties can be more or less disregarded.

There is also the point that, on 23 May, halfway between now and the by-election, the EU elections are expected to be a triumph for Farage and the Brexit Party. The Conservatives are forecast to come 3rd or even 4th.

It looks as though this will be the Westminster victory that might launch the —as yet, policy-free— Brexit Party. Second place will go to Labour. Third? Either LibDems or Conservatives. Quite possibly the LibDems.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona_Onasanya

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/21/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-fiona-onasanya-story/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterborough

https://news.sky.com/story/former-tory-businessman-revealed-as-brexit-party-candidate-in-peterborough-by-election-11715137

https://www.paulbristow.org.uk/about-paul-bristow

https://labourlist.org/2019/02/labour-selects-lisa-forbes-to-replace-fiona-onasanya-in-peterborough/

https://my.greenparty.org.uk/candidates/106132

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-by-election-christian-parties-alliance-confirm-candidate-1-8921620

https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/local-elections/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_O%27Flynn

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK,_1990%E2%80%93present)

https://cpaparty.net/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howling_Laud_Hope

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election#Candidates_and_campaign

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/05/what-now-for-general-election-2019/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/the-uk-local-elections-have-been-held-my-

view/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7198329/Labours-secret-plan-to-lure-migrants.html

Update, 21 May 2019

Current betting as of today (21 May) is: Brexit Party as odds-on favourites (8/13), though challenged fairly closely by Labour on 5/4. The rest of the field is comprised of also-rans, it appears: Conservatives 20/1, LibDems 50/1, and 125/1 bar those four.

Update, 23 May 2019

There has been movement in the betting market for the by-election: Brexit Party hardening and now at 8/15; Labour less firm and out to 7/4; Conservatives at 9/1 (from 20/1 only two days ago); LibDems sliding to 70/1; 125/1 bar those four.

https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

Update, 24 May 2019

Just saw the clip below from BBC News. It exemplifies the BBC way of doing bias in political coverage. The whole clip lasts well over 2 minutes (2:16), out of which Mike Greene, the candidate for Brexit Party, was given 5 or 6 seconds! Brexit Party is way ahead in the betting and polling for the by-election, but the BBC chose to present the three System party candidates as the “serious” ones, each of whom got a number of short slots within the clip. Even the lady standing for the LibDems got two or three slots, despite the fact that the LibDems have no chance, are 70/1 to win, and when the same lady stood in Peterborough for the LibDems at the 2017 General Election, she only got 3.3% of votes cast!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48356295/peterborough-by-election-candidates-debate

I am not a “supporter” of Brexit Party, as such, but the BBC’s bias against it is really showing now.

Update, 26 May 2019

By-election betting now shows Brexit Party hardening to 2/5, and now strong odds-on favourite; Labour slightly out at 15/8; Conservatives, who went from 20/1 to 9/1, are now again sliding and are at 12/1; LibDems in from 70/1 to 50/1; still 125/1 bar those four.

Update, 27 May 2019

After the stellar victory of Brexit Party in the EU elections, the odds on Brexit Party smashing the Peterborough by-election have hardened again, now to 4/11. Labour’s dispiriting results in the EU elections have lengthened its odds to 5/2. The Conservatives’ odds have slid back to 16/1, whereas the LibDems’ odds, also at 16/1, are hugely shorter now (they were 50/1 only yesterday!); 125/1 bar those four.

As my blog, written 9 May, said, this is a contest between Brexit Party and Labour, but now the LibDems are complicating the issue. If all anti-Brexit voters gathered behind one candidate, the Brexit Party could not win. The question arises: which one party and candidate? The Remain-oriented side is split, and there are other issues. It may well be that many Con voters and others will switch to LibDem for the by-election, but many Labour voters will recall the LibDems’ dreadful and dishonest support for the Con Coalition 2010-2015. My prediction is that the Brexit Party is going to win this by a goodly margin in the end.

Update, 29 May 2019

The betting continues to firm for Brexit Party. Now 1/5 odds-on (from 4/11). Labour has weakened to 4/1 (from 5/2). The LibDems are still at 16/1, but the Conservatives are still sliding, now at 20/1 again (from 16/1). As far as the bookmakers are concerned, it’s all over.

As my initial blog post speculated, Conservative voters are now flocking to Brexit Party, either out of conviction or because it is the best way to deny Labour the prize. It may be that, after the Fiona Onasanya fiasco, Labour is badly damaged. The candidate for Labour seems to be not very intelligent, which hardly helps (though I understand that she is at least anti-Zionist. On can rarely have everything.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/nigel-farage-sets-his-sights-on-party-winning-peterborough-byelection

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/29/peterborough-byelection-labour-and-tories-fear-brexit-party-surge

Update, 30 May 2019

Latest betting: Brexit Party still strong odds-on favourite at 1/5, Labour still 4/1 (both unchanged from yesterday), but LibDems and Cons have now both slid to 25/1. 125/1 bar those four.

Update, 31 May 2019

Brexit Party still at 1/5, Labour still at 4/1. LibDems have recovered to 12/1 after opinion polling suggesting that, nationwide, the LibDems are now, suddenly, the most popular party in England and Wales! Conservatives are available at 25/1 for the by-election. 125/1 bar those four.

Meanwhile, the newspapers converge on Peterborough to seek opinions…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7092845/Peterborough-voted-replace-disgraced-MP-favourites-parties-vocal-Brexit.html

A disillusioned Tory, his message is clear that the Lib Dems ‘may sneak in here’. He says Peterborough is ‘an absolute dump’ with poverty rife. People are so poor they think twice about buying even a multi-pack of crisps.” [Daily Mail]

Back in Lincoln Road, at a cafe bar, I talk to Janet Tobolik, who is 65 and half Polish. A devout Eurosceptic, she says only one party cares about Peterborough’s problems. She is voting UKIP. ‘There is rubbish on the streets. This is my country and you suddenly find a settee in the middle of the road. Peterborough is a slum. They drop everything these immigrants.’” [Daily Mail]

Down the street, a 73-year-old man who called himself Mr Dhillon, said: ‘I have lived here since 1967. I always supported Labour. But they and the Tories have done no good for Peterborough. I think we should leave the EU and then we can start again.’”

“Yes, as it stands, it is Farage who is on a roll. He is hoping to bury his opponents in Peterborough, just like Catherine of Aragon, and the odds are hugely on his Brexit Party’s side. Next Thursday we’ll discover if the people of this city will change the future of British politics.” [Daily Mail]

Update, 2 June 2019

The betting market has moved as far as Labour and the LibDems are concerned. Brexit Party is still strong odds-on favourite at 1/5, but Labour is now closer at 10/3 and the LibDems , who were 12/1 yesterday and 70/1 only a week ago, now move to 9/1. The Conservatives are still on 25/1; and 125/1 bar those four.

As I commented earlier elsewhere, the battle for second place at Peterborough is intensifying. The Brexit Party seems unchallenged now for 1st place. The only way for Brexit Party to lose would be if those opposed to Farage all clustered round one other party standing. That is obviously not happening. Labour is fighting hard for the seat, but the LibDems are “playing a blinder” bearing in mind that they only got 3.3% in 2017 and 3,8% in 2015. Even at the height of 2010 Cleggmania, they only managed (just under) 20%.

The Conservatives are toast and have no chance. Labour is battling not to be toast. A 2nd place at Peterborough would keep Labour in the game nationally. If Labour drops to 3rd at Peterborough, heads may roll.

Brexit Party tweets cleverly: their tweet (below) is in fact correct, but from the purely electoral point of view helps Brexit Party, because Labour is still the main enemy of Brexit Party in this Peterborough by-election. Tactically, Brexit Party very much knows how to run a campaign.

Update, 3 June 2019

Three days before polling day.

The Guardian reports from Peterborough [link below]. Well worth reading.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/02/peterborough-prepares-for-byelection-that-could-see-first-brexit-party-mp

“…many Peterborians feel life is getting worse; nothing catastrophic, but a noticeable unravelling. Stagnation of living standards and diminishing prospects, as much as Brexit and migration, are likely to shape how they vote.

“…people also sense deeper changes to the social fabric, caused in part by the march of buy-to-let property investors, the retreat of the state from providing housing for the working class and ever-shrinking funding for maintaining the fabric of neighbourhoods. With Brexit dominating the byelection, there is little room to debate much of that.

The BBC has also posted a not very illuminating analysis:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48300812

As for the betting market, Brexit Party is now even more firmly odds-on, prohibitively priced at 1/6. Labour has gone out again, returning to 4/1. The LibDems are now also further out at 10/1, while the Conservatives have all but given up the ghost at 33/1 (out from 25/1).

The LibDems were always going to be on the back foot in Leave-friendly Peterborough (in the 2016 Referendum, 61% voted Leave, on a high turnout of over 72%), but their apparent lack of success is a warning light about taking their 2019 EU elections performance and more recent opinion polling too seriously (particularly now that it seems that pollsters have been deliberately suppressing Brexit Party in some polling).

When push comes to shove, can the LibDems hack it? Their performance electorally over many years and in government from 2010-2015 would suggest not.

As to the Conservatives, I suggest that my initial analysis was right: former Conservative voters are backing Brexit Party both for itself and because they have lost confidence in the Conservatives as a potentially-winning party. A Conservative vote in Peterborough is now a wasted vote. The tactical option to keep Labour out is therefore to vote Brexit Party. They are obviously deserting the Conservatives in droves; incredible when you consider that Peterborough has had a Conservative MP for most of the years 1945-2019. A symptom of the general and possible terminal decline of the Conservative Party.

Labour is the only party now likely to come close to Brexit Party in the by-election. The “blacks and browns” (etc), comprising a fifth of the inhabitants, will vote Labour if they vote at all. Remain voters are more likely to vote LibDem now. The non-Brexit-Party vote is thus split. Brexit Party may get 50% of the vote, it may get only 40%, but it does seem likely to win.

Note: in the few hours since I wrote the above update for 3 June, the betting market has moved again. Now Brexit Party is in at 1/7, Labour has gone out to 5/1, the LibDems have slumped to 14/1 and the Conservatives are still in outer darkness at 33/1 (125/1 bar those four).

It is pretty clear that the punters and bookmakers have decided that Brexit Party is unassailable at Peterborough. I think that Brexit Party will be elected, and maybe on as much as 50% of the vote.

The Labour candidate has been (supposedly) damaged by her (again, supposedly) “anti-Semitic” online statements of some time ago (my problem with her is that she has recanted, and cravenly “apologized” to the Jew-Zionist lobby). She will probably get 2nd place, and on a vote of about 25%.

The LibDems have no realistic chance now. They will be looking to get the bulk of the Remain vote in a city where most people (61%) voted Leave in 2016, and where the LibDem core vote has been between 3% and 4% for several years (and even in 2010 was only 19% or so). I shall be surprised if the LibDems can get to 2nd place in this by-election. My guess as to their vote share would be somewhere around 20%.

Conservatives? They are just going through the motions. If their vote exceeds 10%, I shall be surprised.

…and the msm “journalists” are still making assumptions based on their belief that the System parties (LibLabCon) are eternal and immortal. Those parties will all be dead soon. “Protest vote” does not begin to cover what is happening.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-03/protest-vote-expected-in-peterborough-by-election/

Update, 4 June 2019

Early in the morning. The betting is now 1/9 Brexit Party, 6/1 Labour, 14/1 LibDems, 33/1 Conservatives. It is already over.

ps. this tweeter makes a good overall point:

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1134879812621864960

Update, 5 June 2019

So here we are, the day before polling day. The betting has moved in a little. Brexit Party still heavily odds-on but a little out from yesterday (1/7 from 1/9); Labour has come in to 9/2 (from 6/1); the LibDems are at 14/1 (from 16/1), Conservatives still 33/1 (125/1 bar those four).

There was a late attempt in the Guardian to connect Mike Greene, the Brexit Party candidate, with the retention-of-freehold-rights scam/scandal, but it seems to have had little impact for various reasons, not least that 99% of Peterborough voters never read the Guardian.

Brexit Party looks, on the face of it, as if it is going to walk this one.

Update, 6 June 2019

The moment of truth. The polls are open. Brexit Party is still at 1/7 in the betting odds, with Labour again firmer at 4/1; the LibDems and Conservatives have settled together at 20/1.

and at 1330 on polling day…

The betting has altered “in play”, so to speak: Brexit Party still at 1/7 and looking on the face of it like a shoo-in to win; Labour firmed today, to 7/2; as to the others, both the LibDems and the Conservatives have been sliding, the LibDems to 25/1, the Cons to 50/1. (125/1 bar those four).

If the current betting reflects what will be announced tonight or tomorrow, this is disastrous for the Conservatives, who not only provided the MP for the constituency for most of the past 80 years but also had the tactical advantage of the recent history of Labour in Peterborough: Fiona Onasanya etc: https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/21/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-fiona-onasanya-story/

It is clear that the Conservatives are going to go down very badly. How badly, we wait to see. This may prove to be the most significant by-election since 1945.

(as a light ending, until the result, I reproduce—see below—the most stupid, also the funniest tweet I saw today!)

https://twitter.com/MatthewMahabadi/status/1136626475174699009

Update at 1615 hrs on polling day:

Betting: 1/6 Brexit Party, 11/4 (from 7/2) Labour.

As I predicted weeks ago, it is between these two now. Labour struggling hard not to be too badly beaten. Many of the Remain votes will go Labour, and almost all of the votes of the blacks, browns etc, and those of any immigrants eligible to vote.

The LibDems are only 40/1 in the by-election betting now. Cons 50/1, others 125/1 or more. As usual, the LibDems talk a good game but rarely follow through. They wasted their chance of getting proportional representation in 2010. That sank their party and many of Britain’s people.

Just saw this, illustrating my point that Labour’s core vote is now “the blacks and browns”:

Aftermath, 7 June 2019

Labour won, unexpectedly (and because of the organized ethnic minority vote, including postal vote), and on 31% of the votes cast (Brexit Party got 29%).

My post-poll thoughts are here:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/06/07/peterborough-by-election-post-poll-analysis-and-thoughts/

What Now for General Election 2019?

Introduction and background

I have blogged within the past day about the result of the UK local elections:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/the-uk-local-elections-have-been-held-my-view/

We have seen what happened in those elections:

  • the Conservative Party humiliated and suffering a defeat worse than many (but not I) anticipated;
  • the Labour Party, though losing few seats (82), also humiliated, in that, at this point in the conventional electoral cycle, the norm is for the governing party to lose and possibly lose heavily, but for the official Opposition party to make gains, perhaps considerable gains;
  • the Liberal Democrats, who have not, in general, recovered since their rout at the 2015 General Election (and who in fact did worse at the 2017 General Election in terms of popular vote share —7.4% in 2017 as against 7.9% in 2015— though better in terms of House of Commons seats —12, up from 8), had a “good” result in these local elections, more than doubling the number of LibDem councillors.

Local councillors elected (only about a third of the over 20,000 total were in contest this time) were 3,561 (Con), 2,023 (Lab) and 704 (LibDem); others (mainly Independents) elected numbered 1,310, a large increase.

The totals of local government seats now held (mostly council seats) by the three main System parties: Con 7,615, Lab 6,327, LibDems 2,576.

The 2019 local elections gave the System parties the following vote shares: Con 28%, Lab 28%, LibDems 19%, Others (and spoiled votes) 25%.

The electoral swing percentages: 7% down for Con, 1% down for Lab, and 8% up for the LibDems.

It can be seen from the above that these elections were disastrous for the Conservatives, not successful for Labour. As to the LibDems, their upsurge was mainly a protest vote by pro-Remain former Conservative voters. Not very important. I do not want to waste more time than I have already on washed-up UKIP or on the Green protest vote.

Had the Nigel Farage vehicle, the Brexit Party, been contesting the local elections, the Conservative and Labour parties would have done very much worse, the LibDems about the same (their votes coming exclusively from Remainers and from those who think that mass immigration actually somehow benefits the people of the UK).

The 2019 EU election

It is now too late for the EU election not to be held in the UK. The pathetic “deal” cobbled together (as I write this, not quite agreed between Theresa May and Corbyn) will not be able to prevent the EU election happening. Thus Brexit Party comes into play.

Look at the film clip below. Nigel Farage arriving at a rally in Newport, Wales, on 30 April 2019. His reception is not just warm or supportive; it is ecstatic, an ovation by followers who seem almost to worship him.

Reminiscent of the entry of Adolf Hitler into the speech hall at Nuremberg in 1934, as shown in Triumph of the Will [dir. Leni Riefenstahl, 1935]. None of the substance and depth, of course, but superficially rather similar.

Opinion polls: Brexit Party was recently running at about 30% (2 May) and may by now be higher, maybe even 35%. That figure, though, relates purely to the upcoming EU elections

As regards Westminster elections, Brexit Party was running at 14% a few days ago, but it might well rise, perhaps considerably, from there. Labour is on about 30% and Conservatives around 25%.

Brexit Party is pretty much the only game in town as regards the EU election in the UK. Indeed, if Conservative/Labour do agree some unsatisfactory last-minute and cobbled-together “deal” to put to the EU, i.e. “Brexit In Name Only”, Brexit Party might well do even better on 23 May.

Possible General Election 2019

The System parties are assuming that, if some kind of limited faux-Brexit is presented to the British people, with or without a fake “Second Referendum” or “People’s Vote”, that that will shoot the Brexit Party’s fox. I’m not so sure.

There is huge dissatisfaction around, not only around Brexit (from both main directions), but also around the continuing other issues that bedevil the UK: the continuing low levels of pay and “welfare” (social security), overcrowded rail, poorly maintained roads, the spending cuts of a decade now impacting services such as NHS and police; immigration is continuing on a very large scale, too.

The msm and Westminster Bubble crowd have not fully caught up with what is happening. Look again at the Con, Lab and LibDem local results. Labour did not do well in terms of pressing ahead, but did not much slip back. The Conservatives suffered a really big hit. The LibDems did well mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.

In any 2019 General Election, the Conservatives, under whoever is their new leader, would face a three-front war: against Labour, LibDems and Brexit Party. It has been assumed up to now that Brexit Party would take the role and have the effect of being a spoiler alone. Maybe now it might be more than a mere spoiler. Half the Conservative voters of 2017 are saying that they will not vote Conservative next time. I have already blogged about how that could mean a loss of 100 or even 200 Commons seats for the Conservatives. Most ex-Con voters will vote Brexit Party.

It may well be that Brexit Party can do well enough to create its own bloc of seats. Maybe 50. Maybe even 100. Labour will also benefit from the Conservatives losing votes to both Brexit Party and the LibDems.

I cannot see the LibDems doing better than staying at about the same level that they are on now (12 MPs), but votes for them from former Conservative voters may easily let in either Labour or the Brexit Party, depending on the seat in question. Having said that, it is not impossible that a small number of LibDem candidates might slip past the Con, Lab and Brexit party candidates in closely-fought 3-way or 4-way splits.

So the Conservatives will be losing Remain votes to the LibDems, Leave votes to Brexit Party. It may be, also, that those floating voters whose priorities lie elsewhere than with the EU/Brexit situation will go with Labour.

The Conservatives may be left as a niche party for the wealthy, the smug affluent, the buy to let parasites, the Zionist Jews etc. In a sense that was always so, but other categories of voter made up the weight in elections.

The Conservative Party may be permanently reduced to a hard core of 25% of the electorate, and perhaps to an even lower level than that. The ethnic minorities (except the Jews) are estranged from the Conservatives and are fast-increasing in number. The “blacks and browns” etc vote Labour. Many of the English/British (i.e. white) middleaged and elderly are either disappearing by effluxion of time or are defecting to Brexit Party; only 16% of voters under 35 favour the Conservatives; only 4% of those under 25. Very many of the young or quite young vote Labour or Green.

The msm seems to be saying now that the most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as biggest party in the Commons. I tend to stick with my prediction of 2+ years standing, that Labour will be the biggest party, though without a majority, if an election really is called this year. There is an outside chance that Labour might get a majority, but if its remaining Northern English base continues to erode, a Commons majority is not going to happen.

Notes

https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-what-bruising-results-mean-for-labour-and-the-conservatives-11710446

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

Some tweets

In the clip immediately below (from Sky newspaper review), journalist Brendan O’Neill, with loudmouth “Fleet Street Fox” (Susie Boniface), addresses the Labour lack of success in the local elections:

In fact, there were no less than 39,000 spoiled papers in all! Many had “BREXIT”, “Brexit Party” or Swastikas drawn on them…

https://twitter.com/EddieDempsey/status/1124075048984350727

and here below we see Lisa Nandy MP trying to avoid mentioning that the Labour vote is now at least partly (in some areas, almost entirely) an ethnic non-white vote. Seems that the Conservatives of Smethwick, at the famous 1960s by-election, were right: “if you want a n****r for a neighbour, vote Labour”! Lisa Nandy is trying to say that “graduates” (meaning “the educated”?…hardy ha ha in the era of “everyone gets a First” degrees) prefer Labour. Everyone and his dog is now a nominal “graduate”, who has gone to “uni” and got a crap (in many cases) “degree” leading to (also in many cases) a low-wage job, thus (ditto) leading to socio-political dissatisfaction…

 

Afterthought

My main article, above, says nothing about Change UK, the new party for Remainers and pro-Zionists. The article does not cover Change UK because Change UK is doomed and (as I said in another blog post) all but pointless. It is running at about 4% in the opinion polls re the EU elections, but better (some polls even had it recently at 10%!) re. any general election.

Readers will recall that UKIP had support, at the 2015 General Election, of 12.6%, yet gained no MPs (except for the ex-Con MP, Carswell). UKIP’s support was evenly spread throughout England and Wales; it had no Schwerpunkt or concentration of support in a few constituencies (which is how the LibDems and Greens, both with lower levels of support nationally, score). It follows from that that Change UK, even with 10% of votes (5% is more likely) has no chance of getting anywhere in any general election in 2019.

The significant thing about Change UK is that it will pull even more votes from the Conservatives, already losing votes to Brexit Party and LibDems.

Update, 7 May 2019

In the past days, while “Change UK” has apparently already sunk without trace (and almost nothing is heard about it), Brexit Party is really developing into something. Today, it was announced that there will be EU elections in the UK on 23 May, only 16 days from today. Brexit Party looks odds-on to be largest UK party and perhaps to take most of the seats allocated to the UK.

and nearly 2,000 people (see link below) turning out for Farage and his Brexit Party in Peterborough, where a by-election will be held in early June.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/nigel-farage-brexit-rally-peterborough-16240485

Update, 11 May 2019

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed that if a Westminster general election were called, Labour would reap the largest share of the vote with 27%; the Brexit party would garner 20% ahead of the Conservatives on 19%. The Liberal Democrats would win 14%, followed by ChangeUK (7%) and the Greens (5%) with Ukip trailing on 2%.” [The Guardian]

Update, 18 May 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1128326/Brexit-news-Michael-Portillo-UK-EU-withdrawal-general-election-Brexit-Party-Theresa-May

The UK Local Elections Have Been Held: My View

Introduction

The 2019 local elections are at an end and the results collated and endlessly analyzed in the msm. I had predicted a seat loss for the Conservatives of well beyond 1,000 seats, somewhere between there and 1,500. In that, my prediction was correct. Where I went wrong was in thinking that Labour would do well.

What I got right was the disgust and despair voters generally now feel in respect of the Conservative Party. What I got wrong, mainly, was in assuming that voters in the North and Midlands would vote Labour to spite the Conservatives, even if only as a choice between evils and not much supporting Labour as such.

The facts

The system of voting for local councillors etc in the UK is as antiquated and convoluted as one might resignedly expect: not all councils are elected in the same year, and some councils only elect a third of their councillors in any one election. Absurd.

The actual result of the election nationwide, where 8,798 seats (between a third and a half of all the 20,712 local government seats in the UK) were being contested was:

  • Con 3,562 (loss of 1,334) seats;
  • Lab 2,023 (loss of 82) seats;
  • LibDems 1,350 (gain of 703) seats;
  • Others 1,310 (mostly Independents). The Greens did well and now have 265 councillors (a gain of 194). UKIP did badly, and now have only 31 councillors (a loss of 145).

Analysis

The two major System parties are now widely despised. More than that, the political/electoral system is now despised; people have little or no trust in it or in those who are making their living from it. Those facts are reflected not only in the votes cast, but in those not cast. Turnout varies depending on the type of body being elected, but seems overall to have been only about 30%, if that. In addition, unprecedentedly huge numbers of ballot papers were spoiled, some being endorsed with the words “Brexit” or “Brexit Party” or a drawn Swastika. Unsurprising, when one considers that, in many local council seats, there was no real choice.

In many areas of Southern England, the Conservatives were not opposed by even System party opponents from Labour or the LibDems. That explains the way in which disgusted voters voted for anyone not tainted by System connections: Independents (despite most being completely unknown to most of those who voted for them; complete wild cards); Residents’ Association candidates, Greens. How though to explain the relative success of the LibDems (a System party)? How to explain the collapse of UKIP (a non-System party)? In fact, there is no difficulty in understanding those apparent anomalies.

The LibDems were obviously voted for by voters who liked the LibDems’ focus on local affairs, those who are Remain supporters voting for the LibDems as an anti-Brexit protest vote, and by those former Conservative voters who wanted to punish the Conservatives generally, but who were unwilling to vote for Labour, Greens or for complete wild cards. For those people, I suspect mainly in the South of England, the LibDems were an acceptable compromise “dustbin” vote.

The Greens were probably mostly voted for as a pure protest vote, as well as an environmentally-oriented protest vote.

UKIP lost out badly and now, out of a possible nearly 21,000 councillors, has only 31. I think that one can see why that has happened. I have been tweeting/blogging for years that UKIP peaked in 2014. Since then, UKIP has been sliding. The good, but not good enough, 2015 General Election result led to a precipitous plunge in UKIP’s fortunes. Its new leader, Batten, has slowed the plunge, but not stopped it.

UKIP had insufficient troops and funds to fight these local elections hard. It did not contest the vast majority of seats anyway. Apart from that, it is clear that the connection with the “alt-Right” wastes of space (“Sargon of Akkad” Benjamin, “Prison Planet” Watson, “Count Dankula” Meechan) has damaged UKIP badly. Benjamin’s spat with ghastly “Labour” (Labour label) MP Jess Phillips was probably a huge turn-off for many voters. This is the end of the road for UKIP, even re. the EU elections (if any are held in the UK), because defections to Brexit Party have already left UKIP with only 3 MEPs, and BP is running at 30% or more in the opinion polls, while UKIP is now down to about 3%.

Conclusion

These were elections in which voters clutched at straws, weakly trying to damage the main parties of the System. In most seats, there was no non-System candidate standing. The aftermath has been that Con and Lab are now trying to cobble together a faked-up “deal” (“Brexit In Name Only”) so that both parties can avoid having to hold EU elections at all on the 23rd of this month..

We are coming to the end of even the pretence of representative democracy in the UK. Any means will soon be entirely justified in replacing the present corrupt, decadent and totally incompetent system with a better one. The present political system is just not working.

Notes

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-03/why-tories-and-labour-should-be-petrified-by-local-elections/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

http://www.heritageanddestiny.com/early-ukip-gains-as-voters-turn-against-main-parties/

Update and afterthoughts, 4 May 2019

There were almost no candidates ostensibly “nationalist”, still less social-national. A few did well where they stood, here and there. The standouts were Karen King and Julian Leppert, both of whom were For Britain Movement candidates..

Julian Leppert was elected for the “For Britain” party in Waltham Abbey, Paternoster ward, in Epping Forest, Essex. The one-time BNP councillor received 40.7% of the vote, 321 votes; the Con in second place got 227. Turnout was only 23%. About 808 votes were cast in toto.

Karen King, in Hartlepool, de Bruce ward, won with an even more striking 49.5% vote. “The turnout for the elections was 27.18% with 19,284 verified votes from an electorate of 70,943” [Northern Echo]. That of course relates to all Hartlepool and not simply the ward picked out, where Karen King/For Britain Movement got 694 votes, Labour 527, Con 180.

Hartlepool Borough Council councillors now consist of 13 Labour, 8 Independent Union, 5 Independent, 3 Conservatives, 1 UKIP, 1 Veterans’ and People’s Party, 1 For Britain Movement and 1 Socialist Labour Party. Such fragmentation is interesting. The old “three party” or “two party” System stitch-up is just not working any more.

Of course, readers of this blog will know that I have little time for “For Britain Movement”, and 2 councillors is a very small contingent out of the nearly 21,000 in the UK, but looking at those results in isolation, one can only congratulate the candidates.

I shall blog separately about the prospects for the main System parties.

Deadhead MPs, An Occasional Series: The Karl McCartney Story

This is the latest in my occasional series about those whom I consider to be “deadhead MPs”. The lucky politico this time is Karl McCartney, MP for Lincoln 2010-2017.

 

I would not usually bother with someone who is no longer an MP and who is very unlikely to be returned to the House of Commons. In McCartney’s case, I have decided to make an exception. The reason is because McCartney’s combination of brash overconfidence, unpleasantness, personal moneygrabbing and expenses blodging, lack of interest in the poorer part of society and unimpressive academic and work background is now, and has become, over the past decades, almost typical of MPs (and by no means only on the Conservative side of UK System-politics). That such people can become MPs is an indictment of the selection and election procedures in place in the UK.

Lincoln is considered to be an “ultra-marginal” and a “swing seat”. In 2010, McCartney and the Conservatives won with 37.5% of the votes cast, as against 35.2% for Labour and 20.2% for the LibDems (BNP 3%, UKIP 2.2%, English Democrats 1.3% and an Independent on 0.5%).

In 2015, McCartney was re-elected: Con 42.6%, Lab 39.6%, UKIP 12.2%, LibDem 4.3%, TUSC 0.7%, Lincolnshire Independent 0.6%. The key points were the collapse of the LibDem vote by 16 points, the non-appearance of the BNP and English Democrats, and the rise of UKIP —by 10 points, though that was modest bearing in mind that the BNP and EDs did not stand. Both Con and Lab increased their percentages.

In 2017, the result was Lab 47.9%, Con 44.7%, UKIP 2.6%, LibDem 2.6%, Green 1.2%, and two Independents (0.6%, 0.3%). A pattern seen in many constituencies: UKIP slumping back to a 2010 or pre-2010 level and the LibDems failing to recover from the 2015 debacle and indeed slipping further. While the Con vote percentage did slightly increase –2 points– in 2017, Lab did far better–8 points higher. That despite the UKIP slump, despite McCartney favouring Leave/Brexit, despite the appearance of a Green candidate likely to impact the Labour vote. It is hard to escape the view that the Con loss was the result of popular judgment on McCartney himself.

McCartney was exposed from 2010-2017, in various ways, as unsuitable.

A lecturer at the University of Lincoln blamed McCartney’s laziness and complacency for the loss (see Notes, below) and was too polite to mention McCartney’s alleged porn-trawling (though that was, admittedly, in 2014), his employment of his wife at £50,000 a year via Parliamentary expenses, or his expenses generally.

On 28 February 2013 McCartney apologised to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) for the content of notes he had sent to staff. The notes were described by IPSA Chief Executive, Andrew McDonald as ‘abusive’, ‘offensive’ and ‘condescending’. McCartney’s apology stated, “I apologise unreservedly to IPSA for my comments” [Wikipedia]. and

“The following month he claimed that IPSA’s incompetence had forced MPs from all parties to borrow money and that he had had to ask his parents for financial assistance.[30] McCartney also said that he had been told by a “senior IPSA official” that the organisation intended to “damage MPs as much as possible,” a claim that IPSA said was “wild ..simply untrue.” [Wikipedia].

An idea of McCartney’s character can also be gained from the Twitter exchange printed in a local newspaper: https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/lincoln-news/bitter-row-breaks-out-twitter-1447360

The readers’ comments section under that newspaper report was harsh:

Poor old Karl. He really needs to wipe away those tears and get on with his life. He is an arrogant, rude and bitter loser. And they are his good points. Lincoln and the Conservatives are better off without him. Ignore him Karen.”

and

Happiest day last year was when he walked away in a huff and refused to speak to anyone or congratulate at the election result which pretty much summed everything up.”

As to what McCartney is doing now, I think that the answer may be “very little”. I notice that, as I write this piece, around 1800 hrs, he has already tweeted or retweeted 29 times today, so far. His website seems to say that he will be the Conservative candidate at the next general election. It is hard to know why. One can only speculate as to why the local Conservatives have chosen him. He was a lay magistrate at one time; he is a Freeman of the City of London (see Notes, below), having “worked with”, his website claims, more than one Lord Mayor in the late 1990s. Freemason? I do not know.

McCartney obviously did pretty well financially in his 7 years as MP: salary of (then) about £70,000 pa, and wife’s salary (paid out of his expenses claimed) £50,000 pa; also possible other (outside) sources of income (I do not know about this). His overall expenses alone over his time as MP totalled well over a million pounds. He does not appear to have a job at present (there is nothing mentioned on his website); perhaps his wife has found another job, now that her well-paid work as her husband’s assistant has gone.

Readers of The Lincolnite (online newspaper) were as harsh as those commenting on Lincoln Live (above):

“A totally useless MP, more concerned about himself and his expenses than he ever was about Lincoln – amazed that they’ve reselected this waste of space.

John Bercow (Speaker, House of Commons) summed him up nicely with this in a parliamentary debate when McCartney let himself (and us) down yet again:

“Mr McCartney, calm yourself. Be quiet, young man. We do not need to hear from you. You add nothing and you subtract from the proceedings.”

Then there were the abusive notes (for which he had to apologise) he sent to the parliamentary expenses staff when they queried his expenses.”

and
Unvelievable! [sic] A sure fire way for the Conservatives to lose votes.”
and
 
It’s not what you know but who you know ,Roll your trouser leg up, funny handshake and fancy apron crowd.”

What are McCartney’s chances of getting back as Lincoln’s MP? Very slight. I have blogged elsewhere about the impact of Brexit Party (and slightly revived UKIP) on the Conservative vote, assuming that Brexit Party contests a general election. That alone would sink the Conservatives in an ultra-marginal such as Lincoln.

Another point is that present Labour MP, Karen Lee, who worked in shops for years before spending 14 years as an NHS nurse, still puts in some shifts at a local hospital, donating her NHS earnings to charity! What a contrast to greedy, moneygrasping and “entitled” McCartney! His work in the City of London in the 1990s was obviously so unimportant that even his own website says almost nothing about it (neither does he seem to have done much outside Con politics in the decade up to his election in 2010).

In addition to all that, Karen Lee is local in origin, whereas McCartney was born in Birkenhead, “Murkyside” (Merseyside), and was educated there and in Wales.

Well, there you are. My latest “deadhead MP”, who is hoping to resume his place at the trough soon. Over to you, voters of Lincoln…

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_McCartney

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Lee_(politician)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-30230261

https://labourlist.org/2014/11/tory-mp-favourites-graphic-porn-tweet/

https://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/11/karl-mccartney-mp-and-twitter-porn/

https://www.anorak.co.uk/352433/money/karl-mccartney-shocked-that-politicians-can-be-treated-like-any-poor-sod-waiting-for-benefits.html

https://www.karlmccartney.co.uk/

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/former-lincoln-mp-karl-mccartney-111161

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/lincoln-news/bitter-row-breaks-out-twitter-1447360

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24790/karl_mccartney/lincoln/votes

https://adrippingtap.wordpress.com/tag/karl-mccartney-mp/

https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2019/03/lincoln-conservatives-re-select-karl-mccartney-for-mp-candidate/

https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/03/mccartney-selected-as-the-candidate-for-lincoln-his-former-constituency.html

Note re. “Freeman of the City of London”:

In England, the most established borough freedom is that conferred by the Freedom of the City of London, first recorded in 1237. This is closely tied to the role and status of the livery companies. From 1835, the freedom “without the intervention of a Livery Company” has been bestowed by a general resolution of Common Council, by “redemption” (purchase), at one time for an onerous sum. Now the Freedom can be obtained by servitude, by patrimony, by nomination, or by presentation via a Livery Company. Freedom through nomination by two sponsors is available for a fee (known as a “fine”) of £100, but is free to those on the electoral roll of the City.” [Wikipedia]

Update, 1 May 2019

I am writing this update just after 1400 hrs. McCartney took to Twitter today at about 0600 and, by my reckoning, has, in the intervening 8 hours, tweeted or retweeted at least 52 times (I think that I have left out a few retweets). Quite a few of his tweets and retweets seem to be about “anti-Semitism” in the Labour Party. McCartney must have been part of the “Friends of Israel” crowd (like 80% of “Conservative” MPs). He obviously wants to remain (((onside))). I have no idea whether Lincoln’s deadhead former MP actually has a job at present. I doubt it. He seems an extremely unpleasant person either way.

Update, 18 July 2019

In the article above, written for The Lincolnite (local online newspaper), McCartney again obsesses about “anti-Semitism” in the Labour Party, saying that Labour peers have raised the issue again. Well, about 50 or 60 have, out of 179…

I wonder whether the voters of Lincoln share McCartney’s obsession with speaking out in favour of the Jewish lobby? I doubt it! As for the rest of his article, the Lincolnite needs a sub-editor to correct spelling errors (“buses” is right, “busses” is not) and grammar.

Some of the few readers’ comments on the above article have been unkind:

FAT303

Why are you giving this failed Tory a voice he spent 1000s on a letter folder, and employed his wife as an assistant on 45k a year. He doesnt give a toss about us he just wants his expenses back…
 
and
 

“Graham R Peck

I am assuming the Lincolnite has decided to join his very early election campaign hence the article. I assume we will get more of the same until a General Election. As it stands he is a nobody and yet has got 3 times more space than the sitting MP who represents which Party? Well blow me
 
Seems that McCartney and his wife, a local councillor, are living rather well off the hump, despite having had their joint income reduced since his 2017 election failure:
 
 
 
Update, 3 November 2019
 
Well, it seems that McCartney’s leech-like tenaciousness in Lincoln might (against the odds and all reason) pay off. Corbyn-Labour is suffering a crisis of public confidence, while (by reason of that) Boris-Idiot and the misnamed “Conservatives” are riding high in the opinion polls.
 
People vote (mainly) according to party label and national trend rather than for or against the individual candidate. That plays to McCartney’s advantage here, however unfair that may be. At present, the Conservatives are favourites in the betting to retake Lincoln (1/2) whereas Labour is on 11/8:
 
He remains not universally popular in Lincoln, though:
 
 
Update, 24 November 2019
 
Update, 26 November 2019
If I myself say so, it was rather prescient of me to have included Karl McCartney in my Deadhead MPs series, inasmuch as the tides have turned, at least temporarily, in his favour, which means that he may well be back as MP for Lincoln (well, MP for His Own Benefit, His Wife’s Benefit, and, maybe, Lincoln) by 12 December.
The betting odds have McCartney favourite to retake the seat on Polling Day. That must reflect the general/national public sentiment against Labour, mainly, as well as McCartney’s pro-Brexit stance in a Leave constituency.
Brexit Party is standing, but is probably of no great significance now, Farage having shot his own party in the head (now at 3% or so in the opinion polls). UKIP stood at Lincoln in 2017, but only received 2.6% of the total vote.
Update, 13 December 2019
Well, the voters of Lincoln have evidently eaten too many potatoes. McCartney has been elected again as MP. He must be celebrating his return to paid “work”, generous (whatever he says) expenses, and perhaps to getting his wife back on the gravy-train (£50,000 pa as “assistant” or whatever, yet again via expenses), though the rules were changed for MPs elected in or after 2017, so it may be that he at least will be prevented from blodging in that way.
McCartney was elected this time because the Brexit Party candidate withdrew on his own initiative. What an idiot…his (guessing) several thousand intended votes probably did it for McCartney, who beat the far better Labour candidate, Karen Lee, by about three and a half thousand votes.
Update, 5 July 2024
The people of Lincoln have finally removed McCartney, who came a very poor second in the 2024 General Election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s

He will have to find another job, if he can.

Update, 29 January 2026

After McCartney lost his seat again in 2024 (he scored 23% as against the Labour candidate’s 43.8%; Reform scored 18%, so even had Reform not stood, McCartney would still have lost), he tried to be selected as Conservative Party candidate for the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral contest, but did not make it onto the shortlist; in any event, the ex-Con Party ex-MP, Andrea Jenkyns, standing for Reform, soundly beat the Con Party candidate, by 42% to 26.1%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Greater_Lincolnshire_mayoral_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_McCartney#Post_Parliament

McCartney is now 57. His loyalty to the Jewish lobby and the Israeli cause may have helped him stay as MP for a total of 12 years, but his political career, such as it was, is now at an end.

Some More Thoughts About the Next General Election in the UK

A 2019 General Election?

A recent ComRes poll indicated that only about half of those who voted Conservative in the General Election of 2017 are intending to vote that way in the next general election, which might come any time between Summer 2019 and early June 2022. I have been thinking and blogging etc for a year or so that 2019 might be the year. Mainstream commentators have recently been gravitating to the same view.

The Brexit chaos has highlighted the incompetence of the Theresa May and other Conservative Party governments stretching back to 2010: roads, rail, social security/”welfare”, the migration-invasion (mass immigration), crime etc.

As I have more than once blogged and (before I was banned in our “free” country, tweeted), the choice for many may be between a Labour Party government which may well prove to be incompetent, and a Conservative Party government which has already, time and again, proven its incompetence.

Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Brexit Party

Labour is now slightly ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls, probably because

  • UKIP, though effectively washed-up as an electoral force, has managed, under its latest leader, Batten, to halt its downward slide;
  • Brexit Party now exists and is taking votes mainly from the Conservatives;
  • also, Theresa May is now finally seen almost universally as the disaster she is.

No-one expects UKIP to win seats in any general election this year; after all, 1 in 8 voters voted UKIP in 2015, but the rigged/unfair UK electoral system deprived it of its merited success. On strict PR voting, UKIP’s 12.6% popular vote would have given UKIP about 80 MPs. Indeed, had many not seen a vote for UKIP as a wasted vote, that number could have been doubled or even trebled. In Mrs. May’s now-famous screech, “nothing has changed!” as far as that is concerned.

UKIP will probably get a few percentage points of the vote in English and Welsh constituencies, maybe even 5%, but that will not win any seats. What it will do, though, is deprive the Conservatives (mainly) of those votes (nearly 600,000 in 2017). Many constituency seats are won and lost by less than a thousand votes.

Now we have Brexit Party, which I had thought would fight only the EU elections, but which, it seems (see Nigel Farage’s comments in Notes, below), now intends to fight the next UK general election.

My initial skepticism about Brexit Party has been proven wrong, at least in the opinion polls. Brexit Party is now running at anything up to 30% re. the EU elections, and, in initial polling, 14% in respect of Westminster elections. That latter polling may already have been superseded by events, but even 14%, at a general election, is huge, inasmuch as it means that Brexit Party and UKIP in aggregate may take away from (mainly) the Conservatives as much as 20% of the votes in any given English or Welsh constituency. In an average constituency with average GE turnout that works out at about 8,000 votes!

As usual, most of the Twitterati get it wrong. Look at the tweets below by one Tom Clarke, who seems to be a fairly typical Remain and anti-nationalist tweeter. He says, probably correctly, that 27% is not enough to “take power” but fails to see the side-effects in terms of depriving others of power…He also bleats about “mandate”. What about the 52% who voted Leave in 2016?

In fact, Twitter is a poor guide to elections and popular votes. The twitterati voted Remain in 2016 (losing side), thought that Trump had no chance of becoming US President (wrong again), and are (or often seem to be) almost all pro-immigration, virtue-signalling idiots etc…

Core votes

The Labour core vote, though no more than 25% of eligible voters, is solid because it is composed of those unlikely to be enticed by other parties presently around, and particularly by the Conservative Party: almost all “blacks and browns” (and other ethnic minorities, except for Jews); almost all of the poorly-paid, unemployed, and disabled. Others, while not “core vote”, add up to possibly another 10% of the eligible electorate: those 18-24 (only 4% favour Conservative), voters under 35 (only 16% favour Conservative). Increasing numbers of persons in their 30s, 40s and older are victims of buy-to-let parasites and bully landlords, or are not getting much personal or social benefit from their work. Labour’s policies speak to them. The Conservatives have nothing to say to such people except “pay up or get out! And don’t complain about repairs!” and “poor pay? Get a different job!”

When one thinks “who today would vote Conservative?” the answer, in broad brush terms must be

  • the wealthy
  • the affluent
  • buy to let parasites
  • those who own their homes outright and are financially stable
  • those elderly who are stick-in-the-mud creatures of frozen voting habits

That is the 25% or so core vote, to which must be added

  • those who hate Labour or Corbyn enough to vote Conservative simply in order to keep Labour and/or a Labour candidate out.

Here is an important point: the Labour core vote may be and probably is growing; the Conservative core vote is shrinking.

The Brexit Party and UKIP strike both at the Conservative core vote and the potentially-Conservative non-core vote.

Would Boris Johnson make a difference?

Doubtful. I concede that I am as anti-Boris as almost anyone could be, but my antipathy is matched by many voters: Boris is apparently the choice for Con leader (and so, unless there is a general election, Prime Minister by default) of about 70% of Conservative Party members (if one can believe sources such as the Daily Express), but even if correct, that is 70% of (at most) 120,000 Con Party members, i.e. 84,000 voters out of at least 40 million (in 2017, about 32 million voted).

In polls of the wider public, Boris Johnson is only a few percentage points ahead of other possible Con leaders.

Conclusion

Since 2017, I have thought that the most likely result of the next UK general election is Labour to win most seats, but not enough to have an overall majority. Now, for the first time, I am questioning that and wondering whether a strong general election campaign by both Brexit Party and UKIP might weaken the Conservative vote to the point where, nationally, the Conservatives might get as little as 30% (could it drop even to 25%?) as compared to 42.4% in 2017 and 36.9% in 2015.

I am of course no psephologist, but using online tools etc, it seems not unlikely that, if the Conservative vote falls to 30% and Labour is five points ahead, Labour might end up with about 300 seats and the Conservatives about 250. Others, about 100. No overall majority.

If, though, the Con vote were 25% and the Lab vote five points ahead, the Conservatives would end up with perhaps 225 or fewer seats, while Labour might get about 320. Yet again no overall majority for Corbyn, but closer.

However, we are uncharted territory, and in the “glorious uncertainly” of the British electoral system, it is not impossible that, in dozens and perhaps hundreds of constituencies, the Conservatives might come in second rather than first, their vote sapped by voters voting for UKIP, Brexit Party and others.

The ComRes poll cited at the start of this article said that only just over half of 2017 Con voters were planning to vote Con next time. In 2017, about 13,600,000 or so voted Con. If that is reduced to about 7 million, then the Conservative Party is toast.

In that event, the parliamentary Conservative Party would be reduced to a half, even a quarter of its present strength, and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn might actually be elected with a considerable majority. After that, anything might happen.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party#House_of_Commons_2

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-thinks-his-brexit-party-can-win-general-election-1-5998829

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/24/nigel-farage-brexit-party-use-eu-elections-oust-remain-parliament

Afterthoughts, 25 April 2019

In my concluding sentences, above, I explored what might happen if Brexit Party (and/or UKIP, but Brexit Party is plainly taking off in a way that UKIP now is not) were to take away a large number of votes from the Conservatives. I examined what would happen if, nationally, the Conservatives went from 35%-45% down to 30% or 25% (or even lower).

Nigel Farage has made comments indicating that Brexit Party might make inroads into the Labour vote too, especially in the North where Labour was once monolithic in its supremacy in most constituencies.

The polling percentages and national vote percentages can only take you so far. In 2017, Theresa May led the Conservatives to inconclusive victory-defeat and 317 MPs, despite getting 42.4% of the national vote, a level not achieved by any political leader since Mrs Thatcher in 1983. In 2015, David Cameron-Levita’s Conservatives only got 36.9% of the national vote, yet 330 MPs. Only in an electoral system as Alice in Wonderland as that of the UK could that make any sense.

In other words, predictions are tricky when it comes to exact or even inexact numbers.

However, in my view, Brexit Party (and what is left of UKIP support) will hit the Conservatives harder than Labour. Indeed, some voters in seats where Labour never wins may vote tactically to unseat Conservatives, even if the result is that a LibDem or other may get in as a result. One can easily imagine seats fought until now as effectively a two-way split which may now be fought as a three-way or even four-way split.

If Brexit Party can go up from its 14% polling (Westminster voting intention; in EU elections the figure may be as high as 30%) to 25%+, that raises the serious possibility of Brexit Party MPs being elected. If about half the 2017 Conservative voters are not going to vote Conservative (as ComRes reports), are they going to abstain or vote elsewhere? The fact that they bothered to vote before seems to suggest that they will vote again. That means that even in the handful of seats where the Conservatives won in 2017 with over 60% of the vote, the Conservative share of the vote might go from 60% or so to 40%. (the safest Conservative seat is North East Hampshire: 65.5% in 2017).

In the circumstances above, defending a 60% vote share and ending up with perhaps 40%, the Conservatives would still win in most cases, but that would not be the case in more typical constituencies, where the Conservative MP won in 2017 with 50%, 40% or an even lower percentage of the votes cast. A Con MP who got 40% in 2017 might end up getting 30% or even 20% next time.

If Brexit Party can maintain momentum, it (with UKIP’s effect added) will cripple the Conservatives, who will lose swathes of seats. For example, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson received about 50% of the vote in 2017. Most of the rest (40%) went to Labour. Were half or even a quarter of the Conservative votes to be cast elsewhere, Labour would win (even if the votes “cast elsewhere” were not cast for Labour). In that example, Boris would end up with less than 40% and (if Labour’s 2017 40% vote were to hold up), the Labour candidate would win. That could be replicated in hundreds of seats, in theory. Most would fall to Labour, a few might go to or revert to LibDem, but it is also possible that some would fall to the Brexit Party. At present, unreal though it feels, it is not totally impossible to foresee Nigel Farage’s Frankenstein coming to life (energized by the Brexit hullabaloo itself) and actually ending up as a bloc of anywhere between a few MPs and as many as 50.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/insights/ge2017-marginal-seats-and-turnout/

https://fullfact.org/news/how-many-seats-are-safe-and-how-many-votes-count-under-first-past-post/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIkaOb1Ivr4QIVDFXTCh3Ing2pEAAYASAAEgK6fvD_BwE

and Farage has now confirmed that Brexit Party will fight the next general election. The Conservatives are toast.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8938714/nigel-farage-brexit-party-general-election/

Update, 27 April 2019

Times columnist Iain Martin tweeted on 27 April 2019 that “Disintegrating Tories need a leader who can get the Brexit Party to shut up shop.” It is clear to him, quite evidently, that Brexit Party, even if only as a “super-protest”, has the ability to smash the Conservative Party forever by reducing a typical Conservative vote in a marginal or even hitherto “safe” constituency by anything up to 8,000 votes…

The corollary is —almost— equally true: if Brexit Party (and UKIP) either did not exist or were not popular, the Conservatives would be well ahead of Labour for the next general election.

27 April 2019

Interesting analysis from 2017: had Labour won 7 more seats (requiring only 2,227 votes!), Corbyn might now be Prime Minister!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-election-results-votes-away-prime-minister-theresa-may-hung-parliament-a7782581.html

and here is John Rentoul, writing in The Independent, saying outright part of what I have been saying (I think that he is the first msm commentator of importance to have done so), that is that the Conservative Party is a dead duck (he says “smoking ruin”!) and likely to run only third after Labour and Brexit Party at the next UK general election:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-betrayal-corbyn-pm-farage-european-elections-a8888991.html

Not sure that Rentoul is right about Labour manifesto policy though: Corbyn might just continue to sit on the fence. It is working for him so far…

Meanwhile, Britain Elects tweets thus:

If that polling is right, the combined Brexit Party and UKIP vote at the possible/probable 2019 General Election is now running above 20%. Today 21%, tomorrow 25%, even 30%? Anything above 10% (as in 2015—UKIP got over 12% that year) is pretty bad for the Conservatives; anything above 20% will kill them stone dead. They would lose not even 100, but 200 MPs.

Update, 1 May 2019

With only 1 day to go before the UK local elections, I saw this tweet:

Meanwhile…

This is incredible! I am not a “supporter” of Farage or “Brexit Party”, but this is the sort of reception that few get! Reminiscent of the Fuhrer (though without the depth or substance, of course). Brexit Party is on a roll! Only three weeks to go before the moment of truth (EU elections).

The Political Mood is Changing

There has been a see-sawing between the two main System parties for several years. At first, say in 2014-2015, it looked as though Labour was about to go into possibly terminal decline. I have no doubt that, had any of the pro-Israel, pro-EU candidates in the first post-GE 2015 Labour leadership contest (Liz Kendall, Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper) won, that would have come to pass. As we know, Corbyn won that contest, and Labour, though it came in second at the 2017 General Election, reduced the Conservative government to minority status. Since then the parties have generally been close together in the opinion polls, with the Conservatives usually slightly higher.

Since the 2017 election, the only difference between the two is that Corbyn has been favoured by fewer as a potential prime minister. Theresa May had the edge but no ringing endorsement (a typical result was Corbyn 25%, Theresa May 35%, Don’t Know 40%). I have not seen a recent poll about the System party leaders, but there have been recent polls vis a vis the upcoming EU election and re. Westminster voting intentions (the next general election might in theory only be in 2022, but there seems to be an acceptance that it might in fact be this year, as I predicted was not unlikely).

Here are recent poll results (questions asked about 3-8 days ago), collated by Britain Elects. The position of Nigel Farage’s pop-up Brexit Party is volatile, but it is plainly one of the two most favoured; UKIP is evidently some way behind all of Brexit Party, Labour and Conservative Party, but the important point is that both Brexit Party and UKIP will take votes mainly from the Conservatives in the EU elections (always assuming that the UK participates) and (if Brexit Party and UKIP put up candidates) in the general election of 2019 (if it happens). There are also local elections coming (2 May 2019) but the beneficiary there will be Labour, UKIP not being able to fight most seats and Brexit Party not standing at all.

It can be seen that YouGov is more bullish on Brexit Party’s chances than is ComRes, and that BP’s ratings vary daily or so even from a single pollster. However, there is some reason to believe that Farage’s new vehicle is riding even higher now (some estimates put its reach at over 30%).

An amateur or perhaps semi-professional psephologist has come up with this seat prediction for the EU election in the UK (based on a YouGov opinion poll):

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1118497987045613568

Well, that’s for the EU Parliament. What about Westminster? The msm consensus now is what I have been predicting for a couple of years, Labour probably the largest party, but without overall majority. Where does that leave the Conservative Party? Quite possibly up a certain well-known creek without a paddle.

As I said here above, only a few years ago Labour looked like collapsing into becoming a niche party with maybe a 25% popular vote. Now things look very different: Corbyn has bent like the bamboo before the wind as the Jews (and the heavily Jew-influenced msm) have accused him of “anti-Semitism” (the Circuit judge in the Alison Chabloz appeal hearing recently confirmed that “anti-Semitism” is not a crime in England anyway…pass it on…).

The Zionist storm has been ferocious around Corbyn since 2015, but he simply sways with the wind. If I had not read that Corbyn scarcely reads books (one of his ex-wives said that he read not one book during their 4 years together!), I would take Corbyn for an acolyte of Sun-Tzu.

Well, much has happened since Corbyn took over. A membership/support base of about 200,000 has become one of 500,000+, Labour no longer has financial problems, its members and supporters are often young, and its poll ratings are finally improving.

Now it is the Conservative Party that may be facing an existential crisis. We read that only about 5% of Conservative rank and file members want Theresa May to stay as Leader, that donations have completely dried up, that the median age of Conservative Party members is 51 (with many over 80 or even 90), and that the supposed 120,000+ membership number is either only a paper figure or shows huge numbers of completely inactive members who take no part in the party even locally or socially, but are signed up to bank direct debits.

Only 16% of voters under 35 intend to vote Conservative, while the figure for under-25-years is a mere 4%. True, Conservative voters have always been mainly middle-aged and elderly, but not to this extent.

The Conservatives have usually trumped Labour on competence (in public perception, but God knows why…), but that is now faltering. The Conservatives can say that a Corbyn government would be incompetent, but the voters have seen that (as with David Cameron-Levita) the Theresa May Conservative government has been proven so: the NHS deteriorating, the police incapable of stopping the rise in violent crime, the increase in Internet snooping and monitoring of ordinary white British citizens by police, MI5 etc, the numbers being made homeless or literally starved to death thanks to the incompetent “welfare” “reforms” of Iain Dunce Duncan Smith and the jew “lord” Freud etc; then there are the potholed roads, the bursting and inefficient railways, not to mention the millions of unwanted immigrants, often from backward, violent and useless ethnic groups, flooding in almost without restraint. Police stations have been closed and sold, prisons are in a appalling state, people are imprisoned for saying anything against the Jews, but given small fines for bad crimes of violence. Then there are the squeezes, over a decade, on incomes.

The appalling muddle over Brexit has crystallized such feelings about this government’s sheer incompetence.

About half the chairmen of local Conservative parties have said that they will be voting Brexit Party in the EU elections. The Conservative Party is a party which is folding. The leader has no credibility, Cabinet members have neither loyalty nor discipline, its MPs are also without discipline, and it seems that donations have dried up.

A damning Survation poll of 781 Tory councillors today found 76% want the Prime Minister to resign – with 43% saying she must go immediately” and “One councillor questioned in the study said: “The Conservative Party is dead. It will take a strong leader to dredge it out of the mud.””

[Daily Mirror]

The Daily Mail has a similar story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943297/Devastating-poll-shows-40-Tory-councillors-Nigel-Farages-new-party.html

I am embarrassed to be a member at the moment. This will be a case study of (predictable) incompetence which has made our country and party a laughing stock around the world.” and “I will not vote Conservative nationally again. I have been a lifetime supporter and a Conservative councillor for 33 years.

[Daily Mail]

It was the early symptom of the membership demographic problem (aka “an ancient membership…”), from 2010, that led to the Conservative Party trying to plug the door-knocking gap by bussing in hordes of young Con activists and/or employees via the disastrous Mark Clarke tour, because many constituency associations had almost literally no-one willing to canvass voters, mostly because, while some constituency associations had 200 or even 300 members, all of them were either infirm or far beyond retirement age.

More generally, it can be seen that there is a move to radical and even revolutionary politics. MSM scribblers are starting to take notice:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943195/The-political-centre-disappearing-grave-danger-lies-ahead-says-JOHN-GRAY.html

To listen to strong “Brexiteers”, one would imagine that Brexit is the only issue. Poorly-educated and perhaps not very intelligent msm scribblers, such as Susie Boniface, the so-called “Fleet Street Fox” (a Remain partisan), make the same mistake in reverse. Susie Boniface writes that the voters of Newport West, in the recent by-election, voted for a Remain-supporting (Labour) MP despite the fact that the area (not the exact area) voted Leave in 2016. She infers from that that voters have changed their mind on EU membership. No, they simply wanted a MP who (supposedly) believes in public services, decent pay and fair benefits for those that need them. Is it so hard to understand such things? Maybe if you are a London-based scribbler making a few hundred thousand a year and writing to an agenda…

We can see, looking ahead, that people are turning away from the System parties because the needs of the British people are simply not being met on any of the issues raised above. For the moment, those for whom Brexit is all-important have the safety-valves of UKIP and Brexit Party; on other issues, for many, Corbyn-Labour will fill the gap, for a while. In the end, though, only real social nationalism can offer a future for the real British people. 2022 may be the decisive year.

Note on Voting Percentages

The “glorious uncertainty” of British politics (oddly-drawn constituencies, FPTP voting etc) makes popular vote percentages of less importance than would be the case in a system of even passing fairness.

As can be seen from the linked charts, below, the Conservatives under Theresa May got a higher popular vote percentage (42.3%) in 2017 than the party had managed since Margaret Thatcher in 1983 (42,4%), yet only 317 MPs (currently 312) as against Mrs. Thatcher’s 376! In 2015, under David Cameron-Levita, the Conservatives got a popular vote of 36.9%, yet ended with 330 MPs!  That’s the British system of voting— ridiculous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#UK_general_elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

General Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susie_Boniface#Personal_life

Update, 22 April 2019

recent msm comment:

Note that the percentages shown below relate to the views of Conservative councillors, and not those of rank and file members (or ordinary voters):

Labour has problems as well…; but it is a measure of how angry and frustrated voters are that not even the prospect of Diane Abbott (here seen drinking a canned alcoholic mojito on the Underground/Overground) as Home Secretary is (much) denting Labour’s poll rating now!

Meanwhile…

https://twitter.com/GID_England/status/1115664510306672641

 

https://twitter.com/GID_England/status/1117507705810321408

https://twitter.com/GID_England/status/1118575863073837062

The racially and culturally inferior are allowed to flood into the UK and the rest of Europe, and in the UK are tolerated, given housing, given food money and more if they start breeding. Meanwhile, for the British, life becomes harsher daily:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/21/stephen-smith-liverpool-seriously-ill-emaciated-man-denied-benefits-dwp-dies

A Few Thoughts About the EU and Local Elections To Be Held in May 2019

The Brexit mess, so spectacularly mishandled by Theresa May and the idiotic careerists around her, may save UKIP from immediate collapse as a party, inasmuch as many British voters will want to punish the Conservative Party one way or the other. There may be in general a “perfect storm” for the Conservative Party, pressured on two fronts by both the Leave and Remain sides.

There will soon be elections for the European Parliament, on 23 May 2019. Recent opinion polling seems to be saying that Labour will have a landslide: initial voting intentions show Labour on 37.8% (up from 24.4% in 2016); Conservatives at 23.1% (unchanged), Brexit Party (Nigel Farage’s new party) 10%, LibDem 8%, UKIP 7.5%, Change UK (the recent Lab/Con defector MPs’ vehicle) around 4%, among others.

One has to be cautious in assuming that the above opinion poll reflects the likely outcome. The same poll seems to indicate that, after discussion, many pro-EU voters prefer Change UK (which would hit Labour and LibDem levels), while anti-EU voters may prefer either UKIP or Brexit Party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1112942/european-elections-voting-intentions-uk-conservative-labour-brexit-party

Before the EU elections (in which the UK may not participate at all if the UK leaves the UK before 23 May), there will be local elections, on 2 May 2019. The indications are that, in those elections, Labour may also sweep the poll, with Labour benefiting not only from the “pendulum” or “see-saw” effect of elections in a system using FPTP voting, but also from abstentions by usual Con voters (or by their voting for Brexit Party or UKIP).

As far as the local elections are concerned, Labour starts the campaign with several advantages. The decade of spending cuts has finally impacted even the most true-blue Conservative areas. Labour has a army of local activists, thanks to its membership surge under Corbyn. It also has funds from the same source.

The Conservatives have few local activists now and most are beyond retirement age. The party looks tired. The Brexit mess can only be laid at the door of Theresa May and her Cabinet. The Cons will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in the areas voting for local councillors on 2 May.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/11/conservative-mps-may-boycott-european-election-campaign

There are also strategic factors. The Conservative Party claims 124,000 members, which seems high (average 200 members per constituency). Most are elderly. Few are active. The median age for Conservative voters has also risen, to 52. Recent polling has shown that only 16% of voters under 35 support the Cons, and only 4% of those under 25 do so.

In respect of the local elections, I see them as a straight fight between Labour and Conservative, overall. Labour is obviously in a good position in every respect.

In respect of the EU elections (in England and Wales), Labour may start in pole position, but there is a long way to go. Pro-EU voters may vote Labour, LibDem, Change UK or even Conservative. Anti-EU voters may vote Brexit Party, UKIP, or possibly either Lab or Con. Hard to say. Many voters may just try to hit out at the Conservatives any way they can. The obvious way to hit at the Conservative Party government is to vote Labour, assuming that hitting out trumps Brexit issues.

I can see that, while the Jewish/Zionist attack on Corbyn-Labour has made a dent in Lab’s popularity over 3-4 years, the voters are now tired of the whole Labour “anti-Semitism” whining, not least because Labour is now suspending members who speak out against the Zionist prominence in the UK. People have real issues with which to contend. It is a mistake to think that Twitter is the same as the UK public, especially now that Twitter has purged so many dissident voices (including mine). Jews and their “useful idiots” have colonized Twitter, to an extent.

The Leave/Brexit vote will be split between UKIP and Brexit Party, weakening both. All the same, these EU elections are all about (in the UK) protest voting.

Whichever way one looks at it, Labour looks like doing very well at the local elections and fairly well at the EU elections.

Update, 14 April 2019

Some msm outlets are now predicting a solid Labour win in the expected General Election too

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6919951/Jeremy-Corbyn-win-general-election-Conservatives-face-losing-60-seats-Brexit.html

Update, April 15 2019

Despite having no policies beyond the UK leaving (really leaving) the EU, Brexit Party is already running at anywhere up to 15% in opinion polling for the EU elections of 23 May 2019.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6921149/Nigel-Farages-Brexit-Party-set-drain-Tory-candidates-EU-elections-month.html

It is reported that up to 56% of those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum will vote either Brexit Party or UKIP in any General Election held this year. It is unclear whether Brexit Party would contest a general election, but if not, its votes would presumably go to UKIP. So about 50% of about 52% = about 26% of votes. That might not be enough to win any seats (certainly not, if split two ways), but it would cripple the Conservatives.

Update, 17 April 2019

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-theresa-may-european-parliament-elections-a8873056.html

Update, 18 April 2019

Update, 18 April 2019

Brexit Party, thanks to star turn Farage, is now at almost 30% in polling re. the EU elections. UKIP cannot seem to get much beyond 8%-9%. Still, that does mean that the Cons, in particular, will crash. They are polling now below 15% re. EU elections.

As far as the UK local elections are concerned, Brexit Party is taken out of the equation (contesting no seats) and UKIP is not contesting very many seats. That must favour Labour.

Update 21 April 2019

From the Daily Mail:

“If there is any overall winner from the meltdown in British politics, it will be Jeremy Corbyn – leader of what has become by any normal standards an extremist party.

As a historian of political ideas and movements, I have studied the rise and fall of parties and ideologies in Britain and Europe. 

Today we are witnessing a meltdown in British politics with no historical precedent. Both main parties are shedding their traditional supporters at an astonishing rate.

According to a ComRes poll published last week, not much more than half (53 per cent) of 2017 Conservative voters intend to vote Conservative at the next General Election.”

[John Gray, Daily Mail]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943195/The-political-centre-disappearing-grave-danger-lies-ahead-says-JOHN-GRAY.html

Update, 24 April 2019

The mad jamboree which passes for UK democracy in 2019 continues apace. Ann Widdecombe, one of the worst Home Secretaries ever, is going to be a Brexit Party candidate (for the EU Parliament seat of South West England). She says that she will still vote Conservative in the local elections. Having just looked up her details, it seems that she is 71. I thought that she was at least 80.

The tweet below captures the mood:

At least Ann Widdecombe is an animal-lover, especially cat-lover…

Update, 27 April 2019

Britain Elects organization has just today tweeted as below:

As can be seen, and with less than 28 days to go before polling (assuming that the UK takes part in the EU elections), Brexit Party is neck and neck with Labour and has the momentum. The Conservatives are rapidly becoming also-rans as far as the EU elections are concerned. It looks as though those voters who want to cast an anti-EU/Leave/Brexit vote are going with Brexit Party, leaving UKIP to flounder around near the bottom of the poll. All or almost all UKIP votes are going to Brexit Party. Most Eurosceptic former Conservative voters are also going to Brexit Party. This is going to be interesting.

Meanwhile, in less than 5 days, there are the local elections. There, the results may also be dramatic, but not to the same extent: Brexit Party not standing, UKIP not standing for most council seats (and at present has only 101 councillors out of a possible 20,712); only about a third of council seats being contested this year. Also, in many parts of the South of England, there is little “democratic choice”, with most candidates posted being Conservative, the Labour and LibDem parties not contesting all seats.

Update, 1 May 2019

8,804 local council and other seats are in contest tomorrow, 2 May 2019. The Conservatives are contesting 96% of those seats. Labour will be contesting the majority of them. The LibDems are contesting some. UKIP have 18 candidates standing. Brexit Party is not contesting these elections:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

As far as the EU elections of 23 May are concerned, the latest polls show an irresistible rise for Brexit Party, which is running somewhere around 33% now; the corollary is UKIP on only about 4%, not helped by the bizarre behaviour of UKIP’s MEP candidate “Sargon of Akkad” (Carl Benjamin), the “alt-Right” vlogger standing for the South West England constituency.

Meanwhile…

This is incredible! I am not a “supporter” of Farage or “Brexit Party”, but this is the sort of reception that few get! Reminiscent of the Fuhrer (though without the depth or substance, of course). Brexit Party is on a roll! Only three weeks to go before the moment of truth (EU elections).

Update, 11 May 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour

A Look at Some UK Political and Social Realities

Illusion is something that many prefer to reality, as this cartoon indicates:

CeZuS7OUsAEF2Lj

They want not only their daily bread but also their daily illusion.” [Adolf Hitler, talking about many Germans during the decadent Weimar Republic of 1918-1933]

The Green Party

This blog article was prompted by a tweet that I happened to see, tweeted by one Jonathan Bartley, the “co-leader” of the Green Party.

The Green Party is so large and important now that it has to have not one but two “co-leaders”. Well, jesting aside, there must be some other reason (almost certainly something very very silly) that necessitates two leaders, the other “co-leader” being one Sian Berry.

Bartley seems to have come from an affluent background. He graduated from the LSE aged 23, thereafter floating around Westminster as researcher etc until he founded the think-tank, Ekklesia. He does not seem to have done (or have needed to do) any other work of much substance between the founding of Ekklesia in 2002 and being elected as Green Party co-leader in 2016.

Deputy Leader is 34-year-old Amelia Womack, who was elected to her party position aged 29, having never been elected to any public position (not even as local councillor); neither has she ever had a paid job of any kind, it seems. She is a candidate in the upcoming Newport West by-election:

see https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/02/28/the-newport-west-by-election/

Now the facts are (i.e. the reality is) that the Green Party of England and Wales, founded 1990, has 1 MP (out of 650), 1 member of the House of Lords (out of 781), 3 MEPs (out of 64 English/Welsh seats), 2 London Assembly members (out of 25), and 178 local councillors (out of 19,023).

The Green Party is polling at somewhere around 5% nationally (it has been as low as 2% in recent years), and only has its one MP by reason of the unusual demographics and the (in 2010, when Caroline Lucas was first elected) 4-way voting split in the constituency of Brighton Pavilion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Pavilion_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

In other words, the Green Party is like a tame rat on a wheel. Lots of activity and noise, but nothing really achieved. It’s not that I am opposed to all Green Party policies. I like some of its environmental policies, its support for Basic Income, its concern for animal welfare etc. There has, after all, always been connection between what are now called “green” ideals and social-nationalism. I have even blogged about it:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/social-nationalism-and-green-politics/

Where I cannot accompany the Green Party is in its apparent belief that open borders are good, mass immigration of inferior peoples into Europe is good, or that the EU is mostly very good for the UK.

ClVU6MSWgAAmfK6

I agree with the Greens when they say that FPTP voting is unfair on them (as on, in the past, UKIP, the BNP and the National Front, among others). Even 5% of votes should give the Greens around 30 MPs, whereas they may soon struggle to retain their one (though Caroline Lucas is a known TV face and probably will stay for a while). However, to say that UK political life is unfair is really just a pathetic bleat even if true (which it is).

At some point, reality will have to dawn on the Green Party members (surprisingly, nearly 40,000 of them). Or maybe not. I think that many Green Party members probably like their nursery politics game, which they must know in their hearts can never lead to serious results; but it makes them feel good and virtuous.

The Green Party is not about to get MPs elected or sweep the country in any way. The Green Party will simply continue as it is, a virtue-signalling pressure group pretending to be a political party. However, relatively few British people will vote for a party that supports both mass immigration and UK membership of the EU; neither will voters give credence to a party which has no one clear leader and which seems to be a refuge (even in its top-most ranks) for perpetual students and/or virtue-signalling and hugely self-deluded persons.

The Nationalist Milieu

It is often said that the plethora of food programmes on TV are a kind of “food porn” for people who rarely if ever cook. Well, the so-called “far right” (I myself never use terms such as “Left”, “Right” etc) or nationalist political tendency is rather like that: the Zionists, their “useful idiot” “antifa” offshoots, the msm too, and of course the System apparatchiki such as police, all like to say that there is a huge “danger” from “far right extremism” etc. If only! In reality, what exists at present is a mixture of hobby politics, “I’m the leader!” (of 2.5 people) parties, and politically-tinged 1970s football hooligan groups, together with System politics under nationalist camouflage (as with UKIP).

People of my vintage (b.1956), will recall (the now notorious) Gary Glitter singing “I’m the leader!” in 1973, a psychology characteristic of both “I’m the Leader!” parties and, usually, “hobby parties” (though every successful political party has to have a credible leader).

The English Democrats

I am starting with the English Democrats because they seem to me to epitomize the “hobby politics” sort of party. They claim(ed) to have over 2,000 members (2015), though I daresay that even that was a gross overestimation. I personally only ever heard of one member by name (my mother-in-law’s former neighbour), and he was a very strange man, a retired pilot aged about 70 (c.80, now). I would not be surprised if that man were fairly typical of the English Democrats’ members.

The English Democrats were founded in 2002. Their best electoral result was in the Mayoral race at Doncaster in 2009, which they won. They would also have won in 2013, had the Mayor not resigned from the English Democrats not long before the election. He still stood but as Independent and lost to Labour by only 590 votes, the EDs having put up their own candidate, who received 4,615 votes.

Police and Crime Commissioner elections have been their second best (highest vote-share just over 15%). In local elections, they have reached over 10% here and there, with their leader, Robin Tilbrook, receiving 18.2% of the vote in an election for the Epping Forest District Council. In Westminster elections, all results have been below —far below— 1% (in 2017, about a tenth of 1% in each of the seven seats contested).

The English Democrats have few policies, and those so bland that they could be espoused by several other parties, including System ones. Even the “English Parliament” idea has been mooted by System MPs occasionally.

“[Robin Tilbrook’s] party agitates for anyone living in England. His notion of Englishness is akin to American notions of “Americanness” – that you can be from any ethnic background and still wrap yourself in the flag.” [from an American newspaper interview]. So someone straight off the boat from God knows where is “English”, so long as living in England, according to that idiot! Even his professed “Euroscepticism” is very muted (and is based on the disproportionate amount of EU funding going to non-English parts of the UK).

The English Democrats are the “hobby politics” party par excellence. Mr. Tilbrook will never be blacklisted by the msm, nor targeted seriously by “antifa” or the Jewish lobby. He will never be interrogated by the police. He has in fact been invited onto TV occasionally and given a polite hearing, e.g. on BBC Daily Politics. He is even a Freeman of the City of London (awarded 2011)! Members of the EDs can write letters to the Daily Telegraph and talk at the bar of their golf clubs without let or hindrance. A waste of time worthy of P.G. Wodehouse.

For Britain Movement

I have blogged about “For Britain” previously. This party, though partly on the right track in terms of policy, is basically a one-trick pony. “You can have any colour so long as it is black!” [Henry Ford, re. the Model T car]; with “For Britain”, you can have any policy so long as it is anti-Islamism. Not that I oppose that view, but it is not enough.

For Britain is not exactly a “hobby politics” party, but it is really just a one-man or one-woman band, closely aligned with the policy-free beer-bottle throwers of the English Defence League and their one-time leader, the person usually known as Tommy Robinson.

The leader of For Britain, Irish lesbian former secretary Anne-Marie Waters (“Maria” originally), certainly has some followers, and For Britain has some members, as witness the local election campaign poster linked below, but how many is unclear. Probably fewer than 100. Quite possibly only about 50.

https://gab.com/forBritainMovement/posts/cmZhcTB0NWp1VnlVdlF1SUhEdE4yUT09

The party fielded fifteen candidates in the 2018 local elections, none being elected.[11] The party came last in almost all the seats it contested.[12] In June 2018, the party expelled one of its local election candidates after Hope Not Hate linked him to the proscribed neo-Nazi group National Action and the white nationalist group Generation Identity

[Wikipedia]

So “For Britain” (which says, pathetically, to the Jew-Zionist lobby, “look, we’re pro-Israel!” in the forlorn hope that the Jews will not hate it), sacked someone at least active enough to get up from his chair and stand as a candidate, simply because the unpleasant “Hope Not Hate” crowd fingered him!

As for Anne-Marie Waters, she herself stood in the Lewisham East by-election of 2018, receiving 266 votes (1.2% of votes cast; 7th place, behind Labour, LibDem, Con, Green, Women’s Equality and UKIP, but just ahead of Christian People, Monster Raving Loony, and 5 other minor candidates). “For Britain” is no good even as a protest vote in a by-election!

Sometimes, I wonder whether this or that group, party or movement or “leader” is not a put-up-job by the enemy, but in reality the likelihood is that these people are just deluded, indulging in near-pointless political activity. Having said that, it suits “Hope Not Hate” and the other manipulators of “antifa” idiots to have something to point at and say, “Look! Nazis/neo-Nazis/Fascists!” (etc).

Who, who would join something as one-dimensional, as limited, as “For Britain”? God knows. Not many have joined, anyway.

UKIP

Well, here we are at last out of the “hobby politics” and “I’m the Leader” areas, though plenty of UKIP members are hobby politicos. UKIP, though, is the real thing: a functioning political party, conservative-nationalist, and which at one time had two or three MPs (albeit temporary cast-offs), still has 7 MEPs (out of a possible 73), as well as 1 member of the House of Lords, 3 Welsh Assembly members (out of a possible 60) and 101 local councillors (out of a possible 20,712).

UKIP might have broken through to a measure of power in 2015 but did not, and now never will. It peaked in 2014. A succession of poor leaders (the present one is slightly better than those that followed Farage) crippled already-failing UKIP, whose membership, at one time reaching 50,000, is now somewhere below 23,000. UKIP has always been semi-tolerated by the System (inc. the Jew-Zionist lobby) and has now gone over to a basically one-trick-pony policy position which is not far from the offerings of Tommy Robinson, Anne-Marie Waters and the whole effectively pro-Jew and pro-Israel “alt-Right”/”alt-Lite” crowd (the British ones of prominence have in fact recently joined UKIP: “Prison Planet” Watson, “Count Dankula” Meechan, “Sargon of Akkad” Benjamin. All wastes of space).

To join or support UKIP now, except perhaps as a way of protesting pointlessly in an election, is just silly. It could not get one MP in 27 years (leaving aside the Conservative few who defected briefly), not even in 2015 when it was voted for by 1 out of every 8 voters! The voting system is rigged and flawed, and that suits the System parties very well.

UKIP’s vote in 2015 (nearly 4 million votes) fell to less than a seventh of that in 2017.

UKIP too is in the realm of political unreality, at least as far as elections are concerned.

How to go toward a realistic political viewpoint

The short to medium term future is uncertain and likely to bring revolutionary change to the world. I recently blogged about this:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/01/26/the-tide-is-coming-in-reflections-on-the-possible-end-of-our-present-civilization-and-what-might-follow/

As far as UK politics is concerned, it is clear that the major urban areas are no-go zones for nationalist parties, at least in respect of getting MPs elected. They can only be viewed as recruitment pools at present.

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/02/04/white-flight-in-a-small-country/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/what-can-be-done-to-create-a-social-national-movement-in-the-uk/

To pretend that a movement or party can be founded, then play the game of System politics, is otiose. UKIP tried that —and was semi-System anyway— yet failed utterly in any attempt to gain power (though I concede that UKIP did obliquely achieve the holding of and result of the 2016 EU Referendum, which result however is now being cynically betrayed by cosmopolitan conspirators such as the Jew Letwin and the virtue-signalling hypocrite Yvette Cooper… even as I write).

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/has-parliamentary-democracy-as-we-have-known-it-until-now-had-its-day-in-the-uk/

The fast-breeding ethnic minorities, including mixed-race elements, are collectively only a few decades away from becoming the majority in the UK. In some cities and towns, they are already the majority. That fact alone makes ordinary democratic politics a no-win situation for social-nationalism.

A social-national movement must be built from the ground up, and on a basis of reality, even if that reality looks, at present, like the sheerest fantasy.

Notes

https://www.greenparty.org.uk/people/deputy-leader-amelia-womack.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amelia_Womack

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/02/28/the-newport-west-by-election/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_England_and_Wales

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekklesia_(think_tank)

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/02/28/the-newport-west-by-election/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Pavilion_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/social-nationalism-and-green-politics/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Democrats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Tilbrook

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Doncaster#2013

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Britain_Movement

https://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2018/09/19/britain-magnet-racists-nazis/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewisham_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/03/06/what-about-the-ukip-revival/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/has-parliamentary-democracy-as-we-have-known-it-until-now-had-its-day-in-the-uk/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-39257452

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/whatever-happened-english-democrats

Update, 5 April 2019

Foolish people are now saying that the result of the Newport by-election (held yesterday, 4 April 2019) was a “very good result” for UKIP

In fact, UKIP came third, exactly where it was in the previous two general election contests at Newport West, and while its 8.6% of votes looks good vis-a-vis 2017 (2.5%), UKIP got 15.2% in 2015:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

This was just a by-election protest vote and a pretty muted one.

The Greens came 6th, with 924 votes (3.9%).

As for “For Britain Movement”, its candidate came last out of the 11 candidates, getting 159 votes (0.7%). This party is wasting the time of its few members.

Update, 9 April 2019

The EDs are claiming that the UK is already out of the EU and have launched a judicial review application to “prove” the same. Rarely has wish so directly confronted political reality.

https://twitter.com/endtimes23/status/1115235740743548928

Update, 12 April 2019; a few thoughts about the near-future EU and local elections

The Brexit mess, so spectacularly mishandled by Theresa May and the idiotic careerists around her, may save UKIP from immediate collapse as a party, inasmuch as many British voters will want to punish the Conservative Party one way or the other. There may be a “perfect storm” for the Conservative Party, pressured on two fronts by both the Leave and Remain sides.

There will soon be elections for the European Parliament, on 23 May 2019. Recent opinion polling seems to be saying that Labour will have a landslide: initial voting intentions show Labour on 37.8% (up from 24.4% in 2016); Conservatives at 23.1% (unchanged), Brexit Party (Nigel Farage’s new party) 10%, LibDem 8%, UKIP 7.5%, Change UK (the recent Lab/Con defector MPs’ vehicle) around 4%, among others.

One has to be cautious in assuming that the above opinion poll reflects the likely outcome. The same poll seems to indicate that, after discussion, many pro-EU voters prefer Change UK (which would hit Labour and LibDem levels), while anti-EU voters may prefer either UKIP or Brexit Party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1112942/european-elections-voting-intentions-uk-conservative-labour-brexit-party

Before the EU elections (in which the UK may not participate at all if the UK leaves the UK before 23 May), there will be local elections, on 2 May 2019. The indications are that, in those elections, Labour may also sweep the poll, with Labour benefiting not only from the “pendulum” or “see-saw” effect of elections in a system using FPTP voting, but also from abstentions by usual Con voters (or by their voting for Brexit Party or UKIP).

As far as the local elections are concerned, Labour starts the campaign with several advantages. The decade of spending cuts has finally impacted even the most true-blue Conservative areas. Labour has a army of local activists, thanks to its membership surge under Corbyn. It also has funds from the same source.

The Conservatives have few local activists now and most are beyond retirement age. The party looks tired. The Brexit mess can only be laid at the door of Theresa May and her Cabinet. The Cons will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in the areas voting on 2 May.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/11/conservative-mps-may-boycott-european-election-campaign

There are also strategic factors. The Conservative Party claims 124,000 members, which seems high (average 200 members per constituency). Most are elderly. Few are active. The median age for Conservative voters has also risen, to 52. Recent polling has shown that only 16% of voters under 35 support the Cons, and only 4% of those under 25 do so.

Returning to UKIP etc, the Brexit Party will obviously have the effect of splitting the Leave/Brexit hard core.

Update, 17 April 2019

The “For Britain” “Movement” (can 50 people be a “movement”?) has posted on GAB that they are not “far right” (whatever that means) and in some ways are no more “extreme” than Margaret Thatcher and not even really “socially conservative”. Oh dear…pretty pathetic.

https://gab.com/forBritainMovement/posts/NUk1Q1haVXY3RVRCcFV2ZzZPbTR4UT09

I don’t know why I am even wasting 10 minutes of my ever-shorter lifespan examining this fake “movement” with its 50 members, especially after its recent (latest) electoral debacle at the Newport West by-election (last-placed out of 11 candidates; 159 votes, which represented 0.7% of votes cast).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Newport_West_by-election#Result

Still, it confirms what I wrote in the original blog post, I suppose…

Update, 10 May 2019

Harold Wilson was right: “a week is a long time in British politics”. In the five weeks since the above article was written, at least two matters of importance have occurred

  • the local elections trashed the Conservatives (who lost over 1,300 seats), but Labour more or less stood still (losing 82 councillors), which was interpreted as failure by many;
  • Brexit Party burst into life and now has 100,000 members (by any other name).