Category Archives: AfD

Diary Blog, 23 February 2025, including the latest on the free speech problem in the UK, and about a potential third term as President for Trump

Afternoon music

[Spetsnaz/VDV officer exits aircraft over Vasilievsky Island, St. Petersburg]

Free speech? What free speech?

I happened to see the following report in the online Mail on Sunday/Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14424959/Knock-knock-Thought-Police-thousands-criminals-uninvestigated-detectives-call-grandmother-crime-went-Facebook-criticise-Labour-councillors-centre-Hope-Die-WhatsApp-scandal-exposed-MoS.html

Highlights from that news report:

EXCLUSIVE— Knock knock, it’s the Thought Police: As thousands of criminals go uninvestigated, detectives call on a grandmother. Her crime? She went on Facebook to criticise Labour councillors at the centre of the ‘Hope you Die’ WhatsApp scandal exposed by the MoS.

In a chilling clampdown on free speech, two police officers pay a visit to a grandmother – simply for criticising Labour politicians on Facebook.

Detectives were last night accused of acting like East Germany‘s feared Stasi secret police for quizzing Helen Jones over her calls for the resignation of local councillors embroiled in the WhatsApp scandal exposed by The Mail on Sunday.

Police conceded that the 54-year-old had committed no crime – yet Mrs Jones says she has effectively been silenced by the officers, as she was intimidated by them calling at her door and is too terrified to post on social media again.

‘It was actually quite scary. It made me think I best just keep quiet for the rest of my life, because you just can’t say anything these days,’ she said.

The response by Greater Manchester Police was also branded a waste of time and scant resources at a time when so many crimes go uninvestigated.

Toby Young, director of the Free Speech Union, said: ‘This is typical of the weird authoritarian atmosphere that has grown up in Britain since Sir Keir Starmer took control. Good luck persuading Greater Manchester Police to send two police officers to your house if you’re burgled or your car is stolen.'”

[“Doorcam footage of the police visiting Helen Jones’s house on Tuesday, February 18“— Daily Mail/Mail on Sunday]

Helen Jones (pictured) called for the resignation of local councillors embroiled in the WhatsApp scandal exposed by The Mail on Sunday

[“Helen Jones (pictured) called for the resignation of local councillors embroiled in the WhatsApp scandal exposed by The Mail on Sunday“— Mail on Sunday/Daily Mail]

It is the latest in a string of incidents in which police have investigated people for social media posts, including newspaper columnist Allison Pearson, feminist writer Julie Bindel, and former policeman Harry Miller, whose name was added to a database for his ‘non-crime hate incident’. Mr Miller, who founded the Fair Cop campaign group, said of Mrs Jones’s treatment: ‘It flies in the face of our freedoms and it’s wrong. That’s far more akin to a European police force – or even worse a Stasi police force.’

At around 1.30pm last Tuesday, while Mrs Jones was looking after her baby grandson at a nearby house, a detective sergeant and another officer knocked at her door and spoke to her husband Lee, 54, via an intercom.

A shocked Mrs Jones rushed home fearing something tragic had happened to a loved one. At 2.15pm she received a phone call from an officer thought to be the same sergeant who knocked on her door and was told the police had received a complaint about her recent social media posts.

Speaking exclusively to the MoS, she said: ‘[The officer] said, ‘We’ve had a complaint,’ and I immediately asked, ‘From who?’, and he said, ‘Well, I can’t tell you that’.’

She asked if Cllr Sedgwick or his partner had made the complaint. ‘[The officer’s] exact words were ‘Your thought process is correct in that’,’ said Mrs Jones. ‘I asked the police officer, have I committed any sort of crime. Why did you call at my door? They said, ‘Someone has spoken to us about your social media posts.’

‘I then said, ‘If I don’t take your advice and continue doing what I am doing, will I be committing a crime?’ He said no. I then asked. ‘What will you do about it?’ He said, ‘There’s not a lot we can do, we are just giving you advice’.’

[Mail on Sunday/Daily Mail]

Regular readers of the blog will know that I have had similar experiences over the past decade (see below), all instigated by the Jew-Zionist lobby cabals, but you will not see or hear Toby Young, his “Free Speech Union”, the Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph, or scribbler Allison Pearson mention that, or defend my rights.

Incidentally, Toby Young puts the blame entirely on Starmer and fake Labour, who have only been in government for 7-8 months. The poundland police state in the UK goes back much further, certainly to Tony Blair’s premiership.

My own experiences as target of police-state measures instigated by Jew-Zionist pro-Israel fanatics go back to at least 2012, when the part-Jew David Cameron-Levita was PM. The same is true of the years when other part-Jews were in government as Prime Minister(s) of the UK in recent years— Theresa May and “Boris” Johnson, as well as during the government of the little Indian money-juggler, Sunak.

Tweets seen

Welcome news, as more people fight back against Zionist trolls and bullies. Congratulations and solidarity to Ray Campbell! Now, we need to go on the front foot and directly target the anonymous Zionist trolls at ‘GnasherJew’ and the direct Zionist regime agents at the so-called Campaign Against Antisemitism. They must be aggressively pursued by legal, regulatory and political means. #DismantleZionism.”

[David Miller]

Yes. Take action against the “CAA” and also against the two or three main Jews who are behind the making of those malicious complaints.

Goldsmiths (College) has been rather infested (in fact, by more than one tendency) for a number of years.

Stasi

Having seen (above) how the UK’s police are, or have turned into, a kind of poundshop Stasi, here is some “Ostalgie” about the real ones from the now-long-defunct DDR, which odd small state I myself saw, though not for long, in 1988:

Trump as potential “third term” U.S. President

John Bolton, a typical NWO/ZOG globalist drone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolton

All the same, the talk of Trump having a third term as President is interesting. Most people are dismissing the idea out of hand, but I wonder.

The last President to be elected to a third term (and I think the only one) was F.D. Roosevelt, in 1940; he was then once more elected, to a fourth term, in 1944, but died in office in 1945.

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, restricting the number of terms to two, was adopted in 1947 but only ratified in 1951.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Attempts_at_repeal_or_reform

U.S. Constitutional amendments can be repealed by a further amendment, e.g. when the 18th Amendment (Prohibition) was repealed by the 21st Amendment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_the_United_States.

Amaury de Riencourt, in his stellar work, The Coming Caesars [pub. 1957] examined the possibility of a U.S. President becoming (as many thought Roosevelt would become), an “American Caesar” (a designation also used for Douglas MacArthur, who many once saw as a future President, but who never seriously attempted to become one).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaury_de_Riencourt

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt#Election_of_1940

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_MacArthur#Later_life.

Just cut off all arms and ammunition (and money, and intelligence information) to the regime in Kiev. The war will then grind to a halt within a few weeks.

Zelensky poisons the future of all his supporters.

It just gets better and better…

[“Russian troops liberated two communities in the Donetsk region over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported: https://vk.cc/cISjt5“— TASS]

I never use “right“, “far right“, “left” etc, but the meaning is fairly clear— Europe is reawakening.

Late thoughts

Saw a few minutes of Sky News Press Preview. Guest? The Jew (I think the name was Rosenberg) who apparently heads the Board of Deputies of British Jews, i.e. the voice of the Jews, or most of them (?), in the UK. Needless to say, pro-Zelensky etc.

Zelensky’s “offer” to resign if he gets what he has been demanding for several years, i.e. Ukraine’s membership of NATO, is of course just a bad joke, a complete nullity.

The fact is that the balance of power in that war, and in Eastern Europe, perhaps all of Europe, has tipped decisively. Zelensky is an irrelevance now, and his Kiev regime is obviously going to implode; either that, or Russian tanks will be in or around Kiev by 2027 at the latest.

Likewise, Starmer, Macron, and whoever now heads Germany, are sidelined.

This may change everything, even in the UK.

Late music

Diary Blog, 16 February 2025

Afternoon music

[Alhambra— panorama]

Migration-invasion news

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14401525/Syrian-man-stabs-boy-death-wounds-four-knife-rampage-Austrian-town.html

A 14-year-old boy has been knifed to death after a Syrian refugee randomly stabbed passersby in the Austrian city of Villach today, leaving four others injured.”

[Daily Mail]

Get rid of them. Get rid of them out of Austria. Get rid of them out of the UK. Get rid of them out of Europe.

Tweets seen

In 1943, amid the devastating final years of World War II, the Berlin Zoo was heavily bombed, leaving much of the zoo in ruins and many of its animals in grave danger. Among the survivors was a Shoe-billed stork, an unusual and majestic bird recognized for its unique, shoe-shaped bill and stately demeanor. With the zoo’s facilities destroyed, the stork found an unlikely refuge in a nurse’s bathroom, a small but safe haven where it was cared for during the chaos of war. The nurse’s bathroom became a sanctuary for the bird, symbolizing the compassion and determination of those who worked to protect the zoo’s animals despite the dire circumstances. The stork’s survival depended on the care it received in this improvised setting, where it was fed and tended to with limited resources. This poignant scene of a wild, exotic bird in a domestic, human space emphasized the extraordinary lengths people went to preserve life during a time when destruction seemed all-encompassing. The survival of the Shoe-billed stork and its temporary shelter in the nurse’s bathroom became a powerful symbol of resilience and hope amidst the horrors of war. While much of the zoo was destroyed and many animals were lost, stories like this highlight the small acts of care and humanity that endured even in the darkest hours. The stork’s journey is a testament to the enduring bond between humans and animals and serves as a reminder of the fragments of hope that can emerge even in times of overwhelming devastation.

Thus proving, yet again, that “Boris”-idiot never does his homework…(and always talks rubbish)…

Stray thought

Though I cannot claim huge numbers of readers on any one day, or most days, the blog does have hits from almost all of the states and territories of the world, even places such as Antarctica, Greenland, Burkina Faso etc.

Today, so far, UK, USA (those two by far the bulk of hits), but also Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, and New Zealand.

Are they all supporters? Probably not. Enemies also snoop on the blog, but no matter— “one human soul is a big audience“.

More tweets seen

The subterranean city of Derinkuyu, located in Cappadocia region of Türkiye, an extraordinary historical site with the capacity to house an estimated 20,000 to 60,000 people, including their livestock and supplies. Its discovery occurred unexpectedly in 1963 when a homeowner accidentally broke through a wall in his basement, unveiling an ancient and intricate underground structure hidden for centuries. Derinkuyu is an impressive multi-level complex, descending over 200 feet below the surface and consisting of at least 18 levels, though only a portion of it has been fully excavated. The city features an array of functional spaces, including living quarters, kitchens, storage areas, wine and oil presses, stables, and even chapels and schools. Ventilation shafts and a sophisticated water system ensured the city’s inhabitants could survive underground for extended periods. Defensive mechanisms, such as heavy stone doors that could be rolled into place, protected the city from invaders. Historians and archaeologists believe Derinkuyu was initially constructed by the Phrygians or Hittites in the early centuries BCE, though it was later expanded and used by various groups, including early Christians, as a refuge from persecution or attacks. Its design reflects the ingenuity and resilience of the civilizations that relied on such cities for survival during times of conflict or environmental challenges. The discovery of Derinkuyu has spurred interest in Cappadocia’s extensive network of underground cities, many of which remain unexplored. These ancient marvels continue to captivate researchers and visitors alike, shedding light on the innovative ways humans adapted to their environment and safeguarded their communities.

Recruits to the castle-convents scattered across Teutonic territory primarily hailed from Germanic regions such as Franconia, Thuringia, the Rhine, and other German territories. These knights, often aristocrats but also comprising lower-ranking members, were stationed in commanderies housing anywhere from 10 to 80 individuals. Similar to other military orders, recruits pledged monastic vows of poverty, chastity, and obedience. Joining offered prospects of spiritual rewards, adventure, career advancement, and even basic amenities like regular meals and shelter. While German settlers were permitted entry, they typically served as priests or half-brethren. Each castle-convent also accommodated local crossbowmen, as well as non-combatants like servants and craftsmen. Although officially international, the order predominantly drew recruits from German lands. Membership numbers varied, influenced by battles and territorial shifts. For instance, Prussia counted 700 members in 1379 AD, 400 in 1450 AD, 160 in 1513 AD, and 55 in 1525 AD. The total knightly roster likely never exceeded around 1,300. The order’s revenue stemmed from wartime spoils, captured territories, trade, land rents, and donations in cash, goods, or land. Some brethren paid an entry fee, while taxes on local populations were imposed in Teutonic territories by the 15th century AD. As recruitment challenges grew, the order increasingly relied on mercenaries, necessitating financial support. Commanderies not only offered training, residences, and retirement options but also extended aid to local communities through hospices, hospitals, schools, and cemeteries. Additionally, the order constructed churches, providing ongoing maintenance and fostering artistic endeavors for embellishment.

I once knew a German lady from East Prussia, one of whose several historically-distinguished ancestors was a Grand Master of the Teutonic Knights in the Middle Ages.

The Lion Man – An Ice Age Masterpiece : The Lion Man is a masterpiece. Sculpted with great originality, virtuosity and technical skill from mammoth ivory, this 40,000 year-old image is 31cm tall. It has the head of a cave lion with a partly human body. He stands upright, perhaps on tiptoes, legs apart and arms to the sides of a slender, cat-like body with strong shoulders like the hips and thighs of a lion. His gaze, like his stance, is powerful and directed at the viewer. The details of his face show he is attentive, he is watching and he is listening. He is powerful, mysterious and from a world beyond ordinary nature. He is the oldest known representation of a being that does not exist in physical form but symbolises ideas about the supernatural.

Found in a cave in what is now southern Germany in 1939, the Lion Man makes sense as part of a story that might now be called a myth. The wear on his body caused by handling suggests that he was passed around and rubbed as part of a narrative or ritual that would explain his appearance and meaning. It is impossible to know what that story was about or whether he was deity, an avatar to the spirit world, part of a creation story or a human whose experiences on a journey through the cosmos to communicate with spirits caused this transformation. Obviously, the story involved humans and animals. Lion Man is made from a mammoth tusk, the largest animal in the environment of that time and depicts the fiercest predator, a lion, now extinct, that was about 30 centimetres taller than a modern African lion and had no mane. Distinct from other animals through their use of tools and fire, humans were nonetheless dependent on some animals for food while needing to protect themselves from predators. Perhaps this hybrid helped people to come to terms with their place in nature on a deeper, religious level or in some way to transcend or reshape it.

Archaeological discoveries in other caves in this region include small sculptures as shown in the British Museum’s 2013 exhibition Ice Age art: arrival of the modern mind. They were found in caves with large quantities of stone tools and animal bones that indicate people lived in the shelter of the daylight areas of these sites for repeated periods of time.

Stadel Cave, where the Lion Man was found, is different. It faces north and does not get the sun. It is cold and the density of debris accumulated by human activities is much less than at other sites. This was not a good place to live. Lion Man was found in a dark inner chamber, carefully put away in the darkness with only a few perforated arctic fox teeth and a cache of reindeer antlers nearby. These characteristics suggest that Stadel Cave was only used occasionally as a place where people would come together around a fire to share a particular understanding of the world articulated through beliefs, symbolised in sculpture and acted out in rituals.

Lion Man is the oldest known evidence for religious beliefs and Stadel Cave suggests that believing and belonging have a deep history crucial to human societies and originating long before writing. In 2017, UNESCO acknowledged Stadel Cave and other Swabian localities as World Heritage Sites of importance to all humanity and now Ulm Museum has loaned this important sculpture to the British Museum for the exhibition.”

The candidate for Chancellor of Germany Alice Weidel has called for the restoration of relations and economic ties with Russia The election program of Alternative for Germany includes points about the need to lift sanctions on Russia to allow free trade. Additionally, according to members of the AfD, it is necessary to repair the Nord Stream pipeline, which supplied Russian gas to Europe. “We want to end the sanctions policy, which primarily harms our country,” Weidel said. She reminded that just two years ago, Germany was buying cheap natural gas from Russia through Nord Stream, but now the country has “the highest energy prices in the world.”

The AfD is not fully social-national but is still clearly the best choice for German voters at present. Deutschland erwache!

I thought, when he was not nominated (plainly at his own request) for a fake peerage that Johnson, aka “Boris”-idiot, had it in mind to stand for leader again.

Were Johnson to get some sympathetic Con MP to stand down in his favour, Johnson might well win a safe-seat by-election.

Why would any MP do that? In return for a promise of getting a peerage later. That would not require Johnson to be Prime Minister, because the Leader of the Opposition also has peerage-nomination rights.

Johnson would then have to wait (probably) until November 2025 before at least 15% of Con MPs send in letters of no-confidence in “Carpetbagger Kemi” Badenoch. That means 18 MPs, as matters stand. That would happen. Con MPs know that Kemi Badenoch is a total turn-off for most voters, sure to lose the next general election and, thus, a number of seats.

Then, all Johnson would need would be a small number of MPs (in the 2024 leadership election, the number was 10 MPs) to nominate him as a candidate (quite likely possible).

Opinion polls of 2024 Con-voting people show that Johnson is far more popular (despite his evident unfitness to hold office, despite his total incompetence) than Kemi Badenoch.

I may even place a bet on “Boris” to be next Con Party leader. The odds, though, are not too generous, below 5/1. Maybe I shall lose my money elsewhere…

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.235470805.

As Matt Goodwin says, though, Johnson was disastrous as PM (and, before that, as Foreign Secretary), and at present the Con Party is hovering around or below 20% in the opinion polls.

Quelle surprise…Stella Creasy cannot spell “supersedes“. Ignorant woman.

Nearly every other day I learn that someone I know in Wiltshire, in Westminster or in my wider Conservatiive network has left the party – and about half the time they join Reform too. Today two have jumped. Give it time, say Tory diehards but even under new leadership the Conservative Party simply isn’t healing or recovering. Its decline is continuing. I am not finding Reform membership easy but don’t regret my move nor leaving a party that is now so divided and adrift. It’s sad to watch.

I don’t know one lifetime Tory that still supports them personally, i wont ever vote for them again. They’re bad coalition where no meaningful policy happens, migration we had since Cameron was mostly low skill we are paying 70 yr high tax to subside that migration . Waste is massive, they were funding most of the things they said they didn’t support. to be honest Tim looking at the state of this country I’m wondering did they do anything in 14 years, everything in England is broken, GPS, dentists, NHS, councils, police, judiciary, child services, mental health services, prisons, social care, we have gone backward and it’s frightening to watch.

Semi-literate, but surely accurate.

It has been forecast in the past and not quite happened, but I truly feel that the once-great Conservative Party is now finally going the same way as the old 19thC/20thC Liberal Party. Terminal decline.

The Con vote in (?) 2029 (and assuming that a nuclear war has not happened by then anyway) may be as low as 15%.

That could see the Con Party reduced to 20 MPs (if Con 15%, Lab 25%, Reform 30%, LibDems 15%, Greens 10%): see https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html.

It would also mean Reform UK getting 330 Commons seats, an overall majority, and thus being able to form the next Government of the UK. If that then ended badly, social nationalism could finally arise. God mote it be.

Late news and tweets

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2pddvwgg8o

Lord Walney has called for more action to protect the public from “the menace of extreme protestors”, after his role as the government’s independent adviser on political violence was scrapped.

[BBC]

Ha ha. Good news.

Translation: “useless sex pest, depressive case, and puppet of the Israel lobby “Lord” Walney (aka John Woodcock) has been sacked.”

The bastard is also an egregious moneygrubber, taking money from lobby groups and oil, gas, and armaments interests. Evil little bastard.

See also:

Other Israel-lobby puppets and useless types, including notorious ex-MP “Lord” Ian Austin, and notably cultureless and useless ex-MP and one-time Culture Secretary Ed Vaizey (now “Lord” Vaizey), have been tweeting in support of said bastard. Many others feel differently, though.

(((Because)))…

I nearly missed Woodcock/Walney’s sacking. That would have been a pity. I now feel quite cheered-up (after the pathos of having watched the film of Doctor Zhivago).

Late thought

Earlier today, I caught literally the last 30-60 seconds of an interview (I think on Sky News) with, I also think, a junior Labour minister whose name I did not get. What a typically smug, pleased-with-himself bastard! A System political drone with, in the short piece I saw, nothing to say beyond the sort of bland propaganda soundbites all too common over the past 25 years.

No wonder the British people are turning off from System parties and politicians. Reform UK is but the next step on the road, not the ultimate destination. Anger and frustration is growing.

Late music

[Monet, Sunset on the Seine in Winter]

Diary Blog, 15 December 2021, including brief assessment of the North Shropshire by-election

Morning music

[The Lion, Forbury Gardens, Reading; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maiwand_Lion]

Interesting travelogue

Lyrics unintentionally amusing in places…

Us and Them

A fairly hard-hitting video by Paul Joseph Watson, “@PrisonPlanet”. I do not rate Watson very highly from the strict political point of view, but his interesting vlogs have awoken many, at least from unquestioning acceptance of the propaganda pumped out by the System.

On this day a year ago

Another ghastly crime against a small child

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310411/TWO-tragic-children-murdered-failed-system.html

This time, the crime involved crazed lesbians, one of which (the actual murderess) was from some (unspecified but looking at the photo probably Irish tinker-“traveller”) “gypsy” origin, according to the newspaper report.

Dismissed as ‘racist homophobes’, the great grandparents who tried to save Star Hobson: Toddler’s injuries were ignored FIVE TIMES by social services after gipsy lesbian stepmother ‘convinced them relatives who raised alarm were malicious’ [Daily Mail].

Is there more of this sort of terrible abuse now, as compared to, say, 1960, or 1930? I do not know. The breakdown of society, and social norms, may be part of the problem, but there is a dearth of reliable information.

The cost of the panicdemic/scamdemic “measures” and relief

Still think that the “Boris”/Sunak “furlough” giveaway, and other nonsense such as “Test and Trace”, has been cost-free to individual members of the public? Think again: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310253/Ministers-consider-plans-raise-state-retirement-age-born-1970s-seven-years.html.

North Shropshire by-election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election.

The by-election in North Shropshire is taking place tomorrow. I have not bothered to blog about it because the seat has until now been considered safe for the Conservative Party. I have just read an appreciation by a Professor Jennings: https://news.sky.com/story/north-shropshire-by-election-could-a-surprise-be-on-the-cards-12495468.

There are 14 candidates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election#Candidates.

The Conservative candidate is one Dr. Neil Shastri-Hurst, who seems to be of mixed origins, and who is both a barrister and a medical doctor (former Army doctor): see https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-branded-callous-over-25530760. The election is plainly his to lose, given the history of the seat.

Conservative Party candidates have won every election for the seat since 1832 (the seat was not in existence between 1885 and 1983), and the Conservative Party vote peaked in 2019 at 62.7%.

Labour, though traditionally usually coming in in second place, came close to ousting the Conservative candidate in 1997; only about 4 points separated the top two that year.

In 2019, the Labour candidate received a vote-share of 22.1%, but the same candidate had scored 31.1% in 2017.

The Conservative Party vote-share has risen uninterruptedly since 1997, whereas the Labour vote has generally declined; the 2017 Labour vote-share was higher than in most years.

It follows that, should the “unthinkable” occur and Shastri-Hurst not be elected, the shock to the Conservative Party (and “Boris”) would be seismic.

Among the 14 candidates are Reclaim Party (the Laurence Fox vehicle), Reform UK (the latest Nigel Farage pop-up), the rump of UKIP, and Heritage, as well as Green Party and the LibDems, whose best result in effect (as Liberal Party) was a second-place 31.6% in 1983.

In the past, it was likely that serious tactical voters would go Labour rather than LibDem, Labour having the higher likelihood of success in the seat, but that is an open question this time. The bookmakers put the Conservatives and LibDems neck-and-neck, and it seems that confidence is not high in the “Boris” camp. Having said that, bookmakers are often a poor source for election predictions, their odds reflecting (mainly) bets placed, many of which are placed far from the constituency.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/13/bookies-make-lib-dems-favourite-in-north-shropshire-poll-owen-paterson-byelection.

Naturally, newspaper reports such as that, showing that the LibDems have a good chance, tend to encourage tactical voting.

As to how much the Conservative vote will be impacted by the smaller quasi-conservative parties such as Reform UK, Reclaim, UKIP and Heritage, hard to say but probably no more than 20% altogether. Still, that notional 20% could be crucial.

Turnout is forecast to be low, not least because many usually Conservative voters seem to despise “Boris” and his misgovernment, and so, unwilling to vote Labour or even LibDem, may simply abstain.

My assessment? I think that the LibDems must have a chance, anyway.

The usual Conservative vote may not turn out (though many will have voted by post already), the overall turnout may be low (favouring other parties), the majority of voters in such a seat will never vote for post-2010 Labour, and the four smaller baby-con parties will tap votes which would otherwise go Con.

The LibDems are not quite as zealous about Covid “restrictions” and “measures” (such as the facemask nonsense) as are the present Government and its Labour “enablers”. That may help the LibDems.

The Conservative candidate is non-white (apparently half-English) in a 95% white English constituency, though that may be of only peripheral importance, looking at non-white “Conservative” MPs elsewhere. I had never heard of him until today but, reading about him, he seems to be very much a “head over heart” person; the voters may not warm to him.

There again, many people just want to give both the “Boris” circus and the Labour “enablers” (who have just saved the Government’s bacon yet again) a good kick. That has to favour the LibDems. Still, fairly open even now.

It will be interesting to see how misnamed “Labour” does, too. About 31% in 2017, but only 22% in 2019 (both times under Corbyn). Now, under “Covid” zealot Starmer? If Labour cannot get at least 20%, it will be significant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency).

[Update, 14 December 2022: well, the above analysis stood up pretty well: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election. In the event, the LibDem won “a famous victory” (famous for 5 or perhaps 15 minutes) with 47.2% of the vote (2019, 10%). The Con Party candidate crashed and burned (31.6%, down from 62.7% in 2019). Labour came in third, with a mere 9.7% (down from 22.1% in 2019)].

Tweets seen

So to get a peerage now, if you cannot donate a million to a System political party, you have to do noteworthy things such as…set up a charity or “good cause” which closes after a year or two with all its monies “gone” under suspicious circumstances, then fail to become either an MP or Mayor of London, and then…oh. that’s it, except that it helps to be black or brown these days.

[Update, 1 February 2024: Well, he was indeed made into a “plastic peer”, in the 1922 Resignation Honours List: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaun_Bailey,_Baron_Bailey_of_Paddington].

It has been a little while since antifa cheerleader Mike Stuchbery mentioned me on Twitter. Well, one “good turn” deserves another! https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/10/23/a-few-words-about-mike-stuchbery/.

At least Stuchbery has given up describing himself as “historian“. Now it is “journalist/content editor“…

A rigged contest between an incompetent government and the official opposition that is enabling most of that government’s dictatorial “Covid” laws and regulations.

I have blogged before about potential minority Labour governments which would depend on SNP support. Problem would be that the SNP would like another Independence referendum, or even actual Independence. The hypothetical minority Labour government could not of course grant the latter without a referendum. As to the former, the SNP would probably make the holding of such a referendum a sine qua non of any Commons support.

Were a Scottish Independence referendum to be held, and were the SNP to win a majority for breaking away from the UK, as soon as the break happened, there would be no SNP MPs at Westminster. That Labour government would then fall.

On the figures modelled, Labour could then govern with LibDem support, but recent elections have shown the Conservative Party far larger in the Commons than Labour. No SNP might mean no Labour government ever again. An interesting conundrum for Labour, if those modelled figures were to match electoral reality in the next 2-3 years.

More tweets

That Tom Harwood person is obviously a “slithey tove”, and careerist, who is quite knowingly “controlled opposition”.

Pretty sad that a government can use the Whittys and Fergusons to give faked “credibility” to their agenda —or rather the agenda of a transnational conspiracy of which “Boris” and his clowns are mere puppets— and then use scribblers and talking heads to spread the fake news.

Strange anomaly

For some reason, far more hits on the blog today than usual; several hundred, in fact. The other unusual statistic is that two-thirds today are apparently from Germany, which is very anomalous. There are usually a few hits from Germany, but not hundreds! Deutschland erwache!?

For those who may be interested, this blog usually gets about 80% of its hits from the UK; the rest come from all over the world, though most are from the USA, Australia, and a few other countries (France, Germany, Canada, and —oddly?— China are usually represented). I have had hits from almost every country, even places such as Burkina Faso, Paraguay, and (once only, I think!) Antarctica. Perhaps Adolf, emerging from an Antarctic opening from the hollow Earth (by submarine or flying saucer?), with devotees of the Welteislehre! Only joking…

Early evening music

Late tweets

The atomization of the population, and the sophisticated tools now in use for repressing any collective political or socio-political dissent, may lead to a wave of “lone wolves”, unless a proper social-national movement comes into existence soon. That possible wave of lone wolves would be a pity, because only a social-national movement can save us.

Just imagine…that could, and in fact would, be President of the USA if Biden were to snuff it while in office! Still, look at Biden himself. Come to that, who are we to talk, looking at Boris-idiot, Gove, and the rest of that pack of clowns?

I would compare these venal MPs to members of another old-established occupation, but at least those others give their customers pleasure, and/or a presumably required service, and at least the public does not end up footing the bill.

I did not know that, not that that matters, I not being a voter in North Shropshire.

I have a better and more just idea, but do not think that I can express it. I might add that I am surprised that Griffin, a Cambridge graduate, cannot spell the word restaurateur.

Already, Oxford is very different to what it was, not in the time of Zuleika Dobson, or that of Brideshead Revisited, but to what it was in the early 1960s.

I recall going once or twice with my mother in or about 1962 to some kind of Oxfam volunteer thing on, I think, a Saturday (we lived between Reading and Wallingford, so not hugely far from Oxford). I recall tables strewn with donated clothing in some kind of church hall or the like. People were sorting them, I think.

I do remember fairly empty roads, even in Oxford itself. I think we drove past the famous meadow track where the 4-minute-mile had been broken in 1954; my mother remarked on it. Anyway, the point is that the city and surroundings seemed uncrowded, quite different to the congested Oxford of today, where driving and especially parking is a nightmare.

Inflation 5%…not very long ago it was about 2.5%. Then we have the “proposal” to increase the pension age more rapidly than had been planned before the “panicdemic”.

Still think that “furlough” payments, and the rest of the “Covid” madness, came at no cost to the individual citizen? Think again…

Late music

Incidentally, the hall where that noble performance of Bruckner’s Ninth Symphony was recorded, on 7 October 1944, was destroyed by Allied bombing only weeks, or even days, later. There is now nothing left of the Beethoven-saal but a few stones and a couple of plaques. Wikipedia has the date of its destruction as 1 January 1944, which is probably a mistake (it may have been 1 January 1945).