“Rishi Sunak has been given a glimmer of hope as a major new poll by Lord Ashcroft suggests that more than half of voters have yet to definitively make up their minds.
With less than five weeks until the General Election, the research shared exclusively with the Daily Mail found only four in ten have ‘definitely decided’ how to vote.
But in a sign of the mountain the Tories still have to climb, the poll gives Labour a 23 point lead.
Overall, it puts Labour on a 47 per cent vote share, with the Tories on 24 per cent, and Reform UK on 11 per cent.”
Assuming honesty and relative accuracy of the poll, several points stand out for me.
Firstly, that this poll is not at all the “glimmer of hope” for Sunak and the Cons that the report accompanying it is spinning.
42% have “definitely decided” which way they are going to vote. Looking at recent polling elsewhere, that must greatly favour Labour. As for “...leaning towards a party” but “not definitely sure“, that could apply to any of the parties, but if most end up with Labour, then it is possible that Lab could end up, overall, topping 50%, leaving the Cons with a MP cadre in the single figures.
It might also mean, thinking of my previous speculation on the blog, that there are more people than polls suggest willing to vote Reform UK, if only as a protest, or as a method of giving the time-expired Conservative Party a kicking without having to vote Labour. “Secret” Reform UK voters. Do they even exist? We do not know. I think that they may exist, but in what numbers?
Anything up to 31% of eligible voters may not vote, it seems.
One big unanswered question is how many under-40s and especially under-25s will bother to vote, they being heavily pro-Labour.
On the other hand, the over-70s are the only age demographic more likely to vote Con than Lab. If significant numbers either vote Labour (unlikely) or Reform UK (much more likely) or simply abstain (not unlikely) then Sunak and the Cons really are in trouble.
Other takeaways include the fact (if it is a fact) that only 23% think that Sunak etc can do better than others at “running the economy” (Lab 37%; Don’t Know 39%, tellingly). For a Prime Minister with a banking and financial/business background, and who was, not so long ago, Chancellor of the Exchequer, that is very much a thumbs-down.
The voters’ assessments of the characters of Sunak and Starmer are not so very different.
Sunak is assessed by only 8% as being “up to the job“, while only 12% assess him as even being “competent“. That’s damning. (Starmer’s equivalent ratings were 18% and 21%, scarcely a ringing endorsement, but still far better than Sunak).
Ashford’s poll figures, fed into Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html] suggest a result of Labour MPs 513, Cons 71, LibDems 31, SNP 12, Greens 2, Plaid 3, Reform 0, Northern Irish 18.
Very very bad for the Conservative Party, but not quite existentially so..
On that basis, there would still be a considerable Con bloc of 71 MPs, and the Cons would still be the official Opposition, however ineffective.
My own feeling, whether it be right or wrong, is still that the Cons may be reduced to below 50 MPs, and that the LibDems may exceed that by default (tactical voting), thus making the LibDems the Opposition in the Commons.
If that were to occur, the defeat would be existential for the Cons. No “bright young” (mostly idiot) careerists (think Liz Truss, once upon a time…) would want to join, and big donors would not bother to pump money into funding the Cons. A “death spiral”, as people say.
Election date— Thursday 4 July 2024. Less than 5 weeks to go.
Tweets seen
National Service
Piers Morgan🗣️ What about the Nations service to our 18yr olds? What they’ve been through. A Gen that lost the best years of their lives. They can’t afford to rent. Can’t afford food. Punitive tuition fees. Probably won’t earn more than their parents… #bbcqtpic.twitter.com/7rVNq31Iod
"There is a growing sense in this country that we are approaching, if not already in, what some have called ‘civilisational moment’ –a time when "we" are starting to lose the very things that make us a "we". Farage has realised this; many other politicians have not" https://t.co/UBS5ZbQKiK
The Tories are the architects of their own demise. By unleashing unprecedented, uncontrolled mass immigration, much of it low-skill and low-wage, they lost the millions of voters they now desperately need https://t.co/9mY88fZaM7
American officials expect that the first attacks on Russian territory using American weapons could begin within a few hours or days , The New York Times (NYT) reported this, citing sources. pic.twitter.com/0Lh3fQnlg3
The American government seems to have lost, if not its mind, then any sense of perspective.
If Country A sells or, even worse, gives Country B arms and ammunition, and especially if that is with the express intent that Country B should attack the territory of Country C, then that is pretty close to being an act of war by Country A against Country C.
Stop this mad slide to a quite possible superpower nuclear war.
The size of the British Army has shrunk BELOW 73,000 for the first time, new figures released today by the MoD reveal
It is widely mooted that the combat-ready spearhead numbers no more than 30,000, if that. Maybe as low as 20,000. Plus about 5,000 Royal Marines under naval command. Plus 4,000 Gurkhas. Plus Reserves.
If UK society continues to slide, they may be used to control the situation in the “British” cities more than anything else.
More music
More tweets seen
The moment the "Burkan" missiles fired by Hezbollah exploded at the 91st Galilee Division headquarters in the Beranit barracks. pic.twitter.com/jQjpVDN7n5
— Newspaper articles collection (@NewsArticleColl) May 31, 2024
🔶 Nir Arad, analyst in Israel's Channel 12 studio: Israel is using all its military power in Gaza and is motivated by revenge and frustration in this matter. pic.twitter.com/LPayoCN5uw
All attempts to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia are futile, said Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov.
"Sabotage and the use of Western weapons against civilian infrastructure and civilians in Russia are being prepared with the participation of NATO advisers," he… pic.twitter.com/QdNvk64rbH
Eric Trump: "May 30, 2024 may be remembered as the day Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election."
— Newspaper articles collection (@NewsArticleColl) May 31, 2024
I do not have enough information to guess accurately at the likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, but peace would be better served were Trump to be re-installed at the White House, no matter what his personal deficiencies.
I publicly disagreed with the IHRA definition of antisemitism by reference to the arguments of Sir Stephen Sedley (on any view a hugely respected jurist) that it protects Israel from legitimate criticism.
That led to people publishing confidential and dangerously defamatory… https://t.co/qHJf5zO5SH
“I publicly disagreed with the IHRA definition of antisemitism by reference to the arguments of Sir Stephen Sedley (on any view a hugely respected jurist) that it protects Israel from legitimate criticism.
That led to people publishing confidential and dangerously defamatory information about me. And lots more people publishing crude and dehumanising abuse of me. And grotesque accusations of antisemitism about me. And 4 years of litigation where a total wing-nut UK Lawyer for Israel tried to bankrupt me.And a trial where witnesses made untrue or wildly exaggerated statements to try to ruin my reputation.
In the end I won, but my experience confirms Lemoine’s argument. It was awful and exhausting and no doubt intended to be so. Ending people’s careers for agreeing with Lemoine’s reasonable point of view is wrong and dangerous.”
[James Wilson]
Stephen Sedley. I remember him. I appeared in front of him as Counsel sometime around 1994 when he was a High Court judge (he was later a Lord Justice of Appeal). It was a matter involving the Angolan secret service. Sedley had had some previous experience in dealing with Angolan matters: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Sedley#Career. He gave me a very courteous hearing before politely refusing my judicial review application…
Perhaps there isn’t any such thing as the Israel lobby. Perhaps Israel is the only country on the planet without dedicated lobbyists. Perhaps organisations like We Believe in Israel, the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre, and both the Labour and Conservative… https://t.co/b1HajLptTC
“Perhaps there isn’t any such thing as the Israel lobby. Perhaps Israel is the only country on the planet without dedicated lobbyists. Perhaps organisations like We Believe in Israel, the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre, and both the Labour and Conservative Friends of Israel, simply don’t exist.
Perhaps it’s simply untrue to say that people who are critical of Israel online, or supportive of Palestine, are bombarded by hostile replies from pro-Israel accounts.
Or perhaps, there’s a concerted effort by Israel’s advocates to warp and distort the definition of antisemitism to make it impossible to describe their activities. Was Faiza Shaheen wrong to apologise? I can understand why she did it. But nobody should have to apologise for liking a plain statement of fact.“
Perhaps I imagined the evidence which clearly showed supporters of Israel working together to get information on me.
Perhaps I imagined them publishing confidential and dangerously defamatory information about me.
One of the unreliable witnesses for the losing defendants in that case was Simon Myerson, a barrister and Recorder (p/t judge). Others (all Zionist Jews) were likewise not given much if any credence by the trial judge.
If we are keeping count, I think Myerson has inferred, and then implied publicly, that both you and I were somehow responsible for Dr Newbon’s suicide.
Myerson is also a judge. Is it normal for judges to imply such things publicly? Or is it really weird behaviour?
It’s interesting isn’t it. It worries me going to some jobs and hearing “Last time I had an ambulance out, they were horrible to me”. Obviously, perceptions differ, but being understanding and showing kindness is the very least we can do.
It turns out that political prisoner Sam Melia is now being prevented from having access to his children. In fact, his wife cannot even tell him about them when she visits him. Disgraceful. These really are the tactics of a police state.
— Merv – Lord Merv of the Cinque Ports (@bearz1066) May 31, 2024
Late tweets seen
Donald Trump is already leading in the national polls. He is leading in the key battleground polls. And the latest snap poll suggests he's up among voters who've changed their minds since the trial began. I don't mind being wrong but I suspect this Democrat overreach is going to…
Israeli spy Shai Mosat named Labour’s candidate for North Durham, Luke Akehurst as Israel’s main man inside the @UKLabour Party.@lukeakehurst is also the director of @WeBelieveIsrael.
That should be Shai “Masot“, not “Mosat“, and certainly not “MOSSAD”. On the other hand…
In a further deeply concerning video, Labour's right-wing candidate for North Durham Luke Akehurst – a non-Jewish Zionist – demands senior members of the UK government get "a handle" on British UN diplomats and ensure they are only ever allowed to vote in the interests of Israel. pic.twitter.com/akY4EBF4dE
Does that Israel-puppet get fed exactly what to say by some Israeli agency? Sounds like it.
NATO weapons will be hit in any country from which Russia can be attacked — Medvedev
NATO countries that have authorized strikes with their weapons on Russian territory should be aware that their equipment and experts will be destroyed not only in Ukraine, but also in any place… pic.twitter.com/3LFr6hKsmw
— Newspaper articles collection (@NewsArticleColl) May 31, 2024
This is my appeal for help in paying the nearly £800 I have been ordered to pay by early/mid April 2024 following my recent free speech conviction (see earlier blog posts). So far, in the past few days, £160 has come in, from three generous donors who regularly read the blog.
Talking point
Interesting, but nothing would have the impact of 6 such missiles landing on Central London.
Tweets seen
Blog post from Ian Millard regarding his recent trial and sentencing under the Communications Act. Ian is another victim of modern Britain's politically-motivated prosecution and persecution system.#FreeSpeech#Nationalismhttps://t.co/Br9DeSSuKq
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 18, 2024
A girl is looking for food in the catastrophic conditions in which Muslims live in the Gaza Strip. pic.twitter.com/jlfEhJ34Nc
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 18, 2024
Erdogan congratulated Putin by phone on his convincing victory in the elections and wished him new successes in government activities for the benefit of the people of Russia , reports the Kremlin.
▪️He said that Turkey is ready to play any facilitating role in returning to the… pic.twitter.com/rTup1kz1wZ
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 18, 2024
According to Israeli media, Israelis are rushing to purchase power generators, fearing that they will be turned off in the event of a large-scale war with Lebanon.
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 18, 2024
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 18, 2024
Good grief.
Many attempts have been made to conquer that region: Alexandrine Greeks under Alexander the Great (4th Century B.C.), the troops of the British Empire (19thC A.D.), the armies of the Soviet Union (1980s), and the armies of the Western alliance (2001-2021). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan#History.
According to my use of Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html], that works out as leaving the Con Party with about 42 MPs (Labour 518; LibDems 49; SNP 18; Plaid Cymru 3; Greens 2; Northern Irish seats 18).
Were that to happen, the LibDems would be the official Opposition, and the UK would be under what is already looking like being a Labour Party “elected dictatorship” for 5 years at least.
Little hope for our natural world with mass immigration and huge population growth on a fairly small land mass like Great Britain. Your ilk are nature's enemies.
— Anglo Appreciator 🏴 (@LancsDreamer) March 18, 2024
[Laura Towler and her husband, Sam Melia, who is presently and unjustly in prison; a political prisoner of the NWO/ZOG state]
Sven Longshanks (James Allchurch) also has a crowdfunder to help him in prison, and to get him back on his feet once released (likely to be any time after May 2024, and in any event by August of this year). https://www.givesendgo.com/SupportSven. Even small amounts help (the minimum donation is a mere £4).
My own crowdfunder (to help me pay the financial impost imposed upon me by the Court at my sentencing hearing last Thursday) can be found here: https://www.givesendgo.com/GC14J.
In my pre-polling day look at the by-election, I picked Galloway (“Workers Party”) as the winner; not very difficult under the circumstances— most journalists also thought that Galloway would win, as did the bookmakers.
Galloway scored 39.7%; oddly enough, exactly the same figure as the understandably poor turnout, which was also 39.7%. In other words, Galloway was elected via the votes of about 15% of the whole eligible electorate.
I went wrong on second place. I thought that Azhar Ali, the disowned Labour candidate, would still manage a second place on the basis that he is local, a councillor, a Pakistani Muslim and, until Jewish-lobby puppet Keir Starmer sacked him, the official candidate of the Labour Party.
In fact, Ali scored only 7.7% and a 4th place. I attribute that largely to his sacking, which means that he will not be the Labour candidate in the upcoming 2024 General Election. Also, to the fact that he climbed down and “apologised” to Starmer and the Israel lobby. In a word, he lost face, badly, by doing that. I presume that his 7.7% reflects a personal vote, mainly.
I also thought, though speculatively, that the LibDems might do rather better than they did, based on their previous (though pre-2015) showings in the constituency, and on their perhaps being a magnet for anti-Government white (English) votes in Rochdale. Not so. Seems that the LibDems are very much a spent force outside a few parts of southern England.
The LibDem vote was only 7%.
The poor turnout sank the LibDem cause in Rochdale. It is pretty clear that the Pakistanis voted but the English/white voters mostly did not. The Pakistani population of the constituency is somewhere in the 30%-40% range. Almost all Pakistanis voted (it can be surmised), but few English/white people bothered.
The Conservative Party candidate never had a chance. This government is as unpopular as any has been in the past century or more, and Rochdale has not elected a Conservative since 1955.
Having said that, the attitude of the candidate cannot have helped. He decided to prioritize his holiday over campaigning, jetting off to the sun only a week or so before Polling Day!
Ellison’s 12% vote (3rd place) is around where my initial thought about the by-election, a couple of weeks ago, put him (I thought maybe 15%), but better than my most recent speculation (a day or two ago, I thought the Con vote might go as low as 5%).
Finally (leaving aside the five candidates who lost their deposit, none scoring higher than 1.7%), there is Reform UK. Oh dear…
As I wrote before the by-election, Reform UK must have been mad to take on Danczuk as its candidate. After all, he was the local Labour MP 2010-2017, who was sacked for various personal behavioural problems, and who then tried to hang on as an Independent, getting an embarrassing 1.8% vote at the 2017 General Election.
The toxic tabloid content of Danczuk’s life 2010-2017 with and around his seriously thick then wife, Karen Danczuk (known as “the selfie queen” for her self-portraits posted online, featuring both her cleavage and her buck teeth), sank him in 2017, and will still be (and obviously was) remembered by the voters of Rochdale.
Danczuk’s 6.3% vote at the by-election is about where I thought he would end up.
In my view, Reform UK has rather too much of the “Mickey Mouse” about it, too much of the “wing and a prayer” “Amateur Night” village show, to be considered a serious party.
The political scientist Matt Goodwin has been pushing the idea that Reform UK might overtake the Conservative Party in the polls. Not yet, it seems.
At Rochdale, the Conservative Party candidate managed to get twice the vote of Danczuk and Reform UK, despite not bothering to campaign much, whereas Danczuk tried hard, and was even supported by his leader, Richard Tice, riding a sky-blue battlebus.
The by-election does say something about Reform UK that goes beyond its very silly decision to put up Danczuk as a candidate. If Reform UK was going to capture the mainly white/English protest vote, this by-election would have been the place for that to take off. White English people are a majority, maybe even two-thirds, of the Rochdale constituency, yet most —probably the vast majority— did not bother to vote, and even fewer voted Reform UK.
Some may say that the above is because English people are apathetic. I say that they are apathetic for a reason, or reasons. One, in this case, was because Reform UK’s semi-“libertarian” offering just does not “hit the spot”. White English people want, though in most cases unconsciously, social nationalism, and there is not one party, even a small one, offering or proclaiming that ideology.
What does the by-election say about the Conservative Party in the run-up to GE 2024? Toast. This was the worst Con Party result (12%) at Rochdale since the Blair-Labour years (10.5% in 2005, 13.4% in 2001, 8.8% in 1997). In 2019, the Cons received 31.2%, and even in 2017 28.4%.
So there it is. Angry apathy from the white English voters, angry protest from the Pakistani Muslims, a Government without hope, but an Opposition Labour Party unable to inspire any enthusiasm yet likely to “win” GE 2024 purely by default. Also, an upstart and supposedly “populist” party, Reform UK, that has no real support.
I have said nothing about the victor, Galloway. That is because he is a maverick and, despite the “Workers Party” label, basically a one-man band. Whether he can retain his seat at GE 2024 or not is an open question. Maybe he can.
And Tim Stanley, if you said something similar about Judaism, you’d be called an antisemite…. In fact, you wouldn’t be able to say anything, because you’d get arrested and cancelled. So, what’s your point?#bbcqt#TimStanley
95% of the repression on freedom of expression in the UK comes from the organized Jew-Zionist/pro-Israel lobby. I myself face sentencing in a couple of weeks, the malicious Jew-Zionist lobby having procured an entirely political prosecution of me in 2023 (and admit to having been trying to bag me for most of the past decade).
Israeli ‘massacre’ of Palestinian aid seekers in Gaza condemned globally https://t.co/iUH81xPZir
Galloway must be one of the few, one of the very few MPs who can speak in public without either reading pathetic platitudes from a written crib, or sounding like a speak-your-weight machine, or both.
The symptoms of the slowly-encroaching “woke” global (Western) police state (in the UK, in the EU, elsewhere too) are now seen everywhere; they include my own Jewish-lobby-procured political prosecution and conviction last year (sentencing hearing this month).
When you look at why Simon Danczuk fell from grace, running on a grooming platform was not the best idea. It says everything about Tice's judgement. Especially when, standing as an independent in 2017, Danczuk won a mere 883 votes. He was a lame duck out of the starting gate. (do…
I agree with that. I have no idea what Tice is like as a businessman, though I note that his main work was in a company founded by his grandfather. As a politician, I have no doubt that he is “nbg” (no bloody good). As I blogged some time before the by-election, Tice’s selection of someone as sleazy as Simon Danczuk was a miscall of stunning proportions. As in…you run a “populist”, “new broom”, “clean the Augean Stables” party, so naturally you pick as your candidate someone who was not only sleazy in the sexual sense when an MP but also a grifting freeloader and moneygrubber. An example of the worst of the old parties. No, wait…
How does that work? It doesn’t.
If Tice’s judgment is in question for having, inter alia, picked Danczuk as a candidate, then that, and the by-election result, also brings into question the judgment of political academic, scribbler and blogger Matt Goodwin, who has been boosting Reform UK as a possibly-unstoppable coming political force in the land. Ha…
"Britain issued 81,203 family visas last year —up 72% on 2022 and the highest figure on record. The sharpest increase of all was for family members from Pakistan (+70%), India (+57%) & Bangladesh (+68%)"https://t.co/DhsCdicgpI
Unconfirmed reports are saying that Sam Melia of Patriotic Alternative has been sentenced in the Crown Court to 2 years in prison for supposed “incitement to racial hatred”.
I did not follow the trial, but I understand that the charge or charges related to the production of (from the little I have read) very innocuously-worded stickers. “Evidence” deemed admissible (presumably going to the Defendant’s intention) included having a picture of Hitler.
The Star Chamber would be proud of England’s 21st Century police, CPS, and judiciary.
As we know, in 2024 Britain, political crime is deemed far more serious than real crime. In a country where crimes of serious violence, or considerable and dishonest acquisition, result often in non-custodial sentences, Sam Melia will now spend about a year in prison basically for having offended or opposed the System and “the usual suspects”.
I have no idea as to whether the plight of his wife, Laura Towler, and their very young child, was taken into account. Seemingly not, or not much. I understand that Laura Towler is presently pregnant with a second child, which will now be born (in the next couple of months) while its father is incarcerated.
I hope that a crowdfunder is soon set up for Melia’s wife and children.
“A huge crowd”? At a guess, 5,000. Maybe, at peak, 10,000.
Russia has ~143M people, so even 10,000 represents only 1 person in every 14,300. Out of the Moscow population of 13M, 1 person out of every 1,300. Somewhere between those two figures, then. 1 person out of every 1,300-14,300 people.
Of course, the authorities have tried to suppress visible support for Navalny, but even if the true figure is 1 out of every 1,300, and even if there are 20 secret supporters for every one on that march, that is still only, at best, 1 out of every 65 inhabitants of Moscow.
Whatever one’s view of Navalny, his percentage of even mild support was in single figures. Maybe 2%, maybe as high as 5%, of the Moscow population; probably no more than 1%, if that, among the whole population of Russia.
Thousands of supporters of #Navalny gathered for his memorial service and funeral in #Moscow despite #Kremlin warnings and a heavy police presence.
The presidential administration has ordered the media not to cover funeral of Navalny. The ban on news about the funeral came to… pic.twitter.com/UbtUDvGVUI
That film shows a seemingly larger crowd, but even if my calculations are out by a factor of 10, that would still show a visible and covert ratio of 1 Navalny supporter out of every 6 or 7 people. Significant but not overwhelming.
Anyway, such speculation is a castle in the air in the circumstances.
Tim Stanley did 2 degrees and a PhD at Cambridge all paid for by the tax payer. When it comes to him paying back he is having none of it… pic.twitter.com/L8pAwjuiJU
I've been calling for a Militant Democracy strategy in Britain since the 6/1 insurrection: I hope @RishiSunak is listening… end the divisive rhetoric, defend the institutions which are coming under massive hybrid attack: democracies have no duty to facilitate their enemies… pic.twitter.com/zmoudIrFlq
Mason again. His “political philosophy” comes down to two words: “arrest them“. Nothing more. Neither a socialist nor a pro-capitalist, nor yet anything other than someone cobbling together disparate strands to make one jumbled string of pseudo-philosophy which really comes down to the exercise of State power by those who control it, and against any dissidents or dissenters.
I'm not normally that interested in parliamentary politics. More interesting to see what everyone else in the country is thinking and doing.
But I will make an exception. It's good to see George Galloway is an MP while Paul Mason isn't. Mason's piss is boiling nicely. https://t.co/NC8j1otTRH
Mason’s sheer bile is obvious to almost everyone but Mason himself. Mason’s ideal living environment would be somewhere such as the DDR, circa 1970. Maybe as a Stasi-connected academic in a concrete provincial university.
“Left”/”Right” are terms I never myself use. Not helpful or meaningful. Look at Mason, though, playing the role of “licensed revolutionary”. The police seem uninterested in talking to him about any inflammatory outbursts…
Your hear that Galloway voters? Paul Mason says you’re ‘racists’ and ‘misfits’.
If people who endorse Labour think this little of voters, then they deserve to lose, badly. The sense of entitlement Starmerites have is mind-blowing. The tantrums they’re having today are hilarious. https://t.co/sl7fhI0zUa
— 🕊️🍉 A Rey of Light 🇵🇸🇪🇸 (@areyoflight) March 1, 2024
Mason’s MI5 “PF” (Personal File) would be a fascinating read…I would love to see my own, incidentally. I suppose it might make my ears burn…
Britain needs social nationalism. No matter the intervening repressions (as seen only today and previously in the Sam Melia show trial), events are “conspiring” or converging to create, down the line…Victory.
I love my country.
I’m ashamed of my government and my Prime Minister.
He has turned the beautiful country I love into the country that I escaped from.
The country that took me in, now looks & feels like the country that would persecute me for wrong-think. pic.twitter.com/NX3PARKRre
Caroline Lucas, "Antisemitism case have risen six fold, Islamophobia has risen three fold, language has consequence"
"We need to call out this unelected Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, who is leading one of the most unpopular governments in all time. And he is deliberately and… pic.twitter.com/TnFqNHrU08
Peter Oborne mentions almost every group but the Jewish lobby; not even “Zionists”; only “Israel”. I can only imagine (joking slightly) that he is afraid of being blackballed by one of his clubs (the Garrick? I am only guessing).
Slightly disappointing by Oborne, who has in the past made interesting anti-Israel lobby documentaries: see
What (((group))) is behind Starmer? What group is behind Sunak? What group is behind “Reform UK”, Farage, Tice etc? Yes, the Israel lobby, but of what (in the UK) is that composed?…
In some ways, Oborne’s 15-minute tweet above is very hardhitting, but it pulls a few punches when it comes to “a certain group” in UK society.
Oborne refers to the danger of the “far right” etc. In fact, any danger is actually from the two superficially opposed groups— Islamists/Zionists.
Announcement from Laura Towler
I happened to see the message below, believed to be a public announcement from Laura Towler of Patriotic Alternative:
“By now you will have heard that my husband Sam Melia was sentenced today to two years in prison for his intentions behind publishing stickers that the prosecution said were both lawful and truthful.
The sentencing guidelines gave the judge the option of choosing anywhere between 2 years and 6 years, and the minimum was given due to the lack of seriousness regarding the offence. The judge could’ve suspended the sentence (and sent Sam home) at two years, however he chose not to and said the reason why was because he wanted the sentencing to act as a deterrent to other people with the same beliefs.
Before today, Sam met with his Probation Officer who said that Sam was no risk to the public and there was no chance of reoffending, and recommended a community order. The judge chose to ignore this.
The worst case scenario is that Sam will serve 12 months in prison. Potentially, he could serve 6 – 8 months. He is considered low risk and could therefore be on day release from as early as in a few months.
If you take anything from this, let it remind you why we do what we do. We live in a country where our people are attacked by the anti-White state for advocating for their own safety and interests.
I don’t want cuddles and condolences. I don’t want thoughts and prayers. I want you to join me in filling the void that Sam leaves for the next few months. There are no excuses. Not everybody has to be on the front line. There is plenty you can do behind the scenes.
Sam should hold his head up high knowing that he put his head above the parapet when many others dare not. He didn’t back down at any point over the last three years, nor did he take any offer they offered him. He remained defiant for us, and now it’s our turn to repay his sacrifice by carrying his flame until he is back.“
[unconfirmed, but believed to be by Laura Towler]
Another example of how the British jury is now little better than a rubber stamp. As for the judge in question, I prefer not to comment, mainly because I have no wish to transgress the “contempt of Court” rules; in any case, I did not follow the case. There is also the further fact that I myself, in Biblical language, will be “in the same condemnation” in a couple of weeks, being sentenced for —in effect— telling the truth.
“Rishi Sunak has claimed extremist groups in the UK are “trying to tear us apart”, in a hastily arranged Downing Street statement that came hours after George Galloway won a byelection in Rochdale.
Standing outside No 10 late on Friday, the prime minister condemned what he called “a shocking increase in extremist disruption and criminality” after the 7 October massacre by Hamas and the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
He also claimed democracy itself was a target, as he condemned the election of Galloway, who easily won the seat in Rochdale on a platform that focused on anti-Israel sentiment over Gaza.
However, in a sometimes rambling and seemingly contradictory 10-minute address, Sunak made points likely to anger MPs on the right of the Conservative party such as Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, who have sought to frame recent tensions as almost entirely the responsibility of Islamist extremists.
Sunak was at pains to stress the recent abuse of Muslim Britons as well as the Jewish community, and to highlight the threat from far-right groups as well as Islamists.“
[The Guardian]
The little Indian money-juggler presently posing as Prime Minister has made a speech in which he conflated “democracy” with “electing System candidates”, in effect.
Sunak calls for no support for “extremism”, yet he does not seem to think it “extreme” to project the Israeli flag onto 10 Downing Street and then to call for support of a war by a huge mechanized army against, mostly, civilians, half of which are under 18 years of age, and about a quarter of whom are undisputedly small children and babies.
So far, the Israeli Jews have killed about 30,000 or so in Gaza, in under 5 months. About half were children.
Starmer, that nasty ideas-free puppet bureaucrat, is no better.
Incidentally, I myself have blogged about both “democracy” and “extremism” in recent years:
In response to the supply of Taurus missiles to Kiev, Moscow could consider the possibility of a Dagger attack on the factory of these missiles in Germany, said expert Igor Korotchenko.
Germany does not officially want to send its troops to Ukraine, but the German army is…
“In response to the supply of Taurus missiles to Kiev, Moscow could consider the possibility of a Dagger attack on the factory of these missiles in Germany, said expert Igor Korotchenko.
Germany does not officially want to send its troops to Ukraine, but the German army is already present there as advisers and technical experts, noted expert Vladimir Evseyev. The situation is heating up after such statements. Especially after the first, the second is a statement of fact….”
[Marshal Zhukov inspects the ruins of the Reichstag, Berlin, 1945]
Founder of "Blackwater" – We can't beat the Russian bear
"Ukraine needs peace, otherwise it will destroy itself," said the founder of the private military company "Blackwater" Eric Prince in a podcast with Patrick Bet-David.
Founder of “Blackwater” – We can’t beat the Russian bear.
“Ukraine needs peace, otherwise it will destroy itself,” said the founder of the private military company “Blackwater” Eric Prince in a podcast with Patrick Bet-David.
He also drew attention to the poor state of the Western armies and stressed that American citizens are not obliged to provide hundreds of billions of dollars to a corrupt state, such as Ukraine.“
I’d love to hear what ‘journalist’ Sam Coates can hear through his master’s earpiece 🤔
He’s a puppet and We see its strings 😂
George, on the other hand, speaks with honesty, integrity, experience and for the Many 👍
Sam Coates parroting rubbish, much of it “antisemitism,antisemitism“. Idiots like Coates get paid half a million or more per year. Sick society; almost a (bad) joke society.
Is Sam Coates part-(((you know who)))? I wonder…
Coates was easily put in his place by Galloway. Not worth his salt.
“Three in ten troops from across the Armed Forces are not fully fit for combat, official figures have revealed.“
[Daily Mail]
The MOD still claims that up to 50,000 Army people are fit for actual combat. Others say that 30,000 is a more realistic figure; some say as few as 20,000. Are they seriously suggesting taking on Russia, China and others simultaneously with that puny and probably ineffective force?
“A former leader of the Shin Bet domestic security force has said Israel will not have security until Palestinians have their own state, and Israeli authorities should release Marwan Barghouti, jailed leader of the second intifada, to direct negotiations to create one.
Ami Ayalon, a retired admiral who also commanded Israel’s navy and was wounded in battle and decorated for his service, also said destroying Hamas was not a realistic military goal, and the current operation in Gaza risked entrenching support for the group.
He came relatively late to his current views, after leaving the military where the enemy is just a target to be killed, he said. His position at Shin Bet required him to regularly meet Palestinians, including visiting PLO leader Yasser Arafat.
He made Palestinian friends, among them PA security chief Jibril Rajoub and Sari Nusseibeh, a philosophy professor from Jerusalem who can trace his family’s presence there back to the 7th century. “So can I tell him, OK, this land is mine and you are a visitor here? It is nonsense.”
[Guardian]
Interesting but, as the report says, he is in a minority. As for the historical, and nuanced social, views, he may think like that, but he would be wasting his time trying to make some ignorant American-Jew settler from the slums of Brooklyn, who got off the boat yesterday, understand.
“World’s five richest men double their money as poorest get poorer.
Oxfam predicts first trillionaire within a decade, with gap between rich and poor likely to increase.
The world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes to $869bn (£681.5bn) since 2020, while the world’s poorest 60% – almost 5 billion people – have lost money.”
[Guardian]
It may be that, in a century or so, historians will look back on the early 21st Century and say “that was the time just before the last great wave of revolution and war, when everything changed forever“…
Tweets seen
This is a lie. I have never been investigated by the police for anything, yet alone 'racist hate crime'. I will be taking legal action if this lie is not retracted.
The Lib Dems are trying to silence me – it's no wonder sub-postmasters couldn't get justice from Ed. https://t.co/oOYwwoC4Ze
As previously noted on the blog from time to time, the LibDems are a total waste of space.
Russian RIA Novosti Agency:
Russia has become the largest exporter of uranium fuel to the United States, with the Americans paying $96 million to Russia in just several months. pic.twitter.com/AT6vCVqlDs
AfD is of course not social-national, but its existence and growing strength moves the “Overton Window”, just as (to some extent) does Reform UK in Britain, despite RF being also “controlled opposition”. These matters are not straightforward.
Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Andrzej Scheina said that the Poles need to be prepared for the front in Ukraine to shift to the west and for an even greater influx of Ukrainian refugees.
Eventually, Russia will rule all Ukraine to the east of the Dnieper, and that is how it should be.
According to an ABC News poll, only 28% of US citizens believe that Biden is still sane enough to be re-elected president for a second term, and 69% believe that his grandfather is no longer sane.
Trump should “double and triple the guard”…the Deep State may try to kill him.
Same story in UK. Wrote a counter cultural book (Values, Voice, Virtue) which was No.2 national bestseller. How many literary festival invites? Zero. I genuinely don't mind missing a weekend in Chipping Norton but it does tell you something about how insular the publishing world… https://t.co/OqaXJhNweW
The above idiot-tweeter either has not considered the fact that literally hundreds of millions might have (under the present outdated rules) a “well-founded” or “valid” claim to remain in the UK once here… or does not care.
Not hyperbole. Fact. Hundreds of millions. All they have to do is set foot on UK shores.
Surely even tweeters such as the above (who probably thinks himself very clever) might think twice once a hundred million, or more, invade the UK? Or maybe such bien-pensants prefer not to think what kind of UK is already being created by migration-invasion? Or are such people out-and-out traitors, doing —or wanting to have done— more damage than old-style terrorists or spies could ever do?
Incidentally, and ironically, the above-noted tweeter reposted the tweet below, but seems unable to connect the housing crisis with the mass immigration of the past 20+ years. Not the only factor, I concede, but probably the main one.
NEW: we don’t reflect enough on how severe the housing crisis is, and how it has completely broken the promise society made to young adults.
The situation is especially severe in the UK, where the last time house prices were this unaffordable was in … 1876. pic.twitter.com/M6WbXKE1SL
[washed-up political loony Sajid Javid was another one unable to join the dots…]
The israelis aren’t just mass murdering an entire population, they are committing genocide with intent, enjoyment, glee & pride @palinfoenpic.twitter.com/Brx7cxaEfq
Satirical singer-songwriter Alison Chabloz tried to make some of those points in a humorous manner (mostly via songs and cartoons) on Twitter several years ago, but “the usual suspects” managed to have her prosecuted and actually convicted for doing so. Just as “Brexit” is more than Brexit, so “Israel” is more than Israel…
Man behaving Dadly has done a runner 😂 oh the irony of the melt!!! Bet your kids are well proud of you Harris??? pic.twitter.com/SRx8rfhG6m
— Paul Harding 🏴 Enough Is Enough (@Paul_Patriot12) January 11, 2024
The latest “grifter” to have been exposed more widely (he has been mentioned occasionally over the last few years on this blog— “read it here first”…). He thus joins other frauds and thieves such as “Jack Monroe” (Melissa Hadjicostas), “Supertanskiii” (surely the least interesting of the lot, socio-politically— entirely derivative and unoriginal), and others who have found a happy hunting ground or grift-mine on Twitter/X and other online sites.
Don’t you remember? He was as cringe as that Russ in Cheshire. Always fundraising and went by the name as man behaving dadly. Cringe account that’s now been outted as a grifter too.
I had forgotten about “Russ in Cheshire” (who seems in fact to be yet another one actually in or from Essex, unless I am mistaken). Russ-in-Cheshire is on a similar page to the others, but poses mainly as social or political commentator on the fringe of humour, and has written a book about politics or society. He even appeared on at least one TV quiz show (The Chase? Not sure; maybe it was Eggheads, now that I think about it). I think that his team even won some money.
The key to successful UK online “grifting” seems to be to avoid simply begging for money. The more cunning “grifter” pretends to be a kind of charity worker or philanthropic type, raising money for others and giving —what at least is presented as— good advice.
Thus “Bootstrap Cook” and her dog’s dinner “recipes”, “Man Behaving Dadly” and his charity stuff (with rather a lot of the proceeds shaven off for his own shekel-store) and so on. Not forgetting Julia Grace Patterson, with her “NHS champion” grifting, while taking in donations and selling facemasks etc. In her case, the USP is that she is actually a medical doctor (though she only worked as such for a couple of years).
I presume that that other prominent “grifter”, “Supertanskiii”, lacks the ability to produce any tangible output or activity, so restricts herself to swearing at “the Tories”. Amazingly, some people are satisfied with that alone, and are willing to send her money just for that! Utter mugs.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to: Con 69 (-100 on MRP) Lab 463 (+78) LD 70 (+22) Nat 28 Grn 1
I predict that tactical voting will play a big part in the 2024 General Election. What will weaken it, though, is that it is clear to more and more people that none of those Lib-Lab-Con System parties is worth a plugged nickel.
Also, there are those who will always vote for one System party rather than another, even when, in that particular constituency, the loyal voter’s own party has never come first, or even second.
Still, I think that, now that even former Conservative Party voters want rid of the Con Party in government, tactical voting for the least-objectionable alternative will be widespread.
That may mean, as the tweet implies, that the utterly unmeritorious LibDems may be able to gather in a pretty considerable number of MPs. I was thinking 30, maybe at peak 45, but the tweet above says 70 (they have 15 at present). If so, remarkable, looking at the untrustworthy rabble that the LibDems are.
You are going to be in for a very big surprise when Labour hardly shifts from the current policies being undertaken.
Again, quite so. The faces will change but not (much) the policies. Like Soviet chocolate boxes (the chocolates in the box usually having had a range of shapes, but the filling identical in all of them).
Her name for this country is right…and becomes more accurate with every passing day.
Late tweets seen
Yet another report (-> https://t.co/TKux7xkKK4) finds hundreds of mainly white working-class girls were sexually abused by mainly Muslim men while police + authorities did next to nothing. I've summarised evidence from all reports here:https://t.co/2XFSjqnEnW
A “democracy” in which the population is so badly-informed becomes merely a volatile mess and, in the end, a dictatorship. Oh, wait…
In fact, the level of immigration is even higher than Goodwin says, because those leaving the UK are mainly white (i.e. real) British people desperately seeking a haven in, usually, what used to be the White Dominions: Australia, New Zealand, Canada.
'The largest number of them have not gone to Labour or Reform, they've gone into apathy.'@GoodwinMJ says the Government needs to return to core Conservative values to win back 2019 Boris Johnson voters.
What many many people want, often unconsciously, is social-nationalism, but even if aware of their true wish, they are usually too embarrassed to say so.
A North Korean copy of the US RK-4 Global Hawk drone. The Americans suspect that the Koreans were able to assemble their copy using technical information from the Iranians, who gained access to the wreckage of the Global Hawk they shot down. pic.twitter.com/htI4gDs1tf
Currently, the following targets are known to have been hit by IRGC missiles:
— American base at Erbil airport; — US Consulate in Erbil; — Local headquarters of the Kurdish security service; — Private residence of a local businessman associated with the Mossad pic.twitter.com/CBYJTH5dkm
A Jew who stalked me online for years lives in that place. One can but hope…
Iranian intelligence sources: The Revolutionary Guard targeted a fortified room belonging to the Israeli "Mossad" in Erbil with Fateh-110 missiles. pic.twitter.com/E4mroeuqau
“A senior Conservative MP launched a scathing attack on a controversial bill banning local councils from boycotting Israel, as eight Tories voted against the proposed legislation.
Alicia Kearns, the Conservative chair of the foreign affairs select committee, told the Guardian that the bill undermined free speech, went against international law and risked leaving the UK isolated on the global stage.
While the bill passed by 282 votes to 235, eight Conservative MPs voted against the legislation, which will cause some embarrassment to its chief supporter, Michael Gove.“
[Guardian]
The 282 MPs who have voted for that bill are Israel-lobby and Jewish-lobby puppets.
“The UK has some of the worst cancer survival rates in the developed world, according to new research.
Analysis of international data by the Less Survivable Cancers Taskforce found that five-year survival rates for lung, liver, brain, oesophageal, pancreatic and stomach cancers in the UK are worse than in most comparable countries. On average, just 16% of UK patients live for five years with these cancers.
Out of 33 countries of comparable wealth and income levels, the UK ranks as low as 28th for five-year survival of both stomach and lung cancer, 26th for pancreatic cancer, 25th for brain cancer and 21st and 16th for liver and oesophageal cancers respectively.
The six cancers account for nearly half of all common cancer deaths in the UK and more than 90,000 people are diagnosed with one of them in Britain every year.“
Starmer on Israels actions: "I think its unwise for politicians.. to sit in TV studios & pronounce which acts may or not be in accordance with international law"
Starmer sitting in a TV studio, on Russias actions: "What I've seen amounts to war crimes"pic.twitter.com/Dke117LW6E
Starmer is a weasel, an Israel-lobby puppet, a Jewish-lobby puppet, and nothing more, but the most important thing is to completely wipe out, if possible, the equally-“occupied” “Conservative” Party. It would be disastrous if more than about a hundred Con Party MPs were to survive the 2024 General Election. That would tend to validate the rigged pseudo-democratic System.
Every time Starmer opens his mouth, he reveals just how unfitted he is for the role of Prime Minister. Something that he has in common with the little Indian money-juggler, Sunak.
NEW POST. How the Tory vote imploded. A deep dive into the collapse of British conservatism.https://t.co/Nmq6s1NEr1
They would also suffer the humiliation of having to watch every single seat in the Red Wall return to Labour, symbolising how the Tories failed to lean into the post-Brexit realignment of British politics.
I am thinking maybe a loss of around 250-300 seats, leaving the Con Party as a (50-100 MP) rump party, on a similar though higher level to the LibDems (now with 15 MPs but maybe with 30 or more after the GE, thanks purely to a projected or possible collapse of the Con Party vote in the South of England as well as elsewhere).
Of course, the LibDems are a bad joke, but then look at the Con Party over the last 14 years or more…indeed, look at the “leaders” alone: David Cameron-Levita, Theresa May, “Boris” Johnson, Liz Truss, and now the Indian money-juggler, Sunak.
The worst allegation yet for Ed Davey – betraying a postmaster in his own community. ⬇️ https://t.co/WvP10bx0qD
The world is starting to wake up to the rigged elections
The world is starting to wake up to the truth about Israel
The world is starting to wake up to the truth about Epstein and his associates
We have a LONG way to go, but we are making progress.
Keep spreading truth.
— David Morgan 🏴 #StayFree (@david_r_morgan) January 6, 2024
In my four years of adult life, I’ve watched as uncontrolled immigration has changed the face of my community.
My town used to be thriving with local businesses, now it’s a hotspot of Turkish barbers, illegal vape shops and money laundering operations.
This country is finished.
— David Morgan 🏴 #StayFree (@david_r_morgan) January 1, 2024
I should like to be able to dissent from that last sentence but really, and in all honesty, do not think that I can, unless some almost miraculous event, or series of events, so far unforeseen, can be a “pattern interrupt” on a grand scale.
"Most of the people who have abandoned the Tories have not gone to Labour or Reform. Instead, they now say they will not vote at all, do not know who to vote for, or simply refuse to answer the question"https://t.co/FtbF7OS2JQ
My view too. There is a largely unspoken (to some degree unconscious) wish for real social nationalism, but there is no effective social-national party now active, partly because (((the usual suspects))) have squashed every attempt to get one into the air over the past half century or more.
The Georgia Guidestones, a granite monument located in Elbert County, Georgia, USA, provides instructions in eight languages on how to rebuild society after an unknown post-apocalyptic event. The monument, often referred to as the American Stonehenge, was erected in 1980 and… pic.twitter.com/MhiS1sidc1
LibDems are just wastes of space. There may be exceptions, but I have not seen any. Ed Davey is only marginally better than was Jo Swinson, and she was rock-bottom in every respect.
Even the old Liberal Party was mostly ludicrous in the post-WW1 (let alone post-WW2) era, though Jo Grimond was an exception: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Grimond.
As to the LibDem chances in the upcoming 2024 General Election, I may be wrong but think them overestimated by commentators. Admittedly, many voters who despise the present Government and who see nothing in Starmer-Labour for which to vote may be looking for a protest vote, and some (those who do not favour Reform UK, the Green Party, or simple abstention may choose the LibDems, but I think not very many.
There are presently-Con seats where Labour has no chance, but where the LibDems often roll in second. Those seats may go LibDem, especially if Labour voters vote tactically. I cannot see the LibDems getting more than 10% overall (2019— 11.6%).
In both 2017 and 2015, the LibDems got below 8% after the years of Con Coalition. There is no possibility for the LibDems to revisit the 23% they achieved in 2010. “You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but not all of the people all of the time” [Abraham Lincoln].
However, what matters in UK Parliamentary politics is not the overall percentage, but the percentage concentrated in particular seats, which is why, in 2015, UKIP received 12.6% of the vote but only the one seat it already had, whereas the LibDems received a mere 7.9%, yet retained 8 MPs.
So it may yet be that, in the end, even on an overall 10%, the LibDems, who currently have only 15 MPs, will able to double or even treble their Commons strength.
Meanwhile, if Reform UK gets, nationwide, the same, or even 15%, it will probably end up still without any MPs.
The present pseudo-democratic system is a bad joke.
Kiev 's air defense forces are exhausted, and the West is in no hurry to help – Financial Times
In the absence of new tranches of military assistance from the United States and the European Union, Ukraine is increasingly concerned that Ukrainian military personnel and military… pic.twitter.com/Uo70ulrewT
“Kiev’s air defense forces are exhausted, and the West is in no hurry to help – Financial Times.
In the absence of new tranches of military assistance from the United States and the European Union, Ukraine is increasingly concerned that Ukrainian military personnel and military and industrial facilities may be vulnerable to Russian airstrikes, writes the Financial Times.
As Russia intensifies its campaign to strike energy infrastructure and other targets in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky called on Western allies to approve new military aid packages to bolster Kyiv’s depleted air defense capabilities.
According to Zelensky, there are not enough air defense systems both on the battlefield and for the defense of targets in Ukrainian cities. Kiev admits that Russia “controls the sky.”
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hope that Ukraine’s receipt of American-made F-16 fighters will put an end to the dominance of the Russian air force and help resume the counteroffensive, which has so far failed to achieve any significant successes.“
Not so many people want to be bothered by real problems, let alone real solutions. The masses want to be distracted by winning or losing sports games on the other side of the world, the latest soap trash on TV, the latest “reality” (unreality) TV show, or whatever.
Also, there are huge numbers of idiots virtue-signalling online or otherwise about how it is “kind” or “decent” to allow a million, or ten million migrant-invaders into the UK, or a hundred million if it comes to that. We have already had ten million, over 20+ years.
Those “virtue-signallers”, the “refugees welcome” dimwits etc are lacking the intellectual honesty to admit that that means the end of our basically decent European society, and the end of opportunities for most British people. It also means a housing crisis, a transport and roads crisis, a gradually-worsening NHS, gradually-sinking (in real terms) pay, State benefits, pensions etc, as well as educational standards falling through the floor.
More music
More tweets
Off you trot early to your lucrative climate job. Headlines for 5 minutes.
Well, this week I scraped another narrow victory over political journalist John Rentoul, with 5/10 as compared to his 4/10.
I knew the answers to questions 1, 2, 5, 6, and 10.
Tweets seen
He also said in 2009 that; "We only have 96 months to save the Earth" and that was 168 months ago! The whole #ClimateScam is the biggest hoax to be ever hoist on the Public!…..☹️🙄🤬
I feel that, with the passing into history of the late Queen, the Monarchy in Britain has ceased to be of any real relevance.
Charles has become a total —and very obvious— mouthpiece for the international conspiracy.
Worth looking closely, the King today, wearing a Greek flag tie at COP, after days of a simmering diplomatic row btw UK and Greek PM 👀👀👀 pic.twitter.com/CEwaFmBYW4
That would result, using Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html] in a massive Labour majority of (about) 352: Labour 501 MPs, Conservatives 74, LibDems 35. The only thing keeping the Con Party going would be its history (now trashed anyway), its assets (if any) and its name-recognition among the public.
I notice that it might also mean an undeserved boost to the LibDems, tripling their number of MPs.
Despite that polling, indicating that Reform UK might still win no seats (despite polling nationwide a point higher than the LibDems; more proof that FPTP voting is not working now in the UK), this may not be the end of the show. I think that political academic Matt Goodwin might be right in predicting a surge in support for the rather pathetic latest Farage vehicle (now notionally led by Richard Tice).
If, as Goodwin predicts might happen, Reform UK does surge to, say, 15%, and if the extra 5 points come from Con Party former voters, then the number of Con Party seats reduces to about 30, but Labour would gain, and not Reform UK, which would still be left without any MPs despite, in that scenario, scoring one and a half times the votes of the LibDems, who would end up with about 43 MPs. The voting system is broken.
The reason of course, is that (as with UKIP in 2015) Reform UK has a fairly even level of support nationwide, without the concentrations of votes in some constituencies that the LibDems have.
In fact, to start getting MPs, Reform UK will have to achieve about 18% across the board. If those votes all came from former Con voters, the Con Party vote would have to decline to 14%. In that unlikely (?) scenario, the Conservatives would be left with about 10 MPs and might fairly be said to have been wiped out.
Incidentally, on 18%, Reform UK would still only get about 1 MP.
If Reform UK can take Labour votes as well, a very different picture. Still a huge Labour majority, but the Conservatives left with a rather more respectable 80-90 seats (and LibDems with about 50). Reform UK would still only get one or two MPs, however. Very unjust (not that I have much time for Reform UK, especially after Farage and Tice recently doormatting for Israel and the Jewish lobby).
I take Goodwin’s point though (I should do— after all, I have been making it for years myself): in a situation where both main System parties are determined to do pretty much the opposite of what most voters want, even sheep-like voters start to think how to protest, in the absence of a credible social-national party. Former Con voters may abstain, or may vote (mainly) for Reform UK, maybe LibDem, or other parties; Labour dissenters who dislike Starmer and his Labour Party may protest by (mainly) voting LibDem or Green.
Both main System parties are signed up to the transnational conspiratorial agenda— funnelling blacks and browns into Europe and other formerly almost-entirely white European societies (Australia, New Zealand etc). Also, signed up to the whole globalization project, to the biosecurity pseudo-health state idea, and to the cashless society idea (thus allowing the “central power” to de-bank people, cut off funds etc at will, eventually, e.g. to punish those who say or write the “wrong” things).
At present, GE 2024 is still a year ahead, probably. The only fairly certain fact is that this Government has run out of road, and is hanging on because it cannot think of anything else to do. Indian money-juggler Sunak is as misplaced in his office as were “Boris”-idiot, Theresa May, and David Cameron-Levita; ah, I actually forgot that ridiculous “ho”, Liz Truss. She too.
Sunak will probably decamp to California by 2025 at latest. Remember that nasty little bastard Nick Clegg? He is now living in an affluent suburb near San Francisco.
We are “ruled” by cosmopolitan poseurs of that sort, totally corrupt, and their venality equalled by their incompetence.
More tweets
In a civilised country, we should make sure *everybody* has a home! #bbcaq ("affordable" is just a distraction)
I was fortunate enough to get a Council Home, …after **TEN** years!
Yes, but at present there are nearly a million unwanted migrant-invaders coming to live in the UK every year, even after emigrants are taken into account. That makes a continuing and worsening housing situation inevitable.
A considerable part of the Ukrainian population might be fairly described as “blockheads” (even before they get drunk).
This is just Ukraine in a nutshell:
A guy, that just got back from the Ukrainian frontlines, calls a taxi and speaks Russian to the taxi driver who refuses to give him a ride because he's speaking "enemies language".
I do not know the politics of Highgate, particularly, so cannot really comment.
The Zionists are the pay masters and control the party – its no longer a Labour Party – it has Morphed into the Zionist Party of 3rd world, nonentity Torydom. A Keir WITH principles birthed the party. A Keir with NO principles has created its death. pic.twitter.com/V31dSYpYYE
Incidentally, that tweeter, John Edwards, a retired fire chief, at one time quite a few years ago would chat to me on Twitter (a pack of Jews had me expelled in 2018), but later had his ear bent to the extent that he tweeted to people that I was “a dreadful fascist“; yet here I am supporting his right to freedom of expression. #MoralHighGround…
Starmer’s turned out to be a market stall spiv – he sold us a socialist future and it’s turned out to be a crock of shite. He’s just Tory plan B. https://t.co/ISd4lXrX1X
Anyone who votes Labour in 2024 expecting any kind of positive change in the UK from that would have to be a total idiot. However, the present Sunak Government is just so hated and despised by almost everyone (my guess, around 85%+) that, in a basically binary electoral/political system, Labour, despite the fact that it offers —realistically— nothing, is almost certain to win big next year.
Latest death toll in Gaza, says @TheEconomist, is 15,000.
But that doesn't count 7,000 who are missing, many of whom "are buried under rubble." Thus, "the true death toll may already have breached 20,000…More than a third of the dead are children."https://t.co/KtrvnsrMXc
Britain is now so screwed, and in almost every way, that only a total change to a social-national rulership, combined with a massive cultural and other purge, will save it, if it can be saved.
Hancock is not a reliable witness.
As we've seen over and over, he is more concerned about his personal PR than all else. The inquiry should be forensically interrogating his every word…
But Hancock says he wants earlier lockdowns, so all is well and he's given an easy ride! pic.twitter.com/9WYpXx9NU3
Hancock should have been tarred and feathered, along with all those in and around government promulgating the absurd “lockdowns” and other “Covid”-related nonsense.
Instead, he is given hundreds of thousands of pounds to eat snails and witchetty grubs in that ridiculous “Jungle” TV show.
None of them can trace their lineage back to Palestine or the Levant region. None of them can be classified as Semites, nor do they adhere to any religious beliefs. They are a group of imported individuals & who are now occupying & colonising the Semite Palestinians as imposters. pic.twitter.com/qpprtjhWh3
“Israeli-born geneticist believes the Turkish villages of Iskenaz, Eskenaz and Ashanaz were part of the original homeland for Ashkenazic Jews.
New research suggests that the majority of the world’s modern Jewish population is descended mainly from people from ancient Turkey, rather than predominantly from elsewhere in the Middle East.
The new research suggests that most of the Jewish population of northern and eastern Europe – normally known as Ashkenazic Jews – are the descendants of Greeks, Iranians and others who colonized what is now northern Turkey more than 2000 years ago and were then converted to Judaism, probably in the first few centuries AD by Jews from Persia. At that stage, the Persian Empire was home to the world’s largest Jewish communities.
According to research carried out by the geneticist, Dr Eran Elhaik of the University of Sheffield, over 90 per cent of Ashkenazic ancestors come from that converted partially Greek-originating ancient community in north-east Turkey.“
[The Independent]
In other words, they have no right (based on claims of ancient settlement) to the lands now known as Israel and Palestine.
There should be an institute somewhat similar to SS-Ahnenerbe which could take DNA and other evidence, in order to investigate such theories and claims.
Zelenskyy’s wife is done with him being President of Ukraine. She dreams of something else, a normal life. How realistic is that? Over 600k Ukrainians died because Zelenskyy didn’t keep his election promise and failed to make peace when he had the chance. pic.twitter.com/y6zF9PZOmg
Should not be too difficult. After all, Zelensky has ripped off tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions, of US dollars, has a $50M villa in Florida, another luxury villa in Italy, probably others as well.
I know if you are on X you are supposed to have a short attention span but I absolutely recommend that you listen to this fantastic interview with @RealScottRitter who completely nails it on Zionism and Israel. #Zionists#Israelhttps://t.co/P4dsfobDEk
There is no climate crisis – warming started 20,000 years ago.
We did not start it and we can not stop it.
But we can waste trillions of dollars during an ice age on pointless climate change mitigation projects while China and Russia grow stronger and richer ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/2xIG1pjRc9
Personally. I think COP28 is the absolute pinnacle of hypocrisy. Round about 7,000 delegates and world leaders, turning up in countless private jets. In one of the richest oil states on the planet. Pontificating and preaching to the plebs why we must sit shivering in the dark,…
— Sir Peter Morris: Just fed up of all the nonsense. (@petemorristwit) November 30, 2023
As I predicted on the blog a couple of days ago, this was a “battle of the apathies”. Complete “Conservative” omnishambles meets Labour mediocrity (both on the national and constituency levels).
The successful Conservative candidate drew a veil over both the non-performance of the Rishi Sunak government and the egregiously poor behaviour (and capabilities) of ex-MP “Boris” Johnson; the candidate just kept hitting at the ridiculous Sadiq Khan ULEZ scheme [“Ultra Low Emission Zone”], and saying very little else about anything.
In a sense that concentration on ULEZ shows how meaningless the supposed “democracy” of the UK now is. The ULEZ idea and policy was first mooted by none other than “Boris”-idiot and the Conservative Party in London. Quite apart from that, the new Con Party MP, one Steve Tuckwell [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Tuckwell] will be able to exercise precisely zero influence over the ULEZ scheme and Sadiq Khan.
The Labour Party candidate, Danny Beales, was arguably not a good candidate in the particular constituency, an outer London suburb. Gay, a former councillor in inner-city Camden, and a graduate of the London School of Economics.
That said, the result was close— 495 votes decided it. Both the LibDem voters (526, fifth place), and/or the Green Party voters (893, third place), had they voted tactically, could have prevented the narrow Con Party victory. Neither Greens nor LibDems had a chance of winning, and both lost their deposits, along with the other 13 candidates, all of whom could be described as either “minor” or “joke” candidates.
The actor Laurence Fox, for Reclaim, did well, in a minor way, to come fourth, not far behind the Green. Still, this was really between Con Party (13,965 votes, 45.2%) and Labour (13,470, 43.6%). The other 15 parties and independents only scored 11.2% between them.
It does puzzle me why LibDem voters in particular did not all vote tactically. Some did, plainly, looking at previous election results where the LibDem vote was higher by far (peaking at 20% in 2010, though only 6.3% in 2019), but not enough.
Why did 526 LibDems bother to trot down to vote, knowing that their candidate had no chance? Even if they hated both Con and Lab, and so were unwilling to vote for either, why bother to vote? As someone said of golf, “a good walk spoiled“.
So a Conservative Party win, though scarcely a ringing endorsement.
Turnout was about 2/3 of that in 2019, and indeed the previous elections. I am assuming from that that many former Conservative voters, in what was since creation in 2010 a fairly safe Conservative seat (a new seat on these boundaries), just threw up their hands in disgust at both main System parties, could find no other home for their votes, and so “voted with their feet”— abstained.
The successful Labour candidate is 25, once again (like the Labour candidate at Uxbridge) gay (seems that it is almost compulsory now in the Labour Party), and has only worked for 18 months since leaving university. Interestingly, those 18 months were spent working at the Confederation of British Industry, a more usual place in which to find young Conservatives, surely?
Also, he spent some months in 2019 and 2020 working with Wes Streeting, the “centrist” (Labour Friends of Israel) MP. So it seems that Keir Mather will fit easily into the Keir Starmer Labour Party. Not much else is yet known about him: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Mather.
Why did Mather win what had previously been regarded as a safe Conservative seat? As at Uxbridge, the implication is surely obvious: former Conservative voters were appalled at both major System parties, and so preferred to stay home rather than vote Labour (or elsewhere).
Mather scored 46% of the overall vote, as against 34.3% scored by his Con Party opponent.
Since the creation of the seat in 2010, the Conservative Party had won easily all elections, scoring between 49.4% (2010) and 60.3% (2019). Labour, however, had scored only around 25% of the vote, except in 2017, under Corbyn, when the Labour Party candidate managed over 34%.
The key here, as with Uxbridge, lies in the turnout. The by-election turnout was only 44.8%, whereas in 2019 it was 71.7% (and in previous elections, not dissimilar).
The implication, again, as at Uxbridge, is that former Conservative Party voters, in a formerly safe Conservative area, simply decided not to vote.
There was obviously a degree of tactical voting at Selby; the LibDem vote went down from 8.6% to 3.3%; without tactical voting, the result would have been much closer but not, in my view, different.
Incidentally, the LibDems only managed sixth place, no doubt because many otherwise LibDems voted Labour. The third place went to the Greens, whose candidate was the only one of the minor candidates to save his deposit (5.1%).
I was interested to see that a “Yorkshire Party” candidate, one Mike Jordan, who failed to fill in his nomination papers properly and so was a blank space (not even “Independent”) on the ballot paper, yet managed to score 4.2%. Not bad in the circumstances, and maybe a sign that localism, or at least regionalism, may be resurgent as central government falters and fails.
The Selby contest had other things in common with that at Uxbridge— contempt for the former MP (at Selby, he had stepped down apparently in order to damage Sunak and his party, and after having been passed over for a peerage); the fact that both seats were 2010 creations on their present boundaries; and of course the fact that the public are both despairing and angry at the overall non-performance by Sunak and his Cabinet. Mass immigration, migration invasion, cost of living increases, inflation, crime, NHS defaults etc.
The result was that Labour won at Selby, and very nearly won at Uxbridge, only by default. There is no enthusiasm at all for the Labour Party and its non-policies (basically the same as the Conservative Party policies), but equally there is no enthusiasm (and no respect) for Sunak and his Cabinet of (mainly) non-Brits (Indians, a black or half-caste or two, the odd Jew). These were by-elections. The ruling party is inevitably on the back foot.
Starmer’s strategy seems to be not to rock the boat now that Labour is ahead in the opinion polls. It is hard for Sunak and Con Party to score a hit on Labour’s battleship simply because Labour policy now so closely mirrors that of the Con Party. Almost indistinguishable. If the Conservative Party attacks Labour policy, it is to a large extent criticizing its own policy. In a sense, brilliant… but also dispiriting and pointless.
The LibDem candidate, Sarah Dyke [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Dyke] won easily, as predicted. I blogged briefly about her a couple of days ago. Her vote-share of 56.4%, as against the Conservative candidate’s 26.2%, mirrors in reverse almost exactly the result at the 2019 General Election.
Third place went to the Greens, with a fairly sizeable vote (10.2%). Reform UK beat Labour and three minor candidates for fourth place, but still lost the deposit, with 3.4%.
In a mostly affluent and bucolic area of this sort, Labour has little chance, and its vote has dropped below 5% in the past, though it scored 17.2% in 2017 (under Corbyn) and 12.9% in 2019. It is clear that, realising that Labour had no chance, former Labour voters voted tactically at the by-election, and that Labour’s 2.6% vote reflected that.
Turnout was, as at the other by-elections yesterday, pathetic— 44.23%. That compares to 75.6% in 2019, and turnouts in previous election which only once dropped below 70%, and which once exceeded 82%.
The LibDems held Somerton and Frome until 2015, so were always going to have a chance in the seat, once the “Con Coalition” of 2010-2015 faded from immediate memory, though the damage from that was still evident in 2019, at which election the LibDems scored only 26.2% (exactly the same as the Conservative Party vote at yesterday’s by-election).
The conclusion is pretty clear: the Conservative voters of 2019 either stayed home yesterday, or switched to the LibDems, Former Labour voters switched to LibDem to hit out at the Sunak misgovernment.
As at the other two by-elections, the contempt many apparently felt for the ex-MP, Warburton, was certainly another important factor, though perhaps not the most important.
Overall conclusion as to the main System parties in the light of the by-elections
The LibDems only have a chance to gain seats in rural/affluent parts of southern or south-western England. I do not see them recovering in any big way elsewhere.
The Conservative Party government is toast, surely. It will have to fall back on its hard core, mostly fairly comfortably-off homeowners aged 70+.
475 seats for Labour. That is “elected dictatorship”.
I just tried the “user-defined poll” at Electoral Calculus. My guesses resulted in only 61 seats for the Conservative Party.
What about Labour? Well, I detect no real enthusiasm for Labour, which means that there is every chance that the new MP for Selby may only be an MP for about a year, and will then have to find a less well-paid and less interesting (?) job.
More seriously, the only way that Indian money-juggler Rishi Sunak could claw back some electoral support would be to STOP the boats, CUT BACK the main (i.e. “legal”) mass immigration, DEPORT hundreds of thousands, RENATIONALIZE water, rail and possibly the energy utilities, and start to really bat for Britain.
Those 2019 Conservative Party voters might return to the Con fold, but only if they see some action; words are played-out.
Still, none of the three by-election seats are natural Labour territory.
Pretty hard, though, for an Indian whose Cabinet is mainly non-white, or Jewish, and who worked for the predatory Goldman Sachs bankers (and so is a globalist “libertarian” by instinct).
It seems to me a 50-50 chance that the Conservative Party MPs will ditch Sunak before the next general election, but if they do, who on Earth can they try to present to the public as a credible leader?
As for attacking Starmer, the only things that might work would be to use American-style personal attacks, and to focus on his complete mendacity, his broken promises, on his “taking the knee” to the “Black Lives Matter” thugs, and his being completely in the pocket of the Jew-Zionist/Israel lobby (the only thing is— so are the “Conservatives”…).
Conclusion, then— Labour will probably win in 2024 by default, but if some real movement on the above-designated issues were to happen, it might be a different story…
Tweets seen
there have been 16 by elections since the last general election.
starmer’s labour has won about 6 of them.
6 out of 16, against the worst government in living memory, while the media gives you the easiest possible time? embarrassing to be honest.
Biden: “What was that slogan? Bread, land, and peace? No, my fellow-Americans, it was ice-cream and war!“…
Germany to send 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine
The Ministry of Defense of Germany announced the next package of "military assistance" for Ukraine. It includes the first 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks, more than 100 are expected in total.
Tonight, the Russian Navy carried out another successful attack on facilities where terrorist attacks on the Russian Federation were being prepared using drones , the Ministry of Defense announced.
The statement adds that Russian troops hit the command post of the 79th Airborne…
President Vladimir Putin accused Poland of having territorial ambitions on the territory of the former USSR and said that any aggression against Russia's neighbor and close ally Belarus will be considered aggression against Russia.
At night, the Russian Armed Forces delivered another strike with high-precision weapons at facilities where terrorist attacks against Russia were being prepared using strike drones. The target of the strike was achieved, all designated objects were hit – Russian Defense Ministry
After the backlash by Tories of newly-elected 25 year-old #KierMather I see this Observer piece about 29 year-old life peer Charlotte Owen is doing the rounds again.
Picture by me of Downing Street staff (Owen, centre) on the day that Johnson resigned: https://t.co/krUhOIqfCO
There are really only two realistic possibilities: either she is Johnson’s secret daughter (one of them) or she was being screwed by him. It now turns out that she was only a kind of temp anyway, covering the job usually done by a recent mother. Maternity cover.
Britain is so screwed, it is hard to believe.
What about the House of Lords? At least the guy in Selby was elected. Ross Kempsell and Charlotte Owen were put in the Lords by disgraced former PM Boris Johnson for seemingly having achieve relatively little in their short careers, yet they're set fair for life. https://t.co/vjnEeWfEN8
— Alasdair Murray – the Recruitment Copywriter (@RecruitmentCopy) July 21, 2023
As for “Baroness” Chapman, she was an MP for 9 years (2010-2019), and then (having been voted out as MP) was elevated to the Lords on Starmer’s nomination, having previously done sweet FA by way of work in her life except a short time as the constituency manager for ghastly careerist MP Alan Milburn. So she can shut up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenny_Chapman.
She is the mother of children, and that (and presumably being a “home-maker”) is a very honourable estate, but it is not the “real life experience” of work in the outer world, as per that clip.
As for Johnny Mercer MP, I have found him a big disappointment as MP, but I think that he can claim a great deal more “life experience” than “Baroness” Chapman, let alone that epicene little creature who is now the MP for Selby and Ainsty.
Many people on Twitter are incredibly ignorant and at the same time very dogmatic. I just saw a tweet saying that the Selby creature is “2-3 years older than Margaret Roberts [i.e. Margaret Thatcher] when she became an MP...”.
In fact, wrong, and on two counts. First, Margaret Roberts was born in 1925, and became an MP in 1959, shortly before her 34th birthday. She had married in 1951, so fought her first successful first election as Margaret Thatcher and not Margaret Roberts as claimed.
Well, there it is. Effete, epicene little “Labour MP” is going to support Starmer, Rachel Reeves etc in continuing the policy (policies?) laid down by the Con Coalition of David Cameron-Levita, Theresa May, “Boris”-idiot, Liz Truss, and now the Indian money-juggler, Sunak.
Anyone who thinks that Starmer-Labour will be in any way an improvement on the “Conservative” omnishambles of a Government is sadly mistaken; in fact, deluded.
Actually, listening to Keir Mather there, I think that “Lord Charles” would have sounded more credible.
[Lord Charles, with Ray Alan]
To be honest, my first thought on seeing and hearing Keir Mather is that he seemed to be in need of a good kick.
The fact Mhairi Black was ever elected by the losers, wastrels, desperadoes & ne'er do wells in the Yes favelas of Paisley tells you everything you need to know about how fucked Scotland has become after wasted years of the calamitous SNP #shutdowntheshortbreadsenate
— Rt Dishonourable Damian Thirsty (@damian_thirsty) July 21, 2023
“Biden’s non-binary nuclear waste guru who stole a woman’s suitcase from a baggage carousel was pictured the same weekend in Minnesota attending an LGBTQ student activism conference.
Sam Brinton, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition, was photographed wearing a black evening gown with two of the event’s coordinators.”
[Daily Mail]
The USA is even more mad than the UK.
Oh, wait a minute…next up, Eddie Izzard as an MP (?)…
The continuing storm around “Jack Monroe”, the “Bootstrap Cook”
Very hard-hitting tweets, but maybe required reading for some sadly misled people in public services, charities etc, who are still apparently unaware of the storm around “Jack Monroe”, the “Bootstrap Cook”, which gained strength in July/August 2022 and has scarcely abated.
I think that some people in executive positions at charities etc, mentally bought into the whole “Bootstrap Cook” thing many years ago, and do not want to see how it has now become a very tarnished “story”.
Having now seen more material over the past two months, I think that that assessment was more than fair. Perhaps I was too lenient.
This is not a matter which concerns only “Jack Monroe” and the many people who are alleged to have been cheated by her. This is a matter of considerable public interest and concern.
People have to have reasonable confidence that, when they donate money to a cause, or transfer the same, in order —or partly in order— to receive goods and/or services, that they are not being lied to, bamboozled, treated as “mugs”, and cheated out of money.
One of those allegedly cheated by “Jack Monroe” is a lady (not known to me other than via her tweets) called (I believe) Heather Booth (“@frugally_minded” on Twitter), who says that she donated monies on the Patreon website to “Jack Monroe”, but received neither the goods promised nor the refund(s) later demanded.
That lady, who with her disabled husband is now in a terrible financial situation, has not only not been refunded by “Jack Monroe” but also has had to contend with online trolls since the behaviour of “Jack Monroe” has become known online. Whether “Jack Monroe” herself was involved in that, I have no idea.
As to the overall “Jack Monroe”/”Bootstrap Cook” situation, it seems to me that the responsible regulatory officers (eg for fundraising and/or trading standards) should investigate it. There may well be a need also for the police to investigate whether any offences around alleged fraud have been committed.
Other tweets seen
Love the new Elon feature where accounts that repeatedly report others, give themselves a shadowban & deboost.
Looks as though some Jew Twitter-trolls from North London may be about to experience the beginning of the end…
Fritz Baumgarten (1883-1966 German artist) How lovely, the goings on and the happiness in these vignettes from this illustrator. Advent Calendars pic.twitter.com/hB91DL5Q0w
The FGM-148 Javelins that are being provided to Ukraine and then sold to our enemies in South America can shoot down commercial airlines. https://t.co/pSIwCboNvG
Now the idiots in the Westminster monkeyhouse are also sending more arms, hundreds of millions of pounds-worth more, to the Kiev regime. Both evil and stupid.
I’m unsure if this is a good or a bad thing for each religion just an interesting observation
Please refer to previous comment, mutatis mutandis.
Just saw a video of a woman in China giving birth while stuck outside a hospital that wouldn't let her in bc she didn't have a Covid test, in Guilin. Baby looked healthy. Crazy
Indicates, as much as any poll can, 18-24 months before a general election, that it may be that the Conservative Party will lose badly but not catastrophically.
It was only weeks ago that the Con Party was on 20%; now 30%. Labour Party has slipped back slightly, and LibDems have slightly improved, to 10%.
Of course, under a proportional representation system, that might give the LibDems 65 MPs, whereas of course, under FPTP voting, 10% gives between 0-20, maybe more MPs, depending on how many votes are concentrated wherever. UKIP got 12% of the vote in 2015 and only 1 MP (a previously-elected Con Party MP) instead of the 78 that might have been expected under a pure PR system.
Despite much noise from Farage, it is clear that, so far, Reform UK is not breaking through. That may be partly because Farage himself is a busted flush, having stabbed his own Brexit Party supporters and candidates in the back during the 2019 General Election. Also, in my view, because the new-ish “Reform UK” is playing the same sort of pseudo-“libertarian” and Brexit tune as did Brexit Party and UKIP before.
The national mood has moved. People want public services that work, not the right to try to become low-tax “entrepreneurs”. What most white British (especially English) people want, but unconsciously, is a form of social-nationalism suited to UK conditions. There is, however, no party even approximating to that.
Looking at that opinion poll, it may be that people are now seriously starting to assess Labour, which is aping most “Conservative” policies and, as someone once parodied Starmer, “we approve of workhouses but they must be run in a fairer way, and more efficiently.”
Rachel Reeves has, over the years, repeatedly said that she would be even harder on the unemployed, sick, and disabled than have been the Con Party governments. She is also a member of Labour Friends of Israel, like Starmer and all his Shadow Cabinet.
On immigration, Labour would allow in even more blacks and browns.
On free speech, Labour would be even more restrictive (hardly surprising, bearing in mind the powerfully poisonous influence of the Jewish lobby on Labour now).
All that, however, does not let Sunak and Con Party off the hook. Many previously Con voters are likely to see the present government as a shambolic mess, and therefore to abstain, or to vote LibDem. That may not result in many (or any) new LibDem MPs, but may have an effect in some Con constituencies.
Likewise, the Reform UK candidates are probably not going to become MPs but may well take votes away from Con Party in marginal constituencies.
It is clear to many that the Government is rubbish, but that the Opposition is also rubbish.
The Conservative Party has never scored as low as 30% in any general election. The closest was in 1997 (30.7%), which resulted in 165 Con MPs (in a slightly larger Commons— 659).
A few percentage points makes a big difference at this level. In 2001, the Con vote was 31.7%, and MPs elected numbered 166, just one more than in 1997, but in 2005 the 32.4% vote-share resulted in 198 Con MPs (in a 646-member House of Commons).
In 2010, David Cameron-Levita’s Con Party achieved only 36.1%, but had elected 306 MPs (out of 650).
The oddity of British elections is shown by the fact that, in 2017, Theresa May’s Con Party achieved 42.3%, yet only had elected 317 Con MPs (out of 650). The devil is very much in the detail.
In 2019, Boris Johnson’s Con Party received a 43.6% vote, not much more than in 2017, but the number of Con MPs jumped to 365.
All the same, once the percentage vote goes below about 35%, the number of MPs elected starts to plummet; below 30% would probably mean fewer than 150 Conservative Party MPs, below 25% a near wipeout.
At 30%, then, the Conservative Party is still just about in the game.
Well, I once again trounced political journalist John Rentoul this week. 6/10 as against his 1/10 or, as he prefers, one-and-three-quarters out of ten. I did not know the answers to questions 1, 7, 9, and 10.
I “really”, in the back of my mind, knew no. 10, and —had I thought about it— might have got no.7 too. Still, there it is. I am OK with 6/10 this week.
It does cross my mind as to why the public should pay heed to John Rentoul when he cannot do better than he usually does in these weekly quizzes. I suppose that he specializes in politics, but can you really do that without a good general knowledge base?
As we know, Britain and France gave Poland a worthless guarantee, so that when Germany invaded Poland on 1 September 1939, the two guarantors declared war on the Reich (on 3 September 1939), despite being entirely unable to take offensive action of any sort.
Britain and France turned a blind eye to the simultaneous Soviet invasion of Poland from the East.
The following 8-9 months was known in the UK as the Phoney War or Bore War (the first fatal casualty on the British side occurred over three months after the declaration of war), and on the German side as Sitzkrieg (“Sitting War”).
If only an honourable armistice could have been made between Germany and Britain either in 1939 or 1940, thus saving at least Western and Central Europe from several years of death, misery and destruction.
The same could be said of the situation in late 1914.
The failure of diplomacy and political leadership in 1939-40 resulted not only in the following years of war, but in what happened in the decades after 1945— population displacement, environmental degradation, premature decolonization, wars and civil wars (eg in Africa), not to mention Eastern, and part of Central, Europe crushed under Soviet rule for half a century.
Now we once more stand before such a situation: a non-state or “failed state”, Ukraine, being supported —pointlessly— from the rear by Western states —particularly USA and UK— , without thought to what might happen if Russia tires of it all and launches a terrifying and world-changing strategic nuclear attack on the West. It could happen. Europe would then have to start over, and rebuild from a very low point.
The best any British person can hope for is that the migrant-invaders will be just useless, and a deadweight millstone round the necks of the British people. That is the best hope. Forget fantasies of how any of them will be some great gift to us, or that they will be brain surgeons, scientists etc. If they are not violent criminals or terrorists, be grateful. I suppose. Or get rid of them.
Africa goes to Washington. Anyone not “agreeing” with the people in power is an “extremist”, and so an enemy. Goodbye, USA…
Truss starts in a political vulnerable position:
— there are few Truss diehard MPs — many more enemies on backbenches — MPs already talking about letters — some who were expected to leave politics are now sticking around sensing it might all blow uphttps://t.co/JNrGeJOsr5
If that silly woman makes it beyond the end of the year, I shall be surprised, and if she is still PM in April 2023, I shall be astonished.
The political situation at present is that, after three years of shambolic “leadership” by part-Jew/Levantine “Boris”, the Conservative Party is imploding before our eyes. In our rigged binary First Past the Post system, that automatically favours the otherwise despised fake Opposition, Labour.
The absurd LibDems will now probably survive solely because there are millions of people who will never vote Labour but who are now completely disenchanted with the Conservative Party. The LibDems are an easy option for those semi-floating voters, not least because the LibDems threw away all principle in 2010 to form the Con Coalition.
Despite what the opinion polls are now saying, I cannot see Labour forming a majority government.
I was interested to see that Labour may stand down candidates in many seats where Labour usually comes third or fourth. A tactic to help the LibDems.. A tacit admission that both Labour and Con are no longer “national” parties in the old sense. They are both persona non grata in different parts of (even) England and Wales, let alone Scotland.
More music
The DDR (East Germany). As I have blogged previously, a strange state, a kind of facade of a state rather than a real one, as it seemed to me in a couple of summer days in 1988. Yet that state, which vanished in a puff of smoke only a year or so later, was more substantial in some ways than we in the UK usually thought.
I suppose that, growing up in the Cold War era of the 1960s and 1970s, one tended to think of East Germany as being mainly the East Berlin of The Spy Who Came In From The Cold or Funeral in Berlin.
East Berlin, and the Wall, tended to be thought of as looming hugely, not only over Berlin itself, but also over the hard-to-visualize rest of the DDR.
In fact, the DDR, though not huge, and small compared to West Germany, was itself not a very small country; almost half the size of the UK, and about 90% of the size of England.
The DDR was too small a state to engage in autarky. It had no choice but to ride alongside the Soviet Union (and the rest of COMECON). The new Germany is different. more than one and a half times the size of the UK (about 3x the size of England).
What is holding back Germany, psychologically, is the legacy of 1945, the huge destruction and hurt caused by complete military defeat.
More music
Late tweets
In interviews with The Times, President Levits, the head of state, and Artis Pabriks, the defence minister, also warned European partners against weakening their resolve to face down Moscow because of economic hardship, war fatigue and energy prices https://t.co/GUFzOroWkf
Pabriks, 56, also the deputy prime minister, went further, saying the West had encouraged President Putin by holding back because of exaggerated fears that Moscow might be provoked into a nuclear attack https://t.co/2K3S6LHP0t
The President of Latvia, Levits, a half-Jew, is obviously trying to expand the war. Strange, when Latvia would be one of the first countries to be flattened by any major new or expanded war in the region.
One can see what is quite likely to happen: the military aid to the Kiev regime will be increased, with better and newer weapons, ammunition and training. The Ukrainian/Kiev regime side will then advance, and will attack Crimea and mainland Russian borderlands.
At that point, Russia may respond with a wave of tactical nuclear weapons. From then on, Europe and the Western world would be in uncharted waters.
So the Jew Zelensky has an Italian villa, as well as a USD $40 Million one in Florida? He has certainly not wasted his few years as President of the Ukrainian fake state (or failed state).
We should never stop pointing out that the most heinously barbaric, murderous and undemocratic policies implemented by Johnson, or any other PM in our history, were fully endorsed by James O'Brien. https://t.co/boyg6ZI4mu
