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Rochdale by-election

The by-election is to be held on Thursday 29 February 2024. It has been described as “the most radioactive byelection in living memory“: see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/24/a-total-total-disaster-galloway-and-danczuk-line-up-for-rochdale-push.

Of the 11 candidates, 4 could be described as Independent. There is a Green, and also a Monster Raving Loony.

Of the 5 more or less serious candidates, the LibLabCon “uniparty” has candidates, and then there is the egregious George Galloway [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Galloway], this time under the banner of the Workers Party, and also Reform UK, represented by Simon Danczuk [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk], the one-time Labour MP who was a perennial tabloid newspaper story 2010-2017 (along with his seemingly lobotomized then wife, Karen).

The by-election is complicated by the fact that Azhar Ali, the Labour candidate on the ballot paper, was suspended and disowned by Labour for having speculated that Israel may have been involved in the attack on its own citizens in October 2023, a “conspiracy theory” which at first blush seems mad, but less mad when you look at it. A possible “Pearl Harbor” scenario, in which the Israeli leadership may have allowed the Hamas attack from Gaza to take place in order to be able to destroy and then resettle Gaza with Jews.

Leaving that aside, Ali is still a candidate and still, on paper, “Labour”. Indeed, it is possible that, despite all the publicity, quite a few voters will remain unaware that Labour has disowned him; they may vote for him on that basis.

Having said that, Ali will not be Labour’s candidate at GE 2024, so even if he were to be elected this Thursday, he would only be an MP for a few months. That will obviously harm his chances.

It comes as a slight shock to see that George Galloway is only two years older than me. I thought about 10 years or more. He is now 69.

Galloway is far and away the most interesting candidate on the by-election roster. You only have to look at his Wikipedia entry. Indeed, apart from sleazy Danczuk, Galloway is the only candidate at Rochdale who is noted on Wikipedia.

Galloway started as a Labour MP, and has travelled through other parties and profiles to get here, but his anti-Zionism has remained a constant.

An ideologue of sorts, Galloway is not exactly on the same ideological page as me (and he blocked me on Twitter when I still had an account, i.e. up to 2018). He is interested in money, though he plays that down. His net worth is probably in the millions —though I concede that that is a guess— and his income from all sources in recent years has on occasion exceeded £500,000 a year. His RT (Russia Today) show has been sunk by sanctions, but his online broadcasting etc must still bring in a very good sum.

The Workers Party of Britain [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers_Party_of_Britain] was founded by Galloway himself in 2019, and so far has had no electoral success, though Galloway himself achieved a notable third place at the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021— nearly 22% of the vote.

Other well-known members of the Workers Party include former Arabist diplomat and ambassador Peter Ford [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Ford_(diplomat)], and former Labour MP Chris Williamson [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Williamson_(politician)], now a broadcaster on the English-language Iranian channel Press TV. Williamson occasionally retweeted my tweets when I had a Twitter account, though he later and foolishly “blocked” me (like Galloway).

Reform UK must be mad to have allowed Danczuk to be their candidate at Rochdale. He was MP for the constituency from 2010 to 2017, and at peak (2015), under Labour banner, was voted for by 46.1% of the voters who voted, but in 2017 achieved only 1.8% as Independent, once chucked out of Labour. Since then, he has been dumped by Karen Danczuk (or vice-versa), and has married for the third time, to an African from Rwanda.

I should have thought that Reform UK would have selected a candidate of real weight at this interesting by-election, but no…

The constituency is riven by division on racial, ethnic, cultural and religious lines. Also, by the aftermath of the Pakistani “grooming gangs” scandal (sex abuse of white English girls). Further back, there was the scandal of Cyril Smith [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Smith].

I rule out as serious contenders the Monster Raving Loony, the 4 Independents, the Green (who, though still on the ballot paper, has also been disowned by his party for “antisemitism”, and has withdrawn), and (probably) Danczuk/Reform UK.

That leaves Galloway/ Workers Party, Azhar Ali/”Labour”, the LibDem and the Conservative.

In the past, pre-2015, Rochdale was contended for by Labour and the LibDems and, before that, the old Liberal Party. The LibDems fell into 4th place in 2015, after the “Con Coalition” of 2010–2015.

There have been fairly good showings by UKIP and Brexit Party in the past decade, but nothing earth-shattering. Reform UK might have done better, but surely not with Danczuk as the candidate. That’s my view, anyway.

Conservative Party candidates achieved (poor) second place in both 2017 and 2019, but this time the Con has almost no chance, so unpopular is the Sunak government. Also, Sunak is Indian. The 30% of the Rochdale voters that are Asian are mostly Pakistani. The Con candidate seems to be English.

The LibDem has a Scottish name; otherwise, I know nothing of him and cannot see him getting anywhere.

While 60%-70% of the eligible voters are English, it is a question of how many are motivated to vote. In 2019, only 60% of eligible Rochdale voters voted, and that was a higher percentage than most previous recent elections. The assumption, at least, is that the Muslim vote is more powerful, as a bloc, than the actually larger English vote.

The upshot is that this is between “Labour” Azhar Ali and Galloway. Galloway must be favourite to win now that Labour has disowned Ali. The bookmakers certainly think so: at present, Galloway/Workers Party 4/7 favourite; Labour 13/8; LibDems 40/1; Reform UK 50/1; Conservatives 200/1; Greens 1,000/1; others also 1,000/1.

See also https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/12/labours-self-sabotage-leaves-rochdale-byelection-up-for-grabs.

Latest from Rochdale

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/rochdale-byelection-chaos-town-voters-main-parties-george-galloway

“Byelections are traditionally a chance for voters to lodge a protest vote. But when the people of Rochdale go to the polls on Thursday, they have barely anyone to protest against.

The Labour and Green parties have ditched their candidates. The Conservative was abroad on a long-planned family holiday the week before polling day. The Lib Dem remains, but pulled out of the most high-profile political event, a local BBC radio debate.

The most energetic campaigning last week came instead from the political fringe: George Galloway, serial byelection winner and founder of the Workers Party of Britain, and Simon Danczuk, the town’s former Labour MP who was suspended by the party for sexting a 17-year-old girl and is now standing for Reform UK.

“We don’t deserve this,” said Margaret King, standing outside Marks & Spencer. “This town does not deserve to be this short of anybody decent to vote for.” This time she’s ­voting for one of the local independents.

“We’ve been Lib Dem for a long time, back to Cyril Smith, but when I think back I can’t believe I voted for him. There’s too many shadows on this town.“

Back in the town centre, people at the Regal Moon were surprised to learn that the Wetherspoons pub was the official headquarters of the Monster Raving Loony party candidate. Some drinkers there raised immigration as an issue, although none considered Reform UK to be an option. “Danczuk has been here before and he didn’t do anything then,” said David Brierley, after complaining how much the town’s ethnic makeup has changed.”

[The Guardian]

A real social-national party might have won this contest.

More from the newspapers

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/labour-must-spend-billions-on-welfare-or-poverty-will-soar

“Labour is being warned by a powerful alliance of thinktanks and charities that poverty will soar if it comes to power and then fails to spend many billions of pounds on welfare reform to help those struggling most with the cost of living.

Poverty and extreme financial hardship have become acute problems,” the new report says. “With wages at a standstill over the last decade, recent soaring prices came at a time when many households were already struggling to meet essential costs. While some have seen their earnings increase in the period since the cost of living crisis started, for many the damage had already been done. Use of foodbanks has reached unprecedented levels, and there has been a sharp rise in households taking out loans to cover bills and daily spending.”

It says that “people on low incomes too often cycle between low-paid, insecure roles and stints of unemployment” with the number of “economically inactive” people (those out of work and not actively looking for work) at record levels. “For too long, our welfare state has taken a punitive approach, ignoring individual motivations and challenges and wasting resources on approaches to that simply don’t work.”

[The Guardian]

Iain Dunce Duncan Smith is only one of the (most) guilty System freeloaders and oppressors of the disabled etc in the UK. He has never been punished.

Tweets seen

I think that my assessment of Therese Coffey, written 5 years ago (updates added since then) has held up well: https://ianrobertmillard.org/2019/09/16/deadhead-mps-an-occasional-series-the-therese-coffey-story/.

Birmingham is or was a major hub of the sinister “Common Purpose” conspiracy, which is implicated in so many scandals, partly because its “graduates” (members) are often unqualified (except on paper) for their executive positions. For example, the shambolic social work and social worker department in Birmingham itself and, as we now see, the Birmingham local government milieu as a whole.

Birmingham is just one particularly egregious example. There are numerous others. The police throughout the UK provide other examples.

“Common Purpose is a global not-for-profit on a mission to develop people who can cross cultural, institutional and social boundaries.” Wherever it takes root, laws and regulations are ignored, and administration becomes chaotic. The very sinister and sleazy Chris Bryant, MP for Rhondda, was once one of its main organizers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Purpose_UK; and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Middleton; and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Bryant.

“Common Purpose (CP)

– a hidden virus in our government and schools

Although it has 80,000 trainees in 36 cities, 18,000 graduate members and enormous power, Common Purpose is largely unknown to the general public.

It recruits and trains “leaders” to be loyal to the directives of Common Purpose and the EU, instead of to their own departments, which they then undermine or subvert, the NHS being an example.

Common Purpose is identifying leaders in all levels of our government to assume power when our nation is replaced by the European Union, in what they call “the post democratic society.” They are learning to rule without regard to democracy, and will bring the EU police state home to every one of us.

Common Purpose is also the glue that enables fraud to be committed across these government departments to reward pro European local politicians. Corrupt deals are enabled that put property or cash into their pockets by embezzling public assets.

It has members in the NHS, BBC, the police, the legal profession, the church, many of Britain’s 7,000 quangos, local councils, the Civil Service, government ministries, Parliament, and it controls many RDA’s (Regional Development Agencies).“

[Wikileaks] [https://wikileaks.org/wiki/Common_purpose]

Written, I think, some years ago, but still worth reading.

More tweets

Walls. Squads.

Neil Oliver says to the corrupt and self-serving MPs, “just go“, but they will not just “go” of their own accord. They will have to be “sent”…

Accurate, but not entirely. Union Street in Plymouth is not really the city centre, though not far away; more a crumbling depressed bit between the main centre and the docks and ferry port (I once commuted to and from Brittany, Plymouth-Roscoff, about once every 10 days, in the years 2005-2009, so I do know Plymouth a bit; and also used to appear quite often as Counsel at the Plymouth County Court).

Plymouth is rife, in its administration, with both freemasonry and “Common Purpose”. A very badly-run city.

That bald vlogger is the one who used to visit out-of-the-way bits of the former Soviet Union. Not sure why he no longer does that. I think that he was removed from Ukraine but am unsure.

I just saw this:

Apart from Plymouth, “Bald and Bankrupt” goes to Weston-super-Mare, a place which I have also visited a few times quite long ago now (I knew a blonde Ukrainian lady who lived there, she having married an older Englishman who then, really not long afterwards, died of a heart attack, leaving her a quite decent detached house in what passes for the best area of the town). That was circa 2000.

I remember Weston-super-Mare mainly for playing tennis on a warm sunny day with the Ukrainian lady (well, just playing around, really), and deliberately hitting her on the rear with a tennis ball when she bent over to pick up another ball, after which she fired half a dozen at me (I dodged them by running away, weaving).

“Bald and Bankrupt” then goes to Birmingham, a city I do not know, and which I have never even seen, except once or twice from a train, or car circling its endless motorways and other roads, and —once— when on a small plane that stopped at the airport to take on fuel etc.

The state of Birmingham shown in the vlog echoes that discussed in those Matt Goodwin and Sunday Times tweets.

“Come, friendly Russian bombers...” (with apologies to John Betjeman…).

“Bald and Bankrupt” then goes, briefly, to Sunderland, a town I have also never visited (though my late father once played professionally for Sunderland football club, sometime around 1946).

He then goes to a semi-derelict former mining village called Hordern, where he meets a man demolishing a 19thC brick wall, the man having moved to this hopeless desolate place from Guildford (Surrey). Why? Why? Apparently because rental of property is cheaper. Even so…People are very strange…

Overall, dystopian, and not a little frightening.

Of course, much, maybe most, of England, or Britain, is not like those places. Not yet, anyway.

More tweets

The lady may be a fan of “Detective Sergeant Hathaway” in Lewis. Politically, Fox may mean well, but has not the ideological or intellectual weight to lead a new party, in my view. Also, pro-Israel, pro-Jewish lobby etc, so a non–starter as far as I am concerned.

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