A few thoughts out of season

I read a couple of pieces in the online-only Independent newspaper and its connected Indy100 site. Semi-literate, semi-educated. Examples? In the Independent, in an interview with the ex-MP, Mike Amesbury, Amesbury described the three days he recently spent in prison as “…surreal…like an out-of-body experience“, which the Independent‘s scribbler, one Ellie Crabbe, wrote down as “an outer body experience“. No sub-editor (if they even have any) corrected Ms. Crabbe’s egregious mistake. Appalling ignorance. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/reform-labour-amesbury-runcorn-chancellor-b2745519.html.

Meanwhile, in the Indy100, one Harriet Brewis, described as “ the Chief Reporter at indy100, covering everything from scientific discoveries to online trends. She previously worked on the Evening Standard’s news desk, heading up the coronavirus blog throughout 2020 and writing the website’s leading stories“, writes that a lake in California has returned after long absence, the water having been extracted by “the greed of colonialists“! Ha ha… Is this an English news outlet, or a Cuban one?

The water extraction was in the USA of the late 19thC, as the article does say, so “colonialists” is a bit anachronistic, arguably, and not really accurate anyway, however bad the treatment of the local Indians/Native Americans may have been.

I might add that that report was published somewhere else a year or two ago. I recall reading it, or some version of it.

Ah, I see now that it was first published a year ago. Well, OK, and it is quite interesting, but do subscribers (I am not one) pay to read stuff recycled from over a year ago? https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/tulare-lake-2024-2671911762.

Standards in all areas are, overall and collectively, dropping like a stone, as I noticed and/or predicted many many years ago, in the 1990s.

Talking point— the decline of the Conservative Party

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/07/massive-earthquake-in-politics-could-lead-to-tory-extinction-says-hunt

“Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the Conservatives cannot rule out becoming extinct because of a “massive earthquake” in politics that is seeing the fracturing of the old two-party system.

Senior Conservatives are increasingly alarmed about polls that show support for the party plummeting, while Reform UK is soaring.

Some Conservative party sources said there appeared to be “very little dynamism” within Conservative Campaign Headquarters about trying to turn the party’s electoral fortunes around, while many local activists and some agents have already made the leap to supporting Reform.

On Wednesday morning, a YouGov Westminster voting intention poll put Reform on 29%, Labour on 22%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats 16%, and the Greens 10% – suggesting the Tories are now flirting with fourth place in popularity.“

[Guardian]

In fact, the Conservative Party may well soon be in fifth place in terms of numbers of Commons seats (after Reform, Labour, LibDems, and the SNP).

Talking point— the decline of the Labour Party

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/07/disability-benefit-cuts-to-hit-700000-families-already-in-poverty-dwp-forecasts-show

“The government’s planned disability benefit cuts will hit 700,000 families who are already in poverty, according to internal Department for Work and Pensions forecasts obtained by the Guardian.

The figures, sourced under the Freedom of Information Act, are in addition to the projected 250,000 people who will be newly driven below the poverty line by the cuts, as set out by the government’s impact assessment in March.

Disability rights campaigners called the new disclosure “truly shocking” and said the changes would push people even further away from having the means to find work.

The DWP estimates that 3.2 million families across Great Britain will lose out under the plans in 2029/2030, about three years after the cuts are due to take effect. Of those, 700,000 will be families already categorised as being in relative poverty, when taking housing costs into account.“

[Guardian]

So that is some of the human and social cost of the policies of Starmer-stein, Rachel Reeves, and Liz Kendall (all members, incidentally, of Labour Friends of Israel). What, however of the political cost to Labour?

We see Labour already languishing in the opinion polls below 25%, in some at only 22%. I have already blogged about the fact that the UK population now has about 20% of its population non-white, and that those voters (those eligible and actually voting) probably now provide the vast bulk of Labour votes.

Since Starmer-stein lied his way to the office of Prime Minister in July 2024, his misgovernment has alienated the “average white families”, those above State Pension age, those approaching State Pension age, almost all British workers at or below average incomes, anyone concerned about the racial and cultural degradation of the country, anyone concerned about developers trashing the green countryside, and anyone at all concerned about the migration-invasion of between half a million and a million immigrants and/or invaders every single year.

Now, in addition to the above, Starmer-stein’s regime is about to hit not only the various types of disabled person, but also their families and others. The biggest hit will come in 2028 and 2029, just when the next general election is probably going to be held.

The result of all of that is that Labour will quite likely have (a trend forecast on the blog quite a while ago, a few years ago) votes mainly from (some of) the “blacks and browns”, and (some of) the public service workers, including (some of) the NHS workforce. Even the 18-24 demographic generally is turning away from Labour.

The electoral result may be that Labour can only score 22%, maybe only 20%, at the next general election. The Conservative Party, on present showing, may not even achieve that. The LibDems are the default “alternative” or “dustbin party”, so will pick up votes from both, but mainly from disaffected Con voters; perhaps 15% or so overall. Greens and several others will take (combined) about 10%-15% of votes. That leaves maybe 30% of the whole available for Reform.

Nature abhors a vacuum. If Reform gets to 30%, with Con and Lab both in the 20%-25% range, the earthquake will have happened. Reform will be in government with a 30 or even 50-seat majority, Labour may have fewer than 140 MPs, and the Con Party may slump to as few as 25.

Once the main System parties are displaced, the only real alternative to Reform, after 2029, will be real social nationalism.

Tweets seen

So less money for the Treasury (which means it will have to be found from elsewhere), and more unwanted immigrants coming to the UK (and don’t believe the nonsense about “short-term working” etc…).

The Starmer-stein and Rachel Reeves fake “Labour” government is a disaster in every way.

Under the surface, its attitude is probably unchanged. Snoopers.

As blogged previously Matt Goodwin may be a Father Gapon for our times…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Gapon#Bloody_Sunday

The above nonsense is only part of huge wastage. The “Covid” scamdemic/panicdemic “Test and Trace” programme alone was 4x worse. About £38 billion. I favour government spending, in principle, but the devil is in the detail. The kind of idiots who get into System politics in the UK are simply not capable of running anything properly, or of making the right decisions.

Mason has been examined previously on the blog. A System asset of some kind or other, but one who, for whatever reason, likes to be thought of as radical or even revolutionary. He always supports police-state measures; he did it during the “Covid” scamdemic/panicdemic, he did so when the BNP was rising up, he even did so when UKIP looked like becoming a major party. He certainly did so in relation to Greece, when the popular Golden Dawn social-national party was repressed by the fake “Left” or “socialist” party, Syriza, when the latter was in power. Syriza quickly sold out to international banking and the EU. The Golden Dawn people, many of them, still sit in prison.

There is something deeply unpleasant about Paul Mason. Deeply suspicious, too. Look at his Twitter/X timeline over the past few days. Incidentally, he is part-Jew: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Mason_(journalist)#Early_life_and_education.

What interests me more, though, is the revolution after the revolution…

Late tweets

Electoral Calculus suggests that those numbers would result in a Commons in which Reform would have 421 seats out of 650. Labour would have 92, the LibDems 56, the SNP 43, and the Cons only 8. Eight MPs… Surely terminal for the Conservative Party. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html.