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Talking point

Tweets seen

At a general election, that would translate to about 221 Reform UK seats (Lab 181, Con 121, LibDem 66 etc), so a Reform UK minority government, presumably reliant on Con

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

The more I think about it, the less I believe that any but a few will vote for the Con Party, especially now that it is headed by a Nigerian carpetbagger. Kemi Badenoch, “Carpetbagger Kemi”.

Most people, even after decades of brainwashing in schools, the msm etc, still want the UK Prime Minister to be properly British, i.e. white Northern European.

Seems that the “Conservatives” learned nothing from having been ruled by the little Indian money-juggler, Sunak.

Also, where do “Conservative” policies markedly differ from those of Starmer-Labour?

In any case, Britain, Europe, needs quality, not quantity.

…and tweeter “Elizabeth Chandler” should learn to spell before she tries to use big words to appear well-informed! (it’s “exponentially“, not “expidentialy“…).

See also:

Tweeter “J Kash MAGA Queen” does not know the half of it! See:

If under £100,000 p.a. I should be surprised.

Pseudo-“Conservative” greaseball Fraser Nelson is another total finance-capitalist, globalist, multikulti, puppet. One of the worst influences (and/or influencers) in the UK’s corrupt political and journalistic milieux.

Pro-Israel; pro-Jewish lobby as well.

Very interesting. The situation is far worse than I had thought. California— only 19%! Incredible.

See also:

I had not seen anything from that grifting loonie for a couple of years, as far as I can remember. She tweeted, earlier today, that anyone in the UK who did not (her word) “hate” Elon Musk had an IQ below room temperature. Well, while I myself do not agree with everything Musk says or does, I probably agree more than disagree, and my IQ was once (admittedly 40 years ago) measured at 156— I think that it probably stacks up well enough even today against that of grifting political idiot “Supertanskiii” (though one can almost admire someone who has made a living for years doing little but swearing online at “the Tories“, albeit that she has also been able to get State monies via the benefits system).

I have not heard so much from that kind of online pseudo-political “grifter” recently.

Fraudulent fake “cook”, “Jack Monroe”, has been comprehensively exposed and become obscure (I doubt that her rubbish ever appears in newspapers or major magazines any more); that Jewish fraud from Essex calling himself “Man Behaving Dadly”, Simon-something (Harris?), has apparently disappeared too, he having conned naive Essex County Council out of over £600,000.

Others have also seen their brief time of influence ebb away, such as non-practising medical doctor and facemask purveyor, Julia Grace Patterson. That one has now, it seems, almost given up trying to make money out of online “grifting”, and has not tweeted since November 2024, though she remains on the pathetic “Blue Sky” site, and has most recently (late 2024) been flogging Christmas cards online (while still pretending to be an active NHS doctor and health “activist”).

As I predicted a year ago, those sort of pseudo-political fake “activists” have found that their modus operandi of pretending to be tribunes of the people against the (admittedly) wicked “Tories” cuts little ice now that the said “Tories” have been replaced by a fake “Labour” government as bad as, or worse than, the “Conservatives” they replaced.

More tweets seen

“The British Tory party’s ‘realignment’, in 2019, was based on having 75% of Brexit/culturally conservative voters. Today? They only have 29%. This is what matters when you ignore your own voters. The Tories are dying –as I said they would.”

[Matt Goodwin]

The tipping point may have been reached for Reform UK, and also for the once-great Conservative Party. Only time will tell. It is natural for people to assume that large political organizations, states, religions etc go on for ever. Not so.

Having seen a bit of what happened in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when socialism died across Europe and elsewhere, I know that large structures can indeed collapse rather unexpectedly, albeit after long periods of slow preparatory weakness.

When you look at who votes or intends to vote Conservative now, you are really looking, mainly looking, at retired people or people close to retirement.

People who have seen Britain, certainly British cities and towns, turn from being white (i.e. British) to being largely black and brown (etc).

People who have seen large social and economic enterprises (water supply, railways, telephone system, bus network, Royal Mail etc), whatever faults they had, become often unresponsive and failing private-profit bodies.

People who have seen the great institutions of the State fail, and continue to fail, badly— police, courts, judges, legal system, prisons, NHS, border control, immigration control, Army, Navy, Air Force. Civil Service. Royal Family too. All useless, or rapidly becoming so.

What is the rotting head of that failure? The political system, Parliament, MPs, and the now-ludicrous House of Lords.

So when those people go to vote, how will they vote, those disenchanted, angry, let-down people, especially those aged 50+? Not for Labour, which (as I said on the blog for years) has become mainly the party of the “blacks and browns” and in general those dependent on the State for money and/or employment. Only the naive and fairly comfortably-off, in certain places, vote LibDem.

Conservative MPs mismanaged the UK for 14 years 2010-2025. Huge immigration, including the continuing “small boats” invasion. NHS failures. The “Covid” scamdemic/panicdemic. Much else besides.

The only reason many older people stuck with the Conservative Party was the State Pension “triple lock”. Then the little Indian money-juggler, Sunak, reneged on that (for one year), though he reinstated it the following year. I think that that badly damaged trust.

In my judgment, things are now so bad in the UK and, importantly, seen to be getting worse, and rapidly, that many are willing to leave their old habits and loyalties behind, and to vote Reform. By no means only former Con Party voters. Labour ones too. Look at the case of Lee Anderson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Anderson_(British_politician).

So who is really going to vote “Conservative” in 2028 or 2029? I should say mainly those who are old or very old, who are set in their ways and in their habitual loyalties and, of those, who are fairly comfortably-off in their retirement, and whose local areas have not (yet) been badly-affected by migration-invasion etc.

I do not think that msm commentators have quite factored-in the significance of the Con Party now having a non-white leader. Yes, not the first one, but then look at Sunak’s electoral meltdown.

I would have put that middle-aged/elderly Con-voting group, and or with others willing to vote Con, as adding up to somewhere around 20% of the voting population (General Election 2024— 23.7%) but now I am inclined to think that, by 2028/2029, it may be as low as 15%. On that basis, the Conservative Party may be at the end of the line.

Using Electoral Calculus, and with Con 15%, Labour 25%, LibDem 15%, Greens 10%, and Reform UK 30% (its likely maximum), that would result in a House of Commons with 330 Reform MPs, 163 Lab, 72 LibDem, 20 Con, 4 Green (etc). Reform Commons majority.

Were Reform to get a lesser vote (25%), the result would change to Reform 220, Lab 208, LibDem 76, Con 49 (etc). Still no comfort for the Con Party; only fourth party in Commons.

The Conservatives would have to get 20% overall even to stay where they now are (121 seats). I doubt they will do it.

More tweets

“At a record low of -54, the Labour government’s approval rating is virtually identical to the final approval rating of Rishi Sunak’s government, which was -56. Just before Sunak left office, 15% approved of his government. Currently, 14% approve of Labour. (Source: @YouGov)”

Late tweets seen

That tweeter is the ex-wife of an MP removed last year by the voters. For over three decades, she herself worked for him at Westminster, generously paid out of his Parliamentary expenses. She seems to be pro-immigration, pro-Israel, and anti-Russian, inter alia. Seems to be rather bitter in several ways. She is also wrong in most of her (evidently strongly-held) political judgments.

Certainly, so far as the Ukraine situation is concerned, Russia will not accept NATO forces there, even if under “peacekeeping” auspices. Anyway, contrary to that tweeter’s assertion, Russia need not accept any such forces. Russia is, slowly, winning, advancing daily in most parts of eastern Ukraine.

The war will conclude once Russia has occupied all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. Why then would Russia accept “peacekeepers” who would be NATO troops under another label? Not the USA? Not the very weak UK. Not Germany. Once Macron stops trying to grandstand as a latter-day Napoleon, not France, either.

I do agree, overall, with the tweeter mentioned, though, about the CCHQ tweet below:

“Culture” or society does matter, in my view, but very few will look at Kemi Badenoch and think “now that’s the kind of person who should be Prime Minister“…

As mentioned on the blog earlier today, I can see the Conservative Party ending up with 10, 20, 30 MPs a few years down the line.

Senator van Hollen obviously has no idea how Roosevelt ripped off the British Empire in various ways, not least by turning the Caribbean, at the time (pre-1941) pretty much a British lake, into what it later became and still is, basically an American sphere of influence, albeit nominally in co-operation with the UK.

The USA also took over, steadily, but after WW2, much of British industry and commerce internationally.

Interesting. That is not the old Soviet Embassy in Washington. They must have moved at some point since 1991.

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