Tag Archives: Nick Clegg

Diary Blog, 3 January 2025, with some news and thoughts from and about Israel and/or occupied Palestine

Afternoon music

[video clip from the 1965 Soviet film War and Peace]

Tweets seen

Israeli Jewish woman commenting. No compassion, no reserve, no decency. Typical.

Again. Listen to the accent, too. American. Another carpetbagging Jewish settler or other incomer, living on land on which she wrongly believes her ancestors lived (and which therefore gives her and others some kind of divinely-ordained right).

In reality:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/scientists-reveal-jewish-history-s-forgotten-turkish-roots-a6992076.html

and

https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/2014-09-10/ty-article/.premium/ashkenazim-derive-from-350-people/0000017f-e175-d75c-a7ff-fdfd58830000

Translation: “I remembered that I am a Zionist Jew, and that that trumps anything else, including everyone else’s rights“…

Even if Israel were to kill a million non-Jewish women, children, and other non-combatants (and the Israelis are well on the way, even in the past 15 months), many, perhaps most, Jews in both Israel and the West (including the UK) will respond to the expressed horror of others by referring back to the several hundreds killed by the Hamas assault of 7 October 2023.

A 15-month mechanized killing-machine operation, compared to an attack in one relatively small part of Israel abutting Gaza, which latter attack lasted a few hours, or a day or so.

Now the Israeli state is basically killing the surviving population in Gaza, via cold, hunger, destruction of hospitals, removal of help, medical aid, shelter, and also by randomly killing Gazan civilians of all ages.

No doubt, Israel will eventually settle the bulk, maybe the whole, of Gaza with militant Jews from places such as the slums of Brooklyn, or American/Australian/whatever suburbia.

At present, the Israelis are doing to Gaza exactly what the Romans did to defeated Carthage, but worse, because they are not even providing the survivors of the Gaza slaughter anywhere to go. Look at this report from the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-02/ty-article-live/israeli-airstrike-kills-at-least-10-in-southern-gaza-medics-say/00000194-2504-dcc4-a1d7-3da4d1770000.

ISRAEL: Members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee say IDF’s actions in Gaza foil war’s objectives; all food, water sources must be destroyed.

[Haaretz]

See also:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-02/ty-article-magazine/.premium/tel-aviv-started-like-this-at-this-event-israelis-were-calling-to-settle-in-lebanon/00000194-2611-da14-adb7-767dff330000

It’s now time to fix the border,’ said one of the members of a group that gathered on the northern border during Hanukkah, to press for the expansion of the Galilee, into Lebanon.”

[Haaretz]

See also:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-05/ty-article-magazine/.premium/we-give-them-48-hours-to-leave-israels-plans-to-transfer-gazans-go-back-60-years/00000193-9716-dac2-add3-b75e12d30000

“Diluting the population,” “evacuating homes,” “expulsion,” “exile,” “emptying” and even “transfer.” A broad array of words was used by Israeli government ministers during the historic deliberations in the 1960s and 1970s.”

[Haaretz]

“Resettlement”? That sounds familiar. Where have I heard that before?…

Is that the plan? (as well as taking over all European and European-origined states from the inside, via the “you know who” fifth column)…

A few Israeli Jews are dissenting from the mainstream Jewish opinion, it seems:

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-12-23/ty-article-opinion/.premium/when-you-enter-gaza-you-are-god-inside-the-minds-of-idf-soldiers-who-commit-war-crimes/00000193-f2a4-dc18-a3db-fee62b540000

and

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-21/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/with-its-megalomaniacal-arrogance-israel-is-turning-into-ancient-athens/00000193-dfeb-d684-a9db-ffefe29b0000

Archaeological study about wolves and humans in North America’s remote past

https://www.haaretz.com/archaeology/2024-12-04/ty-article/early-americans-were-feeding-wolves-study-suggests/00000193-920a-d006-a7d3-da3f130f0000

Early Americans Were Feeding Wolves and Coyotes, Study Suggests

The story of dog domestication isn’t as straightforward as assumed, analysis of large canid remains in ancient settlements in Alaska implies. Doesn’t mean the wolves or coyotes were pets.”

[Haaretz]

More tweets seen

Suella Braverman is just yet another useless and pretty stupid “diversity hire”, like Lammy, and Shabana Mahmood.

Talking point

[Robert Jenrick]

I have little time for Jenrick, another complete puppet of the Jewish/Zionist/Israel lobby, but even a stopped clock is right once a day (or twice).

More tweets

If there is one (now-ex-) politician I despise, it is Clegg. In 2010, a gullible voting public gave him enough MPs to demand electoral reform. Gordon Brown was willing to give him the halfway house of AV (Alternative Vote) at once (in 2010) without even having to hold a referendum; then later a referendum on real proportional representation, in return for basic LibDem support in the Commons for a minority Labour government.

That could have changed everything, but Clegg and his pathetic LibDem crew sold out to the fake “Conservatives” under David Cameron-Levita, and for what? Ministerial jobs, red boxes, government cars, higher salaries, and the fiction that the LibDems were finally “in government” in a meaningful way. That and, as a figleaf, a rigged AV Referendum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum

Clegg and his LibDem crew acquiesced in all the terrible and damaging policies carried out by the part-Jews Cameron-Levita and Osborne between 2010 and 2015, then jumped ship to work (at a salary in the millions) for the Jew Zuckerberg at Facebook in California.

Someone completely venal, and completely useless, with neither honour nor integrity.

Incidentally, “Shortly ahead of the election, Clegg was asked about his own expenses by Andrew Neil of the BBC. Clegg allegedly claimed the full amount permissible under the Additional Cost Allowance, including claims for food, gardening and redecorating his second home. The Telegraph also said Clegg claimed £80 for international call charges.” [Wikipedia].

He took every penny he could despite his inherited family monies and trust fund, and despite both he and his wife being paid hundreds of thousands of pounds annually via salaries and (possibly) more legitimate expenses claims. The “food allowance”, by the way, was (until done away with sometime after 2010) a boondoggle via which MPs could claim up to about £500 a month, no questions asked or receipts required, “for food”. Many MPs, like Clegg, and like that horrible Jewish-lobby puppet Tom Watson [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Watson,_Baron_Watson_of_Wyre_Forest], claimed the full amount (worth at least £950 a month in the money of 2025) every single month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Clegg.

Does the revolt start here?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/02/death-of-middle-class-professional-spells-danger-for-labour

Graduate pay is falling – and an aggrieved generation could join white-collar workers in supporting Reform UK.

[Guardian]

Reform UK is but a stepping-stone, not the ultimate destination, and in multiple error ideologically, but the basic premise, based on the revolt of the “graduates” (whatever that really means these days), is interesting. The NSDAP was supported by many students and —often disenchanted— graduates.

More tweets seen

My tentative opinion on that is that Trump is someone who likes to present himself as someone who gets things done. If Russia stays firm, Trump will offer more, probably.

From the Russian side, all that matters is whether Trump continues to give arms, ammunition, and money to the Kiev regime. There are three possibilities— more, less, or the same. “Less” can be split into “some” or “none”. My money is on “less” (but still “some”). That would mean that, in view of Russia’s superiority in numbers, arms, ammunition, and money, as well as having the backstop of both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, Russian forces will continue to advance steadily in Eastern Ukraine during 2025.

As often said on this blog, Russia cannot lose this war and will not lose it.

Having said that, it is tragic that the Russian forces seemed pathetically incapable of executing a swift “Blitzkrieg for the sake of mercy” in early 2022, when the whole of Eastern Ukraine, as well as Odessa and Kiev, might easily have been taken with minimal loss of life and minimal damage generally.

Wilfully naive. The clue is in the name (Labour Friends of Israel)…

Forget the old “right”/”left” stuff.

Of the four seen fully in that photo, Wes Streeting, Ruth Smeeth, Jess Phillips, Anna Turley, two or three, I think three, are at least part-Jewish.

Talking point

Late tweets

The last hurrah of the Kiev regime.

Late music

[Bocklin, Ruins by the Sea]

Diary Blog, Christmas Eve 2022

Whether it be called Christmas or Yuletide, the essence is the same.

No more wars within the European family and, now that Sovietism has perished under its own weight, no more wars with Russia or the Russian people.

[I made the same points on Christmas Eve last year, suspecting but not knowing that they would be even more urgently relevant in 2022].

On this day a year ago

Saturday quiz

Well, this week brings another victory over political journalist John Rentoul; he scored 4/10, but I trumped that with 6/10. I did not know the answers to questions 4, 6, 7, and 8.

Tweets seen

Even were Ukraine (the Kiev regime) able to defeat Russian forces, decisively, in the field, which is unlikely, that result would only then lead to the use by Russia of tactical or even strategic nuclear weapons, or to the decision to use fleets of bombers to reduce Kiev to rubble. Putin cannot accept the loss of “captured” territory in the “Russian” areas of Ukraine (Crimea and the Donbass), whatever happens

Maybe. That does chime with Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four, of course. A prophet, of sorts.

My assessment from 30 September 2022 (I am far more critical now, having seen more evidence): https://ianrobertmillard.org/2022/09/30/diary-blog-30-september-2022-including-an-assessment-of-jack-monroe-aka-the-bootstrap-cook/.

From the newspapers

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11571009/Government-introduce-unlimited-fines-PRISON-sentences-illegally-cut-trees.html

At last, something the Government has done and of which I approve.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11570541/Divorced-gay-vicar-quits-parish-amid-claims-drunken-rows-string-girlfriends.html

Typical of the Church of England in 2022— slab-faced lesbian priestesses preaching the gospel of “woke”. Time to disestablish this institution.

Twitter

The layout seems to have changed overnight. No longer is there a “latest” (tweets) column, allowing one to peruse a timeline in sequence by subject. This is very poor, eroding much of the point of Twitter.

More tweets

Clegg and his Spanish lawyer wife now live in one of the most expensive neighbourhoods in the USA, near San Francisco. He betrayed the British people before taking the Facebook shilling (in fact, millions) and fleeing to the United States.

Sean Penn needs a good kicking.

“Dr” Louise Raw crowdfund appeal

The kefuffle around the crowdfunder launched by “Dr” Louise Raw to (ostensibly) sue Jeremy Clarkson continues, with people not only saying that it is doomed on its own terms (for legal reasons, and as I pointed out a few days ago on the blog), but suggesting that the whole thing is a “grift” or near-(?) fraud by Louise Raw, something which I doubted when I wrote about it (if only because it seemed to me that it would be difficult to get away with a blatant fraud of that sort). Maybe I was too kind.

I had thought that Louise Raw would not want to taint her “militant” or pseudo-revolutionary image to her mug followers on Twitter by keeping some of the money for her own use. On the other hand, the said “woke” mug Twitter followers are usually pretty dim, as can be seen in some of their responses to the legal critique of this doomed attempt to sue Clarkson.

Come to that, look at the fundraiser promoted by Roanna Carleton-Taylor on behalf of “grifting” fake “historian” and “journalist”, Mike Stuchbery (along with some Paki-stani solicitor whose name I forget). They raised about £12,000, which as far as I know has never since seen the light of day.

Unless I discover otherwise, I shall believe that, on the balance of probabilities, those monies were split between “Roanna” and Stuchbery, with the solicitor getting a bit by way of “professional fees” (for doing almost nothing but sending one letter to Tommy Robinson). Certainly, no legal action was ever launched. About 800 “woke” mugs donated to that crowdfunder.

Stuchbery still has over 88,000 Twitter followers, though Roanna Carleton-Taylor has apparently withdrawn from online activism (I have no idea whether or not the police took an interest in her and/or her husband’s other activities, as claimed by some people). Anyway, there it is.

See also: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/10/23/a-few-words-about-mike-stuchbery/ and https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/11/27/mike-stuchbery-and-tommy-robinson-legal-dispute/.

Then, of course, we have —what increasingly looks like— a continuing and outright “grift” by the so-called “Bootstrap Cook”, who calls herself “Jack Monroe”.

As of today, 643 mugs, donating regularly via Patreon, are closing their eyes to the very telling exposures of “Jack Monroe” which have appeared since, especially, August 2022; they are supplying her, in aggregate, with monies amounting to some sum between £2,300 and £30,000 each month. Maybe, at a pure guess, about £6,000 or so, monthly. Probably taxfree, too.

“Jack Monroe” also had a crowdfund appeal going from May 2022, ostensibly in order that she could sue MP Lee Anderson and political activist/commentator Martin Daubney. People donated, but (quelle surprise) the “defamation case” has never been initiated, and the monies donated have disappeared into what might be called the “Jack Monroe” lifestyle fund…

“Jack Monroe”, despite everything, not only still has that cadre of 643 utter mugs sending her money every month, but also has no fewer than 563,000 “followers” on Twitter.

See also: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2022/09/30/diary-blog-30-september-2022-including-an-assessment-of-jack-monroe-aka-the-bootstrap-cook/.

Even that ridiculous West Indian woman who caused a fuss recently at Buckingham Palace, and who literally “cosplays” as a tribal African, not only managed to rip off £170,000 before people started to look into the affairs of her blacks-only “charity”, but also, tellingly, has since then managed to get hundreds of mugs to donate another £36,000 in order to help to buy “her charity” a house. Unglaublich!

In other words, those “grifters” have not at all been damaged by what some have been calling outright theft of donated monies, because they make the right sort of “politically correct” or “woke” noises.

Perhaps that is what will happen to Louise Raw’s crowdfunder, i.e. a small amount will go to a solicitor, and Counsel, in return for a nicely-written Advice advising that legal action against Clarkson is impossible, after which Louise Raw will (I speculate, of course) keep whatever is left, perhaps donating a thousand or so to a domestic violence charity (on the publicized record, for public show).

Louise Raw is notably reticent with some information, e.g. as to her own background, including where she studied for her “doctorate” (if any) and her first and Master’s degrees (if any). It may be that she never will give information as to where the bulk of the monies raised went (or shall we say “disappeared”?). All she would have to do, on that hypothesis, is to say that the monies went to suitable “good causes” and that the “good causes” “requested no publicity” or some such. “Jack Monroe” has tried that one in the past, and the mug donors just accepted it as true, so…

More tweets seen

The first tweet above of course refers to 1. The absurd Marlene-something-posing-as-African; 2. “Jack Monroe” (and her dog’s dinner “cooking”); 3. Dr. Julia Grace Patterson (was very briefly an NHS doctor, now lives off “grifting” and/or selling useless facemasks etc); 4. Either Louise Raw, or notorious fox-batterer Jolyon Maugham, the narcissistic New Zealand-educated barrister and “activist”, and his largely pointless “Good Law Project” (anyone who saw his lamentable ignorance on Christmas University Challenge recently might prefer to keep their money).

Incidentally, I just saw a few tweets by “Jack Monroe” about how hard it was for her (supposedly a recovering alcoholic) to find mince pies in the supermarket made without alcohol. Surely a quasi-professional cook would make her own, especially at Christmas? Oh, well, there it is.

Those refer to Louise Raw and her stupid (or maybe not so stupid, if indeed it is a “grift”) crowdfunder.

I was just trying to remember what were the best fees I myself ever got for one-off written Advices when I was at the Bar. I do not include advice given when I was a salaried lawyer overseas in the late 1990s (Kazakhstan, Caribbean, elsewhere), and provided to large companies such as Raytheon, because I was then charged out at about USD $400 an hour, but that money went to the law firm(s), not me personally.

I think that the best fees for basic written Advices that I myself ever had were somewhere in the region of (in the money of 15-30 years ago) somewhat short of a thousand pounds (you could/might double that to put it in the money of 2022), so fairly modest compared to Counsel in the best —or best-padded— chambers.

I do recall, when working in Charleston (South Carolina) in 2002, telephoning to London to ask the Clerk of one of the top company law chambers in Gray’s Inn as to how much a written Advice from one of their QCs would cost. The document in question was 17pp long, but the only important bit consisted of only two paragraphs, and on only one page. A few alternatives were offered, but the bottom line was— £4,000 to £5,000. Again, maybe you would have to increase that by 50% or even 100% today, but even so, the £15,000 appealed for by Louise Raw seems high, particularly in view of the non-commercial subject-matter.

“Wokes” such as “Dr” Louise Raw always claim to be speaking up etc for the people, but the said “wokes” seem to forget that they chose the losing side re. Brexit, in the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, the 2016 US Election etc. Not that I myself favour Trump or the “British” Conservative Party, or even mishandled Brexit, as such, but the “wokes” are in a Twitter (etc) echo chamber where they refuse to even listen to, or see, any views contrary to their own; indeed, they try to “deplatform” people, as do the Jew-Zionists. Louise Raw is a prime example of an “I’m not listening” “woke”. No wonder they always get things wrong.

Incidentally, Louise Raw is on Twitter as “@LouiseRawAuthor”. “Author“?Technically so, because she has had one (non-fiction) book published, a decade or so ago. Is that really enough, though, to validate a self-description as an “author“? Maybe in her world, just as it seems to be OK, in her world, or mind, to call herself “Doctor” based on a “doctorate” granted (if indeed she has one) on the basis of the same subject-matter as her sole book, a strike of match-factory girls in London in 1888.

Late music

[Glacier Peak, Washington state, USA; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacier_Peak]

Could the LibDems Win A General Election in 2019-2020?

Background

Nearly eight years ago, when I still had a Twitter account (read “before the Jew-Zionists prevailed upon Twitter to expel me”), I tweeted that the LibDems were finished. At that time, around 2011, the height of the Con Coalition, the LibDem careerists were signing up to pretty much everything required of them by the misnamed “Conservatives”. In fact, even now in 2019, new tales come to light about how totally supine the LibDems in coalition were: recently, for example, it was revealed that the LibDems agreed to screw down harder on the sick and disabled in return for a 5p tax on plastic shopping bags.

The public were so disgusted by the LibDems 2010-2015 that the LibDem support and vote in the country hit almost rock-bottom in 2015. The 2010 general election had seen so-called “Cleggmania” and a popular vote of 23%, resulting in 57 House of Commons seats. In fact, that 23% was only 1 point above the level achieved in 2005 under the LibDems’ former (1999-2006) leader, Charles Kennedy; the LibDems in 2010 had 5 fewer seats than they had in 2005.

Naturally, the UK’s unfair First Past The Post [FPTP] political system left the LibDems with far fewer Commons seats than they “deserved” by reference to their popular vote. 23% of the 2010 popular vote “should” have given the LibDems about 150 MPs, not 57.

The 2010 hung Parliament result gave the LibDems their chance to demand proportional representation, instead of which their leadership (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander and David Laws, mainly) accepted from the Conservative Party leader, David Cameron-Levita, the mere promise of a referendum on Alternative Vote [AV], a halfway house between FPTP voting and proportional representation [PR].

Gordon Brown, on behalf of Labour, the then Prime Minister, was willing to offer the LibDems immediate AV, via a new law to be passed by Labour and LibDem MPs, but the LibDems instead (and to my mind inexplicably) chose the Conservative offer of a mere referendum on AV over the Labour offer of immediate AV. When they did that, it was already clear that the LibDems (so called “Orange Book” LibDems, meaning pro-finance capitalist LibDems) much preferred to make common cause with the Conservatives.

This “Orange Book” “liberalism” underpinned what the LibDems did in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015. The “Orange Book” itself took the LibDems far from the positions of the old Liberal Party and even from those of the LibDem party itself during the time when it was in the hands of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy.

The authors of the Orange Book favoured socio-political positions not far from those of leading members of the Conservative Party post-2000: effectively anti-Welfare State, pro-business, socially-judgmental, favouring so-called “choice” etc.

It is striking how many of the Orange Book authors have, in the years since its publication, been hit by scandal:

  • David Laws: found to have cheated on his Parliamentary expenses to the tune of about £40,000; many thought him fortunate not to have been prosecuted for fraud;
  • Chris Huhne: prosecuted and imprisoned for the very silly crime of perversion of the course of justice relating to a speeding offence [cf. Fiona Onasanya];
  • Mark Oaten, exposed as a coprophiliac and user of “rent boys”; since when Oaten has represented the International Fur Trade Federation, a largely Jewish body despised by animal-lovers worldwide. Oaten was also a supporter of fox-hunting.

“Only” three, but three out of only nine LibDems who wrote the Orange Book (Oaten admitted that in fact his research assistant had written his, Oaten’s, designated chapter, and that he, Oaten, had not even read that chapter, let alone the rest of the book). Of the other LibDems involved, Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg both lost their Commons seats in 2015 and 2017 respectively, gratefully then accepting lucrative directorships from transnational finance-capitalist companies.

The LibDem fortunes since the days of the Con Coalition

The LibDem popular vote crashed in 2015, sliding from its 2010 level of 23% to only 7.9%. MP numbers were slashed from 57 to 8.

In 2017, the LibDem popular vote slumped further, to 7.4%, though by the quirk of the FPTP voting system combined with the way boundaries are drawn, the LibDems actually managed to increase the number of LibDem MPs from 8 in 2015 to 12 in 2017.

The present situation

Nick Clegg took the Zuckerberg shilling (or should that be million?) and became an apologist for Facebook. He was replaced by Tim Farron, someone who was from an earlier, Nonconformist tradition within the LibDems and their ancestor-party, the Liberals. For example, “Farron was one of only two Liberal Democrat MPs to vote against the under-occupancy penalty (also known as the bedroom tax) in 2012.” [Wikipedia]. Farron was in the anti-Orange Book Beveridge Group [see Notes, below].

In 2017, Farron in turn was replaced by another Orange Book author, Vince Cable. Then, in 2019, Jo Swinson took the reins. She, though very much of the Orange Book persuasion, is more identified publicly with “socially liberal” than with “fiscally conservative” positions. Jo Swinson held the positions of PPS, and then Business Minister, during the Con Coalition period, but has managed to escape too great an identification with the social policies of the Coalition. Surprising, really, in that she

  • “Almost always voted for reducing housing benefit for social tenants deemed to have excess bedrooms (which Labour describe as the “bedroom tax”)”;
  • “Consistently voted against raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices”;
  • “Consistently voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability”;
  • “Consistently voted for making local councils responsible for helping those in financial need afford their council tax and reducing the amount spent on such support”;
  • “Almost always voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits“;
  • “Almost always voted for reducing the rate of corporation tax

[see: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11971/jo_swinson/east_dunbartonshire/votes]

I have to say that I have always seen Jo Swinson as a ghastly bitch, who, like her husband (Duncan Hames, also a LibDem MP from, in his case only, 2010 to 2015) has been mainly a careerist type in politics; in Jo Swinson’s case, her brief period in provincial commerce before 2005 can only be seen as underwhelming, at best.

My view of Jo Swinson is, admittedly, mainly a personal impression based on what I have seen on TV etc. Her voting record on domestic UK issues must give pause, though, to those who see her as enlightened, socially compassionate etc.

Jo Swinson is a LibDem leader who does not frighten the Conservative horses. That could be key. In 2017, there were, if memory serves, 35 seats where the LibDems were in close 2nd place; there were many others where the LibDem was in close 3rd place. Most of those are Conservative-held seats. The implication is clear: if Brexit Party weakens an already-flagging Conservative vote, scores of (mainly) Conservative seats could fall, many to the LibDems. The Brexit Party is a major factor here.

Then we have the Remain vote. About 48% of the UK, famously, voted Remain. All three System parties were split in the 2016 Referendum, but the LibDems less so than the other two. As a party, the Conservative Party is now seen as basically Leave; the Labour Party is seen as sitting on the fence. That leaves the LibDems as the sole unalloyed Remain party. How that translates into votes and then into seats is another question. For one thing, people are likely to vote in any 2019/2020 general election on various issues, not only Brexit. However, Brexit is probably the one leading issue at time of writing.

The British electoral system is a bad joke. We know that a simple matter such as how the boundaries are drawn can alter everything:

c64bh5xw0aiwygy

In 2022, new boundaries will come into effect, along with the reduction of MP numbers to 600 (from the present 650). The Conservatives will be far less affected than Labour and the LibDems. It has been suggested that the LibDems will be all but wiped out by those changes. Perhaps, but any 2022 or later general election is still at least 2-3 years away. We are looking at the very strong likelihood of a general election within maybe only 2-3 months or so. The Conservatives would like to wait longer, but how can they, when they have a majority of one or none?

Boundaries and other factors make the popular vote indeterminative. In 2005, Labour’s popular vote was 35.2%, and the Conservative vote was not far behind (32.4%), yet Labour ended up with 355 MPs, while the Conservatives won only 198!

If the LibDems can gather to their banner the bulk of the votes of those for whom the number one issue is Brexit and for whom Remain is the only way to go, and then add those votes to the LibDem core support (which may be as low as 7%), then it is not impossible to conceive of the idea of the LibDems under Jo Swinson getting a vote at least as high as Charles Kennedy’s 22% or Nick Clegg’s 23%, and possibly even higher. As against that, many voters will not support the LibDems under any circumstances, either because the party is pro-EU Remain, or because it is seen as weak on immigration (but are the other two System parties any better?) or because most voters remember the LibDems as doormats for the Conservatives during 2010-2015.

In order to form the largest bloc in the House of Commons, the LibDems would have to get a popular vote in the region of 35% or 34%, both Lab and Con getting below 30%. Even then, the LibDems would be or might be at least 100 seats short of a majority.

As I have blogged previously, I do not think in terms of a LibDem surge, but more a concatenation of circumstances —LibDems as sole Remain party, weakening of Conservative vote because of Brexit Party, disenchantment with Labour— drawing votes away from the other parties and so to the LibDems. LibDems as largest Commons bloc? Unlikely but, now, not totally impossible.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Orange_Book:_Reclaiming_Liberalism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Oaten#Scandal_and_resignation

https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Susan_Kramer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8508098/David-Laws-broke-the-rules-and-must-pay-a-price.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Laws

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Expenses_claims

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Huhne#Criminal_conviction

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Farron

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beveridge_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Cable

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Swinson

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 13 September 2019

Well…

So there it is: Jo Swinson could never work with (be in coalition with? proffer “confidence and supply” to?) Jeremy Corbyn and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

It’s against her “principles” to support any criticism of Jews or Israel, it seems. Pity that her principles did not extend to refusing to work with evil part-Jew manipulators such as George Osborne and David Cameron-Levita. She and most of the LibDem MPs voted for all or most of the measures which for a decade have demonized, impoverished and actually killed sick, disabled and poor people in the UK via the “welfare” “reforms” of evil part-Jap Iain Dunce Duncan Smith and the Jew “lord” Freud (etc).

I was right about Jo Swinson. My instinct told me that she is an evil bitch. I was right.

https://twitter.com/misslucyp/status/1172941119287648256?s=20

Update, 17 September 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/16/lib-dems-would-need-gargantuan-swing-hit-200-seat-target/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Some LibDems are actually saying that the LDs could get hundreds of MPs in the upcoming general election! Proof positive of their disconnection from reality. People are mostly going to vote LibDem (if at all) only as a way of hitting out at the more major parties. There is no “LibDem surge” as such, but (as I have repeatedly blogged) there is a desire on the part of many Remain partisans to vote against the Conservative Party (mainly).

We have been here before, as when pathetic David Steel urged his rank and file to “prepare for government” (in 1981): http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=42

I imagine that the LibDems will pick up some seats, maybe even 50, but what will prevent Jo Swinson getting 200 or becoming PM is that no-one really wants a LibDem government (well, about a tenth of the voters might…), but many more will vote LibDem negatively, to block other parties or to signal pro-EU Remain support.

Update, 8 October 2019

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=195941

Update, 24 October 2019

https://twitter.com/jameshirst91/status/1187268475477213185?s=20

Update, 27 October 2019

Well, my prediction that the LibDems want another “Con Coalition” becomes firmer daily; the Labour reaction is scalding (or should that be “scalded?):

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1188389011917852674?s=20

https://twitter.com/MikeH_PR/status/1188347126352437248?s=20

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/27/bid-libdems-snp-december-9-election-rejected-stunt-tories-labour/

Update, 20 March 2020

Well, my analysis in the above article was right, but the basic facts changed in that Brexit Party candidates standing in Conservative Party-held seats were ordered by their duplicitous leader, Farage, to stand down. That order applied to all Conservative-held seats, even those held by the most committed pro-EU MPs!

That decision by Farage, which betrayed his own candidates and supporters, meant that dozens of pre-election Conservative Party MPs kept their seats when, had Brexit Party stood candidates, they would have lost them to the LibDems.

The LibDems were on track to win several dozen MPs until Brexit Party self-destructed.

Jo Swinson’s decision to push for a General Election, and Corbyn’s silly willingness to be shamed into going along with that, led directly to the victory of the Conservative Party at the 2019 General Election. It led directly to Boris Johnson, a part-Jew, part-Turk public entertainer, as Prime Minister. Disastrous.

My more recent pre-General Election blogging guessed the LibDem result almost exactly. I predicted that the LibDems would get fewer than 10 seats. They got 11. So nearly right, anyway.

As for Jo Swinson, her doormatting for the Jewish lobby paid off, in that she was made a fake “baroness” and elevated to the House of Lords once she lost her Commons seat.

Deadhead MPs, An Occasional Series: the Jared O’Mara Story

Jared O’Mara [Lab, Sheffield Hallam] finds his way to these pages not, as have previous MPs so honoured, merely by being stupid or ignorant (sometimes and in fact usually combined with arrogance and dishonesty) but by expressing his mental and physical afflictions through his behaviour.

I suppose that most people feel, or feel that they should feel, sorry for those born with or otherwise suffering from physical or mental disabilities. However, my view is that, notwithstanding those feelings, I do not want such people entrusted with, inter alia, flying passenger aircraft, carrying out the duties of a surgeon, or helping to rule the United Kingdom.

According to Wikipedia:

O’Mara was born in Sheffield.[1] He has cerebral palsyhemiparesis and is on the autism spectrum.[10][11] He was educated at Tapton School, in the city’s Crosspool suburb,[12] and graduated from Staffordshire University with a first class honours degree in Journalism.[13]Before entering politics, he was a local school governor and had volunteered for Sheffield-based disability information services and charities.[13]

With friends, he ran West Street Live, a bar and music venue in Sheffield.[14]

O’Mara had stood as a Labour candidate in various Sheffield council elections.[13][15][16][17]He supported Jeremy Corbyn‘s election as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015 and 2016,[18]was a Momentum supporter and was backed by them during the 2017 election.

O’Mara graduated from Staffordshire University, one of the least convincing of the new wave of “universities” in the UK. I have no idea what a degree in journalism involves or consists of, but I do know that since the proliferation of courses in that subject, thousands of semi-literates have been let loose in the msm, with the result that one now sees egregious errors in spelling and grammar everywhere, but especially in the online versions of the old print newspapers. The Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror are among the worst offenders, replete with sentences including “he was stood at the back” and “she was sat at the back of the bus”. As for real knowledge of history, geography etc, forget it.

These new “journalists” often have no idea how to report accurately, either. Often, one has to scan a newspaper report several times before locating the salient facts. That is especially true of the court reports.

Enough of my discontent. Suffice to say that Jared O’Mara graduated in journalism, with a “first-class” degree, whatever that now signifies (my opinion: not much). He did not attempt to do any actual work as a journalist, however; he started, with friends, a bar with music, in Sheffield. He was engaged in that activity, it seems, for more than a decade until the 2017 General Election. At any rate, there is no other work or activity known, except for attempts at local elections and a stint as a local school governor.

At the General Election of 2017, O’Mara, with 38.4% of the vote, unseated Nick Clegg, the then LibDem leader (and 2010-2015 Deputy Prime Minister), who received a 34.7% vote share. The Conservative came in a moderately-strong third, with 23.8%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Labour whip suspension over offensive online comments

O’Mara became a member of the Women and Equalities Select Committee in September 2017.[3] Following revelations of offensive comments he had made before becoming an MP, he resigned from the committee the following month.[34]

A series of derogatory comments about women and gay men posted by O’Mara on websites over a decade before he became an MP were revealed by the Guido Fawkes blog on 23 October 2017.[35][36] He commented about the Girls Aloud pop group: “I advise you to sack Sarah and the remaining four members (NicolaCherylNadine and Kimberley) come have an orgy with me”; and he said that the 2003 winner of Pop IdolMichelle McManus, had “only won because she was fat”.[6][35][37]

He has also been accused of making homophobic comments including referring to gay men as “poofters” and “fudge packers” and referring to jazz musician Jamie Cullum as a “conceited cunt” who should be “sodomised with his own piano”.[6][38][39] O’Mara apologised “if his comments caused offence” and resigned from the Women and Equalities Select Committee.[6][39] In a later speech, O’Mara said that the homophobic words he used were part of an Eminem record he listened to at the time.[40]

The following day, O’Mara was accused by Sophie Evans, a Sheffield bar worker whom he had met through an online dating app, on BBC Two‘s Daily Politics of having “made transphobic slurs” towards her in March 2017, and of saying in the same incident that she was an “ugly bitch”.[41][42] O’Mara denied the allegation.[43] On the same day, it also emerged that he had been posting derogatory comments about children in Sheffield and appeared to advocate corporal punishment to deal with delinquent youth.[44] Following the emergence of the comments to Evans, the Labour Party announced an investigation into O’Mara’s conduct, but stopped short of suspending him from the party.[45]

Further revelations were made public on 25 October 2017. On a Morrissey fan site in 2002, he was found to have made xenophobic insults, saying that Danes were “pig shaggers” who “practised bestiality” and referring to Spaniards as “dagos“.[46] O’Mara, when reviewing the Arctic Monkeys in November 2004, made several sexual comments including how “sexy little slags” danced to the band’s songs.[47] These revelations resulted in O’Mara being suspended from the Labour Party and therefore having the party whip withdrawn.” [Wikipedia]

Recently, it has emerged that the now “Independent” MP has completely abandoned any constituency work, does not bother to answer enquiries from his constituents, and has no staff, having sacked some, while others quit, unable to bear O’Mara and his behaviour. The most recent (and last?) staff member, the “chief of staff”, left very publicly, tweeting that O’Mara was “the most disgustingly morally bankrupt person I have ever had the displeasure of working with“, and “a selfish, degenerate prick“. The employee had only worked for O’Mara for 8 weeks! He added:

We’re left with a situation where there’s people in Sheffield Hallam who are not being represented, there are people who are waiting on their immigration status, there are people who are not getting houses, there are people having their benefits stopped and all these things stopped just because he’s not prepared to do his job properly.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/24/jared-omara-aide-uses-sheffield-mp-twitter-account-to-quit-in-angry-tirade

O’Mara is also, it seems, some kind of alcoholic, downing a bottle of vodka in the mornings (even before breakfast) on some days. It just gets better…

Below, the tweets the “chief of staff” sent out under O’Mara’s own Twitter account:

https://twitter.com/SocialM85897394/status/1153971833231818752

Despite the above, O’Mara has stated that he intends to stand again at the next general election. Some idiots have been defending him. The tweet below is typical of modern Britain, not just because the tweeter is non-white and painfully politically-correct, but because she seems to have no understanding of the fact that an MP is supposed to be there to serve his constituents, not use his status as a well-paid holiday or mental and physical therapy opportunity:

https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1153798835669352449

Pathetic. At least most people (see below) seem to understand why MPs even exist…

https://twitter.com/FeralWildCat/status/1153966211878850565

So there we have it. For me, the most important part of this story is how it has somehow come to be expected that, if an MP is disabled or mentally unwell, then the House of Commons should change to accommodate that, or if a woman has a small child, then the procedures of the Commons should be interfered with in order to make her daily life easier. Maybe mentally-ill, addicted or incapable people should simply not be MPs? Same with women MPs who have small children. They serve the country better by dealing with them, not by grandstanding in the House of Commons.

What about Sheffield Hallam, the unfortunate constituents of which now have even less help from their MP than is the norm? They must await a general election. There is no prospect of Jared O’Mara standing down, not while he can get about £80,000 a year plus expenses (London flat, utilities etc) paid.

Obviously when there is an election, O’Mara is gone, even if he makes some quixotic attempt to stand as Independent. The LibDems are probably in a good position to recapture the seat now. The Conservatives will be weakened by their national situation and by the Brexit Party (which threatens to stand in every English and maybe every UK constituency). Labour has little chance. O’Mara was the first and may be the last Labour MP elected for Sheffield Hallam (the seat was created in 1885). The Conservatives held the seat until 1997.

The present House of Commons; look upon its members, ye confounded…and despair.

Notes

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/18/jared-omara-labour-mp-sheffield-hallam-defeated-nick-clegg

Update, 25 July 2019

Statement from Jared O’Mara MP:

Statement regarding my mental health and recent events

In a few weeks, I will be making a follow-up statement regarding my position, until then I will be taking time out to receive professional help to deal with my mental health and personal issues regarding self-medication. During this time I would appreciate you could give myself and family privacy.

This is what I would like to say in the meantime:

I would like to start by apologising to my family, my friends and my constituents. I have not been honest with you about the depths of my depression and self-loathing. When I started this job in 2017 I was a different man: a confident and passionate man that wanted to help others. Sadly, I was unable to do that because very quickly I was bullied and mistreated in a harsh and unforgiving environment and that led me to be weak.

I wasn’t even meant to win the election. I stood because I wanted to give my time to support the democratic process and because I was inspired by Jeremy Corbyn and everything he had to say. Particularly about “Equality and Fairness”. I voted for him twice, was a member of his group ‘Momentum’ and practically idolised him.

But I got no support from him or the National Labour Party during the campaign. The previous Labour candidate Oliver Coppard (who I think should be the MP for Sheffield Hallam and I think is a top bloke) got funding and support nationally but I did not. The efforts of a small group of dedicated grassroots activists working to help me with the campaign I lead won that election for us. I will always be grateful to those amazing volunteers and all who voted for me. I don’t get many people backing me, helping me and supporting me in my life so it means so much when you do.

One person who constantly snubbed me and treated me less favourably than other people was Jeremy. He was the biggest shock of that election; not my victory. He has not been the man I thought he was nor that he appears to be. To the point that he and his team lied to you all last year. I was never let back in the Labour Party as they said. Nor was I ever ordered to go on training or “warned”.

They wanted me to act like I was when I was not provided with any details in writing about anything and they wanted me to act like I was guilty of those allegations from the two women from the pub when I had submitted hard evidence and witness details that showed I was not. So I had no choice but to leave the party I loved.

Within months of my appointment as MP for Sheffield Hallam the smears happened and I fell into a self-destructive nosedive. During my suspension Sam Matthews his team were consummate professionals but then Jeremy’s office took over the case and I had to get a solicitor involved because of disability discrimination in order to get it back on track.

The discrimination made things even worse. My mental health deteriorated further and I isolated myself from family, friends and constituents. My actions became erratic and my thoughts became incoherent to the point where most recently I suffered a delusional episode.

In May this year, I sent an email to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn asking them for help with getting Equality in parliament. Some MPs were parents who were not getting support and Maternity/Paternity cover and I wasn’t entitled to my rights under the Equality Act for adequate support for my disabilities and as such was not provided with the safe and necessary environment for me to speak in the chamber. This was to serve as my olive branch to Jeremy for the bullying he and his staff had put me through which caused me to leave the party in July last year.

Jeremy and his office then offered me a meeting by letter and by my parents’ observations I was visibly excited. Jeremy’s office then promised to get in touch with me and offer a selection of dates on a certain day but did not fulfil their promise, so I emailed the next day and let my disgust at their disrespect be known. Jeremy’s response was to make false reports about me being a mental health danger around parliament with a delegation of Labour safeguarding representatives and his staff. I know this because I have it in writing from the parliamentary doctor.

I was not then a mental health risk at that point but such gaslighting ultimately made me one.

About two weeks ago I told a staff member I was in love with her during the aforementioned delusional episode. I’d been paranoid for weeks that if I was mad like Jeremy and his team said I was then I’d do something like that. The messages I said that were not of a sober or rational mind and felt like an out of body experience when I sent them but I know that does not excuse my actions because I should not have been self-medicating with a drink to get into that state. It was my lowest point and I will be apologising personally to her and her family.

I want to become a better person again; like I was. I feel I’ve become unrecognisable and I want to make amends. I need treatment for my mental health and rest first though. I will make a further statement about my future in a few weeks.

Lastly, to my dear, old friend – the Noel to my Liam – Gareth: Thank you for sticking with me like I am sticking with you. How anyone put up with for this long is a mystery! That’s what mates should do. I wish you a good break, you have earned it.

I am so sorry to everybody for everything. You have put up with so much; all of you all my staff, my family, friends and constituents.

Thank you so much,

Jared O’Mara MP

https://www.jaredomara.co.uk/recentactivity/2019/7/25/statement-regarding-my-mental-health-and-recent-events

Update, 28 July 2019

Well, only a day or two after I blogged, another twist in this story: O’Mara has now indicated that he will stand down as MP for Sheffield Hallam when the Parliamentary Summer Recess is over (3 September 2019).

So I was wrong in assuming that O’Mara would cling on as MP for financial reasons. He has done the right thing, or promised to do it. Credit where due. He has made the honourable decision to fall on his sword.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/27/ex-labour-mp-jared-omara-to-resign-from-parliament

If only other MPs who have lost all legitimacy would follow O’Mara’s lead: Anna Soubry, Fathead Chuka Umunna and the other “Change UK” defectors, sex pest Israel lobbyist John Woodcock etc.

As to the by-election which will now occur in Sheffield Hallam (and which the LibDems must, even speaking so far in advance, have a good chance of winning), that will probably be held in October. I shall blog about it once the candidates are announced, which will probably not be until some time in September.

Update, 23 August 2019

Seems that my general suspicion might not have been quite so wide of the mark after all…

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/23/sheffield-mp-jared-omara-arrested-on-suspicion-of

Update, 4 September 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7424617/Controversial-MP-Jared-OMara-postpones-plan-resign-Commons.html

Now O’Mara wants to “postpone” his standing down until the next general election! He may be a “fuck-up” mentally and physically, but he is cunning about money…

So now, O’Mara is going to keep getting the pay, “expenses” (inc. free London housing or hotel costs, utilities, food, taxis etc) for further weeks or even months. He has already said that he will not be doing any further actual MP work (not that he has ever done much), so all the money he gets will have been extracted on a basis of total dishonesty (regardless of whether he is ever charged with fraud as such).

Update, 23 December 2019

Well, in the end, this particular deadhead MP did not stand at the 12 December 2019 General Election. Labour put up a new candidate, a former Sheffield councillor, Olivia Blake, and she managed to hang on to the seat for Labour (just*): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivia_Blake

* Lab majority in 2019 was 712; O’Mara’s majority in 2017 was 2,125. LibDem leader Nick Clegg’s 2015 majority was 2,353; his 2010 majority had been rather better— 15,284!

Update, 11 January 2023

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-64238809

“Former Sheffield MP Jared O’Mara has pleaded not guilty to an eighth charge of fraud ahead of his trial.

Mr O’Mara, who represented Sheffield Hallam from 2017 to 2019, is accused of submitting fraudulent invoices to Parliament’s expenses watchdog.

The 41-year-old previously denied seven counts of fraud by false representation relating to sums of £28,700 alleged to have been claimed dishonestly.

He faces trial at Leeds Cloth Hall Court this month alongside two others.

Update, 23 January 2023

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11666979/Ex-Labour-MP-Jared-OMara-41-falsely-claimed-30-000-expenses-fund-cocaine-habit.html

Update, 8 February 2023

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11727415/Ex-Labour-MP-Jared-OMara-guilty-six-counts-fraud.html

Update, 26 September 2023

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12562937/Former-Labour-MP-Jared-OMara-jailed-expenses-fraud-loses-bid-prison-sentence.html

The LibDems Elect A Leader

Introduction

I suppose that I should write a brief piece about the LibDems, now that they have elected a new leader. Somehow an underwhelming topic. First of all, the new leader.

Background

Jo Swinson MP was born in Scotland in 1980, went to a local state school and then to the LSE, graduating, it seems, aged only 20, and with a degree in management. She then worked briefly for a small enterprise in Yorkshire before becoming marketing manager with public relations duties for a local radio station in Hull, called Viking Radio.

Elected as MP in 2005 [LibDem, East Dunbartonshire], she was PPS to Nick Clegg, then a PUS, then a junior minister, all during the time of the “Con Coalition” of 2010-2015.

Jo Swinson voted for all or almost all of the Con Coalition policies, and has endorsed both zero hours contracts and “flexible working”. I am not a LibDem, but I have to say that Jo Swinson is really rather far from the LibDem traditional stance on such matters. She comes across as almost “libertarian” as far as worker rights are concerned.

The other candidate, Ed Davey, is not far from Jo Swinson, ideologically, though I should say that Davey was the more intelligent candidate of the two, so it makes sense for the LibDems to go for the less-intelligent and less-educated Jo Swinson…Davey was also the more experienced candidate, being about 15 years older and having been in Parliament for longer (since 1997, compared to Swinson’s 2005); Davey was also the only one to have served in the Cabinet.

Both Swinson and Davey lost their seats in 2015 (Davey to a Conservative, Swinson to the SNP), but were re-elected in the same constituencies in 2017. Both are “doing rather well” financially outside politics too: Davey is director or consultant to a number of companies, while Jo Swinson’s husband, Duncan Hames, an accountant (and also a LibDem MP from 2010 until 2015), now works for Transparency International, a well-funded NGO.

The LibDems’ situation and chances

2010 was surely the high point of LibDemmery. 57 MPs (out of 650) and a share in government: the Con Coalition. In 2005, under the egregious Charles Kennedy, the LibDems had won 62 seats out of 646, but were not in government.

The LibDems got 23% of the popular vote in 2010, but only about 9% of the MPs.

I believe that the LibDems could have demanded electoral reform from the Conservatives. They did not. They sold their chance for a few ministerial places, for official cars, red boxes, rank and flummery. In return they (Ed Davey and Jo Swinson among them) voted for every misconceived “Conservative” measure: the appalling regime of hounding of and cruelty to the poor disabled, sick and unemployed; the whole nonsense of “austerity”, which left the UK economy almost alone in advanced states in being mired in recession and/or low growth for years; the near-destruction of the armed services as an active and effective global force. For all that and more, for being doormats for the Conservatives, the LibDems were punished by the electorate.

In 2015, the LibDem vote slumped to 7.9% (8 MPs), then slumped again in 2017, to 7.4% (but, by the vagaries of the British electoral system, the LibDems ended up with 12 MPs).

In the 2019 UK European elections, the LibDems came second. I blogged about them then:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/29/eu-elections-2019-in-review-the-libdems/

but they failed fairly miserably at the Peterborough by-election a week or so later:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/06/07/peterborough-by-election-post-poll-analysis-and-thoughts/

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/06/08/a-few-peterborough-afterthoughts-about-the-libdems/

I do not think that I have a lot to add to what I then wrote. My view is that there is and will be no “LibDem surge”, but what there might be is a LibDem gain from the decline of both of the other main System parties, as well as an electoral benefit arising from the Brexit Party surge —if it happens— in the South of England, mainly, where the LibDems are not infrequently in 2nd or close 3rd place.

If the Conservative Party is hit badly in the South, its voters split between Con and BP, the main beneficiary is likely to be not the Brexit Party, and not Labour (in most cases) but the LibDems. In those circumstances (and “Change UK” having died shortly after birth), it is not now impossible to imagine the LibDems again having a bloc of 50 MPs, something that I admit I thought, until very recently, would be impossible. The LibDems may not deserve it, but might in any event get it. In fact, thinking of —inter alia— Boris Johnson, that might just be the epitaph of our present age.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Swinson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Davey

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_(UK)#General_elections

Update, 12 December 2022

We now know that there was the 2019 General Election only 5 months after I wrote the above assessment. At that election, my initial judgment, rather than my later speculation, was vindicated: the LibDem vote increased from 7.4% to 11.55%, but the FPTP system resulted in the LibDems losing 1 MP. That MP was Jo Swinson, who exited political life, having led her party for less than 5 months (144 days).

After the departure of Jo Swinson, Ed Davey was elected leader.

The LibDems had 12 MPs after the 2017 General Election, which reduced to 11 after the 2019 General Election. However, since then the LibDems have had three by-election successes, taking their number to 14.