Morning music
From the newspapers
“Three out of the four Tory MPs seen as the most likely replacements for Rishi Sunak would fare even worse than the current prime minister in a general election battle against Keir Starmer, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
The Conservatives have been involved in a fresh bout of leadership speculation over the past week, after rumours surfaced of a plot to dump Sunak and replace him with Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House, before the next election.
But Opinium found that of the four most likely replacements for Sunak, were there to be a contest – Mordaunt, James Cleverly, the home secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary – only Mordaunt would have any positive effect at all on the Tory vote.
And even then, the “Mordaunt bounce” would only be marginal and still end in a large defeat.”
[The Guardian]
The Guardian scribbler either cannot see or —probably— prefers not to see the main reason why voters polled prefer Penny Mordaunt to the other three— she is the only European (white) of the quartet.
This is to what the Conservative Party is now reduced. Out of three potential party leaders, only one, Penny Mordaunt, is even English (Cleverly has an English father).
The Great Replacement. The Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan.
That Opinium poll puts the Cons on 25%, Lab 41%, Reform UK 11%, LibDems 10%, Greens 8%.
According to my use of Electoral Calculus, that would leave the Conservative Party with 124 MPs (Lab 437, LibDems 47, Greens 2, Reform UK 0); a bad defeat, but less of a complete collapse than shown in other recent polls (one of which put the Cons on only 19%).
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
My own prediction, also using Electoral Calculus, is very different, and leaves the Cons with only 39 MPs.
Tweets seen
The fact is that, since the 1970s, the UK has changed out of all recognition, and in the next 50 years will probably be completely ruined, unless something really big happens. A million a year coming in, and only about 200,000 a year leaving (but mostly English/British people emigrating to Australasia etc). Even in terms of sheer numbers, and “net”, 700,000+ every single year…unsustainable. UK society is already near breaking point.
After Russia’s victory in 2024-2025, there will have to be rebuilding of the infrastructure of however much of Ukraine will be under Russian administration.
Just as Osama bin Laden and his ghastly rabble were CIA creations, at root. The same with most of those groups.
I have been to, or through, Alexandropolis, or Alexandropouli as the Greeks call it: April 2001, when I drove from the UK to Turkey, a more difficult trip then than it is today (for several reasons). Alexandropolis is not very far from the border of Turkey; about a half-hour drive.
As far as I know, even the Jew-Zionist propagandists do not claim that German forces in WW2 did such things.
“What goes around comes around.”
Gaza 2024, Tel Aviv 2034…
UK State Pension triple lock
For the Conservative Party, it is now not about trying to “win” GE 2024, but trying to mitigate losses— damage control.
Apart from the wealthy/very wealthy, the core Conservative Party vote is composed of persons over the age of 65. About 20% in toto. Recently, that core vote has been showing signs of erosion. Hence Jeremy Hunt’s triple lock pledge.
If the core vote stays quite firm, and the Conservative Party gets about 25% in the upcoming General Election, Con Party might expect to be left with maybe 100 MPs, possibly more if Labour dips below 45%.
If, on the other hand, the Cons only get 20%, their MP-cadre might only be 40. The first scenario is very bad for them but the second, disastrous.
Should the Con vote overall fall to 15% (admittedly unlikely), the number of Con MPs would fall below 15, effectively a wipe-out.
So that is Hunt’s idea. Keep the pensioners on board, and so end up in 2025 with 100+ MPs instead of 50 or fewer.
Anneliese Dodds, the uninspiring Labour Shadow Chancellor, has responded sluggishly to Hunt’s foray, and will not commit to the triple lock. Result— not a knockout, but a win on points anyway for Hunt and the Cons.
In reality, Hunt’s pledge was an easy and cheap one to make. He knows that there is a 99% (?) chance of the Conservative Party not forming the next government; he will never have to implement his “pledge”.
That being so, the pledge is worthless, and any thinking pensioner voter will (?) understand that it changes nothing, and the pensioner vote changes nothing, in terms of formation of the next government.
On the premises, that may mean that the “pledge” will not be fully effective in influencing intended voting. Still, it may have some effect.
I should add that, though I myself do now receive a State Pension, it is only about half of the maximum, by reason of my many years overseas. The pledge by Hunt therefore impacts me far less than it does others.
More tweets
An old one, from 2016, prior to my wrongful and indeed unlawful disbarment in October of that year, which disbarment was procured by so-called “UK Lawyers for Israel” or “UKLFI”.
Still true, though. You never find those making money out of clicks and donations, such as “Prison Planet” Watson, supporting social-national people whose freedom of expression is stolen by “the usual suspects” and their dupes in the police and CPS etc.
Late tweets
“Gaza: as of today, @UNRWA, the main lifeline for #Palestine Refugees, is denied from providing lifesaving assistance to northern Gaza. Despite the tragedy unfolding under our watch, the Israeli Authorities informed the UN that they will no longer approve any @UNRWA food convoys to the north.
This is outrageous & makes it intentional to obstruct lifesaving assistance during a man made famine. These restrictions must be lifted. UNRWA is the largest organisation with the highest reach to displaced communities in Gaza. By preventing UNRWA to fulfill its mandate in Gaza, the clock will tick faster towards famine & many more will die of hunger, dehydration + lack of shelter. This cannot happen, it would only stain our collective humanity.“
Israeli war crimes continue.
There is no such thing, as such, as “the wandering Muslim”. On the other hand…
Well, ’nuff said…
Not yet. In the future.
Late music
Crowdfunder
My crowdfunder remains open at https://www.givesendgo.com/GC14J. If you are unable to donate, sharing the appeal on social media etc is also useful. Thank you.
Ian Robert Millard 