Tag Archives: tactical voting

Diary Blog, 5 November 2025, with thoughts about a European war, the next UK General Election, and Islamist terrorism in the UK and throughout Western/Central Europe. Also, the latest about incompetent/negligent/dishonest solicitor, “Mark Lewis Lawyer”

Afternoon music

Thought

Today is the 5th of November, the anniversary of the Gunpowder Plot of 1605. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunpowder_Plot.

Tweets seen

If the NWO/ZOG elements ruling parts of Western and Central Europe foment a war with Russia, and if that then turns nuclear, do not expect the USA to “have your back”, as people now say.

Of course, the number of Islamist fanatics willing to take direct action, or act as support squad for terrorists, is small, perhaps as small as 1% of the whole Muslim population, and perhaps only 0.1%. There are, in the UK, something like 4M-5M Muslims in the UK, so that would mean that between 4,000-50,000 are a serious danger. It also means that the others are not, but is it acceptable to us to harbour even 4,000 dangerous individuals, let alone 50,000? Those numbers, of course, will increase, along with the expansion of the Muslim population via both births and immigration (whether “legal” or not).

As regular readers will know, I have always been opposed to extreme Jew-Zionist elements, but the UK and Europe harbour several different enemy elements, not just one, nor even two.

“Terrorism” can take many forms. It can be, for example, just blacks attacking English/British people for reasons not purely political or religious, and the perpetrators may be crazed or semi-crazed.

See also my assessment of the pathetic “Prevent” programme, penned as long ago as 2018:

…(and LibDems 13%; Greens 12%).

That translates to a Commons with about 401 Reform MPs (fairly massive majority), 71 Labour, 56 LibDems, 45 SNP, 27 Cons, 14 Greens (etc).

Does anyone really imagine that the domestic political situation will suddenly change, and that Lab or Con will suddenly rise up again? I doubt it, and I doubt that that will happen. Indeed, after the Budget of “Rachel from Accounts and Customer Relations” Reeves, there is every chance that Labour will sink lower in the opinion polls. The once-great Conservative Party, meanwhile, is a not very interesting irrelevance. Its one strong card is the pensioner vote, but many of “a certain age” (not only 66+ but —I should say— 55+) look upon this country and despair…and blame both of the main “old parties” for what has happened and for what is continuing to happen.

There is also the point that, by 2029, many of the 2024 Con voters will have reached the end of their lives. They will not be voting.

Reform is underwhelming, but is the only game in town (in England) that is not Lib, Lab, or Con, that has a chance at all, and that is not basically a more-or-less pro-Muslim offshoot of Labour (Corbyn’s “Your Party”, and Galloway’s “Workers’ Party”).

It is an open question how many MPs might be gained by the two small offshoots of Labour, and by the Greens. Perhaps a total of, in the region of, 20 or 30. Not more, as far as I can see.

So far, Corbyn’s “Your Party” has not appeared in opinion polling. It may eventually get 2 or 3 MPs, it may get 10 or more. Hard to say. Of course, anyone voting “Your Party” would otherwise vote Labour or Green; the Reform ascendancy will not be affected.

However, Reform’s time in the sun may be very limited, should it reach government. Tice and Farage (and Matt Goodwin) are almost ludicrously pro-Jewish lobby and pro-Israel, and that may help them into government by limiting the msm opposition to them. However, in government it would be a very limiting factor, in my view.

Likewise, Tice, the likely Chancellor, has refused to rule out dumping the Triple Lock on State pensions. If the Triple Lock goes, so does about 3/4 of the Reform vote. A Reform government might well be a one-term government.

Then there is migration invasion. Reform has pledged to remove some “illegal” immigrants, “small boat” invaders (or some of them) etc, but that will not touch most non-Europeans in the UK; certainly not those born here, and not those here “legally”. That makes Reform almost a waste of space even if they could remove the hundreds of thousands of “illegals”.

Out of a Reform government, though, as an offshoot, might grow something better.

Incidentally, I see quite a few tweets from anti-Reform tweeters all saying about how tactical voting can prevent Reform getting seats, as at Caerphilly. Not very convincing.

Caerphilly was a long-time Labour stronghold, but Plaid was usually/always in second place, and not only in the Senedd constituency; also in the Westminster one: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caerphilly_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

The Plaid candidate was also a strong one, with roots in the area going back half a century.

In most English constituencies, there is no one obvious alternative to Reform or the main System parties. In 50-100, the LibDems would be the beneficiaries of tactical voting and, to some extent, already are. That is unlikely to be the case in most.

If Reform can get even 250 seats, far less than a Commons majority, it will still cripple the main parties. Give the LibDems 100, and all the other parties will have to split the 300 remaining. Lab and Con might split between them about 200 or so.

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[“IS THERE REALLY RACISM IN THE NHS?… Let me tell you a story, my partner works in a dementia care home, to circumvent paying decent wages they import Africans en mass via an agency , they subsidise their accommodation and some meals too, (my partner gets no help with her accommodation or meals and is on minimum wage) none of the 5 that were brought in can speak English clearly which causes frustration for sometimes hard of hearing dementia residents desperate to talk to someone. There is no time spent with the residents , they sit for hours on end with zero stimulation or interaction from staff who just congregate in a staff room for a chat, my partner (not a carer) sometimes hears heartbreaking stories from the residents and nearly all of them relating to not being able to understand what the carers are asking them to do. This overuse of agency staff from other countries is common in the NHS too where similar complaints have been reported, so instead of labelling us all as “racists” why not consider employing people WE CAN FUCKING UNDERSTAND! and pay them correctly.”]

I happened to be in a large NHS hospital recently a couple of times (not as patient). Dystopian. Car parking near-impossible to navigate and also very expensive.

The hospital itself was a giant rabbit warren, expanded several times over the decades, and with yet more building going on, but without even a basic reception or information desk (despite the huge size of the complex), and no-one working there had much idea even where any particular unit was, or how to get there. Signage terrible.

Endless corridors filled with mostly non-European staff (in uniform) and masses of very poor-looking, drably-dressed English people, presumably mostly visitors. A vision of a kind of hell, in short.

I hope that that dystopian vision is not the future for all or much of our country, but I rather feel that it is, unless something truly truly radical happens fairly soon.

[“Yesterday in Westminster, I asked the Chancellor if she would publish a tax contribution breakdown by nationality. We know the data exists, as Restore Britain has obtained the same unpublished information for ethnicity through FOI requests (see below). The gasps in Parliament were telling. How could someone even dare to ask the question? What a monster Lowe is… I’ve previously asked the minister about the analysis, and I was told… “HMRC do not publish individual level analysis of Income Tax brackets by (a) ethnicity or (b) nationality.” They may not publish it, but they certainly have it – as we’ve proven. So why the deception? Why won’t the Government release nationality stats on tax? Are Somalians paying the same amount of tax on average as Australians or Americans? I doubt it, to be honest. It’s a scandal. We’ve got some of the data. Now we must demand the nationality figures.“]

“Mark Lewis Lawyer”— latest

Long-term readers of the blog will remember the quite many posts centring on the egregious UK/Israel-based solicitor, Mark Lewis. Anyone not au fait can use the search box on the blog. The same goes for successful libel claimant, James Wilson, whose matter Wilson v. Mendelsohn, Newbon (deceased) and Cantor not only ended well for him, but badly for the Jewish defendants, one of whom killed himself (he had deceived his wife about the case and stood to lose his home after having been misadvised), and another of which now stands to lose his home, he having been misled as well as misadvised by negligent, incompetent, and thoroughly dishonest Jewish lawyer and Israel fanatic Lewis (probably with others).

Wilson won his case after he was conspired against by a whole pack of Jews, several of which are prolific (and, of course, pro-Israel etc) on Twitter/X. Details about them can be found, as noted, via the blog search box.

Latest tweets:

Believe one Jew and not another (closely connected with the first one)? Nein danke!

At one time, long ago, there were effectively no Muslims in New York City (or State) and, while there were many Jews, they were largely kept in their box, unable to take over politics, the legal system etc. That was, as I said, long long ago…

Look now. As a matter of fact, look at the way London has gone and is going.

All races that presently exist must eventually be subordinated to the rule of a super-race that does not, at present, exist.

The task of present-day European humanity is to create the conditions, not for that super-race, but for a racial grouping that will be the ur-foundation for the coming super-race.

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Late tweets seen

We have plenty of walls and, when the right time comes, people will know what to do at the direction of a social-national government.

Were he not a sinister little power-crazed bureaucrat, Starmer-stein would be a joke.

I was once a great supporter of the NHS (and the BBC, for that matter). I have not changed, they have, and indeed have become utterly useless much of the time. Said more in sorrow than in anger; both, really.

Ha. Not sure I agree with point 3. Polls show young people are generally more tolerant of mass immigration than those of my age (69). I attribute that (if so) mainly to the brainwashing they all get in the otherwise ineffective UK school system, especially the State-run schools.

Pretty silly of those “tolerant” young people, though. I wonder when it will dawn on them that mass immigration is a major reason why their work is badly paid (huge low-grade labour pool), why working-age State benefits are worth less now than they were in 1985, why rents are sky-high and council housing all but unobtainable (massive demand from millions of immigrants and their offspring added to existing English/British demand).

Late blog post by Nick Griffin

https://nickgriffin544956.substack.com/p/remember-remember-the-5th-of-november

Well worth reading.

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[Soviet T-34 tank in action, Eastern Front/Ostfront, 1943]

Diary Blog, 24 October 2025

Morning music

Britain needs a real Border Force, not the present Border Farce which actually ferries migrant invaders into the UK!

Of course, the old East German force called the Grenzpolizei (Border Police) had a dual role, as much aimed at keeping the working-age population of the DDR in as keeping smugglers, spies etc out

I have to say that the Grenzpolizei, on the couple of occasions when I encountered them, were both amiable and alarmingly efficient, for example when I and my driver were processed through a small crossing-point (we were the only car, in fact the only vehicle travelling West, in an hour spent there). They (politely, efficiently) emptied the contents of the car (a Volvo estate or station-wagon), then partially dismantled the car, taking out, entirely, various parts, including the seats (they did put it all together again later).

Tweets seen

Google “Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan”…

While many who are hostile to Reform will be crowing because Plaid Cymru won that by-election, in big-picture terms the second place for Reform is far more significant.

Plaid only does well in a few places in Wales, and makes no pretence of being a UK-wide party. It has 4 MPs at Westminster (out of 32 Welsh seats), 2 peers (out of 828), and 14 Senedd members (out of 60).

Reform has just captured 36% of the votes at the Caerphilly by-election, more than impressive from a standing start and for a party basically perceived as English.

The main System parties have been trashed by the voters who bothered to vote (turnout was just over 50%): Labour, the previous holders of the seat, fell from 45.9% to a mere 11%. The Conservative party fell far too, from 17.3% to a mere 2%. Reform’s 35% this time can be compared to its previous result (2.2%, though some sources say 1.7%; no matter).

This has huge implications for both local and Westminster elections in England, of course.

Reform has achieved this level of support not because people love it, its policies, or its leader, Farage, but because people now hate and despise both main System parties. The SNP suddenly became pre-eminent in Scotland in 2015 not because many Scots loved or much-supported it, but because the Labour and other parties’ votes collapsed.

More tweets seen

Think about it. Labour support overall is running at about 15%-25%, say 20% or thereabouts. Britain is now 20% non-white; Muslims are about 8% or maybe 10% of the population. Until recently, almost all voted Labour. Hardly any white English voters, in particular, now intend to vote Labour.

[“Agreed but think it’s somewhat dangerous to think a regional election is massively impactful to nation elections. Plaid Cymru won’t have candidates in the nation outside of Wales and that’s where the prize is. That said, the result is a big win for PC but isn’t the massive loss for Reform. 37% where they have never stood a Parliamentary candidate before is a good show. Long way to go in this story yet and Labour, and Tories, will not be happy as the narrative is they are a busted flush and the electorate will vote for anyone other than them.”]

Dan Hodges trying to spin the Caerphilly result as not terribly good for Reform UK, despite their vote having increased from around 2% to 36%! Look at Labour— 11%. Or Conservative Party— 2%.

Another way to look on the Caerphilly result might be to say that, if Reform can get a 36% result in a core part of Wales, what will it be getting in much of England.

I have no quarrel with that, but Dan Hodges is trying to stem the tide with words.

It may well be that Reform cannot get more, overall, than 35% or even a few points below that (in that poll, 29%). What Hodges does not seem to want to say, though, is that a party which gets even 29% in a general election can very easily still be the party that gets a plurality of votes and a plurality of Commons seats, maybe even a majority of seats.

On the figures above, Reform would still get about 370 Commons seats, and a solid majority. Labour might get 89 seats, the LibDems 69, the SNP 45, Cons about 21, and Greens 18.

Conservative Party would be only the fifth-largest party in the Commons.

Yes, but the idea that voters who dislike Reform will vote tactically on a big enough scale to stop the Reform deluge is very doubtful. Dent the juggernaut, yes, stop it, no. Some of the results might be unpredictable.

If Hodges says that Caerphilly was bad for Farage and Reform, how much worse was it for Starmer and Labour, or Badenoch and the Con Party?

As previously blogged, neither side should be directly targeting civilians.

A horrible tribe, wherever they are in the world.

Israeli doctors have been proven to have no ethics. Example? When the corrupt Nigerian former government minister, Dikko, was kidnapped in London in 1984, it turned out that the Israelis had made a deal with the anti-Dikko Nigerian government to kidnap him and fly him to Nigeria. MOSSAD was tasked with the operation.

Dikko was to be sedated by a leading Israeli anaesthetist recruited by MOSSAD pro hac vice. In the end, Dikko was lucky; the Israelis less lucky: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dikko_affair (and note that that Wikipedia page is one of the many vandalized by Jews connected with the so-called “Campaign Against Antisemitism” or “CAA”. All reference to MOSSAD, and almost all reference to Israel, has been expunged by the Zionist Jew vandals).

[“A caribou mother cradles her newborn protectively in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. This has been their territory since the late Pleistocene, but today the Trump Administration announced plans to auction off these treasured lands to oil and gas leasing. This means the entire 1.56 million-acre coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will be opened to: airstrips, roads, thumper trucks, drilling rigs, noise, pollution and pipelines — destruction of one of the last refuges for wildlife on Earth.“]

Were I in government, or indeed the government, he would be “shot while trying to escape“. Job done.

How about tackling the problem of Israeli “proxies”, and the Israeli “Fifth Column” in the UK?

Peter Kellner is the YouGov pollster.

So without tactical anti-Reform voting, an overall 25% vote for Reform UK would give Reform 200+ votes, maybe 250. With tactical voting, Reform might get “only” 150-200…

The System drones are getting desperate. Even 150 MPs is massive for a party which presently has half a dozen. Also, from where does the “25%” come? Reform is currently far higher in the polls and was, recently, as high as 36%.

The fact is that the “Overton Window” is moving fast now. The Lab and Con System parties are dying. Reform, though underwhelming, is a symptom of the (mainly) white, mainly English voters losing patience.

If Reform forms a government but then fails to do “the necessary”, real social nationalism can take the reins, with the support of enough people to take power. The NSDAP in Germany had only 2.6% of the national vote in 1928, but by 1932 had 33%, and Hitler was able to take over the rulership of the country.

Starmer-stein’s Labour Friends of Israel regime is in trouble…

If fake Labour can lose about three-quarters (in fact, more than 3/4) of their previous vote in formerly rock-solid Caerphilly, in South Wales, where Labour votes were once said to be “weighed not counted“, the fall in support in most parts of England must surely be as much or more, arguende. If so, then the number of Labour MPs in or after 2029 would surely be somewhere around 75.

Likewise, but even more striking, the Con vote in Caerphilly was around one-eighth of its previous level. Were that to happen in England and at a general election, the number of Con MPs would be around 15.

Late tweets

What a pity. I like France, and enjoyed my 4 years living in Finistere (and commuting every couple of weeks to the UK). I should be sorry to see France, including Finistere (which has a major submarine base on the Crozon Peninsula) all but annihilated by nuclear attack.

Zelensky will be eliminated, sooner or later.

Starmer-stein? Only about 10% of white English/British people now vote Labour. Politically, both Starmer and Labour are washed up, together with the Conservative Party.

Bravo! Quite right. Reform, for me, exists to destroy the old System parties. Once that is done, stand aside for social-national upsurge.

Late music

[skaters at Gorky Park, Moscow]

Diary Blog, 19 June 2024

Morning music

[Germany 1945— “We are fighting for the future of our children!“]

Tweets seen

600 in a day. Not counting those who sneak in on the backs of lorries etc. Not including the 3,000+ that entered superficially “legally”, on the same day (as “family members”, “students”, “fiances”, “fiancees”, those on fraudulently-obtained work visas etc, or as asylum seekers approved from outside the UK).

You still see pseudo-liberal idiots saying or tweeting that immigration is not a high priority in the UK’s list of problems to be dealt with. Think again. Immigration on this scale impacts everything, either immediately or later, and for endless years to come.

About a million a year, maybe more, and if some say it is “only” half a million “net”, does that really make much difference? So either 10 million in the next 20 years, or 20 million in the same time-period…

Goodbye Britain as anything other than a dystopian hellhole if that happens, i.e. if a real British Government does not stop it.

How many LibLabCon politicians could attract a crowd a twentieth as large? A crowd composed of ordinary local voters, by the way.

If you look at Twitter/X, as always very very unrepresentative, you will see people lauding the unemployed 25-y-o African “eternal student” who is the Labour Party’s bizarre choice of candidate. Frankly, that useless creature will be lucky to save his deposit; he will certainly not get more than 15% of the vote. This is between Reform UK and the Conservative Party whose candidate is invisible.

As a social-national blogger and thinker, I should prefer there to be a social-national party that I could support, even if a party not led by me. However, there is no such party in the UK at present.

In realistic terms, all that can be done at GE 2024 is to destroy one half of the main System binary, i.e. the Conservative Party, and to move the “Overton Window”, so that there is space into which social-national ideas and, then, a movement, can flow.

The best chance at present is that the “controlled opposition” Reform UK does well enough to destroy the Conservative Party, even if at the cost of a Labour “elected” (by default) dictatorship for a while.

I have a feeling that Israel-puppet Starmer’s plan to enfranchise persons of 16-17 years of age may backfire on him.

Ideologically, I do not always have time for pro-Israel, pro-Jewish lobby Katie Hopkins, but it has to be admitted that she is something else…Tough does not start to cover it.

I agree with her there.

Exactly. The NWO/ZOG System wants Israel-puppet Starmer as “elected” dictator. He will clamp down even more on (real) free speech (as practised on this blog), he will flood the UK with even more non-Europeans, and he will be more finance-capital friendly even than Blair, Brown, Cameron-Levita etc.

Starmer’s expected enormous Commons majority will enable the installation of a kind of “woke” tyranny. It is then that the British people will have to go beyond the usual kinds of “acceptable” opposition.

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More tweets seen

Sunak, saying that he “has been fortunate” in his life…Married, of course, to the richest Indian in India.

Sunak always reminds me of some of the contestants on shows such as The Chase, people that make me think, “you are so ******* ignorant; why are you even on a quiz show in the first place? You could not buy a correct answer“…

Sunak is a bit like that when he tries to show that he has what it takes to be Prime Minister of the UK. He plainly does not have what it takes. The little Indian money-juggler neither looks, nor thinks, nor behaves, nor speaks like a prime minister.

I happened to see a Sky News report this morning. 900 migrant-invaders have already been landed at Dover today, ferried in by the “Border Force” (border farce). All in identical orange lifejackets, all on a very large Border Force vessel, delivering them at a fast rate of knots to our shores.

900 in one single day (so far).

This is a conspiracy, the Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan, being carried on in plain sight, right under the noses of the public and the msm. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalergi_Plan.

Metaphors…”begging bowl“; how about “dustbin”?

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The Conservative Party candidate in the famous Smethwick by-election had a poster saying “if you want a n****r for a neighbour, vote Labour“. 60 years on, it turns out that the second part of the sentence should have read “…vote Labour, Conservative, LibDem, or Green“.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smethwick_in_the_1964_general_election

Interesting (even if Matt Goodwin, an academic, apparently needs to brush up on the use of the apostrophe).

Good idea.

Pity those trying to restrain the vandals did not give them the bejesus of a good kicking.

Israel has created ghetto-entities (Gaza, West Bank); cutting off oil via Turkey will ghetto-ize Israel itself.

I’m lovin’ it!

According to my use of Electoral Calculus [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html], that would mean a House of Commons with 444 Labour MPs (overall majority 238), LibDems 65, Reform UK 50, Cons 45, SNP 20, Plaid Cymru 4, Greens 2 (etc).

If that were to come to pass, absolutely stunning. It would mean pretty much the end of the Conservative Party, certainly the end of it as a (let alone the) natural or default party of government.

For one thing, most of those wanting selection as Conservative candidates, and MPs, are careerists. Few will be attracted by a party that has only 45 MPs.

Donors are already withdrawing from the Conservative Party. Large donors usually want, at very least, influence in return for their money. A party which has only 45 MPs and is not the governing party, not the official Opposition, but only 4th in the Commons, has little to offer, little to sell.

If Reform UK really did break through to the extent indicated, the “Overton Window” will have been not only moved but blasted aside.

Social nationalism might then really start to take off. Exciting.

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Diary Blog, 18 June 2024

Afternoon music

[Adzharia, Black Sea coast]

Tweets seen

Made me laugh (all three of those tweets)…

https://twitter.com/joanybaby77/status/1802833711601443145

Just one symptom of a sick society. The sort of people who take Eddie Izzard seriously (politically or otherwise…and probably call him “her”) are the same sort that would love that fake “Labour” unemployed African freeloader to win the election at Clacton.

I am not usually a Champagne drinker but…maybe a half-bottle of vintage on 5 July.

I would not be drinking to Labour’s victory but to the Con Party’s downfall, and especially to the downfall of any of their MPs who will hopefully suffer personally at least slightly as much as those victimized by them over the past 14 years.

Late tweets

Laura Trott. Complete idiot. Idiots like that pretend to know how to rule over us, they pretend to know…things; they also have a completely misconceived sense of entitlement. Kick them into the political gutter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevenoaks_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Trott_(politician).

Ha ha! “…I won’t be intimidated…!“, tweets Israel-lobby puppet Largan, as he runs away…

He must be looking for a new job, or getting back his old one at Marks & Spencer. His chance of re-election is very small. Nasty little man.

Another one to be binned politically in 2 weeks’ time.

Laura Farris. Another “Conservative” Party idiot. Sadly, in a (formerly, at least) very safe seat. The only way to get rid of her politically on 4 July will be tactical voting. The only obviously likely party would be the LibDems, though Reform UK is standing in Newbury, and is an unknown quantity.

In 2019, Laura Farris scored 57.4% (LibDems 30.6%).

In 2015, UKIP scored over 10% here.

In my opinion, it is not impossible to see Reform UK getting 15% or even more, and the Con vote reducing to about 40%, maybe even 35%. In those circumstances, it is at least possible to see the LibDems getting 35% (or even more, if aided by tactical voting; they scored 35.5% in 2010) and so pulling off rather a coup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Farris.

According to my use of Electoral Calculus, that would give Labour 512 MPs (overall majority 374), LibDems 58, Cons 31, SNP 20, Reform UK 4, Plaid Cymru 4, Greens 2 (etc).

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

So, on that basis, a Labour “elected” dictatorship, LibDems as official Opposition, Cons facing the end of the road, and the SNP pretty washed-up. Also, Farage with a very small but significant bloc of MPs, likely to punch above their weight in public relations terms.

Incidentally, were the Cons to fall to 17% from 18%, their MP numbers would fall from 31 to only 21. FPTP is a harsh system.

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[painting by Victor Ostrovsky]

Diary Blog, 17 June 2024

Morning music

[the Ob Sea (reservoir lake), Western Siberia; 124 miles long by up to 11 miles wide; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novosibirsk_Reservoir]

Tweets seen

Starmer-Labour is a Labour Friends of Israel “elected” dictatorship about to happen. Basically, Blairism/Brownism, but without the hope and without any new initiatives.

I wonder how many Labour-leaning voters will really vote Con in an attempt to sabotage Farage? Perhaps some will vote Reform in order to make sure the Con candidate is not re-elected. Open question.

If the “vote Con to stop Reform” idea were seen to be building, it might be that many Labour-leaning voters would actually prefer to vote for Farage to make sure that the Con candidate is not re-elected.

For me, as previously blogged, and while I have no time for “libertarianism” or pro-Israelism, I hope that Reform UK does well for two reasons: 1. to crush the Conservative Party; 2. to move the “Overton Window” in society and the body politic.

I blogged about that useless African freeloader yesterday. The fact is that Labour, especially with such a candidate, has no chance at all at Clacton. Any Clacton voters who seriously want rid of the Conservative Party and its Clacton candidate have to either vote Reform UK or stay home.

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[Moscow-Volga Canal]

Literary note

Just saw this about the novelist John Fowles, who died nearly twenty years ago:

Following Fowles’ death in 2005, his unpublished diaries from 1965 to 1990 were revealed to contain racist and homophobic statements, with particular ire towards Jewish people.[26] He described rare book dealer Rick Gekoski as “Too Jewish for English tastes… bending to the way of the wind, or the business and money pressure”, and wrote a consciously antisemitic poem about publishers Tom Maschler and Roger Straus.[27]

[Wikipedia]

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fowles#Controversy]

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Maschler; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Williams_Straus_Jr.; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Gekoski].

I have sometimes wondered why one rarely now hears Fowles’ name, despite his having been a major British literary figure. (((There))) is the reason. Fowles has become an “unperson”…

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Bill Cash. Extraordinarily delusional. In fact, he personifies how totally out of touch with anything resembling reality many Conservative Party MPs or ex-MPs have become. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Cash.

Cash himself stepped down as MP earlier this year, and is now retired, aged 84. His former constituency has been abolished.

8,790so far…possibly 40,000+ by the end of 2024. However, that figure will be dwarfed by the numbers of “legal” migrant-invaders, which number will probably exceed a million.

Steve Laws is the English Democrats candidate for Dover and Deal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dover_and_Deal_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

In fact, I now notice that that figure of 8,790 was first tweeted about 6 weeks ago; I just saw a more up-to-date figure—over 10,000 already this year.

[Update, 11 July 2024: Steve Laws, unfortunately, did not have success at GE 2024: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dover_and_Deal_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s;

I believe I read somewhere that the “usual suspects” have been contriving legal cases against Steve Laws, using the supine police and “Clown” Prosecution Service].

Some politicians become an “ism”, while others do not. It is too early to speak of “Faragism”; my instinct is that if “Faragism” does become a thing, it will be a transitory phenomenon, as was Poujadism [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade].

In February 2010, New York Times commentator Robert Zaretsky compared the American Tea Party movement with Poujadism.[13]

In a May 2016 editorial, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat identified Donald Trump as a Poujadist.[14]

British historian Timothy Garton Ash used Poujade in discussing the British vote to leave the European Union. In a piece published in The Guardian in June 2016, he wrote about some of those who voted for Brexit, saying that:

It is a mistake to disqualify such people as racist. Their concerns are widespread, genuine and not to be dismissed. Populist xenophobes such as Nigel Farage exploit these emotions, linking them to subterranean English nationalism and talking, as he did in the moment of victory, of the triumph of “real people, ordinary people, decent people”. This is the language of Orwell hijacked for the purposes of a Poujade.[15]

[Wikipedia]

The problem with “Faragism”, as with Poujadism, the Tea Party, the Yellow Vests, indeed “Trumpism”, is that, without a real ideology, nothing concrete or lasting can be achieved. Compare that to Marxism-Leninism or, even more so, arguably, National Socialism, which latter transcended its temporary 1920s and 1930s roots as “Hitlerism”, and still evolves.

Ideally, this would be when social nationalism could rise up.

It has not yet done so, partly because (over the past 20 years) “controlled opposition” parties (UKIP, Brexit Party, Reform UK), and peripheral scribblers have blunted the swords, but also partly because the British people, though suffering, are not, most of them, suffering enough to really be compelled to stand their ground and then advance to the future as a force to be reckoned with.

When that will happen is uncertain, but the “Overton Window” is already moving.

Late tweets seen

This is what happens when the State regulatory role is performed only pro forma, as a tick-box exercise. This became a total cancer under the Blair-Brown governments of 1997-2010; the spending cuts since 2010 have worsened that very bad situation (not only in the sector in the news tonight— across the board). Schools, prisons, the whole legal system, the court system, the probation system, academia generally. You name it.

Khrushchev, in his memoirs, said that (putting it in the language of 2024) an office-bod or bureaucrat type of person (he was thinking of Malenkov) was the very last type who should ever be given power.

Starmer is exactly that type. A sterile black-letter legal type, beholden to the UK Jewish lobby and Israel lobby; probably a freemason too. He will soon be an “elected” dictator by default, purely because the “Conservative” misgovernment is simply incapable of governing at all.

Starmer and Labour, on their own merits, would struggle to get elected. That they are now superficially popular by default is just absurd. They are not at all popular, but there is nothing in their way now. Less than two and a half weeks to go before Election Day, and the Conservative Party will be lucky to retain 50 MPs, in my opinion (which has been my opinion on the blog for months). (The “experts” are still saying 100-200).

Starmer is about to institute a kind of tyranny, for the benefit of transnational finance-capitalism and, of course, (((the usual))) “cosmopolitan” interests.

Late music

Diary Blog, 11 June 2024

Afternoon music

[Wien— das ist’s!]

Tweets seen

Stand by for Starmer’s fake Labour “elected” dictatorship…

Quite right. All sorts of people (often “you know who”…), such as Jonathan Portes, all terribly clever (in their own minds) will be saying, and have for years been saying, that the importation of a million (more or less) unwanted immigrants every year has little or no effect on housing demand. Hardy ha ha…

That useless and half-crazed ex-MP and Cabinet minister (incredibly), Sajid Javid, said something similar years ago, I think.

The “4 million” there should now be replaced by at least 10 million; soon 15 million and 20 million.

Ha. So the little Indian money-juggler “promises” to halve net migration? (“net” includes the 200,000-300,000, mainly real Brits, who leave every year for Australasia etc).

So “only” half a million blacks and browns etc (or more) will be coming in every year?

Oh…that’s not too bad…oh, no, wait a minute…

I have blogged previously about how, to my mind, Farage’s close protection squad seems not very effective. So far, it has been milkshakes and the like, but that may escalate to serious weapons such as knives. He needs to revamp his security to prevent that. The way the UK is going, nothing can be ruled out.

That Reform UK candidate was right in his original comments. Britain should never have declared war on the German Reich, and was not under attack at the time. In fact, the first British soldier was killed on 9 December 1939, over 3 months after war was declared, having stepped on a French landmine: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Priday.

In 1940, Germany made a number of peace proposals, both before and after Dunkirk, all of which were ignored. Hitler even ordered a halt to the German infantry and armour advance on Dunkirk, which allowed that very large large evacuation to occur.

Hitler wanted peace and, if possible, collaboration, with the British Empire. He wanted the two empires to rule most of the world together, or in parallel, opposing both Sovietism and Americanism.

Had peace or at least armistice been declared in 1940 or at the time of the flight of Rudolf Hess in 1941, most of the devastation of Western and Central Europe, including in the UK and Germany, would never have happened.

That peace would also have meant no Cold War, no Korean War, probably no Vietnam War (etc), no “Israel” and therefore no Middle East wars (because the Middle East would have been mainly under British and French control). It would have meant far less environmental degradation in Africa and Asia, and far less civil conflict on those continents.

Had such peace “broken out”, Sovietism would not have encroached upon Eastern and Central Europe, as it did after 1945. The whole of Europe and the world would have been in a better place.

At least one tweeter who has seen through the propaganda (((lies))).

…and another…

The former G.R.U. officer, and later defector, Rezun, under his nom de plume of Viktor Suvorov, wrote a book about Stalin’s plans to move west in and after 1941. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Suvorov; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Suvorov#Works_about_World_War_II.

Tactical voting

The above shows opinion polling re. the safe (?) Con seat of Tatton, presently occupied (or rather, formerly occupied, until 2024 Dissolution) by ridiculous deadhead Esther McVey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esther_McVey.

My 2019 assessment of Esther McVey: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/10/03/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-esther-mcvey-story/.

It can be seen from the graphic that Esther McVey is pressed closely by the Labour candidate, who is within a point or so of catching her. Also, that the LibDem is on about 12%, and has no chance of actual election.

Were the LibDem-intending voters to vote for Labour, Esther McVey would be turfed out; but will enough of them be sufficiently motivated to do that? Open question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s.

I do think that tactical voting will be a major theme of this 2024 General Election.

Late tweets

Mel Stride. Conservative. Deadhead. He must have nothing at all between his ears. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mel_Stride.

How does someone with so little intelligence become a Cabinet Minister? Still, look at his predecessors at the DWP, among them Esther McVey and Iain Dunce Duncan Smith…

Good grief. I even agree with Jess Phillips today.

Traitors. Simple as.

“Labour”, as I have repeatedly blogged, will indeed “stop the small boats”, and will do it by having some kind of mainland Europe “processing”, i.e. rubberstamping the applications of 90%+ of those wanting to come here. Maybe even 99%.

Crazy. The link between Jew-Zionism and mental instability is very obvious, and that also applies, very often, to non-Jewish “antifascist” types. See my (I think interesting, and also rather groundbreaking) study about all that: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/07/18/theyre-coming-to-take-me-away-ha-ha/ [constantly updated].

Talking point

Late music

Diary Blog, 5 March 2022

Morning music

On this day a year ago

Saturday quiz

Well, this week, another victory over political journalist John Rentoul. I scored 7/10 as against his 6/10. I did not know the answers to questions 4, 6, and 7. I was lucky, in that I only learned very recently what a “doula” is (question 3).

“Fake news”

I see that Russia is castigated for bringing in legislation criminalizing the dissemination of “disinformation” etc on broadcasts and elsewhere. A police-state measure, they cry. Well, yes, but I have seen no msm sources as yet admit that the present UK government is also planning to bring in very similar measures this year, likely to include criminalization of “false” (dissident) assertions on social media..

LibDems

First Past The Post voting results in “undemocratic” elections and/or apathy, but also in tactical voting. The recent couple of LibDem by-election successes, as at Amersham, have not shown the true picture, which is that, ever since the 2010-2015 Con Coalition, the LibDems have been declining from a major, or near-major, party to a minor and even fringe one.

The LibDems are now dependent on squeezing in at elections in places where the Conservative Party (usually) will win if LibDem and Labour voters do not vote tactically, but where the LibDems can win if Labour voters decide to vote tactically.

The results in general elections show the history: a peak in 2005 (62 MPs out of 646), under now-deceased alcoholic multikulti zealot Charles Kennedy, reducing slightly in 2010 (57 out of 650), collapsing in 2015 (8 out of 650) after the Con Coalition, then rising in 2017 to 12 out of 650; the 2019 result brought only 11 MPs out of 650.

In fact, FPTP voting never shows the full picture. In 2015, the LibDem collapse (from 57 MPs to 8) was not fully reflected in the popular vote (a reduction from 6,836,248 votes to 2,415,862, a far less-steep fall.

The decline in LibDem fortunes at Westminster has been mirrored in the devolved legislatures of Scotland and Wales. Scotland: 17 out of 129 MSPs in 1999, but only 4 out of 129 now. Wales: 6 out of 60 members in 1999, but only 1 out of 60 now.

All that having been said, I cannot see the LibDems doing other than continuing to decline. LibDemmery is a tradition which far predates the LibDem party, and goes back to the old Liberal Party, to the days when Liberals became Prime Ministers, before the First World War. Long gone days; the days of LibDem MPs may also be nearing their end.

Tweets seen

After a conspiratorial campaign by a pack of Zionist Jews connected with the so-called “Campaign Against Antisemitism [“CAA”], I was finally expelled from Twitter in 2018. Nick Griffin is still just about there, but only just. His name cannot be searched for, and Twitter has restricted his content. It cannot be long before his Twitter account goes entirely (and I suspect that it has only been allowed to keep going this long so that State and Zionist organizations can see who interacts with it etc).

We in the UK, and across much of “the West”, are not getting accurate news or, rather, accurate comment. It seems clear to me that the invasion is slowly going Russia’s way, as far as the securing of main objectives is concerned .

Some hotheaded or biased talking heads and scribblers in the UK and USA are shouting for a “no-fly zone”, and suggesting that that would not necessarily mean war with Russia. Cloud-cuckoo land. It would. Others are suggesting that aerial warfare between NATO and Russia would not lead to a general war. It would. Yet others are suggesting that even a war with Russia would not necessarily be nuclear. It would.

Staff colleges in the West undertook exercises during the Cold War to see whether tactical (“battlefield”) nuclear weapons could be used without triggering an all-out strategic nuclear exchange, or whether such an exchange could be halted in its early stages. In all cases, the exercises ended with both sides using all their nuclear missiles.

The present madness is being stoked, as in 1939, by the Jewish-Zionist element in the USA and UK.

Madness? What else is it, when many brainwashed people are considering a major European war, or even nuclear war, acceptable, just because Russia has invaded a country which, until 1991, was effectively part of its own territory, with which country or territory the UK is not allied, and never has been.

More music

[Belvedere Park, Tunis, where I once, long ago, enjoyed the morning sunshine]

UK news

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/04/mother-and-ex-boyfriend-found-guilty-killing-kyrell-matthews-two

[Defendant 1]
[Defendant 2]

How can any advanced society be created with inhabitants of that sort? They are like something out of the Stone Age. In fact, even our existing society cannot be maintained, and is slipping into the mire.

Another recent case:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fraudster-cheated-benefit-system-out-26380786

Liverpool Crown Court heard that the defendants lived in Manchester, Birmingham and London. They are all Somalian but come from a specific area with its own dialect of Bravenese and were assisted by the only Bravenese interpreter in the country.”

They should not even be in the UK, nor in any part of Europe. At best, completely useless, at worst a huge pest, and in fact a potential social danger.

More tweets

The first tweeter must be a consumer of khat [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khat].

[note: Mykolaiv is former Nikolayev].

It looks as if Putin will have to commit huge new military forces or reserves to the campaign if it is going to achieve its main strategic objectives.

Late tweets seen

Can you believe that this country is now, possibly, going to be (mis)led into a war with Russia, with inevitable huge destruction via nuclear attack, by idiots like Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Priti Patel, Ben Wallace etc? Jesus Christ! They make the British politicians of the pre-1914 or pre-1939 eras look like great minds!

Late music

EU Elections 2019 in Review: Conservative Party

The Conservatives were the big losers of the 2019 EU Elections in the UK: 1,512,809 votes, a vote-share of 8.8%, 4 MEPs (down from 19), 5th-placed after Brexit Party, LibDems, Labour and Greens.

The Conservatives were in 5th place in most of the 11 EU constituencies. Their best results were in Scotland, East of England, South East England and South West England, in all of which they were placed 4th, the largest vote-share being in Scotland (11.6%).

This was the worst nationwide result for the Conservatives since the party was officially formed in or about 1832, the year of the first Reform Act (some date its foundation by reference to the publication of the Tamworth Manifesto by Sir Robert Peel in 1834; no matter).

Since the 2019 EU elections (last week), much has happened: Theresa May staying on temporarily as a ghost PM, but having resigned as Conservative leader in advance (effective 7 June 2019); between one and two dozen candidates scrabbling for her purple, with Boris Johnson (“Boris Idiot”) in the lead. More significantly, only 40% of 2017 Conservative voters aver that they will vote Conservative at the next general election, and a YouGov poll taken a week after the EU elections resulted thus:

(UKIP and CHUKUP both on 1%; I have taken SNP support in Scotland as 40%, Con 20%).

If that poll reflects the next general election, the House of Commons would be hung: largest party would be Labour (186 seats), then Brexit Party (184 seats), then LibDem (116 seats). The Conservatives would have 86 seats, only 30 ahead of the SNP.

Note that, though: 86 seats! That would be the smallest MP contingent ever for the Conservatives, easily beating the smallest so far, following the General Election of 1997, at which the Conservatives scored 165 seats on a vote-share of 30.7%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#UK_general_elections

Many cannot forgive the Conservatives the cruel “welfare” policies of 2010-present. I am at one with that. The “Conservative” ministers responsible should be put on trial at some future point.

However, the uncaring policies of the Con-Coalition and of the Theresa May government did not directly affect the majority of the population. What has affected the majority has been the starvation of large areas of other public spending: police (albeit that I think that much police effort is misdirected), NHS, justice system etc.

Then there is the sheer ineptitude of so many Conservative ministers. Chris Grayling alone! How many times does that obvious sociopath have to mess up before he is sacked and booted back onto the backbenches? God knows. He is still a Cabinet minister today, despite having messed up at Transport, Justice and Employment, as well as in other roles! The Labour Party has alleged that Grayling alone has mis-spent nearly £3 BILLION in public funds, the Probation Service fiasco merely being his latest failure. “Failing Grayling”.

Grayling is not alone. One only has to think of Esther McVey, dishonest and thick as two short planks. Others abound. Iain Dunce Duncan Smith comes to mind…

Again, the UK (ie the Conservatives) adopted the wrongheaded “austerity” policies of 2010-present, which have not only made the country so much more threadbare but are in in contrast to those of other EU countries (except Greece), which have recovered, and grown so much faster, in recent years.

Now, as Theresa May is banished to the land of the political shades, a mass of idiots (mainly) is scrabbling to tear off her purple. The eventual field may number as many as 20.

The dilemma the Conservatives have is that they can

  • elect a leader who is Remain or “Soft-Brexit” (Brexit In Name Only), and then very likely get slaughtered when they eventually find the courage to hold a general election (perhaps not until 2022 or until Brexit Party deflates, which latter may never happen); or
  • elect as leader a Brexiteer (or, like Boris Johnson, a fake Brexiteer), which will mean that his/her attempt to exit the EU on WTO terms will trigger a vote against in the Commons and then a confidence vote, which, with a number of Remain Conservatives abstaining, or even voting against the Government, will mean that the Government must fall and a general election held, at which the Conservatives will probably be slaughtered. Catch-22.

The Conservatives really are in trouble, and it could be terminal. The newspapers (look at the Daily Telegraph) are full of articles saying how the Conservatives have no decent leadership candidates, no ideas, no overarching “story” or ideology etc.

Who now votes Conservative? According to opinion polls, only 4% of under-25s, and only 16% of under-35s. The bulk of Conservative voters are retired people, often in their 70s, 80s, 90s. A rapidly-depleting contingent.

Then we have income and capital demographics. The Conservatives are desperately trying to appeal to renters, students etc, by bringing in “helpful” measures to match Labour promises. I doubt that these late ploys will be very effective.

As to “culture wars” aspects, the Conservatives have failed to prevent the continuing migration invasion, are very much identified with the Jewish Zionist and City of London speculator element, and have lost their traditional supporters by supporting “socially liberal” policies such as gay marriage and all the “multikulti” stuff. One MP personifies all that, though he is not alone (far from it): Nick Boles MP, Bilderberg attendee, Remainer, expenses cheat and blodger (he even claimed on expenses to have Hebrew lessons so that he could communicate with his Israeli boyfriend!); he wants to continue with mass immigration, building millions of rabbithutches on the countryside for the influx and their offspring. Goodbye England!

On 6 June, there will be held the very important Peterborough by-election. Peterborough is or was a Con-Lab marginal.

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/notes-from-the-peterborough-by-election/

In 2017, a black African woman, Fiona Onasanya, was foisted on the people of Peterborough by the Labour Party machine in London. It turned out that she was not only yet another MP whose CV was partly a fake, but that she was totally incompetent and useless (5,000 unanswered emails from constituents were found by the assistant she then hired, which lady is now suing Onasanya in the Employment Tribunal).

Onasanya was only removed as MP following a petition triggered by her conviction for perverting the course of justice; she spent 28 days of a lenient 3-month sentence in prison. That did not stop her from not only getting her pay, free London flat, bills paid etc until she was kicked out, but she even voted maliciously against Brexit in the Commons, while still wearing her electronic tag!

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2018/12/21/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-fiona-onasanya-story/

Labour has a lot to live down in Leave-supporting Peterborough. However, their present candidate, Lisa Forbes, a trade union woman, is 2nd favourite (after the odds-on Brexit Party candidate) to win the by-election. At time of writing, 4/1. At the start of the campaign, Labour was Evens favourite with the bookmakers, so is struggling.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1134470/peterborough-byelection-labour-candidate-gordon-brown-nigel-farage-hustings-brexit

As to the Conservatives, who only lost to Labour in 2017 by 607 votes, their stock has fallen, or should I write “plunged”? 25/1 today with the bookmakers. My analysis is that Brexit Party is being supported on its merits as anti-System but also supported as the best way to keep Labour out. That is, even Conservative voters who prefer their usual party to Brexit Party are going to vote Brexit Party to keep Labour out. At the same time, Remain voters (including former Con Remainers) are clustering round the LibDems (whose odds have fallen from 70/1 a week ago to 12/1 today). The Conservatives are therefore being deserted both by Brexit-favouring voters and Remain-favouring voters.

If Brexit Party wins at Peterborough, that will confirm that 2019 is the beginning of the end for the Conservative Party. If Brexit Party can get 10% at the next general election (assuming before 2022), the Conservative Party is unlikely to get a majority. If Brexit Party gets 20%, then the Commons will have, probably, three or even four English parties with substantial blocs of MPs (and also the SNP). Above 20%, and the Brexit Party effectively replaces the Conservatives (and maybe Labour, to a lesser extent) in the Commons.

Both Labour and Conservatives are fading from relevance, partly for the same reasons, partly for different reasons. The Conservatives face the immediate threat of near-extinction. They now look as if their days are numbered.

slipperyslope1

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_Manifesto

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_1832

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Peel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#UK_general_elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Grayling#Government_Minister_(2010%E2%80%93)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Grayling

Afterthought, 4 June 2019

I watched “63-Up”, the latest in the TV experiment that follows a group of people born, as chance would have it, the same year as me (1956), a film about them being made every 7 years. The sort of original-thinking TV project that is rarely if ever attempted today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_(film_series)

The subjects are now all 62 (like me) or 63. One of those featured today was a young London East-Ender, Tony Walker [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_(film_series)#Tony] who had been a jockey and a taxi driver. Politically, what interested me is that the subject said that, as an adult, i.e. since the late 1970s, he had always voted Conservative, but now would never do so again. Why? Not for economic reasons: he had done well in aspirational terms, had moved from East London proper to relatively leafy South Woodford https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Woodford,

https://www.pettyson.co.uk/area-guides/south-woodford

and even had a holiday home in Spain.

The subject, Tony, was never going to vote Conservative again because he wanted the UK to be free of EU control but also because he evidently has woken up to the fact that globalist puppet-masters are pulling the strings. I do not know what other issues were or are of importance to him, and in a sense it hardly matters. What does matter, as we look at events politically, is that Tony and a million other Tonys are not voting Conservative in the next UK general election. People like him do not vote Labour these days, so where? In the film, he even said that the Greens might get his vote (to me, surprisingly). The film would have been made a few months ago, before the advent of Brexit Party and its rise to pre-eminence, but I think that I can guess where Tony’s vote is going next time…

The Conservatives are now revealed by events and their own actions as a bunch of clowns, who have failed on Brexit, failed on everything. They cannot even run the election for their own leader effectively! I really believe that the Conservatives, even more than Labour and the LibDems, are heading for the scrap-heap, rapidly.

EU Elections 2019 in Review: Labour

Labour did not do well at the EU elections: 3rd-placed with 2,347,255 votes, a 13.7% vote share, and 10 MEPs (down from 20). Labour only got two-thirds as many votes as the LibDems, and far less than half as many votes as Brexit Party attracted.

Remain whiners are saying that that happened because Labour did not proclaim itself as anti-Brexit and/or pro a second EU referendum. That is a doubtful proposition, in that it seems that more Labour voters voted Leave than Remain in 2016. What probably is correct is in saying that Labour’s message was mixed, or that Labour and Corbyn were “fence-sitting” re. Brexit (true, but what else can he do?). Parties that had a clear Brexit message (Brexit Party, LibDems, Greens) did better than those with mixed messages (Conservative and Labour). In the Russian proverb, “if you chase two hares, you won’t catch one”.

True, Change UK and UKIP had clear messages either way on Brexit and both failed miserably, but in the case of UKIP, Brexit Party simply took its votes and was seen as the bandwagon on which to jump; Change UK was just seen as a joke (there was something of that in UKIP too, it having joined with the “alt-Right” wastes of space “Sargon of Akkad” Carl Benjamin, “Prison Planet” Paul Watson and “Count Dankula” Mark Meechan).

Labour did not come in 1st place in any of the EU constituencies and, in the 5 constituencies where it came 2nd, was far behind Brexit Party (and typically with less than half of the votes of Brexit Party), with the sole exception of London, where Labour came 2nd to the LibDems (23.9% vote, LibDems on 27.2%).

Labour’s campaign was weak, and the Jewish-Zionist element was, as always, still there, sniping from cover at Corbyn and his (as far as I can see) very limited if even existent “anti-Semitism”.

Labour’s best argument in respect of Westminster elections has been, for the past 9 years, that it is not the Conservative Party. That trend has continued and strengthened under Corbyn. Is that enough?

True, Labour has policies designed to appeal to the middle-of-the-road voter (public ownership of some utilities, rail lines etc, a fairer deal for tenants, promises of more money for NHS etc).

On the other hand, if a voter wants to really give the Conservatives a kick, particularly in usually-Conservative-voting areas or in marginal Con-LibDem (Westminster) constituencies, that angry former Labour voter or floating voter might well do better to vote Brexit Party rather than Labour, because in strongly Conservative areas, Labour has no chance anyway in most years, whereas the LibDems are often the second party in such areas. Such a voter could (obviously) just vote LibDem straight off. Many voters, though, if there is a 3-way Con-LibDem-Brexit Party split (realistically), may want to vote Brexit Party rather than LibDem in the hope that a BP candidate can come through the middle to win, or because the LibDems enabled the 2010-2015 “coalition” government.

As to the impact of Brexit Party on Labour seats in the North and Midlands, I should assess it as potentially very damaging, but difficult to quantify. It is not just that Corbyn is said to be unpopular. It is also a question of Labour’s failure to stand up for (real) British people, for white neighbourhoods and communities. Labour failed to stem mass immigration and in fact encouraged it (of course, we now know from a whistleblower that Labour Jews such as Barbara Roche, and Phil Woolas, deliberately imported millions of non-European immigrants in order to destroy our race and culture).

There is also the connected fact that Labour never even admitted the nature and extent of the sexual exploitation of young girls by Pakistani gangs across the country, and particularly Northern England. In fact, Labour covered up the crimes, assisted by Common Purpose organization members in the police and in local councils.

The Labour voters who voted Green in the EU elections (held under proportional voting) will mostly return in a Westminster election (held under FPTP voting) because in the Westminster election, a Green vote is a wasted vote, without doubt.

If Brexit Party can take away 10% or more of what would otherwise be the Conservative vote, the Conservative Party is badly damaged (as when UKIP got 12% in 2015). If Brexit Party can get an overall 20%, the Conservative Party is toast except in a few very safe seats. Labour voters should therefore (whatever they think of Farage and his party) vote Brexit Party and not Labour, unless Labour is in a very strong position to win in any particular seat.

Labour has a good chance of forming a minority government or even a (small?) majority one if a general election is held soon, meaning in 2019, maybe 2020. The Conservatives are despised, divided, and weakened both internally and by the upstart Brexit Party. I blogged recently about how the Conservatives might try to limp on to 2022, when the reduction in MP numbers to 600 and accompanying boundary changes will cost Labour as many as 30 MPs. Much depends also on whether Brexit Party is a flash in the pan or a growing menace to the Conservatives.

I wrote the following after the Stoke-on-Trent by-election of 2017:

Labour has been declining for years. Corbyn is both symptom and cause. The disappearance of the industrial proletariat has swept away the bedrock underneath Labour, replacing it by the sand of the “precariat”. Labour imported millions of immigrants, who are now breeding. The social landscape becomes volatile. The political landscape too.”

I see no reason to change my view.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Roche

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Woolas

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/7198329/Labours-secret-plan-to-lure-migrants.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7095191/DAN-HODGES-Labour-declare-party-smug-metropolitan-elite.html

Update, 6 June 2019

The tweet below, from the Peterborough by-election, illustrates my often-posted belief that the Labour core vote is now largely composed of the “blacks and browns”:

More proof…

In other words, Labour is now the party of the blacks and browns.

Update, 21 September 2019

…from the Independent, “reporting” on beach patrols at Dover; all too typical of the sort of persons now prominent in “Labour” and what is left of the trade unions:

Riccardo La Torre, firefighter and Eastern Region Secretary of the Fire Brigade Union, branded the coast patrol “despicable” and said: “These have-a-go, racist vigilantes have no place in any kind of enforcement or emergency activities and will only serve to make conditions and tensions worse.”

“These groups claim to be the voice of the working class, but now they want to act as an arm of the authorities by patrolling beaches to apprehend struggling working-class people desperately trying to get to safety.
[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/far-right-britain-first-beach-patrols-calais-dover-anti-migrant-a9113471.html]

So “Riccardo La Torre” (que?), a regional secretary of the Fire Brigade Union, thinks that migrant invaders from Africa and the Middle East are “working class people”, who are “trying to get to safety”?!

Safety from, er, France? There you have in a nutshell, the craziness that is much of “Labour” now. Alien migrant-invaders are “working class people”, who should be allowed to occupy the UK at will (and be subsidized too)! Note the fag-end “Marxism”, trying to shoehorn the facts into some 1980s polytechnic back-of-postcard Marxism-Leninism.

EU Elections 2019 in Review: Change UK

I am going to blog about all of the significant parties which took part in these recent EU elections, even those that carry little political weight. I start with Change UK [CHUKUP].

Change UK is significant despite carrying little weight, in that its MPs (all ex-Con and Lab defectors, of course) and voters seem to be coming from a “socially liberal, fiscally conservative” direction and thus will be taking votes from other parties, notably Conservatives, as well as Labour and LibDems.

I have blogged previously about Change UK. I wrote in April that it seemed to be washed up almost as soon as it emerged into existence:

https://ianrmillard.wordpress.com/2019/04/23/the-new-party-change-uk-is-already-as-good-as-finished/

I see no reason to alter that view! However, the continued existence of CHUKUP does not mean that its relatively few votes will not have any effect. After all, a vote for CHUKUP is the absence of a vote for LibDems, Conservatives, or even Labour.

As to the EU Elections, Change UK ran a campaign that was a joke even by small-party standards. “Rallies” with audiences of 40, 20, 6, and even, in one place, 2 people! Pitiful. At the same time, Nigel Farage of Brexit Party was pulling in crowds of up to 3,000 people, sometimes twice a day! They were even paying for the privilege of hearing him!

Change UK, in terms of MPs, has been a kind of dustbin for a few MPs (I believe 11) most of whom were unwanted by their own local parties. Several were at one time barristers or solicitors. Others have other professional backgrounds. Few if any are poor or from impoverished backgrounds. That seems to be the case with CHUKUP’s supporters and candidates too. There also seems to be a very strong Jewish element. Twitter is the natural habitat for Change UK’s people.

I have previously blogged about the Hampstead/Highgate/Blackheath (etc) milieux in which the Change UK people seem to swim. Some wag tweeted weeks ago about how Change UK candidates all seemed to have come from the cafe at Waitrose.

In fact the above characteristics were all neatly displayed when a fruit-seller by Hampstead Heath overground station was rude to Jessica Simor QC, Change UK candidate for London:

Not everyone on Twitter could resist taking a dig at Change UK’s “Hampstead massive”!

Some tweets commenting on the above incident were more interested in the exotic plenitude of the fruit on offer from that shop! In fact, there’s no mystery about that: apart from being in an affluent neighbourhood and opposite one entrance to Hampstead Heath itself (where people might eat fruit while strolling), the Royal Free Hospital, Hampstead, is nearby. Do people still take fruit to patients? I assume so.

Well, in the event, Change UK only got 2.8% of the vote nationwide. It was at the bottom of the poll almost everywhere. In fact, it polled only 4.7% even in Broxtowe, the area where Anna Soubry is the MP (boundaries not perfectly aligned). Next Broxtowe election…goodnight Vienna.

Elsewhere, the Change UK candidates were trashed even more. For example, Kate Godfrey, the Zionist tweeter who once tried to blog and blag her way to a comfortable Labour MP career, became a Change UK candidate for the East Midlands, but has crashed and burned. I suppose that we shall see her try the LibDems next.

The day before the elections, the Interim Leader of Change UK, Heidi Allen MP, said that Change UK should “merge” with the LibDems. I doubt that that made a huge difference to the relative vote shares, but it certainly vindicates my view of last month that Change UK is doomed and, in fact, pointless.

Some LibDem/Remain partisans have made the point that the votes that went to Change UK deprived the LibDems of local wins and even MEPs.

In Wales, the LibDems would have gained another MEP had it not been for the votes going to Change UK.

As for the Twitter reaction, I have had much amusement reading the tweets of Remain whiners, all trying to prove that Brexit Party did not really win these elections at all, because if you add up the votes going to LibDems, Change UK and Greens (etc?), that total beats the Brexit Party vote. Some go further to aver that that means that the British people do not want to leave the EU and that the whole Brexit process should be halted…

and this well-known Jewish scribbler (see below) is experiencing severe angst as he pretends that the vote was about Leave v. Remain only (and that –guess what?–Remain won!). Ha ha!

So what now for Change UK? As I blogged previously, Change UK is doomed partly because it is just a dustbin for MPs unwanted elsewhere and for votes by well-meaning but very silly people with no political sense at all. I have seen this before, in the 1980s, when the SDP (which at least was a genuine party) failed very quickly.

Strategically, Change UK will get (has got) nowhere because

  • politics is moving away from vague “centrism”;
  • anyone wanting to stay in the EU and support a “non-extreme” party can vote LibDem.

Change UK may be able to merge with its more successful LibDem rival, but only if it acts quickly, while the CHUKUP MPs still hold their seats. After the next general election, there will be no Change UK MPs. Most of Change UK’s support, such as it is (about 600,000 votes, nationwide), will just go to the LibDems or to Remain-voting Conservatives anyway, and fairly soon.

Notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Change_UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019

Ha ha! Jessica Simor QC making herself look very silly (again)…

The delusion of Remain whiners, personified in the person of Anna Soubry:

A few tweets…

https://twitter.com/Tim_R_Dawson/status/1132769827616186369

and here [below] is a CHUKUP candidate, Emma Jane Manley, “celebrating” (with horrible Zionist careerist Kate Godfrey) the fact that the two of them, with three others, came seventh (!) in the election for the East Midlands area. 41,000 votes? Brexit Party got over 452,000! The LibDems got 204,000. Even UKIP, in sixth place, received 58,000. Brexit Party vote share was over 38%; even UKIP got nearly 5%; CHUKUP? 3.47%. Game over.

https://twitter.com/EmmaJaneManley1/status/1132794427859243008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#East_Midlands_(5_seats)

I find myself unable to resist adding this tweet by Kate Godfrey, mainly because it really does show up the incredibly poor level of education today in the UK, as well as the kneejerk anti-“racism” of the brainwashed “millennial” airheads featured…As for Kate Godfrey, CHUKUP candidate, and Change UK, the desperation is palpable. Next time, she should try press-gangs to try to recruit voters. Anna Soubry would like that. Actually, though, there never will be a next time: Change UK will not survive the next general election, and I should not be surprised to see Kate Godfrey attach herself to some other vehicle, perhaps the LibDems, before that.

https://twitter.com/remainwithkate/status/1131574825565208578

Note the tone: somewhere between patronizing and self-deluding: “awesome” young women who are so bloody ignorant that they do not even know that EU elections are taking place! Let alone who Nigel Farage is! Oh, but “racism”…oh yes, they oppose that (whatever it is), because they have had their empty little heads stuffed —at school and in the msm— with the “anti-racist” drivel, for years. As for the idea that those bimbos are really, actually, going to vote, ha ha!

Here is another idiot:

https://twitter.com/neverheardofher/status/1135181765184806912

Meanwhile, in the real world, “Change UK” is running at 1% in the opinion polls for the next general election.

Update, 4 June 2019

Well, Change UK has now split in half, 6 of its MPs have left and will apparently be “Independents” again (having been elected as Labour or Conservative). I expect that they will join the LibDems in the end.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48515505

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/change-uk-split-anna-soubry-heidi-allen-leader-chuka-umunna-a8943861.html

Anna Soubry, now the “leader” of the “party”, appeared on TV to talk about the split etc. She looked drunk (again). Sigh. Maybe she was just “tired and emotional”…

The only aspect that surprises me is that CHUKUP has 100,000 registered supporters, if the Independent report is correct.

Here we see Leave UK laughing at Anna Soubry and Change UK:

and looking at Anna Soubry on Sky News, it looks as if her red nose is presenting a challenge to the Sky make-up girl!

My advice to Anna Soubry is that she should just open another bottle and forget this idea that she is some kind of political leader and influencer, when she is little more than a political bad joke.

Douglas Carswell enjoys rubbernecking the car crash:

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1135951412880453632

Cruel jibe, Angela…

The Labour rank and file join in…

Some typically obtuse Remain whiners and metro-liberal idiots in the msm still have not learned any lessons, though:

Jane Merrick needs it presented A-B-C style: British-politics-has-less-and-less-space-for-vague-“centrism”…

As for the tweet below, I seriously thought it a parody, but it seems not!

Here’s another one. These silly silly people really think that Twitter is incredibly important! This one thinks that a bit of “rebranding” and some intensive tweeting and Change UK will somehow be resurrected! Ha ha!

https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1135982705949196288

Below, a more erudite analysis (from February) than the tweets of the Remain whiners, but one which, unlike my own blog posting, did not predict the early end of Change UK with certainty.

Update, 8 August 2019

Usually, the Daily Express “newspaper” can be ignored, but the story linked below is not without interest. Drunken idiot MP Anna Soubry expresses her disillusionment with Fathead Chuka and says that she thinks that he “is the future of our country”! Whatever she is drinking today, I think that I need some too! In what parallel universe is that mixed-race, smug, dim nonentity and publicity hound going to be “the future” for any country? He has a meltdown trying to decide which louche nightclub to visit! Fathead Chuka is a dead loss, but even now it seems that Anna Soubry cannot fully see that.

In any event, Change UK, now a total dead parrot, with a new name which I have forgotten —not that it matters– is yesterday’s news. Not really worth updating, but the report amused me.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1162893/Brexit-news-BBC-UK-Anna-Soubry-Chuka-Umunna-news-Change-UK-Liberal-Democrats-latest

Update, 19 August 2019

End of the line?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/change-uk-independent-group-zero-support-poll-soubry-a9064186.html

Time for Anna Soubry to start drowning her sorrows (again)…

Update, 24 October 2019

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1187406773000511489?s=20

Update, 21 October 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7628609/Ex-Tory-Heidi-Allen-joins-exodus-MPs-leaving-Commons.html

There are now only half a dozen Change UK MPs left, the rest having either decided to leave politics or join the LibDems.

Update, 14 November 2020

Late update. In the General Election of December 2019, CHUKUP, rebranded as Independent Group for Change, put up 3 candidates, each one losing badly (average vote-share 6%).

Five days later, Anna Soubry announced that the party was disbanding. She then went for a swim in another vat of booze.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Change_UK