Afternoon music
Tweets seen
[“Labour should rebrand the party to something else, because there’s nothing about Labour’s core values left. It’s a Frankenstein government that has no empathy, compassion, or anything that’s good. #LabourLies #LabourAreDangerous #nastyparty #thenastyparty #DisabilityBenefits“]
Not so much a Labour government, more a Labour Friends of Israel government…
Translates to a Commons with 186 Lab, 177 Reform, 163 Con, 65 LibDem (etc). i.e. a likely Reform-Con coalition, but with Reform in the driving seat.
Runcorn and Helsby by-election
As most readers will be aware, a by-election is upcoming at Runcorn and Helsby, in the part of the North East known to many as “Murkyside” (Merseyside). The New Statesman analysis seems to cover the ground: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/03/a-reform-labour-showdown-looms-in-the-runcorn-by-election.
The former MP, unimpressive Labourite drone Mike Amesbury, stepped down a few days ago, having been convicted of common assault and sentenced to 10 weeks in prison. He had drunkenly assaulted a complaining constituent in the street one evening.
The sentencing judge (district judge/magistrate) expressly refused bail pending appeal, so Amesbury was hauled off to prison briefly before, a couple of days later, having his bail application and appeal very expeditiously heard, his sentence then having been suspended. He does, however, have to do 200 hours of unpaid work; the imprisonment, unpleasant though it would be, might have been less onerous; also, the “10 weeks” would actually have been only 4 weeks long. Still, few would choose the imprisonment (given that choice).
Amesbury, to give him his due, could have simply put one or two fingers up to Labour (which has suspended him) and society, and carried on as an independent MP for the next 4 or so years (though a recall petition might have forced him out later this year). Instead, he decided to step down. I have to admit that I would not have done so, were I in his place.
Amesbury has at least one other thing in his favour— he supports proportional representation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Amesbury.
As to the by-election, Labour won easily in 2024, but that was then; its 52.9% of the vote is not going to be replicated in the by-election. In the opinion polls about the by-election, Labour is only a point or two ahead of Reform UK (in the 30%-33% zone), with the Conservative Party on 20%, a few points higher than in 2024 (perhaps surprisingly).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runcorn_and_Helsby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
The “experts” mostly think Labour will win the by-election, though the bookmakers (often unreliable guides in political betting) think Reform has the better chance.
My own view is that only dummies would vote “Labour” (aka Labour Friends of Israel Con-lite) now, after the disastrous past 8 months. Still, there are plenty of dummies out there…
The Conservative Party only scored 16% in 2024, and has no real chance in the by-election, so if Con voters want to stick it to Labour and Starmer-stein, then the obvious thing to do is to vote Reform. As I said, though, the UK is not short of dummies. Time and again we see voters march out to vote for parties that have no chance in a given seat.
Reform itself has been damaged by the recent infighting, perhaps, but the anger and frustration of many voters should not be underestimated. People wanted rid of the 14 years of “Conservative” misrule, only to find that, by reason of a semi-rigged FPTP electoral system, they are now misgoverned by a “Labour” regime even worse (and even less compassionate) than its Con predecessors.
On that basis, I think that Reform has a good chance, a very good chance.
More tweets
[“Russian troops have liberated five localities in the Kursk Region over the past day, the Defense Ministry said. TASS has gathered key updates on the situation: https://vk.cc/cJDTgt“— TASS]
[“Russian troops liberated two communities in the Donetsk region over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported: https://vk.cc/cJDU4u“— TASS]
That idiot in the Mad Hatter top hat was impeding the traffic in Whitehall years ago, as I noted on the blog at the time:
I hope that the voters of Runcorn and Helsby protest at least by voting Reform, not because I like Reform that much, but because I despise the LibLabCon System parties. Anyway, the only party capable of beating Labour in that seat at this time is Reform.
True. Whatever his flaws, Farage has the name recognition and face-recognition which Lowe and the others in, or recently in, Reform just do not have.
[“Vladimir Putin has held a meeting at a command post of the Kursk group of forces, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: https://vk.cc/cJEDS8“— TASS]
[“Vladimir Putin has set the task to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kursk Region as soon as possible: https://vk.cc/cJEFHz“— TASS]
[“The Russian army needs to defeat the Ukrainian army in the Kursk Region as soon as possible and establish a regional security zone, Putin said during a visit to a command post of Battlegroup Kursk, where he listened to a report by Army General Gerasimov: https://vk.cc/cJEGax“— TASS]
Late music
Ian Robert Millard 