Morning music
Tweets seen
No news for some time about the famous Hamas tunnels that were, apparently, in total about the same length altogether as the actually underground parts of the London Underground (over 100 miles in all). At first, the Israelis were full of public relations news/propaganda about how they had taken several miles of this or that tunnel, but since then, nothing. Are the tunnels still being used by the Gazan side of the conflict? We do not know.
If so, most of them will abandon Poland and move to other parts of the EU— Germany, Denmark etc. Only a few will make it easy for the Kiev regime to press-gang them and deploy them to the crumbling front-line. That would be a death sentence for many.
Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the war
“Lukashenko proposed to the West to play a draw with Russia, otherwise Ukraine will cease to exist.
More statements of the President of Belarus:
For Americans, China and Russia are not all opponents and enemies. For America, Europe itself, the European Union, is a serious rival. Americans do not need opponents or competitors.
I know the mood of the Ukrainian army. They are already tired of this war. If we do not negotiate now, Ukraine may lose its statehood and cease to exist.
No one wants to fight today. That is why we must move towards peace.
Washington is progressively pushing aggressive narratives against Belarus and the Russian state, increasing the degree of hostility of the NATO bloc in our direction.
The US allocation of 60 billion for the war is the most important factor in the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.”
“Biden’s team doubts US aid will help Ukraine win – Politico.
The immediate goal is to stop Ukrainian losses and help Ukraine regain momentum and turn the tide on the battlefield.” After that, the goal is to help Ukraine start getting its territory back,” said one of the officials. “Will they have what it takes to win?” Ultimately, yes. But that’s no guarantee that they will. Military operations are much more complicated than that.“
That report about American “analysis” leaves out several important factors which make any large-scale success by the forces of the Kiev regime very unlikely.
The first is the lack of “boots on the ground”, i.e. numbers of soldiers, particularly well-trained soldiers. 500,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in the past 2 years, it is said; even if that figure includes the badly-wounded, nothing material is altered.
Ukrainians of all ages and conditions are trying to avoid call-up, as the regime drafts people as old as 65, disabled people, carers for sick and disabled family members, some women etc. Those who live beyond Ukrainian borders (perhaps a quarter of the pre-war population) show no sign of wanting to return and rally to the colours; those within the borders try to buy or acquire medical exemptions, or just try to stay “under the radar”.
So overall, the lack of manpower is key. There is no way for the regime in Kiev to increase the supply of men, while the attrition of the war means that every day brings new losses; Russian forces, at present, fire 10 artillery shells for every 1 coming from the other side.
The low birth-rate in Ukraine (one of the lowest in the world) also impacts this. The Kiev-regime side looks to ever-lower age-groups, even to those aged 16, to perform military tasks.
Realistically, no matter how many advanced weapons are gifted to the Kiev regime by the USA and UK etc, Zelensky’s forces will never be able to “regain” those former Ukrainian provinces now under Russian rule: Lugansk, Donetsk, and of course the Russian peninsula of Crimea.
Even less likely is the prospect of the Kiev-regime forces actually taking over undisputably-Russian border areas, or destroying major Russian towns or cities. Should the first happen (which is not even a war aim of the Kiev-regime side), there would be a swift Russian response and re-occupation. Russia, with its famous prostor (apparently endless space) simply cannot be conquered by merely military means, as indeed Professor Haushofer taught. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Haushofer.
As to possible destruction of large Russian urban centres such as Moscow: even had the Kiev regime side the means, all that would then happen would be the deployment of Russian tactical or even strategic nuclear weapons, particularly to reduce Kiev itself. Were Kiev to be destroyed, the war would end immediately.
It can thus be seen that there are only two possible outcomes (unless is posited a general regional or even world war): either Russia achieves victory over Eastern Ukraine by force of arms, or there are real peace talks soon, leading to a result somewhere between such a victory and the present state of play.
Israel
More Israeli war crimes.
Sooner or later, whether in 5 years, 10 years or whenever, the wheel will turn, and the Israeli population will probably be scurrying through devastated streets, the streets of Tel Aviv and elsewhere. Will the Jews of Israel and beyond then themselves expect or ask for mercy?
Not as unlikely as it seems. Israel’s regional enemies become more powerful every day. Who, a decade or two decades ago, or 50 years ago, would have thought that the Palestinian resistance to the north of Israel/occupied Palestine would have the military power, or the missiles, that it has in 2024? With every passing day, the enemies of Israel acquire more powerful weapons. How long before they have weapons that can overcome the Israeli defences?
The Israeli high command (both military and security/intelligence) seems to be playing a delaying game, trying to prevent major actors from acquiring the most powerful weapons while, when possible, destabilizing surrounding (and some other) states. Iraq, Lebanon, Syria Libya, Egypt have all been weakened. Iran still stands.
There is also the fact that the Arab Palestinians within Israeli borders, and in the West Bank and Gaza, have a higher birth-rate than do most of the Israeli Jews. This will surely have an effect somewhere down the line.
Israel is doomed; the only uncertain fact is the date of that doom.
In the recent Israel-Iran exchange, it was noteworthy that planes and rockets from Saudi Arabia and Jordan flew in defence of Israel. I take that to be an Arab response to the increasing power of Iran, rather than a wish to help Israel as such.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the opposite was the case: the Shah’s government was on quite amicable terms with Israel, unlike all of the Arab states, which then were implacably opposed to Israel. The underlying hostility between the Arabs and the “Persians”, however, was just the same, in essence.
That Jewish Israeli politician seems to be the personification of utter stupidity allied to complete dishonesty. Says that executed/murdered Gazans with hands tied behind their backs may have died in “gun battles” or “throwing grenades“.
She also says that the Gazan resistance are “cowards“, because they (to use the old British phrase) “shoot and scoot” rather than waiting to be mown down by tanks etc. What, I wonder, does that creature say about Jewish (Israeli) pilots and drone operatives who kill women and children from 10,000 feet in the air, or even while sitting in a building in Israel?
It is a disgrace that the suborned UK government is giving aid and comfort (and arms) to that tribe.
Good grief! Just saw this: that creature, of Moroccan and Portuguese Sephardic-Jewish origins, was born in London, became a barrister (Middle Temple) and only moved to Israel in 2001, at the age of 27 or 28: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleur_Hassan-Nahoum.
“She has been tipped as a future mayor of Jerusalem or Israeli foreign minister” [Wikipedia].
Incredibly (listening to that interview), she is apparently regarded as “liberal” in Israel!
Talking point
Britain’s average has already been reduced several points by reason of importation of huge numbers of individuals from the lower-IQ groups over the past 70 years and particularly the past 30 years.
How can we ever create a higher-level society if the human beings in the present society are, as a group, degrading constantly (as at present)?
Late tweets
Cleverly is completely idiotic. Imagine meeting with those lying conspirators and giving (or at least pretending to give) credence to their demands, after what has been discovered in the last several days! Falter has been exposed more than once as a liar, as has the one seated to his left.
Unfortunately, Cleverly has one of the safest seats in the Commons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s. Another brainless MP.
The “Campaign Against Antisemitism” is effectively a volunteer arm of the Israeli Embassy in London.
I cannot see why the Metropolitan Police Commissioner felt obliged —apparently— to actually apologise to Falter, who by then had already been exposed, even by other Jews, even by other Zionists, as a dishonest propagandist whose account of the now-notorious Aldwych incident was plainly contrived and untrue.
Perhaps Russia should create a special class of passports for suitable candidates from certain other countries too: EU nationals, UK and US nationals, some others, and those people could then become dual-passport-holders, with the right of residence, under conditions, in the Russian Federation.
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 