Whether the moratorium on strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities will be extended or not depends on Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS:https://t.co/wTDmR5CDsrpic.twitter.com/51f2pzmUyx
Uncontrolled development of artificial intelligence in the United States could result in tragic consequences and may turn into a catastrophe for all humanity, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told TASS:https://t.co/YiV0QykF3bpic.twitter.com/L098ropq8I
Soft coup in the army of the Israel: mass protest of the Air Force and Navy officers of the Israel army!
Journalists and analysts from Israeli TV channels report: The letter from pilots and naval officers demanding an end to the war has caused a real storm. Refusal to serve… pic.twitter.com/p1kQE2Ucv0
[“Soft coup in the army of the Israel: mass protest of the Air Force and Navy officers of the Israel army! Journalists and analysts from Israeli TV channels report: The letter from pilots and naval officers demanding an end to the war has caused a real storm. Refusal to serve becomes a strategic threat. The dismissal of thousands of military personnel would be a grave mistake! At the same time, none of the goals of the war have been achieved yet, and everything that is happening is turning into a huge snowball, capable of developing into an avalanche.”]
NEW POST.
I’ve just returned to Britain from Hungary, where I spent a few days giving talks to students, politicians, and members of the public.
Whenever you mention Hungary among a certain group in London —think SW1 Westminster, the BBC, Financial Times, Oxbridge—people tend…
[“NEW POST. I’ve just returned to Britain from Hungary, where I spent a few days giving talks to students, politicians, and members of the public. Whenever you mention Hungary among a certain group in London —think SW1 Westminster, the BBC, Financial Times, Oxbridge—people tend to lose their minds. ‘Hungary!?’ they say, ‘you mean that rather odd country in Eastern Europe that’s very conservative and falling out with everybody in the European Union!?” I first experienced this reaction last summer when, amid the Southport atrocities, I dared to point out that the country I was visiting and which Western elites like to criticise —a very stable, a very secure, and a very peaceful Hungary—looked utterly different to the country I was returning to. Because unlike Hungary, Britain was on fire. Widespread rioting and protests after the Southport atrocity had become an unavoidable symbol of intense public concern about things that are only significant in Hungary because they are absent —mass uncontrolled immigration, broken borders, radical Islamism, Pakistani Muslim rape gangs, and the murder of children by the descendants of recent immigrants. Nonetheless, my mere suggestion that perhaps Hungary has got some things right that Britain has got badly wrong generated an incredibly hostile response from British elites, reflecting an arrogance and snobbishness that is rife among that class. Indeed, for much of the last fifteen years there’s been an assumption among elites in Britain that something has gone ‘badly wrong’ with Hungary. But based on what I witnessed and was asked at events last week, I’m here to tell you that the opposite is true. Because as far as many Hungarians are concerned, it is Britain, it is England, it is us, who got things badly wrong, who made a series of disastrous policy choices they are determined to avoid, and who are, in the words of one person I encountered, “losing our country”.”]
I certainly enjoyed my week or so in Hungary (about 24 years ago), when I stayed for about 3 days at Szeged (having driven from Turkey through Bulgaria and Romania) and then about 4 days by Lake Balaton.
Bonkers Britain just peaked with the sight of Uniparty politicians congratulating themselves after selling off our national assets to Chinese communists who ran them into the ground, leaving us on the brink of becoming the only G7 nation that cannot make its own steel while also…
“British Steel”…ha ha. 3,000 employees. In 1971, it had 200,000.
“Sometimes, when all you know is decline you become desensitised to it. The abnormal becomes normal. The extreme becomes ordinary. The once unacceptable gradually becomes acceptable” https://t.co/DU08i1nwmA
[“Out with it!” (rest of the caption regretfully redacted by reason of the repression on free speech now in force in England…)]
More than 8,000 illegal migrants have now crossed into Britain on the small boats this year, up nearly 50% on last year, including more than 650 yesterday —the largest number this year. And it’s not even summer …
BREAK: Gambling Commission has charged 15 people (including ex Tory MP Craig Williams) with offences under the Gambling Act 2005. pic.twitter.com/eXzrrADlW7
Remember Fiona Hill? She’s now sounding the alarm again: “We’re definitely on a path toward full-on state repression. There’s no question about it. I’ve thought about this for an extraordinarily long time.” When Fiona speaks, we should all listen. pic.twitter.com/Y2jnxXbd2G
Talking about the USA, but it is at least as true here in the UK…
Trump has fully turned on Zelenskyy: "He's always looking to purchase missiles. Listen, when you start a war, you gotta know you can win a war. You don't start a war against somebody that's 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles." pic.twitter.com/1hBWeyu2hg
Germany must accept fewer than 100,000 asylum seekers a year because its public services are overwhelmed by immigrants, the new chancellor has said. Still an enormous number though …
The Israeli army destroys the statue of Saint George in the town of Yaroun, southern Lebanon—a sacred religious symbol for Christians. pic.twitter.com/9iDzM0UlRT
▪️The heads of the largest European companies have begun discussing what was "unthinkable a year ago" – the import of a certain amount of Russian gas, including the conclusion of new contracts with Gazprom, according to Reuters. pic.twitter.com/DTiHQfUn8i
Russian forces struck Ukrainian army personnel and foreign mercenaries in 137 areas over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported:https://t.co/23cgsJMC84pic.twitter.com/qZmSxEmcDw
If the worst happens, this is the team who make the declaration as to whether the UK mainland is under a missile attack
🔴 In a rare tour of the early-warning radar at RAF Fylingdales, @robhastings witnesses the crew complete a very realistic training exercise pic.twitter.com/ft50cJJn9e
In any case, were there ever a real military attack from (presumably) Russia (a conflict with which would be mad from the UK point of view— it would finish this country forever, probably), one of the first places to be attacked and eliminated (possibly by Spetsnaz attack, prior to the launch of any missile) would be Fylingdales itself.
On the wider aspects, while those working in such establishments may be fed the line that they are protecting the UK from attack and/or invasion, the reality is that the UK society those soldiers think they are protecting is decaying from within, and being invaded daily by literally thousands of migrant-invaders, both “legally” and “illegally”, and by births to non-white mothers within the UK.
UK society is changing, and being poisoned, before our very eyes.
Translation: what, really, are they protecting?
The euro is above 1.14, trading at its highest level in over three years. The dollar has lost 5.5% of its value against the euro since Liberation Day. That means buying European imports will now cost Americans 15.5% more. 10% for the tariffs and 5.5% due to dollar depreciation.
…meaning that only the wealthier Americans will be buying imports from the EU (that is largely the case anyway, of course).
In response to the protectionist measures of the US administration, China is boosting duties on US goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, the Tariff Committee of the State Council of China announced:https://t.co/Ttzj07CVAqpic.twitter.com/VrBCNMrTPc
Europe must begin injecting gas into its underground storage facilities as soon as possible and ensure sufficiently large supplies of LNG to the region in order to avoid depleting its reserves by next winter, according to a report by the ENTSOG:https://t.co/iuKJw3kXdQpic.twitter.com/2DIxbaFqME
More than 6,000 illegal migrants have entered Britain this year on the small boats. Guess how many have been convicted of illegally piloting the small boats?
We need a great deal more than that but, in our emergent police state, I am “not allowed” to spell out what is needed.
Is immigration good for Britain? Next month I’m debating pro-immigration fanatic Jonathan Portes and campaigner Zoe Gardner at this How to Academy debate. I’ve just sent a discount code to our subscribershttps://t.co/n6o7EFXHUW
What is the point in “debating” with the enemies of the British people? Portes is of course a “(((youknowwho)))”, and I suspect (but concede that I do not know) that Zoe Gardner (@ZoeJardiniere on Twitter/X) is similar.
Translator's reaction when Trump said: "The US and Italy have been allies since Ancient Rome (four thousand years ago)"! pic.twitter.com/gFOeeTkVpX
The usual pathetic “honours” nonsense. Deadhead MPs, or ex-MPs, cronies and political donors, and a few sports people I have never even heard of, the latter to keep the plebs happy while society implodes around their little Sky Sports bubble.
I'm old enough to remember Michael Gove turning up at work to vote completely off his face.
Conservative Friends of Israel drone Gove, drunk and on cocaine at Westminster. A total enemy of the people; he should be punished, not rewarded.
One of the 5 tweets that (after the Jewish lobby pushed for it) got me disbarred in 2016 was that calling Gove a snivelling expenses cheat in hock to the Jewish/Israel lobby. True facts. I (like most people) was unaware at that time (around 2012) that Gove was also both a drunk and a cocaine abuser.
Another of those 5 tweets was that calling Nicolas Sarkozy a corrupt little Jew. I was partly wrong there (he is only a half-Jew). Sarkozy has of course now been found guilty in a French court of corruption, alongside other Jews.
All my famous or (according to the Jewish lobby) infamous “5 tweets” (posted online between 2010 and 2014) have now been proven to have been true in almost every particular.
Incidentally, in more recent years, the Bar Standards Board wrote to me inviting me to have the disbarment annulled and a “rehearing” take place, mainly because I should never have been tried by a 5-person panel but only by a 3-person panel (which would have had no power to disbar), but I declined, partly because I was already well over 60 and unlikely to resume Bar practice, partly to show my contempt for the Bar (which is now a craven, multikulti dustbin afraid of its own shadow and especially the shadow of the Jewish/Israel lobby).
In other words, had I taken up that suggestion, I should by now have been reinstated as both barrister and —perhaps more useful to me— as a member of Lincoln’s Inn (a pleasant place for a lunch or dinner when in London). Still, I have no regrets, none of importance anyway.
More music
More tweets
Fucked up the numbers with Cleverly didn’t he and thank GOD. What on earth was he doing backing a man whose catastrophic choices cost him and so many of us jobs.
No need to be puzzled. Gove— Israel lobby servant; Shapps, a Jew-Zionist also totally tied in with the Israel lobby. Probably the rest too. Join the dots.
First casualty in the Ukrainian military program "18–24"
The first confirmed death has been recorded among those who signed up for Ukraine's controversial "18-24" program, which allows young adults to enlist in the military. pic.twitter.com/RnPclXYmuY
Veronika, a 22/23-y-o Ukrainian woman. What was she doing anywhere near the frontlines of a harsh and bitter war? This is uncivilized.
Also, baselines used to be about losing life, liberty or other equally important parameters – stress, comfort, and inconvenience being used as legitimate excuses debunks and demeans the entire system.
Britain is now the first Western country to have a white minority in its major cities: London is 37% white
A story by British Reform Party leader Farage is going viral in France, which, along with Sweden, is vying to soon become the second such Western country. pic.twitter.com/53qYTZInqZ
It follows that, to maintain white Northern European civilization, the notion of “one man one vote” pseudo-democracy has to be abandoned until such time as Europe is once again fully European.
Voting alone, ordinary political activity alone, cannot now save us.
European countries have already allocated more than 23 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine this year. pic.twitter.com/36nYtT5PgE
Starmer-stein has just today sent another £450M of British people’s money to the Jew-Zionist dictatorship in Kiev, monies that should be spent on British hospitals, schools, roads, rail services etc.
Verhovna RADA will continue mobilization and state of emergency in Ukraine – Stefanchuk pic.twitter.com/AuUcRa3bCZ
The death toll from Israel’s strike on the Shujaiya neighborhood on the outskirts of Gaza City has risen to 35, with dozens reported missing, the Qatari-based Al Jazeera television channel reported:https://t.co/V8xXmfrBv8pic.twitter.com/AP6omKDOrB
Not (yet) quite the view I have been putting on the blog for the past three years, i.e. Russia to take all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, as well as a wide coastal strip from the Dnieper as far as a point west of Odessa. Kiev and Odessa to be free cities (either autonomous or jointly-controlled). The rest of Ukraine west of the Dnieper to be ruled by a Ukrainian administration based in Lvov.
I think that the above formulation by me would be fair, and could form the basis for a lasting, if not very friendly, peace.
The Kellogg plan is frankly not as good as mine. It involves British and French forces effectively working with those of the Kiev regime on the ground, and has every likelihood of entangling the Western forces in conflict with Russia, directly.
Russia will never accept that plan anyway.
In any case, from the British point of view, why should we be involved at all? Ukraine has only been a supposed state for 34 years, and Britain has no historical connection with Ukraine, nor any national interest in getting directly involved.
The bottom line, though, is that Russia will never accept such a plan.
The scamdemic/panicdemic is still accepted by many as something real, rather than a massive hoax which basically temporarily reclassified influenza as “Covid”, and then pretended that a kind of Black Death was stalking Europe, thus opening up (as the WEF —World Economic Forum— crowed at the time) an opportunity for a “Great Reset” of society, including strict controls on free speech, travel etc.
The propaganda around “Covid” bit deep. I still see, years later, the odd loonie wearing the useless cloth facemasks once mandated by ill-intentioned bureaucrats and plotters (such as the infamous Professor Ferguson).
In fact, in the past few weeks, I have seen four such facemask loonies, one a pink-haired, fat, and youngish (twenties/thirties?) woman employee at a Tesco supermarket about 5 miles from my home, a second one also a Tesco employee, though without the coloured hair; the others two very elderly women shopping at the same store.
More tweets
China has begun to devalue. Moves are still small, but this is clearly a signal to Washington. After all, the Dollar has been falling, so – if anything – the Yuan should be rising against the Dollar to remain stable in trade-weighted terms. But it's falling and that's a signal… pic.twitter.com/txgaMaiuaX
The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2025 delivery has dropped below $64 per barrel on London's ICE for the first time since April 26, 2021, according to trading data:https://t.co/ak5iYVf2hNpic.twitter.com/RpAAflS7Ia
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 6, 2025
An official representative of the Ukrainian Air Force said that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to intercept Russian missiles and drones, as they are constantly being modernized. pic.twitter.com/vXUimByho5
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 6, 2025
Dmitriev: It is possible that the American deep state is attempting a color revolution against Trump
AROUND 1,200 ANTI-TRUMP DEMONSTRATIONS IN ALL 50 AMERICAN STATES
The protests were organized under the slogan "Hands Off" and were directed against Trump's "comprehensive… pic.twitter.com/XAP598lulJ
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 6, 2025
Some but not all of the preconditions for a second American civil war are in place.
Kemi Badenoch's defence of Israel's shameful detention and deportation of British MPs is just the latest example of a politician whose real loyalties lie elsewherehttps://t.co/PvSUGRFwkt
Kemi Badenoch may have a British passport but is not really British; she is a Nigerian. Her mother deliberately had her in London so that she, Kemi, would be “entitled” to a British passport (and have the “right” of residence in the UK). Kemi Badenoch was brought up in the USA and Nigeria and did not return to the UK until she was at least 16.
Kemi Badenoch is an African with very shallow roots in the UK, is a puppet of the Jewish/Israel lobby, and believes that only those with significant money should have any rights. Bin her.
Not my opinion alone (though it would not concern me if it were). Opinion polls now have the “Conservative” Party around 20%, which (as far as I know) is the lowest level of support ever.
There is every chance that, in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election (1 May 2025), the Con Party will end up in 3rd, possibly 4th, or even 5th place (after Reform UK, Labour, LibDem, and possibly Greens).
Of course the two MPs deported from Israel are also not really British…
ECONOMY – A tale of 2 countries.
▪️India hits 1 billion tons of coal production. GDP growth: 6.5%.
The problem British voters have is that all three main System parties (LibLabCon) are basically enemies of the people, all complicit.
The dog, sensing that her owner is about to have an epileptic seizure, first makes her owner sit on the floor, then gets water from the cupboard, finds her medicine and gives it to her, then makes her owner lie on the floor.❤️ pic.twitter.com/B1vrwe4uHQ
The situation on the global oil market is extremely turbulent, which is related to the US’ decision to impose tariffs on the majority of countries, Dmitry Peskov said, adding that the Russian authorities are keeping a close eye on it:https://t.co/5ozgpWG2vupic.twitter.com/YBptNlaD2G
The Russian economy is demonstrating solid growth rates, being attractive to investors, especially Western ones, Russian Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov said:https://t.co/Cos0jIqiBtpic.twitter.com/AwescPkuyq
Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for present but also for past." pic.twitter.com/q1f3N5ebMz
Still, this may be the chance Europe needs. If Europe as a whole forms a better and more friendly relationship with Russia, and distances the USA (and China) somewhat, it would be to the advantage of both Europe and Russia.
Sometimes things are seen more clearly from outside, from a distance.
Good evening. We are 71% of the way to our £5,000 target. Again, I intend to seek a vexatious litigant order against Stephanie Hayden which, if granted, should stop him suing anyone else in the future. My legal team tell me there's a high chance of getting one.…
Not sure of the facts of that matter, but “Legal Gengar” has done sterling work exposing fraudulent “grifters” such as “Jack Monroe” (Melissa Hadjicostas) and the Jew, Simon Harris (aka “Man Behaving Dadly” etc).
Talking point
“For the Jews require a sign, and the Greeks seek after wisdom: But we preach Christ crucified, unto the Jews a stumbling block, and unto the Greeks foolishness.”
[1 Corinthians 1:22-23, King James Authorized Version]
EXCL: One of the Tories’ biggest donors has stopped funding the party in a move insiders believe will result in the closure of its northern HQ – @elenicourea reveals https://t.co/0vAx5zFOjc
Until now Populism has been a primarily right-wing phenomenon. But after the insanity of the past couple of months a door is now being opened for left-wing populism. Trump is destroying the settled capitalist consensus. And it’s not going to take much for someone to fill the gap.
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 7, 2025
You’re hearing the first howl of a dire wolf in over 10,000 years
Back from extinction
using ancient DNA from fossils up to 72,000 years old, Colossal reconstructed a full genome , through precise CRISPR edits, and brought this species to life pic.twitter.com/jMVtnKtT9m
This week, another victory over political journalist John Rentoul. He scored 2/10, but I trumped that with 4/10. I knew the answers to questions 4, 5, 8, and 10. In the back of my mind, I might have got a few more, but there it is.
"It's going to backfire because across the Western world, the elite class today namely, the ruling class that dominates the institutions that is trying to impose a political project which really only represents 10-15% of Western populations"https://t.co/bOzkd81OUr
"Since Keir Starmer and Labour came to power last July, nearly 30,000 illegal migrants have arrived on some 542 small boats.
That’s an average of 780 migrants every week under Keir Starmer, compared to 570 under Rishi Sunak and 400 under Boris Johnson."https://t.co/RMvY4Onmhx
Not forgetting that “legal” immigration is about 20x those figures anyway.
On the left is Lucy Connolly, a mother who wrote an offensive social media post she later deleted. For this crime she was given 2 years and 7 months in prison.
On the right is Mohammed Abbkr, he sprayed petrol on 2 people and set them on fire, his punishment? A hospital order… pic.twitter.com/cEImjm2LbC
🚨 BRITAIN JUST JAILED A WOMAN FOR A TWEET 🚨 31 MONTHS. For words online. Lucy Connolly — sentenced to nearly 3 years in prison Not for violence. Not for theft. But for a social media post deemed offensive.
📢 This isn’t justice. It’s ideological punishment.
[“In a country where repeat criminals walk free… Where grooming gangs evade charges… One woman is thrown behind bars for speech. “Her injustice shames Britain.” — The Telegraph
This isn’t about protecting society. It’s about silencing dissent and enforcing obedience. If a tweet can cost you your freedom, You don’t live in a democracy — you live under tyranny. https://telegraph.co.uk/gift/0cc779aa15c20c03“]
Lucy Connolly is a political prisoner. Not in Russia. Here in the UK. Denied bail, given a horribly harsh sentence for a tweet, prison governors now deny Lucy her right to prison leave. Free Lucy! 💔 https://t.co/jYXCJ4Y9Go
Of course, Allison Pearson might be listened to more if she ditched her apparent support for the evil and malicious “Campaign Against Antisemitism” (“CAA”), a volunteer arm of the Israeli Embassy, in effect, and which is the worst anti-free-speech org in the country (see my own experiences, detailed above).
Lucy Connolly's appeal isn't until the 15th of May, 10 months after her tweet, remind me how quickly the former Labour MP @MikeAmesburyMP , who beat the shit out of a constituent and was only jailed for 10 weeks, took to get an appeal.
That brought to mind another Lucy— Lucy Letby. I have never claimed that Lucy Letby is either innocent or guilty of the crimes wherewith she was charged. I do not know, and have not much followed the case in any detail.
However, I did say on the blog, after she was convicted, that she seemed (from what little I had read in the msm) to have been found guilty on the basis of rather loose circumstantial evidence (which is not necessarily wrong, if that evidence is or was sufficiently probative).
Now I note that some fairly weighty opinions are saying that Lucy Letby might seriously be not only victim of a miscarriage of justice but actually innocent. I neither agree nor disagree. I have not looked at the matter in anything like enough detail. However, there lurks a feeling that, maybe, she is in prison without having actually done the crime(s).
The underlying reality is that the NHS is now largely a skeleton service, and those always loudly supporting it on ideological grounds, no matter what it does wrong, or fails to do right, are not serving either the NHS or the British public.
In any case, there is really very little difference between what Starmer-stein, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall etc are doing and what the “Conservative” governments since 2010 did.
Yet another (ex-) MP who has never had a non-political job. A System drone.
Trade and economic relations between Russia and the United States are currently virtually nonexistent, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a question from TASS at a briefing:https://t.co/xP3uUpBsJHpic.twitter.com/9qZ1XhYCGD
So Russia is immune from both tariffs and (U.S.) sanctions…
Ukrainian forces lost up to 430 personnel in the Battlegroup Center’s responsibility area in a day, the group's press center chief, Alexander Savchuk, told reporters:https://t.co/YTCSdRdLulpic.twitter.com/ASXKVh00La
Israel is at its current form a terrorist state. The IDF is a terrorist organization. pic.twitter.com/UVEusA6bOh
— Melanie Schweizer 🇩🇪 (@Melaniebelizi) April 5, 2025
The Jew-Zionist organizations in the UK are supporters of Israeli policy, Israeli terrorism and Israeli war crimes.
[Rafah, Gaza, before and after the Israeli Jews repeatedly attacked it; an Israeli war crime, Biblical in its scale]
Markets tank for a second straight day and even some allies of the president are expressing concerns, and hearing from voters. pic.twitter.com/C9VdCxV3o5
For the first time, I can see (as serious likelihood rather than a mere possibility) a socio-political war breaking out in the USA somewhere not far down the line.
“She lived 3,500 years ago – but facial reconstruction technology has brought a woman from late bronze age Mycenae back to life.
[“The digital reconstruction of a bronze age Mycenae woman. Photograph: Juanjo Ortega G.”]
The woman was in her mid-30s when she was buried in a royal cemetery between the 16th and 17th centuries BC. The site was uncovered in the 1950s on the Greek mainland at Mycenae, the legendary seat of Homer’s King Agamemnon.
Dr Emily Hauser, the historian who commissioned the digital reconstruction, told the Observer: “She’s incredibly modern. She took my breath away.
“For the first time, we are looking into the face of a woman from a kingdom associated with Helen of Troy – Helen’s sister, Clytemnestra, was queen of Mycenae in legend – and from where the poet Homer imagined the Greeks of the Trojan war setting out. Such digital reconstructions persuade us that these were real people.”
[13th-century BC fresco from Mycenae. Photograph: Peter Eastland/Alamy]
Hauser, a senior lecturer in classics and ancient history at the University of Exeter, said: “It is incredibly exciting to think that, for the first time since she was laid beneath the ground over 3,500 years ago, we are able to gaze into the actual face of a bronze age royal woman – and it truly is a face to launch a thousand ships.
“This woman died around the beginning of the late bronze age, several hundred years before the supposed date of the Trojan war.”
A digital artist, Juanjo Ortega G, has developed the lifelike face from a clay reconstruction of the same woman that was made in the 1980s by Manchester University, pioneers of one of the major methods in facial reconstruction.“
[The Guardian]
…and, surprise surprise, she was not black, not even brown…
Remember the “woke” fakery around “Cheddar Man” a decade ago, and the (later disproven) claim that he was (and so ancient Britons generally were) of “black” race? Or the assertions by Mary Beard and others that some of the Roman soldiers in Britain were “black”?
At least no-one has tried to impose more such ideologically-driven fakery on this new material.
European cultures, and civilization— the product of the white man (and woman).
“A man who gouged out an 87-year-old pensioner’s eye and beat him to death with his own walking stick has been locked up indefinitely.
Sekai Miles, 23, subjected Bernard Fowler to a “brutal” random attack outside Harold Wood station in east London early on February 27 last year.
Having targeted his eyes, Miles also hit Mr Fowler over the head 19 times with his walking stick and stamped on his head eight times, the Old Bailey heard on Friday.
Retired mechanic Mr Fowler had gone to the station that day to pick up free newspapers for the community.”
[defendant]
Wall. Squad. End.
Do you imagine that untermenschen of that type can create, or even maintain, a civilized society? No. They cannot even live in one.
More tweets seen
A fencer’s brave protest against men in women’s sports has gone viral. Stephanie Turner refused to face a male opponent who had fought in both men and women’s tournaments simultaneously. ‘Trans inclusion’ makes a mockery of fairness, says Jo Bartosch https://t.co/cyj2YkQ8aD
“Norris has a particular interest in child safety and regularly campaigns against child sexual abuse,[11] having co-written a free booklet on its prevention.“
"Long live Palestine, long live Azzam , long live Yemen, long live Puerto Rico "
A Mexican activist used a hammer to smash a wax statue of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a wax museum in Mexico City after dousing it with red paint. pic.twitter.com/uVpom3XFRF
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 4, 2025
Construction of the world's tallest bridge is nearing completion in China.
It passes through the Huajiang Grand Canyon and will soon reduce the time it takes to cross the gorge from 70 minutes to 1 minute; opening is scheduled for June 2025.
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 5, 2025
Good grief. There is much to dislike about China, in particular its disregard for animal welfare, but one cannot ignore its achievements, especially in engineering.
CDU/CSU rating falls to 24% (-2), while AfD rating rises to 24% (+1) – for the first time in history, these leading parties are on par, BILD laments pic.twitter.com/o8a7YT0e7P
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 5, 2025
As a result, System parties in Germany want to ban the AfD. Germany is a fake democracy at best.
Quite. Look at the Allison Pearson case. Oh, wasn’t she shocked when the police came to her door and questioned her about a few online comments. Yes, shocked. She put all her outrage in her next newspaper column scribblings, and the “usual suspects” in the “free speech” milieu all formed up to march behind her— Toby Young, the “Free Speech Union” he put together, the Spectator, the Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mail etc.
As a matter of fact, I myself think that the police behaved outrageously in that instance.
Where, though, was Allison Pearson when others suffered from similar or worse behaviour at the hands of the police and those behind the police, and indeed Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), who have wormed their way into positions of influence, sometimes having suborned those stupid “elected” Police and Crime Commissioners brought in a decade ago by David Cameron-Levita.
Much of such backstairs manipulation can be lain at the door of the very malicious Jew-Zionist org known as the “Campaign Against Antisemitism” or “CAA”, a pro-Israel pressure group (effectively a volunteer arm of the Israeli Embassy in London) whose self-styled “Director of Investigations and Enforcement”…well, let’s just call him “Slitherman”…is not infrequently to be found broadcasting his lies and propaganda on the “usually, no-one watches” Talk TV and GB News and even, sometimes, on Sky News.
At the foot of this part of the blog can be found a few blog articles detailing some of my own experiences. First, though, let us look at Allison Pearson’s [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allison_Pearson] experience.
[“In November 2024, Pearson was visited at home by Essex Police asking her to undergo a voluntary interview after a complaint that she had incited racial hatred with a tweet posted in November 2023. During a period of scrutiny on British policing of pro-Palestinian protests during the Gaza war, Pearson had posted a photo of Greater Manchester Police officers standing besides supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan‘s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party waving the party’s flag. However, despite the flag including the word “Pakistan”, she called the flagbearers “Jew haters” and misidentified the officers as Metropolitan Police officers, citing an incident where that service had not met with an Israeli-advocacy group. These errors were corrected by a Community Note and Pearson deleted the tweet.[15][16]
After the visit, Pearson wrote a Telegraph column criticising the incident and saying that the police had said it was a non-crime hate incident. Essex Police reported The Daily Telegraph to the Independent Press Standards Organisation, saying that it had body camera footage proving that they had never said it was a non-crime hate incident.[15][16]
You see from that Wikipedia article that Allison Pearson criticized people as “Jew-haters“. She herself is not Jew, or even (as far as I can see) “part-” or “crypto”. A provincial scribbler by origin, who blagged a poor 2:2 in English at university and, as “journalist”, gets most of her facts wrong.
Allison Pearson has made common cause with the “CAA” snoopers and “lawfare” abusers. She said nothing when the Jewish lobby abused law and professional regulation to have me wrongfully and unlawfully disbarred in 2016; neither did she speak up for me when I was on trial for writing this blog (on trial in late 2023, sentenced in March 2024).
The police have been at my door about 5 or 6 times since 2013, always because some Jew or other has made up a contrived complaint. See the blog articles posted below. A few telephone calls too. The last time was only about a year ago, when some policeman at the door confronted me with Twitter/X posts, which (apart from the language used, which never could have been from me) were from, I think, 2024, and I have not posted on Twitter/X since I was permanently “suspended (expelled) in 2018, when —once again— a pack of Jews combined to “complain” about me.
Seems that the police (posing as a poundland KGB or Stasi) think that I am the only Ian Millard in the world, or in the UK, or posting online. Are they really so ineffective and unthinking? No wonder (real) crime is exploding.
Allison Pearson has also never said a word supporting other victims of Jew-Zionist lawfare, such as Alison Chabloz (imprisoned for posting satirical songs and cartoons), Jez Turner of the now-defunct London Forum (imprisoned for making a short speech in Whitehall saying that Jews should be removed from the UK), or Sam Melia of Patriotic Alternative (imprisoned for distributing completely lawful stickers).
The same is true of other controlled opposition types—Toby Young, the Free Speech Union, GB News, Talk TV, Farage, “Prison Planet” Watson, Matt Goodwin etc, not to forget Katie Hopkins herself…
Ms. Hopkins has never said a word in support of me (or any of those others mentioned).
Come for the vulnerable and disabled yet again and they will rightly come for you. They might not have anything left under Labour but they have a vote. https://t.co/WxTeWffLwf
The first test of that will be the by-election at Runcorn and Helsby on 1 May 2025, i.e. 4 weeks this Thursday.
Only total dummies are going to vote foe Starmer-stein’s fake Labour, but there are plenty of dummies out there, especially in the North of England where many vote Labour automatically, even today (because their great-grandfather always voted Labour…).
Leaving dummies of that sort aside, though, who will vote Labour now? Pensioners? Hardly! The young (under-30s)? Doubtful. Anyone on any State benefits? Very doubtful.
Not that Con is any sort of alternative, now that Labour is doing what the “Conservatives” used to do, and worse…
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride wants to ditch the Triple Lock on State Pensions, so the over-60s voting “Conservative” would be turkeys voting for Christmas.
Reform is really the only game in town in the by-election, if one were to take seriously the “democratic” Schauspiel.
That wasn’t in the Labour manifesto either. More police they promised. Instead, devastating cuts in the capital.
Met Police to lose 1,700 officers and staff in £260m shortfall – BBC News https://t.co/rOoQic5Arf
[“REVENGE— Get down there, where you wanted to send me, you unclean spirit!“]
Thus perish all my enemies.
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Who is still voting for the Conservatives after 14 years in power? Has everyone memory-holed the Boriswave, highest tax burden since WW2 and the increasing crime rates that happened under their watch?
I find it hard to believe that any or many would vote Lib, Lab, or Con after the past 15-25 years…
These latest figures would translate to a Commons with 223 Con MPs, 170 Reform, 130 Labour, 56 LibDem (SNP 43 etc). Underwhelming. Con minority govt. (supported by Reform?).
Still, would be good to see so many “Labour” careerists culled.
Among those kicked out would be that horrid little bastard Stephen Kinnock, Angela Rayner, Mary Creagh, Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall, Sarah Champion, Kim Leadbeater, Torsten Bell, Lisa Nandy (it just gets better!), and Emma Reynolds.
That one would mean Lab 197 MPs, Reform 194, Cons 141 (etc), so maybe a minority Reform government.
What is holding back Reform is that it is not social-national, just conservative-national.
We always lecture Russia on democracy – and now they have thrown this lesson back at us like a boomerang, said Marine Le Pen, who was disqualified from running in the French presidential election by a court ruling pic.twitter.com/wziVOi7pTE
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
Aux armes, citoyens!
A Ukrainian model of the M901 launcher of the American MIM-104 Patriot air defense system, equipped with a container for PAC-2 missiles, is towed by a KrAZ-260V pic.twitter.com/uNDuOuaaUU
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
British media write that they received a sensational leak from the Pentagon : the US will not help Europe in the event of a Russian attack. The US Department of Defense document says that Europe should not depend on the White House in the event of a Russian invasion. pic.twitter.com/TMgger0CPp
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
NATO’s days are numbered.
Johnson: Europe is heading for war with Russia, but it has neither the military power nor the resources to do so
Larry JOHNSON: The main reason for the aggressive policy towards Russia is the loans that France, Great Britain and Germany gave to Kiev. If Ukraine is defeated, that… pic.twitter.com/ATC5AxBCAm
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
[“Johnson: Europe is heading for war with Russia, but it has neither the military power nor the resources to do so Larry JOHNSON: The main reason for the aggressive policy towards Russia is the loans that France, Great Britain and Germany gave to Kiev. If Ukraine is defeated, that money will disappear. And the Russian army will destroy all foreign forces that find themselves on the territory of Ukraine. All those soldiers will be dead. All that will remain is to count their bodies After the summit of the “coalition of the willing (to help Kiev)” held in Paris on March 27, French President Emmanuel Macron said that several members of the coalition plan to send “deterrence forces” to Ukraine. As he emphasized, these forces, which will operate under the direction of Paris and London, will allegedly not replace Ukrainian troops and will not become peacekeepers. Their task will be to contain Russia, and they will be deployed in strategic locations agreed in advance with Kiev.“]
Israel Channel 14:
Following the attack on Iran, Iran is also expected to carry out large-scale missile and drone attacks deep inside Israel. pic.twitter.com/030gt2X1C4
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
How about tax cuts to parents so that the mother can actually stay at home for the 1st 5 years of their child's life to raise them, instead of handing over their 6 month old baby over to strangers so that they can work & pay taxes. All you want is both parents working so you can…
— Heather Louise Navin 🟣 (@ZoeWill26686182) April 2, 2025
[“How about tax cuts to parents so that the mother can actually stay at home for the 1st 5 years of their child’s life to raise them, instead of handing over their 6 month old baby over to strangers so that they can work & pay taxes. All you want is both parents working so you can get as much tax as possible. Scientifically babies are not supposed to leave their mother at all until the baby is 3 years old. Exactly the same as Apes. This is an attack on the nuclear family.“]
At first, I thought that that tweet from Zoe Williams was uncharacteristically sensible, but soon realized that this is a different Zoe Williams, not the very silly Guardian scribbler [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoe_Williams].
another black hole for the diversity chancellor to fund
— Nitrocellulose Doormat (@NitrocelluloseD) April 1, 2025
“Germany could ban far-Right politicians from running for office. Draft agreement seeks to ensure convicted extremists from parties such as the AfD cannot contest elections.
Far-Right politicians in Germany could be banned from running for office under plans by the incoming government, echoing a decision in France to block Marine Le Pen from a presidential bid…“
[Daily Telegraph]
Well, there it is. NWO/ZOG cabals are planning to remove even the fig-leaf of “democracy”.
Of course, “convicted” is but a (not-very-cunning) lie. All that that means is that the System will ensure that troublesome dissidents are indeed convicted, under some or another repressive anti-free-speech “law” or other. Then, abracadabra!, they are barred from standing in elections in the supposedly “free” countries.
Well, if implemented (whether in Germany, in France, or elsewhere) that will only leave action directe as a way forward, as President Kennedy noted about 65 years ago…
Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicted up to 435 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed a tank in its area of responsibility over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday:https://t.co/IEUy5a9JA3pic.twitter.com/w5Xu1NrbIx
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
US expands military presence in Middle East to put pressure on Iran and strike Yemen's Houthis, media reports pic.twitter.com/p5IyRuNjzH
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) April 2, 2025
Those American aircraft carriers are incredible, both in themselves and as global power-projection tools. I once met an American carrier commander in the Caribbean. He and his wife were on leave. A funny little man to look at, a bit like the Penguin in the 1960s TV series, Batman, he carried his rank and responsibility lightly. I used to have a few drinks with them once the sun was going down.
I just saw something I wrote about 3 or 4 years ago (not on the blog). Around 2022.
I think that it has held up rather well:
“Looks like I was far too kind (as usual) in describing William and Harry simply as “the tame thick princelings” a few years ago…
The Royal Mulatta is a ruthless manipulator and adventuress. Harry is, in the vernacular, a “fuck-up”. He has not [as some newspaper scribbler claimed] “risen from” anywhere. His one and only distinction, and ticket to fame and fortune, is his birth. He has nothing else.“
“The Harry Formerly Known as Prince”…
Talking point
The above photo shows a Roma Gypsy district in Romania.
Comment unnecessary…
Tweets seen
They’ve <created> a new offence for this precise purpose “conspiracy to cause a public nuisance” (2022)
— Gas Lighting Services 🇷🇺 (@TauntonHeat) March 30, 2025
As I predicted during the “Covid” scamdemic/panicdemic, Britain’s toytown police state, which had been developing slowly, embryonically, since the days of Blair, which grew (largely unnoticed) during the days of Cameron-Levita and Theresa May, and which hatched out during the “Covid” years of 2020-2022, has now started to behave like a real East German (DDR)-style police state.
When it comes to free speech, freedom of expression, even political freedom as formerly understood in this country, the police are now running out of control. This has been developing over about 25 years.
I happened, unusually, to be watching, this morning, I think on Sky, a political show hosted by Trevor Phillips. There was a panel of three scribblers/talking heads, and guests one by one, of which one was Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary (also, former expenses cheat, would-be dictator, moneygrubber, and member of Labour Friends of Israel).
Yvette Cooper did not even try to answer the concerns of the presenter about freedom, civil rights, “democracy” etc, just gave out a bland robotic, scripted response, in the old Blair-Brown way she learned back then (when not defrauding public funds).
In fact, the same was true when Yvette Cooper was asked about the Labour government of Starmer-stein and Rachel Reeves cutting off the benefit income of the sick, disabled etc. No real answer.
I hope that at least some of the voters of Runcorn and Helsby were watching. The by-election is set for 1 May 2025, the same date as the local elections. Voters, you know what to do. You have to vote Reform, even if you dislike Reform, or Farage, or the Reform candidate. Why? Because only a stunning win for Reform will send a message to the main System parties.
Only a dummy would vote fake Labour now. Even the “Con” governments of 2010-2024 did not go as far as the “Labour” (Friends of Israel) government is going, attacking people they think cannot hit back.
Of course, it would be stupid (especially at that upcoming by-election) to vote fake “Conservative” either. Not only because the Cons have no chance of winning at Runcorn and Helsby (only 16% in 2024) but because voting Reform increases the already-good chance of Labour losing.
Incidentally, unpleasant Helen Whately, the Shadow DWP Secretary, said in the Commons very recently that Labour’s callous and cruel attack on the sick and disabled did not go far enough! Surely the Conservative Party must be totally washed-up now.
Also incidentally, the panel on that show were all unimpressive, with one (Guto Harri) looking scruffy and unwashed.
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Britain is still hurtling toward a two-tier legal system in which judges will consider whether somebody is from a minority group when sentencing
Remember, only 13% of Brits support this. The fringe extreme minority are the unelected Sentencing quango & lawyers who want this pic.twitter.com/umi0u8y08W
When the electoral system is largely rigged, when the “elected” government (in the case of Labour, “elected” by only about 20% of all eligible voters, and by only 34% of all actual voters) ignores the popular will and popular desperation, when the government throws money at foreign dictatorships (eg Ukraine) and migrant-invaders while beggaring most British people, and when the mainstream media carries only lies and government propaganda, the whole system is likely to fail and to fall, but a new order will only be established via real struggle.
Wake up. That bitch was always on the dark side. Labour Friends of Israel, an expenses cheat, a buy-to-let parasite, and a fraudster. A would-be dictator.
Yvette Cooper saying they're focussed on what works, so will continue to try to "smash the gangs". She's very stupid and thinks we are blind and deaf First they came for freedom of speech Then they came for journalists Now they're smashing down the doors of a Quaker Meeting…
— Paul Friend🌹Pray God saves us from liberals (@PFr1end) March 30, 2025
So what should be done about the cabal of tyrants currently posing as a legitimate government?
Which is prime example of why Yvette Cooper is unqualified for the job.
— Common Sense Is Dead (@commonsense1191) March 30, 2025
Once you realize that most System MPs are enemies of the British people and their future, you see it all much more clearly.
Talking point
[same building in East London, or possibly Chelsea (?), 1930s and 2020s]
What a difference 90 years makes…
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For Labour, a supposedly big fiscal event has done little.
The dial remains unmoved on most facets of the economy, when compared to the Conservatives.
The only area that it has shifted slightly is towards Labour in setting tax levels and improving business conditions. pic.twitter.com/55LPJiGNK5
I have found that to be the case. I am smiling with pleasure as I contemplate how many of those enemies have either “snuffed it” or are presently awaiting the same (via natural causes, in most cases).
We all go “up the chimney” sooner or later, but I still prefer my enemies to go up sooner…
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Russian troops liberated the settlement of Zaporozhye in the Donetsk region over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported: https://t.co/nk16i2tlWIpic.twitter.com/9NqcpH8NR2
Russian forces continue to advance across all relevant sectors of the front.
This #MothersDay, meet some of the mares and foals whose stories have changed for the better, thanks to your support. ❤️
20 pregnant mares were brought to safety during our largest UK rescue in 2021. With expert care, these mothers and their foals are now leading happier lives. pic.twitter.com/loEJd8SKrt
— The Donkey Sanctuary (@DonkeySanctuary) March 30, 2025
'We've never won Runcorn.'
'So you're not bothering?'
Camilla Tominey questions Alex Burghart MP on why the Tory Party have 'given up' with the Runcorn by-election. pic.twitter.com/7cSBcZpY2f
From the horse’s mouth. If 2024 Conservative voters at Runcorn and Helsby want to stick it to Labour and Starmer-stein, then the only way to do that is to vote Reform. This could be the most important by-election of the decade.
In that by-election, a Con vote is a completely wasted vote, so either vote Reform, or stay home. Likewise, if 2024 Labour voters want to send a message to the present fake Labour-label regime under Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, and Liz Kendall, then the only way to do that is to vote Reform or, failing that, to stay home.
The fear that Rachel Reeves is putting on disabled people and those that already suffer from conditions is horrific. I would never have voted Labour at the last election if I had known about their disgusting plans. They are no better than the Tories.
It only takes one individual to stand up, step up, and send a message that will never be forgotten.
Rachel Reeves has no credibility. She had a company credit card taken away because of misuse, she had her parliamentary credit card suspended because of misuse, she falsified her CV,and her recently published book was riddled with plagiarism. The chancellor is a fraudster #Fraudpic.twitter.com/iAJjUGOo3n
Reeves to put £2bn into affordable housing to ‘sweeten the pill’ of cuts https://t.co/4NxN5nL5KZ Chancellor will announce plans to fund 18,000 social homes before fraught spring statement on Wednesday
I am sure that the migrant-invaders and other non-Brits will appreciate the free housing. Then they can start (or continue) to breed.
More of the green countryside lost to featureless sprawl.
Is this a pic of Rachel Reeves? This homeless looking crack slag doesn't look like a gov't bigshot. She looks like she really needs a shower, a shampoo and some deodorant. Eww! https://t.co/RALSio7ein
About time that the British people awoke to the fact that most of those purporting to rule over them are their enemies.
"Take a good look at Labour’s roll call of benefits scrounges: Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting, Bridget Phillipson, Lucy Powell, and Anas Sarwar—each one a master of mooching off the system they claim to fix. Starmer’s hauled in £107,145 since…
[“Take a good look at Labour’s roll call of benefits scrounges: Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting, Bridget Phillipson, Lucy Powell, and Anas Sarwar—each one a master of mooching off the system they claim to fix. Starmer’s hauled in £107,145 since 2019—£20,437 for a lord’s flat, £16,200 in suits, £2,435 for glasses, and £18,000+ in football tickets while fans queue for crumbs. Rayner’s £3,550 wardrobe and £1,250 New York getaway, courtesy of Lord Waheed Alli, scream entitlement—she can’t even dress herself on £150,000 a year. Reeves, our tight-fisted Chancellor, snatched £7,500 in outfits, while Streeting grabbed £1,160 Taylor Swift tickets as the NHS staggers. Phillipson’s £14,000 ‘event’ cash from Alli—birthday bash, anyone?—pairs with her concert freebies, and Powell’s £40,289 since 2019 marks her as a seasoned scrounger. Sarwar’s £10,117 in Scottish perks tops his MSP rivals. Together, they’ve gorged on £220,000 in shadow cabinet handouts—£700,000 across all MPs in a year—preaching equality while pocketing privilege. Hypocrisy doesn’t just drip from this lot; it pours, a rancid flood of greed proving they think rules are for us plebs and benefits are their divine right. Utterly revolting!“]
Dear Rachel Reeves MPs claimed over £200 million in expenses over the last 3 years. Why is it their electricity, gas, council tax, and contents insurance for second homes is paid for by us, the taxpayers? #GMB#BBCBreakfast
Delegations from Russia and the US have conducted technical consultations in Riyadh and sent reports to their respective leaders; the talks’ results will not be published, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:https://t.co/LcsV1esmZ4pic.twitter.com/cmt6GgmWHF
A widely circulated video shows secondary detonations at a Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition depot in Sumy Oblast after an Iskander missile strike pic.twitter.com/GCDA9QtAnc
Ukraine continues attacks on Russia's civilian energy infrastructure amid the Moscow-Washington consultations in Riyadh, the Defense Ministry reported. TASS has compiled the main information on the Ukrainian attacks:https://t.co/20sDdznUpWpic.twitter.com/mCNJVWJR0s
Russian troops liberated two communities in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Zaporozhye Region over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported:https://t.co/jyPEVoOAJRpic.twitter.com/Jdt0qhbmzI
The more that I think about the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election, the more I think that Reform are going to smash it.
No matter that I could imagine Reform with a better candidate (someone such as Matt Goodwin), though the Reform candidate seems voter-acceptable, anyway. The important thing, surely, is the hatred so many people now feel for the main System parties and even more —because of the feeling of betrayal— from Labour (in fact much more than for the Conservatives who, despite their appalling record 2010-2024, are now seen as near-irrelevant, finished, washed-up).
That’s before you even factor-in the fact that the Conservative Party is now led by a Nigerian woman who also seems totally clueless. Also, Kemi Badenoch’s thunder (on social security, tax, spending cuts etc) has been stolen by Labour. Labour is just a label now, and is even less social, let alone socialist, than the Conservative Party.
For me, it is telling that the Labour candidate for the by-election is trying to ape Reform, demanding the closure of hotels occupied by migrant-invaders etc. It is clear that Labour considers Reform to be its main rival, and not only at Runcorn and Helsby.
In the past nearly 9 months, the Labour “brand” has been totally trashed. The whole population, I should have thought, has turned away from Labour. Pensioners, the young, anyone receiving any State benefit at all, anyone anti-migration invasion, anyone with any genuine feeling for the English countryside, will not be voting Labour.
The petty corruption and sleaze of the Labour Cabinet may be dwarfed by the corruption of the past years of “Con Party” misgovernment, but the point, I think, is that people, especially in the North of England, somehow expected Labour to be somehow better.
The sheer “we are the masters now” arrogance and callousness exhibited by Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall, Starmer-stein, and their lesser followers such as Torsten Bell, has disgusted millions.
People now, after only 9 months, see this Labour-label regime as being quite as bad, and in fact worse in every way, than those of 14 years of Conservative misgovernment.
I do not think that Labour’s appalling handling of foreign affairs (by thick “diversity-hire” Lammy, as well as by Starmer-stein himself) will count for much at the by-election, either way, but people can surely see that Starmer has made a fool of himself by threatening to send (almost non-existent) troops to Ukraine etc. That is so even for people who support the Kiev regime.
I think that important factors at the by-election will include the continuing migration-invasion, the petty sleaze and corruption of Labour’s top echelon, the hypocrisy of the same, the sense of Britain as a country sliding to chaos and even civil war (albeit not this year), the behaviour of the former Labour MP, the wish to give Labour a real kick and, perhaps most important, the sense of total betrayal by Labour.
At present, both polling orgs and bookmakers predict a modest or narrow win for Reform.
I may be wrong, but I think we could be looking at a huge win by Reform. A win in the region of as much as 50% or even 60% of the vote-share. Labour? Maybe 20%-30%. Cons? 10% or below; maybe even a lost deposit.
This might turn out to be a very significant by-election result. If Reform can win it, the win might pave the way for dozens of others in this Parliament.
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The shocking sense of unfairness that now pervades British life —millions of hardworking, tax paying, law-abiding Brits now feel they’re being taken for a ride by a political class that puts immigrants first https://t.co/KaihWoYU3i
Wrong. The “political class” in the UK puts itself first, then its cronies and bribe-makers, and only then the migrant-invaders etc, with most British people last in line.
Only 11% of Brits think Rachel from Accounts is doing a 'good job' –YouGov, today
[“A British school scrapping Easter to celebrate “refugee week” & “diversity” is not a trivial story It reflects something which unites today’s ruling elite –a belief in “asymmetrical multiculturalism”. And what’s that? It is the belief you must celebrate every identity, culture & people except your own I wrote about this and the attack on who we are here https://mattgoodwin.org/p/the-war-against-our-past-inside-the“]
Well, bravo! A scribbler and talking head has, it seems, belatedly woken up…
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Here we have again the “I’m about to deck the interviewer” manner. And he has a mortgage to pay! What a dreadful look capping off a day of shame. https://t.co/m1E9Y6stHf
That Torsten Bell idiot is so obviously a careerist and hypocrite. Frighteningly thick, too, for all the Oxford PPE degree etc, and with no real principles or ideals, or even ideas. Just a careerist drone. Sickening. This is neo-Blairism without even the fig-leaf of public good that Labour displayed 1997-2010.
The Torsten Bell idiot reiterates the now-standard bs (first seen per Dunce Duncan Smith etc, during the 2010-2015 years of the Cameron-Levita “Conservative” government) about how cutting the income of those already poor or very poor somehow saves them from being “written off”! The sheer lying hypocrisy is stunning.
When I see lying hypocrites and System careerists such as Torsten Bell, I think “that is why you need concentration camps” (at very least).
I see from Wikipedia that that Bell individual is 42, 43 later this year; looks and sounds like a recent graduate, though he must have graduated 20 years ago. No weight, very very unconvincing, and also very plainly in it (politics) for his own benefit.
Torsten Bell has just accused me of defending a Tory welfare system. That is a lie. I have consistently called for reform of the system but not a reform based upon billions of pounds of cuts that will harm and put the lives of disabled people at risk.
That little Torsten Bell blot seems oblivious to the fact that, in contrasting what the Starmer-stein “Labour”-label misgovernment is doing with what he calls the “Tory welfare system“, he is actually presenting even the cruel/callous policies of the Conservatives from 2010-2024 as having been better (less cruel and less callous) than those of Starmer-stein, “Rachel from Accounts” Reeves, and Liz Kendall.
My illustrious MP , parachuted into a safe Labour seat ,he’s a despicable man. This happened to my husband who is now dead . The pip process is dehumanising.”
I thought that that tweet was worth reproducing in detail, especially since the lady who tweeted it later deleted it for some reason (possibly upset).
Voters of Runcorn and Helsby, send this evil “Labour”-label misgovernment a message by voting Reform at the upcoming by-election. No matter if you do not like Farage, or disagree with some Reform policies. The thing to do is to stick it to both Labour and the equally-misnamed Conservatives.
In an ideal world, I should like very bad things to happen to many System politicians but, in view of the fact that we live in a gradually-encroaching police state, I prefer to say no more, and to let the readers of the blog read between the lines.
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[Shishkin, Gathering Storm]
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'It sets disabled people against the rest of society'
Former Paralympian Baroness @Tanni_GT says the government's announcement of cuts to disability benefits 'portrays disabled people as scroungers'. https://t.co/PAiZ4D1jU3
Labour support declining even among formerly enthusiastic young people (I think it stood at about 80% at one point a couple of years ago); interestingly, Reform support has grown from just a few percent to 13% over the past couple of years.
Put the policy aside for a moment. The tone adopted by government ministers today – aggressive, uncompromising, arrogant – could not be less appropriate when talking about cuts to vulnerable people’s benefits. It was the same when they cut Winter Fuel Payments. No idea why they…
Because Starmer-stein’s own attitude has transmitted itself to his Cabinet and thence to almost all Labour MPs…i.e. “we are the masters now“, but I remember how rattled and, in a word, scared, they all were when the so-called “riots” (protests) happened last summer. I think they were at least slightly wondering whether they would end up dangling from lamp-posts, as happened to the Communist secret policemen of the HVA after the eruption of the Hungarian Uprising in 1956.
The arrogant and cruel attitude of the Starmer-stein government might and in fact would turn to grovelling supplication if a British uprising were to occur.
On the wider question, Basic Income is the only way forward.
“Between welfare payments for foreign nationals and the bill for our broken asylum system, the British taxpayer is currently paying somewhere in the region of £13 billion every year, or £250 million every week for this insanity” https://t.co/ffnirFBRK9
“I’d say that if you look in nearly every country, from Canada to the UK, that imported large amounts of cheap labour, you’ve seen productivity stagnate.
If Reform can win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, the momentum created will weaken fake Labour even more, and all but finish off the increasingly less relevant “Conservative” Party.
In Gaza, according to a report by Al Arabiya television, 356 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ordered residents of the area on the border with Israel to evacuate deeper into the enclave. pic.twitter.com/rPnCV4N7eL
Watch "JOURNEY TO THE WEALD OF KENT. TRADE TEST FILM NARRATED BY SIR JOHN BETJEMAN." on YouTube https://t.co/CaxZnpTt0D
— TheEndOfEverything (@EternalEnglish) July 6, 2021
[Journey to the Weald of Kent, filmed in 1959, and narrated by Betjeman; starts at 0:54; interesting to hear that, in the past, orchards were called “gardens” in Kent. In Russian, the same word is used for both “orchard” and “garden”— “сад” (pronounced “saad”) ]
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Talking point
In Nottingham in UK there are 30 mosques but Muslims decided to celebrate Ramadan in square. Why? pic.twitter.com/UzVjCfwuPq
Putin speaks on imminent Ukrainian defeat in Kursk at Prosecutor Office board meeting. The Russian president noted that the number of complaints received by the Prosecutor's Office increased by 10% in 2024:https://t.co/DbIESIeN3hpic.twitter.com/DCBTnKe7Ne
Moscow and Kiev have conducted a 175-for-175 prisoner exchange, the Defense Ministry said. As a goodwill gesture, Russia also handed over to Ukraine 22 severely injured prisoners of war in need of urgent medical care:https://t.co/xBAtKBn3Ubpic.twitter.com/6gvpYgtwBf
Russian forces struck Ukrainian military airfields and UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) storage facilities over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday:https://t.co/WNCCzTBFXApic.twitter.com/gCc5xAgfkv
Tweet is ambiguous; I am presuming Ukrainian POWs captured by the Russians. They all look in reasonable condition, not obviously ill-treated or malnourished.
“Ukrainians are just brainwashed Russians.”
Icelandic journalist Haukur Hauksson shares his views on Ukrainian propaganda and Russia’s humane treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war. pic.twitter.com/VsO6WyRIL0
Al Qaeda Al Julani gangs on 03/09/2025 abused civilians of all ages, both the elderly and the young—and subsequently mass executed them. Among the victims, the martyr Wahib Shaaban, distinguished by his white attire, was later identified.https://t.co/2AIedzIzQjpic.twitter.com/CzlnTJqcB3
Among the worst movements or tendencies of the world are Islamism and Zionism. European/Aryan or post-Aryan Eurasian hegemonism must defeat both.
At the end of our focus groups in Grimsby, we asked former Labour voters and people who didn't vote in 2024 to choose who they would most like to be Prime Minister.
“My feisty debate on @GBNews We must not be embarrassed to assert the primacy of Western civilisation Africa didn’t produce a Shakespeare because, of its 2000 languages, 80% have no written form Asians play European classical music, hold Shakespeare festivals and have national museums of Western art because they appreciate the depth and sophistication of European art forms. They do this whilst also being justifiably proud of the magnificent art, literature & music of Chinese, Japanese and Indian civilisation. This is what the anti-British ideologues who dominate our own cultural institutions cannot – or will not – grasp. They cannot stand that an Englishman is the greatest writer the world has ever produced. It sticks in their craw and they will do anything to diminish and downplay that achievement.”
Britain faces an existential crisis
Every day we see our culture & history undermined and our population demoralised
The British people are told they've nothing to be proud of & that Britain is the root of all evil
“Britain faces an existential crisis Every day we see our culture & history undermined and our population demoralised The British people are told they’ve nothing to be proud of & that Britain is the root of all evil We must fight back “AMERICA: LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT!” was a popular saying when I was young. Britons need to adopt a similar attitude now. Dominated by nihilistic, self-loathing ideologues, our cultural and academic institutions are responsible for much of the anti-British propaganda we encounter. We must remember that WE, British taxpayers, fund these quangos, museums, galleries, universities etc. The government doesn’t have any money. It spends OUR money. If publicly funded institutions create anti-British exhibitions, lecture us on the evils of our past, give us a guilt trip about slavery and the British Empire, denigrate our heroes, or simply demoralise our people, they should lose their funding. That’s the most effective way to retaliate. From Arts Council England to Tate Britain and the National Theatre, potentially hundreds of these bodies are eroding national self confidence. It’s a war of attrition and it cannot continue. My thoughts with @TVKev on @TalkTV.”
“Political power comes out of the barrel of a gun” [Mao]
“The pen is mightier than the sword” [Bulwer-Lytton]
A by-election is to be held in Brecon and Radnorshire constituency (formerly Brecon and Radnor, 1918-1997). Unusually, this by-election has been triggered by the conviction for (what amounts to) fraud relating to the Parliamentary expenses of the sitting MP. Christopher Davies, who had held the seat since 2015, pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 50 hours of community service and a fine of £1,500.
The relative leniency of the sentence may reflect the fact that the £700 wrongfully claimed by way of expenses by Davies could have been claimed legitimately (whether approved or not); the way in which he went about it (creating two false invoices amounting to the sum in question) made it unlawful. On a kind interpretation, Davies was stupid or incompetent more than (very) dishonest. Still not very good for him, I would have thought.
The position of the MP and the calling of the by-election
The events around this by-election raise interesting issues.
The news reports say that the seat “has been vacated”, but I have seen nothing about the Speaker declaring it so, a problem which previously arose during the Fiona Onasanya case, when that MP, despite having been sentenced for perversion of the course of justice, and despite a recall petition having been approved by more than the requisite 10% of eligible voters, still sat and voted as MP for Peterborough (including, crucially, in a significant Brexit debate and vote), also getting paid for months.
Davies may or may not, at time of writing, still be an MP. Even the more serious newspapers and the specialized websites (eg Politics Home) have not clarified the position. The Wikipedia entry for Davies says that his removal as MP was “automatic” once the results of the petition were known, but such is not the case. Wikipedia also says that “the seat was declared vacant on 21 June 2019” (today). Perhaps.
The Conservatives must “move a writ” to start the by-election process. In Britain’s unwritten or (more accurately) uncodified Constitution, this is supposed to happen within (usually) 3 months of the seat being declared vacant. After that, the by-election usually happens within 27 days (of the writ having been moved).
In other words, while in theory this by-election could happen by the end of July 2019, it might not happen until late October or, if the Conservatives really stretched the Constitutional proprieties to the limit, even later. Parliament rises for its Summer Recess on 25 July, so if the writ is not moved by then, the very earliest date on which the writ could be moved would be 3 September, after the Commons return, making the earliest by-election date one in late September.
If Davies is still nominally the MP, then he is entitled to his salary and expenses until such time as he is declared (by the Speaker) not the MP.
Christopher Davies, remarkably (bearing in mind that he pleaded guilty to the charges), seems to be breezy about the matter, and has invited his constituents to his local office, in the small Welsh town of Builth Wells, to view and enjoy the 9 landscape photographs which were the subject-matter of the expenses claims in question! I daresay that many of his constituents might wonder why Parliamentary expenses cover such purchases anyway (surely he or the local Conservative Association should have paid?).
Even more remarkably, Davies says that he intends to stand again! The local Conservatives, meanwhile, have not pronounced on whether Davies will be allowed to stand as a Conservative Party candidate! One can see their difficulty: if Davies stands as Conservative candidate, their chance of success is weakened, contaminated by his candidature, but if Davies stands as Independent Conservative or some such, he may draw off at least a few hundred, maybe even a thousand or more otherwise “Conservative” votes. None dare call it blackmail?
Still, one would have thought that simple ethical standards might have come into play, but in the contemporary Conservative Party, it seems not.
Another strange aspect: one would have thought that the two contenders for the Conservative Party leadership would have condemned Davies for his offences, or at least mumbled something neutral, but it seems that both have been “very supportive”.
The constituency
Before 1939, the constituency, under its Brecon and Radnor name, had as MPs persons from the Labour, Liberal, Conservative, Unionist, National and National Liberal parties (the latter three effectively Conservative coalition candidates).
Labour held the seat between 1939 and 1979. From 1979 to 2019, the Conservatives won 3 times, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats 3 times.
The post-WW2 Labour vote peaked in 1964 at just under 58%; its lowest was 10% in 2010. In general, the Labour vote has declined over the years, having not exceeded 20% of votes cast since the General Election of 2001.
The LibDem vote peaked in 2010 at 44.8% (1st placed), since when it declined to about 28% in 2015 and about 29% in 2017; however in both 2015 and 2017, the LibDems were placed 2nd.
In 2017, the Conservative candidate, Davies, achieved a vote of 48.6%, a post-WW2 record for Conservatives in the seat.
The only other (slightly) significant party contending over the years has been Plaid Cymru, which however has rarely retained its deposit in recent decades. Its typical vote share in recent years has been 2%-3%, though it reached 4.4% in 2015 (3.1% in 2017).
A few other parties have stood over the years. UKIP got 8.3% in 2015 (its best in the seat), but slumped to 1.4% in 2017.
The joker in the pack is Brexit Party.
Conclusion
There are some uncertain factors here: will Christopher Davies really stand again, and if so will it be as Conservative Party candidate or as some type of Independent? Will Brexit Party put up a strong candidate? Whatever happens, the Conservatives must be toast here. If Davies stands as Independent, and with Brexit Party now standing, then the Conservative vote will (probably though not necessarily) be even lower than if Davies brazenly stands again as Conservative. Davies does seem to be quite embedded locally, as a former livestock auctioneer, Royal Welsh Show ring commentator and manager of a veterinary practice.
The LibDems are currently strong favourites. The only thing that would or might upset the applecart would be the Brexit Party, now (announced today) entering the fray. Looking at 2015/2017, the LibDem core vote in the seat is below 30%. Even so, the LibDems must be in pole position here. It’s their election to lose.
Further factors
It is plainly in the Conservative interest to delay this by-election as long as possible. Their notional working Commons majority, even with DUP support, is now only four. If Brecon and Radnorshire goes LibDem or Brexit Party, that will reduce to three. Some Conservative MPs are ready to abandon support if Brexit no-deal looks likely. Boris Johnson may be a very short-lived Prime Minister.
The Brecon and Radnorshire Conservatives have reselected Christopher Davies as their candidate.
Davies faces an uphill struggle. While his offence was only marginally dishonest, it was still dishonest. It also showed Davies as both lacking in judgment and as simply inept. Apart from that, there is the point that the Conservatives have rarely if ever been lower in public estimation. Also, this is a by-election and the Conservative Party is in government.
The position has now been clarified. Davies is no longer the MP and the writ is expected to be moved today, Thursday 27 June, having failed two days ago. The by-election is now or soon will be set for 1 August 2019.
In a sense, I am surprised that the Conservatives did not play this more tactically, in view of their situation re. the numbers in the Commons, but there it is.
Now that Brexit Party is standing, the chance of the Conservatives actually winning (especially with a rather discredited candidate) has shrunk accordingly. If Brexit Party gets half of the 2017 Conservative vote, that would give them about 24%. The LibDems are unlikely to get less than the c.29% they got in 2017. Labour got over 17% in 2017.
If Labour does better than it did in 2017, and if Brexit Party does well too, and the LibDems do at least as well as they did in 2017, then all four serious contenders might well get vote shares in the 20%-35% range. If the Conservative vote were to collapse to, say, 10% or 15%, then the other three parties in serious contention might well end up getting about the same vote shares as each other.
This might turn out to be quite close among LibDems, Brexit Party, Labour, and maybe Conservatives too, with the likelihood of placings in that order.
Meanwhile, minor Remain-friendly parties look like not contesting the seat, in order to give the LibDems a clear run. Green Party, Renew, Change UK (probably, if they even bother to make a statement, they are already so marginal), Plaid Cymru (maybe).
Renew has never contested this seat, though it scored about 4% in Newport West recently; Change UK is already a “dead parrot” party, marginal, negligible in support (below 1%); the Greens last contested this seat in 2015, scoring 3.1%; Plaid got 3.1% in the seat in 2017.
If Plaid get on board the non-contest train, the boost to the LibDems must be worth several points, maybe as much as 7%, though more realistically about 5%. Worth having, anyway.
There are so far 4 candidates standing (LibDems, Conservatives, Brexit Party, Labour), with less than 48 hours until nominations close. Plaid Cymru has “indicated” that it will not be standing, in order to give the pro-Remain LibDems their best possible chance. The other pro-Remain parties, meaning Greens and Renew, are both not standing and for the same reason. Any late entries are likely to be vanity or joke candidates and will not at all change the outcome of the by-election.
The LibDems must be in an even stronger position to take the seat now that the smaller parties are not standing. In the last few elections, minor parties accounted for between 5% and 10% of the total vote.
Update, 4 July 2019
My eye was caught by the latest YouGov national opinion poll, as reported by Britain Elects.
If this poll is in any way accurate (and Ipsos Mori put out a very different result only a week ago, which shows how volatile UK politics is becoming), then Brexit Party would actually be the largest party in the Commons after a general election:
Brexit Party 196 seats (130 short of Commons majority), Labour 148, Conservative 169, LibDem 66. That would mean a Brexit Party government with, almost inevitably, Conservative support; possibly a coalition government. Large numbers of both Conservative and Labour MPs would be gone, including half of those recently vying for Conservative leadership.
Thinking about how that might apply to the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, it may be that most of the 2017 Conservative votes in the seat will go to Brexit Party, but they might not. There is uncertainty. Personality often means more in rural constituencies than in urban and suburban ones. Much depends on whether voters regard the Conservative, Christopher Davies, as an “expenses cheat” and/or “fraudster” after his criminal conviction, or whether they will “forgive and forget” his sin/error because they (do they?) regard him otherwise as OK and his offence a technical one.
My view is obviously no more than an educated guess, but I should think that many locals will think that £700 is a ridiculous sum to pay out for 9 photographs anyway. Others will see the dishonesty aspect; yet others may think that the former MP should be given a second chance. Much depends on his personal vote, on his local popularity.
I find this by-election hard to call. However, it must be done. On present facts, I think that Labour has no chance, realistically. It is seen as the party of the blacks and browns now, for one thing. They are few in number in that part of the world, unless it has changed hugely since I was last there. Also, Remain voters will go LibDem here, not Labour, whereas committed Leave/Brexit voters will go Brexit Party or maybe Con.
I think that it is quite possible that at least half the 2017 Conservative vote will defect to Brexit Party. The LibDem vote will be solid now that the party is bouncing in the polls; also, in this seat, the LibDems are not seen as a wasted vote, Brecon and Radnorshire having had LibDem MPs from 1997 until 2015.
If the LibDems can build on the 29% they got in 2017, and I think that they will, then they are in with a very good chance. They might get a vote between 30% and 40%.
I doubt whether Labour will get more than 10% or so.
The Conservative vote may collapse, though I remain unconvinced that it will go much lower than 20%.
Brexit Party, if it can capture disaffected Conservative votes, might go as high as 30%. There is another point, which is whether people who prefer Conservative or Labour will vote tactically for Brexit Party. Hard to say. The LibDems must get at least 30% and may get 40%, so Brexit Party has to get around 40% to have a chance of winning.
Provisional Conclusion (with nearly 4 weeks left to run):
LibDems
Brexit Party
Conservatives
Labour
Update, 5 July 2019
With weeks left to run, the online betting market shows the LibDems as heavily odds-on (about 1/5), Labour (oddly, but the market is thin) on 2/1, Conservatives on 9/1, Brexit Party at 12/1. Political betting is a minefield. The favourites often go down. Labour on 2/1 looks like exceptionally poor value! Brexit Party, however, looks like fairly good value at 12/1. My own valuation of the odds would be nearer to: LibDems 1/2, Brexit Party 2/1, Conservatives 3/1, Labour 10/1, but we shall see.
The confirmed final list of candidates shows the four expected parties (Con, Lab, LibDem, Brexit Party) and two late entrants, namely UKIP and Monster Raving Loony. The UKIP entry will obviously eat into Brexit Party’s chances; to what extent we shall see, though even 500 or 1,000 votes might be enough to sink Brexit Party in the by-election. Looks more like a spoiler than a serious candidature.
The Guardian interviews locals. One part stands out:
“Given that 19% of the local electorate signed the recall petition, almost double the 10% threshold, a surprising number of locals of different party allegiances express sympathy for Davies’s plight. Yet there are some who are adamant that he should have stood down. One council worker tells me that, owing to her job, she’s in electoral purdah and can only speak off the record. “I signed the petition against Chris Davies because he tried to shaft a friend of mine who works in his office, by blaming the expenses mistake on her,” she says. As far as this council worker is concerned, Davies, whom she voted for in 2017, was given a second chance for cynical reasons. “Everyone knows that they didn’t want to put any promising new candidate in,” she says, “because they know they’re going to lose the seat.””
Had a look at Oddschecker betting array. LibDems are hugely odds-on (1/9), Conservatives second at aroung 7/1, Brexit Party about 12/1, Labour 100/1. Not noted were UKIP and Monster Raving Loony. I expect that anyone wanting to throw away a few pounds could ask for and get 500/1 against either of those.
Betting is not always a sure indicator of a election or referendum result, but the LibDems have, as previously said, a lot going for them here: a fairly recent history of providing the local MP, the fact that the Conservative candidate is damaged goods, the fact that those who would have voted for the parties that have voluntarily withdrawn (Green, Plaid Cymru, Renew) will vote LibDem in a contest where Labour is anyway a wasted vote.
Well, “the moment of truth”, meaning that the by-election will be held tomorrow, Thursday 1 August 2019. This blog post has so far had, in about 5-6 weeks, 600+ views, far above the norm for my blog. Brecon and Radnorshire is having its 15 minutes of fame…
The LibDems are in pole position, hugely odds-on with the bookmakers (1/20 in some quarters), with the Conservatives in 2nd place (about 9/1) and (perhaps surprisingly) Brexit Party in 3rd position (as high as 50/1, which may be, at those odds, a value bet); Labour seems out of it at odds of 150-1.
A month ago, I was predicting, provisionally, LibDems to win, followed by Brexit Party, Conservatives, Labour, UKIP (a pure spoiler candidature, it seems) and the inevitable joke candidate, a Monster Raving Loony calling herself Lily the Pink (presumably after the comic song of 1968).
I see no reason to think that the LibDems will not win Brecon and Radnorshire. They have all the Remain votes and so many of the votes of the highly-subsidized local farmers, though no doubt some of the latter will remain loyal to the Conservative Party and its recently-convicted candidate. I do not know what sort of campaign Brexit Party put up in the constituency, but I should imagine that BP might still come second, notwithstanding the bookmakers. If it does not, Brexit Party’s balloon deflates a little more, but many will be looking at the result of the by-election to see whether the Conservative might have won were there no Brexit Party candidate. If the Brexit Party candidature alone meant that the Conservative could not win, alarm bells will sound at CCHQ.
Update, 1 August 2019
Polling day. The betting odds, for what they are worth are (best odds) LibDems 1/18 odds-on; Conservatives 7/1, Brexit Party 100/1, Labour 150/1. The bookmakers, at least, think that Brexit Party is heading for 3rd place. Perhaps.
It may well be that tactical voting is taking place, in particular that Labour supporters, recognizing that Labour has no chance here, are going with the LibDems in order to ensure defeat for the Conservatives (and Brexit Party).
The only significant changes in the betting are the Conservatives taking closer order (yesterday 8/1 or 9/1, today 6/1 or 7/1, and Brexit Party sliding from 50/1 to 100/1.
Looks as if the LibDems have probably nailed it and that the Government’s majority, even with DUP support, is now 1 MP vote.
The LibDems won fairly decisively, but with a smaller majority than the betting might have been suggesting. I have posted links here below.
For me, the most important aspect beyond the headline result is the fact that the Conservative ex-MP would have won, even handsomely, were it not for the candidature of Brexit Party, which received 3,331 votes.
The LibDem majority over the Conservatives was only 1,425. In other words, had Brexit Party not been standing, the Conservatives would almost certainly have won by nearly 2,000 votes. I shall be blogging separately later about the by-election and the implications of that Brexit Party aspect for the national political picture.
The Labour vote had suffered a general decline in the constituency over the years (all-time high was 57.69% in 1964), but this was its lowest-ever vote-share (5.3%). I attribute that partly and perhaps mainly to tactical voting: Labour supporters voting against the Conservatives (mainly) in a situation where Labour had no real chance anyway: the Labour vote here has not exceeded 20% since 2001 (21.4%).
The Monster Raving Loony Party got 1% (334 votes), the UKIP spoiler candidate (or was she just irredeemably stupid?) only 0.8% (242 votes).
There is not much sunshine for the Conservatives in this result. Still, ex-MP Christopher Davies can always return to auctioning cattle; and he has some lovely landscape photographs (the subject-matter of his criminal case) for his Builth Wells office. Something to think about as he endures his community service serf-labour…
Ynys Mon, a constituency which (sub nom Anglesey) goes back to 1545, was won by the Conservative Party at the 2019 General Election, only the third time a Conservative Party MP had been elected there, and only the second Conservative MP (the first having been the multikulti supporter, Keith Best [MP 1979-1987], who was convicted, while MP, on charges of having made fraudulent share applications).
As to Brecon and Radnorshire, the Conservative Party won easily, with a vote-share of over 53%, at the General Election. Brexit Party had not stood (rather, withdrawn) a candidate after Nigel Farage stabbed his own supporters in the back.
The present MP for Brecon and Radnorshire is Fay Jones, a rather obscure and youngish woman (34/35 y-o) whose father was also once a Conservative Party MP (and is a prominent freemason in Wales).
On 4 April 2019, a by-election will be held at Newport West, the former seat of Labour MP Paul Flynn, who died recently.
Paul Flynn was generally well-regarded, except by the Jew-Zionists, who deplored his principled opposition to Israel and to, in 2013, (the then) H.M. Ambassador to Israel appointed despite being a Jew and admitted Zionist (and so perhaps having dual or conflicted loyalties: see Notes, below). Flynn retweeted my tweets once or twice, I think, when I still had a Twitter account, but also criticized me once. Well, de mortuis nihil nisi bonum, so we’ll say no more of that.
Newport West
The constituency was created in 1983. It was won that year by the Conservatives, who received 38% of votes cast (Labour 36.6%, Liberal Party 24.2%, and Plaid Cymru 1.2%). That result turned out to be anomalous, in that Paul Flynn won for Labour in 1987 and held the seat until his recent death.
This is a Lab-Con marginal. The Liberal Democrats peaked in 2005 at 17.9% (third place), plateaued at a similar figure in 2010, slumped to 3.9% in 2015 (fifth place) and collapsed further (to 2.2%, again fifth-placed) in 2017.
Plaid Cymru is irrelevant here, peaking at 7.2% in 2001 but usually found at or near the bottom of the poll at under 2% (and sometimes under 1%).
UKIP peaked here in 2015 at 15.2% (third) and again achieved a third place in 2017, but on a miserable 2.5%.
Other candidates have stood occasionally over the years (Green, Referendum Party, BNP and Independents), but are not even marginally significant (BNP 3% in 2010, beating UKIP).
As to the only significant contenders, Labour and Conservative, Labour’s vote peaked in 1997 at 60.5%; its lowest ebb (apart from 1983) was in 2015 (41.2%). So much for the “personal vote”. After Corbyn replaced Miliband as Labour Leader, Labour’s vote increased, in 2017, to 52.3%.
The Conservative Party vote stood lowest in 1997 (24.4%) and highest in 1987 (40.1%). Its 2017 vote, at 39.3%, was the Con best since 1987, though the Con vote has held up above 30% (perhaps surprisingly so) since 2010.
Opinion
There are several reasons to think that the Labour vote will sink back: a new and untested candidate, the death of a fairly popular longstanding MP, Labour’s perceived pro-mass-immigration stance. Also, the fact that Labour is sending out mixed messages about Brexit in a constituency which voted Leave more heavily than the UK average (nearly 54%). The “Corbyn factor” seems, so far, to have been a positive rather than a negative.
If I were putting money on this, I should probably still back Labour to win, though the Conservative candidate may do well and might just do it. As to the others, they can probably all easily be written off. The interesting side-bet will be how high or low UKIP scores. My guess? Under 5%, anyway (if UKIP stands at all; if not, the Con candidate will be boosted, probably).
Notes
The 2016 EU Referendum results were not directly voted for or collated by constituency, and in Wales the vote was arranged by reference to local authority boundaries, in this case designated as “Newport”, not “Newport West”. I have taken the Leave vote relating to Newport West as standing at or about 54%, but other estimates have it as about 56%.
Candidates have not yet declared. It is unknown whether any candidates of a broadly “nationalist” character will stand. UKIP is a possible but not inevitable contender. What would be significant would be anyone standing for the “Independent Group” of MPs. That group is not yet registered as a party (and may never be); until it is, it cannot put up candidates under “Independent Group”, but only as “Independent”. Having said that, if a candidate were to be endorsed on TV etc by the rebel MPs as the candidate, in effect, of the Group, then that would have an effect. It would split the Labour vote and almost certainly let in the Conservative candidate, though it is just on the fringe of possibility that, in a 3-way split of main candidates, the (in effect) IG candidate might just win. Hard to see it happening but not totally impossible.
My guess is that the “Independent Group” will not put up a quasi-IG candidate, because
voters would not know what his/her policy views might be (except pro-EU Remain, which is the minority view in Newport West);
there would be little time in which to select a candidate and, because of the disorganized way in which IG has been established (step up, Chuka Umunna…), there are no selection procedures in place;
any IG candidate (in all but name) would be likely to go down in flames, so this is a battle that the IG MPs will probably sidestep.
Update, 4 March 2019
The candidature listing is still open. So far, 6 candidates have declared: Conservative, Labour, Plaid Cymru, Green, and two wild cards, “Renew” and “Abolish the Welsh Assembly”. The obvious non-declarers, so far, are the LibDems, UKIP and anyone adherent to the “Independent Group”. However, as stated, there is still time in which to declare.
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party – Richard Suchorzewski
Renew – June Davies
SDP – Ian McLean
The For Britain Movement – Hugh Nicklin
Democrats and Veterans Party – Phillip Taylor
I see no reason to alter my view of the contest as expressed in the blog.
Update, 30 March 2019
I was just considering to what extent, if any, the meltdown of the House of Commons over and around Brexit will affect this by-election. The obvious protest vote would be for UKIP, which as noted above only scored 2.5% in 2017, though it managed 15.2% at its 2015 peak. Both were 3rd places. To win, UKIP has to beat both main System parties. On paper, that is near-impossible, but we are in interesting times.
The result was that Labour won with nearly 40% of the vote, but less than 38% of those eligible could be bothered to vote. Labour’s candidate was thus endorsed by only about 15% of those eligible.
The Conservatives came a fairly but not very close second. UKIP came third (again). “For Britain Movement” got less than 1% and came right at the bottom of the list of 11 candidates.
Ian Robert Millard 